Yeah, you're right. It's 4 games so it can probably be chalked up to randomness. Weird, though. When you add on the 2023 numbers it gets extra weird.
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May: Red Sox discussion, observations and trend tracking...AKA It's not all about the Benjamins
- Thread starter YTF
- Start date
My guess is that it’s just a random thing and doesn’t really mean much of anything- but it’s still frustrating af. The team’s inability to play well at home is hard to figure out and somewhat abnormal, yet probably not really meaningful or predictive.
There probably is an answer of sorts lurking in how the teams of the last few years are constructed. For whatever reason they're just not 'built for Fenway', it seems.
Kinda depends on how you define "built for Fenway" because the home struggles have not exactly been consistent from season to season. I would think that if it was a specific personnel or roster construction issue, the problem would be consistent across seasons.
The offense seems to be the root of the problem at home this year but it wasn't last year.
Offense
2024 = .745 OPS, 4.88 R/G on the road; .693 OPS, 3.96 R/G at home
2023 = .700 OPS, 4.49 R/G on the road; .797 OPS, 5.04 R/G at home
Whereas the pitching/run prevention is better across the board this year but still better on the road (makes sense since Fenway is extremely hitter friendly).
Defense/Pitching
2024 = 4.54 runs allowed per game at home vs 3.11 runs allowed per game on the road
2023 = 5.11 runs allowed per game at home vs 4.47 runs allowed per game on the road
If you're scoring 5 runs a game, you should win games as long as your pitching is average (and 4.5 runs allowed per game is about average). When you're scoring 4 runs a game, you're not going to win a lot regardless of the ballpark.
IIRC, one of the things that was explicitly brought up by Cora (either last year, in the off-season, or during ST this year) was that the team wasn't "taking advantage" of Fenway in the offensive sense. I had thought that would result in seeing more wall-balls, or more line-drives and less HRs/flies to right. But not so far this year: https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/split.cgi?t=b&team=BOS&year=2024#plats
So perhaps part of the initial Fenway game let-downs is trying to compensate/change an approach?
Looking quickly (rough numbers) at the hitters with significant ABs:
Duran +.130 OPS points at home.
Raffela +.150 away. (.491 OPS Fenway)
Raffy +.225 away. (.774 Fenway)
O'Neil +.070 away.
Wyler +.035 away.
Wong +.070 away.
Reese +.500 away. (.380 Fenway)
Refsnyder +.600 away. (.610 Fenway)
Hamilton +.600 away. (.512 Fenway)
Smith +.120 home.
Cooper + .200 home.
You may want to double-check my math there. Regardless, there's a general trend of hitting better away from Fenway. The swingiest guys (or the guys whose swings move them from "OK" to "useless" at Fenway) are a mix of RHH and LHH, rookies and vets.
It's just surprising to see so many hitters grossly penalized in a hitter's park they have every incentive to milk.
To sort of riff off this "building for Fenway" is (IMO) a kind of narrow band. The monster is said to favor RHH with good contact skills who can knock the ball off the monster. Meanwhile LHHs have to have plus power to get the ball out in Fenway's RF, otherwise they're better off hitting line drives as the RF has more ground to cover.
Bill Mueller would be the prototypical Fenway hitter everyone cites. Moderate power everywhere else in his career, then he gooses his doubles numbers with Boston to 45 (plus goosing homers to 19) on his way to a batting crown. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/muellbi02.shtml
So was Mueller a Fenway hitter? In 2003, only narrowly so. He OPS'd .969 at Fenway, and .903 away. Fenway certainly got him the batting crown as his BA was .040 higher at home (plus he walked more and struck out less.) But interestingly his slugging was pretty even, .549 at home to .530 away. And there, he traded 2B for HRs. Fenway: 31 2B, 6 HR. Away: 14 2B, 13 RHs.
And here's the thing I think gets missed in collective folk memory. . .(fun fact) he batted more often as a LHH. Consequently, his greatest number of doubles were against RHH at Fenway - 24 2Bs. And 19 of those 24 were to LF as a LHH.
So it's really not as simple as the old saw has it. You want guys who can reach out and use the monster, whether they're LHH or RHH.
FWIW, three of their four homestands have been preceeded by a day off. Those off-days followed flights back from Anaheim, Atlanta, and Tampa. The one homestand not preceded by an off-day started after a flight home from Cleveland. I'm not sure lack of rest is likely to be to blame.
