Max Fried signs with MFY

[Manramsclan]

The years are almost irrelevant at this point. The additional years are to lower the hit to the AAV for CBT purposes.

Breslow and Co. better get out of their comfort zone and be realistic about what it is going to take to win the bidding war for a pitcher. Focus on what they are going to get versus what dead money will inevitably be there at the end of the deal.

They need pitching, and having a young core that is not making that much money will help obviate the need for space under the tax threshold.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Top remaining FA SP

Burnes
Sasaki
Flaherty
Manaea
Buehler
Morton
Quintana
Pivetta
Verlander
Scherzer
Lorenzen

 

[E5 Yaz]

I don’t think the gap between Fried and Buehler/Flaherty is all that big. Go get one and this is no big deal. Burnes screams disaster.

Please explain your reasoning o0n both those points.

 

[TrotNixonRing]

Please explain your reasoning o0n both those points.

Flaherty and Fried had essentially the same WAR in 24. Harder to compare Buehler because he was coming back from injury, but he has been an elite pitcher before, looked great in his World Series start against a team we don’t like and more time between the injury and he is a positive.

so you sign one and the rotation looks very solid

Burnes: K/9 trend is scary and yet it doesn’t seem to be factored into his price at all. You need to pay like he’s the same guy he’s always been but there are signals that he’s not.

 

[flredsoxfan]

I would like them to go hard after Buehler - on a pillow contract - and if they can get Flaherty for something close to reasonable.

 

[TrotNixonRing]

I would like them to go hard after Buehler - on a pillow contract - and if they can get Flaherty for something close to reasonable.

I like the idea of getting both and going with a six man rotation until things sort themselves out, which they always do. Spread out the risk and add another chance someone’s upside hits

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Buehler did not get offered a QO, so he’s potentially appealing as an option; and I would imagine he’s amenable to a one year deal to rebuild value. High risk, high reward- if he’s good, he’s gone or much more expensive in a year. Imagine he will have a lot of offers on a one year deal though, is there a reason he’d favor Boston over other options? I am skeptical.

 

[TrotNixonRing]

Buehler did not get offered a QO, so he’s potentially appealing as an option; and I would imagine he’s amenable to a one year deal to rebuild value. High risk, high reward- if he’s good, he’s gone or much more expensive in a year. Imagine he will have a lot of offers on a one year deal though, is there a reason he’d favor Boston over other options? I am skeptical.

Give him a player option for year 2 like Giolito and/or just offer more than the field.

 

[Jimbodandy]

Wow pitchers are expensive.

Yes. Yes, they are.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Give him a player option for year 2 like Giolito and/or just offer more than the field.

Yeah, probably. But it’s likely he only exercises such an option if he stinks and / or is hurt. So it’s only to be a great deal from the Sox end. Desperate times, though..:

 

[Pablo's TB Lover]

View: https://twitter.com/chriscotillo/status/1866621877680017906?s=46

That tells me they didn't even finish 2nd place, I don't think the Yankees would bid against themselves to be "significantly" ahead of the Sox. It is only December so I'm far from writing anything off, but at some point in the fantasy auction league draft you have $50 left and with a bunch of $1-2 level players available. I'm hoping it doesn't get to that point, and there are other ways to flex your finances through trade i.e. taking on an undesirable contract in return for another elite player.

 

[Philip Jeff Frye]

That tells me they didn't even finish 2nd place, I don't think the Yankees would bid against themselves to be "significantly" ahead of the Sox. It is only December so I'm far from writing anything off, but at some point in the fantasy auction league draft you have $50 left and with a bunch of $1-2 level players available. I'm hoping it doesn't get to that point, and there are other ways to flex your finances through trade i.e. taking on an undesirable contract in return for another elite player.

Except that this is a fantasy league that lets you pocket whatever portion of that $50 you end up not spending, and FSG seems fine with doing just that.

 

[6-5 Sadler]

Flaherty and Fried had essentially the same WAR in 24.

Flaherty is also nearly 2 years younger, doesn’t have a QO attached, and will likely sign a deal for half the guaranteed dollars. He’s also probably a better fit (more Ks, less GBs) for the Red Sox roster as currently constructed. He’s not a bad “consolation prize”.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

Flaherty is also nearly 2 years younger, doesn’t have a QO attached, and will likely sign a deal for half the guaranteed dollars. He’s also probably a better fit (more Ks, less GBs) for the Red Sox roster as currently constructed. He’s not a bad “consolation prize”.

