Likelihood of an NFL 2020 Season

axx

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
6,679
Too early to do some "Coronavirus Parties"?

I think they need to find out why so many test positive yet have no or little symptoms.
 

jk333

Member
SoSH Member
Feb 26, 2009
2,335
Boston
It’s impossible to imagine professional sports today in many ways but Abbott has a 5 minute test (Read, 45 minutes at scale) and there will be other tests by fall. It would seem that you could test teams an hour before games and isolate players that are positive. The outbreak is also supposed to be on a lower level by then as well.

Fans are clearly out until there is a vaccine or herd immunity. Finally, by June there should be antibody tests which could answer some of the herd immunity questions.

I don’t think football in September is a lock but I think there is a strong chance. It’s just hard to analyze it now and it’s going to be even harder to believe over the next few weeks but as we get into mid May we will know more.
 

Harry Hooper

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jan 4, 2002
26,928
There's a lot going on in R&D, though per the WSJ item on Thursday:

Health experts say they now believe nearly one in three patients who are infected are nevertheless getting a negative test result.
 

axx

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
6,679
Be kind of scary if there are multiple strains just from a economic standpoint that goes far beyond Football.
 

BaseballJones

goalpost mover
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
8,583
If this comes back (and they think it will), then until there’s a vaccine or treatment and we begin as a society to just live with it, I don’t see how we can go back to pro or college sports. Because if we don’t have this figured out, then if ONE athlete gets it, if they don’t shut things down then a crap ton of other people are gonna get it.
 

jk333

Member
SoSH Member
Feb 26, 2009
2,335
Boston
There's a lot going on in R&D, though per the WSJ item on Thursday:
I can’t read the article but it was always reported as about 80% accurate early on and approaching 95% as the infection progressed. Most of the ID people were pretty okay with the test numbers.

NH has had many false negatives. The collection method is known to give negative results if the person doesn’t use the proper technique.

3 different ID people have referenced this in separate talks. It’s a known limitation of the collection method
 

riboflav

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 20, 2006
7,737
NOVA
If this comes back (and they think it will), then until there’s a vaccine or treatment and we begin as a society to just live with it, I don’t see how we can go back to pro or college sports. Because if we don’t have this figured out, then if ONE athlete gets it, if they don’t shut things down then a crap ton of other people are gonna get it.
Like I get that some and perhaps many businesses have to come back in some capacity in the next few months or we risk unthinkable things. Pro sports do not and do not have to come back until there's a vaccine. China is five months in and took greater steps than we are and still doesn't have pro sports back. I understand this is a sports message board so our perspective is skewed toward thinking the NFL is almost necessary to the point where its return may even guarantee that over 1500 more Americans get Covid and some posters shrug it off by saying we'll all be numb to it in just 3-4 months. To others I know who aren't sports fans such ideas are Trumpian.
 
Last edited:

lexrageorge

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2007
9,982
Playing with fans will require one of the following to happen first:

a.) Vaccine.
b.) Highly effective treatment that basically turns CoVid-19 into average flu.
c.) Herd immunity.

Of all the major sports, the NFL requires the most support personnel, and so even to play without fans, we'll need to have a degree of control of the virus that we do not have today. And our first priority will be to reopen regular businesses, which will be difficult enough between real and imagined fears of the virus.
 

RIFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
2,146
Blackstone MA
I think there is a 50/50 chance the season starts by October (because $$$$).. The story beyond the late start will be a number of high profile players that decline to play or retire. I think there is close to a zero percent chance they finish the season. You already have cases of the flu that run rampart through locker rooms every season. You will no doubt have teams that have several players come down with it once the infections ramp up again in the fall as expected. You run the risk of a team not being able to put a full team on the field due to positive tests or quarantines. You will probably also have teams refuse to play if they know the other team has multiple infections.

You would think that these guys would all do what is necessary to stay healthy, since being healthy is their livelihood. They are after all young and feel invincible so this happens..
View: https://twitter.com/fox4/status/1246173124065820672?s=21
 

singaporesoxfan

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 21, 2004
8,490
Washington, DC
Like I get that some and perhaps many businesses have to come back in some capacity in the next few months or we risk unthinkable things. Pro sports do not and do not have to come back until there's a vaccine. China is five months in and took greater steps than we are and still doesn't have pro sports back. I understand this is a sports message board so our perspective is skewed toward thinking the NFL is almost necessary to the point where its return may even guarantee that over 1500 more Americans get Covid and some posters shrug it off by saying we'll all be numb to it in just 3-4 months. To others I know who aren't sports fans such ideas are Trumpian.
Also there are 31 Mayors and however many governors, some of whom may be receiving public health advice and/or feeling political pressure to keep things shut down. Let’s say the Florida teams say they want to play and the authorities are fine with it there but Gavin Newsom in CA or Jay Inslee in WA insist that there will be no games played in their states and issue orders to that effect. What then?
 

