Let's talk 7th player

[The Napkin]

For awhile I (and probably most) thought Smith was a layup. But he hasn't been scoring and seems to maybe be pressing a little. Or he double crossed a gypsy or something. But still, as pointed out in the game today, he still doesn't have a - game in that stretch and his line has been producing.
 
I play like Carl has been a revelation since his move to C and is part of the best 3rd line in hockey. He's also been a big plus on the PP.
 
Johnson's play has allowed them to give Tuukka plenty of rest down the stretch. (17-3-1, 2.04, .926. Good for 25th in the league in wins, 12th in GAA (5 guys ahead of him have played 8 games or fewer so really 7th), 13th in save % (really 9th due to GP).
 
Miller has stepped in on the blue line and been steady as steady can be and has added a pretty good punch to the lineup as well.
 
I'm sure I'm forgetting someone and will add to the poll if I can figure out how if someone wants me to.
 
So who gets the big ugly truck?

 

[Eddie Jurak]

I voted Soderberg.  
 
A strong case could also be made for Smith or Miller, or maybe even Krug. 
 
Ochocinco is not even a candidate for me - I think he's mostly a "creation" of the Bruins defense.  If Rask had gone down with an injury early on, it's not even clear to me that Johnson would have won the #1 job.
 
If the fans vote it as a popularity contest (as they have often done in the past), then the likely winner is Jarome Iginla.

 

[timlinin8th]

Soderberg, Johnson and Miller all could lay a claim to it (Reilly's play lately has probably dropped him out) but I would give the edge to Miller just based on the decimation of the B's D corps. If he hadn't made the leap he has the D would be terribly thin, where CJ still has Tuukka doing the heavy lifting and Yeti is the rich getting richer. You could maybe make a case for Dougie as well, same reason as Miller.

 

[McDrew]

I'm voting miller.  He had precisely 0 expectations, and has earned time very much in the same way Krug did in last year's playoffs.  He came up, made the plays he needed to, and didn't make mistakes.  Part of that credit absolutely needs to go to providence, who trains guys to play the Bruins system, but he's come up, and against superior talent has more than held his own. 
 
I'd vote Johnson, simply because he has the best win % in the NHL (of anyone who has more than 10 decisions).  I don't remember him flat-stealing any games though, and he hasn't always faced the most challenging of opponents.  Smith isn't playing bad, but the leaps that Marchand/Bergeron took post olympics have made him look worse by comparison. 
 
This is a team more than any other team in the league.  And that's why I'm really confident that they're destined for a run this postseason. 

 

[TheRealness]

Soderberg. What he does for their offense, and the way he's been playing makes the Bruins so much more dynamic, especially in offense. Plus, he's a solid defensive player as well. Smith and Miller were unexepected contributors, but the Yeti had a lot of expectations and he's rising above those at the moment.

 

[BigMike]

For what it is worth the other realistic candidates seem like they would include Krug and Bartkowski.
 
It is easy to forget that Krug had 3 regular season games before this year,  but expectations were higher because of how he played in 15  postseason games. But he has been a force, much like Smith especially during the first half of the season when he was pretty spectacular 
 
And Bartkowski isn't technically a rookie, but he had only 20 NHL regular season entering this season +7 postseason games.   Bart doesn't get much respect in Bruins fandom, but he has played about 20 minutes a game as the #4 defenseman for more than half the season. And has posted very solid numbers

 

[Red Right Ankle]

Relative Corsi points towards Smith for this one.   Soderberg has been good, at +6.5% but at +11.9%, Smith vastly outpaces him and all other regular forwards except Bergeron and Lucic.  Smith also faced a significantly higher Quality of Competition than Soderberg, though he also had better Quality of Teammates, both as a result of being on Bergeron's line.  Not only that, but Smith is 22 years old and a real rookie, whereas Soderberg has been playing and playing well in the SEL for years, so my expectations for Soderberg were higher.  
 
Soderberg does have nearly as many points as Smith in 8 fewer games and is playing a more important position.  Given their current trends, it's very likely that he passes or equals Smith by the end of the year.  That said, I think Smith's performance earlier in the year and my relative expectations for the two gives him the edge.
 
Krug, as Mike mentions, has also been sterling and would be a strong  winner or #2.  To walk in as a rookie and be top 20 in the league in defenseman scoring is quite a feat.  His relative Corsi is the best on the team at 12%.  The drawback for Krug are that he has clearly been hidden by Claude with the highest O Zone start for regulars on the whole team (by 3%!) and his QoC is one of the lowest on the team.  He has performed really well, but he's been put in a much better position to do so than Smith.
 
