Let's talk about this ballclub.

nighthob

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Someone else may have mentioned this already, but a snafu in future plans is X has an opt-out option after 2022 (as does Sale).
It's not a worry, they aren't going to trade him because they're getting fantastic production out of him at a key spot for little money.
 

OurF'ingCity

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Who are the Red Sox version of Chapman, Beltran, etc?
My point was they're not on the team yet, but they could be after this offseason. Say you overpay a little bit for people like Liam Hendriks, Trevor May, or, heck, bring back old friend Daniel Bard on a 2-year deal or whatever. If one or two of them pitch well, but the team still sucks, the Sox should be able to turn those players into prospects at the deadline. (Using pitchers for example purposes but the same principle applies for batters as well.)

You're right that the Yankees' 2016 strategy will very likely be impossible for any team to exactly replicate going forward - my point was more generally just that there are ways to upgrade the farm system beyond just throwing in the towel for 2-3 years.
 

Yelling At Clouds

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Someone else may have mentioned this already, but a snafu in future plans is X has an opt-out option after 2022 (as does Sale).
This is neither here nor there, but I think it’s interesting: Lindor, Correa, Seager, Story, and Baez are all scheduled to become FAs during the same offseason as of this moment. (Bogaerts’s opt-out is for the season after.)
 
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dynomite

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Just by the virtue of time, the Sox will have a better staff than next year assuming Sale and Eduardo come back, however they need to go full fire sale and move anything of value this year if possible.

Trading Mookie wasn’t just the start of a one year salary cap reset like most were hoping. The farm system is weak and isn’t supplementing the big league roster like it was in previous years. The pitching development in particular has been beyond awful, which is how you end up with Eovaldi and his contract.

Sox ownership needs to take a hard look in the mirror and commit to the multi year rebuild.
Well but I think your middle paragraph cuts both ways, doesn't it? If there's no help from the farm system, no relief is riding to the rescue in the next few years no matter what they do, and yet... they still have a solid offensive core of Devers, Xander, Verdugo, Vaz, and likely JDM (whose contract seems tough to move). If Benintendi, Chavis, and/or Dalbec turns into something, even better.

So could they contend in 2021 while still restocking? I think the answer is yes. As I alluded to in another thread:

1) Sell off the obvious candidates this year (Workman, Pillar, JBJ, etc.) and hope to stock a few decent prospects in the system.
2) Sign Trevor Bauer to 1 year/ $30M.
3) Sign some RP help (Jeremy Jeffress, Pedro Baez)

There you have a roster that's well under the luxury tax, doesn't have a massive new long-term commitment, and if you get to July 2021 and it's not working, you dump Bauer and others for more prospects. And yes, Bauer has committed to only playing for contenders, but how much risk is there when you know you'll be traded to a contender in August?
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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Why in God's name would you give Bauer $30 million? He'll be 30 next season and he has a 110 career ERA+. He's had exactly one impressive season in 2018, the rest of his career screams "Porcello."
 

Laser Show

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Rosenthal notes in the Athletic today that Bogaerts has no trade protection kick in for the remainder of his contract after the trade deadline this year (technically 9/6, when he reaches 7 years of service).

Link: https://theathletic.com/2004148/2020/08/18/rosenthal-the-yanks-case-for-lindor-bogaerts-future-this-seasons-unfairness?source=user-shared-article

He speculates that the Red Sox are "almost obligated" to see what he'd bring back.

Honestly if they deal Bogaerts I might check out on baseball for a while. This collapse and tear down is approaching the absurd.
 

Rovin Romine

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Rosenthal notes in the Athletic today that Bogaerts has no trade protection kick in for the remainder of his contract after the trade deadline this year (technically 9/6, when he reaches 7 years of service).
Xander is signed through age 32 (with a 33 vesting option) at $20 a year. The only reason to trade him is if you think you're not going to be competitive in 2021, 22, 23, 24, or 25. Or you get some insane return.
 

Papo The Snow Tiger

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Rosenthal notes in the Athletic today that Bogaerts has no trade protection kick in for the remainder of his contract after the trade deadline this year (technically 9/6, when he reaches 7 years of service).

Link: https://theathletic.com/2004148/2020/08/18/rosenthal-the-yanks-case-for-lindor-bogaerts-future-this-seasons-unfairness?source=user-shared-article

He speculates that the Red Sox are "almost obligated" to see what he'd bring back.

