Let's discuss Papi's HoF chances

MakMan44

stole corsi's dream
SoSH Member
Aug 22, 2009
19,363
We've always known that he's a borderline candidate, so I'm wondering if getting to that nice round number pushes him over the top. The rest of his numbers still look borderline, but between his PS history and getting to 500 HRs, I still think he's gets voted into the HOF.
 

Average Reds

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 24, 2007
35,330
Southwestern CT
A lock?  No.  But I'd bet that he does get in over time.
 
The wild card here is PEDs.  The case against Ortiz is not a strong one, but in the minds of many, he's a user and that will cost him a lot of votes.  Whether he can overcome that is something we'll see about.
 

grimshaw

Member
SoSH Member
May 16, 2007
4,220
Portland
I think he'll have the benefit of not being towards the end of his career during the PED era, and writers possibly softening up on old guys that could still hit.
He overlapped a little with some guys like Sosa, McGwire,  Palmeiro and Sheffy who may not ever get in despite cracking 500.  He doesn't have as much of a PED stench, aside from some vocal NYY fans.
 
It will be a crime if he gets in before Edgar, but I think he will.
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
12,678
Yeah, he has clearly survived the PED era with his power in tact, and even delivered Boston a World Series victory in 2013 with that ridiculous hitting display. So unlike a lot of the other PED All Stars I think that after next year he's a lock.
 

VTSox

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 27, 2006
293
My mind was made up about the time Torii Hunter hit the dirt in the bullpen.  
 
Not that my vote counts.
 

jscola85

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
1,305
He's not a lock, but I also don't think he's going to retire this year, so another 1-2 years to pad the counting stats would go a long way.  He's at 495 HRs, 2276 hits, 1600 RBI, 1300 R.  If he manages to get to 525+ HRs and 2500+ hits, that would be tough to deny.
 

RG33

Certain Class of Poster
SoSH Member
Nov 28, 2005
7,199
CA
1.) .284 avg. .378 OBP .545 SLG 139 OPS+ 495 HR 1613 RBI 9 All Star games 5 Top 5 MVP finishes

2.) .280 avg. .383 OBP .546 SLG 138 OPS+ 473 HR 1512 RBI 2 All Star games 2 Top 5 MVP finishes

3.) .277 avg. .399 OBP .516 SLG 139 OPS+ 440 HR 1441 RBI 5 All Star games, 3 Top 5 MVP finishes, 1 MVP

4.) .284 avg. .377 OBP .509 SLG 134 OPS+ 493 HR 1550 RBI 5 All Star games, 1 Top 5 MVP finishes

5.) .297 avg. .408 OBP .540 SLG 149 OPS+ 449 HR 1529 RBI 4 All Star games, 3 Top 5 MVP finishes, 1 MVP

Just a fun exercise from Baseball Reference, based on their "similar players" section at the bottom. These are currently 4 players and Papi, none of which are in the HofF.

3 of the 10 "similar players" are in the HofF (McCovey, Frank Thomas, Stargell), with 2 others (Bagwell and Pujols) likely to get in at some point.

The above players include David Ortiz(1), Carlos Delgado(2), Jason Giambi(3), Fred McGriff(4), and Jeff Bagwell(5). All were pretty similar in terms of games played, aside from McGriff who had 200+ games more than all of the others.

I think Papi is a "bubble +" type of guy due to the DH component and the aura of PED use. I think the postseason performance should eventually put him over the top, but I don't think he will be a first ballot, nor really even a first 2-3 years kind of inductee.

He would get my objective vote.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/ortizda01.shtml

EDIT: identifying players
 

pedro1918

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 5, 2004
5,139
Map Ref. 41°N 93°W
grimshaw said:
I think he'll have the benefit of not being towards the end of his career during the PED era, and writers possibly softening up on old guys that could still hit.
He overlapped a little with some guys like Sosa, McGwire,  Palmeiro and Sheffy who may not ever get in despite cracking 500.  He doesn't have as much of a PED stench, aside from some vocal NYY fans.
 
It will be a crime if he gets in before Edgar, but I think he will.
 
It is not limited to NYY fans.  He gets it in most ballparks, especially the AL East.
 
I think he's a HoFer, but the number of people/writers who consider him a PEDer will create a bump in his path to Cooperstown.  I'm not sure if the bump is large enough to keep him put or not.  I hope not.
 

