Markelle Fultz, Year Three: Currently as Inactive as Seymour

nighthob

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He hasn't been able to get on the court with the three ensuing teams. He just isn't very good.
 

the moops

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Seems like such an odd take. Okafor was a terrible defensive center who played offense like we were still in the 90's. He probably could have found a role as a 15 minute a night scorer off the bench if it weren't for the injuries.

Jaylen is a solid defender at a position of need around the league. Even if he fails to shoot 35% from three, he is a starter on a terrible team, and a first wing off the bench on a playoff team.
 

The Needler

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Seems like such an odd take. Okafor was a terrible defensive center who played offense like we were still in the 90's. He probably could have found a role as a 15 minute a night scorer off the bench if it weren't for the injuries.

Jaylen is a solid defender at a position of need around the league. Even if he fails to shoot 35% from three, he is a starter on a terrible team, and a first wing off the bench on a playoff team.
He’s a solid defender and has been an absolutely awful offensive player for all but about a 15-game stretch in his three years in the league. Whether he’s a starter is context dependent, for sure, but I’d say not seeing him as closer to the bust end of the #3 spectrum is homerism.
 

nighthob

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He was above league average in both shooting and scoring efficiency last year, so he was an offensive asset for a lot more than just the playoffs. Yes, he's been terrible this year, but he wasn't last year.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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He’s a solid defender and has been an absolutely awful offensive player for all but about a 15-game stretch in his three years in the league. Whether he’s a starter is context dependent, for sure, but I’d say not seeing him as closer to the bust end of the #3 spectrum is homerism.
He shot .395 from 3P land last year on 300+ attempts. I don't know if that's an outlier but he was a productive offensive player for more than 15 games last year.

The biggest problem with JB is that he needs the ball in his hands and that's not happening this year.
 

DannyDarwinism

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He’s in year 3. He’s got a career TS% of .540. He’s 94th out of 100 SG in ORPM. He was the #3 pick in the draft. Yeah, I really am.
If you’re going to cite Jaylen’s 2019 ORPM to draw a negative comparison with respect to Okafor, maybe you should note Okafor’s RPM placement among centers in his career. Dead last by a large margin in 2016, dead last by a huge margin in 2017, and 55th out of 58 last year. Unsurprisingly, he’s barely getting any minutes this year.

Jaylen was 13th out of 87 SGs in RPM last year, between Iggy and Beal. He hasn’t progressed they way we’d hoped so far this year, but he’s not comparable as a player or in terms of value to Okafor, who is literally one of the worst players in the league when it comes to helping his teams win basketball games.

In the interest of my mission of pimping Jacob Goldstein’s PIPM on this board, I’ll not that Jah’s career PIPM is a mind-bending -4.15. Jaylen’s is -0.05 (-1.7 this year) which is about replacement level. For some reference, there are only three guys this year with PIPMs lower than Jah’s career average, Colin Sexton, Staukas and CJ Miles.

https://wakelet.com/@JacobEGoldstein

For anyone interested who doesn’t already have this stuff bookmarked, that’s a link to a bunch of fun tools.
 

The Needler

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He was above league average in both shooting and scoring efficiency last year, so he was an offensive asset for a lot more than just the playoffs. Yes, he's been terrible this year, but he wasn't last year.
He shot .395 from 3P land last year on 300+ attempts. I don't know if that's an outlier but he was a productive offensive player for more than 15 games last year.

The biggest problem with JB is that he needs the ball in his hands and that's not happening this year.
He was .545 TS% and 101 oRTG through 55 of his 70 games. League average was .556 and 108.6. So maybe not absolutely awful, but certainly below average.
 

The Needler

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Removing a player’s 15 best games does typically cause their season long stats to suffer.
It’s pretty consistent with my statement that *except for a 15-game stretch*, he’s been awful. But you can feel free to believe his 15-game stretch of shooting .491 from 3pt and .780 from FT is more predictive and representative than the other 160 games in which he’s shot .343 and .637.
 

nighthob

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Except that your statement is still junk. He was really awful in October and January, and varying levels of average/above average/good the rest of the year. So you’re literally doing what you’re accusing the rest of us of doing.

The 19 awful games and the 15 really good ones are what happens when you’re dealing with young players. They’re inconsistent.
 

The Needler

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Except that your statement is still junk. He was really awful in October and January, and varying levels of average/above average/good the rest of the year. So you’re literally doing what you’re accusing the rest of us of doing.