I agree.

But as we stand here today having watched them not substantially address the rotation before 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 and with them not being aggressive on Flaherty (bc Kikuchi, Snell, Fried and Eovaldi have now all signed) what is your confidence level in this actually happening.

Really like the player. Really like idea. See zero reason to believe it’ll actually happen. (Based off 4+ off seasons of data.)

 

[ehaz]

Flaherty and Fried had essentially the same WAR in 24. Harder to compare Buehler because he was coming back from injury, but he has been an elite pitcher before, looked great in his World Series start against a team we don’t like and more time between the injury and he is a positive.

so you sign one and the rotation looks very solid

Burnes: K/9 trend is scary and yet it doesn’t seem to be factored into his price at all. You need to pay like he’s the same guy he’s always been but there are signals that he’s not.

Flaherty from 2019 to 2024: 567 innings, 114 ERA+, 3.87 FIP

Fried from 2019 to 2024: 824 innings, 141 ERA+, 3.23 FIP

I'm not even going to bother with the guy who has thrown fewer innings the last three seasons than Garrett Whitlock. The idea that you sign Buehler and the rotation looks very solid based off one world series start is, I think, nuts.

Anyways, I hope they get Flaherty, but the way this is going someone's going to offer 5/$125M and the Sox will say too rich.

 

[curly2]

Never mind, bad reading comprehension from me.

 

[ehaz]

Flaherty is also nearly 2 years younger, doesn’t have a QO attached, and will likely sign a deal for half the guaranteed dollars. He’s also probably a better fit (more Ks, less GBs) for the Red Sox roster as currently constructed. He’s not a bad “consolation prize”.

I agree that he's not a bad consolation prize but I don't know about being a better fit. When exactly did inducing ground balls and bad contact become a bad thing? OK he misses some more bats, but the quality of contact he gives up is a helluva lot louder than Fried's. I'm not sure how that's going to play with half his starts every year in Fenway.

 

[Salem's Lot]

Well, they paid the same dollars to David Price, for one less year. He was both instrumental in helping us win in 2018, and a giant drain on our chances the last few years.

You can pull moves like this, but not every time with every free agent. In Price's case, I'd say it was worth it. You can overpay once in a while to push your chances over the top, but you have to time it right, with the right player.

That was BC: Before Cardinale

As soon as they let private equity money into the ownership group in 2021, the whole organization changed. Those guys don’t want long term risk, it’s all about short term return for them.

And before anyone comes back with “they only own 12% of the company!”, there are agreements in writing that take place when you take their investment. I’m sure they have to sign off on big expenditures the same way the other partners have to. Hell, it’s been reported that they own more of FSG than Tom Werner & Mike Gordon now.

They’re going to set a budget and stick to it, it sucks for us, but it is what it is. They hired Breslow to figure out how to draft & develop talent because Bloom couldn’t do it on the pitching side. Hopefully he figures It out.

 

[TrotNixonRing]

Flaherty from 2019 to 2024: 567 innings, 114 ERA+, 3.87 FIP

Fried from 2019 to 2024: 824 innings, 141 ERA+, 3.23 FIP

I'm not even going to bother with the guy who has thrown fewer innings the last three seasons than Garrett Whitlock. The idea that you sign Buehler and the rotation looks very solid based off one world series start is, I think, nuts.

Anyways, I hope they get Flaherty, but the way this is going someone's going to offer 5/$125M and the Sox will say too rich.

well yeah, and that’s why Fried’s contract will be a lot larger. But that’s past performance and we want future and there’s no guarantee, especially with pitching, that those will be aligned

I am not signing Buehler based on one start. He’s got a lifetime 125 ERA+. But when a guy is coming back from injury and ends the season on the largest possible stage shutting down the MFY, it’s comforting.

 

[Mike473]

The Red Sox find themselves in no man’s land. For example, they don't want to spend on top pitchers over 30 unless a discount is in play. But, if a generational pitcher ever hit the market at 26, they would have no chance due to the cost and feeding frenzy of the Yankees vs Mets and so on. So, they get neither.