Ale Xander

Hamilton
SoSH Member
Oct 31, 2013
72,432
RGREELEY33 said:
1.) .284 avg. .378 OBP .545 SLG 139 OPS+ 495 HR 1613 RBI 9 All Star games 5 Top 5 MVP finishes

2.) .280 avg. .383 OBP .546 SLG 138 OPS+ 473 HR 1512 RBI 2 All Star games 2 Top 5 MVP finishes

3.) .277 avg. .399 OBP .516 SLG 139 OPS+ 440 HR 1441 RBI 5 All Star games, 3 Top 5 MVP finishes, 1 MVP

4.) .284 avg. .377 OBP .509 SLG 134 OPS+ 493 HR 1550 RBI 5 All Star games, 1 Top 5 MVP finishes

5.) .297 avg. .408 OBP .540 SLG 149 OPS+ 449 HR 1529 RBI 4 All Star games, 3 Top 5 MVP finishes, 1 MVP

Just a fun exercise from Baseball Reference, based on their "similar players" section at the bottom. These are currently 4 players and Papi, none of which are in the HofF.

3 of the 10 "similar players" are in the HofF (McCovey, Frank Thomas, Stargell), with 2 others (Bagwell and Pujols) likely to get in at some point.

The above players include David Ortiz(1), Carlos Delgado(2), Jason Giambi(3), Fred McGriff(4), and Jeff Bagwell(5). All were pretty similar in terms of games played, aside from McGriff who had 200+ games more than all of the others.

I think Papi is a "bubble +" type of guy due to the DH component and the aura of PED use. I think the postseason performance should eventually put him over the top, but I don't think he will be a first ballot, nor really even a first 2-3 years kind of inductee.

He would get my objective vote.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/ortizda01.shtml

EDIT: identifying players
"Similar" aside from the fact that Ortiz has twice as many ASG, twice as many MVP top 5, 3 WS rings, including one where he hit .688
 
Ortiz is a lock, now, at 495.
 

pokey_reese

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 25, 2008
16,247
Boston, MA
The longer that he can play, delaying his time to the ballot, and thereby putting as much temporal distance between himself and the steroid era, the better. As much as we don't like to admit it, I've moved around the country a lot and everywhere I've lived other than Boston, people bring up that 2003 test and NYTimes list nonsense. While he isn't Bonds, there is a greater taint on Ortiz than a Bagwell, or a Piazza to a degree, and those guys should be in as well (and still could be). The passing of time should help, but I don't think we can underestimate the impact of the PED discussion on an Ortiz candidacy. Frankly, I think that without it he would be a lock.
 

Traut

lost his degree
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2005
12,750
My Desk
Papi's highlight real goes holds its own to any player in major league history. His overall career numbers are amazing. His legend as the "greatest clutch hitter of all time" will only grow when he steps away. Papi is a winner and a Hall of Famer. 
 

Ale Xander

Hamilton
SoSH Member
Oct 31, 2013
72,432
Trautwein's Degree said:
Papi's highlight real goes holds its own to any player in major league history. His overall career numbers are amazing. His legend as the "greatest clutch hitter of all time" will only grow when he steps away. Papi is a winner and a Hall of Famer. 
Exactly
 
14 WS games:

.455

.576

.795

1.372

 12-2
 

WenZink

New Member
Apr 23, 2010
1,078
Trautwein's Degree said:
Papi's highlight real goes holds its own to any player in major league history. His overall career numbers are amazing. His legend as the "greatest clutch hitter of all time" will only grow when he steps away. Papi is a winner and a Hall of Famer. 
 
Agree and agree.
 
The 2003 positive test won't really matter, since we'll never know what he tested positive for, he never had a chance to contest the results,  and the 2003 survey tested for substances that were not yet illegal.  And since, a dozen years of clean results.  Besides by the time of his first year of eligibility, in the early 2020's, the average BBWW member will be more enlightened -- the Murray Chass'es of the world will either be dead, or dropped from the voting lists due to the new HOF voting requirement.
 
Ortiz may not be first-time inductee, but it depends upon who else is on the ballot.  Give him a year of little competition, and he's in like Flint.
 

Leather

given himself a skunk spot
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
28,451
Trautwein's Degree said:
Papi's highlight real goes holds its own to any player in major league history. His overall career numbers are amazing. His legend as the "greatest clutch hitter of all time" will only grow when he steps away. Papi is a winner and a Hall of Famer. 
 
