Let's talk about Michael Pineda

Sampo Gida · Apr 26, 2012

MakMan44 said:
The problem is that in the end it will end up costing the team money. Who's going to replace Pineda in the rotation? Andy, who cost the Yankees another 2.5$ mill to sign. Who's going to replace him next season? Another free agent signing. It's going to hurt them $$ wise it's just not as obvious.

On the bright side Noesi is doing TERRIBLE for the Mariners, so you take can solace in that.

He had 2 bad starts out of 4, one of them against the Rangers. He has had more good games than Buchholz. You can't judge a player by what he has done in April.

Pujols stinks too, and Pedroia in April of 2007 had people saying he would never be anything more than a AAAA player.

The good news is Schilling says Pineda can come back in 10 months throwing 5 mph faster like he did. :blink:

Toe Nash · Apr 27, 2012

jon abbey said:
Some rational and neutral perspective from Jay Jaffe at BP:

http://www.baseballp...articleid=16634

Ah yes, completely neutral:

As I pointed out when Fox Sports trumpeter Jon Paul Morosi gleefully proclaimed the score, the Mariners may actually be losing the deal given that they're squandering the service time of the trade's key asset in a season in which they're unlikely to contend. Keeping Montero down through April would have bought the Mariners another year before free agency, while keeping him down through June or July would have prevented him from becoming a Super Two.

So the Mariners doing what any team would do and playing the kid (and not pissing him off while also you know, getting some excitement going about their team) means they're losing the trade? they should have sent him down so they'd have an extra year before they had to pay him even though he's a human and pretty much proved he could hit MLB pitching last September?

The info on Pineda's potential for recovery is great, but Jaffe shows his colors in the final two paragraphs.

Doctor G · Apr 27, 2012

Recovery will probably include a substantial reworking of Pineda's mechanics. Perhaps the Yankees' emphasis on developing his change-up this spring had a hand in the labrum damage he experienced.

ThePrideofShiner · Apr 27, 2012

Toe Nash said:
Ah yes, completely neutral:
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So the Mariners doing what any team would do and playing the kid (and not pissing him off while also you know, getting some excitement going about their team) means they're losing the trade? they should have sent him down so they'd have an extra year before they had to pay him even though he's a human and pretty much proved he could hit MLB pitching last September?

The info on Pineda's potential for recovery is great, but Jaffe shows his colors in the final two paragraphs.

You really think the Mariners are being smart by using Montero when they could keep him an extra two years if they kept him in the minors until June? These are the Mariners, who based on history will let him go in free agency if he pans out so it makes sense to try and keep him under control as long as possible.

I don't think what he wrote was trying to be biased, I think he was just pointing out that the Mariners "winning" the trade is not guaranteed.

MakMan44 · Apr 27, 2012

ThePrideofShiner said:
You really think the Mariners are being smart by using Montero when they could keep him an extra two years if they kept him in the minors until June? These are the Mariners, who based on history will let him go in free agency if he pans out so it makes sense to try and keep him under control as long as possible.

Exactly and he is right. Delaying his free agency an extra year would've been smart and he wouldn't have had to been down long either.

Freddy Linn · Apr 27, 2012

ThePrideofShiner said:
You really think the Mariners are being smart by using Montero when they could keep him an extra two years if they kept him in the minors until June? These are the Mariners, who based on history will let him go in free agency if he pans out so it makes sense to try and keep him under control as long as possible.

The Mariners have had a top 10 payroll in 8 of the last 10 years. They are paying Ichiro $18M and Felix a little over $15M. They spend money, just not particularly wisely.

terrynever · Apr 27, 2012

Cashman calls the Pineda trade a "massive decision gone wrong right now. All scrutiny is fair."

http://espn.go.com/n...sion-gone-wrong

rembrat · Apr 27, 2012

"Right now, our hopes and dreams for this player are in jeopardy,'' Cashman said of Pineda.

Cashman is a master troll.

terrynever · Apr 27, 2012

jon abbey said:
Are you really going to cut his quote like that?

"This is a massive decision gone wrong right now,'' Cashman told ESPNNewYork.com on Friday. "So all scrutiny is fair.''

Yeah, I added it in before you posted.