The 19 awful games and the 15 really good ones are what happens when you’re dealing with young players. They’re inconsistent.
Except that you are still cherry picking. I am wholly willing to stand solely on his entire body of work and/or his current season. They both represent a bad offensive player. He’s not likely to suddenly become a good shooter or passer. I wish he would, but his body of work points to the contrary.

I mean, it’s pretty telling that the guy came into the game shooting .271 from 3 and .648 from the line. Both of those percentages went down, he was a -22, didn’t have a single assist, steal, or block, and the game thread was excited about him having a good game.
 
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nighthob

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Right, you want to ignore the second year improvement, we get it. You don’t need to keep beating the drum.
 

benhogan

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Except that you are still cherry picking. I am wholly willing to stand solely on his entire body of work and/or his current season. They both represent a bad offensive player. He’s not likely to suddenly become a good shooter or passer. I wish he would, but his body of work points to the contrary.

I mean, it’s pretty telling that the guy came into the game shooting .271 from 3 and .648 from the line. Both of those percentages went down, he was a -22, didn’t have a single assist, steal, or block, and the game thread was excited about him having a good game.
I've been critical of JB's game this season. BUT I did give him some props on the game thread last night. He looked engaged and "with it", opposed to appearing hesitant/confused like he has most of this season. I did notice his -22 and mentioned it on the thread and immediately got push back. I think Danny/Brad may have a problem brewing with Jaylen, if this keeps up his value will quickly erode. I tossed out earlier this season that Atlanta would potentially want to bring JB home and offer something like Prince/Huerter, not sure we'd get that offer if Jaylen continues to struggle.
 

Jimbodandy

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Rozier, Theis, and Hayward had similar ass plus minus numbers. How could anyone possibly unpack that.

Jaylen enters every game lately about 25 seconds before Terry.
 

The Needler

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He had the worst ORtg on the team (104.1), and as I said, no assists (fewest passes except for Semi and Yanisel, and fewest overall on a per minute), as well as no blocks, steals, or deflections. Not a very good game.
 

Big John

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If you watched JB at Cal you knew what you were getting: a super-athletic kid with much to learn about basketball. Given where he was as a rookie, I think he's made decent strides. He defends well, and while is offense is sometimes ragged, his game has sizzle.
 

bosox79

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He shot .395 from 3P land last year on 300+ attempts. I don't know if that's an outlier but he was a productive offensive player for more than 15 games last year.

The biggest problem with JB is that he needs the ball in his hands and that's not happening this year.
I'm sure it's an outlier but I'm sure he's not nearly as bad as the .270 he's shooting at now. He's only at 111 attempts.

I'm not nearly as high on Jaylen as I was at the start of the year. He's good enough when his shot his falling but he hasn't really shown much improvement. We're almost at the half way point of the season so he still has some time. I don't think you can ignore his last 15 games just like you can't ignore Rozier's last 2 months, but I think we tend to focus on those rather than the complete season. Easy to do with young players.
 

HowBoutDemSox

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HowBoutDemSox

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Fultz for Dewayne Dedmon, who says no?
If Philadelphia chooses to upgrade the roster over the next nine days, pursuing both of those things to supplement its starters will be at the top of the agenda. Atlanta Hawks big man Dewayne Dedmon has drawn the 76ers' interest, sources tell ESPN. He would bring athleticism and defense, along with shooting.

But to get him, the 76ers would likely have to do something they have so far been resistant to, per sources: trading 2017 No. 1 pick Markelle Fultz.

Fultz, who was with the team Tuesday night, remains out indefinitely rehabilitating his shoulder after being diagnosed with thoracic outlet syndrome last month, and he doesn't appear anywhere close to a return to the court. His $8.3 million contract for this season, though, could be a key piece of salary ballast in a deal to help Philadelphia get a useful piece or two at the deadline. It appears unlikely, however, that any team will be willing to give the 76ers a first-round pick of any significant value to acquire him.

Therein lies the problem for Philadelphia. On a roster devoid of midtier contracts -- nine of the 76ers' 15 players make $5 million or less -- trying to construct trades that don't involve Fultz but will still bring back talent that can help will be difficult. Perhaps the 76ers could use Chandler's $12.8 million expiring contract to do so, but that would then remove a quality rotation piece at the same time.
http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/25880364/what-philadelphia-76ers-do-trade-deadline
 

Big John

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PHI says no. They could get Dedmon for a second round pick most likely.
No, the Sixers are over the cap and must match Dedmon's $6.3M salary. Muscala won't work, since Atlanta can't reacquire him for a year. Amir would have to consent to a trade. And why would he consent to exile in Atlanta?

