Let's Talk about the manager -- The John Farrell Thread

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HriniakPosterChild

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geoduck no quahog said:
It would be a worthy SOSH debate to talk about what to do if

Lester's spot comes up with the score tied 1-1, the bases jacked with Xander, Drew and Ross - one out

Lester's spot with Xander on 3rd, either one or two outs

I'd guess that you'd need to ph with the go ahead run on 3rd and less than 2 outs.

Otherwise, leave him in the game.
 
In Farrell's postgame comments, he said that he would not have PH for Lester even if there had been runners on 2nd and 3rd in a tie game.
 
Harold Reynolds was apoplectic on the MLB Network when he heard this, saying that was disrespecting the Cardinal offense. It was not clear if it was as bad as, or worse, than Victorino's attempting a 9-3 putout in game 1 when up by 7 runs!1!!1!!!  !
 
Harold Reynolds must have some issues he needs to work through about being disrespected, having played on so many under .500 Seattle teams during his career.
 

djhb20

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[QUOTE="Hriniak]
 
In Farrell's postgame comments, he said that he would not have PH for Lester even if there had been runners on 2nd and 3rd in a tie game.
 
Harold Reynolds was apoplectic on the MLB Network when he heard this, saying that was disrespecting the Cardinal offense. It was not clear if it was as bad as, or worse, than Victorino's attempting a 9-3 putout in game 1 when up by 7 runs!1!!1!!!  !
 
Harold Reynolds must have some issues he needs to work through about being disrespected, having played on so many under .500 Seattle teams during his career.
[/QUOTE]
The best was Al Lieter flipping out on him about that nonsense right after. Eventually he just have up, as HR kept insisting.
 

joe dokes

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djhb20 said:
The best was Al Lieter flipping out on him about that nonsense right after. Eventually he just have up, as HR kept insisting.
 
I saw that. Utterly mystifying.
 
Reynolds goes off on the disrespect thing. Leiter does flip out and says, "H, where's the disrespect, Lester's having the game of his life, they can't touch him. Its a compliment to his pitcher."
 
Reynolds: "Exactly." :blink:
 

Orel Miraculous

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HriniakPosterChild said:
 
In Farrell's postgame comments, he said that he would not have PH for Lester even if there had been runners on 2nd and 3rd in a tie game.
 
Harold Reynolds was apoplectic on the MLB Network when he heard this, saying that was disrespecting the Cardinal offense. It was not clear if it was as bad as, or worse, than Victorino's attempting a 9-3 putout in game 1 when up by 7 runs!1!!1!!!  !
 
Harold Reynolds must have some issues he needs to work through about being disrespected, having played on so many under .500 Seattle teams during his career.
 
I saw that and I don't think Reynolds was trying to play any kind of "respecting the game" card.  I think he was just trying to make the point that Farrell had complete confidence that Lester was going to shut down the Cards at that point.  Unfortunately he's not too great at that talkin' business.
 

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JF's has four obvious decisions to make prior to Game 6:
 
1. Ross vs. Salty.  Has to be Ross at this point, right? 
 
2. Assuming Shane can go in RF (please), Nava or Gomes in left?  I'm assuming Nava given that Wacha is a righty, but I could see Farrell going back to his gut.
 
3. Line-up construction.  Assuming Shane plays, does he go back to the 2-hole?  Probably.  If so, the line-up is fairly obvious.  If not, it will be interesting to see what John does.
 
4. His plans for Felix.  Does he save him for a potentially long role in game 7 knowing that Peavy has been shaky?  (Hopefully, he doesn't need much, if anything from Felix, but he's going to have a plan going in, undoubtedly.)
 
I know there are more decisions he'll make in advance but those seem like the most pressing ones to me.
 

BCsMightyJoeYoung

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HriniakPosterChild said:
 
In Farrell's postgame comments, he said that he would not have PH for Lester even if there had been runners on 2nd and 3rd in a tie game.
 
Harold Reynolds was apoplectic on the MLB Network when he heard this, saying that was disrespecting the Cardinal offense. It was not clear if it was as bad as, or worse, than Victorino's attempting a 9-3 putout in game 1 when up by 7 runs!1!!1!!!  !
 
Harold Reynolds must have some issues he needs to work through about being disrespected, having played on so many under .500 Seattle teams during his career.
 
Aside from HR .. he has said enough inane nonsensical nonsense in the last two weeks as to make his "comments" beneath discussion.
 
On the possibility of Farrell's non PH move for Lester. .. on the one hand it speaks volumes about Farrell's fear of Breslow right now .. and the 7th inning in general. Remember, Farrell has commented many times this year on the importance of getting the starter into or through the 7th. I think Farrell's down to one and a half (Taz) trusted relievers right now. Add to that, Lester was still dealing when the decision had to be made.
 
Be that as it may, I beg to differ. That was the best - and quite possibly final - scoring chance of the whole game. And if they squander that you're looking at another 2-3 innings before another chance comes by. I know the top of the order was coming up in the 8th , but the backend of the Cardinal pen is very, very good. 
 