Sampo Gida · Apr 27, 2012

Doctor G said:
Recovery will probably include a substantial reworking of Pineda's mechanics. Perhaps the Yankees' emphasis on developing his change-up this spring had a hand in the labrum damage he experienced.

My understanding is a changeup is thrown the same as a FB, and the only difference is the grip. Why would a changeup cause anymore stress on the shoulder than a FB?

jon abbey said:
Some rational and neutral perspective from Jay Jaffe at BP:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=16634

I think the neutrality of many blogs is more myth than real.

He has Clemens having labrum surgery but Clemens had a rotator cuff surgery (twice).

Also, even when enhanced MRI's will show a tear, you can not really tell the extent of the damage until the surgery. I remember Matt Clement having clean MRI's, but they did the surgery anyways since they knew something had to be wrong, and they found a rotator cuff tear and 2 labrum tears. There could be more damage than the MRI has picked up is what I am saying. So you really have to wait until the surgery before you start predicting recovery times and if he will be able to pitch anywhere close to how he pitched the 1st half of 2011.

That said, they have come a long way in labrum surgery. According to some figures I have seen seems he has a 33-66% chance of coming back close to where he was assuming he only has that 1 tear. Not quite as good as TJ Surgery which is 85-90%, but a lot better than the 3% figure that labrum surgery used to be.

ThePrideofShiner · Apr 27, 2012

Freddy Linn said:
The Mariners have had a top 10 payroll in 8 of the last 10 years. They are paying Ichiro $18M and Felix a little over $15M. They spend money, just not particularly wisely.

Fair point. I was just thinking about how they let so much talent leave back in the early '00s. You'd think they'd want to control Montero as long as possible, though they also need to generate some excitement in a lethargic fanbase and the way to do it is with one of your few offensive threats.

EvilEmpire · Apr 27, 2012

No idea how accurate this is, but something else from the link terrynever provided:

According to Dr. Chris Ahmad, the Yankees' team doctor who will assist in the surgery, and other sources who spoke to ESPNNewYork.com, the fact that Pineda's tear is in the anterior, or front, of the labrum increases his chances for a full recovery. A posterior labral tear often involves the rotator cuff, which Dr. Ahmad said was not affected in Pineda's case.
One source put Pineda's chances for a full recovery at 85 percent after a long period of rehabilitation, expected to be 12 months from the date of the surgery.

Alternate34 · Apr 28, 2012

Sampo Gida said:
My understanding is a changeup is thrown the same as a FB, and the only difference is the grip. Why would a changeup cause anymore stress on the shoulder than a FB?

I don't endorse the following but I can think of a few ways that a change up could mess things up.

First, while a change up should be thrown the same as a fastball, a lot of pitchers do not end up throwing the change up with the same arm action. That is part of the trick with developing a change up is learning not to change anything about your arm speed and angle when throwing it. The changed grip for a change up takes away the natural feel for throwing that the pitcher has. Sometimes a pitcher can react funny to it. I would suspect that this would more true of a pitcher trying to adopt a new change up.

Second, there are tons of different grips for change ups. The different variations can put more or less stress on your forearm as compared to the fastball. I would think it would limited to the forearm and elbow, but the human body does some weird things to compensate for change. If the forearm is stressed more, a pitcher might unconscious start changing something that would effect their shoulder.

All that said, I think he probably got unlucky. Either his natural delivery screwed him up or he lost the labrum lottery (relatively since he has survived this long to be a major league pitcher).

Doctor G · Apr 28, 2012

Alternate34 said:
I don't endorse the following but I can think of a few ways that a change up could mess things up.

First, while a change up should be thrown the same as a fastball, a lot of pitchers do not end up throwing the change up with the same arm action. That is part of the trick with developing a change up is learning not to change anything about your arm speed and angle when throwing it. The changed grip for a change up takes away the natural feel for throwing that the pitcher has. Sometimes a pitcher can react funny to it. I would suspect that this would more true of a pitcher trying to adopt a new change up.

Second, there are tons of different grips for change ups. The different variations can put more or less stress on your forearm as compared to the fastball. I would think it would limited to the forearm and elbow, but the human body does some weird things to compensate for change. If the forearm is stressed more, a pitcher might unconscious start changing something that would effect their shoulder.

All that said, I think he probably got unlucky. Either his natural delivery screwed him up or he lost the labrum lottery (relatively since he has survived this long to be a major league pitcher).

