Lucic and the art of aging gracefully

[BigMike]

It was mentioned in the Krejci thread, so I figured I'd start a new one for this discussion
 
 

Lucic I think will age horribly. Marchand probably too. Players like Bergeron, Krejci, etc less so.

 

 
At the risk of getting off topic too far I agree completely, esp with Lucic. I'm not sure I'd be all that upset if he walks in 2016 because someone is going to give him big money.

 
Add me to the choir on this one.  I have advocated dealing Lucic this summer even, as I view him as someone who will age very poorly.  I tend to think he is going to be largely washed up by age 30
 
In some ways I love the toughness, leadership, Milan brings to the table. So maybe you let him play out the string,  but if/when the Bruins decide they need more skating, and scoring,  I think Lucic would be the guy to go.
 
I just can't imagine anyway his next contract will not be a complete disaster for whomever gives it to him,  and I don't want to be that team.

 

[Silverdude2167]

His game now is great with his toughness and ability to score provided someone else creates for him, but I am afraid as to how his game will translate if the anti fighting NHL starts to increase the punishments for fights.
 
5 min is bad now for a top line winger and Lucic has a temper as we all know and if we start getting into situation where you are out for 10+ minutes or the game because you fought then I can't see him surviving very long in the league.

 

[allstonite]

I agree that he won't age well. He has trouble a lot of the time remaining healthy through the season. It's never anything big but he seems to wear down. It's been better the last couple of seasons but it is concerning. I do think his temper has actually improved the last couple of seasons but he still doesn't get the benefit of the doubt with the refs. He has a reputation as a hothead and seems to still pick up matching penalties when the other team goads him even if it looks like he doesn't deserve anything.
 
It's going to be a tough call. He's so valuable and there are so few players like him in the league. I don't think the Bruins will try to sign him early. Probably best to let him play out his contract in case his game does fall off a cliff. Trading him also might be a great option if they don't intent to resign him. He's a player most teams are trying to find a replica of. They could probably get a decent haul for him if they think he won't last much longer.

 

[The Napkin]

Add me to the choir on this one.  I have advocated dealing Lucic this summer even

 
Just for reference he has a modified NTC
 
Also interesting is that he's trying out a visor in captain's practices. Wonder what that means as far as his fighting going forward.
 
https://twitter.com/AmalieBenjamin/status/507530881524068354

 

[Toe Nash]

His game now is great with his toughness and ability to score provided someone else creates for him, but I am afraid as to how his game will translate if the anti fighting NHL starts to increase the punishments for fights.
 
5 min is bad now for a top line winger and Lucic has a temper as we all know and if we start getting into situation where you are out for 10+ minutes or the game because you fought then I can't see him surviving very long in the league.

If the penalties increase for fighting, you would probably just see games like the playoffs, where the stakes are higher and thus fewer players fight. That is, players want to avoid losing 5 minutes in the playoffs far more than losing 5 in the regular season, so they just don't fight. Lucic has 2 fights in his career in the playoffs and none since 2010. I think he would be fine.

 

[Toe Nash]

This is all for naught because regardless of what the right move is they are extending him. We've heard absolutely zero rumor he would be dealt, ever. They see him as part of the core and are going to treat him like they treated Krejci, Bergeron, Chara, Seidenberg, Rask, for better or for worse. I would be incredibly shocked if he left without being completely cooked.

 

[TSC]

This is all for naught because regardless of what the right move is they are extending him. We've heard absolutely zero rumor he would be dealt, ever. They see him as part of the core and are going to treat him like they treated Krejci, Bergeron, Chara, Seidenberg, Rask, for better or for worse. I would be incredibly shocked if he left without being completely cooked.

 
So that means he'll never be traded?
 
Nomar was never going to be traded.
 
Seguin was signed to a new, huge contract before he was traded.
 
Never head 'nuthin about Logan Mankins being gone.
 
And how do you know how Lucic is regarded by the front office? Are you privileged to their conversations? No one in this town is above being traded with the only possible exceptions of Tom Brady, Patrice Bergeron, and Dustin Pedroia.
 
And maybe he isn't traded, but I would bet there's a greater than 50% chance he isn't re-signed when his contract is up. A player with his skillset does not age gracefully. 

 

[kenneycb]

If the penalties increase for fighting, you would probably just see games like the playoffs, where the stakes are higher and thus fewer players fight. That is, players want to avoid losing 5 minutes in the playoffs far more than losing 5 in the regular season, so they just don't fight. Lucic has 2 fights in his career in the playoffs and none since 2010. I think he would be fine.

Why would stakes be higher if literally nothing else changes in the regular season?