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

has big, douchey shoulders
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Also there are 31 Mayors and however many governors, some of whom may be receiving public health advice and/or feeling political pressure to keep things shut down. Let’s say the Florida teams say they want to play and the authorities are fine with it there but Gavin Newsom in CA or Jay Inslee in WA insist that there will be no games played in their states and issue orders to that effect. What then?
Then they'll play somewhere else, either on the road or at a neutral site.
 

Ale Xander

Lacks black ink
SoSH Member
Oct 31, 2013
27,859
Also there are 31 Mayors and however many governors, some of whom may be receiving public health advice and/or feeling political pressure to keep things shut down. Let’s say the Florida teams say they want to play and the authorities are fine with it there but Gavin Newsom in CA or Jay Inslee in WA insist that there will be no games played in their states and issue orders to that effect. What then?
Ok, let's break it down by team

Probable vote to not play:

Teams in blue states:
CA-3
NJ-2
NY-1
MA-1
MD-1
DC-1
MN-1
IL-1
WA-1
CO-1

Total: 13

Teams in purple states that don't care about football
AZ-1

Teams in red states with an epicenter and Katrina history, and a critical mayor
LA-1

total: 15

---------------------

Teams in red states where football is a religion, will vote to play:
TX-2

Teams in purple states that acted late
TN-1

Teams in purple states that need the tourism dollars
NV-1
---------------------
total: 4

Unsure what owners will vote:

Leaning yes
Teams in purple states but governor is red/dumb
FL-3
GA-1

total:4

Leaning no
Teams in blue leaning upper midwest purple states where football is very important, but health of residents also important
OH-2
PA-2
MI-1
WI-1

total: 6


Teams in other red states:
IN-1
MO-1


Teams in purple states that I have no clue
NC-1

total 3

--------------

So 15 no's, 4 yes's,
6 probably no, 4 probably yes
3 no idea


No NFL should win IMHO (based on Governors), but can't be sure.
 
Last edited:

Marciano490

Urological Expert
SoSH Member
Nov 4, 2007
45,362
New Orleans is in the middle of a major crisis and its mayor has been openly critical of the federal government. I’d put them in the other category.
 

singaporesoxfan

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 21, 2004
8,490
Washington, DC
Then they'll play somewhere else, either on the road or at a neutral site.
That’s a lot of neutral site games to be arranged, given that half of NFL teams are likely located in places with current stay at home notices. And given that the stay at home orders are likely to extend to practice facilities then what? They find a site that’s out of state in a place that isn’t under stay at home orders, and stay on the road the entire season?

More importantly NFL teams want to have good relations with mayors and governors (and also maintain a good image with the public) if only so they can get the sweet taxpayer-subsidized stadia. If teams run off and spend their entire season elsewhere during a crisis that might be trading short term gains for long term reputational damage
 
Apr 24, 2019
453
That’s not even including a chunk of players who won’t feel comfortable playing (or whose families won’t feel comfortable with their playing). At the very low end, that would be...what 10%? So, five or so players on every team.

edit typos
 
Last edited:

nolasoxfan

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 11, 2004
4,005
Displaced
I think there is a 50/50 chance the season starts by October (because $$$$).. The story beyond the late start will be a number of high profile players that decline to play or retire. I think there is close to a zero percent chance they finish the season. You already have cases of the flu that run rampart through locker rooms every season. You will no doubt have teams that have several players come down with it once the infections ramp up again in the fall as expected. You run the risk of a team not being able to put a full team on the field due to positive tests or quarantines. You will probably also have teams refuse to play if they know the other team has multiple infections.

You would think that these guys would all do what is necessary to stay healthy, since being healthy is their livelihood. They are after all young and feel invincible so this happens..
View: https://twitter.com/fox4/status/1246173124065820672?s=21
Nice messaging, Fox. SOME are concerned. Scumbag company.
 

