Likelihood of an NFL 2020 Season

lexrageorge

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I first brought up the flu only to speak of the possibility of the coronavirus mutating, and I wondered if herd immunity would take care of it if new strains could pop up like what happens with the flu from time to time. Then cornwalls@6 said, "The flu shot is far from bullet proof, as you point out. But despite still high infection rates, and not insignificant mortality numbers in some years, we don't shut down public life and the economy out of a fear of getting the flu." And I was just responding to that last point about how we don't shut public life down, even in bad flu seasons which infect 40+ million people, hospitalize 600,000+ people, and kill 50,000+ people. Those numbers are pretty bad and we really don't do anything different. Which is true.

I don't see how me saying that means you guys are coming away thinking that I think that covid-19 is basically the flu. I never said it was or even hinted at it. I'm just making one simple point. I notice that nobody is pushing back on cornwalls@6 for saying what he said as I quoted above. (nor should you)

So again, I don't understand what you guys think I'm thinking that needs to change.
This post seems on point. One of the many long term outcomes the paid experts predict is possible is that CoVid-19 becomes essentially another endemic flu, something we deal with every year or every few years. There is a long way between here and there; the mortality rate has to get much lower than the current WHO estimate of >3%; the hospitalization rate needs to be much lower; and there needs to be at least a partially effective vaccine and/or treatment. Whether this is feasible or not remains to be seen, but this outcome should not be unexpected. I personally hope for a better outcome, but time will tell. There are also outcomes that are far more pear-shaped that I'd rather not delve into right now.

In any event, if such an outcome were to come to pass, yes, there would indeed be a resumption of professional sports.
 

RIFan

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, even in bad flu seasons which infect 40+ million people, hospitalize 600,000+ people, and kill 50,000+ people.
Seriously, show your data on 50,000+ people killed by the flu. The commonly quoted numbers of an average of 36000 deaths due to "flu" are actually a combination of flu and pneumonia deaths. Per the CDC the reported flu deaths in 2017 was 6,515.
 

BaseballJones

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Seriously, show your data on 50,000+ people killed by the flu. The commonly quoted numbers of an average of 36000 deaths due to "flu" are actually a combination of flu and pneumonia deaths. Per the CDC the reported flu deaths in 2017 was 6,515.
From Apr 19, 2019, speaking of the 2018-19 flu season...


"Levels of influenza-like illness (ILI) in the United States remain elevated for the 21st consecutive week—the longest season in recent years—but the disease is on the decline, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said today in its weekly update.

Still, the agency says influenza has caused up to 57,300 deaths and sickened up to 41.3 million people, according to new estimates....

In its latest estimates on flu impact today, the CDC said the disease has sickened from 36 million to 41.3 million people this season through Apr 13, of whom 16.7 million to 19.4 million sought medical care. In addition, the disease has hospitalized 502,000 to 610,000 patients and killed 34,400 to 57,300."
 

snowmanny

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Look I agree that risk gets baked into our psyche at a certain point. After 6 months or so after 9/11 air travel was somewhat normal. But it is very hard to predict how that will evolve with COVID because nothing we have seen (including flu) is quite like this and we have just guesses as to what everything will feel like in four months.
 

RIFan

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From Apr 19, 2019, speaking of the 2018-19 flu season...


"Levels of influenza-like illness (ILI) in the United States remain elevated for the 21st consecutive week—the longest season in recent years—but the disease is on the decline, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said today in its weekly update.

Still, the agency says influenza has caused up to 57,300 deaths and sickened up to 41.3 million people, according to new estimates....

In its latest estimates on flu impact today, the CDC said the disease has sickened from 36 million to 41.3 million people this season through Apr 13, of whom 16.7 million to 19.4 million sought medical care. In addition, the disease has hospitalized 502,000 to 610,000 patients and killed 34,400 to 57,300."
The underlying data combines pneumonia and influenza. It's a problematic combination since it implies that pneumonia related deaths started as the flu. (That is aside from that the CDC reported numbers are only estimates. ) One theory as to why they do that is to drive higher vaccination rates by positioning the flu as a higher mortality rate than it actually is. Smallest of small sample sizes, but I've had pneumonia twice and did not test positive for influenza either time. It will be interesting on how this years numbers are ultimately categorized since pneumonia is a possible outcome of both influenze and covid-19.
 