 

[Toe Nash]

It's my educated hunch, sure. But I think letting him go would be like letting Thornton go times a million. I'd take the other side of that bet. They've had enough cap crunches this year and we heard rumors about Boychuk and Marchand, but not the player who is paid more. Not sure what the Red Sox or Patriots have to do with it. 

 

[Toe Nash]

Why would stakes be higher if literally nothing else changes in the regular season?

Because playoff games are more important than regular season games?

 

[kenneycb]

Because playoff games are more important than regular season games?

But they're not playing playoff games.  They're playing regular season games.  Everything is constant outside of penalties for fighting theoretically being higher.
 
Edit: My problem is suggesting the intensity would for some reason be higher in the regular season if fighting was taken out.  But this is getting far off course.

 

[Saints Rest]

 
Just for reference he has a modified NTC
 
Also interesting is that he's trying out a visor in captain's practices. Wonder what that means as far as his fighting going forward.
 
https://twitter.com/AmalieBenjamin/status/507530881524068354

Man, that's a terrible picture:  He looks like Andre the Giant in Princess Bride on skates.

 

[TSC]

It's my educated hunch, sure. But I think letting him go would be like letting Thornton go times a million. I'd take the other side of that bet. They've had enough cap crunches this year and we heard rumors about Boychuk and Marchand, but not the player who is paid more. Not sure what the Red Sox or Patriots have to do with it. 

 
Shawn Thornton or Joe Thornton?
 
Because Milan Lucic wishes he had half the talent Joe Thornton has. Joe Thornton is a franchise player. Milan Lucic is a complimentary piece.
 
And I was simply pointing out how absurd your statement was that "we've never heard trade rumors about him, so it will NEVER HAPPEN." Players get traded all the fucking time without there being some kind of smoke before the fire. It was a stupid statement that you deserved to be called out on.

 

[Dummy Hoy]

I fail to see how the fighting crackdown would be a huge deal...Looch averages about 6 fights a season.
 
Before people start telling me he won't age gracefully, can we get some data to back that up? That may be right, but let's not just say that without any supporting evidence.

 

[Toe Nash]

 
Shawn Thornton or Joe Thornton?
 
Because Milan Lucic wishes he had half the talent Joe Thornton has. Joe Thornton is a franchise player. Milan Lucic is a complimentary piece.
 
And I was simply pointing out how absurd your statement was that "we've never heard trade rumors about him, so it will NEVER HAPPEN." Players get traded all the fucking time without there being some kind of smoke before the fire. It was a stupid statement that you deserved to be called out on.

Shawn.
 
My impression based on what the media, fans and Chia have said and done is that they all see Lucic as more than a complimentary piece, and the physicality is a huge part of this. Part of the reason I think this is we have never heard a single rumor about him EVEN THOUGH he is arguably overpaid and has put up some complete no-shows at inopportune times. Forgive me for stating my opinion as fact but I would hope that reasonable people could read it as such, especially when I wrote about how "I would be incredibly shocked."
 
Obviously I don't know and no one is really untouchable. Maybe I see the media as more of a mouthpiece for the FO than they really are. I just think they would have tried shopping him already when they've had major cap crunches. Maybe they have and kept it quiet. 

 

[TSC]

Shawn.
 
My impression based on what the media, fans and Chia have said and done is that they all see Lucic as more than a complimentary piece, and the physicality is a huge part of this. Part of the reason I think this is we have never heard a single rumor about him EVEN THOUGH he is arguably overpaid and has put up some complete no-shows at inopportune times. Forgive me for stating my opinion as fact but I would hope that reasonable people could read it as such, especially when I wrote about how "I would be incredibly shocked."
 
Obviously I don't know and no one is really untouchable. Maybe I see the media as more of a mouthpiece for the FO than they really are. I just think they would have tried shopping him already when they've had major cap crunches. Maybe they have and kept it quiet. 

 
Well obviously they wouldn't have considered trading him yet, because he still provides on ice value close to what he's being paid. 
 
The idea that was bandied about was him being traded prior to his final year, before he becomes a FA to get some return value for him. He's still a great player for his skillset. He's still a key player on this team. But in 2 years - staring down the barrel of a new contract - that may not be in the case. At which point, he would probably return great value relative to what he provided to the team.

 

[Jack Sox]

I fail to see how the fighting crackdown would be a huge deal...Looch averages about 6 fights a season.
 
Before people start telling me he won't age gracefully, can we get some data to back that up? That may be right, but let's not just say that without any supporting evidence.

Because he's big and slow footed? I guess I see that logic but like DH here, I'm not entirely sure that Lucic is any more likely or less likely to hit a proverbial wall of decline (I'm even more confused by the notion of Marchand aging poorly) though I'm willing to be convinced.

