djhb20 said:
I think he's as much of a household name to Boston fans as Roberts is. Non Boston fans probably barely know either of them anymore.
Malcolm Butler vs. Dave Roberts
- Thread starter The Talented Allen Ripley
- Start date
I think he's as much of a household name to Boston fans as Roberts is. Non Boston fans probably barely know either of them anymore.
Before my time, even, but 50 years ago next month, Havlicek STOLE THE BALL!!!! Last moments of Game 7 of the ECF.MentalDisabldLst said:
What's missing in this discussion is that Roberts' stolen base never happens unless Kevin Millar draws The Walk. I guess that's like the Ayers/Hightower tackle of Lynch at the 1 yard line.
In terms of both the degree of difficulty and the impact on a team's championship hopes, Butler's play wins hands down as the greatest play in local sports history. In terms of overall Boston sports lore, I'll vote for Dave Roberts (86 years, Yankees, historic 3-0 comeback), but it's awfully close. Bobby Orr's goal is also close in terms of sheer drama and excitement, but chances were excellent that even if he doesn't score, the Bruins would still beat the overmatched Blues for the Stanley Cup
In terms of both the degree of difficulty and the impact on a team's championship hopes, Butler's play wins hands down as the greatest play in local sports history. In terms of overall Boston sports lore, I'll vote for Dave Roberts (86 years, Yankees, historic 3-0 comeback), but it's awfully close. Bobby Orr's goal is also close in terms of sheer drama and excitement, but chances were excellent that even if he doesn't score, the Bruins would still beat the overmatched Blues for the Stanley Cup
lexrageorge said:
The greatest single play in local sports history is Hail Flutie ... at least I think so
But in terms of a role player performing something significant (which i take the meaning of this thread to be), I vote for Roberts. He had one job on that team and that was his only play in that game. Butler, by that point, was pretty much playing regularly on defense in the game.
Both plays, had they gone in the other direction, would have eliminated the team. But Roberts had one chance, and one chance only, to create a positive result. It's close,by like maybe a foot
Asking to choose between Roberts and Butler is like asking which testicle I'd like to have cut off. No way to choose and why do I have to make the choice?
Butler by a mile. I'm happy Roberts got the SB of course, but never quite understood why people love that so much and ignore Millar's walk and Mueller's single, which were both far more important and difficult. It's more narrative than substance. Absent the steal and they have 1st and 2nd with no out, maybe 1st and 3rd.
This is how I see it too, the events are a little different in nature. In cinematic terms, the Roberts steal is like the moment in the Wizard of Oz when Toto escapes from the Witch's castle. It's a small but significant first step that sets a sequence of events in motion. Dorothy's win probability barely moves at all but the tide has turned.Jed Zeppelin said:
The Butler interception is more like the arrow shot in Deliverance. Things are looking very, very bad for Jon Voight with the malevolent backwoodsman on his one-yard line. Then Burt Reynolds fires the perfect center shot--no time left, no room for error--and thwop! Right through the heart. Jon Voight's win probability goes skyrocketing.
Everybody loves Toto but Burt Reynolds is the guy you need with 20 seconds left. So Butler.
It has to be Butler. The stage was so much larger for that play and it was an unparalleled combination of timing, speed, strategy and shock all at the same time. Coming two plays after the Kearse catch, which he played perfectly and got snakebit by terrible luck, the kid gets redemption.
Roberts stole a base. Butler stole a championship.
Roberts stole a base. Butler stole a championship.
The stage was far bigger for Boston fans for Roberts than the Super Bowl. 86 years, Grady Little, the Yankees, and Mariano Rivera.Mooch said:
Butler sealed the 4th championship in recent memory. Roberts helped eradicate generations of angst. Butler's contribution was bigger, but winning in 2004 was by far the biggest sports moment in Boston history. One of the biggest in baseball history. You can easily argue that Roberts' contribution wasn't nearly as important to the win, but the stage and drama and history were far greater in 2004.
SumnerH said:
This.
More specifically, I think this comes down to which sport you enjoy more for a lot of people. Football isn't interesting to me, so this is an easy call on my end. Roberts. Even if I did like football about as much as baseball, the emotional turmoil we all felt in 2004 was so much heavier than anything anyone could have been feeling on Sunday. If you say otherwise, you either don't remember 2004 very well or are lying (assuming the two sports are similar levels of enjoyment for you). The play Butler made was more difficult and had a greater direct impact on the outcome of a championship, but the moment Roberts succeeded in was the moment an entire fanbase's identity was changed forever. The two plays might not be close, but the two situations were even more so.
Jed Zeppelin said:
I love that someone turned this in to a literary analogy.
DrewDawg said:
Right, and to me the final play of the game is more important situation than Eruzione's goal with minutes remaining.