Oppo

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 5, 2009
1,422
Orlando
Ok, let's break it down by team

Probable vote to not play:

Teams in blue states:
CA-3
NJ-2
NY-1
MA-1
MD-1
DC-1
MN-1
IL-1
WA-1
CO-1

Total: 13

Teams in purple states that don't care about football
AZ-1

Teams in red states with an epicenter and Katrina history, and a critical mayor
LA-1

total: 15

---------------------

Teams in red states where football is a religion, will vote to play:
TX-2

Teams in purple states that acted late
TN-1

Teams in purple states that need the tourism dollars
NV-1
---------------------
total: 4

Unsure what owners will vote:

Leaning yes
Teams in purple states but governor is red/dumb
FL-3
GA-1

total:4

Leaning no
Teams in blue leaning upper midwest purple states where football is very important, but health of residents also important
OH-2
PA-2
MI-1
WI-1

total: 6


Teams in other red states:
IN-1
MO-1


Teams in purple states that I have no clue
NC-1

total 3

--------------

So 15 no's, 4 yes's,
6 probably no, 4 probably yes
3 no idea


No NFL should win IMHO (based on Governors), but can't be sure.
Tell us more about your political leanings, please
 

axx

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
6,679
Even in a scenario where some Blue States refuse to reopen just to spite Trump, you would think that would end after the election regardless of what happens there.

I don't see why the NFL couldn't say start in December and have a full season and playoffs.
 

mauf

Anderson Cooper × Mr. Rogers
Staff member
Dope
That’s a lot of neutral site games to be arranged, given that half of NFL teams are likely located in places with current stay at home notices. And given that the stay at home orders are likely to extend to practice facilities then what? They find a site that’s out of state in a place that isn’t under stay at home orders, and stay on the road the entire season?

More importantly NFL teams want to have good relations with mayors and governors (and also maintain a good image with the public) if only so they can get the sweet taxpayer-subsidized stadia. If teams run off and spend their entire season elsewhere during a crisis that might be trading short term gains for long term reputational damage
I don’t think anyone believes the NFL will play if the COVID-19 situation is the same in August or September as it is now. Any discussion of a 2020 NFL season, even with extraordinary arrangements and precautions, presupposes a partial return to normalcy in the next 4-5 months.
 

CoffeeNerdness

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 6, 2012
4,380
I don't see why the NFL couldn't say start in December and have a full season and playoffs.
The main reason is player health and safety. If your season ends in June and 2021 training camps start on time in July '21 then you're giving playoff teams no time to recover from the previous season of playing the most brutal sport on the planet.
 

Harry Hooper

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jan 4, 2002
26,928
You could play a 6-game regular season for teams to jell and set up playoff seeding. Three in-division games (1 vs. each team in your division) and three in-conference games (1 game vs. a team from each other division in the conference). Tiebreakers {including coin flips} used as needed to crown division winners and seeding 1-16. Every team is then seeded into the single-elimination playoff tournament for the team's conference {no byes}. Four weeks of playoff games, and then the Super Bowl with the two conference tournament champions. If necessary, Pro Bowl is eliminated and the Super Bowl held week after Conference Championships. A bit of theft from NCAA March Madness with 16 games the first weekend of the playoffs, with a huge spike in Red Zone subscriptions.
 
Last edited:

Marciano490

Urological Expert
SoSH Member
Nov 4, 2007
45,362
6 games seems crazy short. Mahomes or Jackson gets injured or mono and misses 2-3 games, the division looks completely different.
 

Marciano490

Urological Expert
SoSH Member
Nov 4, 2007
45,362
Imagine how mad Steelers fans would be if we won the go ahead Super Bowl in a truncated season.
 

axx

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
6,679
The main reason is player health and safety. If your season ends in June and 2021 training camps start on time in July '21 then you're giving playoff teams no time to recover from the previous season of playing the most brutal sport on the planet.
Good point.. you would need to cut down Training Camp and push back the start of the following season.
 

cornwalls@6

Less observant than others
SoSH Member
Apr 23, 2010
1,646
from the wilds of western ma
I don’t think anyone believes the NFL will play if the COVID-19 situation is the same in August or September as it is now. Any discussion of a 2020 NFL season, even with extraordinary arrangements and precautions, presupposes a partial return to normalcy in the next 4-5 months.
Agree with this. And of all the drivers of a return to some kind of normalcy, herd immunity seems like the only one that is really possible by late summer. Vaccine still seems 12-18 months away, and treatments are reactive, and I think will take much longer to have an effect on public confidence. I really think it's vaccine, and anti-body testing, that will allow a substantial number of the public to consider going to public events again.
 