In any scenario, with runners in scoring position, in a tie game I think you have to PH. This isn't the Cardinal bench -- there are plenty of options.
 
But .. I can see the logic behind a non move. Thank God there was no choice to be made.
 

Rovin Romine

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MentalDisabldLst said:
I thought Farrell managed a marvelous game tonight, under the circumstances.
 
- Starting lineup, with Ross (obvious), Nava in RF (probably just as obvious) and Bogaerts higher up
- Sticking with Ross in the 7th
- Sticking with Lester into the 8th, but then pulling him for Koji when the odds of Koji getting the outs just started to creep a little higher than the odds of Lester getting the outs.  Lester was never in a jam, and the only time he was in a semi-jam (the 8th) they let him face Kozma just to reduce the wear on Koji.
- Not pulling Ortiz for Berry in the top of the 8th, which led to...
- The double-switch with Ortiz and Lester in the bottom of the 8th
- Sticking with Drew, who made some great plays look easy tonight (and one that wouldn't look easy no matter what, that incredible leaping grab of a liner), and also squared a ball right up and hit the sac fly in the 1st.
 
He never got an AB for Napoli (no great opportunities though) or Carp (probably just as well), but those are scant criticisms compared to the very-fair criticisms of game 3.
 
I think RR severely underrates him.  He's no Playoff Tito, but he'll outmanage most opposing managers on in-game tactics.
 
This was a well managed game.  I've no problem giving credit where credit's due.  
 
Now if he can again play the odds correctly for game 6. . .instead of going with sentimental favs, hunches, and "it worked in the regular season players."   
 
The bullpen is rested.  We start Lackey.  Offense is thin on the ground and Wacha is pitching.   Assuming we lose, we have to be kept in a position to have a credible chance of competing in game 7.   That said, Farrell should have a plan for a less than stellar start by Lackey (just in case, given the non-side session/inning thrown) but a plan that isn't simply "all hands on deck/we'll see what we have" for game 7.  Peavey shouldn't be relied on. 
 
So, for game 6:
 
Salty/Ross - probably Ross, but Lackey's caddy preferences should control.
Xander over WMB.
Drew over Xander (at SS).
OF is ideally Nava, Ells, Victorino.  
 

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I thought at the time that Farrell could have let Lester finish the 8th (not that I was strongly opposed to bringing in Koji there by any means), but pulling him may have been a decision made in part with a possible Game 7 in mind. It's conceivable that Lester could have ended up needing 10 or more additional pitches to get out of the inning.  Keeping those extra high-stress pitches off his arm could still pay dividends.  As it stands, he threw only 91 pitches and should be available to pitch 2 or possibly more innings on Thursday night if needed.  Koji was Koji and needed only 15 pitches to get the last 4 outs so he'll be ready to go in Game 6.  In retrospect, Farrell played that pretty much perfectly IMO.
 

smastroyin

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- The decision with Vic will be up to Vic, I think.  The thing is, yes you want him out there in the bigger RF...but it makes it that much more important that he's healthy enough to be out there.
 
- I think Ross/Salty is going to be heavily influenced by Lackey's opinion.
 
- Nava has not taken his opportunity very well.  I was hoping he would smoke Lynn.  He didn't, and he was worse against Wainwright last night.  I still prefer him to start over Gomes (also bad last night) but I can't say there is some slam dunk here.
 
- Unless his plans are to start Doubront in 7, you play game 6 to win.  Chances are it's going to be a close late inning game.  If Lackey can only give you 6, are you comfortable giving Breslow the responsibility for 3 outs?  I'm not.  The worst situation is going to be if the Sox are down 1 or 2 in the 7th...at that point you have to decide whether to use your bullets with the chance that you don't ever tie the game.  If the Sox are ahead I expect him to use the best pitchers he has available to him.
 
- As for the Lester PH, again, let's just remind ourselves that part of the calculus is that Matheny is allowed to use replacement pitchers.  Maybe he wouldn't have done so, after all he let Wainwright pitch to Ellsbury.  But the most likely thing is that you get Carp as the PH and Siegrist as the pitcher.  Carp is 0 for the postseason (a grand total of 8 PA, but he has not even reached a 3 ball count IIRC).  He did have a great PH season though, even though it hasn't worked out in the playoffs.  Regardless, he has a 50 point OBP split against LHP and Siegrist has allowed a 118/241/147 line to LHB.  I'm not sure the advantage of that matchup is worth pulling Lester from the game.  Although you could argue in the overall game management sense that forcing them to use Siegrist in the 7th (with the pitcher due up in the bottom of the inning) you take away their biggest weapon in neutralizing Ortiz (I know he hit the game 1 HR off of Siegrist, I would still rather he face Choate or one of the RHP).  Adding it up I still think you let Lester hit, given the fact that three games in a row the Sox have had problems getting outs 19-21.  As well, Lester was at 69 pitches at the time.  He was lifted, after recording another 5 outs, with 91 pitches.  If the game had remained tied he could likely have given you nine and saved the bullpen for extras.  
 

