If he had a repeat of 2018 in 2019 instead of a per his standards pretty bad year, and then becomes a free agent what do you think someone would have been willing to pay him in free agency?
Let's talk about this ballclub.
- Thread starter nvalvo
- Start date
There was no reason to do the Sale extension when they did it, and it's really come back to bite them big time. That was the major error they made.
Can you walk me through how? If you subtract Sale but you add Betts and Price back, I think they'd be around $214M, so still over the cap number (although they could have tried something else to get under), with a good chance of Mookie walking for a draft pick this winter, Price on the team through 2022 at $31M and no Verdugo or Downs.
It's tough to know what decisions would or would not have been made. Without Sale, they'd have tried for another starting pitcher probably. Who knows the chain of events, but any time you're saddled with a $30m+ contract for several years and the guy spends half of it injured, it's not good for the team.
How was the Sale extension above market? If the option is picked up or vests it's a 27.5m AAV contract. Sale had just averaged about 6.3 fWAR/5.9 bWAR over the past 3 seasons. That's about $4.3-4.6m per WAR. That's pretty favorable, particularly for an elite player. Furthermore, a third of the contract is deferred money which makes it a bit more favorable still.
In retrospect the contract looks very questionable right now and I think you can make a strong argument that it was a serious mistake given the obvious injury risk. I think @DeadlySplitter makes a great point that the problem may not have been with the deal itself but with the team's medical assessment of Sale. He had just put up three great seasons in a row, but like you said he faded hard at the end of 2018 and the team probably should have been very wary given his mechanics. But clearly the team concluded that there was a good chance that the injury/problem would heal by 2019 and the ongoing risk was at a manageable level to justify the deal. It's very possible that this conclusion is where the fault lies.
Also, as a side point, should we really be writing off Sale at this point? There's clearly a chance he never comes back. But if his late 2018 performance was the beginning of an elbow injury that ultimately lead to TJS, isn't it reasonable to think that he has a chance of coming back strong? TJS has revived many careers, and it's not like Sale is ancient. It's also not uncommon for elite pitchers to make adjustments in their early 30's that results in sustained success. He might not be a 6-7 WAR pitcher again, but I think if he can manage to put 4-5 WAR seasons over the next couple of years the contract will actually be worth it at least in those years. If that happens then at the end the extension looks somewhere between good and mediocre, but hardly a disaster -- particularly given that the fully lost year is in this joke of a season.
Sale's contract started this season, so he has certainly not been injured for half of it. They kind of lucked out that due to the pandemic they're only paying him for 60 games of rehab. If he comes back early next year and pitches well for the following four, it still could turn out to be a bargain.
As you insist on repeating this (or variations of it), can you point me to where our team is an embarrassment or a laughingstock? Is this print or TV media that's causing this? It strikes me as kind of entitled to think anyone outside our own fanbase is even paying attention.
This is based on a national writer, with no access to the team, speculating that they should explore his trade value.
I don't understand why it's never mentioned here when people talk about the farm system, but we couldn't sign any international free agents from 2015 to 2017. That's two whole classes that we lost because of stupid shenanigans pulled on Cherington's watch.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/07/red-sox-international-penalties.html
Of that first class that we signed and then lost, the only one who looks like he might do anything is Simon Muzziotti, who is not a bigtime prospect but could develop into a Manuel Margot type.
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/simon-muzziottis-winding-road-leads-to-phillies/
But the big loss was the next class, where we got no one. That's a big blow to the farm system right when we needed it the most. Players we may have signed in 2016/17 would be moving up in the minors now. If 2 or 3 of them were looking good, that would change the entire perception of the farm system.
I don't know how much international bonus pool money or draft position we've lost for going over the luxury tax for the past few years, but I'm sure that's had an impact too.
Yeah I agree with this - I think both fans and the media alike understand what the Sox are trying to do. I don’t think anyone is calling them a laughingstock. Do they suck this year? Sure. But the overall track record of the last 15+ years gives them some benefit of the doubt.
As long as we're playing "prove this," can you point us to where it's proven that Rosenthal has "no access to the team"?
Not only that, but a lot of the time, "speculation" from a guy like Rosenthal (or Morosi, Olney, Heyman, whomever) is code for "someone in the front office told me this was a possibility, but I can't actually report on it."
Nope, can anyone prove he does? You know what, I'll concede the point; let's assume he shares an official with Bloom. This is what he wrote :
Bolded is mine, the "money quote" people are wringing their hands over. At no point in that did he ever say they are, at no point did he ever said they would, he speculated that given the circumstances, it would make sense to do it. And we arrive at "and now they might move X". That seems like pretty huge jump to me, if not downright dramatic.
