Mauricio Dubon

Dec 13, 2013
390
So this guy doesn't have a thread yet.
 
He's not a baby you can dream on, but still fairly young. 20 years old but turning 21. Playing in Greenville right now. He is a shortstop described as having "smooth actions" in the field and a strong arm - in other words, utility player. Soxprospects notes that he "could also likely handle the outfield if need be to increase versatility."
 
While he isn't walking much (6.9%) or hitting for power (.130 ISO), he is sporting a .788 OPS (12th in the Sally league) with 17 steals in 20 tries. Perhaps more importantly, he has kept his strikeouts down in the process (12.5%).
 
Overall, Dubon is a prospect who at a glance fits the neat little box of "utility player". He has some clear limitations (namely, the absence of power) that have made him somewhat of a footnote on a loaded Greenville team. However, he has gone largely unchallenged in terms of putting the bat to the ball and precursors to plus pitch recognition - two traits that many "where did he come from?" stories begin with.
 
Could anyone offer some insight on this prospect?
 
Dec 13, 2013
390
It's early, but Mauricio has been quite "Dubonaire" at the plate for the Salem Sox. 13 hits, 6 walks, 2 strikeouts and 2 sacrifices in 45 plate appearances. They often say power develops last - if the 21 year old can field his positions and continue to get the bat on the ball, he ought to be in AA sooner rather than later.
 

Ramon AC

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What?
Dubon stood out during the middle/late innings of the second preseason game in Montreal, fwiw.
 

pantsparty

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Being promoted to Portland after representing Salem in the Carolina League All-Star Game.


He hit .306/.387/.379 in high-A, so no power to speak of, but seems like he's at least decent at putting the ball in play and he walked (33 times) more than he struck out (25 times).
 
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The Gray Eagle

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Dubon went 4-for-5 on Saturday. Now hitting .368/.394/.647 in August.
Overall, he is tearing it up in Portland: .332/.365/.526.
 

plucy

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Since his promo to PORT he is hitting the ball in the air more and walking less. Big slugging increase. That will push him beyond utility/ second division starter material. I'm getting a Julio-Lugo-in-TB feel to his game right now. Power and speed, good contact, meh defense.
 

FanSinceBoggs

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Dubon definitely profiles as a potential starting SS at the major league level, with maybe one or two all star years mixed in. He has surpassed J.Guerra as a prospect and exceeded soxprospects.com projection: "Potential utility type at the big league level."

I wonder about Dubon's future with the Red Sox organization. Is he an off-season trade chip or do the Red Sox hold on and decide at a later stage?

As usual, Mayo's evaluation is accurate:
[Dubon] has emerged as the system's best shortstop prospect because he's a better hitter than Deven Marrero and a better defender than C.J. Chatham.

Dubon has tremendous hand-eye coordination and a quick right-handed bat, allowing him to barrel balls with ease. He has shown more patience in 2016, drawing more walks and getting himself out on weak contact less frequently. He'll never be a home run hitter, but adding some strength and balance at the plate would help him produce line drives more consistently.
http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2016?list=bos
 
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The Gray Eagle

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Still crushing it in AA: 3-4 last night with a HR and double.

His numbers get an "entirely unfair" comparison to Mookie's in the Portland Press Herald:


"Betts was 21 when he began the 2014 season in Portland. He batted .355 with 18 doubles, three triples and six home runs in 54 games before his promotion to Triple-A.
Dubon, in 52 games with the Sea Dogs since his promotion from Class A Salem, is batting .337 with 17 doubles, six triples and five home runs."
Mookie also put up his numbers in the first half in Portland, when the weather is usually much colder and it seems harder to hit, especially for power.
But still, Dubon's offense has been great in Portland. Even though he isn't Mookie, he is showing enough promise with the bat that he might start getting some time at other positions next year. If he was playing OF or 3B, those numbers would still be excellent and people wouldn't be thinking of him as someone we should trade, and would be more excited about him.

28 extra-base hits in 52 games is excellent, no matter what position you play.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
But still, Dubon's offense has been great in Portland. Even though he isn't Mookie, he is showing enough promise with the bat that he might start getting some time at other positions next year. If he was playing OF or 3B, those numbers would still be excellent and people wouldn't be thinking of him as someone we should trade, and would be more excited about him.
I hate to be the one to say this, but given that Xander is a Boras client and will be hitting FA in three years, I don't think of Dubon as trade bait. I think of him as the heir presumptive.
 

FanSinceBoggs

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He is a year older than Moncada and has a similar OPS in Double A. He is striking out less than Moncada (who needs to cut down on the Ks), has less power than Moncada (of course). With that said, a year is pretty significant in terms of developmental time and I'm not saying that Dubon is on the same level as Moncada as a prospect, but I will say that Dubon has really emerged this year and is now a big time prospect. You could make the case that he is now a top 5 prospect in the Red Sox system (excluding Benintendi). Moncada, Devers, and Dubon are, arguably, the three best position players; Kopech and Groome are, arguably, the two best pitching prospects.
 

Plympton91

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Another argument that could be made is that there is more to scouting prospects than looking at a stat line and box scores.
And some people do neither with enough frequency to even know which of the minor league clubs is going to make the postseason, yet still feel compelled to offer an opinion.
 