But the discussion is about Butler v Roberts ... and I stick by Roberts because absolutely everything about what he did depended on his own effort. Butler's effort was great as well, but he doesn't get into position without Browner stuffing Kearse and giving him a lane.
It's applea and oranges, but if Butler doesn't make that play they either lose for a thjird time since winning three times in four years or the Seahawks get another play. If Roberts gets thrown out, the season over and it's on to 87 years without a title
Ummm..no. There were no outs when Roberts stole 2nd. If he was thrown out, Mueller might feel free to try and pull one into the bullpen. It doesn't meet the standard you are trying to establish.E5 Yaz said:
What Roberts did depended on his own effort, but the value and consequence of his actions relied on others coming through. Butler making that play assured a championship right then and there.E5 Yaz said:
In terms of changing the likelihood of wining the series, is the Roberts steal even in the top 10? From that game alone you've got Millar's walk, Mueller's RBI, and Ortiz' HR. Then all the other crazy stuff from the next three games. Bellhorn's HR, Ortiz' walk off hit, Damon's HRs, Foulke striking out Clark...Varitek's sac fly in game 5 is probably higher. Again, I'm glad it happened, but the disproportionate love for the steal just seems like "we're so smart we can appreciate something small like a SB".
I think it's the context that matters.moondog80 said:
The Sox had the ALCS won in 2003, and managed to hand it back to the Yankees in a managerial blunder that far exceeds anything Pete Carroll did last Sunday. In response, the Sox load up for another playoff run, bringing in one of the heroes of the 2001 World Series. And it's all about to come crashing down in flames: Schilling gets hurt, and the Sox look like they're going to be swept. One of the best closers in MLB history is on the mound. Then, Millar's Walk sets of a series of improbable events that eventually lead to a historic comeback and the ending of an 86 year World Series drought. And one of the highlight events was a well executed steal against a difficult pitcher/catcher combination, by a guy who had zero at bats that entire postseason.
Yes, the steal alone changed the Sox chances of winning the title from none to miniscule. But it ended up being the signature event of the comeback.
Separately, I'm waiting for a NASCAR fan to jump in and tell us that some guy passed another guy in the 97th lap of some race in Loudon was the most incredible moment in local sports history.
The Butler play was definitely more significant at the time, arguably the biggest play in modern professional sports history.
But the context of the Roberts steal, the championship drought, getting Gumped the previous year, and getting a second chance against the mother fucking Yankees of all teams... well, that made me vote Roberts. Not a rational choice, I know.
But the context of the Roberts steal, the championship drought, getting Gumped the previous year, and getting a second chance against the mother fucking Yankees of all teams... well, that made me vote Roberts. Not a rational choice, I know.
lexrageorge said:
I understand that overall, the 2004 World Series was a bigger deal. But Roberts as the hero is just post-hoc narrative. Take probability out of it and just gauge your emotional reaction at time. Not one person reacted to the steal as passionately as they did Mueller's hit or Ortiz' HR in that game, never mind the interception. There's a reason there are no videos of Yankees fans' reaction to Roberts' steal.
Another reason that I vote Butler:
Dave Roberts was a professional base stealer. There was no surprise as to his intentions or success at that moment. Butler, on the other hand, came out of nowhere and executed an unimaginably unlikely play.
Point, Butler.
Dave Roberts was a professional base stealer. There was no surprise as to his intentions or success at that moment. Butler, on the other hand, came out of nowhere and executed an unimaginably unlikely play.
Point, Butler.
In many ways, Roberts' steal is more akin to Vinatieri's Snow Bowl FG -- a play that triggered a number of important moments that ultimately ended in a championship days later (or weeks later in the case of the Pats), but that are defining moments in helping to catalyze a complete change of history for an entire organization. They are the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand.
Butler's play has few equals: Bobby Thomson's Shot Heard Round the World, Joe Carter's GW-homer, maybe a couple others -- mainly because hte HUGE swing in win expectancy.
Butler's play has few equals: Bobby Thomson's Shot Heard Round the World, Joe Carter's GW-homer, maybe a couple others -- mainly because hte HUGE swing in win expectancy.
M
MentalDisabldLst
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canvass ali said:
This post is f'ing brilliant, I hope you stick around. "thwop!" was a nice touch.
Butler - and I don't think it is close. If Dave Roberts stole home to win game 7 of the World Series when we were out of position players and a pitcher was batting, then I would go with Roberts. I think it is the best play in Boston sports history. Havlicek/Bird steals are close but it wasn't the finals. Orr was a sweep. Flutie was a regular season game. But my judgment may be clouded by the 5,000+ times I have watched the replay this week.
Thanks MDL, it's a pleasure to be here; SoSH is an island of rational thought. So valuable in a media-driven world gone mad.MentalDisabldLst said:
When you consider the stakes, I think the Butler INT is the greatest play in Boston sports history and very possibly Super Bowl history. So Butler.