 

[Apisith]

If the Yankees agreed to 8 years for Fried, I'm assuming Burnes is asking for 10 years and higher AAV. So something like 10/$300m. This is what it takes to sign pitchers these days.

 

[6-5 Sadler]

I agree that he's not a bad consolation prize but I don't know about being a better fit. When exactly did inducing ground balls and bad contact become a bad thing? OK he misses some more bats, but the quality of contact he gives up is a helluva lot louder than Fried's. I'm not sure how that's going to play with half his starts every year in Fenway.

Fried is a really good pitcher! There’s nothing wrong with ground balls and weak contact!

My comment on better fit was more around maximizing the value of each of the pitchers. Obviously in a vacuum you would prefer weak, ground ball contact over harder contact in the air. My concern with Fried would be that he would be allowing that contact into an infield defense of Casas, Grissom (probably), Story, and Devers.

Flaherty allows harder contact but he’s not terrible in this regard. Since 2017, Fried ranks 5th and Flaherty ranks 14th in average exit velocity among 58 starters with 800 IP (they rank 14th and 13th, respectively, in hard hit rate). And there is reason to believe Fenway would actually help him with HRs. According to Baseball Savant’s expected HR by park tool, Flaherty would have allowed the 2nd least amount of HRs in Fenway for his career than any other park. Now doubles…that’s another story.

 

[sezwho]

The Red Sox find themselves in no man’s land. For example, they don't want to spend on top pitchers over 30 unless a discount is in play. But, if a generational pitcher ever hit the market at 26, they would have no chance due to the cost and feeding frenzy of the Yankees vs Mets and so on. So, they get neither.

Don’t forget not drafting or signing them young either, because the position players have a higher likelihood of hitting (ha?).

So back to the collect underpants pitching strategy! Go Sawx!

 

[simplicio]

Don’t forget not drafting or signing them young either, because the position players have a higher likelihood of hitting (ha?).

So back to the collect underpants pitching strategy! Go Sawx!

They drafted 14 pitchers this year.

 

[Yo La Tengo]

I was surprised that the Yankees decided to sign Fried when their rotation looked set/solid and they have lots of other needs. This morning I saw Jomboy speculating/worrying that Cole is injured. Any additional reporting on this?

 

[sezwho]

They drafted 14 pitchers this year.

Fair, and the Breslow iteration seems heavily invested on the development side as well. Let’s hope those pitchers develop soon.

 

[HangingW/ScottCooper]

I get that people are frustrated, but I am SO tired of reading complaints like this over and over and over.
Dombrowski got fired because he didn't have a plan to sustain the level of success he achieved in 2018.
Or, a major piece of his plan was to count on big money pitchers staying healthy into their 30's.
Saying that your have to spend your money somewhere, well yeah, I'm sure they will.
But this would have been David Price 2.0
Which homegrown superstar would we have to trade in 4 years to balance the books?



Yeah, it was worth it, at the time anyway. I'm not trying to re-litigate Mookie, but don't we want the FO to allocate their resources in the most intelligent way possible?

Yet he went to another organization and any one of us would trade the 2019-2024 Phillies for the 2019-2024 Red Sox.

 

[bosockboy]

We’ve reached the portion of the rebuild cycle where we need DD back. We are in 2015 again.

 

[pk1627]

Why don’t we take a little of the scorn for a one-year $10 million deal, and apply it to an over-reaction by the MFY? This transaction has Igawa overtones.

Bottom line is that they failed on Soto and this transaction is the result. If there’s Sox had offered 8 (!) years, MFY would go to 9.

 

[gradysizemore69]

Dombrowski helped us get a ring. He hasn't done that with the Phillies... yet (if ever). The NL East is a strong division. The Mets highlighted the Phillies' glaring flaws. The Braves squeezed into the playoffs. The Nationals have a young core and solid prospects... The Marlins are there.

The Phillies are tied to a bunch of aging 30+ year old Boras clients. They traded away Logan O'Hoppe (who would've been extremely useful during Realmuto's injuries this year) for a clump of hair (aka Brandon Marsh).

I could ramble about the Phillies for the rest of the day, but I don't think they can win it all with Bryce Harper as the face of their franchise. He's an immature narcissist playing a team-oriented sport.

Back to the Red Sox: I was very high on Craig going into this offseason. However, with most of the premier FAs gone by beginning/middle of December, it seems like he can't close a freaking deal.