j-man

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Look I agree that risk gets baked into our psyche at a certain point. After 6 months or so after 9/11 air travel was somewhat normal. But it is very hard to predict how that will evolve with COVID because nothing we have seen (including flu) is quite like this and we have just guesses as to what everything will feel like in four months.
i travel to denver a 3/haif weeks after 9/11 there was a better awareness to everything i rem a fbi agaent met our family at the denver airpont to make sure i got in the city ok she was a woman very smart and pretty early 30's then i was a littie nveous because my chair kept stopping because of the etheric change all anound the airport

their airport is about 40 miles outside of denver and i almost got lost and did not make my own dinner because the team hotel was 45 min away and they did not give us any idea how to get there

and then 12 femele cheerleaders' from a local high school was around my lap and took pictures with me

the point of the dinner was telling me i was meeting shanny that night like right after they was done

and so i did all i remember from that was my 84 jersey with my name on it told him to bring shape back if possable and i said double tony g and u should win here is the game i was at

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eh07ceX_bo0
 

Ale Xander

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At least it doesn't mean much for a possible NHL playoffs given the Sharks' place in the standings.
 

soxin6

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Finally, someone in the know speaking reality.
How do you know that they actually know anything? Everything that we are being told is based on incomplete models and hypotheses formulated using limited data. There are exactly zero people that actually know anything, what they are doing is guessing based on information available in early April. If the requirement for the return of spots is a vaccine, then we will be waiting a very long time.
 

Matty005

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How do you know that they actually know anything? Everything that we are being told is based on incomplete models and hypotheses formulated using limited data. There are exactly zero people that actually know anything, what they are doing is guessing based on information available in early April. If the requirement for the return of spots is a vaccine, then we will be waiting a very long time.
I'm mentally preparing myself for that because I think it might be the case.
 

lexrageorge

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View: https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/1248065511931461632


Santa Clara County executive officer Dr. Jeffrey Smith told that county’s Board of Supervisors this week that he did not expect there would be “any sports games until at least Thanksgiving, and we’d be lucky to have them by Thanksgiving”, via the
@latimes
How do you know that they actually know anything? Everything that we are being told is based on incomplete models and hypotheses formulated using limited data. There are exactly zero people that actually know anything, what they are doing is guessing based on information available in early April. If the requirement for the return of spots is a vaccine, then we will be waiting a very long time.
The article has a number of flaws. First, CA did not have the capability to do aggressive testing and contact tracing in February before the outbreak spiraled out of control. Noone had any testing capability thanks to the inexcusable screw up by the CDC when it came to releasing test kits.

Second, the Harvard model is simply not implementable. The shelter in place that is in effect now is not sustainable much past June or July, no matter how much the Harvard people want it to be otherwise.

Having said that, organized sports are going to down the list when it comes to returning to some level of normalcy. While noone knows what circumstances are going to look like in the fall, it seems prudent to set expectations that it could be a while before we have 60,000 people piling into a stadium.
 

DourDoerr

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I'm in CA and we seem to be doing a good job of keeping things locked down given the state's population, but I'm guessing we're a long ways out - and the goalposts will keep moving forward - because we're at the mercy of those states that are rolling business as usual. Kansas is opening for Easter and that just seems ripe for an outbreak. So unless you can restrict interstate travel, you can't keep CV at bay. Flying players and personnel back and forth puts everyone at risk - unless players are willing to self-quarantine 14 days between games which just doesn't sound practical.

That kind of movement without a vaccine would only be possible if officials felt confident that enough flattening has occurred and there are enough ICU beds, materials and doctors to handle new outbreaks. Perhaps, but do NFL owners then want possible liability if they reintroduce a virus that kills someone or, worse, many? Look at PG&E's liability after the CA fires - it's costing billions. At decision time, I hope cooler heads would prevail.
 

Captaincoop

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Even if they have to take all the players to the moon for six months, they better have an NFL season. It's been one month and I'm going crazy without sports. Cannot imagine going a year.
 

bakahump

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Nahh too many on the injured reserve/NFI list.

But if your nights were long enough, and you kept enough of the resulting offspring alive a Basketball team seems reasonable.
 

Marciano490

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If they don’t have a season, I wonder how they’ll handle rosters. Like, will teams have to make cuts or be able to carry over all their draft picks and udfa till the next preseason, which I guess would also include the 2021 draftees and signings.
 

genoasalami

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I think the question boils down to, will they have a season with no fans in stadiums? 65000 people in a stadium in September isn't happening.
 

axx

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I think the question boils down to, will they have a season with no fans in stadiums?
It's much more realistic than the other leagues since the % of revenue that comes from the gate is much lower.