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smastroyin said:
The worst situation is going to be if the Sox are down 1 or 2 in the 7th...at that point you have to decide whether to use your bullets with the chance that you don't ever tie the game.  If the Sox are ahead I expect him to use the best pitchers he has available to him.
 
I would expect to see Workman in that specific situation, with Doubront saved for Game 7. If the Sox are up, yes, you go with the best pitchers, which at this point is probably Doubront and Taz bridging to Uehara.
 
Now, if it's a tie-- there's the real dilemma in my mind.
 

smastroyin

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I think Farrell will play a tie as if they are ahead, given that they are the home team.  Every half inning you keep them from scoring you have the chance to not have to worry about your next pitcher.  Farrell has been pretty by the book in this regard at home. 
 

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Assuming Lackey isn't Lester-esque tomorrow, my ideal bullpen usage would be 5 innings from Lackey, 2 from Doubie, Taz in the 8th and Koji to finish it off. Those are the guys I have the most confidence in. If Lackey gives you 6 then we only need 1 from Felix.
 

djhb20

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smastroyin said:
- As for the Lester PH, again, let's just remind ourselves that part of the calculus is that Matheny is allowed to use replacement pitchers.  Maybe he wouldn't have done so, after all he let Wainwright pitch to Ellsbury.  But the most likely thing is that you get Carp as the PH and Siegrist as the pitcher.  Carp is 0 for the postseason (a grand total of 8 PA, but he has not even reached a 3 ball count IIRC).  He did have a great PH season though, even though it hasn't worked out in the playoffs.  Regardless, he has a 50 point OBP split against LHP and Siegrist has allowed a 118/241/147 line to LHB.  I'm not sure the advantage of that matchup is worth pulling Lester from the game.  Although you could argue in the overall game management sense that forcing them to use Siegrist in the 7th (with the pitcher due up in the bottom of the inning) you take away their biggest weapon in neutralizing Ortiz (I know he hit the game 1 HR off of Siegrist, I would still rather he face Choate or one of the RHP).  Adding it up I still think you let Lester hit, given the fact that three games in a row the Sox have had problems getting outs 19-21.  As well, Lester was at 69 pitches at the time.  He was lifted, after recording another 5 outs, with 91 pitches.  If the game had remained tied he could likely have given you nine and saved the bullpen for extras.  
 
First, kudos again to Mr. Ross for making this a moot point.
 
Second, I think you can pinch hit Napoli there if it's tied. But it also depends on the out/base situation, I suppose, (i.e., do you need a hit or is a fly ball good enough, do you need to avoid the DP?)  I agree that removing Lester to pinch-hit Carp might have made my head explode not been the move I would've made. 
 
I think the lesson here (especially watching Matheny) to me has been that if you've got bullpen arms that are solid, you should NEVER risk leaving a starter in too long.  We've seen it over and again with the Sox lineup this postseason- that third time through the order, especially with the pitch counts rising (not as much of an issue for Lester last night) - the starters who blow through the lineup early in the game start to slip a bit and things start to happen.  Fortunately, the Sox have been able to continue against the relief pitching and finish those innings off.  But if I had Siegrist, Martinez, and Rosenthal plus some of those other arms out there and Lynn or Kelly pitching, I'd be lifting them for pinch hitters in the 4th or 5th inning (exactly the way Farrell did with Buck and Peavy). 
 
Push comes to shove, Farrell may have made some interesting choices this post-season, but so far he's managed circles around Mike Matheny.  Who, by the way, comes across as a huge prick in his post-game press conferences too.  I'm not a Matheny fan.
 

ivanvamp

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TheoShmeo said:
JF's has four obvious decisions to make prior to Game 6:
 
1. Ross vs. Salty.  Has to be Ross at this point, right? 
 
2. Assuming Shane can go in RF (please), Nava or Gomes in left?  I'm assuming Nava given that Wacha is a righty, but I could see Farrell going back to his gut.
 
3. Line-up construction.  Assuming Shane plays, does he go back to the 2-hole?  Probably.  If so, the line-up is fairly obvious.  If not, it will be interesting to see what John does.
 
4. His plans for Felix.  Does he save him for a potentially long role in game 7 knowing that Peavy has been shaky?  (Hopefully, he doesn't need much, if anything from Felix, but he's going to have a plan going in, undoubtedly.)
 
I know there are more decisions he'll make in advance but those seem like the most pressing ones to me.
 
1.  Yes, Ross.  Better defensively, and hitting better too.  At this point, IMO, a no-brainer.
 
2.  If he can play, yes, Victorino back in RF.  But I'd drop him down in the lineup.  Nonetheless, his glove is worth it out there.
 
