Mets sign Juan Soto for 15 year, 765M (no deferrals, opt-out after 5 which can be voided by Mets for +40M)

tonypenasgascloud

New Member
Oct 8, 2024
11
That’s okay, I don’t need to begin a discussion over your Mrs. Jones from Little Rock. Your original framing was this, by the by; “…. is in the top 0.0001% in the world at what he does, and is paid accordingly just like the elite in any other profession.”

The point is and was, that there are people who are just as elite at what they do, arguably more impactfully so, than Mr. Soto, but because of the oversized appetite for distraction, are not justly compensated for their expertise.

You don’t need to earnestly explain your point — it’s made with dismaying clarity without any effort at all every hour of every day.
You said "teachers". That's plural. Therefore, your argument applies to the entire profession, not just the top earner, making your statement invalid. And how many of those elite are generating as much revenue as Soto?
You don't need to be a condescending dick just because I disproved your statement with Supply And Demand Economics 101.
 
Last edited:

SemperFidelisSox

Member
SoSH Member
May 25, 2008
34,237
Boston, MA
This might have been another thread, but I can't believe Mets reporters are saying the Mets were basically a non-factor earlier Sunday. That's absurd.

I guess they instructed Boras to come to them last with the best offer (which Red Sox tried to sniff out), but lol. Maybe Cohen is spreading that exaggeration of the situation to try to stick it to the Yanks more.
Yeah, it was Andy Martino. The Mets were “dead in the water” at 3pm yesterday and then it picked up.
 

tonypenasgascloud

New Member
Oct 8, 2024
11
I wrote my thesis in economics on the labor market of baseball. The "distortion" is frankly damn close to an economic equilibrium, so I'm not sure you're going to see much success there. Yes pre-arb guys should probably see a bit of a bump, but the truth of the matter is that there's really a very narrow band of wins that actually drives revenue for teams (the big ones are the playoff contending wins, basically mid 80s to mid 90s, with lesser but not negligible returns from the low 70s to mid 80s), but wins up until around #70 have effectively no impact on revenue. Hell, the first 48 wins are replacement level (literally no marginal production at all). The contract system the MLB has, bizarre as it is, does at least approach some level of economic equilibrium with it's equally bizarre revenue structure.


From an economics perspective, it's hard to argue player salaries are paid by these contracts because there is no marginal revenue of their individual production reflected in them. Those contracts are a function of market size (for local rights) and sportswide appeal (for national rights), individual players don't move a needle except in truly exceptional circumstances (e.g. Ohtani and Japanese viewers). From an economic viewpoint, players should be paid the value of their marginal contribution to revenue, so these kinds of set revenues are almost impossible to assign to any given player.


This is exactly where marginal contributions to revenue can be tracked. More wins=more fans in seats=more tickets sold=more concessions sold=more revenue.


This is another revenue source that's not really attributable to any given player. That said, it has no effect on keeping prices down. Prices are set purely by supply and demand, which are market and team driven.
We're saying the same thing in a different way. The OP made his statement in the context of a Soto thread, implying that large salaries are responsible for his complaints. They're not.
 

Tokyo Sox

Baka Gaijin
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Feb 16, 2006
6,452
There
You said "teachers". That's plural. Therefore, your argument applies to the entire profession, not just the top earner, making your statement invalid.
You don't need to be a condescending dick just because I disproved your statement with Supply And Demand Economics 101.
Guy. Take a breath. Maybe re-read the exchange?

He wasn't being condescending, and your grammar and logic both need work.
 

catomatic

thinks gen turgidson is super mean!!!
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
3,730
Park Slope, Brooklyn
You said "teachers". That's plural. Therefore, your argument applies to the entire profession, not just the top earner, making your statement invalid.
You don't need to be a condescending dick just because I disproved your statement with Supply And Demand Economics 101.
You sure showed me.
A grasp of semantics so compelling as to make Bill Clinton blush.
You should be proud—seems you've turned yourself into a lovely, gleaming abacus.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

Found no thrill on Blueberry Hill
SoSH Member
Sep 9, 2008
44,190
AZ
I’m really curious how the buy out of the opt out works.