BaseballJones

goalpost mover
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
8,583
Agree with this. And of all the drivers of a return to some kind of normalcy, herd immunity seems like the only one that is really possible by late summer. Vaccine still seems 12-18 months away, and treatments are reactive, and I think will take much longer to have an effect on public confidence. I really think it's vaccine, and anti-body testing, that will allow a substantial number of the public to consider going to public events again.
Herd immunity is great when we get there. Until a new strain shows up and we're not immune to that. Isn't that one reason why flu shots don't always work?
 

E5 Yaz

Transcends message boarding
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 25, 2002
64,123
Oregon
That’s not even including a chunk of players who won’t feel comfortable playing (or whose families won’t feel comfortable with their playing). At the very low end, that would be...what 10%? So, five or so players on every team.
I don't understand why this isn't getting through to more people. NFL owners, Goodell or Trump can't just order people into a situation that could be health-threatening ... and expect no repercussions.
 

E5 Yaz

Transcends message boarding
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 25, 2002
64,123
Oregon
Even in a scenario where some Blue States refuse to reopen just to spite Trump, you would think that would end after the election regardless of what happens there.

I don't see why the NFL couldn't say start in December and have a full season and playoffs.
And start the following season in December as well?
 

cornwalls@6

Less observant than others
SoSH Member
Apr 23, 2010
1,646
from the wilds of western ma
Herd immunity is great when we get there. Until a new strain shows up and we're not immune to that. Isn't that one reason why flu shots don't always work?
Yes, I agree. And should have qualified that I think herd immunity is the shakiest proposition to base a return to normalcy on. In terms of public confidence level, which at some point will become more critical to a return than the actual infection risk, it seems increasingly likely to me that only a vaccine will accomplish that. The flu shot is far from bullet proof, as you point out. But despite still high infection rates, and not insignificant mortality numbers in some years, we don't shut down public life and the economy out of a fear of getting the flu.
 

BaseballJones

goalpost mover
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
8,583
Yes, I agree. And should have qualified that I think herd immunity is the shakiest proposition to base a return to normalcy on. In terms of public confidence level, which at some point will become more critical to a return than the actual infection risk, it seems increasingly likely to me that only a vaccine will accomplish that. The flu shot is far from bullet proof, as you point out. But despite still high infection rates, and not insignificant mortality numbers in some years, we don't shut down public life and the economy out of a fear of getting the flu.
Right. In 2018-19, there were 43.1 million people infected with the flu, hundreds of thousands hospitalized, and like 57,300 people killed by the flu. But other than offering vaccines (which only some people get, which we don't have enough for the entire population anyway, and which may in fact miss that year's strain), we literally don't do *anything* else to combat the flu. We just accept that it's "flu season" (like it's "baseball season") and get on with our lives. If a co-worker has covid-19 everyone now is like oh crap. But if a co-worker gets the flu, we all say, oh poor Bob, I hope he's back at work in a few days, and we all shrug and get back to work.
 

axx

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
6,679
I don't understand why this isn't getting through to more people. NFL owners, Goodell or Trump can't just order people into a situation that could be health-threatening ... and expect no repercussions.
The PA will play ball.. no season means no money for the players this year and a hilariously low cap in the following year. The risk will have to be managed for sure. Special exemption/extra roster spot given for players who test positive, etc.

Come to think of it, letting Brady walk looks like a very smart move.
 
I think there's a very real chance that public attitudes to the pandemic will look very different in a month or two, or three. The longer things remain abnormal, the more people will desire a return to normal, and sports - even in empty stadiums - can help people imagine a return to normalcy. Also, the more we know about the virus, the more some people will be willing to take certain chances with it...and maybe professional football players, who play their sport with their eyes widest open about its potential implications to their long-term health, will be the most willing to take those chances. But all of this is dependent upon societal attitudes and perceptions evolving, and even if they do evolve in a way that encourages the NFL to go ahead...
I don't understand why this isn't getting through to more people. NFL owners, Goodell or Trump can't just order people into a situation that could be health-threatening ... and expect no repercussions.
...just to be consistent with what I've said before, if the NFLPA is worth its salt at all, I think the owners will ultimately have to give the players something to make this work. Just spitballing here, but perhaps:

a) a symbolic up-scaling of all salaries by a small percentage during the 2020 season only (prorated to however many games below 16 are actually played in the regular season);
b) guaranteeing a massive pension to the family of any player who dies of non-football related causes which can be in any way traced to COVID-19 - e.g., 20x the player's average yearly salary over his career, paid out over a period of 10 years - and something similar for any player whose career is shortened directly because of the virus; and
c) any player who wishes to take a leave of absence for the 2020 season could do so and effectively be furloughed for one year, earning no money this year but with his contract and service time to resume exactly as they are at present at the start of the 2021 season. (Salary cap space for any player taking a leave of absence would either be freed up or rolled over to the following season, or perhaps a combination of the two at a GM's discretion.)