Last year, it was evident that he was hamstrung with the budget. Now this year, these deals can't come to fruition with the proper resources.

Oh well. Not every CBO can be David Stearns or Alex Anthopoulos.

 

[Bigdogx]

Lmao Red Sox "In on everyone, getting no one"...

Here let me make Sam Kennedys fanbase pandering message for him "Don't forget fans, we have Giolito coming back"......

 

[jon abbey]

I was surprised that the Yankees decided to sign Fried when their rotation looked set/solid and they have lots of other needs. This morning I saw Jomboy speculating/worrying that Cole is injured. Any additional reporting on this?

There is nothing to it, because if there was, NY wouldn’t have just let him un-opt out.

 

[OCD SS]

Why don’t we take a little of the scorn for a one-year $10 million deal, and apply it to an over-reaction by the MFY? This transaction has Igawa overtones.

I’ve actually been thinking that the Sox signing Burns (if we even get there) would have Igawa overtones.

Burns’ continually declining peripherals are very worrying to me - I can’t see paying him more than Fried.

 

[cantor44]

The Red Sox find themselves in no man’s land. For example, they don't want to spend on top pitchers over 30 unless a discount is in play. But, if a generational pitcher ever hit the market at 26, they would have no chance due to the cost and feeding frenzy of the Yankees vs Mets and so on. So, they get neither.

This is exactly right. They are stuck. The only way out of this trench is to go ahead and overpay for someone, or give up top prospects.To me, the overpay - at this moment - is the lesser evil, and it's baffling to me that they aren't more aggressive. Snell, Fried, Eovladi - just like last year, one by one, pitchers off the board, and the Sox seem to lack urgency, hamstrung by their principles which keep them tethered to mediocrity.
We can keep saying, "well, at that price, thanks but no thanks!" only to come home without any eggs at all because man - the prices! ...Well, there was that one carton that has only just passed the expiration date still sitting on the shelf there ...

 

[Philip Jeff Frye]

This is exactly right. They are stuck. The only way out of this trench is to go ahead and overpay for someone, or give up top prospects.To me, the overpay - at this moment - is the lesser evil, and it's baffling to me that they aren't more aggressive. Snell, Fried, Eovladi - just like last year, one by one, pitchers off the board, and the Sox seem to lack urgency, hamstrung by their principles which keep them tethered to mediocrity.
We can keep saying, "well, at that price, thanks but no thanks!" only to come home without any eggs at all because man - the prices! ...Well, there was that one carton that has only just passed the expiration date still sitting on the shelf there ...

Not only that, but when they do act, its to give mediocre pitchers like Paxton or Giolito contracts where the Red Sox assume all the risk that they get hurt/suck but let them walk away if they prove themselves. You'd think a hedge fund guy like Henry would look at that fan of potential outcomes and say "Not good!"

At least they maintain the flexibility to give the next mediocre guy a short-term contract!

 

[tims4wins]

Not only that, but when they do act, its to give mediocre pitchers like Paxton or Giolito contracts where the Red Sox assume all the risk that they get hurt/suck but let them walk away if they prove themselves. You'd think a hedge fund guy like Henry would look at that fan of potential outcomes and say "Not good!"

At least they maintain the flexibility to give the next mediocre guy a short-term contract!

When BB used to do similar with the Pats he would at least get draft pick compensation if the player performed well. The Sox receive no such upside.

 

[BaseballJones]

Yeah the problem with all this is that by missing out on the big fish, they're likely going to massively overspend on medium or even little fish, and it will rightly be seen as some sort of "panic" move. Like, is it better to sign an elite pitcher like Burnes to a massive, 8-year deal, or to sign a reclamation project like Buehler to a 3-year, $48m deal (no idea if that's about what it would look like...I'm guessing)? If Buehler gets back to what he was, then that's a WAY better deal than Burnes. But Burnes has been really good for many straight years now. Pitching is volatile, but he seems as sure a bet as any to be good, at least for the next few years. Yes his massive deal is indeed humongous, but at this point the Sox should be looking for production.