Jetlag or not, a 2-15 record across any random 17 games at home is unacceptable, let alone games that set a tone for a homestand.
You're right, it's totally unacceptable. But I tend to view it through the lens of the 2022-2024 Red Sox being definitively mediocre teams, which makes their results tend to appear extremely random and weird and erratic, while constantly hovering around the .500 mark.
They are mediocre team doing mediocre things. Not sure it’s any more complicated than that. Some times things look good, some times they don’t:
There's a lot of truth to this, but they seem so listless in so many of the losses. You can find something good to take away from a hard fought loss, but it seems that so few of the losses fall into that category.
Somehow the Sox are only 9th in strength of schedule so far, but also 5th in SOS remaining. WTF?
They haven't yet played the Yankees (13 games), Phillies (3), or Dodgers (3) and those three have the best records in baseball. That might have something to do with it.
Sure but the real story is that there's a soft spot in MLB that the Sox won't ever get to take advantage of. Am guessing nobody else in the division will either. Anyway Brewers-Orioles weekend is not cool.
The schedule the rest of the way isn't really terrible.
They've played 15 of 50 games vs teams that are 5 or more over and played dreadfully against them (3-12) and 13 of 41 vs teams 5 or more under and played great against them (9-3). They are 15-11 vs all other teams with 71 remaining which I find more interesting than the first two.
I expect they'll play a bit better vs the iron (12 and 23 would be fine) and worse vs the dreck (17 and 11?). .500 vs the rest and they are right there.
They've played 15 of 50 games vs teams that are 5 or more over and played dreadfully against them (3-12) and 13 of 41 vs teams 5 or more under and played great against them (9-3). They are 15-11 vs all other teams with 71 remaining which I find more interesting than the first two.
I expect they'll play a bit better vs the iron (12 and 23 would be fine) and worse vs the dreck (17 and 11?). .500 vs the rest and they are right there.
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I must say they've surprised me thus far, of course because of the starting pitching. Though the last pass through seems to be regressing to the mean a bit. I'm actually enjoying the season because I expect nothing and like watching young fellas with promise (Duran and Abreu look like actual MLB regulars, Wong's surge is fun, Rafaela's D and speed exciting ..). Though I wouldn't be surprised if they go on a slide. The bottom half of the order is pretty dreadful. Pitching likely to further regress (while I'm an excited believer in B&B, the pitching dominance we saw for 5 weeks just isn't sustainable) ...That is, I still think the team finishes under .500 in the end. Would be fun if I'm wrong!
I'm betting you'll be wrong. I still think they'll sneak in as the final WC seed and the way the team is built.... I doubt they'll go the distance, but I wouldn't blink if they made it to the ALCS again at all.
Yes, the starting pitching is starting to regress (sans Houck) but it's still a very good top four and add Criswell to the pen and I'd put them up against any other team's top four.
The offense collapses after the 5 hitter but Casas WILL be back. Grissom will absolutely hit better and Yoshida likely will be back and will be a much better DH. While I think it's important to get Abreu bats against lefties, as the season tightens up, a smart platoon with Ref is important. The lineup's only true "hole" will be the no. 9 hitter and Rafaela is slowly improving the more he gets ML experience. The team still tends to run either all hot or all cold which of course is a problem but I suspect most other teams are similar we just don't see it on a daily basis.
Every team absolutely goes through this. My concern for this team is that recent history (the past couple of seasons) sees these swings lasting for extended periods. If this turns out to be the trend once again it's going to be a real struggle.
We’ve seen them against a few playoff-caliber starting pitchers, and it hasn’t inspired a ton of confidence. Really, apart from Logan Webb and a Seattle staff that hadn’t found its footing Week One, the name-brand SP they’ve faced (Corbin Burnes, Chris Sale, Pablo López) have completely dismantled them.
Imanaga as well. They have had 9 games facing the top 28 of 80 non Red Sox pitchers by fWAR a third of the way through this season so I'm sure the quality they are facing is roughly on par with other teams. They are 3-6 in those games.
Burnes (again) and Skubal are coming up this week so I'm sure we're going to see more struggles.
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55 games in.
As the games go on it seems to me we don't have a lot of positional talent. By the numbers the Red Sox are 19th in War and 18th in RC+. How many players do the Red Sox have that are in the top 50?
Duran is 23rd by War (I remain skeptical of him but he has shoved that skepticism down my throat lately).
Devers is 40th.
