Luis Arráez and his chase at a .400 Batting Average

[Lose Remerswaal]

No, this isn’t a discussion about Jonathan Araúz, but about Marlins‘ Second Baseman Luis Arráez, who you may remember was a super utility guy for the Twins the past few years playing all four infield positions and LF. He was an All Star last year, batting .316, after three seasons between .294 and .334, so his outburst this year isn’t totally unexpected for him, but it is extraordinary and worthy of thread.

He doesn’t steal bases (9 SB, 10 CS in his career), he doesn’t strike out (7.9% in career), he walks a bit (8.7%), and has no power (ISO of .096), but he is hitting doubles this year with 15 to date.

He has 11 hits in his last 19 at bats, with four doubles (and just one walk and one K), so they aren’t finding holes in his swing, or pitching around him (yet). 4 hits last night put him at .399, so ….. so close!

No one has even batted .370 for a full season since Ichiro hit .372 in 2004. This should be fun to watch.

 

[sodenj5]

No, this isn’t a discussion about Jonathan Araúz, but about Marlins‘ Second Baseman Luis Arráez, who you may remember was a super utility guy for the Twins the past few years playing all four infield positions and LF. He was an All Star last year, batting .316, after three seasons between .294 and .334, so his outburst this year isn’t totally unexpected for him, but it is extraordinary and worthy of thread.

He doesn’t steal bases (9 SB, 10 CS in his career), he doesn’t strike out (7.9% in career), he walks a bit (8.7%), and has no power (ISO of .096), but he is hitting doubles this year with 15 to date.

He has 11 hits in his last 19 at bats, with four doubles (and just one walk and one K), so they aren’t finding holes in his swing, or pitching around him (yet). 4 hits last night put him at .399, so ….. so close!

No one has even batted .370 for a full season since Ichiro hit .372 in 2004. This should be fun to watch.

What’s the value in a primarily singles slap hitter besides not making an out? Miami currently leads the NL in Wins above Average at the 2B position, so hitting at that clip certainly means something.

It feels hollow compared to the years where we saw Miguel Cabrera chasing or winning the triple crown, or obviously Ted Williams hitting .406 and 37 home runs with a 10+ WAR season.

 

[PC Drunken Friar]

What’s the value in a primarily singles slap hitter besides not making an out? Miami currently leads the NL in Wins above Average at the 2B position, so hitting at that clip certainly means something.

It feels hollow compared to the years where we saw Miguel Cabrera chasing or winning the triple crown, or obviously Ted Williams hitting .406 and 37 home runs with a 10+ WAR season.

Well, if he keeps this up (I have my doubts), he is on pace for 8.5-8.7 WAR. That's almost always an MVP contender.

 

[TomTerrific]

What’s the value in a primarily singles slap hitter besides not making an out? Miami currently leads the NL in Wins above Average at the 2B position, so hitting at that clip certainly means something.

Yes, he's at 161 wRC+, which is pretty damn useful.

Well, if he keeps this up (I have my doubts), he is on pace for 8.5-8.7 WAR. That's almost always an MVP contender.

Fangraphs has him at 2.0 WAR through 61 games, which gives me 5.3 WAR for the season. Still useful, just maybe not MVP-level useful. How are you getting 8.5-8.7?

 

[BaseballJones]

Since outs are the currency of baseball, a guy who gets a ton of at-bats and makes very few outs is very valuable (at least from an offensive standpoint - no idea about his defense).

 

[PC Drunken Friar]

Yes, he's at 161 wRC+, which is pretty damn useful.



Fangraphs has him at 2.0 WAR through 61 games, which gives me 5.3 WAR for the season. Still useful, just maybe not MVP-level useful. How are you getting 8.5-8.7?

Baseball Reference has him at 2.8. I didn't take into account his 8 missed games. So he is on pace (according to B-Ref) for a 7.4 WAR Math is hard.

 

[Toe Nash]

Sorry...this isn't going to happen and he's probably not going to come close.