Like who has to declare first. Does Soto have to exercise it first, and then the Mets get to decide if they want to keep him? Or do the Mets have to go first and potentially pay another $40 million, without even knowing if Soto will opt out?

Probably academic. He ain’t opting out, and they probably will be praying he will.
 

tonypenasgascloud

New Member
Oct 8, 2024
11
Guy. Take a breath. Maybe re-read the exchange?

He wasn't being condescending, and your grammar and logic both need work.
He's saying that millions of teachers should be paid more than a tiny handful of elite athletes (which is economically impossible), yet my logic is flawed? Ok.
This is spinning away from baseball quickly.
 

tonypenasgascloud

New Member
Oct 8, 2024
11
You sure showed me.
A grasp of semantics so compelling as to make Bill Clinton blush.
You should be proud—seems you've turned yourself into a lovely, gleaming abacus.
Only surpassed by your lack of economics comprehension.
If your "alarming clarity" statement applies to the world in general, then as much as I disagree with it, I apologize because I thought you were referring to me. If you were referring to me, then yeah, my barb stands.
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
49,611
I’m really curious how the buy out of the opt out works.

Like who has to declare first. Does Soto have to exercise it first, and then the Mets get to decide if they want to keep him? Or do the Mets have to go first and potentially pay another $40 million, without even knowing if Soto will opt out?

Probably academic. He ain’t opting out, and they probably will be praying he will.
I think he has to opt out first and then the Mets would have the ability to cancel it by escalating the salary and I would assume there is a firm date they would have to do that by before he becomes a FA again.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
74,936
I think he has to opt out first and then the Mets would have the ability to cancel it by escalating the salary and I would assume there is a firm date they would have to do that by before he becomes a FA again.
Yep, a bigger version of the one Cole just had.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

Found no thrill on Blueberry Hill
SoSH Member
Sep 9, 2008
44,190
AZ
I think he has to opt out first and then the Mets would have the ability to cancel it by escalating the salary and I would assume there is a firm date they would have to do that by before he becomes a FA again.
Yep, a bigger version of the one Cole just had.
Makes sense and what I figured. It’s funner the other way.

Does the fact that a team just retained an option to cancel an opt out for $40 million finally put to bed the question whether opt outs are good for teams?
 

InstaFace

The Ultimate One
SoSH Member
Sep 27, 2016
24,559
Pittsburgh, PA
That’s okay, I don’t need to begin a discussion over your Mrs. Jones from Little Rock. Your original framing was this, by the by; “…. is in the top 0.0001% in the world at what he does, and is paid accordingly just like the elite in any other profession.”

The point is and was, that there are people who are just as elite at what they do, arguably more impactfully so, than Mr. Soto, but because of the oversized appetite for distraction, are not justly compensated for their expertise.
"Justly"? This whole concern about "justice" misses how these contracts come to be in the first place.

In any entertainment business, the talent (actors, musicians, athletes) is the product. They're not behind the scenes making the product happen. They "are the product" in a very real sense, because their headshots are on every banner and ad, their names are on the fans' merch that they're buying, they're the names being discussed and signed and whatnot.

And in the entertainment business, like most sales roles, you eat what you kill. Meaning, your take is proportional to the marginal revenue you drive. If you're a movie star and your flick flops, you're probably not making much money - typically, you'd have an equity stake or at least a profits interest in the production. If it does well, so do you. But because you're in a position to affect how much people are paying to see it, you're typically compensated proportionally.

Neither of those are true for the proverbial teachers. The best teacher in the world is not driving more marginal revenue to the school district in which they teach, which is of course set by tax rates. Also, nobody is choosing to go to a school for a particular teacher, at least not in primary / secondary education. Now, that's not true for graduate programs, but that's a very different case, and prominent / famous university professors can in fact make bank. Maybe not Juan Soto money, but millions a year when including all sources of income. But your middle school social studies teacher? Marginal economic value is indistinguishable from zero, sadly. Best police officer in the country? Zero marginal economic returns, zero ability to claim a share of them.

