Matt Beleskey to Bruins: 5 years $3.8 million AAV

PedroSpecialK

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PedroSpecialK said:
 
I've got an awful feeling that he'll be coming here for like 4 years, $5m AAV or something stupid
 
 
What a moron.
 
$4m or under is fine by me to get him for age 27-31
 

veritas

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Really like this deal. My initial opposition in the game thread was due to me half confusing him with Patrick Maroon while looking at his stats. I was thinking those numbers came playing most of the season with Getzlaf and Perry, which was wrong. I also was hearing much higher $$ numbers than what he ended up getting.
 
Looking past his initial numbers I like him even more. His numbers came in limited minutes and he barely played on the PP. He also seems to be a very good possession player. The WOWY numbers are very positive for almost everyone he played with last season.
 

IdiotKicker

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On Friday, I was feeling like the offseason was somewhere around a D+. I feel like we're creeping into B/B+ range with what we've seen the last few days now.
 

RIFan

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This is a surprisingly good deal when you look at the full details, $3.8 AAV and a NMC for only the 1st 2 years. I have to believe someone was offering more $$ and he wanted to come to Boston.
 

BigMike

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Well not as bad as I expected.  I do think we will gripe a lot about the contract over the next 5, just as much as most gripe about Krug
 

PedroSpecialK

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Worth noting that the AAV on this is $500k less than Michael Frolik.
 
Pretty rare that you can find value like this on July 1, credit to Sweendawg where it's due.
 

AimingForYoko

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I'm meh on the player and the term but the money is better than expected. I guess he wanted out of CA.
 

richgedman'sghost

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So is everyone backing away from the fire and the pitchforks of a week ago? I am not a big hockey fan but in general I believe in patience before judging an off season. People were ready to tar and feather Sweeney last Friday and the off season had just begun. Hopefully everyone has taken a step back from the Tobin bridge and can relax. I'm just curious: how many of the posters who said they were canceling their season tickets or dropping Game Center or doing something else in protest of the Hamilton trade still intend to do so. Has the past week changed anyone's mind or opinion of Sweeney and Neely?
 

Reardons Beard

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richgedman'sghost said:
So is everyone backing away from the fire and the pitchforks of a week ago? I am not a big hockey fan but in general I believe in patience before judging an off season. People were ready to tar and feather Sweeney last Friday and the off season had just begun. Hopefully everyone has taken a step back from the Tobin bridge and can relax. I'm just curious: how many of the posters who said they were canceling their season tickets or dropping Game Center or doing something else in protest of the Hamilton trade still intend to do so. Has the past week changed anyone's mind or opinion of Sweeney and Neely?
 
I did not feel this way at the time. My view has been you cannot judge their performance until all the dust has settled.
 
That said, I'd say they've worked their way back to average for the moment and the potential to have an above average off season depending on what remains and how these draft picks work out.
 
Time will tell all.
 

RedSox040713

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So according to General Fanager we are at about 9 million dollars in cap space. This doesn't include Hayes deal, plus we still need a backup goalie, and perhaps a defenseman, so maybe another trade could be coming? Just me spitballing here
 

BigMike

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TheShynessClinic said:
Who gripes about Krug? Do you mean Kelly?
 
You are right,  my mind is scattered at the moment out on the west coast, and in meetings 8 hours a day.
 

RIFan

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I think it's a pretty solid bet that this contract will be viewed as Kelly's is by many. The reality is they probably kept the AAV down by adding term. The 4 and 5 year contracts for mid level players is getting fairly prevalent, so I suspect that GM's are anticipating the cap expanding at a faster rate and some of these contracts will be relative bargains in a few years.
 

burstnbloom

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I really like this deal.  $3.9 is a reasonable number for a guy with pretty strong peripheral numbers.  I was HATING the idea of paying him $5mm plus, but I can live with this. 
 

kenneycb

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RIFan said:
I think it's a pretty solid bet that this contract will be viewed as Kelly's is by many. The reality is they probably kept the AAV down by adding term. The 4 and 5 year contracts for mid level players is getting fairly prevalent, so I suspect that GM's are anticipating the cap expanding at a faster rate and some of these contracts will be relative bargains in a few years.
Plus you can generally move those contracts pretty easily once the term gets short.
 

DJnVa

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http://prohockeytalk.nbcsports.com/2015/07/01/bruins-sign-beleskey-for-five-years-despite-some-warning-signs/?cid=yahoo
 
Beleskey scored on 15.2 percent of his shots in 2014-15. Which was a good thing. But his career rate is 9.9, suggesting he may have picked a really profitable season to have some shooting luck.
It’s also possible that skating mostly with Ryan Kesler, plus a fair bit with Ryan Getzlaf, helped Beleskey’s numbers. In 329 career NHL games, Beleskey only has 57 goals.
 
 

Murby

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Someone with idea what Corsi means help me out with my conclusion if wrong, but....
 