His BABIP career is .346 and his xBA this year from statcast data is .331. He's getting very lucky and it's going to regress. I don't even think we should start this talk until the ASB for anyone.

If someone hits .400 again it will be someone who either walks a lot and hits a lot of homers (removing balls in play), like Barry Bonds, so they don't have a lot of ABs to even out their BABIP luck, or it will be someone like Ichiro who makes a ton of contact, sprays singles everywhere and is fast out of the box to leg out a lot of infield singles. Ideally they'd also have an injury or something that caused them to miss a bunch of games so they were just over the PA cutoff to qualify.

Arraez is neither of those players...he's below average in most of those skills actually. He doesn't hit dingers, he doesn't leg out singles, and he doesn't walk that much so his luck is going to run out. Unless he has access to whatever magic spells Caleb Martin has in Miami that let you have athletic success at an unsustainable rate for a long time.

 

[NickEsasky]

Sorry...this isn't going to happen and he's probably not going to come close.

His BABIP career is .346 and his xBA this year from statcast data is .331. He's getting very lucky and it's going to regress. I don't even think we should start this talk until the ASB for anyone.

If someone hits .400 again it will be someone who either walks a lot and hits a lot of homers (removing balls in play), like Barry Bonds, so they don't have a lot of ABs to even out their BABIP luck, or it will be someone like Ichiro who makes a ton of contact, sprays singles everywhere and is fast out of the box to leg out a lot of infield singles. Ideally they'd also have an injury or something that caused them to miss a bunch of games so they were just over the PA cutoff to qualify.

Arraez is neither of those players...he's below average in most of those skills actually. He doesn't hit dingers, he doesn't leg out singles, and he doesn't walk that much so his luck is going to run out. Unless he has access to whatever magic spells Caleb Martin has in Miami that let you have athletic success at an unsustainable rate for a long time.

Way to yuk the yum, bud. Sports must be fun for you.

 

[Just a bit outside]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/arraez-and-let-us-swing/

Just to add some numbers to the conversation. His strikeout percentage is 5% this season. Just insane.

 

[santadevil]

This is why I like June. Stories are starting to develop for the players and this will be one to follow
Watching Walker in 1997 chase .400 was fun
I specifically remember a game that season where the opposing first baseman left a note for Larry in the dirt, along the lines of "You're not gonna hit .400 like that" after a tough day at the plate

I forgot Gwynn was right there with him
Article from July 15, 1997 from the Chicago Tribune
https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-xpm-1997-07-15-9707150175-story.html

edit/ A few days later, on July 19, his average went under .400 for the rest of the season

 

[Merkle's Boner]

Just to add some context, because I think it’s totally something we should be celebrating here in early June, here is the great Sarah Langs from last night. Pretty good company

View: https://twitter.com/slangsonsports/status/1665895244112580609?s=61&t=cV3tehmXTkju7NHB-h0Ptw

 

[Max Power]

It's fun to see a player doing his own thing in the three true outcomes environment. He's trying to be Tony Gwynn in an Aaron Judge world and it's awesome that he's making it work. The game is a more interesting product to watch with more diversity in styles of play.

 

[Tokyo Sox]

Sorry...this isn't going to happen and he's probably not going to come close.

His BABIP career is .346 and his xBA this year from statcast data is .331. He's getting very lucky and it's going to regress. I don't even think we should start this talk until the ASB for anyone.

If someone hits .400 again it will be someone who either walks a lot and hits a lot of homers (removing balls in play), like Barry Bonds, so they don't have a lot of ABs to even out their BABIP luck, or it will be someone like Ichiro who makes a ton of contact, sprays singles everywhere and is fast out of the box to leg out a lot of infield singles. Ideally they'd also have an injury or something that caused them to miss a bunch of games so they were just over the PA cutoff to qualify.

Arraez is neither of those players...he's below average in most of those skills actually. He doesn't hit dingers, he doesn't leg out singles, and he doesn't walk that much so his luck is going to run out. Unless he has access to whatever magic spells Caleb Martin has in Miami that let you have athletic success at an unsustainable rate for a long time.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/arraez-and-let-us-swing/

Just to add some numbers to the conversation. His strikeout percentage is 5% this season. Just insane.