 

[tims4wins]

Yeah the problem with all this is that by missing out on the big fish, they're likely going to massively overspend on medium or even little fish, and it will rightly be seen as some sort of "panic" move. Like, is it better to sign an elite pitcher like Burnes to a massive, 8-year deal, or to sign a reclamation project like Buehler to a 3-year, $48m deal (no idea if that's about what it would look like...I'm guessing)? If Buehler gets back to what he was, then that's a WAY better deal than Burnes. But Burnes has been really good for many straight years now. Pitching is volatile, but he seems as sure a bet as any to be good, at least for the next few years. Yes his massive deal is indeed humongous, but at this point the Sox should be looking for production.

Plus Buehler might not even be open to a multi year deal. That’s the issue with reclamation projects. If they bet on themselves you only get them for one year.

 

[I Miss Maalox]

We’ve reached the portion of the rebuild cycle where we need DD back. We are in 2015 again.

Yet he went to another organization and any one of us would trade the 2019-2024 Phillies for the 2019-2024 Red Sox.

I'm a big fan of DD. I can't think of a more surprising and shocking firing of a POBO. We have sorely missed his decisiveness and aggressive pursuit of the players he wanted, and he was a top notch talent evaluator. He knew which prospects to trade and which ones to keep, and didn't mind over-paying to get what he wanted.

2015-2016 David Price is relevant to this discussion because he was a top starting pitcher, past 30 and likely wouldn't be worth the massive contract it would take to get him. But at the time, he was the only free agent who would take a team full of young talent to the next level, so DD bit the 217 million dollar bullet and the rest is history. We all lived happily ever after, up until 2019 anyway.
If Price and Sale had stayed healthy DD might still be our POBO. I've never read the definitive story of why he was fired, but placing massive bets that went bad had to have something to do with it.

Now everyone is clamoring for a free agent ace. We all want a #1 starter, of course. Betting $200+ million on a pitcher over 30 *could* work out, but history tells us that its a suckers bet.

I'm hoping that Brez will have Dombrowski's knack for knowing who to trade and who to keep. Mayer could be the new Moncada, but whether its Crochet or some other up and coming starter, I suspect a trade is more likely than a big FA splash.

I think there should be a corollary to TINSTAAPP; TINSTAARS (Reliable Starter)

 

[DeadlySplitter]

Sherman is reporting Sox offered 7/190 with deferrals. Should they really have gone higher? Yanks basically added a year at this salary, without deferrals.

View: https://twitter.com/tylermilliken_/status/1866903542713205211

 

[bsan34]

I don't care what they offered. It wasn't good enough. They failed. Just as they have with practically every major league level move since they traded Mookie Betts.

 

[SouthernBoSox]

Sherman is reporting Sox offered 7/190 with deferrals. Should they really have gone higher? Yanks basically added a year at this salary, without deferrals.

View: https://twitter.com/tylermilliken_/status/1866903542713205211

If they were willing to offer this, they should have signed him. A failure.

 

[DeadlySplitter]

If they were willing to offer this, they should have signed him. A failure.

So just swallow the 8th year and remove deferrals? If he favored Yanks a bit they may have had to go 9 years, what then?

I think you can make a compelling argument for either side of this one.

Rangers were also at 7/190 without state tax, per Sherman. Here's the direct source:

https://www.nypost.com/2024/12/11/sports/yankees-werent-max-frieds-top-choice-heres-how-they-got-him/

 

[Murby]

If you’re consistently just behind the winning offer it no longer is an accident. It becomes a willful disengagement of the game being played. There’s no both sides here. Not anymore.

 

[DeadlySplitter]

This excerpt also seems like Fried was prioritizing the Yankees:

They were at eight years at $210 million — Fried wanting the eighth season. The Fried camp let the Yankees know that if they went to $218 million — $1 million more than David Price’s record for a lefty starter (a seven-year deal signed in 2015) — that there would be no more shopping; that the Yankees would get Fried."

I'm as frustrated as anyone and am very concerned the Sox FO is dysfunctional right now, but we will never have the full information on these negotiations.

One thing I would not have done here is any deferrals

 

[Bleedred]

I'm encouraged that the Red Sox were in on Fried <sarcasm>. I simply don't trust FSG anymore. I think they'd like a winning, competitive ballclub, but they're completely comfortable not spending top dollar on top free agents because they have a lot of diversity in their holdings (Penguins, Racing, Liverpool, Red Sox) and they're making money hand over fist. Maybe that's not fair, but I think it's a totally reasonable take on what has happened with the Baseball team over the past 5+ seasons.