3.  Lineup:  Ellsbury, Pedroia, Ortiz, Napoli, Nava, Bogaerts, Victorino, Drew, Ross
 
4.  All depends on the game situation.  It would be nice to be up 12-1 in the sixth so it's no concern, but I don't think anyone reasonably expects that.  So let's assume it's another low-scoring, close game, one run in either direction.  I think you have to be ready to use Doubront here in game 6.  If this was a normal week, game 7 would fall on Lester's bullpen day, and, since there are no more games to go after that, I would think that Lester could give the Sox 2-3 innings.  In other words, Lester takes Doubront's role as the bridge from Peavy to Taz/Ue.  So:  Peavy for four, Lester for two or three, Workman for one or two, then Taz and Uehara. Something like that.  And if Doubront gives them 2 in game 6, maybe he could come in in game 7 for one inning or at least as a LOOGY.  Obviously in an all-hands-on-deck scenario, pretty much everyone could come get a guy or two.
 

Merkle's Boner

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Now we know Merkle's true boner: Thinking Game 6 is tonight.
Shit. So what am I supposed to do tonight. I guess I can deal with the boner!
 

Rovin Romine

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smastroyin said:
I think Farrell will play a tie as if they are ahead, given that they are the home team.  Every half inning you keep them from scoring you have the chance to not have to worry about your next pitcher.  Farrell has been pretty by the book in this regard at home. 
 
Which pen is better and can last longer?  Clearly you have to play for the win.  
 

joe dokes

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ivanvamp said:
 
1.  Yes, Ross.  Better defensively, and hitting better too.  At this point, IMO, a no-brainer.
 
2.  If he can play, yes, Victorino back in RF.  But I'd drop him down in the lineup.  Nonetheless, his glove is worth it out there.
 
3.  Lineup:  Ellsbury, Pedroia, Ortiz, Napoli, Nava, Bogaerts, Victorino, Drew, Ross
 
4.  All depends on the game situation.  It would be nice to be up 12-1 in the sixth so it's no concern, but I don't think anyone reasonably expects that.  So let's assume it's another low-scoring, close game, one run in either direction.  I think you have to be ready to use Doubront here in game 6.  If this was a normal week, game 7 would fall on Lester's bullpen day, and, since there are no more games to go after that, I would think that Lester could give the Sox 2-3 innings.  In other words, Lester takes Doubront's role as the bridge from Peavy to Taz/Ue.  So:  Peavy for four, Lester for two or three, Workman for one or two, then Taz and Uehara. Something like that.  And if Doubront gives them 2 in game 6, maybe he could come in in game 7 for one inning or at least as a LOOGY.  Obviously in an all-hands-on-deck scenario, pretty much everyone could come get a guy or two.
 
2-3 innings? I wonder if Lester can be counted on. His back was tightening up as last night went on. I suppose they'll know more tomorrow.
 
Which pen is better and can last longer?
 
  
Wth only a slight modification, you've got yourself a Viagra ad.
 

Plympton91

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I wouldn't worry much about the starters not giving enough innings at this point.  Both Doubront and Workman have answered the bell enough to be relied upon.  I would have a plan of having Doubront available for 2 innings both Wednesday and Thursday; they are just so vulnerable to lefties that it would be great to have him in there, especially because Breslow lost his BABip glass slippers and has turned into a pumpkin.  Workman can also pitch 2 innings both days if necessary, and if you're ahead Uehara and Tazawa can get you 3 as well.   So, tonight you use any of those 4 for up to 2 innings each, and then adrenaline gets you through game 7.
 

JimBoSox9

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MentalDisabldLst said:
I thought Farrell managed a marvelous game tonight, under the circumstances.
 
- Starting lineup, with Ross (obvious), Nava in RF (probably just as obvious) and Bogaerts higher up
- Sticking with Ross in the 7th
- Sticking with Lester into the 8th, but then pulling him for Koji when the odds of Koji getting the outs just started to creep a little higher than the odds of Lester getting the outs.  Lester was never in a jam, and the only time he was in a semi-jam (the 8th) they let him face Kozma just to reduce the wear on Koji.
- Not pulling Ortiz for Berry in the top of the 8th, which led to...
- The double-switch with Ortiz and Lester in the bottom of the 8th
- Sticking with Drew, who made some great plays look easy tonight (and one that wouldn't look easy no matter what, that incredible leaping grab of a liner), and also squared a ball right up and hit the sac fly in the 1st.
 
He never got an AB for Napoli (no great opportunities though) or Carp (probably just as well), but those are scant criticisms compared to the very-fair criticisms of game 3.
 
I think RR severely underrates him.  He's no Playoff Tito, but he'll outmanage most opposing managers on in-game tactics.
 
tl;dr: it's amazing how a dominant SP, dominant closer, and hitters getting hits can make a guy look like Earl Weaver.
 
Which is not to dismiss the post, or to say he didn't manage a great game last night, or that he hasn't managed some poor games in the past week (game 3 says hi).  All true.  But the single biggest reason, by far, he managed a great game last night is that his players made it an easy game to manage.  If games 3 and 4 were like pitching a shutout against the 1999 Indians, this was like pitching a shutout against the 2013 Astros (warning: hyperbole alert).  There were only a couple buttons to press, they were clearly labeled, and none of them had faulty wiring.
 

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In all fairness to Farrell, I think when he said "tied 1-1" the assumption is at that point there are 2 outs. No way you hit for Lester there under the assumption that Carp or Napoli is going to get a base hit.
 

ivanvamp

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joe dokes said:
 
2-3 innings? I wonder if Lester can be counted on. His back was tightening up as last night went on. I suppose they'll know more tomorrow.
 