 

[j44thor]

Because he's big and slow footed? I guess I see that logic but like DH here, I'm not entirely sure that Lucic is any more likely or less likely to hit a proverbial wall of decline (I'm even more confused by the notion of Marchand aging poorly) though I'm willing to be convinced.

 
But he is already big and slow footed, he isn't going to get any smaller/weaker anytime soon and while he may lose even more foot speed he is still going to be an excellent possession player who can also lay the body like few forwards. If only he could figure out how to use his body in front of the net he could have several productive years.

 

[TSC]

1. Here's my concern with Lucic:

 

• If he's slow on his feet now, how much worse is he going to get as he ages? He's going to make Glen Murray look like Pavel Bure. 2014 Glen Murray.
• That being said - you can't be a physical player if you can't get into position to be physical. If Lucic loses much more foot speed, he will quickly become very ineffective at being physical.
• It's hard to be a good possesion player when you're losing footraces to pucks.
• Lucic does a lot of things well. He doesn't do much very well. Any degradation in skills will make him a negative in that skill set. He doesn't have a great shot, he doesn't have great vision, he's not a playmaker, etc.
• Lucic, for all of his current positives, is not an intelligent player. Players who last in this league, and who adapt as they lose some of their youthful ability are the players who can adjust their game as age takes away physical ability. Lucic has shown me nothing to think that he has the kind of intelligence to adapt his game as his physical advantages decrease.

I love what Lucic has been for the Bruins. But you can't look at him as a player and think that he has any more room for growth in his game. He's already plateaued as a player. He also has a unique skillset that (to me) makes him much more likely to fall off a cliff than your average player.
 
I hope I'm wrong. I hope Lucic finds that next gear. But I've seen nothing over the last two or three years to think he can get to that level.

 

[McDrew]

To use a metaphor (and to mirror what other people have said).  Great pitchers like Maddux, Schilling, etc have extended their careers by learning control and using that instead of their overpowering fastball (which goes with age).  I don't know the exact parallel in hockey, but Lucic is the same player now as he was 3 years ago.  He's good across the board, and has a plus physical presence, but when he starts to degrade, how is he going to change his skillset to make him continue to remain valuable? 

 

[lexrageorge]

The reason Lucic is valued by this team is that big, physical players that can score 25 goals and put up 60 points are not that easy to come by.  Also, the team's centers are all relatively undersized (aside from Soderberg), so having some physical play from the wing is important to this team.  Granted, he looked terrible during the Montreal series (I wanted him gone after that).  But he did have 3 goals in 5 games against the Red Wings, so it's not like he can't play against skilled teams.  As for his penalties, he only had 4 penalty minutes all throughout last season's playoffs, and only 14 during the 22 game run to the Finals the prior season.  So I don't think it's fair to criticize him for taking unnecessary penalties during the playoffs.  
 
He's not the fastest skater, but he does have a strong stride, and a quick shot.  He's still only 26, so it's probably going to a be at least a few years before his decline.  A telling sign will be whether the team extends him next summer, which is a definite possibility if they can keep the years down.  Julien, Chiarelli, Neely have always been pretty positive towards him.  While that means nothing in many cases, I'm with the posters that would not be surprised if he's still with the team 4 or 5 years down the road.  Then again, I would not be shocked if he's traded, either. 

 

[veritas]

Before people start telling me he won't age gracefully, can we get some data to back that up? That may be right, but let's not just say that without any supporting evidence.

 
Agreed. There have been plenty of big forwards who aged gracefully and were able to be effective despite being slow in their old age. Jagr, Iginla, Doan, Bertuzzi, etc. They all had to adapt the way they played, but it's possible. Betruzzi is the only player in that list similar to Lucic in terms of style/talent and he was an effective player until he was 37. In fact, the only below average sized forward I can remember who was effective into his late 30's (in the modern NHL) is Marty St Louis. He seems to be the exception rather than the rule.
 
(Recchi was arguably a tad short, but towards the end of his career he was built like a brick shithouse, being effective with strength and guile despite being one of the slowest players in the league)
 
I think it's funny that people wanted to sign 37 year old Iginla to a 3 year deal but have concerns about Lucic being washed up by 30

 

[TSC]

 
Agreed. There have been plenty of big forwards who aged gracefully and were able to be effective despite being slow in their old age. Jagr, Iginla, Doan, Bertuzzi, etc. They all had to adapt the way they played, but it's possible. Betruzzi is the only player in that list similar to Lucic in terms of style/talent and he was an effective player until he was 37. In fact, the only below average sized forward I can remember who was effective into his late 30's (in the modern NHL) is Marty St Louis. He seems to be the exception rather than the rule.
 