I was speculating that it was possible that Pineda was decelerating his arm thus putting stress on the shoulder. As I said much earlier in this thread, he does bear a resemblance in mechanics to Jose Contreras who uses a classic forkball as his change.

LondonSox · Apr 28, 2012

terrynever said:
Cashman calls the Pineda trade a "massive decision gone wrong right now. All scrutiny is fair."

http://espn.go.com/n...sion-gone-wrong

Errr did he really say
"Right now, our hopes and dreams for this player are in jeopardy," Cashman said of Pineda. "Hopefully, someday, our fans will get to see what we expected to see from him for many years to come."

Isn't this Jeter's pick up line??

terrynever · May 9, 2012

Sweeny Murti with a Pineda Q&A:

http://bleacherreport.com/tb/bgDs4?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=new-york-yankees

terrynever · May 2, 2013

jon abbey said:
"During a conference call this afternoon, Brian Cashman confirmed rehabbing right-hander Michael Pineda showed mid-90s velocity during an Extended Spring Training game today. “He pitched at 93 and was up to 95,” said the GM. “A good physical day.”"

http://riveraveblues.com/2013/05/cashman-confirms-pineda-hit-mid-90s-in-extended-spring-training-outing-86051/

That is great news. Yanks are going to be an interesting second-half team this year.

LondonSox · May 7, 2013

The yanks have a different team in the second half. The way they are hanging in must be genuine delight for management.

I have no idea how they do it but injuries don't seem to matter. I wouldn't bet on their best players being good for a yar but they don't need them to be. If they had bad starts or just played to their 3 year averages they would still be ahead of the jays lol

terrynever · Jun 9, 2013

jon abbey said:
Girardi just said he was told Pineda got up to 95 today.

That's good news. Will be interesting to see him work his way back to NY by next month. Sounds like they plan to be very careful with Pineda this season, knowing how tricky it is to come back from shoulder surgery.

terrynever · Jun 30, 2013

3 innings today against Binghamton, 4 hits, 4 runs, 4 earned, 4 walks, 4 Ks. gave up 2 homers among those 4 hits.

derekson · Jun 30, 2013

I suspect Pineda will have to learn a different way to pitch if he's sitting at 92-93 MPH on his fastball now. He's going to need to be more fine in locating the fastball and he's going to have to rely more on his off speed stuff. The Pineda that made the majors in 2011 was a guy with a big fastball that could cover for a lot of mistakes.

Sampo Gida · Jul 1, 2013

derekson said:
I suspect Pineda will have to learn a different way to pitch if he's sitting at 92-93 MPH on his fastball now. He's going to need to be more fine in locating the fastball and he's going to have to rely more on his off speed stuff. The Pineda that made the majors in 2011 was a guy with a big fastball that could cover for a lot of mistakes.

It just makes command and consistency that much more important, and its clear he does not have it yet, which is not surprising. I would take the pressure off and call this year a lost year and let him spend the rest of the year, or at least until September, building up arm strength and working on his command. Obviously, if he is lights out going forward you bring him back earlier, but for now keep expectations low and avoid rushing him back, and hope all is well next year,

Crazy Puppy · Aug 4, 2013

j44thor · Aug 5, 2013

Crazy Puppy said:

Rare is the trade that neither team wins. This has all the makings of being such a trade. Montero is on the verge of being out of baseball and Pineda may never be close to the pitcher he could have been.

mt8thsw9th · Aug 6, 2013

j44thor said:
Montero is on the verge of being out of baseball

A 23 year old with a career 98 OPS is on the verge of being out of baseball? You really think that even with the Biogenesis stuff that teams won't give him a look or ten before he's 30?

j44thor · Aug 6, 2013

mt8thsw9th said:
A 23 year old with a career 98 OPS is on the verge of being out of baseball? You really think that even with the Biogenesis stuff that teams won't give him a look or ten before he's 30?