Now, I'm glad I live in a world where the quality of teaching is not dependent on me being willing to pay the highest price for it, in some sort of auction manner. Not much more than 100 years ago, only the rich could afford good education, and today that's not true. But one of the prices of that change is that great teachers can't command their salaries, either. That will never happen in the entertainment business, but that's because of the fundamental nature of the industry, not for some character flaw in the populace at large.
 

catomatic

thinks gen turgidson is super mean!!!
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
3,730
Park Slope, Brooklyn
"Justly"? This whole concern about "justice" misses how these contracts come to be in the first place.

In any entertainment business, the talent (actors, musicians, athletes) is the product. They're not behind the scenes making the product happen. They "are the product" in a very real sense, because their headshots are on every banner and ad, their names are on the fans' merch that they're buying, they're the names being discussed and signed and whatnot.

And in the entertainment business, like most sales roles, you eat what you kill. Meaning, your take is proportional to the marginal revenue you drive. If you're a movie star and your flick flops, you're probably not making much money - typically, you'd have an equity stake or at least a profits interest in the production. If it does well, so do you. But because you're in a position to affect how much people are paying to see it, you're typically compensated proportionally.

Neither of those are true for the proverbial teachers. The best teacher in the world is not driving more marginal revenue to the school district in which they teach, which is of course set by tax rates. Also, nobody is choosing to go to a school for a particular teacher, at least not in primary / secondary education. Now, that's not true for graduate programs, but that's a very different case, and prominent / famous university professors can in fact make bank. Maybe not Juan Soto money, but millions a year when including all sources of income. But your middle school social studies teacher? Marginal economic value is indistinguishable from zero, sadly. Best police officer in the country? Zero marginal economic returns, zero ability to claim a share of them.

Now, I'm glad I live in a world where the quality of teaching is not dependent on me being willing to pay the highest price for it, in some sort of auction manner. Not much more than 100 years ago, only the rich could afford good education, and today that's not true. But one of the prices of that change is that great teachers can't command their salaries, either. That will never happen in the entertainment business, but that's because of the fundamental nature of the industry, not for some character flaw in the populace at large.
You’re telling an actor how his business works.

The “justly” comment might just imply that the writer does not have faith in market-based value assignments.

If you’d caught that implication, you could have spared yourself a wasted effort.

Read Polanyi’s “The Great Transformation” for the counterargument to the almighty gospels of supply and demand.
 

InstaFace

The Ultimate One
SoSH Member
Sep 27, 2016
24,559
Pittsburgh, PA
The “justly” comment might just imply that the writer does not have faith in market-based value assignments.

If you’d caught that implication, you could have spared yourself a wasted effort.

Read Polanyi’s “The Great Transformation” for the counterargument to the almighty gospels of supply and demand.
I mean, there's moral value and then there's economic value. If you want to argue that the moral / social value of teaching (or <insert profession here>) exceeds that of entertainers, wax on. This may not be the thread for it, but I'm sympathetic to that argument.

But we're in here talking about why people are paid X vs Y, in dollar terms, and not in the realm of the "should be" or moral weight. So you could perhaps forgive an argument that's grounded in economics to explain just that.

Anyone who's been in the business world any meaningful length of time knows a few things about financial valuation (of salaries, of businesses, of houses, whatever), chief among them that they are arrived at not by universally-understood formula, but rather by both sides' relative bargaining power, the size of the pie, their varying and conflicting motivations, and no small amount of whimsy and emotion. One doesn't need "faith" in the outcomes of that process, any more than one ought to have "faith" in any other matters of human endeavor. But they are still knowable or estimable within certain error bars representing a negotiable range, and justifiable on various economic principles.