This is a good point that more people should process, just a few things:
1) That first class in 2015, BOS signed 45 players and 5 were later made FAs, so they did still end up with 40 guys.
2) They did get hurt by not being able to sign anyone in 2016, and obviously had awful luck with Flores in 2017, but what about 2018 and 2019? Cashman has been killing it in the international market the last few years, trading fringe 40 man players to get the most signing money possible and using that to land a bunch of top-rated guys including a possible franchise player in Jasson Dominguez (and another supposedly/potentially on the way in Roderick Arias). TB has also been killing it in the international market (Franco in 2017 and the top-rated guy in July 2020, now pushed to Jan 2021). BOS hasn't done much the last two seasons internationally that I'm aware of, that is a black mark on DD's record.
You and Gray Eagle make some good points. After Dombrowski was fired, some suggested that he had spent too much time hanging out with the likes of Tony LaRussa and distanced himself from the player development/scouting guys. In his single-minded pursuit of a near-term World Series win he may have neglected the changes in the international free agent market. Cashman, on the other hand, may have finally learned something about a comprehensive approach to building a team after chasing free agents during the Steinbrenner era and afterward.
Speier posted this in the Globe yesterday, but I'm pretty sure it didn't come up. So, just for the record, Bloom all but said they're not going to be trading X or Devers:
Given that this quote comes right after that earlier report, I think it's a pretty clear response.
With all the unknowns (most notably how Covid-19 and the economy play out; and the CBA at the end of 2021), I simply don't see the soundness of trading off a guy who you can't lose for TWO more seasons after this one mercifully ends in 40 or so days. Even if it's a great offer, you could be screwing yourself down the road.
3 posts in this thread across 2 days where we win 2 games?
And none in 24 hours over our past win?
People run out of stuff to talk about?
And none in 24 hours over our past win?
People run out of stuff to talk about?
View: https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/1296852189110046720
Looks like Twitter embedding is broken
Red Sox president/CEO Sam Kennedy says that the Sox aren’t rebuilding, and that despite this year’s poor performance, the club remains committed to trying to contend every year and will invest in payroll accordingly
https://t.co/1lEm2HksZg
Looks like Twitter embedding is broken
Red Sox president/CEO Sam Kennedy says that the Sox aren’t rebuilding, and that despite this year’s poor performance, the club remains committed to trying to contend every year and will invest in payroll accordingly
https://t.co/1lEm2HksZg
Last edited:
“”That said, the team has no plans to commit to a multi-year trough.”
That’s the saddest line written about the Red Sox in 20 years. Not because Bloom and Kennedy won’t “commit” to tanking, but because long-term commitment to tanking is even a thing for the Red Sox.
That’s the saddest line written about the Red Sox in 20 years. Not because Bloom and Kennedy won’t “commit” to tanking, but because long-term commitment to tanking is even a thing for the Red Sox.
I just realized I never checked to see how the Sox did yesterday. I don't watch every game, even in normal times, but I'm not in the "baseball shouldn't be played during COVID and the season is a joke" camp either, but this team is so uninspiring that I just don't care very much about it. This is probably the first time I haven't known what the Sox have done on the same day since I lived in Europe in 1981 and had to wait to see yesterday's scores in the International Herald-Tribune.
I'm really amazed by this. I never thought I'd see the day.
I'm really amazed by this. I never thought I'd see the day.
Well said. I watched the '86 World Series at 8 am in my room at the Manila Hotel. I camped out on the observation deck of Tour Montparnasse to listen to the 1978 playoff game v. the MFY on Armed Forces Radio. Even before that my dad and I sheltered from the rain beneath the Fenway grandstands waiting for the beacon to turn green on the old Hancock building spire. In Pre-Radatz days even Ike Delock and Early Wynn inspired more confidence to protect a shaky late-inning lead. This team is absolutely dreadful.
I caught a few innings of the 1967 WS on Armed Forces TV, tape delayed by two days, while stationed in Cu Chi, RVN. Got there in early September, followed the pennant race via Stars & Stripes. That was the first pennant race I could not follow in real-time.
If the Sox can develop two or three new players in this COVID season, that’s a plus. Verdugo is one. Who else?
I don't know if he qualifies as a development so much as a late bloomer, but Phillips Valdez may make the list as a bullpen contributor. SSS and all, but he's looked good.