 
Yes, I suppose I'm assuming he's healthy and that the only potential issue is how many days it's been since he's pitched.  Obviously if his back is injured then he almost certainly doesn't pitch.
 

ricopetro6

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why not start Lackey game 7 instead of game 6?  He could very well pitch a very good game but lose to Wacha. Lackey vs Kelly I would take all day long.  Problem is who would start game 6 though...Peavy on 3 days rest, no thanks. Felix..he may be tired as well.  Just throwing it out there, would hate to waste a start by Lackey that would have beaten Kelly, but not Wacha.
 

smastroyin

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Alcohol&Overcalls said:
 
These two things aren't inextricably tied together - clearly, the Cardinals have a deeper stable of arms, but most are one-inning arms.  If it gets to the 'long men' the Cards could be in significant trouble.
 
Well, they haven't used Shelby Miller at all.  It would be a stretch, since he hasn't pitched much, but I'm guessing he could give them 3-4 innings if they really needed it.
 

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ricopetro6 said:
why not start Lackey game 7 instead of game 6?  He could very well pitch a very good game but lose to Wacha. Lackey vs Kelly I would take all day long.  Problem is who would start game 6 though...Peavy on 3 days rest, no thanks. Felix..he may be tired as well.  Just throwing it out there, would hate to waste a start by Lackey that would have beaten Kelly, but not Wacha.
 
You would rather go with a lesser option in game 6 of the World Series?  A game 6 with an opportunity to clinch a championship.
 

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ricopetro6 said:
why not start Lackey game 7 instead of game 6?  He could very well pitch a very good game but lose to Wacha. Lackey vs Kelly I would take all day long.  Problem is who would start game 6 though...Peavy on 3 days rest, no thanks. Felix..he may be tired as well.  Just throwing it out there, would hate to waste a start by Lackey that would have beaten Kelly, but not Wacha.
 
You can't concede the game to Wacha, period. If that isn't enough said, Lackey went toe-to-toe with Verlander in the LCS, and Wacha's about as overhyped as a 21-year-old rookie can be.
 

ricopetro6

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I'm just very worried about Peavy if it goes to a game 7.  Yes, everyone is saying we have Felix to back him up, but if you are pulling Peavy early, it probably means we are losing.  I would rather start Felix and ride him for as long as he is effective.
 

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Alcohol&Overcalls said:
 
These two things aren't inextricably tied together - clearly, the Cardinals have a deeper stable of arms, but most are one-inning arms.  If it gets to the 'long men' the Cards could be in significant trouble.
Martinez and Rosenthal are both starters converted to relief.  
 
Martinez pitched >3 outs in 7 of his 20 relief appearances this regular season (though only 2 out of 11 in the post season).  He only started in the minors.
Rosenthal went more than 3 outs 12 times during the regular season, and another 5 out of 16 post-season appearances (2 out of 9 in 2013).  
 
They can likely get 12 outs of them if really needed.  
 
For game 7, Lynn has a lot of recent (2011/2012) relief experience and relieved in the post-season previously - he could give multiple innings.  Or you could use Joe Kelly for game 6 in relief and Lynn in game 7 as a starter; he is young and spent much of the year as a reliever.  That ignores the unused Miller or Murijca, who probably should be ignored at this point.
 

koufax37

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Game 6 we are set up with one of our top pitchers and a rested bullpen.  If we can just remember to skip Breslow, I like how things line up.
 
Game 7 is always all hands on deck, but both Buchholz and Lester should be preparing and focusing on that game. Ice, massage, running, throwing today and tomorrow to get themselves both in the best position to handle that.  Doubront is likely a better choice than either unless he is used a lot in game 6, but our two aces better lace up the cleats and I likely put them ahead of Dempster even on short rest with various ailments.
 
It is also a position to extend Uehara as much as needed and circumstance dictates, and while I hope it is limited to 4-5 outs, I don't have an issue with it being 6-9 outs if the seventh inning situation calls for it, especially if he is not used in game 6 (which would be the likely scenario since playing game 7 means a game 6 loss).  I am not at all worried about the rested arms we can throw, I'm just hoping we don't get there at all, and if we do, each individual performs well.
 
So while actual performance (and offense and defense) remain to be seen, the actual body/rest/innings combination that we finish up the W.S. with is completely fine.
 

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ricopetro6 said:
I'm just very worried about Peavy if it goes to a game 7.  Yes, everyone is saying we have Felix to back him up, but if you are pulling Peavy early, it probably means we are losing.  I would rather start Felix and ride him for as long as he is effective.
 
Peavy got pulled when the Sox were down 2-0 after 4; his PHer made it 2-1.
Buchholz got pulled early and the Sox were down 1-0.
 
Are either of those situations that problematic?
 