Honestly if they deal Bogaerts I might check out on baseball for a while
. This collapse and tear down is approaching the absurd.
If they trade Bogaerts it will take years for them to recover from the PR hit. First they trade their best, most popular player for monetary reasons and follow that up by having a historically bad season. Then they go ahead and trade the remaining best, most popular player because they can't contend? People will only root for the laundry for so long.
 

rlsb

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I don't believe that JWH et al believe that they "ain't seen nuthin' like the Mighty Quinn."
 

CoffeeNerdness

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The only reason to trade him is if you think you're not going to be competitive in 2021, 22, 23, 24, or 25.
This honestly feels like a distinct possibility. The Detroit Tigers canned Dombrowski in August of 2015 and since then they've had one winning season and seasons where they've won 64, 64, and 47 games. If Bloom can turn this org from a smoking crater to a fertile field in 2-3 years he'll have done an incredible job. I'm highly pessimistic on Sale returning to form or being a guy who can get it done with diminished stuff, ERod is a complete unknown, the farm is laughable. Depressing stuff.
 

Laser Show

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Not to belabor the point, but can't X just opt out after 2022 and test free agency?
This is the key point. From the Rosenthal article:

His deal allows him to opt out after ’22, an option he very well might pursue, considering that 2021-22 free agents Francisco Lindor, Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Javier Báez and Trevor Story already would have reset the market for shortstops
 

sean1562

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Also with a new CBA. I definitely expect Xander to opt out but maybe the new rules will benefit larger payroll teams?
 

Rovin Romine

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The only reason to trade him is if you think you're not going to be competitive in 2021, 22, 23, 24, or 25. Or you get some insane return.
This honestly feels like a distinct possibility. The Detroit Tigers canned Dombrowski in August of 2015 and since then they've had one winning season and seasons where they've won 64, 64, and 47 games. If Bloom can turn this org from a smoking crater to a fertile field in 2-3 years he'll have done an incredible job. I'm highly pessimistic on Sale returning to form or being a guy who can get it done with diminished stuff, ERod is a complete unknown, the farm is laughable. Depressing stuff.
A lot depends on Sale and ERod: it's far too early to know. Sale's really the "big" risk, since we're on the hook for awhile, but there's always some cash that gets carried on bad contracts. ERod won't (I hope) get extended without a clean bill of health. The upside is they're both healthy/effective, in which case we can hope for a reasonable ERod extension. A 2022 season with the two of them and the current core (more or less) is a competitive team. If we're lucky, maybe even a competitive 2021.

The only significant FAs we have at the end of this year are Pillar, JBJ, and Workman. I'm sure we can pick up a serviceable OF and some middle relief if that's all that's standing between a healthy staff and competition at the beginning of 2022.

As to the Farm. . .yeah, it's great when there's a slew of young players unfolding, but it's really a value-bank you can use to purchase ML assets or promote from within. Right now it's not entirely bare. If I ran the Sox I'd keep close tabs on the few ready to make the jump and do whatever I could to help that. Training, coaching, nutrition, etc. (I mean the fact that Devers got fat(er) is kind of a farce in the 21st century.) Maybe we get lucky with one. Maybe that's all we need.
 

Mr. Wednesday

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Also with a new CBA ... maybe the new rules will benefit larger payroll teams?
Recent history suggests the opposite. It seems like just about every change over the last ten years has been to restrict the ability of the big revenue teams to exercise a monetary advantage in payroll and talent acquisition (draft, international signings).
 

RedOctober3829

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The Bogaerts trade discussion makes sense on a lot of levels. I did not previously know about the NTC provision so this would change my thinking on him. He can bring back a lot in order to refill the farm system and opens up a spot for any of those big SS after next year. If he's just going to opt out after 2022, the SS position is not filled long-term anyways. Bloom did not draft or develop these guys so he's not emotionally tied to them like someone else would be if they brought him into the system. I would think this move would not be popular in the locker room, but if it's more about the long-term at this point it's malpractice to not at least explore what Bogaerts would bring back.
 

BaseballJones

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Is it unreasonable to think that Sale will be back and will be elite by August 2021? I don't think so.
Is it unreasonable to think that ERod will be back and healthy and post an era between 3.50 and 3.90? I don't think so.
Is it unreasonable to think that JDM, X, and Devers will be 30 hr, 90 rbi, .300 type hitters in 2021? I don't think so.
Is it unreasonable to think that Barnes and Workman can pitch much better than they have this year, and that Hernandez can be back and productive in the bullpen? I don't think so.
Is it unreasonable to think that Verdugo is good and that Benintendi will be much better? I don't think so.