Much depends on the Kids (Abreu has been good but can he hit left-handers, Rafaella has an RC+ of 59).
The pitching has been astounding. But it feels like we are going to waste a couple of years while we wait for Teal/Mayer/Anthony - and those guys probably aren't all stars before '27.
As the games go on it seems to me we don't have a lot of positional talent. By the numbers the Red Sox are 19th in War and 18th in RC+. How many players do the Red Sox have that are in the top 50?
Duran is 23rd by War (I remain skeptical of him but he has shoved that skepticism down my throat lately).
Devers is 40th.
Much depends on the Kids (Abreu has been good but can he hit left-handers, Rafaella has an RC+ of 59).
The pitching has been astounding. But it feels like we are going to waste a couple of years while we wait for Teal/Mayer/Anthony - and those guys probably aren't all stars before '27.
How many teams have more positional players with more than 2 in the top 50?
The Yankees have 4 in the top 50, and 3 in the top 11.
The Dodgers have 4 in the top 30
The Orioles have 5 in the top 44
San Diego has 3 in the top 44
Houston has 3 of the top 30
Colorado has 4 of the top 59
Among the ones I counted.
Tanner Houck's non-wins this year:
4/12 vs LAA (L): 5.2 ip, 12 h, 7 r, 4 er, 0 bb, 2 k - pretty awful performance, his only bad one of the year
4/23 at Cle (L): 6.0 ip, 5 h, 2 r, 2 er, 3 bb, 4 k - Sox lose 4-1
4/28 vs ChC (ND): 6.2 ip, 4 h, 1 r, 1 er, 0 bb, 9 k - Sox win 5-4 but a ND for Houck
5/3 at Min (L): 6.0 ip, 6 h, 4 r, 3 er, 2 bb, 5 k - Sox lose 5-2
5/10 vs Was (L): 7.0 ip, 6 h, 3 r, 3 er, 1 bb, 4 k - Sox lose 5-1
5/15 vs TB (L): 5.2 ip, 5 h, 3 r, 1 er, 3 bb, 7 k - Sox lose 4-3
5/26 vs Mil (ND): 6.0 ip, 7 h, 1 r, 1 er, 1 bb, 7 k - Sox win 2-1
So in his losses or no-decisions: 43.0 ip, 41 h, 21 r, 15 er, 10 bb, 38 k, 3.14 era, 1.19 whip, 8.0 k/9
He went through a stretch of 5 straight starts with either losses or no-decisions, during which he never gave up more than 3 earned runs in any of those starts. During these 7 games above, the Sox scored the following runs: 0, 1, 5, 2, 1, 3, 1 = 13 total runs (1.9 per game)
4/12 vs LAA (L): 5.2 ip, 12 h, 7 r, 4 er, 0 bb, 2 k - pretty awful performance, his only bad one of the year
4/23 at Cle (L): 6.0 ip, 5 h, 2 r, 2 er, 3 bb, 4 k - Sox lose 4-1
4/28 vs ChC (ND): 6.2 ip, 4 h, 1 r, 1 er, 0 bb, 9 k - Sox win 5-4 but a ND for Houck
5/3 at Min (L): 6.0 ip, 6 h, 4 r, 3 er, 2 bb, 5 k - Sox lose 5-2
5/10 vs Was (L): 7.0 ip, 6 h, 3 r, 3 er, 1 bb, 4 k - Sox lose 5-1
5/15 vs TB (L): 5.2 ip, 5 h, 3 r, 1 er, 3 bb, 7 k - Sox lose 4-3
5/26 vs Mil (ND): 6.0 ip, 7 h, 1 r, 1 er, 1 bb, 7 k - Sox win 2-1
So in his losses or no-decisions: 43.0 ip, 41 h, 21 r, 15 er, 10 bb, 38 k, 3.14 era, 1.19 whip, 8.0 k/9
He went through a stretch of 5 straight starts with either losses or no-decisions, during which he never gave up more than 3 earned runs in any of those starts. During these 7 games above, the Sox scored the following runs: 0, 1, 5, 2, 1, 3, 1 = 13 total runs (1.9 per game)
Thanks. I would guess Casas would put the Sox at 3…. Possibly Story at the edge of 50. Abreu has to be right there? Wong?
Again, add a fully functioning Casas back in and it’s a good lineup. Grissom is becoming worrisome to even me though. A lineup can carry 2 weak bats if they offer good defense and other skills. With Cooper, Smith, Grissom, Rafaela that’s a lot.