And that holds for compensation of elite entertainers vs the elite in other professions. There are some fields where if you're among the elite at what you do, you can make a killing. There are a number of fields where you cannot, no matter how good you are. Those lists are not limited to entertainment and teaching, not by any means. But the sorting of professions into the two groups does more or less follow the "you eat what you kill" principle, and that was the core of my response to you. Faith is not required. But as long as we're in the realm of "why is the world the way that it is?" rather than "what should be, ideally?", I think that ought to be justification enough.
 

catomatic

thinks gen turgidson is super mean!!!
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
3,730
Park Slope, Brooklyn
I’ve read scores of your posts on this forum and nearly always been impressed with your intellect and engagement — how is it you failed to pick up on the fact that the original reaction; “Yeah, like teachers.” was no more than a gimlet-eyed joke? The other dude went hammer and tongs into market value economics, as well.

Does fealty to the fundamentals of capitalism result in the atrophy of all non-literal capacities including humor? By Jesu, you guys, lighten up. It’s not a controversial assertion even if it wasn’t a joke. If Juan Soto eclipses in influence your child’s pretty excellent middle school English teacher, y’all are doing this thing wrong.
 

InstaFace

The Ultimate One
SoSH Member
Sep 27, 2016
24,559
Pittsburgh, PA
Does fealty to the fundamentals of capitalism result in the atrophy of all non-literal capacities including humor?
There might be something to this... :unsure:

...that said:
If Juan Soto eclipses in influence your child’s pretty excellent middle school English teacher, y’all are doing this thing wrong.
I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss the influence potential of baseball players upon young people... on a message board composed of people who were influenced from a young age to closely follow baseball players - possibly including yourself!

Maybe we need more ballplayers pinch hitting in the classroom. But I'll leave it there, as we're all entitled an undisturbed rant from time to time, and I'm well afield of the thread anyway.
 

catomatic

thinks gen turgidson is super mean!!!
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
3,730
Park Slope, Brooklyn
There might be something to this... :unsure:

...that said:

I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss the influence potential of baseball players upon young people... on a message board composed of people who were influenced from a young age to closely follow baseball players - possibly including yourself!

Maybe we need more ballplayers pinch hitting in the classroom. But I'll leave it there, as we're all entitled an undisturbed rant from time to time, and I'm well afield of the thread anyway.
Good Teachers can take up residence in your life’s navigational system, can become voices in your critical thinking apparatus, can add to the candlepower of your love for the world.

Bobby Orr was a hero. Fisk and Spaceman were heroes. But they never guided or enriched like a good teacher could. They embodied no transmittable system of values like a teacher 15’ away for an hour every day, 180 days a year, or whatever it is. ;-)
 

Wingack

secret Sox fan
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
36,248
In The Quivering Forest

EvilEmpire

paying for his sins
Moderator
SoSH Member
Apr 9, 2007
18,208
Washington
That would be something if Soto let himself go after getting a monster payday.
Of course it won't happen, but losing just a little bit of athleticism will make his work in the OF more exciting.
 

Lose Remerswaal

Experiencing Furry Panic
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member

Remagellan

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
That would be something if Soto let himself go after getting a monster payday.
Of course it won't happen, but losing just a little bit of athleticism will make his work in the OF more exciting.
We used to have a guy from the DR who was known for enjoying his rice and beans a little too much. I don't recall you guys finding the thought of him at the plate all that appetizing. I wouldn't be too worried if I were a Mets fan.
 

Jace II

no rules
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
1,206
We used to have a guy from the DR who was known for enjoying his rice and beans a little too much. I don't recall you guys finding the thought of him at the plate all that appetizing. I wouldn't be too worried if I were a Mets fan.
I don't think it's his hitting skills anyone would be concerned with deteriorating.
 

Remagellan

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
I don't think it's his hitting skills anyone would be concerned with deteriorating.
But in his case, that's all that matters. I've heard him referred to as a "young Ted Williams", and Teddy Ballgame wasn't exactly prized for his defense either.

And I know it would be a lot if he winds up a DH sooner rather than later. But nobody has a problem with how much Ohtani is getting paid, and until he takes the mound again and shows if he can still pitch at a high level AND avoid injury, that's all he is. I'm sure the Mets are already planning Soto's transition to first base and then DH over the course of the contract.
 