None of those, taken individually or even collectively, are unreasonable thoughts. If they happen, this team will already be light years better than what it is now. It simply wouldn't take too much for this team to be a contender for the playoffs. Honestly. A (healthy) rotation of Sale, ERod, Eovaldi, and Perez is pretty solid. A bullpen anchored by an effective Barnes, Workman, and Hernandez can be pretty decent. And a lineup with a "normal" Devers, X, JDM, Verdugo, and Benintendi should score runs.

So the additions would be: another starting pitcher and a couple more quality bullpen arms. If these totally reasonable things above happen then they really shouldn't need to add much to be good again. But this year...omg they're missing Sale, ERod, and Hernandez, and they're getting NO production from Devers and Benintendi (who's now hurt), and JDM has way underperformed. This team looks awful because it's ALL gone to hell at once this year.
 

jon abbey

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As to the Farm. . .yeah, it's great when there's a slew of young players unfolding, but it's really a value-bank you can use to purchase ML assets or promote from within.
This is the mindset that leads to boom and bust cycles, you need to develop your own pre-arb talent (or find other people's castoffs who then blossom).
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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Is it unreasonable to think that Sale will be back and will be elite by August 2021? I don't think so.
Is it unreasonable to think that ERod will be back and healthy and post an era between 3.50 and 3.90? I don't think so.
Is it unreasonable to think that JDM, X, and Devers will be 30 hr, 90 rbi, .300 type hitters in 2021? I don't think so.
Is it unreasonable to think that Barnes and Workman can pitch much better than they have this year, and that Hernandez can be back and productive in the bullpen? I don't think so.
Is it unreasonable to think that Verdugo is good and that Benintendi will be much better? I don't think so.
1. He's coming off UCL surgery and will be another year older. It's unreasonable to think he won't struggle at times.
2. ERod now has a heart issue due to COVID. It's unreasonable to expect anything from him at all until we know more.
3. It's not even reasonable to think that 2 of the three (JDM, X) will even be here in 2021 given JDM's a FA and X is rumored to be shopped.
4. All of these are complete guesses.
5. The first is reasonable, the second much less so given how much he's fallen off.

Basically, this entire "plan" you've got here is based on completely unknown and unduly optimistic predictions, or hopes.

There are far too many moving pieces and less than sure things. We're not even sure if ERod will ever play again, for example.
 

jon abbey

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Right now there is zero chance JD is opting out, maybe if he went nuts for the rest of the season but still pretty unlikely a DH only would walk away from 2/39 in this climate.
 

BaseballJones

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1. He's coming off UCL surgery and will be another year older. It's unreasonable to think he won't struggle at times.
2. ERod now has a heart issue due to COVID. It's unreasonable to expect anything from him at all until we know more.
3. It's not even reasonable to think that 2 of the three (JDM, X) will even be here in 2021 given JDM's a FA and X is rumored to be shopped.
4. All of these are complete guesses.
5. The first is reasonable, the second much less so given how much he's fallen off.

Basically, this entire "plan" you've got here is based on completely unknown and unduly optimistic predictions, or hopes.

There are far too many moving pieces and less than sure things. We're not even sure if ERod will ever play again, for example.
I didn't say anything about things being "known". I said, "Is it unreasonable to think...." And no, none of those things are unreasonable to think could happen. It's not crazy talk. It's also far from certain. Of course, I never said anything remotely like "certain".

JDM isn't a FA. He would need to opt out, but right now, he's under contract. X is rumored to be shopped? Heh. There was an article suggesting that it would be a good idea for them to consider it.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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Ah my mistake on JDM. I knew he opted in last year, didn't realize it was for several more years.

My issue with "It's not unreasonable to think" is that it's not dealing with percentages or chances. And once you start multiplying those together you have an infiniately small chance that any or all of them go right.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Ah my mistake on JDM. I knew he opted in last year, didn't realize it was for several more years.

My issue with "It's not unreasonable to think" is that it's not dealing with percentages or chances. And once you start multiplying those together you have an infiniately small chance that any or all of them go right.
Just as it's a small chance that everything goes wrong?

Yet here we are.
 

Rovin Romine

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This is the mindset that leads to boom and bust cycles, you need to develop your own pre-arb talent (or find other people's castoffs who then blossom).
Depends on how disciplined and lucky you are in spending/acquiring/developing talent. Anderson Espinoza, Trey Ball, Daniel Flores. . .all may have had a lot of trade/development value at any given instant of time, and so tipped the farm system ratings one way or another; but only one translated into any MLB WAR.
 