Miller is well below the rest by the stats - negative Corsi percentage and negative relative Corsi  Except for the fact that expectations were so low for him, he'd have a tough time making a case.  
 
I tend to think that Johnson has played well but is helped hugely by the defense in front of him - his actual play has been good, but I don't think he's contributed as much value as Krug, Smith or Soderberg.

 

[Dalton Jones]

The Swede. He's been a revelation. Last year I thought he was slow as molasses and just not made for the NHL. This year, particularly in the second half, he's been immense on the third line. Strong and nifty, hard working, skilled.

 

[McDrew]

 

Krug, as Mike mentions, has also been sterling and would be a strong  winner or #2.  To walk in as a rookie and be top 20 in the league in defenseman scoring is quite a feat.  His relative Corsi is the best on the team at 12%.  The drawback for Krug are that he has clearly been hidden by Claude with the highest O Zone start for regulars on the whole team (by 3%!) and his QoC is one of the lowest on the team.  He has performed really well, but he's been put in a much better position to do so than Smith.
 

 
I'm totally Ok having one offensive-minded defenseman.  If you can shelter him by starting a guy like chara more on the D end, that lets chara spend more time on his strength, and lets Torey spend more time on his.  Krug has been awesome, and I agree he's probably a close second, but I still think that compared to expectations, Miller is the one who most exceeded his. 

 

[Red Right Ankle]

Don't get me wrong, I love Krug.  I just think that he has been given pretty close to optimum circumstances to succeed.  He has taken advantage of them and deserves credit, but it's sort of a "born on second, stole home on a wild pitch" situation.
 
Miller is the emotional choice for me - great story, great style of play, definitely exceeded expectations.  It's just hard to look at those stats and remember just how awesome Smith was at the beginning of the year, or Soderberg at the end of the year or Krug pretty much all year and say the differential between expectations and reality is greater for Miller than one of those guys even though they were somewhat more heralded prior to the season.

 

[Manzivino]

Voted Soderberg. My ballot would go Soderberg, Krug, Smith and I wouldn't have a problem with any of the three winning it.
 
TSYRRA lays out a good quantitative argument for Smith over Soderberg, and does mention that Smith has had better teammates, but just for perspective I want to point out that almost a quarter of Soderberg's ice time this year came playing out of position with a rookie at center (Spooner). From a qualitative standpoint moving Soderberg to center and the resulting blossoming of the third line into a truly dangerous weapon has been the key factor in transforming the Bruins from a contender into the clear cut favorite to win the East and arguably the Cup. Soderberg is the driving force of his line's success; Smith is clearly the third cog behind Bergeron and Marchand and with the latter two clicking I think you could throw any Bruin on their right wing and have a dominant line. My expectations for both were pretty similar (could Soderberg adapt his game to the smaller ice vs could Smith translate his AHL success to the speed of the NHL game), and given the context and Smith's production tailing off after he legitimately carried the team for a stretch gives Soderberg the edge for me.
 
I'd put Krug over Smith as well. Yes he's sheltered defensively 5 on 5, but he has also been the primary reason that the PP is a top-5 unit after years of being the team's one weakness. He leads the team in PPP, 5 on 4 Corsi, and 5 on 4 Relative Corsi; of skaters league wide with more than half the season played (>40 games) Krug is 25th in Corsi and Relative Corsi 5 on 4. I expected him to tail off from his production in the playoffs, and although it's weighted more toward assists his production has actually gone up this season vs his playoff run (6 points in 15 games would translate into 33 points over a full season, Krug's already at 37 points in 72 games).
 
Edit: duplicate sentence

 

[Eddie Jurak]

Lots of good arguments, but I think Manzivino nails it on why the award should go to Soderberg.  
 
Last season, the team's Achilles heel was depth at forward.  This season, Soderberg's emergence has given them the best three-line attack they have had since the 2011 playoffs, possibly even better than that.

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

I mentioned some of this in yesterday's game thread but I'll reiterate here as it applies to exceeded expectations. I thought Soderberg could be a pretty good 3rd liner, better offensively than Peverley but maybe worse defensively. I thought a strong statistical season would be more goal-heavy but erratic and streaky based on the whims of centerman Kelly.
 
I had no expectations that he would be such a great playmaker and fit so well into how the Bruins play. Even though he's not a big hitter, he uses his body as well as anyone and plays a very heavy game whether he's cycling with the puck or setting a screen in front of the net. He's very creative but has no problem making the smart, easy play to maintain possession and find space in the offensive zone. Even if you had told me before the season that he would eventually be moved to his natural position, I doubt that I would have expected him to personally elevate the line into what it has become. Carl gets my vote.
 