Jace II

no rules
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
1,206
But in his case, that's all that matters. I've heard him referred to as a "young Ted Williams", and Teddy Ballgame wasn't exactly prized for his defense either.

And I know it would be a lot if he winds up a DH sooner rather than later. But nobody has a problem with how much Ohtani is getting paid, and until he takes the mound again and shows if he can still pitch at a high level AND avoid injury, that's all he is. I'm sure the Mets are already planning Soto's transition to first base and then DH over the course of the contract.
Hitting is not all that matters, it's most of it. Fangraphs had Ohtani at -17.2 runs below average value defensively in 2024 due to his DH'ing adjustment, while Soto was a -6.1 due to RF adjustment + his fielding value. So if Soto goes full time DH or disaster in OF, his value is diminished by a non-trivial amount. Soto's also a bad baserunner who stands to potentially get worse over time.

Soto is also paid more than Ohtani (in present day $) AND for 6 years longer, and has no opportunity to add value via pitching (while Ohtani will probably add at least some there, while he also contributes a lot on the basepaths), so I don't know how close that comp is. Ohtani just has more upside.

Nobody is saying Soto isn't going to be awesome. He just has some downside risk on the defensive side, which was always part of the consideration with his contract.
 

LeoCarrillo

Do his bits at your peril
SoSH Member
Oct 13, 2008
11,290
Good Teachers can take up residence in your life’s navigational system, can become voices in your critical thinking apparatus, can add to the candlepower of your love for the world.

Bobby Orr was a hero. Fisk and Spaceman were heroes. But they never guided or enriched like a good teacher could. They embodied no transmittable system of values like a teacher 15’ away for an hour every day, 180 days a year, or whatever it is. ;-)
True. And I can imagine a history or literature teacher exploring the motivations and actions of historical people and characters in books to serve as role models to, say, a 12 or 15 or 18 year old student. But for those of us who didn’t happen to draw such teachers, it was repeated viewings of movies on TV or VHS tapes and the great characters and their actions and choices who informed navigation systems. At least mine. And specifically those in the anti-establishment films of the ‘70s such as Lucas Jackson in Cool Hand Luke or Randle McMurphy in Cuckoo’s Nest, who refused to be broken by the institutions, refused to surrender their free will. Even to their death. Heroes known to a few, but whose actions liberated those few, kept lit the flame of freedom. Hence the scenes after their departures (Cuckoo’s Nest before his death but after his exit) in which the previously controlled and broken group of inmates or psych-ward patients are seen transformed and full of life, talking spiritedly about the legendary exploits of Luke or Harding emulating McMurphy’s flair while dealing cards.

But above all, the scene and character and moment I love most from that era was Hilts just going to get his baseball* in the blind spot between two guard towers in The Great Escape. And then, once spotted, starting to give his planned excuse to a guard that he was just innocently getting his baseball, and then a more senior guard arrives and again he says he was just getting his baseb— And then the kommandant arrives and he starts the same excuse yet again and midsentence thinks fuck this and says he was trying to cut through the fence because he wants to go home. Which wasn’t even true. Then he produces an unknown set of snips from inside his coat, flipping em playfully in his hand and handing them to the kommandant. Beyond refusing to surrender control over his own destiny (just as neither do all the POWs who’ll later take place in the escape), Hilts isn’t even gonna let others determine the specifics of his captivity. He’d rather take double the time in the cooler if it’s by his own volition, his own free will.

*This post is about baseball. Kinda.
 