RedOctober3829

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Fox is just looking for hate clicks from Boston now

View: https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/1295761353471414272
Why would that generate "hate clicks"? Bloom should be open to anything that makes the team better in the long-term. Their problem is the lack of good pre-arb starting pitching. If Verdugo can bring back that plus a good prospect or two, then you have to think about it. It's much easier to find a right fielder to plug in versus young, cost controlled starting pitching.
 

amRadio

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I would love to see them explore a trade for Clevinger. I'm not sure I want to part with Verdugo given his age and control, but how much is actually known about Jeter Downs? Less than 20 games in AA, iirc. I know the long term strategy here has to be to bolster minor league depth, not diminish it, but bringing in Clevinger could potentially change the ML rotation significantly for years. I would definitely try to see if CLE would listen to an offer built around Downs and Casas.
 

Manramsclan

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Ah my mistake on JDM. I knew he opted in last year, didn't realize it was for several more years.
It's not for several more years. You were right the first time and I think you both were saying the same thing: JD is currently under contract and he has an opt-out after 2020 and 2021.

JD Martinez Contract Details Here

It's tough to figure out anyone's decisions with regard to this but I think it's just as easy to think of him opting out (due to the near term competitiveness of the team) as it is to see him opting in (the uncertain economics of the game due to the pandemic etc.).
 

Yelling At Clouds

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Why would that generate "hate clicks"? Bloom should be open to anything that makes the team better in the long-term. Their problem is the lack of good pre-arb starting pitching. If Verdugo can bring back that plus a good prospect or two, then you have to think about it. It's much easier to find a right fielder to plug in versus young, cost controlled starting pitching.
I’m almost certain this is a leak from one of the two FOs, my guess would be Cleveland.
 

JBJ_HOF

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I would love to see them explore a trade for Clevinger. I'm not sure I want to part with Verdugo given his age and control, but how much is actually known about Jeter Downs? Less than 20 games in AA, iirc. I know the long term strategy here has to be to bolster minor league depth, not diminish it, but bringing in Clevinger could potentially change the ML rotation significantly for years. I would definitely try to see if CLE would listen to an offer built around Downs and Casas.
Two top 100 prospects for 2 years of a starting pitcher, while you're in the middle of a rebuild, seems like a terrible idea.
 

jon abbey

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Depends on how disciplined and lucky you are in spending/acquiring/developing talent. Anderson Espinoza, Trey Ball, Daniel Flores. . .all may have had a lot of trade/development value at any given instant of time, and so tipped the farm system ratings one way or another; but only one translated into any MLB WAR.
Great, but so what? You need to have pre-arb contributors to compete year-in and year-out, the lack of them is what leads to the boom and bust years we've seen from BOS recently. They don't all work out, that's why the best systems like LAD and TB and NYY stockpile a ton of them.

Also, Flores, really? I'm sure you could find a better example than a 17 year old kid who was dead within six months of being signed.
 

greek_gawd_of_walks

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Why the hate?
I have to say that between the obnoxiously overaggressive base running, the humongous gold 99 pendant and the gold acentented body armor, everything about verdugo is too loud for my taste. He's young, so maybe he matures.

That said, I don't hate him. He just smacks something of Puig kind of, although, to his credit, I haven't seen verdugo take a play off, yet.
 

OurF'ingCity

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Oh god, we're not really going to start seriously talking about trading Bogaerts now, are we? He's precisely the player you DON'T trade in a situation like this - he's a great player on a great, team-friendly deal. The existence of the opt out is irrelevant to this discussion because it applies equally no matter which team Bogaerts is on, meaning that teams will factor that in and correspondingly offer less in trade as a result.

If there is any chance that the Red Sox will be competitive in 2021 or 2022, there is no reason to trade X. If they did trade him, they'd be essentially conceding those seasons and probably a few beyond as well (since whatever prospects they got for X would need at least a few years of seasoning). And if that is the case, why not just go ahead and trade Devers too (free agent after 2023)?

The Mookie trade was justifiable purely for financial reasons. No such financial reasons exist for trading Bogaerts and thus there is simply no reason to trade him.
 

jon abbey

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So do it the other way around - other than Moncada, who has turned into anything?
I think you misunderstand my point, I have always agreed that DD did not give away a ton of young talent. His 'crime' was not doing nearly as good of a job at filling up the system as NY and TB were doing, and now BOS is way way behind. Below is the statement I was answering (sorry for quoting the same thing twice, RR):

As to the Farm. . .yeah, it's great when there's a slew of young players unfolding, but it's really a value-bank you can use to purchase ML assets or promote from within.
You cannot build a team this way in 2020, you can get lucky for a season here or there but you have got to develop depth up and down the system to be successful consistently.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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I think you misunderstand my point, I have always agreed that DD did not give away a ton of young talent. His 'crime' was not doing nearly as good of a job at filling up the system as NY and TB were doing, and now BOS is way way behind. Below is the statement I was answering (sorry for quoting the same thing twice, RR):
Misunderstood, I thought you were focusing solely on the examples RR gave, at least in the portion I quoted. I forgot that Flores had - quite literally - passed away right after signing and thought you were making a euphemism on his prospect status. Apologies.
 