In return, the players would accept that the games must go on, and that the league would not be otherwise liable for any pandemic-related deaths or career-shortening illnesses.

If the data we have about the virus is better in a few months' time, could something along the above lines function as the framework for a deal? Suppose the medical community feels by June that the expectation is that 70% of players will either not catch the virus or will catch it and be asymptomatic, 25% will have flu-like symptoms which will abate within 7-14 days (and quite possibly much sooner), and only 5% might require additional medical attention - with less than 1% requiring hospitalization. Would enough players be willing to take that sort of risk to make the season viable? I think maybe they might. You'd still need to get coaches and referees and support staff and broadcast personnel, etc., to sign up for this of course, and it's entirely possible that some teams will be shockingly bad in 2020 because of leaves of absence and/or medical issues - particularly where quarterbacks become unavailable. (Also, some mechanism might be required to allow specific games to be cancelled - with no result recorded - or forfeited, and not simply postponed, if enough players on a given team have tested positive and are medically unable to play in a given week because of virus-related symptoms, etc.) But that would also mean other unexpected teams could be relatively good; you'd just have to let the season play out and accept that the results could likely be weird.

Incidentally, scheduling this sort of league season could be rather interesting. Particularly if college football doesn't take place in 2020 - and I'd have to think that's a much more remote prospect than the NFL starting up on time - the league could improvise and schedule games every Saturday, in addition to the usual Thursday-Sunday-Monday rhythm of the season. But on the other hand, if the league feels there's a realistic chance that some games might be cancelled/forfeited because of player unavailability, it might need to look into scheduling multiple games for each prime time slot, games that would air simultaneously if they both go ahead. (Better that than the alternative of having no football in a particular window.)
 

nolasoxfan

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 11, 2004
4,005
Displaced
Right. In 2018-19, there were 43.1 million people infected with the flu, hundreds of thousands hospitalized, and like 57,300 people killed by the flu. But other than offering vaccines (which only some people get, which we don't have enough for the entire population anyway, and which may in fact miss that year's strain), we literally don't do *anything* else to combat the flu. We just accept that it's "flu season" (like it's "baseball season") and get on with our lives. If a co-worker has covid-19 everyone now is like oh crap. But if a co-worker gets the flu, we all say, oh poor Bob, I hope he's back at work in a few days, and we all shrug and get back to work.
You understand this isn’t the flu, right?
 

j-man

Member
Dec 19, 2012
1,724
Arkansas
if i get this i am likely in trouble i have a weaker immune system than most arkansas gov is being stubborn and everything is open for now the jonesboro mayor is thinking of stutting down our town but dont want to cross the gov

due to my health i have had to do some form of this for about 24 years i have chronic fatigue and ra arthritis as well chronic fatigue is like getting in the ring with prime mike tyson every day my cereal palsy is mild about 30% compared to 100% which u are a veggie and cant do anything but gurgle i know because when i was a kid i saw that and was in classes with people like that all day when i was like 7

only cool thing was we watched movies and eat food most of the day and teachers wouild stop in for a break from their class 1 thing my dad told me later was the supertiend at my school thought i would not finish school but i did sorry for going off topic
 

CR67dream

Dope
Dope
SoSH Member
Oct 4, 2001
5,183
I'm going home
if i get this i am likely in trouble i have a weaker immune system than most arkansas gov is being stubborn and everything is open for now the jonesboro mayor is thinking of stutting down our town but dont want to cross the gov

due to my health i have had to do some form of this for about 24 years i have chronic fatigue and ra arthritis as well chronic fatigue is like getting in the ring with prime mike tyson every day my cereal palsy is mild about 30% compared to 100% which u are a veggie and cant do anything but gurgle i know because when i was a kid i saw that and was in classes with people like that all day when i was like 7

only cool thing was we watched movies and eat food most of the day and teachers wouild stop in for a break from their class 1 thing my dad told me later was the supertiend at my school thought i would not finish school but i did sorry for going off topic
No apology necessary, J-Man. Stay safe!
 

jk333

Member
SoSH Member
Feb 26, 2009
2,335
Boston
Herd immunity is great when we get there. Until a new strain shows up and we're not immune to that. Isn't that one reason why flu shots don't always work?
Flu is special and readily mutates. Covid (like SARS) shouldn’t and herd immunity will eventually work:

But, it is not “just like the flu”. We have no immunity which makes it more contagious and we are hoping it’s only 2x more fatal than flu, thinking it’s 3-4x more fatal and it could be 10x more fatal in outbreak scenarios.