Kirk Luedeke just tweeted at 8:28pm: "Beleskey tidbit- C Ryan Kesler played just 23% of ES min w/o Matt Beleskey...Corsi dropped w/o Beleskey from 50.62 to 44.44%"
 
Does this suggest Beleskey was actually a good support player and made Kesler look better than is? 
 

Reardons Beard

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Murby said:
Someone with idea what Corsi means help me out with my conclusion if wrong, but....
 
Kirk Luedeke just tweeted at 8:28pm: "Beleskey tidbit- C Ryan Kesler played just 23% of ES min w/o Matt Beleskey...Corsi dropped w/o Beleskey from 50.62 to 44.44%"
 
Does this suggest Beleskey was actually a good support player and made Kesler look better than is? 
 
I like it. We'll go with that.
 

Toe Nash

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Murby said:
Someone with idea what Corsi means help me out with my conclusion if wrong, but....
 
Kirk Luedeke just tweeted at 8:28pm: "Beleskey tidbit- C Ryan Kesler played just 23% of ES min w/o Matt Beleskey...Corsi dropped w/o Beleskey from 50.62 to 44.44%"
 
Does this suggest Beleskey was actually a good support player and made Kesler look better than is? 
I'm not seeing the same thing (http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=595&withagainst=true&season=2014-15&sit=5v5):
 
Kesler 1093 ES min total, overall 50.5 CF%
With Beleskey 462 min 55.0 CF%
Without Beleskey 630 min 47.1 CF%
 
That looks very promising, but Kesler was given more offensive zone faceoffs with Beleskey and more of his defensive faceoffs were without Beleskey:
With Beleskey 53% offensive zone starts
Without Beleskey 41%
 
So 1. I'm not sure where Leudeke got his numbers and 2. it doesn't look like Beleskey hurt Kesler's possession numbers, but when you account for the relative zone starts he didn't really improve them either.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Toe Nash said:
I'm not seeing the same thing (http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=595&withagainst=true&season=2014-15&sit=5v5):
 
Kesler 1093 ES min total, overall 50.5 CF%
With Beleskey 462 min 55.0 CF%
Without Beleskey 630 min 47.1 CF%
 
That looks very promising, but Kesler was given more offensive zone faceoffs with Beleskey and more of his defensive faceoffs were without Beleskey:
With Beleskey 53% offensive zone starts
Without Beleskey 41%
 
So 1. I'm not sure where Leudeke got his numbers and 2. it doesn't look like Beleskey hurt Kesler's possession numbers, but when you account for the relative zone starts he didn't really improve them either.
I'm skeptical about all of this WOWY stuff ever since I saw this:
 
http://www.stlouisgametime.com/2014/9/20/6662399/wowy-is-worthless-part-4
 
 
Linesmen have no effect on Corsi production but there are a number of skater-linesman WOWL pairs where the linesman appears to have a substantial effect on the player. That's not effect. That is simply randomness.
 
A Blues Example
 
Chris Stewart "with" Linesman Bryan Pancich 119 Events 65.5%
Chris Stewart 'without" Bryan Pancich 1068 events 46.5%
WDiff +19.0%
 

headly

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Belesky signed for a lot less than anticipated on the open market, and only slightly more than what Smith was making.  Getting him for less than Savard's cap hit seems like a pretty goddamn good deal.  Even if he does regress a bit, I think he will be a nice upgrade from Smith.  And with Smith/Soder gone, I think Loui's skillset will shine a bit more. Hayes/Talbot/Ferlin seem to cement Rinaldo in a 13th F, only when we need him type role.  Things are certainly not better than they were a week ago, but there are a lot more options now.  I think Sweeney might have something going here, time will tell.  I think there are the bullets and cap room to add another top 6 W and Top 4 D, if not now then the trade deadline.
 

Eddie Jurak

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headly said:
Hayes/Talbot/Ferlin seem to cement Rinaldo in a 13th F, only when we need him type role.  
We can only hope, but I doubt Sweeney forked over a 3rd round pick for a 13th forward.
 

headly

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Eddie Jurak said:
We can only hope, but I doubt Sweeney forked over a 3rd round pick for a 13th forward.
Didn't realize he was a left shot either, so those might not be his competition.
 
Further points for Sweeney maybe, does Belesky's NTC for 2 seasons have anything to do with expansion?  I haven't seen the numbers, but if it's frontloaded and he's able to be left unprotected, if things aren't working out he could be a prime pick for an expansion draft.
 

Toe Nash

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Eddie Jurak said:
I'm skeptical about all of this WOWY stuff ever since I saw this:
 
http://www.stlouisgametime.com/2014/9/20/6662399/wowy-is-worthless-part-4
 
Yeah, I don't disagree that there's a ton of noise. Was just posting the numbers since they differed so much. I think WOWYs might have meaning over a large enough sample size but we probably rarely get to that point without the context changing greatly (would take multiple seasons).
 

j44thor

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Who is Matt Beleskey?  Does anyone actually have a good scouting write up on him?  He has only one season of above 4th line production from what I can gather just looking at his stats.  I think 3.8 is fine and a potential bargain if he can continue to produce similar to last season though I would hope the assists pick up a tick.  My concern is that last season looks like the outlier.  
 