Yeah I was coming to post the Fangraphs piece, which I read earlier today. From that, and perhaps as counterpoint to @Toe Nash :

So, the Statcast numbers say he’s going to regress. But I don’t really care, for two reasons. First, Arraez is built to confound expected statistics based on launch angle and exit velocity. We’re into the fifth season of Arraez’s major league career, and in all five of those seasons, he’s combined an absolutely trash hard-hit rate with elite xBA numbers and huge BABIPs. And beyond that, he’s outperformed his xBA in four of his five major league seasons, including this one. If that’s a fluke, it’s a fluke that’s been perpetuated over five years and nearly 1,800 plate appearances.

It's fun to see a player doing his own thing in the three true outcomes environment. He's trying to be Tony Gwynn in an Aaron Judge world and it's awesome that he's making it work. The game is a more interesting product to watch with more diversity in styles of play.

100%.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I'm not going to "yuck the yum" and say he can't keep it up, but it is super premature to already be framing his season in a "chase for .400" context. The high batting average in early June is noteworthy as Sarah Langs highlighted in her tweet. That's about it though. I happened to catch Sportscenter this morning just as they were doing the Marlins highlights and the whole thing was Arraez's at bats and his resulting batting average after each of his three hits. Seemed excessive.

Check back in in August and if he's still in the .380+ range, then the daily, at bat by at bat ".400 watch" makes sense.

 

[BringBackMo]

Great thread! I was surprised George Brett wasn't on that list, but "through 61 games" is a pretty arbitrary sample. Found this cool story that highlighted Brett's otherworldly 1980. And don't forget that Tony Gwynn made a hell of a run at it in the 1994 season that ended in August.

Look at these highlights from Brett:

Brett's amazing 1980 season
Brett's 1980 campaign is one of the greatest in baseball in the past 40 years.

He finished at .390, leading the major leagues in average, on-base percentage (.454) and slugging percentage (.664). His 1.118 OPS was more than 100 points better than anyone else's that season.

And though he didn't hit .400 ...

• He hit .437 with 118 hits and six strikeouts in 270 at-bats against right-handed pitching.

• From May 30 to August 30 (a stretch that included a stint on the DL), Brett hit .470 (!) with 116 hits in 61 games (in which the Royals went 46-15). He hit .494 in the month of July.

• He hit .469 with 61 hits and five strikeouts with runners in scoring position.

• He hit .421 in the first five innings of games.

• He hit .425 with 22 RBIs in 10 games against the Yankees. That was foreshadowing for the postseason, when his three-run home run against Rich Gossage in Game 3 of the ALCS helped put the Royals into the World Series.

And Gwynn

The closest anyone has come to finishing with a .400 average since Williams was Tony Gwynn, who hit .394 in 1994, a season ended early by a work stoppage.

The latest Gwynn was at .400 was at the end of play on May 15. He spent most of June, July and early August hovering in the .380s and .390s. The strike began on Aug. 12 and wiped out the rest of the season. Gwynn's San Diego Padres lost 45 games.

Gwynn finished with 419 at-bats and would have needed to have gone 35-for-81 (.432) to be at .400 when he reached 500 at-bats. That would have been difficult but not impossible, given Gwynn's skills with the bat (it should be noted he went 24-for-55 to start the 1995 season, a stretch that would have bumped his 1994 average to .399). We'll never know if he could have done it.

Can Arráez do it? Well...I'll be rooting for him.

 

[PC Drunken Friar]

Just to add some context, because I think it’s totally something we should be celebrating here in early June, here is the great Sarah Langs from last night. Pretty good company

View: https://twitter.com/slangsonsports/status/1665895244112580609?s=61&t=cV3tehmXTkju7NHB-h0Ptw

I know that 61 games is arbitrary, but let's see how those guys finished.