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ricopetro6 said:
why not start Lackey game 7 instead of game 6?  He could very well pitch a very good game but lose to Wacha. Lackey vs Kelly I would take all day long.  Problem is who would start game 6 though...Peavy on 3 days rest, no thanks. Felix..he may be tired as well.  Just throwing it out there, would hate to waste a start by Lackey that would have beaten Kelly, but not Wacha.
 
I'm not sure this is the right message board for you.
 

DrewDawg

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ricopetro6 said:
why not start Lackey game 7 instead of game 6?  He could very well pitch a very good game but lose to Wacha. Lackey vs Kelly I would take all day long.  Problem is who would start game 6 though...Peavy on 3 days rest, no thanks. Felix..he may be tired as well.  Just throwing it out there, would hate to waste a start by Lackey that would have beaten Kelly, but not Wacha.
 
 
You should have obstructed this post.
 

Ferm Sheller

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ricopetro6 said:
why not start Lackey game 7 instead of game 6?  He could very well pitch a very good game but lose to Wacha. Lackey vs Kelly I would take all day long.  Problem is who would start game 6 though...Peavy on 3 days rest, no thanks. Felix..he may be tired as well.  Just throwing it out there, would hate to waste a start by Lackey that would have beaten Kelly, but not Wacha.
 
You play to win the game.
 

Rovin Romine

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m0ckduck said:
 
I would expect to see Workman in that specific situation, with Doubront saved for Game 7. If the Sox are up, yes, you go with the best pitchers, which at this point is probably Doubront and Taz bridging to Uehara.
 
Now, if it's a tie-- there's the real dilemma in my mind.
 
 
smastroyin said:
I think Farrell will play a tie as if they are ahead, given that they are the home team.  Every half inning you keep them from scoring you have the chance to not have to worry about your next pitcher.  Farrell has been pretty by the book in this regard at home. 
 
 
Rovin Romine said:
 
Which pen is better and can last longer?  Clearly you have to play for the win.  
 
 
Alcohol&Overcalls said:
 
These two things aren't inextricably tied together - clearly, the Cardinals have a deeper stable of arms, but most are one-inning arms.  If it gets to the 'long men' the Cards could be in significant trouble.
 
 
smastroyin said:
 
Well, they haven't used Shelby Miller at all.  It would be a stretch, since he hasn't pitched much, but I'm guessing he could give them 3-4 innings if they really needed it.
 
 
Joshv02 said:
Martinez and Rosenthal are both starters converted to relief.  
 
Martinez pitched >3 outs in 7 of his 20 relief appearances this regular season (though only 2 out of 11 in the post season).  He only started in the minors.
Rosenthal went more than 3 outs 12 times during the regular season, and another 5 out of 16 post-season appearances (2 out of 9 in 2013).  
 
They can likely get 12 outs of them if really needed.  
 
For game 7, Lynn has a lot of recent (2011/2012) relief experience and relieved in the post-season previously - he could give multiple innings.  Or you could use Joe Kelly for game 6 in relief and Lynn in game 7 as a starter; he is young and spent much of the year as a reliever.  That ignores the unused Miller or Murijca, who probably should be ignored at this point.
 
I just wanted to pull these together since Samastroyin's original excellent point got a bit muddled/lost.  Will Farrell play for a tie or for a win at home?  
 
Given the statement he allegedly made about this really being 3 short series, it may indicate he thinks he should play "conservatively" for the tie, needing only one of the two remaining Fenway games for ultimate victory. 
 
Given the Cardinal's pen, that's a bit frightening to me.  
 
To spell it out, I'm clearly hoping for a win tomorrow night.  But the only way we play game 7 is if there's a loss.  So, the Game 6 that gets us to that scenario could be:
1) Lackey goes short, we burn a lot of arms and lose.
2) Lackey goes long but we lose anyway.
Combined with the same for Wacha.  
 
Going with Peavey/tiredDubront and (at best) a rested Taz/Uehara seems to be a disadvantage against the Cards pen, especially in a Game 7 when they'll hold no one back.  Same goes for us, but our no ones don't exactly inspire a ton of confidence (Breslow, Morales, Dempster, Buc, short-Lester.)  
 

Alcohol&Overcalls

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smastroyin said:
 
Well, they haven't used Shelby Miller at all.  It would be a stretch, since he hasn't pitched much, but I'm guessing he could give them 3-4 innings if they really needed it.
 
Right, but at this point given his usage and fading down the stretch, I think the Sox long-game options (Dubront/Workman) are superior.
 
M

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I think our lineup vs their pen is a favorable matchup relative to their lineup vs our pen.  That advantage decreases substantially when you get out to the true soft underbelly we have (Morales, Dempster, arguably Breslow) but the front end of our pen is solid.  Maybe not as objectively solid as St. Louis's, but there's a big lineup strength differential you have to account for.
 
As much grief as people have given us for our lineup (Ortiz lovingly excepted), let's compare the Final 4 from this year (i.e. teams with >6 postseason games played):
 
LA Dodgers: .261 / .312 / .433 / .746
BOS Red Sox: .226 / .307 / .349 / .656
DET Tigers: .245 / .316 / .326 / .642
STL Cardinals: .213 / .281 / .318 / .599
 
As bad as our lineup has been, theirs has certainly been worse.  I don't know how to exclude the effects of pitchers batting in those numbers, so someone better than me can certainly give it a crack - but I feel pretty comfortable saying that our lineup is superior.  We scored 70 more runs than they did, with an OPS+ (which adjusts for DH differences) of 117 to 104.
 
