I don't think Smart has a real shot at DPOY but his and the Celtics' resurgence defensively means he's effectively a lock for 1st or 2nd team all-defense, which is enough.
Marcus Smart: 4 year, $77 million extension
- Thread starter RedOctober3829
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If they did go away from a big as DPOY, would Smart be the most obvious choice as a guard/wing? Players like Matisse Thybulle and Alex Caruso seem to get a lot more attention than Smart for their elite D.
Since the return of MS (Jan 23rd), the C's are shooting .479/.365/.806 and are 20-4. They are averaging 10.9 OReb, 37.0 DReb, 26.6 assists/12.8 TO, 6.9 steals, 6.1 blocks and 114.2 points. Their point margin is +15.2.
Prior to that, the C's were shooting .447/.337/.819 and were 23-24. They were averaging 10.6 OReb, 34.9 DReb, 22.8 assists/14.1 TO, 7.4 steals, 6.8 blocks, and 107.4 points. Their point margin was +1.5.
We are seeing what happens when the C's hit 3s. A lot of that is on the shoulders of Tatum and Marcus Smart.
3P% prior to, and post Jan 23
Tatum: .311, .394
Brown: .358, .313
Horford: .285, .373
Smart: .304, .384
GWill: .424, .427
PP: .371, .406
Also APG/TO prior to and post Jan 23rd
Tatum: 3.8/3.0 to 4.9/2.5
Smart: 5.3/2.0 to 6.3/2.1
Brown: 3.1/3.0 3.7/2.5
TL: 1.8/1.3 to 2.2/0.7
AL: 3.6/1.1 to 2.7/0.9
PP: 1.8/0.7 to 2.0/0.4
GWill: 1.0/0.8 1.1/0.7
So every key Celtic outside Brown has improved in 3 point shooting. Outside of GWill, it's significant improvement too. The C's are taking 37.9 3PA/G the last 24, and making 13.8. They were at 36.0/12.1 in their first 47. They are essentially hitting 2 more 3s per game while only taking 2 more 3s per game.
On top of that, every significant Celtic has improved his assist rate while lowering his TO rate, with the exception of Al. With the Jays looking to involve their teammates more, I can't say I'm surprised by Al slipping some (box score wise)
Tatum and Horford have been completely different players since Smart came back. Smart has been completely different too, though he was starting to make shots prior to his injury. He's been doing the playmaking thing a lot more since his return, though.
White wasn't here, so no comparison.
Prior to that, the C's were shooting .447/.337/.819 and were 23-24. They were averaging 10.6 OReb, 34.9 DReb, 22.8 assists/14.1 TO, 7.4 steals, 6.8 blocks, and 107.4 points. Their point margin was +1.5.
We are seeing what happens when the C's hit 3s. A lot of that is on the shoulders of Tatum and Marcus Smart.
3P% prior to, and post Jan 23
Tatum: .311, .394
Brown: .358, .313
Horford: .285, .373
Smart: .304, .384
GWill: .424, .427
PP: .371, .406
Also APG/TO prior to and post Jan 23rd
Tatum: 3.8/3.0 to 4.9/2.5
Smart: 5.3/2.0 to 6.3/2.1
Brown: 3.1/3.0 3.7/2.5
TL: 1.8/1.3 to 2.2/0.7
AL: 3.6/1.1 to 2.7/0.9
PP: 1.8/0.7 to 2.0/0.4
GWill: 1.0/0.8 1.1/0.7
So every key Celtic outside Brown has improved in 3 point shooting. Outside of GWill, it's significant improvement too. The C's are taking 37.9 3PA/G the last 24, and making 13.8. They were at 36.0/12.1 in their first 47. They are essentially hitting 2 more 3s per game while only taking 2 more 3s per game.
On top of that, every significant Celtic has improved his assist rate while lowering his TO rate, with the exception of Al. With the Jays looking to involve their teammates more, I can't say I'm surprised by Al slipping some (box score wise)
Tatum and Horford have been completely different players since Smart came back. Smart has been completely different too, though he was starting to make shots prior to his injury. He's been doing the playmaking thing a lot more since his return, though.
White wasn't here, so no comparison.
But for the last couple months, the story in the NBA has been the incredible turnaround of the Celtics, driven in large part by their emergence as a defensive juggernaut. And Smart is the guy with two 1st Team All-NBA Defense to his resume, and the leader of that defense.
