I don't think 2-3 years is unreasonable to expect more improvement than what we have seen.
I’m not sure “rebuilding” is the correct word. The Broncos aren’t taking a long time to rebuild; they’re failing to improve. Much like the Jets or Lions.
The timeline for rebuilding is wholly dependent on the Quarterback. In the absence of a top 10 QB then rebuilding can take decades, with the occasional surge for one or two years. You say above that the Eagles took 5 years to rebuild but in 2018 they won a playoff game and only lost the second because a ball bounced off the normally-surehanded Alshon Jeffrey's hands in the final drive on 4th and not long. They also went to the playoffs in 2021 but lost in the first round.
Right. And the Patriots are not rebuilding in the traditional sense where you don't care about making the playoffs for a couple years and trade off anyone of value for picks. Even in a year with literally no NFL-caliber QB they signed Cam Newton so they could win 7 games instead of 4.
Obligatory reminder that Mac has outperformed the QB's selected below him, and lacked the capital to move up to pick Fields. Unclear at this time that punting a QB selection forward another year or hoping for an answer via free agency would change the rebuild timeline all that much.
Career Performance - QBs drafted in the 2021 draft
Obligatory reminder that they had a mid-level pick because they won a bunch of games with Cam Newton running a gimmick offense when that team would never have a prayer in the playoffs if they had snuck in. This is how BB is, he's never going to really tank, but most teams would have looked at that roster, with not much cap space, and just gone with Cody Kessler or someone for a year while you tried to find talented pieces.
"Outperforming the Qbs selected below him" is a nonsense stat put together to make people feel good about themselves. Having a QB who is just good enough to get you to the playoffs and not good enough to win there is NFL hell, and that is his ceiling. The Patriots played the QB selection game badly after having Tom Brady fall into their laps in round 6 and then staying for 20 years.
If Bill Belichick were to call Doug Pederson and offer Jones straight up for Lawrence Doug would either try to get Bill some assistance thinking he was having a stroke, or he would put him on speaker and groupchat in Andy Reid, Harbaugh and the rest of the Reid coaching tree for a laugh.
They really didn't have a choice on Mac though. All the other top QBs in that draft were taken before him. I would have preferred Fields but he was long gone at 15.
Agreed. But my point is still valid. Mac *HAS* outperformed every other QB in his class so far.
Drafting Garoppolo in the middle rounds was a fine succession plan. If the GM's strategy had a fault, it was going all in on the Brady years in 2018 (last I checked it worked out OK) and 2019 (fell short) as opposed to investing resources in a backup. But every single GM and prospective GM in the league would take that trade off 13 months out of the year; flags fly forever. The team also had 2 draft picks stolen from them, which didn't help.
What's fascinating about the Pats' situation is the reality of Tom Brady. I mean...
Agreed. But over the course of their (admittedly short) careers, he has. Last year did happen.
Trevor Lawrence has had a better season this year than Mac. Fields has as well. But neither were available when the Pats drafted, which some here seem to forget.
Is the “QB selection game” really anything more than sheer luck (and timing - the Pats did draft at least one good QB, but the timing was such that they would never have been able to keep him until Brady moved on). Maybe I’m forgetting something but I can’t think of a team in the modern NFL that has shown a consistent ability to evaluate QB prospects better than others.
All this is true. I was just pointing out that so far, 12 games into all their second seasons, Mac has had a better career than any other QB in his draft class, including the four that were taken ahead of him. It's just factually true.
I supposed they could have offered the deal Chicago did. On the other had a 7-9 team that had a bunch of players retire or decline rapidly shouldn't be giving up assets to move up a few spots in the draft IMO. They need all the picks they possibly can to fill those holes.
Passing on Lamar is one of the ways the team decided to go all in on 2018 and 2019. They had 2 first round picks and selected two areas of need (left tackle and running back). Now, Wynn didn't help them that season, but there was no way to predict that he would pop his Achilles. As for Michel, as much as people want to downgrade his performance after the fact, the reality is that he did contribute some important snaps in the team's Super Bowl victory.
Right. People would have howled had they spent a 1st round pick on a QB when Brady was still playing at an all-pro level for them at that point. Long-term it may have made sense, but in the moment it wouldn't have.
If you really want to second-guess, they could have taken Hurts with their second-round pick in 2020 that they took Dugger with. Dugger’s turned into a pretty good player, but Hurts could have basically given them what Cam did in 2020, and we’ve seen how he’s progressed since then. And had they taken Hurts, they then could have used pick 15 (or whatever it ended up being) in 2021 on some other position, perhaps OL.
Going back to Yammer's point about making in the playoffs and losing, Lamar has been fantastic in the regular season but only 1-3 in the playoffs with terrible numbers.
But Bill screwed up: the one QB drafted after Cassel threw for almost twice as many career yards as Matt.
Yes, absolutely justified. Didn't really mean to suggest otherwise. I should have added more context.
Absolutely, 100%. The key was that the Pats didn't trade up and have to invest additional draft capital to get him. When you trade up and give up future first rounders, that's when you get screwed if they bust. Worst case outcome here from Mac is they get a few years of meh QB play at small $. Hardly some sort of franchise-crippling move, even if it does mean that they won't compete for a championship during that window.
I largely agree with this take on "rebuilding". The NFL ain't college, where a coach typically needs the 3-4 years of a recruiting cycle to really get his program fully in place. I think it's reasonable for a team to bottom out in year 1 of a "rebuild", by design. But from there forward we should see visible progress and some degree of on-field results.
Exactly. I think the only scenario where they should not have picked Mac at 15 is if BB was absolutely sure Mac was not going to pan out. And obviously had that been the case they wouldn't have picked him.
I totally agree with this. I wanted them to trade up for Fields because I thought he'd flourish in a stable system like the Patriots with a great OC. I fully recognize now, though, that trading up probably wasn't the best idea and seeing everything that has happened since in this organization, maybe I was wrong on the "stable system" as well.
Agree rebuilding is really hard but, like Ralph and Slim stated, it gets at the question of what's actually being rebuilt. I'm not sure the talent is much worse that what BB typically brings to bear, outside Brady of course. The D is ok but could use a CB and LB, like almost every team every every year. On offense, O-line aside, this is what Bill wanted: decent enough talent at every skill position that coaching could theoretically exploit whatever a D's weakness might be.
I wouldn’t say the Ravens / Titans are in hell but also wouldn’t be really be overly excited to be fans of them. They both have 1 outstanding offensive talent and nothing else on that side of the ball. That would frustrating as hell and feel like a complete waste of a great player. Both will probably be 1 and done in playoffs and what’s the future there? Especially with Burrow, Allen and Mahomes over the next decade. The AFC is going to be a tractor pull and feel like it’s going to be very hard to break through in the coming years.
Do you know what makes a rebuild easier, sucking hard? The Jets had 17 wins from 2018-2021. They have had chances to draft players the Pats can only dream about, and, of course, in Jetsian-fashion they screwed the high QB picks in 2018 and 2021..
Just curious for those in the know.... Fields' throwing mechanics looked awful coming out of college. Didn't mean he couldn't pass the ball, but we all saw photos and video of his throwing motion and holy god it was ugly. So what changed?
I just don’t think that the Patriots needed to draft a QB in 2021 if Mac Jones was the only choice. Drop back, collect more assets and hold off for 2022, or a FA, or whatever.
Yes, for the record, I am not saying Mac is a bust. I have my doubts about him as a player, but I'm not there yet and as you note there are other factors at play. What I was saying was that if he is a bust that's a perfectly reasonable outcome for a guy drafted at 15 and not evidence that the pick was blown or whatever.