My point is, we shouldn't assume that we're at a disadvantage the deeper a game gets into a bullpen.  I like our chances in extra innings against the non-Rosenthal, non-Martinez relievers in their pen.  The Mujica will be ringing in our ears!
 

shepard50

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Lose Remerswaal said:
 
Napoli said he was playing "no doubles" (on the line) defense, and figured why not hold the guy while he was at it.
 
 
Manager said Napoli and Koji did it on their own.
 
Napoli was on Intentional Talk tonight and said he was surprised at the throw.
 
Koji on his own.
 

Drek717

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smastroyin said:
 
Well, they haven't used Shelby Miller at all.  It would be a stretch, since he hasn't pitched much, but I'm guessing he could give them 3-4 innings if they really needed it.
Word here in St. Louis is that the organization thinks his late season fade was a precursor to having a dead arm and that short of a long extra innings game he's effectively shut down for the season.  If one of their starters got hurt he'd have gotten the nod as their next best option, but they've effectively shelved him for the season barring any unforeseen calamity.
 
It isn't too dissimilar from the Sox and Buchholz, except Clay is a mature enough pitcher to still get outs and as a veteran is given that opportunity.
 

geoduck no quahog

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So, Farrell's in an interesting spot tonight.

The biggest advantage the Red Sox have over the Cardinals right now is that the Cards have 2 elimination games and the Sox have only 1. Other than that, it's pretty even with Wacha having already beaten the Sox in Fenway and Kelly having beaten Peavy.

So the way tonight's game goes is critical. If St. Louis has to empty their tank tonight, they'll be at less than full strength tomorrow. If the Red Sox use all their bullets tonight, they're in the same boat.

So at what point does Farrell decide to GFIN versus keep something in reserve? Obviously no one can answer that question without seeing how the game flows.

The worst case scenario is a Red Sox loss that's close enough to force multiple and stressful relief appearances. I doubt that happens with Lackey on the mound. The converse is true for the Cards, except they'll have no choice put to pull out all the stops if things are close. They can't save anything for tomorrow.

This mostly relates to the use of Doubrant. I'd much rather be in Farrell's shoes right now than the alternative.
 

HriniakPosterChild

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geoduck no quahog said:
So, Farrell's in an interesting spot tonight.

The biggest advantage the Red Sox have over the Cardinals right now is that the Cards have 2 elimination games and the Sox have only 1. Other than that, it's pretty even with Wacha having already beaten the Sox in Fenway and Kelly having beaten Peavy.

So the way tonight's game goes is critical. If St. Louis has to empty their tank tonight, they'll be at less than full strength tomorrow. If the Red Sox use all their bullets tonight, they're in the same boat.

So at what point does Farrell decide to GFIN versus keep something in reserve? Obviously no one can answer that question without seeing how the game flows.

The worst case scenario is a Red Sox loss that's close enough to force multiple and stressful relief appearances. I doubt that happens with Lackey on the mound. The converse is true for the Cards, except they'll have no choice put to pull out all the stops if things are close. They can't save anything for tomorrow.

This mostly relates to the use of Doubrant. I'd much rather be in Farrell's shoes right now than the alternative.
 
I think it would be more fair to say that they beat themselves in Wacha's game.
 
 
Mike Matheny should be watching video of the Rays' elimination game to see a clinic how to manage an elimination game.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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geoduck no quahog said:
So, Farrell's in an interesting spot tonight.

The biggest advantage the Red Sox have over the Cardinals right now is that the Cards have 2 elimination games and the Sox have only 1. Other than that, it's pretty even with Wacha having already beaten the Sox in Fenway and Kelly having beaten Peavy.

So the way tonight's game goes is critical. If St. Louis has to empty their tank tonight, they'll be at less than full strength tomorrow. If the Red Sox use all their bullets tonight, they're in the same boat.

So at what point does Farrell decide to GFIN versus keep something in reserve? Obviously no one can answer that question without seeing how the game flows.

The worst case scenario is a Red Sox loss that's close enough to force multiple and stressful relief appearances. I doubt that happens with Lackey on the mound. The converse is true for the Cards, except they'll have no choice put to pull out all the stops if things are close. They can't save anything for tomorrow.

This mostly relates to the use of Doubrant. I'd much rather be in Farrell's shoes right now than the alternative.
 
I'd also rather be in Farrell's shoes, but it's a much easier call for Matheny, because he has to do everything possible to win tonight.  If it costs him tomorrow, he did the best he could, but if he leaves some bullets in the gun and loses tonight, he's going to have a hard time explaining.
 

kazuneko

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Drek717 said:
Word here in St. Louis is that the organization thinks his late season fade was a precursor to having a dead arm and that short of a long extra innings game he's effectively shut down for the season.  If one of their starters got hurt he'd have gotten the nod as their next best option, but they've effectively shelved him for the season barring any unforeseen calamity.
 