Krug has exceeded expectations but fulfilled all the hopes that felt reasonable based on last year's small sample. There was an expectation that a full season of Krug (and Hamilton) running the PP instead of Chara would finally give us some better results and bring that unit closer to the team's ridiculous 5 on 5 play. So I'm happy about that but not overly shocked.

 

[Red Right Ankle]

Voted Soderberg. My ballot would go Soderberg, Krug, Smith and I wouldn't have a problem with any of the three winning it.
 
TSYRRA lays out a good quantitative argument for Smith over Soderberg, and does mention that Smith has had better teammates, but just for perspective I want to point out that almost a quarter of Soderberg's ice time this year came playing out of position with a rookie at center (Spooner). From a qualitative standpoint moving Soderberg to center and the resulting blossoming of the third line into a truly dangerous weapon has been the key factor in transforming the Bruins from a contender into the clear cut favorite to win the East and arguably the Cup. Soderberg is the driving force of his line's success; Smith is clearly the third cog behind Bergeron and Marchand and with the latter two clicking I think you could throw any Bruin on their right wing and have a dominant line. My expectations for both were pretty similar (could Soderberg adapt his game to the smaller ice vs could Smith translate his AHL success to the speed of the NHL game), and given the context and Smith's production tailing off after he legitimately carried the team for a stretch gives Soderberg the edge for me.
 
I'd put Krug over Smith as well. Yes he's sheltered defensively 5 on 5, but he has also been the primary reason that the PP is a top-5 unit after years of being the team's one weakness. He leads the team in PPP, 5 on 4 Corsi, and 5 on 4 Relative Corsi; of skaters league wide with more than half the season played (>40 games) Krug is 25th in Corsi and Relative Corsi 5 on 4. I expected him to tail off from his production in the playoffs, and although it's weighted more toward assists his production has actually gone up this season vs his playoff run (6 points in 15 games would translate into 33 points over a full season, Krug's already at 37 points in 72 games).
 
Edit: duplicate sentence

You know, I really should have done the math on QoC vs. Qot for Soderberg and Smith.  While Smith has faced about a 5.5% tougher QoC, his QoT is almost 7% higher than Soderberg.  So while he has faced tougher competition, Bergy and Marchand are still much better linemates than Kelly and Spooner/Eriksson have been this year - though that's mostly on Spooner as Eriksson has been one of the best forwards on the team when not injured or recovering from injury.
 
I still think there's some recency bias with the Soderberg choice as he's been so good since the break and I did have higher expectations for a full grown man who'dd played very well in the SEL than for a 22 year old who, while talented, had only played 3 NHL and 45 AHL games before this.  But now we are talking about unquantifiable stuff since we didn't have a "predict how many points or how good relative to his teammates each Bruin will be" thread.

 

[TheRealness]

You know, I really should have done the math on QoC vs. Qot for Soderberg and Smith.  While Smith has faced about a 5.5% tougher QoC, his QoT is almost 7% higher than Soderberg.  So while he has faced tougher competition, Bergy and Marchand are still much better linemates than Kelly and Spooner/Eriksson have been this year - though that's mostly on Spooner as Eriksson has been one of the best forwards on the team when not injured or recovering from injury.
 
I still think there's some recency bias with the Soderberg choice as he's been so good since the break and I did have higher expectations for a full grown man who'dd played very well in the SEL than for a 22 year old who, while talented, had only played 3 NHL and 45 AHL games before this.  But now we are talking about unquantifiable stuff since we didn't have a "predict how many points or how good relative to his teammates each Bruin will be" thread.

 
I also think he gets it because of all of the cult like stuff about Carl. The "Yeti" thing, the fight to get him over here last year, so-good-to-see-you-Carl, and the mystery and enigma that is the one-eyed-Swede. Add in your salient point about recency bias with how dominant he has been lately, and I think he's very likely to get it. 
 
The arguments for Smith are very valid, however. The advanced metrics certainly back up your points. 

 

[smastroyin]

I think Smith and Yeti are the two best candidates.  Smiths production has assuaged a bit of the pain of the Seguin deal given Loui's concussion problems.  Yeti of course has all the stories that made him mythical before he arrived, and has been a revelation at C.  I think I would lean toward Yeti and I think the voters will too (what have you done for me lately?)

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

I went with Miller because he has been one of their steadiest Defensemen since he came up, and no one had ever even heard of him before the season.  Soderberg would be an easy pick, but we've all known he was gonna be AWESOME when we traded Hannu for him.  It just took time for him to get here.
 
I could easily have voted for Johnson, with Krug and Bart not far behind.