Dave Cameron had this to say over at US Mariner:

Montero is no longer a catcher, his offensive potential is in question, and he’ll likely enter the 2014 season in Tacoma, trying to prove to everyone that he can actually hit well enough to justify a big league roster spot at some point. I’ve always been something of a Montero skeptic, so I don’t see his offensive rebound as a sure thing, and am honestly not sure whether Montero will actually ever play another game in Seattle. He was nowhere close to being a big leaguer before this suspension, and losing a couple of months of in-game development time isn’t going to help. And, of course, there’s the issue of whether or not his minor league track record was built with chemical assistance.
At this point, Jesus Montero is probably a 2015 prospect. If he goes to Triple-A next year and has a monster season, shows he can handle first base at a reasonable level or hits well enough to justify DH at-bats, he could factor into the team’s plans again at some point down the line. But his stock has probably fallen faster than anyone else in baseballs over the last few years. For the short term, you can basically forget about Jesus Montero.

http://www.ussmariner.com/2013/08/05/jesus-montero-suspended-50-games/

TheYaz67 · Aug 6, 2013

Certainly won't give Cashman an advantage going forward from an overall perception of his farm system, trying to convince other team's GM's that the Yankees top minor league prospects are not overvalued crap - I mean, Montero was thought to be one of their "top prospects" for a couple years at least - the fact that he can't even hold down a roster spot in Seattle has to give other GM's pause about the overall quality of NY prospects, if he was hyped as "one of the best"....

EvilEmpire · Aug 6, 2013

TheYaz67 said:
Certainly won't give Cashman an advantage going forward from an overall perception of his farm system, trying to convince other team's GM's that the Yankees top minor league prospects are not overvalued crap - I mean, Montero was thought to be one of their "top prospects" for a couple years at least - the fact that he can't even hold down a roster spot in Seattle has to give other GM's pause about the overall quality of NY prospects, if he was hyped as "one of the best"....

A top prospect doesn't pan out, so everyone is over-valued?

Sure, that makes sense.

Plympton91 · Aug 6, 2013

Question is: did Cashman know that Montero's success was based on steriods, and was that why he was so willing to move him for Pineda, who was clearly the consolation prize to Hernandez. Combine that move with half the suspensions being Yankees and it may be that anyone trading with Cashman wants a drug test as part of the physical.

Harry Hooper · Mar 2, 2014

j44thor said:
Rare is the trade that neither team wins. This has all the makings of being such a trade. Montero is on the verge of being out of baseball and Pineda may never be close to the pitcher he could have been.

Mariners on the record, with no equivocation:

“It’s up to him,” Mariners general manager Jack Zduriencik said. “I have zero expectations for Jesus Montero. Any expectations I had are gone.”...“I’m not counting on him,” Zduriencik said. “I’m not expecting anything. Whatever he does, he’s got to get our attention — that’s how I’m looking at it. We haven’t discarded him at all. But he’s got to prove it to us. We’ve got players here that want to be big-league players and want to be big-league players for a long time. In his case, he’s still got that to prove yet. And I don’t think he’s done that. He hasn’t taken that next step where he’s got everyone’s attention. He can, because the ability is there to do that.”

terrynever · Mar 2, 2014

If Pineda is throwing well and wins the no. 5 job in rotation, that's a big plus for Yanks. Puts Phelps in bullpen where they need a lot of help.
Hard to get excited in March but first signs so far are positive in several areas. We shall see.

Montero reported 40 pounds overweight. Impressive.

luckiestman · Mar 3, 2014

I hope Pineda's innings limit becomes a factor. Just need the guy to pitch.

terrynever · Mar 3, 2014

Banuelos is in a similar position to Pineda. Maybe he's on an innings limit, too. Should begin the season at Scranton as a starter. I like the options and depth at No. 5 starter.

terrynever · Apr 5, 2014

jon abbey said:
First start today, pretty impressive IMO:

Here is the breakdown, courtesy of Brooks Baseball:

31 fastballs, 17 strikes, two swings and misses, averaged 94.4 mph, topped out at 96.1 mph

33 sliders, 27 strikes (!), seven swings and misses, averaged 84.2 mph, topped out at 86.8 mph

18 cutters, 13 strikes, two swings and misses, averaged 94.3 mph, topped out at 96.1 mph

one changeup, one strike, 88.4 mph

He might be back up to 97 when the weather turns warm.

Sampo Gida · Apr 6, 2014

I think all questions have been answered about if Pineda can return to form. He can and has. Now the only question is how long it lasts

Hoplite · Apr 7, 2014

This might have something to do with the added movement on his pitches.

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