To some degree it's the glass half full half empty discussion. I don't see ANY MVP candidates on the team. I am far from sold on Duran and Abreu. Casas certainly helps. But we are pretty mediocre on the whole with some enormous holes offensively.
Some Grissom green shoots: three of his four walks on the season have come in his last ten PAs.
According to b-ref, the Red Sox have a total of 6.7 oWAR, which is 15th in MLB. Here's where individual Sox' players rank in all of MLB in oWAR:
27. Devers, 1.7
28. Duran, 1.7
53. Wong, 1.4
54. Abreu, 1.3
108. Hamilton, 0.9
132. O'Neill, 0.8
165. Refsnyder, 0.6
181. McGuire, 0.5
192. Casas, 0.4
248. Gonzalez, 0.2
263. Rafaela, 0.2
276. Yoshida, 0.2
438. Story, -0.1
507. Smith, -0.3
529. Grissom, -0.5
534. Reyes, -0.5
538. Dalbec, -0.6
550. Valdez, 0.8
Other notables: Benintendi (-1.1, #555), Vazquez (-0.5, #536), Baez (-0.5, #526), Bryant (-0.4, #509), Bregman (-0.1, #406)
27. Devers, 1.7
28. Duran, 1.7
53. Wong, 1.4
54. Abreu, 1.3
108. Hamilton, 0.9
132. O'Neill, 0.8
165. Refsnyder, 0.6
181. McGuire, 0.5
192. Casas, 0.4
248. Gonzalez, 0.2
263. Rafaela, 0.2
276. Yoshida, 0.2
438. Story, -0.1
507. Smith, -0.3
529. Grissom, -0.5
534. Reyes, -0.5
538. Dalbec, -0.6
550. Valdez, 0.8
Other notables: Benintendi (-1.1, #555), Vazquez (-0.5, #536), Baez (-0.5, #526), Bryant (-0.4, #509), Bregman (-0.1, #406)
So..... framing devices. The Sox have 4 of the top 55 players in oWAR. (I have to say I'm somewhat surprised that O'Neill- yeah, he's been regressing lately, and Refsnyder- are that far down though).
Even with a fully healthy Casas back (not including Story here for... arbitrary reasons?) I think everyone is aware that offensively, they're not on par with the Dodgers, Braves, Yankees and Orioles... maybe not Cleveland but I don't see them (again, WITH Casas back) as worse than the other teams vying for playoff spots. And I will once again bring up the point the the World Series isn't won often by the best regular season team. Are the '24 Sox with Casas about as good as the '23 Arizona Diamondbacks? I'd say yeah.... even after wrapping up a pretty terrible month of play in which I'm mostly down on the club.
It just my opinion - but I doubt Wong/Duran/Abreu are going to keep this up. I don't really see much of a path to the Red Sox being a top 5 team. But you don't have to be to a win a series. I will confess when I look at the Yankees and the Orioles the talent gap seems as large as I can remember from a positional perspective.
OTOH the pitching is REALLY interesting.
Just curious - why not (regarding Duran)?
Duran you're talking about roughly a 600 AB sample size over the past two seasons, which is approximately double what he had his first two tries at the MLB level. His batted ball numbers are somewhere between decent to pretty good on BBSavant. He's vastly improved his defensive play from 2022 to 2023 and continue that here in 2024. If you're skeptical about his availability based on some of his health issues, I understand that the way I would any other player with a documented issue of any kind, but from the numbers themselves, I don't get why.
The issue with Duran - like the organization almost as a whole - is that he's excellent against RHP, but unlike most of the "Boston Platoon Sox" he's been at least alright but not great (.324 OBP but no pop) against same handed pitching. So I'm genuinely curious as to what makes you think that?
I was very doubtful about Duran. I wanted to see if it was just luck and his offensive numbers would crater once his BABIP came down to a sustainable level, and his defense was rough. But every season his K% has come down and his BB% has gone up. He has shown plus batting average and power. And he actually looks like a decent MLB center fielder. I have no complaints this year. He's not going to be a superstar (I don't think) but he looks like a legit starting center fielder on a good team.
Beyond that we have a Devers and Casas as building block offensive players, Wong chipping as a hitter from catcher, and three other outfielders with an OPS above .840. Yes, the middle infield is rough, but maybe Grissom develops. Rafaela might be able to put things together too, although I believe that less every week.