Chipper- .364, 1.044 OPS, 176 OPS+, 7.3 WAR- 12th MVP Voting
Walker- .366, 1.172 OPS, 178 OPS+, 9.8 WAR- Won MVP
O'Neil- .359, 1.064, 171, 4.3, 5th MVP
Carew- .339, .820, 128, 2.3
Gwynn- .379, .957, 156, 4.3, 6th MVP
Alomar- .328, .938, 136, 5.3, 20th MVP

Arraez- .399, .945, 161, 2.8

 

[Daniel_Son]

Great thread! I was surprised George Brett wasn't on that list, but "through 61 games" is a pretty arbitrary sample. Found this cool story that highlighted Brett's otherworldly 1980. And don't forget that Tony Gwynn made a hell of a run at it in the 1994 season that ended in August.

Look at these highlights from Brett:



And Gwynn

Can Arráez do it? Well...I'll be rooting for him.

How's the craft beer scene in Miami? Maybe he'll get a beer named after him.

 

[mauf]

Just to add some context, because I think it’s totally something we should be celebrating here in early June, here is the great Sarah Langs from last night. Pretty good company

View: https://twitter.com/slangsonsports/status/1665895244112580609?s=61&t=cV3tehmXTkju7NHB-h0Ptw

This is a surprising stat to me. Growing up, it felt that more years than not we had someone flirting with .400 around June 1 (granted, there were 5-6 fewer games played at that point back then). I remember Carew’s ‘83 season but was surprised to see no other entries from around that time.

 

[Merkle's Boner]

I know that 61 games is arbitrary, but let's see how those guys finished.

Chipper- .364, 1.044 OPS, 176 OPS+, 7.3 WAR- 12th MVP Voting
Walker- .366, 1.172 OPS, 178 OPS+, 9.8 WAR- Won MVP
O'Neil- .359, 1.064, 171, 4.3, 5th MVP
Carew- .339, .820, 128, 2.3
Gwynn- .379, .957, 156, 4.3, 6th MVP
Alomar- .328, .938, 136, 5.3, 20th MVP

Arraez- .399, .945, 161, 2.8

Chipper finishing 12th with that year is crazy.

 

[Sad Sam Jones]

This is a surprising stat to me. Growing up, it felt that more years than not we had someone flirting with .400 around June 1 (granted, there were 5-6 fewer games played at that point back then). I remember Carew’s ‘83 season but was surprised to see no other entries from around that time.

For some reason I distinctly remember Wayne Tolleson's name in the newspaper atop the league batting averages, batting over .400. I knew it couldn't have been any later than early or mid May. Nope, it was only mid-April in 1987, just two weeks into the season. Good God, I wish I could reconfigure my brain to remember things that might actually be useful instead.

 

[Max Power]

For some reason I distinctly remember Wayne Tolleson's name in the newspaper atop the league batting averages, batting over .400. I knew it couldn't have been any later than early or mid May. Nope, it was only mid-April in 1987, just two weeks into the season. Good God, I wish I could reconfigure my brain to remember things that might actually be useful instead.

This made me look up John Olerud to see how late in the season he was hitting .400. He went all the way until August 2, 1993. That was even better than I thought he did.

 

[Tuff Ghost]

The .400 chase I remember most is John Olerud in 1993. Here is where his batting average stood at the end of the day at the start of a few months:
5/1: .458
6/1: .400
7/1: .407
8/1: .402

Last day at .400 or above was 8/2 (.400), slipped to .397 on 8/3 and never reached .400 again the rest of the way. His final average was .363.

This Sportsnet.ca article has a little video graph that compares his season to Ted Williams' 1941 season.

Edit: I was a little slow, Max Power beat me to it!

 

[OurF'ingCity]

Officially over .400 with a 2-for-4 day today.

 

[jmm57]

In 2000 Nomar got to .403 on 7/20, and as high as .394 on 8/6.

That and Olerud are the two that stand out to me.