Last edited:

OCD SS

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Lots of comments out there about Juan Soto instantly turning into Daniel Vogelbach on X today:

View: https://twitter.com/Real_RGS/status/1867358059989020762


View: https://twitter.com/SNY_Mets/status/1867306084941066661


View: https://twitter.com/plsgetmeaqb1/status/1867303864757629132


I am sure he will be shredded by Spring Training, but my Met fan friends couldn't help but be a tiny bit worried about it. They are Met fans after all.
That would be something if Soto let himself go after getting a monster payday.
Of course it won't happen, but losing just a little bit of athleticism will make his work in the OF more exciting.
Do you recall the photos of Edgar Renteria poolside after signing with the Red Sox?
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
74,936
Hitting is not all that matters, it's most of it. Fangraphs had Ohtani at -17.2 runs below average value defensively in 2024 due to his DH'ing adjustment, while Soto was a -6.1 due to RF adjustment + his fielding value. So if Soto goes full time DH or disaster in OF, his value is diminished by a non-trivial amount. Soto's also a bad baserunner who stands to potentially get worse over time.

Soto is also paid more than Ohtani (in present day $) AND for 6 years longer, and has no opportunity to add value via pitching (while Ohtani will probably add at least some there, while he also contributes a lot on the basepaths), so I don't know how close that comp is. Ohtani just has more upside.

Nobody is saying Soto isn't going to be awesome. He just has some downside risk on the defensive side, which was always part of the consideration with his contract.
The scary thing for non-Mets fans with Soto is that we just saw Ohtani and Judge have their best hitting seasons at ages 30 and 32 respectively, it's possible one or both of them is still getting better. Soto is still 26 and just had his best season also, what if he keeps getting better for the next 6-8 years from here and doesn't start the slow decline until after that? Julio Franco got 106 PAs when he was 48, he had his best season at 35 and still had a .818 OPS when he was 45 (361 PAs).

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/francju01.shtml
 

radsoxfan

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 9, 2009
14,836
That would be something if Soto let himself go after getting a monster payday.
Of course it won't happen, but losing just a little bit of athleticism will make his work in the OF more exciting.
Not a great look for Soto is it?

Fat Soto or not, I think a lot of teams are going to be quite happy their 700+M offers didn't get accepted when this is all said and done.
 

Ale Xander

Hamilton
SoSH Member
Oct 31, 2013
82,004
What was Prince Fielder’s weight in 2007-2009?

Didn’t seem to bother his hitting and he missed a total of 1 game in his 25-29 yo seasons
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
74,936
What was Prince Fielder’s weight in 2007-2009?

Didn’t seem to bother his hitting and he missed a total of 1 game in his 25-29 yo seasons
And then he was done, Soto is signed until he is 41 and is an OF at least for now, not a 1B. How could you think that’s a positive example?

Ortiz is a way better example, but he wasn’t trying to play RF.
 

EvilEmpire

paying for his sins
Moderator
SoSH Member
Apr 9, 2007
18,208
Washington
Yeah, I don't think anyone said anything about his hitting. He's adequate in RF. Great arm, but not much else. I think he's too young, too expensive, and that contract is too long for him to be DHing sooner rather later.

He's a special talent and good for the game. I hope he figures it out.
 

Ale Xander

Hamilton
SoSH Member
Oct 31, 2013
82,004
And then he was done, Soto is signed until he is 41 and is an OF at least for now, not a 1B. How could you think that’s a positive example?

Ortiz is a way better example, but he wasn’t trying to play RF.
Also had a great 31 yo season

Just saying that his midsection issue is being overblown
 

catomatic

thinks gen turgidson is super mean!!!
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
3,730
Park Slope, Brooklyn
True. And I can imagine a history or literature teacher exploring the motivations and actions of historical people and characters in books to serve as role models to, say, a 12 or 15 or 18 year old student. But for those of us who didn’t happen to draw such teachers, it was repeated viewings of movies on TV or VHS tapes and the great characters and their actions and choices who informed navigation systems. At least mine. And specifically those in the anti-establishment films of the ‘70s such as Lucas Jackson in Cool Hand Luke or Randle McMurphy in Cuckoo’s Nest, who refused to be broken by the institutions, refused to surrender their free will. Even to their death. Heroes known to a few, but whose actions liberated those few, kept lit the flame of freedom. Hence the scenes after their departures (Cuckoo’s Nest before his death but after his exit) in which the previously controlled and broken group of inmates or psych-ward patients are seen transformed and full of life, talking spiritedly about the legendary exploits of Luke or Harding emulating McMurphy’s flair while dealing cards.