Jack Morris has been making a similar argument, as a pitcher, for a decade.
 
Obviously, Morris is a lesser overall candidate than Ortiz, but just because he won a bunch of stuff and gave Boston some great memories won't necessarily move those writers who prefer to take a hard-line, stats-driven, view of his candidacy. 
 
Whether Ortiz deserves to be in the HOF is one question. Whether he makes it is another entirely, and anyone saying he's a "lock" at this point is fooling themselves.
 

JimBoSox9

will you be my friend?
SoSH Member
Nov 1, 2005
16,667
Mid-surburbia
drleather2001 said:
 
Jack Morris has been making a similar argument, as a pitcher, for a decade.
 
Obviously, Morris is a lesser overall candidate than Ortiz, but just because he won a bunch of stuff and gave Boston some great memories won't necessarily move those writers who prefer to take a hard-line, stats-driven, view of his candidacy. 
 
Whether Ortiz deserves to be in the HOF is one question. Whether he makes it is another entirely, and anyone saying he's a "lock" at this point is fooling themselves.
 
The difference in the statistical case between Morris and Ortiz is a difference in kind, particularly when looking at 'peak' stretch numbers.  If Ortiz doesn't take the DH penalty, his numbers are a complement to the highlight reel, not a drag on it, at this point.  Even with the DH thing, unless he also takes the PED hit he's going to walk in.  6-7 years from now I don't think you'll see nearly the same level of steroid-user-hunting bullshit in HOF voting as we have today, he'll enter the ballot in at least somewhat more favorable of an environment.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
20,676
Maine
pokey_reese said:
The longer that he can play, delaying his time to the ballot, and thereby putting as much temporal distance between himself and the steroid era, the better. As much as we don't like to admit it, I've moved around the country a lot and everywhere I've lived other than Boston, people bring up that 2003 test and NYTimes list nonsense. While he isn't Bonds, there is a greater taint on Ortiz than a Bagwell, or a Piazza to a degree, and those guys should be in as well (and still could be). The passing of time should help, but I don't think we can underestimate the impact of the PED discussion on an Ortiz candidacy. Frankly, I think that without it he would be a lock.
 
I agree with you, but the thing that, IMO, should work in Ortiz's favor at least compared to Bagwell and Piazza, is that a whole lot of his numbers have been put up in the post-testing era and in a period in which offensive numbers has become increasingly suppressed.
 

smastroyin

simpering whimperer
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2002
20,684
The things that help his case:
 
- 500 is a big round number that few reach, even including recent years.
- Most of career spent with single team
- Accumulations have thus far happened without a string of bad seasons of number collecting.
- Post-season memories.
 
The things that hurt
- DH
- Outside of Red Sox fans, not generally thought of as a best hitter in the league type
- Counting stats are trended down by his Minnesota days.  If he'd extended his career averages back to age 23 instead of really getting going at age 27 he would be close or over 2500 H, 625 2B, 550 HR, 1900 RBI (I'm doing math in my head feel free to correct).  Top 15 in HR and RBI and top 10 in 2B would be hard to keep out.
 
Things that may hurt
- PED thing, if Dan Shaughfrucktasticallystupid gets a vote.
 
With McGriff and Delgado not getting much consideration (Delgado probably would without his injury ending his career) Ortiz has a bit of an uphill climb compared to what people are thinking.  Or maybe those guys are just generally underappreciated by everyone where Ortiz isn't.
 

grimshaw

Member
SoSH Member
May 16, 2007
4,220
Portland
Something else that may hurt his case is that the majority of voters may be less traditionally stat friendly 6-8 years from now.  His rate stats while still very good, aren't among many of the best in the HoF.
 
His wRC+ is 90th all time, tied with Jack Clark, and his OPS+ is 79th - tied with Jason Giambi and Prince Fielder who are in that all-star, but not hall of fame tier.
WAR is also very unkind to DH's due to the positional penalty because they are going to fall well short of that 60-ish total players tend to be considered at (Edgar is the only DH in history to even crack 50 at 65, and Papi is "only" at 45).
 
On the other hand - WAR may be passé by that time.
 

Captaincoop

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
13,487
Santa Monica, CA
I think some folks are underestimating how much fans outside of New England hold the PED issue AND the career DH issue against him.
 