Edit: Remember that September is 5 months from now. That's a long time. But yes If the NFL insists that there are no shutdowns anywhere before restarting, then getting the season in would be tough.
 
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Salem's Lot

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How the hell did people in the 1800's live without sports and tv and the internet?
They guys hung out at whatever “social club” that they had in their town like the volunteer fire department, or the Knights of Columbus, and drank and gambled away their paychecks playing cards until they went home shit faced and smacked the wife and kids around. Seriously, watch Ken Burns’ documentary on Prohibition.
 

Cotillion

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Jun 11, 2019
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If you have any doubts that a full NFL season will most definitely not be happening, just take a look at what is happening in Singapore.

They originally were seen as having done a good job handling it well and keeping their number lows during the initial outbreak, but now it’s all spiking back up on them.

Till you have a vaccine that generates herd immunity this is the new normal. Chances for periods of normalcy but snapping right back to shelter in place as outbreaks occur.
 

InstaFace

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this has gotta end up a PredictIt market soon enough. Give the people some way to bet on football, even if it's just betting on whether football will happen.
 

djbayko

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If you have any doubts that a full NFL season will most definitely not be happening, just take a look at what is happening in Singapore.

They originally were seen as having done a good job handling it well and keeping their number lows during the initial outbreak, but now it’s all spiking back up on them.

Till you have a vaccine that generates herd immunity this is the new normal. Chances for periods of normalcy but snapping right back to shelter in place as outbreaks occur.
Given that the White House reopen America plan was released today without a shred of testing in it, the odds of a full NFL season - or any season - just dropped dramatically.
 

djbayko

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this has gotta end up a PredictIt market soon enough. Give the people some way to bet on football, even if it's just betting on whether football will happen.
My guess is you'll never see anything even adjacent to sports at PI, as they don't want to put their special status via CFTC no-action letter at risk.

With that being said, most sportsbooks carried this line at one time and a handful still do. You can also bet on sports a few other ways - NFL free agency and starting QBs, for example - but yeah, the cupboards are bare.
 

BaseballJones

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If you have any doubts that a full NFL season will most definitely not be happening, just take a look at what is happening in Singapore.

They originally were seen as having done a good job handling it well and keeping their number lows during the initial outbreak, but now it’s all spiking back up on them.

Till you have a vaccine that generates herd immunity this is the new normal. Chances for periods of normalcy but snapping right back to shelter in place as outbreaks occur.

Look at the graphs. They're the same as everywhere else. Just a much longer fuse before the bomb has started to go off.

As for the bigger question...if a vaccine is 12-18 months away - if we EVER get one...there are viruses for which we still don't have a vaccine even after decades of research - what do we do? We cannot keep THIS up that long.
 

djbayko

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Look at the graphs. They're the same as everywhere else. Just a much longer fuse before the bomb has started to go off.

As for the bigger question...if a vaccine is 12-18 months away - if we EVER get one...there are viruses for which we still don't have a vaccine even after decades of research - what do we do? We cannot keep THIS up that long.
Some combination of:
  1. Workable treatment plan (right now there is so much manpower on this problem that we'll come up with some therapeutic eventually, if not a vaccine)
  2. Herd immunity being reached eventually (and spread of the virus will necessarily slow down as we get closer to that point as there will be fewer people to infect)
  3. Learning to live with it
But Fauci and other scientists seem optimistic about a vaccine, so I am too. We successfully developed a vaccine for SARS - another deadly coronavirus which nearly reached pandemic status - but the virus petered out before we had to deploy it. Since this pandemic is having such a disastrous effect on the health of our global economy, an enormous amount of resources are dedicated to finding a solution, much more than we've seen with any other disease for quite some time.
 

lexrageorge

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Look at the graphs. They're the same as everywhere else. Just a much longer fuse before the bomb has started to go off.

As for the bigger question...if a vaccine is 12-18 months away - if we EVER get one...there are viruses for which we still don't have a vaccine even after decades of research - what do we do? We cannot keep THIS up that long.
Nearly every specialist thinks a vaccine is almost a certainty for 2021.
 

PC Drunken Friar

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An article analyzing auguries for football from a canceled T-Swift SoFi Stadium summer stint.
She also cancelled the East Coast version of this event which was going to be at Gillette on August 1.

If we get a full season with the season starting on time, it means we kicked this thing for good and forever. That ain't happening.