Seems like most ANH fans are sad to see him go which I take as a plus but I'm honestly not sure why.  Is he our Brian Bickell?
 

TheRealness

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j44thor said:
Who is Matt Beleskey?  Does anyone actually have a good scouting write up on him?  He has only one season of above 4th line production from what I can gather just looking at his stats.  I think 3.8 is fine and a potential bargain if he can continue to produce similar to last season though I would hope the assists pick up a tick.  My concern is that last season looks like the outlier.  
 
Seems like most ANH fans are sad to see him go which I take as a plus but I'm honestly not sure why.  Is he our Brian Bickell?
 
From what I've read, it seems like this year was the first real legitimate opportunity he got to play top 9 minutes. He was on the AHL-NHL shuttle quite a bit for a while, and looking at his numbers he always produced at the AHL. He's basically Lucic-light but more consistent. Very physical player who will be up at the top of the list in hits for the Bruins, but  he seems to skate better than Lucic overall. Lucic is a better player, but I would not be surprised to see Belesky playing with Spooner and Pastrnak in the role Lucic had on that line as he is defensively responsible. 
 
There is certainly risk, but given his playing style they basically are looking for him to replace Lucic's production at a little more than half of his cap hit. 
 

Myt1

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I'll defer to people who have seen him play, but the deal feels a bit long for someone without much of a track record of success. It's a "what he could be" deal instead of "what he is," I think.
 

njexpress9

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I need some help.   I am looking to answer the following question.
 
Are Beleskey, Hayes and Connolly an upgrade over Lucic, Smith and Soderberg?  
 
Looking at 5x5 stats over the past two years, in both Fenwick/60 and Corsi/60 it appears that Beleskey, Hayes and Connolly (only 2015 data) have much higher values.   It seems to me that they might be and this does not factor in their cost.
 
What am I missing?  Are Fenwick/Corsi good indicators?
 
 
 
Edit: Table exploded.   Can someone point me in the right direction to add a table?
 

Toe Nash

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njexpress9 said:
I need some help.   I am looking to answer the following question.
 
Are Beleskey, Hayes and Connolly an upgrade over Lucic, Smith and Soderberg?  
 
Looking at 5x5 stats over the past two years, in both Fenwick/60 and Corsi/60 it appears that Beleskey, Hayes and Connolly (only 2015 data) have much higher values.   It seems to me that they might be and this does not factor in their cost.
 
What am I missing?  Are Fenwick/Corsi good indicators?
 
 
 
Edit: Table exploded.   Can someone point me in the right direction to add a table?
Well, a few things:
1. Comparing Corsi or Fenwick between different players on different teams is tough as context matters a lot. There are five players on the ice at one time, so one guy only exerts so much influence on possession. The Bruins have generally been a good possession team and off the top of my head Anaheim and Tampa are too, but Florida isn't though I think they were pretty solid last year. And then, even within one team who your linemates are matters a lot -- someone who plays with Bergeron a lot is going to look great, while someone who plays with Greg Campbell is going to look bad regardless of how good they are. Finally, who you're deployed against and where you're deployed also influences your Corsi, so a "1st pair" Dman on a bad team is going to look worse than they actually are, because they will get a lot of tough matchups and probably get a lot of faceoffs in their own zone --it's harder to get a shot attempt when you start in your own zone.
 
2. Using corsi/60 is just half the story, as you also want to pull corsi against /60 (Maybe you were going to do this before you deleted the table). Usually it's easier to look at CF% which is the raatio of the two -- so of total shot attempts for both teams while the player was on the ice, what percent were for his team? CFRel is also helpful as it is a quick adjustment for the strength of the team -- what is the player's CF% relative to the team when he's not on the ice? This will be a percent plus or minus zero.
 
3. So, to answer the question, let's go one by one:
Lucic: Never a great possession player, but not a bad one either. Over the last two years he had a 52.4% CF% and the team was a little better with him off the ice. But, a lot of his value comes in his consistently high shooting percentage and generally solid point production.
Soderberg: Pretty solid possession player and as a center he has more influence than a winger does. 52.3 CF% the last two years. He's actually comparable possession wise to Krejci the last couple years. However, he may have gotten a boost from playing a lot with Eriksson.
Smith: Tough to tell because he played a lot with Bergeron who may be the best possession player in the NHL. 
Beleskey: A good CFRel of +2.1% the last two years, however, he had a lot of ice time with Ryan Kesler who is a good possession player. 
Hayes: Negative 1.0 CFRel over the last two years, but played sporadically and on two teams before last year. His 14-15 was pretty good but it is likely too early to tell.
Connolly: Ditto, I would say. Good possession numbers but only played 66 games the last two years and on two teams.
 
My feeling is that the newcomers have a chance to influence possession more than Lucic or Smith, but it's not likely, and not as much as Soderberg. As wingers though, they won't be as important.
 
Edit: I should add that I'm not an expert on this stuff and I wrote this in kind of a hurry.