My own personal HOF philosophy takes into account big moments and postseason performances, and I love the guy, so he's an easy 'Yes' for me.  But I live far from New England, and most other baseball fans I talk to are at best on the fence about him.
 

smastroyin

simpering whimperer
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2002
20,684
If Hall of Fame voter start using WAR as a voting criteria I will personally murder every single voter and then burn the fucking place down.
 
As stupid as traditional counting stats may be, the hubris and annoyance of fake ass analysts who can do nothing but look at a single number and make a decision is completely repulsive to me on a level I can't even describe.  And yes, there are many of you on SoSH.  Sorry.
 

WenZink

New Member
Apr 23, 2010
1,078
smastroyin said:
The things that help his case:
 
- 500 is a big round number that few reach, even including recent years.
- Most of career spent with single team
- Accumulations have thus far happened without a string of bad seasons of number collecting.
- Post-season memories.
 
The things that hurt
- DH
- Outside of Red Sox fans, not generally thought of as a best hitter in the league type
- Counting stats are trended down by his Minnesota days.  If he'd extended his career averages back to age 23 instead of really getting going at age 27 he would be close or over 2500 H, 625 2B, 550 HR, 1900 RBI (I'm doing math in my head feel free to correct).  Top 15 in HR and RBI and top 10 in 2B would be hard to keep out.
 
Things that may hurt
- PED thing, if Dan Shaughfrucktasticallystupid gets a vote.
 
With McGriff and Delgado not getting much consideration (Delgado probably would without his injury ending his career) Ortiz has a bit of an uphill climb compared to what people are thinking.  Or maybe those guys are just generally underappreciated by everyone where Ortiz isn't.
 
Dan Shaugnessey will be close to 70 the first time Ortiz comes up for a vote.  He'll be in his mid-80s the last year of Ortiz' eligibility.  Many of the voters deciding on Ortiz candidacy will have been teenagers when Ortiz was first moving onto center stage.  There's just going to be a whole different mindset towards the PED issue from 2021-2035. And giving the aging process, there will be no voters who can remember an AL game before the advent of the DH in 1973.  There will still be purists who won't vote for a DH, but they will be very few - less than 1 in 10.
 

smastroyin

simpering whimperer
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2002
20,684
Yes, I was just mentioning the CHB as the one Boston writer who is most likely to bring it up, and especially to bring it up completely out of context and without the qualifiers of what the "fail" actually was.  I'm sure Dan still spends the nights thinking he was right to call David a piece of you know what back in spring of 2003 and he just thinks the hidden magic PEDs are what made his assessment completely wrong.
 

Leather

given himself a skunk spot
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
28,451
JimBoSox9 said:
 
The difference in the statistical case between Morris and Ortiz is a difference in kind, particularly when looking at 'peak' stretch numbers.  If Ortiz doesn't take the DH penalty, his numbers are a complement to the highlight reel, not a drag on it, at this point.  Even with the DH thing, unless he also takes the PED hit he's going to walk in.  6-7 years from now I don't think you'll see nearly the same level of steroid-user-hunting bullshit in HOF voting as we have today, he'll enter the ballot in at least somewhat more favorable of an environment.
 
I agree, mostly, but my larger point still stands:  Ortiz might well make the HOF, even if he retired now.  But there's no way on earth he's a "Lock" to do so just because he had some great post season moments.
 
A "Lock", to me, is a guy who can reasonably be expected to make it on his first ballot.   Randy Johnson was a "Lock".   Greg Maddux was a "Lock".  Jeter is a "Lock". 
 
As it stands, I'd put Ortiz' odds of making the HOF from the ballot at about 75%.    I'd say his odds of making it his first year are about 25%. 
 
EDIT: changed my estimations.
 

MakMan44

stole corsi's dream
SoSH Member
Aug 22, 2009
19,363
drleather2001 said:
 
I agree, mostly, but my larger point still stands:  Ortiz might well make the HOF, even if he retired now.  But there's no way on earth he's a "Lock" to do so just because he had some great post season moments.
 
A "Lock", to me, is a guy who can reasonably be expected to make it on his first ballot.   Randy Johnson was a "Lock".   Greg Maddux was a "Lock".  Jeter is a "Lock". 
 
As it stands, I'd put Ortiz' odds of making the HOF from the ballot at about 75%.    I'd say his odds of making it his first year are about 25%. 
 