(Recchi was arguably a tad short, but towards the end of his career he was built like a brick shithouse, being effective with strength and guile despite being one of the slowest players in the league)
 
I think it's funny that people wanted to sign 37 year old Iginla to a 3 year deal but have concerns about Lucic being washed up by 30

 
Even being 37, Iginla outscored Lucic this year.
 
Comparing Lucic to Iginla and JAGR is laughable. You're talking about two generational talents. By the time Iginla was the same age as Lucic is now, he already had a 50+ goal season, a 40+ goal season, and came in 2nd for the Lady Byng. I'm not even going to attempt to point out how fucking stupid it is to try and compare Lucic and Jagr. 
 
Bertuzzi may be a good comp, and look at what he's done over the last 7 or so seasons (his age 30 season and up). 14 goals, 18, 15, 16, 14, 9. He's also missed almost 2 entire seasons due to injury. Yea, that's definitely a player I want to invest in for his age 30+ seasons.
 
Your entire argument is stupid and sucks.

 

[veritas]

 
Even being 37, Iginla outscored Lucic this year.
 
Comparing Lucic to Iginla and JAGR is laughable. You're talking about two generational talents. By the time Iginla was the same age as Lucic is now, he already had a 50+ goal season, a 40+ goal season, and came in 2nd for the Lady Byng. I'm not even going to attempt to point out how fucking stupid it is to try and compare Lucic and Jagr. 
 
Bertuzzi may be a good comp, and look at what he's done over the last 7 or so seasons (his age 30 season and up). 14 goals, 18, 15, 16, 14, 9. He's also missed almost 2 entire seasons due to injury. Yea, that's definitely a player I want to invest in for his age 30+ seasons.
 
Your entire argument is stupid and sucks.

 
Except I didn't compare them, I clearly said Bertuzzi was the only similar player in terms of talent and style. It's worth considering players of all talent levels when trying to determine what kinds of players age gracefully. Calm down...
 
edit: And while you're at it, maybe come up with some comparable players to make your argrument?

 

[Toe Nash]

Some quotes from Chiarelli backing up my point earlier that they see him as part of the core. Again, I'd be shocked if he's not a Bruin on into his 30s, for better or for worse:
 

 
 
“Well, he’s another guy that we like, and obviously I consider him a part of the backbone of this franchise,” Chiarelli said. “So eventually we’ll get around to that. “We’ve got a lot of things we have to do and that’s the business of hockey, and you know unfortunately, and this doesn’t apply to (Lucic), this is generally speaking, unfortunately when you’re in the position of success that we’ve had and players are at an age that they’re commanding, based on their years of service, they’re commanding certain salaries, you have to make tough decisions. But, you know, for (Lucic), we’ll get him done when his time comes around.”

Read more at: http://nesn.com/2014/09/bruins-gm-milan-lucic-part-of-the-backbone-of-this-franchise/

 

[TSC]

 
Except I didn't compare them, I clearly said Bertuzzi was the only similar player in terms of talent and style. It's worth considering players of all talent levels when trying to determine what kinds of players age gracefully. Calm down...
 
edit: And while you're at it, maybe come up with some comparable players to make your argrument?

 
You can't just throw out HoF players and say "well, they aged well..."
 
Bertuzzi is actually a pretty good comp for Lucic. Bertuzzi had a bit more scoring touch than Lucic though.
 
http://www.hockey-reference.com/players/b/bertuto01.html
 
Bertuzzi absolutely dropped off after his age 30 season. Injuries, declining skills, etc. He's still a useful player, but not someone who you invest big money and a long term contract in.
 
If the Bruins can keep Lucic on a short term deal (3-4) years, I would do cartwheels. So long as they know at the end of that deal he's probably gone. Keeping Lucic for big money past age 30 is a huge, huge risk.

 

[veritas]

 
You can't just throw out HoF players and say "well, they aged well..."
 
Bertuzzi is actually a pretty good comp for Lucic. Bertuzzi had a bit more scoring touch than Lucic though.
 
http://www.hockey-reference.com/players/b/bertuto01.html
 
Bertuzzi absolutely dropped off after his age 30 season. Injuries, declining skills, etc. He's still a useful player, but not someone who you invest big money and a long term contract in.
 
If the Bruins can keep Lucic on a short term deal (3-4) years, I would do cartwheels. So long as they know at the end of that deal he's probably gone. Keeping Lucic for big money past age 30 is a huge, huge risk.

 
I do agree with you that a long term deal keeping him well into his 30's would be a bad idea, but really that applies to most players. There's a not insignificant chance one of the Bergeron/Krejci deals is going to look really bad over the last couple of years.
 
Most players start to decline, many very significantly, in their early 30's. My point is that I don't really see any evidence that Lucic's size and/or style makes him more susceptible to this. And really there are very very few comparable players to Lucic anyway.