Lineup Fun

[nvalvo]

Lineups don't matter, the sabermetricians say, or matter fairly little. But even if lineup construction is something of a frivolous exercise, that doesn't mean it isn't fun to talk about.
 
(I don't start threads very often — I won't be offended if the dopes/mods feel this is better elsewhere or not at all. I started writing this in the CF thread, and then realized it made more sense as a freestanding thread...   ) 
 
I was hoping this thread could be a venue for discussion of (hopefully) how brilliant Farrell's lineup choices are once the season starts, but also our own ideas. 
 
Here's what I came up with. The slash lines shown are career platoon splits, except for Bogaerts, for whom I used 2013 AAA numbers — not because anyone thinks he will hit that well in 2014, but because it gives some qualitative sense of his likely platoon split. 
 
Against RHP
 
Nava (.292/.390/.443)
Pedroia (.297/.357/.449)
Ortiz (.296/.399/.581)
Napoli (.252/.348/.492) and sometimes Carp (.260/.337/.441)
Sizemore (.288/.376/.515)
Middlebrooks (.239/.273/.443)
Pierzynski (.290/.331/.442)
Bogaerts (.290/.368/.469 2013 AAA) 
Victorino (.267/.329/.402)
 
Against LHP
 
Victorino (.303/.373/.506)
Pedroia (.316/.400/.467)
Ortiz (.267/.339/.477) and sometimes Carp (.295/.337/.455)
Napoli (.276/.380/.528)
Gomes (.277/.377/.502)
Bogaerts (.309/.423/.475 2013 AAA)
Middlebrooks (.285/.338/.500)
Ross (.246/.325/.442)
Sizemore (.227/.315/.378)
 
Notes: 

• This is a mix of things JF has talked about (e.g. not leading off with Sizemore) and my own thoughts.
• I feel strongly about Pedroia/Ortiz 2/3. 
• I wanted to put Victorino low against righties both because I'm worried his late season success against them as a RHB is not sustainable, but also in an effort to limit the number of times he's hit by pitches. We need him alive.
• Similarly with Sizemore: he's a middle of the order bat against RHP, but notably weaker against LHP. I drop him to a kind of second-leadoff 9-hole, to both limit the workload of a player with durability questions, but also so his speed can be useful in front of Victorino's cagey fake bunts with runners going and doubles power. Bogaerts plays a similar role in the 8-hole against RHP. 
• Carp's career numbers are hard to interpret, but they suggest a very small platoon split (0 points of OBP and 14 points of SLG). I'd like to see him subbed for Napoli against RHP once a week and for Ortiz against LHP once a week. Now that we have Ortiz under contract into his 40s, I'd like to try to limit the wear a bit, and Carp's relative strength against LHP means we wouldn't lose much performance. We want Ortiz in there against *all* RHP without exception, because his near-.600 SLG is so superlative, but he's merely very good against LHP. 
• I'm trying to keep high-OBP guys in front of Middlebrooks where possible, because I think we might see some meaningful power from him this season. 

These are two extremely deep lineups. It really shows what you can do with a lineup if you get meaningful offense from up-the-middle positions. After this exercise, I'm more confident about the offense than ever, especially if Middlebrooks can carry his spring training success into the regular season. 
 
Your thoughts? What have I gotten wrong? What brilliant outside-the-box approach have you been turning over your fertile minds?

 

[bosockboy]

Against RHP I'd swap WMB and Bogaerts but other than that I think it's pretty solid.

 

[Saints Rest]

I agree with your points and they make sense in print.  But I think Farrell is enough old-school to believe in comfort level of the individuals.  Thus I think we will likely see last year's middle of the lineup more often, namely Victorino, Pedey, Ortiz, Nap sitting 2,3,4,5 at least against RHP, with each one moving up a spot vs LHP.

I also think he may start Bogaerts/WMB 7,8 and let them sit there all the time, to limit the amount of distractions.
 
Really the only open slots would appear to be leadoff, where I think we see Nava against RHP's at least early in the season, and the aforementioned moving up by a slot Victorino vs LHPs.  That puts Sizemore batting 6th, with Gomes slotting in a 5th against LHP.

And I think he may simply allocate the 9th spot for the catcher, regardless of Ross or AJP.

 

[nattysez]

Why not Sizemore lead-off vs. righties? He's had over 80% of his career PA's from the lead-off slot. Career .376 OBP vs. righties.

 

“We look at those top spots in the lineup as on bases being the most important,” Boston manager John Farrell said. “We also factor in, if it were to be Grady, there’s a potential of one more at-bat every single night — and how does that cumulative effect affect him given the amount of time off?”