EDIT: changed my estimations.
Fair point. I view "lock" to mean that he WILL make the HOF, even it's not 1st ballot. I don't think it's likely he's a 1st ballot HOFer either, FWIW. 
 

bsj

Renegade Crazed Genius
SoSH Member
Dec 6, 2003
22,774
Central NJ SoSH Chapter
Not a lock. He already had the DH thing working against him. Adding to that the vague notion of possible PED involvement? I'd put him at a 60-70% chance of getting in, provided he does a little bit more. 
 

Wake's knuckle

New Member
Nov 15, 2006
565
Aarhus, Denmark
grimshaw said:
His wRC+ is 90th all time, tied with Jack Clark, and his OPS+ is 79th - tied with Jason Giambi and Prince Fielder who are in that all-star, but not hall of fame tier.
WAR is also very unkind to DH's due to the positional penalty because they are going to fall well short of that 60-ish total players tend to be considered at (Edgar is the only DH in history to even crack 50 at 65, and Papi is "only" at 45).
 
Jack Clark did it for 1300 less PAs ... so far. That's how "counting stats" matter.
 

Merkle's Boner

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 24, 2011
3,756
The thing that frustrates me about the DH thing is, when looking at those guys GREELEY compares Papi to, does anyone believe that any of them (maybe Bagwell) added any value defensively. Guys like Giambi and Delgado and McGriff were hitting machines, pure and simple. I would argue the same thing about Piazza, to include a guy who most likely will get in. Papi was used correctly for almost his entire career. That shouldn't be held against him.
 

lexrageorge

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2007
18,096
I find the anti-DH bias to be borderline absurd.  MLB has endorsed the use of the DH for over 40 years.  It's another example of so-called journalists attempting to be so-called "old school purists".  Unfortunately, the bias is real, or Edgar Martinez and his 0.933 career OPS would have received much more than 27% of the votes.  I don't believe that bias goes away anytime soon, either.  The NFL's HoF bias against place kickers is a prime example. 
 
Predicting the impact of the PED "thing" several years out is more difficult.  I would like to think that voters will come to their senses and give guys like Bagwell and Piazza their due.  But who really knows.  Emotions are still strong about this topic.  And it's not just CHB that will bring up Ortiz's "failed test".  
 
Then there is the fact that Ortiz's numbers will likely put him just a tad above the Sheffield/McGriff/Delgado group.  Yeah, I think Ortiz will benefit from playing for one big market team most of his career, and his big post-season accomplishments.  But whether that's enough to get him over the hump is a big question.
 
I'll conclude that quoting any statistic that puts Ortiz in the same sentence as Jack Clark is simply misusing the statistic, unless said statistic is the number of the letters in each player's surname. 
 

mauidano

Mai Tais for everyone!
SoSH Member
Aug 21, 2006
35,626
Maui
Imagine how many more hits Papi would have if not for The Shift. No one is robbed more than he is.
 

Rice4HOF

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 21, 2002
1,887
Calgary, Canada
drleather2001 said:
 
Jack Morris has been making a similar argument, as a pitcher, for a decade.
 
Obviously, Morris is a lesser overall candidate than Ortiz, but just because he won a bunch of stuff and gave Boston some great memories won't necessarily move those writers who prefer to take a hard-line, stats-driven, view of his candidacy. 
 
Whether Ortiz deserves to be in the HOF is one question. Whether he makes it is another entirely, and anyone saying he's a "lock" at this point is fooling themselves.
Not to derail this thread, but Jack Morris had exactly ONE clutch game in his career. Aside from that game his career postseason line is 6-4, 4.26 ERA. http://hallofverygood.com/2013-articles/11cooperstown-2013-jack-morris.html If anything, The Morris argument is similar to Joe Carter's
 

Rovin Romine

Johnny Rico
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
23,679
Miami (oh, Miami!)
I'd say he's on the bubble.   I think the PED issue will add a few years consideration time, and the DH issue does not help.  FWIW, I don't think DH's should be penalized - it's a specialized role, and the very best in that role should be considered for the HOF.   
 
Ortiz's real problem is that he didn't accumulate a lot of time hitting at an elite level until his age 27 season.  Also, his 32, 33 and 34 years were solid, but not what you'd expect from a HOF hitter in the middle of his career.   He's turned in basically two elite "humps" where his OPS was in the top 5 players in the league - '03, '04, '05, '06, '07 and '11, '13.   It helps him that his elite years resulted in 3 WS victories.   (Of course, he sucked in the post season in '08, '09).
 