All this said, we could maybe resume sports with testing and some luck in a few months. Here is the same person on the plan to end the quarantines over the next 6-8 weeks.

 

genoasalami

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 4, 2006
1,980
It’ll be safe for 70000 people to jam into a stadium in September? Maybe everyone will need proof of being tested before getting in?
 

djbayko

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
12,206
Waltham, MA
6 games seems crazy short. Mahomes or Jackson gets injured or mono and misses 2-3 games, the division looks completely different.
Star players missing time is probably going to be normal for any sports played in the near term due to CV. Teams will just have to deal with it.
 

jk333

Member
SoSH Member
Feb 26, 2009
2,335
Boston
It’ll be safe for 70000 people to jam into a stadium in September? Maybe everyone will need proof of being tested before getting in?
It sounds like we agree that fans are out until there is a vaccine or herd immunity? The CDC antibody tests will be interesting over the next 1-2 months.
 

snowmanny

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 8, 2005
11,120
What do you think my thought process is that needs to be changed?
You made a comparison to flu. That a lot of people die from flu season and we get on with our lives. But flu never overwhelms the healthcare system. COVID is ultimately is going to kill a lot more people than the worst year of flu. Flu is something where people are much more obviously symptomatic and probably less contagious and more briefly contagious. Flu season basically ends.
The risk of me going out somewhere right now and catching something randomly from someone that will kill me or ultimately be passed on to a member of my family or a co-worker or a co/workers family and kill one of them (or disable one of them for weeks) is much higher for COVID than it is for flu. Basically, the chances of me going to a restaurant or a ballgame before I get immunity or something else changes is zero.
 

cornwalls@6

Less observant than others
SoSH Member
Apr 23, 2010
1,646
from the wilds of western ma
You understand this isn’t the flu, right?
The point of our exchange was never that COVID 19 is like the flu. It was a discussion of what likely needs to happen for people to feel comfortable enough to get back out and attend large public events, like an NFL game. I think it will be a vaccine. It was about public perception and confidence, even if that confidence may be somewhat false. Fully aware that the 2 viruses are not the same thing, and that COVID, at this stage, is far more contagious, and showing a significantly higher mortality rate.
 

BaseballJones

goalpost mover
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
8,583
You made a comparison to flu. That a lot of people die from flu season and we get on with our lives. But flu never overwhelms the healthcare system. COVID is ultimately is going to kill a lot more people than the worst year of flu. Flu is something where people are much more obviously symptomatic and probably less contagious and more briefly contagious. Flu season basically ends.
The risk of me going out somewhere right now and catching something randomly from someone that will kill me or ultimately be passed on to a member of my family or a co-worker or a co/workers family and kill one of them (or disable one of them for weeks) is much higher for COVID than it is for flu. Basically, the chances of me going to a restaurant or a ballgame before I get immunity or something else changes is zero.
I first brought up the flu only to speak of the possibility of the coronavirus mutating, and I wondered if herd immunity would take care of it if new strains could pop up like what happens with the flu from time to time. Then cornwalls@6 said, "The flu shot is far from bullet proof, as you point out. But despite still high infection rates, and not insignificant mortality numbers in some years, we don't shut down public life and the economy out of a fear of getting the flu." And I was just responding to that last point about how we don't shut public life down, even in bad flu seasons which infect 40+ million people, hospitalize 600,000+ people, and kill 50,000+ people. Those numbers are pretty bad and we really don't do anything different. Which is true.

I don't see how me saying that means you guys are coming away thinking that I think that covid-19 is basically the flu. I never said it was or even hinted at it. I'm just making one simple point. I notice that nobody is pushing back on cornwalls@6 for saying what he said as I quoted above. (nor should you)

So again, I don't understand what you guys think I'm thinking that needs to change.
 

BaseballJones

goalpost mover
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
8,583
The point of our exchange was never that COVID 19 is like the flu. It was a discussion of what likely needs to happen for people to feel comfortable enough to get back out and attend large public events, like an NFL game. I think it will be a vaccine. It was about public perception and confidence, even if that confidence may be somewhat false. Fully aware that the 2 viruses are not the same thing, and that COVID, at this stage, is far more contagious, and showing a significantly higher mortality rate.
Thank you. I really appreciate this post.