Cesar Crespo

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And some people do neither with enough frequency to even know which of the minor league clubs is going to make the postseason, yet still feel compelled to offer an opinion.
What is this in response to and how does it relate to Dubon? Portland and Pawtucket aren't making the playoffs.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Anyway, another 2/4 game today. He hit his 6th HR in Portland yesterday. 6 is a career high. He also has 4 walks and 10 strikeouts in his last 131 PA. Insane. You'd think they would start walking him more.

.339/.371/.538 in 270 PA at Portland. For the year, .323/.380/.461 in 549 PA. That line is somewhat similar to his line in Greenville last year.
 

The Gray Eagle

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Dubon has been playing some CF in the AFL.

He had 3 hits yesterday with 2 steals.

"Before this fall, Dubon hadn't played the outfield since he was an 8-year-old learning the game in Honduras. He has played center twice so far for the Saguaros and said the toughest adjustment is reading balls hit right at him, though he's happy with his progress so far.

"This was my second game out there and it's fun," he said. "I like playing the infield, but if the Red Sox think this will get me quicker to the big leagues, I'm fine with it. Being more versatile will open up a lot more doors."

Dubon, 22, is coming off his best season as a pro. He batted .323/.379/.461 with 46 extra-base hits (six homers) and 30 steals in 124 games evenly split between high Class A and Double-A. He has some of the best hand-eye coordination in Boston's system, a quick right-handed bat and solid speed, arm strength and infield ability."
 

Apisith

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Is there a reason he was moved to CF? Seems our outfield is pretty well locked up, no? I would have said the infield had better prospects for him. 3B is completely open, at the moment.
 

Quintanariffic

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Might give them flexibility to explore trading JBJ for pitching while keeping Moncada. Also, FWIW, between Moncada, Panda, Shaw and Holt, I'd argue there's more 3B depth than CF depth on the 40 man roster.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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It also might be as simple as the roster of his AFL team. I wouldn't read a ton into it. AFL often gets too much weight for what it is. Fun exhibition and showcase for a few weeks, a chance to gets some guys extra ABs or IPs, but it's not really weighted heavily for development purposes and the stats are kind of meaningless. It's essentially a showcase.

Edit: I'll add that if any pitching prospects show up there, they either aren't that exciting or they need innings because of injury. A la Kopech.
 

PaulinMyrBch

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Tanner English (Twins) is on that team and playing CF, which he's played since he was 12. Tanner was injured for most of the season, so he's likely in the AFL to get the extra AB's. Looks like Dubon is playing CF when Tanner sits, which is definitely a move toward getting him exposure there. Sunrise has 5 outfielders on the roster, they could put any of those other guys there if needed.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Is there a reason he was moved to CF? Seems our outfield is pretty well locked up, no? I would have said the infield had better prospects for him. 3B is completely open, at the moment.
Because his most likely path to the Majors is being a Brock Holt type player. There is value in a guy who can cover 2b, SS, 3b and all the OF spots, especially if the team goes with a rotating DH.
 

nvalvo

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Edit: I'll add that if any pitching prospects show up there, they either aren't that exciting or they need innings because of injury. A la Kopech.
We all remember when Deven Marrero was the Addison Russell of the AFL, so I hear what you're saying, but I don't think it's quite that clear cut.

I just spent five minutes scrolling through the pitching leaders from recent AFL seasons. Of current good, young MLB pitchers, Stephen Strasburg, Eduardo Rodriguez, Andrew Heaney, Drew Hutchison, Aaron Sanchez, Marcus Stroman, Mike Montgomery, Carson Smith, James Paxton, Vince Velazquez, Dellin Betances, Dallas Keuchel, Gerrit Cole, Craig Kimbrel, Andrew Miller, Kenley Jansen, Sergio Santos, etc., etc., have all pitched in Arizona. Also a ton of JAGs.

Now maybe they all needed innings, and it does seem like some organizations are more interested in placing their SP prospects in particular in Arizona than the Red Sox are. But even then, Buchholz threw 21 innings in the AFL following a season he entered as a consensus Top 5 prospect league wide.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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We all remember when Deven Marrero was the Addison Russell of the AFL, so I hear what you're saying, but I don't think it's quite that clear cut.

I just spent five minutes scrolling through the pitching leaders from recent AFL seasons. Of current good, young MLB pitchers, Stephen Strasburg, Eduardo Rodriguez, Andrew Heaney, Drew Hutchison, Aaron Sanchez, Marcus Stroman, Mike Montgomery, Carson Smith, James Paxton, Vince Velazquez, Dellin Betances, Dallas Keuchel, Gerrit Cole, Craig Kimbrel, Andrew Miller, Kenley Jansen, Sergio Santos, etc., etc., have all pitched in Arizona. Also a ton of JAGs.

Now maybe they all needed innings, and it does seem like some organizations are more interested in placing their SP prospects in particular in Arizona than the Red Sox are. But even then, Buchholz threw 21 innings in the AFL following a season he entered as a consensus Top 5 prospect league wide.
And yeah, that was a year the Buchholz only got 58 IP ( after getting 125 the year before) his entire minor league season.
I didn't mean to imply it's 100% the case, but pretty much the reason they send top guys is because of innings needed or wanting them to stretch out. I'll try to take a look tomorrow at each f the guys you mentioned, but I'm willing to bet more often than not they either missed time during the season or didn't log enough to raise their cap.
Off the top of my head, I also would wonder if the later signing date for draftees played a part in a large number of those big name guys. Someone like Strasburg didn't even sign until mid August. His professional debut was in the AFL.