While I wouldn't penalize him for being a DH, DH's are specialized - live by the bat, die by the bat.   He's mostly lived.   But if he hadn't had his resurgence in '11 and '13, I'd consider him a lesser candidate than Edgar Martinez.  
 

RG33

Certain Class of Poster
SoSH Member
Nov 28, 2005
7,199
CA
Ale Xander said:
"Similar" aside from the fact that Ortiz has twice as many ASG, twice as many MVP top 5, 3 WS rings, including one where he hit .688
 
Ortiz is a lock, now, at 495.
"Similar" were the career numbers on BBREF, as mentioned.  The ASG can be argued is a popularity contest, and the MVP can be argued has "Boston bias", and Mark Lemke was a helluva postseason player as well.  There are a lot of ways on top of the PED and DH stuff that national writers with either an anti-Boston bias could spin what you mentioned.   
 
My point is, I'm looking at it from the viewpoint of whether or not he'll get elected -- which was the question.  Not whether or not he belongs, which I stated I think he does.  
 
I don't think it is the lock that you think it is for a number of reasons.  
 

Drek717

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 23, 2003
2,542
 

El Tiante said:
I think DH and PED are big strikes against his HoF election. I would predict that he doesn't get in. Suspected PED users with much better stats are not getting in.
Except that he's continued to hit well into the era of much more advanced and frequent testing.  If every guy who hit for power and was suspected to have maybe been a steroid guy is going to be blocked from the HoF there won't be very many hitters making it into the HoF for the next 10-15 years.

 
smastroyin said:
The things that hurt
- Outside of Red Sox fans, not generally thought of as a best hitter in the league type
 
As someone who lives in St. Louis, I can safely say that David Ortiz is one of the most respected and feared hitters in this very engaged baseball town.  I have an old Ortiz name and number baseball t and I can't walk out the front door without at least one person stopping me on the street to tell me 1. how we suck for beating them in the WS twice in a decade and 2. how great Ortiz is as a hitter.  Sure, they always slide a backhand "DH" comment in there and that will hurt him, but Ortiz has hit well against the best teams on the biggest stages.
 
This country is awash in baseball fans who have had their hopes and dreams of World Series glory dashed by an epic Ortiz blast.  You don't make it in the top 5 of MVP voting 5 times and the All-Star game 9 times from the DH position without being seen as something truly special with the stick.
 
I think he'll make it in, as the first DH to do so, and the real question I have is how long it takes and if Edgar Martinez has any time left to ride Ortiz' coat tails in for his own acceptance.  Here's why:
 
1. At the time Ortiz will become elidgible we're likely going to see a softening of stance regarding PED use as HoF voters will have few credible candidates otherwise and ultimately I feel will soften on Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, etc..  Every team's beat writers will have a guy they feel should be in who is having shade cast upon him related to the PED era, and as such they'll collectively stop throwing stones.
 
2. Ortiz, as one of the few great PED era players who continue producing after significantly enhance testing came into place, will be promoted to shining example of how PEDs weren't that big a deal/over dramatized/frequently charged to guys with only circumstantial evidence or less.  I expect to hear the argument "if PEDs were such a big deal why was David Ortiz hitting better at 39 with heavy testing than he did at 32 in the heart of the steroid era?"  He'll go from pariah to paragon as the narrative shifts.
 
3. Once the PED issue is resolved it then turns into if they want to enshrine a DH.  As the DH is now quite prevalent and the concept of negative defensive value is gaining mind share all the time I'd expect this to be partially weakened as a stigma pre-emptively.  Then the argument would become "if he played 1B poorly would we even be asking this question?" which gets answered by the following HoF criteria check:
 
1. are his all time numbers that of a career HoF?  With 500 HRs and especially if he makes 2500 hits the answer would be a strong "yes".
 
2. was he ever considered a dominant player in the league? 9 ASGs, 5 top 5 MVP voting periods.  League-wide feared hitter from 2003 to 2007, dropped a bit, then surged again in 2011 to 2013 (or beyond, if this second half isn't a mirage).  So two extended periods of dominant production with the gap filled with very good production.
 