 

[veritas]

I voted for Soderberg based on my initial instinct, but after thinking about it more I'd probably switch it to Krug or Smith. All 3 have a solid argument, as does Miller.
 
Krug is a game changer, for better and worse. But he's 4th in scoring among NHL rookies, and 1st among defensemen by a mile. His overall game has some warts, but when utilized intelligently he's a huge weapon and he's been one of the major reasons their PP has been better. He was an undrafted FA who was still in college 2 years ago. People had unrealistic expectations for him based on a couple flashes of brilliance in the playoffs last season, and I think he's exceeded those expectations. So that's why I wish I voted for him.
 
Smith has been a very good 2 way player, playing in the top 6 all season and never looking out of place. And the advanced stats seem to suggest he's not just holding his own on that line, he's contributing to their success. In the preseason everyone was wondering wether him, Caron, or Matt Fraser would squeak onto the team as the 3rd line RW. No one saw this coming.

 

[InstantKarmma]

My vote is for Miller.

When Seidenberg went down for the season, I don't think I was alone when I wondered how we were going to fill that hole on defense. Miller stepped up in a huge way.

Smith, Krug, and Yeti are all in the conversation, but Miller should win.

 

[durandal1707]

As the award is for the player who has "performed above and beyond expectations", I went with Smith.

Krug did himself a bit of a disservice with his great playoff performance last year.  I expected him to be the Bruins' PP quarterback coming into this season (I drafted him for my fantasy team), and he's done a fantastic job at it.  Now if he was a defensive stud as well it'd be a different story, but his offensive performance isn't way beyond expectations.

I think the expectations for Söderberg come down to how much one weighed his limited appearance last season.  We knew he was an excellent player in the SEL, but I figured it was going to take some time for him to adjust to the North American game so I didn't pay much mind to his lackluster debut last year.  I also don't think it's a coincidence that Yeti's emergence happened around the same time that Eriksson was getting healthy.  That said, I think Söderberg's fantastic, but I see his season more as living up to the hype that he had before coming over to the NHL than being a genuine surprise.

Miller has been a pleasant surprise, but I see him as a McQuaid replacement (i.e. a third D-pairing type) and thus Smith, who's holding a top-6 forward position, has more value to the team.

So it really comes down to Reilly Smith.  Despite his recent scoring drought, he's still 5th on the Bruins in total points.  He's 7th in total TOI for the 3rd best powerplay in the league.  And more importantly he's allowed the enormous luxury of having Loui Eriksson as a third line player and to develop great chemistry with Söderberg. That's damn surprising given that my expectations were that he was going to be battling Jordan Caron and Nick Johnson for a roster spot all season.
performed above and beyond expectations

 

[TSC]

Chad Johnson is not getting nearly enough love here..

 

[PedroSpecialK]

He'd have more votes if he could move
 
 
 

 
 
 
 
poll to poll

 

[The Napkin]

Ochocinco is not even a candidate for me - I think he's mostly a "creation" of the Bruins defense.  If Rask had gone down with an injury early on, it's not even clear to me that Johnson would have won the #1 job.

 
You know, we hear this all the time. I don't have the time to compile and compare strength of opponent right now but still. The numbers are pretty freaking close. Is Rask just a "creation" of the Bruins defense?
 

 

[kenneycb]

 
You know, we hear this all the time. I don't have the time to compile and compare strength of opponent right now but still. The numbers are pretty freaking close. Is Rask just a "creation" of the Bruins defense?
 

Honestly I wouldn't be surprised if the B's defense at least enhances his value.  He is certainly a positionally sound goalie with a lot of athletic ability to make some impressive saves but, I mean, this is a system that made Alex Auld look competent.  I don't think it's all on the system but I imagine it has some to do with his success.  Kind of a chicken and egg argument, though.

 

[Red Right Ankle]

 
You know, we hear this all the time. I don't have the time to compile and compare strength of opponent right now but still. The numbers are pretty freaking close. Is Rask just a "creation" of the Bruins defense?
 

I think we would definitely need to compile more numbers. CJ was not this good prior to this year ever, the eye test says he is competent bit not exceptional. I think if you went deeper into the QoC data you would find that Rask has faced more difficult opponents this year and in years previous and that CJ's numbers are an outlier partly attributable to that. That said, it is certainly possible that CJ has taken a step this year and that will continue going forward. The Bs have shown themselves to be pretty good at goalie scouting, see, e.g. Khudobin. Them again, it could all be luck and team D, see, e.g. Alex Auld.

 

[kenneycb]

Yet nothing could have saved Manny Fernandez's career.