 

[JM3]

.401 when 2nd in the majors is .332 (Bichette) is pretty nice.

MLB average is .247 this year (it was .262 in the AL in '41).

Olerud year AL avg .263, Nomar year .270.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

.401 when 2nd in the majors is .332 (Bichette) is pretty nice.

MLB average is .247 this year (it was .262 in the AL in '41).

Olerud year AL avg .263, Nomar year .270.

I expected banning shifts would have increased batting averages league wide, but it doesn’t seem to be so outside of this guy

 

[brs3]

I love this. Aside from checking if Judge homered the night before during last season, when was the last time there was an interesting reason to check on an individual player every day? The analytical look at this is laugh out loud funny. Is it too early? Is he getting cheapy hits? Do I care? Someone is hitting .400!

 

[Toe Nash]

Way to yuk the yum, bud. Sports must be fun for you.

There are plenty of fun things about sports to follow and I enjoy them much. This is wildly premature and only exists because MLB did a marketing push about it a couple days ago.

Why don't we have a thread about Pete Alonso's chase for 62 HR? He is on pace for 58.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

There are plenty of fun things about sports to follow and I enjoy them much. This is wildly premature and only exists because MLB did a marketing push about it a couple days ago.

Why don't we have a thread about Pete Alonso's chase for 62 HR? He is on pace for 58.

Please feel free to start that thread. As mentioned above, following Aaron Judge last season was a blast, even for Red Sox fans

 

[Max Power]

There are plenty of fun things about sports to follow and I enjoy them much. This is wildly premature and only exists because MLB did a marketing push about it a couple days ago.

Why don't we have a thread about Pete Alonso's chase for 62 HR? He is on pace for 58.

Hitting 60 homers in the NL isn't a big deal.

 

[OurF'ingCity]

There are plenty of fun things about sports to follow and I enjoy them much. This is wildly premature and only exists because MLB did a marketing push about it a couple days ago.

Why don't we have a thread about Pete Alonso's chase for 62 HR? He is on pace for 58.

IMO, because players hitting a lot of homers is something we’re all used to and a player hitting .400 is something that has almost never happened and would be even more impressive in the three-true-outcomes era.

 

[NickEsasky]

There are plenty of fun things about sports to follow and I enjoy them much. This is wildly premature and only exists because MLB did a marketing push about it a couple days ago.

Why don't we have a thread about Pete Alonso's chase for 62 HR? He is on pace for 58.

Mainly because Bonds is the home run champ, I’d imagine. But if you think it’s not a “pure” record then go for it. I’m sure people will follow along and have fun with it.

 

[JM3]

I expected banning shifts would have increased batting averages league wide, but it doesn’t seem to be so outside of this guy

Up from .243 last year to .247 this year, so yeah, not so much. Scoring is up a bit from 4.28 to 4.54.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/bat.shtml

 

[Kliq]

I love this. Aside from checking if Judge homered the night before during last season, when was the last time there was an interesting reason to check on an individual player every day? The analytical look at this is laugh out loud funny. Is it too early? Is he getting cheapy hits? Do I care? Someone is hitting .400!

Yes; I'll add that Pujols make a last-second chase for 700 career homers was also hugely entertaining last season.

 

[brs3]

Yes; I'll add that Pujols make a last-second chase for 700 career homers was also hugely entertaining last season.

Great point. That was super fun. His entire resurgence was amazing.

 

[Al Zarilla]

Hitting 60 homers in the NL isn't a big deal.

For a 'roid free guy? In other words, nowadays?

 

[LogansDad]

2-4 today, up to .403

 

[iddoc]

The first .400 chase I remember was Rod Carew in 1977, when he finished at .388. Surprised to see his 1983 season instead on the list above.

 

[lexrageorge]

In the useless FWIW bit of trivia, Wade Boggs did bat 0.400 over the course of a calendar year. From June 8, 1985 to June 7, 1986:

165 games, 654 at bats, 262 hits, 0.401.

