Let's Talk in Earnest about Gallo

[SumnerH]

BR has a post up on Joey Gallo, who is currently on pace for 50+ home runs with a 92 OPS+. He's below the Mendoza line, hitting .197 with a .274 OBP:

The 29 guys in baseball history who have hit 50 home runs in a season? Only one had an OPS+ below 150. That was Andruw Jones in 2005 with the Atlanta Braves, and his was still more than respectable at 136.

(Before you run off to look, Brady Anderson had a 156 OPS+ in 1996).

Last year, Gallo had a 121 OPS+, which is pretty good—but still low given that he had 41 HR. He hit just .209 with a .333 OBP. He's a career .200 hitter with a .310 OBP.

Joey Gallo Could Have the Worst 50 Home Run Season in MLB History

At least by the metrics, he's a pretty average to mediocre fielder as well.

 

[grimshaw]

I don't think he can sustain a long term job since he doesn't bring enough other things to the table and his one exceptional tool isn't difficult to pay for. The historical numbers are just against him.

There are 19 3b in history with a k-rate of 25% (he is 35% this year) or higher who managed 1000 plate appearances (Gallo is at 909).

The best of those players are Mark Reynolds and Russell Branyan who at least managed .obps around .330. Gallo's is .281 this year and .311 for his career.

I'd be surprised if he was a full time starter two years from now.

 

[kenneycb]

He’s a 1B or LF now, so those comps don’t really apply.

 

[grimshaw]

Regardless - there are very few players who had good careers with k-rates over 30%. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=np&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=1918&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=10,d

That he plays a lower spectrum position now makes the likelihood of maintaining a long term job a bit dubious. Times have changed a lot, obviously, but even for this era he strikes out more than all but Sano who is struggling more than Gallo.

 

[DanoooME]

Even if you expand the cutoff to 40 HR seasons, the worst one of those is Tony Batista in 2000 with a 102 OPS+. Even Kingman had an OPS+ of 146 in his only 40+ HR season (1979).

 

[tonyarmasjr]

I don't think he can sustain a long term job since he doesn't bring enough other things to the table and his one exceptional tool isn't difficult to pay for. The historical numbers are just against him.

There are 19 3b in history with a k-rate of 25% (he is 35% this year) or higher who managed 1000 plate appearances (Gallo is at 909).

The best of those players are Mark Reynolds and Russell Branyan who at least managed .obps around .330. Gallo's is .281 this year and .311 for his career.

I'd be surprised if he was a full time starter two years from now.

Chris Carter immediately comes to my mind. Led the NL with 41 HR in 2016, while posting a 112 wRC+, slashing .222/.321/.499 with a 32% K rate. All numbers that were pretty well in line with his previous 3 years. Last year, he saw 208 PA as a part-timer with the mfy. This year, he's in AAA.

 

[Sad Sam Jones]

If it was based entirely on performance I'm not sure if he'd still be starting in another 2 years or not, but I'll be surprised if he isn't since Texas would need to either develop or pay someone better to replace him. He still has 4+ years of cheap servitude, and there have been several 1-tool power hitters who have gotten 4-6 years of opportunities as a regular to develop into something more.

*

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Regardless - there are very few players who had good careers with k-rates over 30%. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=np&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=1918&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=10,d

That he plays a lower spectrum position now makes the likelihood of maintaining a long term job a bit dubious. Times have changed a lot, obviously, but even for this era he strikes out more than all but Sano who is struggling more than Gallo.

I'd guess we'll see more players in the next few years succeed with higher k rates. A lot of the guys on that list are from recent years.

 

[grimshaw]

I'd guess we'll see more players in the next few years succeed with higher k rates. A lot of the guys on that list are from recent years.

We're trending towards that, but the difference is that those players will have to bring other above average tools or play up the middle positions.

He isn't doing himself any favors by refusing to play 3b either.
http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/23523587/joey-gallo-fill-texas-rangers-hole-third-base-not-help-it

 

[Dahabenzapple2]

Judge is at 38.9% of AB's & 31.6% of plate appearances - his rates in 2018 are almost identical to 2017 so it looks like whatever he is doing is sustainable. His numbers are very similar this year except the homers are down a bit (probably predictable) but BA & OBA are so close it's almost scary.

the amazing part is even with those K rates, his OPS is still a bit over 1.000. His best skill might be his ability to lay off close pitches. Without that ability he would be Kingman or Gallo like.

 

[jon abbey]

His best skill might be his ability to lay off close pitches. Without that ability he would be Kingman or Gallo like.

He gets more called strikes outside of the box than any other player in baseball, he would almost certainly be the single player to most benefit from electronic ball/strike calls.

 

[jon abbey]

I want to make a post in this thread where we factor in that the ball seems to carry better in Arlington than in any other AL park, the Coors of the AL, but I can't decide if that makes Gallo a better fit for TEX or for literally any other team except COL. I guess it depends on the average distance of his HRs.

 

[grimshaw]

He's been better at home like one would expect but not a huge difference in power.
.208/.335/.508 vs. .190/.276/.476 on the road. 34 home runs in Texas vs 29 on the road.

His average home run distance this year is 402 according to statcast which is just in the top 3rd or so of players.

He did average the 3rd longest last year though at 421.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Somehow, Gallo has been actually quite consistent from month to month and hasn't posted an OPS less than .749 in any given month since 2016, where he only played 16 games that season. I find that remarkable, especially since he hit .209 last year and is hitting .211 this year.