 
“I’m not going to say Grady is never going to lead off,” Farrell said. “But we’re balancing the time missed, the strengths of our roster, and what’s the best alignment.”

 
http://www.providencejournal.com/sports/content/20140327-if-hes-on-the-team-sizemore-wont-hit-leadoff.ece

 

[nvalvo]

I agree with your points and they make sense in print.  But I think Farrell is enough old-school to believe in comfort level of the individuals.  Thus I think we will likely see last year's middle of the lineup more often, namely Victorino, Pedey, Ortiz, Nap sitting 2,3,4,5 at least against RHP, with each one moving up a spot vs LHP.
I also think he may start Bogaerts/WMB 7,8 and let them sit there all the time, to limit the amount of distractions.
 
Really the only open slots would appear to be leadoff, where I think we see Nava against RHP's at least early in the season, and the aforementioned moving up by a slot Victorino vs LHPs.  That puts Sizemore batting 6th, with Gomes slotting in a 5th against LHP.
And I think he may simply allocate the 9th spot for the catcher, regardless of Ross or AJP.

 
If Farrell wants to minimize moving people around, a straight platoon of Nava/Gomes at the leadoff spot wouldn't be a terrible idea. Both players have good OBP from their side of the plate and see a lot of pitches. 

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Against RHP
 
Nava (.292/.390/.443)
Pedroia (.297/.357/.449)
Ortiz (.296/.399/.581)
Napoli (.252/.348/.492) and sometimes Carp (.260/.337/.441)
Sizemore (.288/.376/.515)
Victorino (.267/.329/.402) 
Bogaerts (.290/.368/.469 2013 AAA)
Pierzynski (.290/.331/.442)
Middlebrooks (.239/.273/.443)
 
The hope here is that Middlebrooks forces his way back up the lineup to somewhere around 6th or 5th in the order, but until he does, it's tough for me to justify hitting him in front of anyone else.  I like having the speed of Sizemore and Victorino up after the sluggers but in front of Bogaerts.  If there's anything I expect Bogaerts to do well right out of the gate, it's get on base, but he might also have the pop this year to take advantage of having speedy guys on in front of him, driving in more runs on balls hit to the gap or even bloopers or bleeders on hit and run plays.  Bogaerts might also benefit from having first open with runners on second or third (or both) as pitchers will try to pitch around him without intentionally walking him, allowing him to be patient and look for a mistake pitch.  Plus, Sizemore and Victorino have career OBPs that fit well in that part of the order.  I also like the idea of Carp getting some time in as the clean up hitter to spell both Napoli and Papi.
 
Against LHP
 
Victorino (.303/.373/.506)
Pedroia (.316/.400/.467)
Ortiz (.267/.339/.477) and sometimes Carp (.295/.337/.455)
Napoli (.276/.380/.528)
Gomes (.277/.377/.502)
Bogaerts (.309/.423/.475 2013 AAA)
Middlebrooks (.285/.338/.500)
Ross (.246/.325/.442)
Sizemore (.227/.315/.378)
 
The lineup versus left handed pitchers is a little tougher to nail down, but again I agree with your use of Carp here.  Victorino's OBP makes him a good choice to lead off, and while I almost had Gomes hitting second in this lineup, I ultimately decided that I like Pedroia's speed better here, so rather than bump him, Papi and Napoli down, I left them in the same slots they inhabit in the RHP lineup and followed them with the former beard.  Gomes has enough pop, especially against lefties, to justify as the 5th hitter.  I thought about Bogaerts there, but to start the year I'd prefer to keep him down in the order a little and make him earn a higher slot.  Middlebrooks is better against lefties, so I like him more here than Ross or Sizemore.
 
Much like in 2013, they should have one of the best offenses in the game.  The loss of Ellsbury may not end up stinging so much if Sizemore can give them 120-130 games, even if it's just at 75% of what he used to be.  Hell, at 85% of his old self, he's replacing Ellsbury fully.  The loss of Salty means less home run power, but Pierzynski won't be any worse at getting on base and is a better defensive catcher, so the slight loss at the plate is worth it.
 
This should, once again, be a fun team to watch hit.

 

[benhogan]

I think we may see Sizemore sit 50% of the time vs. LHP, w/ Vic in CF and Nava in RF.
 
I know Nava is terrible vs LHP, but if Farrell plans on sitting Sizemore a few times a week, I hope its against LHP. I want Grady playing as much as possible when we face a RHP.
 
So I'd pencil in Sizemore/Nava at #9 vs. LHP

 

[aron7awol]

Carp's career is far too short to use his career platoon splits as-is to determine his platoon skill.  If you look at his BABIP splits (.380 vs. LHP, .321 vs RHP) you can see why.  In cases like this, we need to look at BB% and ISO splits for both MLB and MiLB.  Those two skills normalize a lot faster than BABIP (and BB% faster than ISO even).  MiLB splits from minorleaguecentral.com...
 