The team didn't go into this season expecting to win a title. The pitching is ahead of schedule, and who knows maybe they can upset somebody in the playoffs just on that strength. But the position players are far from a black hole, and it's worth seeing who they can develop on the roster they have. I'm happier seeing Grissom and Rafaela play than I ever was seeing Dalbec out there. And yes, they do have some exciting young players coming up, but we know they won't all work out. The front office knows this too, and I'm sure there plan is not to just wait until those guys show up and save the team.
When you're dismissing a third of the lineup as not capable of maintaining their performance (and that's fine if you think that, I've long had my doubts about Duran in particular), it's going to be hard for you to be convinced that the team is on the right track to postseason success. Not sure what they can do to change your mind because all three of those guys seem to have the confidence of the manager and GM right now so they're not going anywhere. On the plus side, two of those guys could be replaced or at least pushed to secondary roles by the team's top prospects within a year or two. So there's reason for hope right there.
WAR is a counting stat and Refi has only played 27 games with 71 ABs (compared to, for instance, Abreu, who has played 47 games with 148 ABs)
I actually would bet my money on Duran and Abreu maintaining their performances, and potentially even improving a bit. Wong on the other hand ...maybe not so much - though I can believe there's been a legit step forward for him even with a regression coming.
Let's give some more deserved recognition to Rob Refsnyder. What a fantastic signing. And on the subjective side, he is so easy to root for everyday.
.347/.437/.547
I will again suggest that we chip in to buy him a 1B glove for the offseason. He has a ton of experience in the infield and could become our ultimate bench player to pair with Casas along with all the lefties in the outfield.
.347/.437/.547
I will again suggest that we chip in to buy him a 1B glove for the offseason. He has a ton of experience in the infield and could become our ultimate bench player to pair with Casas along with all the lefties in the outfield.
It’s hard to trust that he’s made some adjustments against RHP more than just finding some SSS luck but if he has, it does make O’Neill tradeable without throwing in the towel.
I'm trying to put this post on the most relevant thread possible, hoping that most of the regular posters will see it.
I must fall on my sword when it comes to Rob Refsnyder. I was very, very hard on RR in the offseason and ST on here. He has totally proven me wrong. He has been everything that they could've asked for and more, both as a calming veteran presence on a young team, and as a versatile bat who has hit both LH and RH pitching. I'll own it, I was wrong. Thanks.
I must fall on my sword when it comes to Rob Refsnyder. I was very, very hard on RR in the offseason and ST on here. He has totally proven me wrong. He has been everything that they could've asked for and more, both as a calming veteran presence on a young team, and as a versatile bat who has hit both LH and RH pitching. I'll own it, I was wrong. Thanks.
Whenever any of us are "wrong" about a player in this way..... I'm sure every single one of us who has made any similar predictions are much happier to be wrong than right. I was trying to remember who was down on him. Legit reasons. I wasn't liking the way Cora was still putting him out there against RHP and I'm not confident in saying that this is the new RFSnyder (SSS) but so far it's looking like a good call by Cora (who I dump on often and am happy to be wrong about also).
Obviously hoping it continues
My concern with Abrea is his left/right split, though I think he has the potential to be a better player than Duran. Both look like nice pieces - but not the players who lead you to a series win.
Regarding Grissom:
https://x.com/redsoxstats/status/1795558780488282293
Regarding Grissom:
https://x.com/redsoxstats/status/1795558780488282293
Yeah, Grissom hasn't had a ton of super hard hit balls that 100% should go for hits that he's been robbed of, but a series of line drives etc. that have had like a thirty to fifty percent chance of a hit lately, and it seems like almost all of those have gone for outs.
As for Abreu... yeah, he is, so far, absolutely only up to facing right-handed pitching, but to be fair to him, Duran wasn't a guy who could face anybody in the big leagues when he was 25. At Abreu's age, Duran put up a -0.1 WAR. Maybe Abreu will improve against LHP.
Regardless, what what I love about both of these guys is they play both sides of the ball. Duran was iffy defensively until this year, but he's been great out there this year, and so has Abreu. Wilyer is probably due for some regression with his batting average, but I also expect him to clean up the strikeouts some and start walking more as he adjusts to the big leagues. They both could regularly be 3-4 win players even if Abreu regresses some offensively.
In other news, Connor Wong's K rate continues to trend downward. Just 17.6% now. That's down from 33% last year. Crazy stuff.