Some relevant numbers:
Dave Roberts' steal was worth +.105 game WPA, +.013 ALCS WPA, and +.007 Championship WPA (assuming a roughly 50% win probability in any given future game).
Butler's interception was worth +.870 WPA, and happened in the Superbowl.
In terms of raw championship probability added, Butler's pick is more important by several orders of magnitude. Of course, that isn't the whole question, and I think it seems pretty obvious that the impossible comeback against New York and the first World Series title in 86 years is a much bigger deal than Brady and Belichick's 4th ring with the Patriots. Which play you think was more important presumably comes down to how much more value you put on that 2004 World Series.
Dave Roberts' steal was worth +.105 game WPA, +.013 ALCS WPA, and +.007 Championship WPA (assuming a roughly 50% win probability in any given future game).
Butler's interception was worth +.870 WPA, and happened in the Superbowl.
In terms of raw championship probability added, Butler's pick is more important by several orders of magnitude. Of course, that isn't the whole question, and I think it seems pretty obvious that the impossible comeback against New York and the first World Series title in 86 years is a much bigger deal than Brady and Belichick's 4th ring with the Patriots. Which play you think was more important presumably comes down to how much more value you put on that 2004 World Series.
For all intents and purposes, the SB was over. If Butler doesn't make the catch and just deflects it to the ground, Lynch is running it on 3rd and 4th downs. Not only did Butler have to beat the receiver to the spot, he had to make a tough catch. To me, that's what differentiates the magnitude of the two plays.
I've been waiting to vote on this because I wanted to re watch the Super Bowl and the 2004 championship dvd. Like many of you I have a formulaic way of seeing this. You have two factors in the equation. 1) the magnitude of the history leading up to what made the event special and 2) the events direct ability to change the outcome of the game (was this a field goal made to win the game as time expired for example).
Let's compare the history.
The Red Sox haven't won a World Series since Moses did some stuff with the Israelites back in the day. Something about parting a Red Sea. Not a coincidence. They had always found a way to lose and here they were down 0-3 against their arch rivals. Looks like another season is going to come crashing down. The year before they lost in spectacular fashion after leading game 7 against this same team. '04 was a year that meant more than anything to any Red Sox fan alive. This was more than personal.
The Patriots had won three Super Bowls (the latest was a mere decade ago) and had been to two more. But the nation had turned against them and they were heels. Cheating cheaters who cheat! The fervor of anti-pats hatred was rapacious. It was almost to the point where it had actual mass. The Pats had lost two very close Super Bowls but still the "hadn't won anything since spy gate" manure was as fresh as it is in April in farming communities in New England. Patriots fans were sick of it. There was an anger. We wanted blood. We wanted domination. We wanted a nation full of haters to finally shut the fuck up and choke on their salty tears of defeat.
Verdict: As angry as I felt, and as much devastation I wanted the Pats to inflict, the emotions for 04 couldn't be topped. That was hope and dreams (obligatory Jeter shot) and it was about family and traditions. Winning it after losing for so long has much greater magnitude than perhaps one of the biggest FU games of our time.
Outcomes:
Pretty well covered. Dave Roberts was Luke's first step in becoming a Jedi knight, redeeming his father, and saving the Galaxy from the evil Sith emperor Belicheck. But it was just that, a first step. It helped tie up one game. They still had to win the game and then win seven more. I can think of many other important moments during those final eight games that I cherish. Ortiz and his walk off homer in the 12th and Joe Buck's call (I hate Joe Buck) is just as memorable. Now that I think about it that was pretty damn epic. The bloody sock? Damon's slam? Those are right there. And that's just the ALCS.
Malcolm Butler though sealed the win. Sure they had to kill a few seconds but let's not be too cute about this. Butler? Those were the Proton Torpedoes going right into the Death Star to seal the win in the battle of Yavin for the alliance. And like Butler that was a great shot. One in a million. Butler was a youngster coming from a no name place (University of Tatooine - Go Krayt Dragons). He was great in his small pond but now he was up against the best. Sure he could bullseye womp rats in his T-16 back home but this was an accelerated course down the death star trench, son. He didn't even have his targeting computer on. He read Wilson's eyes with the force and like the Jedi he was about to become saw the future and reacted to it getting the interception.
Verdict: this is easy. It's Butler and not even close.
Overall verdict: even though the magnitude of the Sox winning was great the steal was just too small a part of winning eight games to compare with a championship winning interception. Also, Malcolm Butler is an anagram of Luke Skywalker.
Let's compare the history.
The Red Sox haven't won a World Series since Moses did some stuff with the Israelites back in the day. Something about parting a Red Sea. Not a coincidence. They had always found a way to lose and here they were down 0-3 against their arch rivals. Looks like another season is going to come crashing down. The year before they lost in spectacular fashion after leading game 7 against this same team. '04 was a year that meant more than anything to any Red Sox fan alive. This was more than personal.