It isn't too dissimilar from the Sox and Buchholz, except Clay is a mature enough pitcher to still get outs and as a veteran is given that opportunity.
Except during his "late season fade" he was still getting batters out. Sure Miller was not as good in the second half of the season as he was in the first half (when he was one of the best pitchers in the league) but he still ended up with a 2.76 ERA for the month of September - far better than anyone in the Red Sox rotation other than Lester. That said, since his last regular season start (on September 25th) the man has pitched only one inning - and that was during the divisional series - so who knows how he would do if given a chance now. Still, its pretty amazing that the Cardinals have buried a guy who - if he was on the Sox- would arguably be the team's second best starter.
 

ivanvamp

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I think a lot depends on Lester's health.  Is his back okay?  If it is, then I think you get Doubront ready to come in tonight, and Lester plays Doubront's role tomorrow (if needed), assuming you can get 2 or 3 innings out of Lester.  Since there's no more baseball for six months (well, there's spring training I guess) after tomorrow night, I'd like to think that Lester, if his back is ok, could give you that.  So then it would be Peavy for 4, Lester for 2-3, then Workman/Taz/Uehara to finish it out.
 

terrisus

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I have to say I'm concerned about how John Lackey does today after having been put out there in relief in Game 4,
 
Yeah, I hear "it was his side day anyway," but, pitching in an actual game (especially a World Series game) is nothing like pitching on the side. And I just worry about how it impacts his outing today.
 
I hated it when Pedro did it in 2004 as well. Of course, in that case he did poorly in the relief outing, but was great in the World Series. 
Lackey did fine in his relief outing... Let's just hope his start today is as good.
 

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kazuneko said:
Except during his "late season fade" he was still getting batters out. Sure Miller was not as good in the second half of the season as he was in the first half (when he was one of the best pitchers in the league) but he still ended up with a 2.76 ERA for the month of September - far better than anyone in the Red Sox rotation other than Lester. That said, since his last regular season start (on September 25th) the man has pitched only one inning - and that was during the divisional series - so who knows how he would do if given a chance now. Still, its pretty amazing that the Cardinals have buried a guy who - if he was on the Sox- would arguably be the team's second best starter.
 
His peripheral stats were terrible in September (15K/13BB) and he was already 25 innings above his previous high by the end of the month.  If you're committing to him as a starter for the playoffs, then you're talking about potentially adding another 25-30 innings, posing a serious risk to one of your organization's most valuable assets.  Kelly and Wacha were both better than him in September and showing much less wear at that point (Wainwright and Lynn were gimmes).  Leaving Miller out of the rotation was a no brainer all things considered.
 

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HriniakPosterChild said:
 
I think it would be more fair to say that they beat themselves in Wacha's game.
 
 
Mike Matheny should be watching video of the Rays' elimination game to see a clinic how to manage an elimination game.
 
I agree on the first part.  After all he was taken out of the game trailing 2-1.
 
As for your second point, how many weapons does Matheny really have to do what Maddon did?  That game was unique. 
But he does need to have a quick hook with Wacha.
 

Drek717

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kazuneko said:
Except during his "late season fade" he was still getting batters out. Sure Miller was not as good in the second half of the season as he was in the first half (when he was one of the best pitchers in the league) but he still ended up with a 2.76 ERA for the month of September - far better than anyone in the Red Sox rotation other than Lester. That said, since his last regular season start (on September 25th) the man has pitched only one inning - and that was during the divisional series - so who knows how he would do if given a chance now. Still, its pretty amazing that the Cardinals have buried a guy who - if he was on the Sox- would arguably be the team's second best starter.
That's great and all but I'm pretty sure they're more concerned with what Shelby Miller will be for the next 10 years than the gap between what he and Lance Lynn can do out of the bullpen in a single appearance in October.  If it comes down to pitching him or Mujica I'd imagine they'd go Miller as it seems like Matheny has zero faith in Mujica at this point.  You could probably assume Maness is in a similar spot now too after getting crushed by Gomes.  He's still WAY down their list of options though as his velocity was down from the middle of the season over the last few months and tailed down further in his last few starts.
 
Also, he pitches in the NL Central, don't rush to crown the kid so damn quickly..  Last year Ryan Dempster pitched in that same division with a 2.25 ERA.  Is Ryan Dempster in the running for second best starter on the Sox?  Or maybe his ERA jump over 2 runs per nine in the AL East, and all those NL commentators claiming the Sox didn't have a true #1 starter on par with Wainright were actually just using heavily biased data thanks to league inequalities.
 
To recap in another way: 2012 Ryan Dempster > 2013 Shelby Miller.  2013 Ryan Dempster < 2013 Felix Doubront, each against like v. like competition (though to be fair, Dempster had to face the Cardinals while Miller got to skip on clearly the best lineup in the division in favor of the Cubs).  What changed?  A run through the meat grinder known as the AL and more specifically the AL East.
 
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