3. Did his career exhibit HoF longevity?  Answered above, moreso than any other offensive candidate they'll get to vote on other than Barry Bonds basically.
 
4. Does he have the post-season credentials?  Like basically no one else to play the game, sure.
 
5. Memorable moments?  Again, see above.
 
So they'll go down through the list and say "well, if Ortiz can't make it in the hall what 95-2007 power hitter and what DH ever will?" deciding he's the special circumstance who breaks the seal.
 
In fact, I think a strong 2016 followed by anything even decent beyond will put him in contention for first ballot status.
 
Personally I'm hoping that Hanley and Pedey get healthy and recharged this winter and we go into 2016 with upswing years from his bookend #2 and #4 hitters, leading to a big year for Papi that completely removes the question mark and sees him basically on the future HoF tour from that point on.  A .300/.400/.600 type season and another big post-season.
 

Philip Jeff Frye

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 23, 2001
10,229
If Piazza, probably the best hitting catcher ever, has been kept out because of PED rumors that are even less substantial than those around Ortiz, I don't see how anybody could think Ortiz is a lock for the HOF.
 

smastroyin

simpering whimperer
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2002
20,684
Piazza "admitted" (you could argue he didn't have anything to admit) to buying and using Androstenedione for the entire time it was available before being banned by MLB.  You can argue about whether it should count against him if it wasn't a specifically banned substance yet, but he certainly did it.  Of course he gets an unfair lumping in with McGwire since andro is also what McGwire said he used, and that's certainly unfair.  But, if your retort in comparison to Ortiz is that Piazza was taking a legal substance, then the fact is that it is more likely than not Ortiz was also taking a substance that wasn't specifically banned at the time of his test.  So, I'm not sure how you can come to the conclusion that Piazza's connection is less substantial.
 
This is why the whole idea of voting based on PED use is a really stupid way for the writers to act.  
 

Savin Hillbilly

loves the secret sauce
SoSH Member
Jul 10, 2007
18,783
The wrong side of the bridge....
Drek717 said:
 
 

Then the argument would become "if he played 1B poorly would we even be asking this question?" which gets answered by the following HoF criteria check:

 
 
To that list I would add one more item, which kind of addresses the PED thing too:
 
6. Was World Series MVP a few weeks before his 38th birthday.
 
I agree that at some point, the "if we don't elect him, are we ever going to elect a DH, and if we aren't, isn't that a problem?" argument is going to convince enough people to put him over. After all, the HoF is full of people who would have been DHs if that option had been available to their teams--including, most likely, Babe Ruth, at least after about 1924.
 

mauf

Anderson Cooper × Mr. Rogers
Moderator
SoSH Member
Philip Jeff Frye said:
If Piazza, probably the best hitting catcher ever, has been kept out because of PED rumors that are even less substantial than those around Ortiz, I don't see how anybody could think Ortiz is a lock for the HOF.
 
Josh Gibson says hi.
 
History suggests that Piazza will get over the hump in 2016 or 2017 -- guys who get past 65% or so usually make it over the top in a year or two. Once that happens, there will probably be a rethink of PEDs among the voters, but I'm not convinced that's going to help a guy like Papi who would be on the bubble even if there wasn't a hint of that in his history.
 

8slim

has trust issues
SoSH Member
Nov 6, 2001
24,829
Unreal America
I know it's a fools errand to compare players and expect some kind of consistency for HOF inclusion, but it seems so odd to me that we could have a Hall that includes Jim Rice while it excludes Ortiz.

Ortiz is simply a better offensive player, statistically speaking. And did anyone who voted for Rice substantially value his defense?

Prior to 2013 I wouldn't advocate for Ortiz being in the HOF, but his production the past three years has been remarkable. Add some more to his counting stat totals next year (and hopefully the year after that) and I think his case is incredibly compelling.

The DH and PED whisper issues are unavoidable, but can be overcome.
 

nothumb

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 27, 2006
7,065
yammer's favorite poster
I think Ortiz will get in, in no small part because it's clearly important to him and he will take steps to safeguard his candidacy over the next 5-8 years. I think his postseason stats, his personality and importance to Boston, and his clutch reputation will all get a lot of play when the time comes. Writers will be treated to a whole bunch of 2004 highlights with a dash of "this is our fucking city." And he will get in. As he should.
 