Career MLB BB% vs. LHP: 5.4%
Career MLB BB% vs. RHP: 9.5%
Career MLB ISO vs. LHP: .160
Career MLB ISO vs. RHP: .182
 
Career MiLB BB% vs. LHP: 7.8%
Career MiLB BB% vs. RHP: 9.9%
Career MiLB ISO vs. LHP: .155
Career MiLB ISO vs. RHP: .267
 
So not only does a sample size this small already tell us we need to regress heavily toward the normal platoon split for LHB, but looking more closely at the splits for skills that normalize much more quickly we see he is displaying a significant normal platoon split so far.
 
He doesn't belong in the lineup vs. LHP.
 
Edit: If his defense weren't so poor, he'd make a good platoon partner for Victorino in RF and Napoli at 1B.  Still, he's a great asset to have as a backup LF/1B.

 

[jacklamabe65]

I still have Sizemore in my head, circa, 2006, so of course, I picture him batting first. Where he ends up batting will be one of the more interesting decisions JF makes.

 

[nvalvo]

Carp's career is far too short to use his career platoon splits as-is to determine his platoon skill.  If you look at his BABIP splits (.380 vs. LHP, .321 vs RHP) you can see why.  In cases like this, we need to look at BB% and ISO splits for both MLB and MiLB.  Those two skills normalize a lot faster than BABIP (and BB% faster than ISO even).  MiLB splits from minorleaguecentral.com...
 
Career MLB BB% vs. LHP: 5.4%
Career MLB BB% vs. RHP: 9.5%
Career MLB ISO vs. LHP: .160
Career MLB ISO vs. RHP: .182
 
Career MiLB BB% vs. LHP: 7.8%
Career MiLB BB% vs. RHP: 9.9%
Career MiLB ISO vs. LHP: .155
Career MiLB ISO vs. RHP: .267
 
So not only does a sample size this small already tell us we need to regress heavily toward the normal platoon split for LHB, but looking more closely at the splits for skills that normalize much more quickly we see he is displaying a significant normal platoon split so far.
 
He doesn't belong in the lineup vs. LHP.
 
Edit: If his defense weren't so poor, he'd make a good platoon partner for Victorino in RF and Napoli at 1B.  Still, he's a great asset to have as a backup LF/1B.

 
This is excellent work, thanks. 
 
Edited to add: I figured Carp's mild reverse split was unlikely to be real, and now that you mention it, it is clearly BA-driven. And if your analysis is right, and his skills against LHP aren't very good, then I begin to question whether it was really worth sending down JBJ (and thus potentially exposing us to the terrible Gomes-Vic-Nava outfield benhogan is talking about) just to avoid selling high on Carp. If Carp is just a lefty Gomes, I'm not sure we can afford two players that one-dimensional on the roster — unless Cherington really couldn't get anything of value for Carp, or the player development people think Bradley needs more seasoning, both of which are plausible. 
 
Basically, if Carp is only going to play against RHP, is his projected line (.800 OPS or so) really so much better than Bradley's projected line against RHP (.725 OPS or so) to outweigh the considerable difference in their defense/positional flexibility?

 

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

RedSox.com has a "projected opening day lineup" in the Sizemore story with Middlebrooks hitting 9. I'm not sure whether it's a WaG or Farrell has given them a head's up, but that's about the last place I'd put him. I'd sooner have Xander ther, as I expect him to better OBP.

Will seems like a 6-7 hitter to me.

 

[Al Zarilla]

RedSox.com has a "projected opening day lineup" in the Sizemore story with Middlebrooks hitting 9. I'm not sure whether it's a WaG or Farrell has given them a head's up, but that's about the last place I'd put him. I'd sooner have Xander ther, as I expect him to better OBP.

Will seems like a 6-7 hitter to me.

I'm not seeing it. Could you copy/paste it?

 

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

My fault - it was in the story about Lester being named opening day starter. 
 
For those who don't want to click through, they have:
Projected Opening Day lineup:
1 LF Daniel Nava
2 RF Shane Victorino
3 2B Dustin Pedroia
4 DH David Ortiz
5 1B Mike Napoli
6 CF Grady Sizemore
7 SS Xander Bogaerts
8 C A.J. Pierzynski
9 3B Will Middlebrooks
 
Projected rotation:
1 LHP Jon Lester
2 RHP John Lackey
3 LHP Felix Doubront
4 RHP Jake Peavy
5 RHP Clay Buchholz

 

[Al Zarilla]

Thanks MDLTG. The pitching staff is gold and I think the keys to the offense are if X can hit this year like he will down the road and if Papi is still Papi. Secondarily, please Sizemore stay healthy and WMB lay off that outside and low shit. 

 

[nvalvo]

Thanks MDLTG. The pitching staff is gold and I think the keys to the offense are if X can hit this year like he will down the road and if Papi is still Papi. Secondarily, please Sizemore stay healthy and WMB lay off that outside and low shit.

 
He's been looking gooooood at the plate, which he attributes to the improved pitch recognition from the new contact lenses.