But above all, the scene and character and moment I love most from that era was Hilts just going to get his baseball* in the blind spot between two guard towers in The Great Escape. And then, once spotted, starting to give his planned excuse to a guard that he was just innocently getting his baseball, and then a more senior guard arrives and again he says he was just getting his baseb— And then the kommandant arrives and he starts the same excuse yet again and midsentence thinks fuck this and says he was trying to cut through the fence because he wants to go home. Which wasn’t even true. Then he produces an unknown set of snips from inside his coat, flipping em playfully in his hand and handing them to the kommandant. Beyond refusing to surrender control over his own destiny (just as neither do all the POWs who’ll later take place in the escape), Hilts isn’t even gonna let others determine the specifics of his captivity. He’d rather take double the time in the cooler if it’s by his own volition, his own free will.

*This post is about baseball. Kinda.
Absolutely. And if you’d read enough Vonnegut, Bradbury and Updike at a too tender age, you never doubted for a second that the system was rotten to the core. “Papillon” deserves a place in that list to, n’est-ce pas?
 

Yo La Tengo

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 21, 2005
1,318
Apologies if this has been discussed elsewhere, but, are we sure that Juan Soto is a better player than Kyle Tucker?

Tucker is ~22 months older (28 v 26 years old).

Fielding Bible:
2024- Tucker at +7 DRS v. -1 for Soto
2023- Tucker at +2 and Soto at -5 (in LF) in 2023.
2022- Tucker at +15 and Soto at -2 (in RF)
2021- Both at +6

So, +25 for Tucker and -2 for Soto over the last 4 years.

Tucker appears to be a better base runner too, with 46 more stolen bases over the last four seasons in 100 less games.

Last 4 seasons, Soto on the left and Tucker on the right:

93305

93307
 
Last edited:

simplicio

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 11, 2012
9,704
I mean yes, we're sure. It's not really a question unless you're Circa Sports Illinois and trying to find the most favorable points of comparison.
 

LogansDad

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 15, 2006
33,034
Alamogordo
Apologies if this has been discussed elsewhere, but, are we sure that Juan Soto is a better player than Kyle Tucker?

Tucker is ~22 months older (28 v 26 years old).

Fielding Bible:
2024- Tucker at +7 DRS v. -1 for Soto
2023- Tucker at +2 and Soto at -5 (in LF) in 2023.
2022- Tucker at +15 and Soto at -2 (in RF)
2021- Both at +6

So, +25 for Tucker and -2 for Soto over the last 4 years.

Tucker appears to be a better base runner too, with 46 more stolen bases over the last four seasons in 100 less games.

Last 4 seasons, Soto on the left and Tucker on the right:

View attachment 93305

View attachment 93307
I think it is a more interesting question than many people (especially Mets fans) want to ponder after what we just put ourselves through.

I think Tucker is obviously a more "complete package", with defense and baserunning, but I feel like he is the kind of player whose value is tied into being able to do everything very well, and if even one of those tools drops off he becomes a much lesser player.

I also still believe (maybe wrongly) that the most important thing an offensive player can do is to not make an out. Since 2021, Juan Soto is the best player in the game at that, and the only other player who even comes close is Aaron Judge. Soto's worst season, in which he struggled pretty badly after being traded across the country as a 23 year old to an extreme pitcher's park (and division, really), would be the second best season of OBP of Tucker's career (and is only .006 points off of surpassing that).

I think, gun to my head, if you asked me which player I prefer over the next 3 seasons, I would probably lean Tucker. But if we are talking 8-15 year contracts, I definitely lean Soto.

But it isn't by a ton.
 

Yo La Tengo

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 21, 2005
1,318
I mean yes, we're sure. It's not really a question unless you're Circa Sports Illinois and trying to find the most favorable points of comparison.
The most favorable points of comparison for Tucker would be defensive stats and that the offensive distinction between the two players is almost entirely based on Soto's extremely high walk rate.