He hasn't exactly impressed in his playing time, IMO, but considering he's a Rule 5 guy and is probably over his head a bit, all he really needs to do this season is make it to the end. Then he might turn out to be a useful utility player for the next few years. He's got all his options so that gives the team some flexibility as well.
I dunno. Given his age and experience, I would say he is a real prospect. He's not striking out much and the Statcast stats think his line drive swing should have produced better than his .308/.325/.359 line.
Let's get through the year with him, give him an age 22 season in Worcester, and see where things stand.
I don't really know where this would go, but I just want to say I love Jackie Bradley Jr. I will be very sad when his tenure with the team eventually ends because he is just a great person.
View: https://twitter.com/RedSox/status/1298813007821242371
View: https://twitter.com/RedSox/status/1298813007821242371
Jackie did a great thing taking a stand on police murders of black males and racism in American life in general, provoking an emotional and supportive dialogue among players and coaches and a strong statement of support from manager Roenicke. Jackie should be off the trade market now. To trade him, especially for a wretched return, would stain what Jackie did in the last few days for a franchise with a less than stellar record on race.
I was thinking the same thing, but it's a business. I don't see any events in the past 48 hours changing the trade market.
that said, if they do trade him there's going to be some backlash. so be it, we need the prospect(s).
that said, if they do trade him there's going to be some backlash. so be it, we need the prospect(s).
I’m glad the team decided to join Jackie this time, after they left him alone taking a knee on opening day.
And I hope the Sox bring him back next year, on a reasonable contract.
Bingo. This is a baseball club that needs to bulk up their farm system. Bradley is a highly-paid golden glove center fielder with a very average bat. He’s not going to get any cheaper. The team (apparently) has a replacement in waiting. The fact he visibly stands up for a social issue shouldn’t be a factor in keeping him around if there’s a market.
Trading the club's only African-American player would make for terrible optics however. I wouldn't discount that issue; it's a serious one for this team in particular and one Bloom will have to tread carefully around. The last thing this organization needs is to once again be the only MLB club without any Black players.
View: https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/1299344481238560768?s=20
14 of the 30 teams have only one Black player. But no teams have zero. The Red Sox do NOT want to be that one team that has none.
Last edited:
I understand your point. But, man, that sure seems to be the wrong way to run a professional baseball club. At least if winning is the actual goal.
In usual times I would agree. These are highly unusual or atypical times.
I get your point, I really do. Get the best players no matter what, etc. But the Red Sox cannot become the only team without a Black player. The city's and team's history is checkered enough already, and they traded Mookie and Price after signing very pale guys in Eovaldi and Sale. The optics would be TERRIBLE.
Some would argue they already are. Yawkey's initials are still on the scoreboard in Morse code, after all. Only a few players knelt for the anthem on Opening Day while the entire Orioles team did so. All the white players went to the White House while none of the players of color did, etc. Their statement about not playing last night's game was a step in the right direction but there is much more that could be done.
The owners have certainly talked a lot over the years about the team being a civic institution and they're just caretakers; it's the usual pablum but there's a modicum of truth there and that means ensuring that they lead the way on some social issues.
Last edited:
Jackie wasn't completely alone. I recall Verdugo also taking a knee along with the training staff. I didn't notice anyone else from the active roster.
Seems unreal but I recall hearing that the Dodgers had no black players last year.
Yup, looks like it from checking their roster on B-Ref. I had been fooled because I had assumed they had one due to Kenley Jansen, but he's from Curacao, so he's not African-American.
Pretty shocking that the Dodgers who broke baseball's color line didn't have a single Black player.
Interesting point. I don't think of the Sox as a WASPy ballclub though - they definitely have minority players on the roster. I'm not sure how some of the Caribbean players view themselves in terms of the US racial spectrum. Anyone have any insights into that?
I think what the club does in supporting the local AA community (which I understand is good), how they treat AA fans and handle racist incidents in the stands (which they have made strong statements about), and how they treat AA employees from the top to the bottom of the organization (which I don't really know anything about) are all much more important than trading a single player and being without an AA player for a month. I've defended JBJ as a player, and he seems like a good guy, but if they get a good offer for him and let him go to a contending team and maybe play in the playoffs I don't think that is a slap in the face to Black America.
There are already 6 teams without a single African-American player.
From Speier in the Glob:
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/08/27/sports/baseballs-pause-offers-perfect-time-incubator-action/
From Speier in the Glob:
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/08/27/sports/baseballs-pause-offers-perfect-time-incubator-action/
Just because Jansen isn’t African American doesn’t mean he’s not Black. I’m not sure why this distinction matters.