So if they want Dedmon (absent a buyout) it's either Fultz, or a Patton, Zhaire Smith Korkmaz package.
 

the moops

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would any team trade a 1st round pick for Fultz?
I don't think anyone would. Fultz has some value in a trade in that he has a hefty enough salary and the faint hope that he becomes decent. Can't see PHI unloading him for Dedmon though. I think he eventually gets packaged with picks for some long term salary
 

nighthob

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There is no faint hope if his medical diagnosis is real. At this point he's damaged goods owed approximately $11 million. No one is giving up a useful player for the privilege of spending $11 million on nothing.
 

PedroKsBambino

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Yeah, it's the contract that really makes him unacquirable---you'd give up a 1 for the shot at the talent somehow shining through, but I agree with nighthob there isn't going to be a team who is willing to pay $11 mil to find out.

So, most likely he stays with Philly. Next most likely they cut bait to remove the distraction. Third most likely, he's traded for a different flavor of toxic asset.
 

HomeRunBaker

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There is no faint hope if his medical diagnosis is real. At this point he's damaged goods owed approximately $11 million. No one is giving up a useful player for the privilege of spending $11 million on nothing.
Exactly. Even without the contract his value would be a mid-2nd rounder as a longshot flier. Someone will give him a second shot......but it isn't going to be at that pricetag. Once he is a min-contract guy he's going to have a shot but unless there are significant changes to him mentally I doubt it would matter.
 

nighthob

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For Philadelphia, so why would the Hawks be giving up draft picks in order to give the Sixers salary relief?
 

Mooch

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A Top 20 protected 1st, a 2nd and Simmons? That’s what they’re getting for a guy picked 1st overall? The Sixers must feel that Fultz is completely unfixable. What a great trade Ainge made.
 

Gash Prex

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Uh...I know it sounds "great" but that is an abysmal value for the #1 overall pick for 2017. The guy they could have picked and kept a #1 is potentially valued as a key piece for Davis....

Basically they traded Tatum, and top 10ish pick for a low round 1st (or 2nd) and 1 year of Ben Simmons....
 

djbayko

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Sure but this is who they picked. The Sixers got an amazing deal on a complete bust (so far). He might...might have some sort of comeback on a team like Orlando, but it wasn’t happening in Philly. I’m amazed that’s people here still think he has value. Too much baggage - a change of environment was needed for all involved.
 

bosox79

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Uh...I know it sounds "great" but that is an abysmal value for the #1 overall pick for 2017. The guy they could have picked and kept a #1 is potentially valued as a key piece for Davis....

Basically they traded Tatum, and top 10ish pick for a low round 1st (or 2nd) and 1 year of Ben Simmons....
They were cutting losses. This move on its own was a good deal for Philly.
 

cheech13

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According to Keith Smith of Yahoo the Sixers asked for Terrence Ross, but the Magic countered with Simmons and picks. That seems really dumb on the Magic's part.
 

BaseballJones

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They were cutting losses. This move on its own was a good deal for Philly.
Exactly. What's done is done. They made a bad trade in order to draft Fultz. But nothing could be done about that now. So from THIS point forward, this trade is a good one for them. A very good one actually.

If I bought a car that I thought was worth $10,000 and it immediately broke down, and was now worth just $2,000, but I managed to sell it for $6,000....then overall I lost out, but once the car was mine, getting $6,000 for a car worth $2,000 is a pretty good deal at that point.
 

Fred in Lynn

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Uh...I know it sounds "great" but that is an abysmal value for the #1 overall pick for 2017. The guy they could have picked and kept a #1 is potentially valued as a key piece for Davis....

Basically they traded Tatum, and top 10ish pick for a low round 1st (or 2nd) and 1 year of Ben Simmons....
I think you’re looking at this the wrong way. 2019 Fultz isn’t the same as 2017 Fultz. That’s just the way it is. There’s certainly an argument that keeping him would have been a lottery ticket, but they’re clearly going all in now, and depth off the bench is absolutely their primary need. Fewer adverbs is clearly (damn!) my need.
 

DannyDarwinism

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Uh...I know it sounds "great" but that is an abysmal value for the #1 overall pick for 2017. The guy they could have picked and kept a #1 is potentially valued as a key piece for Davis....

Basically they traded Tatum, and top 10ish pick for a low round 1st (or 2nd) and 1 year of Ben Simmons....
It’s fine value for 2019 Markelle Fultz though. Having execs who can move off of sunk costs is underrated. Plus there’s no way Philly could afford to pay him 10 mil next year with the risk he wouldn’t contribute at all.