The Patriots had won three Super Bowls (the latest was a mere decade ago) and had been to two more. But the nation had turned against them and they were heels. Cheating cheaters who cheat! The fervor of anti-pats hatred was rapacious. It was almost to the point where it had actual mass. The Pats had lost two very close Super Bowls but still the "hadn't won anything since spy gate" manure was as fresh as it is in April in farming communities in New England. Patriots fans were sick of it. There was an anger. We wanted blood. We wanted domination. We wanted a nation full of haters to finally shut the fuck up and choke on their salty tears of defeat.
Verdict: As angry as I felt, and as much devastation I wanted the Pats to inflict, the emotions for 04 couldn't be topped. That was hope and dreams (obligatory Jeter shot) and it was about family and traditions. Winning it after losing for so long has much greater magnitude than perhaps one of the biggest FU games of our time.
Outcomes:
Pretty well covered. Dave Roberts was Luke's first step in becoming a Jedi knight, redeeming his father, and saving the Galaxy from the evil Sith emperor Belicheck. But it was just that, a first step. It helped tie up one game. They still had to win the game and then win seven more. I can think of many other important moments during those final eight games that I cherish. Ortiz and his walk off homer in the 12th and Joe Buck's call (I hate Joe Buck) is just as memorable. Now that I think about it that was pretty damn epic. The bloody sock? Damon's slam? Those are right there. And that's just the ALCS.
Malcolm Butler though sealed the win. Sure they had to kill a few seconds but let's not be too cute about this. Butler? Those were the Proton Torpedoes going right into the Death Star to seal the win in the battle of Yavin for the alliance. And like Butler that was a great shot. One in a million. Butler was a youngster coming from a no name place (University of Tatooine - Go Krayt Dragons). He was great in his small pond but now he was up against the best. Sure he could bullseye womp rats in his T-16 back home but this was an accelerated course down the death star trench, son. He didn't even have his targeting computer on. He read Wilson's eyes with the force and like the Jedi he was about to become saw the future and reacted to it getting the interception.
Verdict: this is easy. It's Butler and not even close.
Overall verdict: even though the magnitude of the Sox winning was great the steal was just too small a part of winning eight games to compare with a championship winning interception. Also, Malcolm Butler is an anagram of Luke Skywalker.
Malcolm Butler anagram: Melt? Or bum call? (question marks inserted for inflection)SMU_Sox said:
BigSoxFan said:
Pats wins/losses are absolutely nowhere close to pre-2004 Red Sox losses in terms of the taunting faced; despite the higher viewership, a tiny percentage of people poke fun at Super Bowl losers. Doing so was intrinsic to just about every NYY fan's demeanor prior to 2004, and the non-NYY fans would still twist the knife by talking about the "curse" or having a "at least you're used to it, so it shouldn't hurt" comment queued up.
BigSoxFan said:
I don't think it would've been nearly as significant as the 2007 heckling for blowing a perfect season, and even that was nothing compared to 2003-era Sox taunting.
Malcolm Butler anagram #2! C Tom, MB Rule Allcanvass ali said:
Maybe I should take up skiing or something. I need to get out more.
I think the taunting is comparable. Even with this win, every non-Pats fan I talk to brings up 'cheat' to put down the accomplishments. (Except for Giants fans who talk about being unbeatable in the Super Bowl).SumnerH said:
Pre-04 Red Sox had some of the whiff of the lovable/pathetic loser, like the Cubs, (except from Yankee fans' perspective). The Patriots are like some kind of evil Death Star that every football fan loves to hate. If the Patriots lost this year, combined with the 07 angst and 2010 failure to avenge, all their long run of success would have been reduced to 'cheat' and 'failed in super bowls since spygate Camerapositioninggate'.
Edit: fixed
I don't know enough about how wpa is calculated to know if there is an answer to this question but I figure if anyone knows, it's someone on here.
I'm trying to compare Butler's play to every kid's at-bat fantasy moment of hitting a walk off grand slam in game 7 of the world series, down by 3 with the bases loaded, 2 outs and a full counT (though, technically, being down 0-2 would be tougher)
does anyone know what the wpa would be on that theoretical play? Does the score matter beyond the differential? Would it be bigger than the Butler pick?
Edit: guess that was easier to Google than I thought. It definitely would not have been more wpa than the Butler pick.
I'm trying to compare Butler's play to every kid's at-bat fantasy moment of hitting a walk off grand slam in game 7 of the world series, down by 3 with the bases loaded, 2 outs and a full counT (though, technically, being down 0-2 would be tougher)
does anyone know what the wpa would be on that theoretical play? Does the score matter beyond the differential? Would it be bigger than the Butler pick?
Edit: guess that was easier to Google than I thought. It definitely would not have been more wpa than the Butler pick.