Gallo is now slashing .211/.292/.474 with an OPS of 99. He has raised his OPS 42 points in his last 23 PA.

All of this is to say, we are still in the SSS phase, and the fact that he's pretty close to an average hitter means his season could go in either direction pretty quickly. Also, he is now on pace for 41 HRs.

Maybe he'll replace Rob Deer as the Three True Outcomes poster child.

 

[SirPsychoSquints]

Maybe he'll replace Rob Deer as the Three True Outcomes poster child.

Using this as a quick jumping off point - I pulled down every career with at least 1,000 K's or at least 1,100 walks (I got lazy). The leaders of TTO% are (HR + K + BB + HBP / PA):

1. Russell Branyan 51.4%
2. Adam Dunn 51.0%
3. Rob Deer 49.8%
4. Chris Davis 48.7%
5. Jim Thome 48.2%
6. Mark Reynolds 47.8%
7. Giancarlo Stanton 46.8%
8. Carlos Pena 46.8%
9. Mark McGwire 46.6%
10. Mike Napoli 46.0%

Gallo is at 59.3% for his career!

The above order is almost exactly the same if you exclude HBP.

Lowest:

1. Ty Cobb 16.3%
2. Tris Speaker 16.6%
3. Eddie Collins 17.3%
4. Charlie Gehringer 17.5%
5. Ichiro Suzuki 17.7%

 

[grimshaw]

We have one of those guys in our system too in a much smaller sample, but he doesn't have much of a chance to make it back up.

Mike Olt has been a 50% guy in 400 career plate appearances.

Jack Cust also missed the cut, but did 53.4% in 2500+ plate appearances which is impressive for someone who lasted parts of 10 seasons.

 

[SirPsychoSquints]

Note - among the folks who had fewer than 1,000 Ks (and therefore had more than 1,100 BBs) the leaders are:

1. Ted Williams 33.6%
2. Lou Gehrig 32.7%
3. Eddie Yost 30.2%
4. Brian Giles 30.1%
5. Max Bishop 29.0%

The fewest PAs that made my list was Branyan @ 3,398.


I stayed lazy but got smarter with the Play Index. Expanding to any player in the top 400 in baseball history in K or BB or HR:

1. Branyan
2. Chris Carter 51.2%
3. Dunn
4. Deer
5. Davis
6. Thome
7. Reynolds
8. Stanton
9. Pena
10. McGwire

This is anyone with at least 908 K or 180 HR or 665 BB. Carter is the player on the list with the fewest PAs with 2,853.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Just because I was looking at his baseball reference earlier, Moncada is at 50.1% in 453 PA and far different than every other guy on that list.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Miguel Sano is at a career mark of 53.9% in 1436 PA.
Aaron Judge is at 57.0% in 1014 PA.

edit: Hmm. He hasn't improved much with the bat but Joc Pederson is interesting...
2015: 29.1% K rate, 15.7% BB rate in 585 PA
2016: 27.3% K rate, 13.2% BB rate in 476 PA
2017: 21.1% K rate, 12.1% BB rate in 323 PA
2018: 15.3% K rate, 11.3% BB rate in 150 PA.

 

[jon abbey]

Bump, our boy hit a couple of massive late game HRs off Hand and Cody Allen last night, still hitting .190 with 24 HRs and a .760 OPS.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Somehow, Gallo has been actually quite consistent from month to month and hasn't posted an OPS less than .749 in any given month since 2016.

He had a .696 OPS in June of this year, followed by a .159/.326/.464 July where his BAbip was .143.

He's had a great 4 games in August, slashing .353/.421/.941 and has raised his season line to .195/.308/.477, or an OPS+ of 102. Kinda ridiculous having an ISO close to .300 when you're hitting .200. He has 71 total hits this year, 29 are homeruns, 27 are singles. He also has 14 doubles and 1 triple.

 

[grimshaw]

His defensive metrics aren't too bad and he moves well on the bases for a big guy too. Reminds me a bit of early career Adam Dunn when he wasn't a lumberer. Though Dunn was a much better hitter.

I don't think Gallo will age well once those metrics slip. A 102 OPS+ won't cut it for the position(s) he plays.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

He had another huge game yesterday and has raised his line from .187/.303/.454 to .202/.314/.491 in 7 August games.

Now he's at .379/.455/.931 for the month of August. 5 HRs, 4bb/11k in 33 PA.

I'd guess he doesn't age well either but is he really a 102 OPS+ bat (now 105)? It's possible he's better than that and was just having a sophomore slump. Granted it is also possible he is worse but he's been remarkably consistent over his career month to month. Last year was his first full season and he put up a 118 OPS+ at age 23 so you'd expect him to make some improvements with time. I don't need to tell you this but there's a big difference between 102 and 118.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Still having a huge August. Now at .323/.397/.708 for the month and up to .208/.317/.494 for the year.

1st Half Last year: .194/.313/.508, 291 PA
2nd Half last year: .229/.357/.572, 241 PA

1st half 2018: .187/.296/.443, 365 PA
2nd half 2018: .278/.386/.660 in 114 PA atm.

OPS+ now at 109.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Last 145 PA: .273/.359/.641, .354 BAbip. 17bb/51k. To date: .210/.318/.504 OPS+ 111