Interestingly (and I just learned this the other day when I was answering HRB's question about All-Defensive Team composition), unlike the All-Defensive Team voting which is done by players, DPOY is done by the media. So a story behind a player may carry more weight than it might for the All-Defensive Team.
thanks for posting all those stats
Smart has turned himself into the pass-first PG we all pined for
Horford is making Brad's Jan'23 decision tougher.
Amazing how consistently good Grant has been from 3 the entire season. Would like his attempts to increase, let's see if he can retain that % with volume. It's definitely worth pushing Grant and PP 3PA ahead of the playoffs
not much to complain about
Shockingly, .365 is only good for 13th since 1/23. Still, it's an improvement. Since the beginning of 2022, they are 11th at .361. Since the calendar year, they are 26-9.
His best "assist" of the night was coming out to half court to chest bump PP after he put the full court clamps on Clarkson. The entire bench was fired up, Marcus especially
I've watched that about 50 times today:
View: https://streamable.com/3rjqhs
LOVE the bench going nuts and Marcus chest bumping PP.
View: https://streamable.com/3rjqhs
LOVE the bench going nuts and Marcus chest bumping PP.
My daughter just sent me this nice picture of Marcus in a bathrobe watching Payton on D: View: https://www.instagram.com/p/CbixDh8pOG7/?utm_medium=copy_link
That was one of my favorite plays of the game. The defense on this team is infectious.
I had to do a lot of driving the last couple days and listened to (way too) many NBA podcasts while on the road and MS seemed to pick up steam in the conversation for DPOY there as well.
So it's not just the bookmakers but also (some) talking heads that push him currently. (Those things are not independent of each other ofc.)
It certainly also helps that things are not going super smoothly in Salt Lake City, so RG isn't that obvious of a choice that he used to be.
So it's not just the bookmakers but also (some) talking heads that push him currently. (Those things are not independent of each other ofc.)
It certainly also helps that things are not going super smoothly in Salt Lake City, so RG isn't that obvious of a choice that he used to be.
The Marcus case for DPOY (without much in the way of statistical insights, as I am not up on the best defensive statistics):
- He has tremendous energy and anticipation, which translates to steals
- His versatility is unparalleled for a 6'3" player. He can, at worst, hold his own defensively against everyone from Trae to Giannis, and he's way better than hold his own against most. Boston's switching defense relies on Smart's ability to pick up bigger players.
- Among guards, he is one of the league leaders in boxing out, and probably is the league leader among guards in boxing out bigs.
- He's not only the emotional leader of the league's best defense, but also a coach from the floor. It's typically Marcus calling out defensive assignments, switches, when to help vs not, etc, from the floor during play.
The first crack I think was Seth Partnow (the league's foremost Rudy Gobert apologist) writing his DPOY column and concluding that if the vote were that day he would pick Smart, then Smart talking about it on twitter. I also think it's a bit of Smart making a narrative that works, which is the idea that a guard hasn't won in like 25 years, and whether in the current league bigs who can't switch are really the best defenders (we'll ignore Bam, who can, is probably the best defender, but it right on the borders of too many games missed).
If DPOY voters want some data to support Smart's candidacy, they can use the following. Smart is tied for seventh in deflections per game at 2.9 (DeJounte Murray leads with 4), he is fourth overall in total loose balls recovered at 75 (Lamelo Ball leads at 79) and is 12th overall in total charges drawn at 15 (Blake Griffin and Kevin Love lead with 26, Derrick White is tied for second at 25).
Smart is also tied for 30th overall in DARKO +/- and is in the top 50 (46th) in LEBRON. It probably doesn't hurt that despite having a label of being a flopper as well as dirty-adjacent, Smart feels more popular within NBA circles than Gobert but that is complete conjecture.
Smart is also tied for 30th overall in DARKO +/- and is in the top 50 (46th) in LEBRON. It probably doesn't hurt that despite having a label of being a flopper as well as dirty-adjacent, Smart feels more popular within NBA circles than Gobert but that is complete conjecture.
Whether second-level brilliance or not, Marcus making a big deal about how no guard has won it since GP is working in his favor, I think. Basically making the voters stop for a minute, at least, in just voting for their favorite big.
I dont see too many of their games, but is a defensive counting stat that has Blake Griffin and Kevin Love at the top a reliable indicator of defensive prowess?
I have no clue how charges are valued or what their weighting is in advanced space. That said, DPOY feels like a body of work for the season type of award which I am guessing mostly uses counting stats as its underpinning given the well known limitations of current defensive analytics.
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DPOY seems like it's more about creating a narrative than anything else. Seems like that's really starting to happen for Marcus.