 

[tims4wins]

In the useless FWIW bit of trivia, Wade Boggs did bat 0.400 over the course of a calendar year. From June 8, 1985 to June 7, 1986:

165 games, 654 at bats, 262 hits, 0.401.

View: https://www.instagram.com/p/CtP5b_1OnoG/?igshid=ZWQyN2ExYTkwZQ==

 

[GrandSlamPozo]

For some reason I still remember Clint Barmes chasing .400 for a little while in his rookie season with the Rockies before completely falling off a cliff. I looked it up and it was actually a shorter chase than I remembered -- he was last at .400 on May 13 after 33 team games. (He played all 33 games and had a slash line of .400/.445/.652 in 148 Plate Appearances.) By the end of the season his BA dropped all the way down to .289 even though he only played 81 games. He stuck around for 13 seasons and finished his career with a BA of .245 (while spending the majority of his career with Colorado).

 

[LogansDad]

1-4 today, down to an even .400.

He could get 1 hit in every remaining game, and .400 wouldn't even be a thought by the end of the year. I think breaking .400 is one of the most impressive record in sports.

 

[GruberTaggedHim]

I've wondered for a couple of years if Bichette could get close. The upside is he has power, so doesn't have to rely completely on BABIP. Plus he has a bit of speed. The downside is, the guy simply refuses to take walks.

Olerud's run was amazing. Then the Jays screwed him up trying to get him to pull the ball more often.

 

[Just a bit outside]

I've wondered for a couple of years if Bichette could get close. The upside is he has power, so doesn't have to rely completely on BABIP. Plus he has a bit of speed. The downside is, the guy simply refuses to take walks.

Olerud's run was amazing. Then the Jays screwed him up trying to get him to pull the ball more often.

Bichette’s sprint speed is in the 40th percentile. Not very fast anymore.

 

[GruberTaggedHim]

Now that I think about it, having Olerud hitting 5th in that 1993 lineup was... sub-optimal..

 

[GruberTaggedHim]

Bichette’s sprint speed is in the 40th percentile. Not very fast anymore.

Yeah, I remember he was "fast" or at least a good baserunner not long ago (25/26 stolen bases in 2021). Weird for a 25-yr old to just kinda... slow down.

 

[Just a bit outside]

Yeah, I remember he was "fast" or at least a good baserunner not long ago (25/26 stolen bases in 2021). Weird for a 25-yr old to just kinda... slow down.

It is odd. He was 70-84 percentile his first three years and then 52 last year and 40 this year. Quite a precipitous drop.

 

[InstaFace]

Yes; I'll add that Pujols make a last-second chase for 700 career homers was also hugely entertaining last season.

Absolutely bonkers, that was. The guy whose 2016 through 2021 seasons had largely been a waste, who hadn't topped a .330 OBP since 2012 (when his first decade in the bigs he had averaged a .426 OBP!), suddenly finds the fountain of youth and hits .270 / .345 / .550 / .895 for a 151 OPS+ in 351 PAs at age 42. I don't know what's the bigger mystery: what happened to him circa 2011-2012, how he was able to pull it back together a decade (!) later, or why he didn't just keep playing after showing he still had it after all.

Way more fun than Aaron Judge, for one reason: Who the hell was rooting against Albert Pujols? Nobody, that's who. 700 home runs brought everyone together. The same was decidedly not true of Judge's chase, and it was easy to be a hater.

The only people who could possibly be grumps about Arraez chasing .400 are probably Red Sox fans who don't want Splinter's place in history diminished a bit. And, uh, I don't see any of those around here, which means they probably don't exist.

 

[epraz]

For some reason I still remember Clint Barmes chasing .400 for a little while in his rookie season with the Rockies before completely falling off a cliff.

The cliff was probably related to this injury, which was very much not caused by an ATV

https://www.espn.com/mlb/news/story?id=2081549

 

[sabrhagen99]

Arraez down to .397. Despite going 2 for 4 in 3 of his last 5 games and having a hit in the other two. That was only .381 (8 for 21). THAT'S how hard .400 would be.