CarolinaBeerGuy

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I have to say that between the obnoxiously overaggressive base running, the humongous gold 99 pendant and the gold acentented body armor, everything about verdugo is too loud for my taste. He's young, so maybe he matures.

That said, I don't hate him. He just smacks something of Puig kind of, although, to his credit, I haven't seen verdugo take a play off, yet.
This seems like the worst possible take. Hate or dislike the guy for his off-field issues if you want, but being upset about the way he dresses? Come on.
 
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greek_gawd_of_walks

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This seems like the worst possible take.
I don't like his personality. Not the first time I didn't like a guy's attitude. Just explaining why some folks aren't a huge fan of him.

And I said I don't hate him. He just rubs me the wrong way. I wasn't advocating trading him. Just that he takes dumb risks, especially on the bases and is not my cup of tea in general. He's played as well as anyone on the 2020 roster.

It's like, my opinion, man.
 

amRadio

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Two top 100 prospects for 2 years of a starting pitcher, while you're in the middle of a rebuild, seems like a terrible idea.
Clevinger is a free agent after the 2023 season, that's three years of control, and how long do we expect a "rebuild" to go on? Casas has pretty rough numbers for a single-A 1B that is projected so highly and he hasn't even sniffed AA yet. Downs has maybe 20 games of AA under his belt? They're good prospects, but with the MLB staff being what it is, I don't think it's a "terrible" idea to explore exchanging essentially pre-AA prospects for a quality starter. Given the state of our minor league depth at the moment, would it really be any more palatable to dangle four years of Verdugo for Clevinger or a similar quality pitcher? Opinions of Verdugo the human being set aside, I would prefer the higher pedigree MLB talent. Verdugo was ranked a lot higher on the top 100 a couple years ago than either Downs or Casas.
 

nighthob

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Rosenthal notes in the Athletic today that Bogaerts has no trade protection kick in for the remainder of his contract after the trade deadline this year (technically 9/6, when he reaches 7 years of service).

Link: https://theathletic.com/2004148/2020/08/18/rosenthal-the-yanks-case-for-lindor-bogaerts-future-this-seasons-unfairness?source=user-shared-article

He speculates that the Red Sox are "almost obligated" to see what he'd bring back.

Honestly if they deal Bogaerts I might check out on baseball for a while. This collapse and tear down is approaching the absurd.
I mean if the Yankees called and offered Torres and the top of their prospect list for Bogaerts I'm sure Boston would listen. But that contract is so team friendly that there's no way he's getting traded.
 

BaseballJones

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Clevinger is really good. He's also 29 with two more years of control after this one. He plays a premium position.

Verdugo might be really good. He's showing promise. He's also just 24 with three more years of control after this one. He doesn't play premium position.

I can see arguments either way for which player people might prefer for the Red Sox at this point. If Verdugo could be traded straight up for Verdugo, Clevinger(!!!) you do it, IMO. But it wouldn't be that, and so the extra that Boston would have to send might be a deal breaker for me.
 
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Rovin Romine

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Great, but so what? You need to have pre-arb contributors to compete year-in and year-out, the lack of them is what leads to the boom and bust years we've seen from BOS recently. They don't all work out, that's why the best systems like LAD and TB and NYY stockpile a ton of them.

Also, Flores, really? I'm sure you could find a better example than a 17 year old kid who was dead within six months of being signed.
I think we're sort of talking past each other, so I won't continue.
 

InsideTheParker

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Yep. It's a measure of how odd things are that I plain forgot to add no minor-league ball/prospect development to the list of the craziness.

If you're jonsing for good baseball in the micro sense - the crisp double play, the solid pitching performance, etc. Do you have an alternate NL team you can follow? Because now would be the time. For me, the macro has changed so much, I just can't seem to take any of it seriously. I mean, the micro is still cool and all, but without the marathon context of the full season (with trade ideas and prospect development and deadlines and endurance), it feels like it's just altheticism without strategy.
I have an alternate AL team, Oakland. I have enjoyed them for several years now, but I only get to watch them this year when a national channel carries the game. I really can't watch the Red Sox anymore. It's annoying to see them impacting the post-season by giving away games to NYY.