Savin Hillbilly

loves the secret sauce
SoSH Member
Jul 10, 2007
18,783
The wrong side of the bridge....
Also, as I and others have said before, it's a Hall of Fame, not a Hall of Value. And one of the implications of that is that being extraordinary in any notable way helps your case. David Ortiz has been extraordinary at being an old hitter. 25 players in major league history have managed an OPS+ over 130 in at least 2000 PA from age 35 on. It's a remarkable group, including most of the people you'd think of if the Jeopardy answer is "best hitters in MLB history". Ortiz ranks 4th on the list, at 151, behind only Barry Bonds, Babe Ruth, and Ted Williams. Just behind him is Hank Aaron; a little further behind are Edgar Martinez, Frank Robinson, Tris Speaker, and Ty Cobb. 
 
Obviously, being one of the five best hitters ever past age 35--with the other four being probably the consensus best four hitters in the history of the game--is a fairly specific, drilled-down achievement; but it's still an achievement of a sort, and marks him as special in much the same way as the postseason heroics. 
 

kieckeredinthehead

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 26, 2006
8,635
Savin Hillbilly said:
Also, as I and others have said before, it's a Hall of Fame, not a Hall of Value. And one of the implications of that is that being extraordinary in any notable way helps your case. David Ortiz has been extraordinary at being an old hitter. 25 players in major league history have managed an OPS+ over 130 in at least 2000 PA from age 35 on. It's a remarkable group, including most of the people you'd think of if the Jeopardy answer is "best hitters in MLB history". Ortiz ranks 4th on the list, at 151, behind only Barry Bonds, Babe Ruth, and Ted Williams. Just behind him is Hank Aaron; a little further behind are Edgar Martinez, Frank Robinson, Tris Speaker, and Ty Cobb. 
 
Obviously, being one of the five best hitters ever past age 35--with the other four being probably the consensus best four hitters in the history of the game--is a fairly specific, drilled-down achievement; but it's still an achievement of a sort, and marks him as special in much the same way as the postseason heroics. 
The only problem with this, and it's a horrible catch-22, is that the longer he plays at this level the more suspicious voters are going to be about his PED use.
 

AbbyNoho

broke her neck in costa rica
SoSH Member
Jan 20, 2006
12,177
Northampton, Massachusetts
Which is so asinine, because they can go test him right now if they want. Basically, what is the point of rewarding greatness ever now if any success is going to be "clouded" by suspicions. If you don't value what Ortiz is doing in 2015 because it is suspicious how can you value what any current player is doing?
 
The writers not voting for people because of "whispers" are the same people making those whispers. And many of them are doing it without leaving their chairs, because it's easy to do and as long as you don't go too far with it no one can prove you wrong.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

Homeland Security
SoSH Member
Dec 4, 2005
19,615
Portsmouth, NH
Andrew said:
Which is so asinine, because they can go test him right now if they want. Basically, what is the point of rewarding greatness ever now if any success is going to be "clouded" by suspicions. If you don't value what Ortiz is doing in 2015 because it is suspicious how can you value what any current player is doing?
 
The writers not voting for people because of "whispers" are the same people making those whispers. And many of them are doing it without leaving their chairs, because it's easy to do and as long as you don't go too far with it no one can prove you wrong.
****Disclaimer**** I am in no way suggesting Papi used PEDs ****Disclaimer****

It's not asinine for the simple fact that the last round of guys that got busted were being tested and passed them all. They got busted because of paper trails with no positive tests.

The druggists are always ahead of the testers. It's been that way for a long time, at least since people started paying attention to it. And sadly it's why there will always be suspicion about certain guys or even players in general.
 

MyDaughterLovesTomGordon

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 26, 2006
14,181
Playing for an iconic franchise, being part of the curse-breaking idiots, holding the franchise record for HR in a season, and his pure longevity all help his case quite a bit I think.

He's just so much more famous than the McGriff, Sheffield, Giambi types. He's Big Papi. To everyone. That's going to tip the scales in his favor.

But I agree that the more distance he can put between himself and the Sosa/Palmeiro era the better. Stay healthy, Papi.
 

smastroyin

simpering whimperer
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2002
20,684
Papelbon's Poutine said:
****Disclaimer**** I am in no way suggesting Papi used PEDs ****Disclaimer****

It's not asinine for the simple fact that the last round of guys that got busted were being tested and passed them all. They got busted because of paper trails with no positive tests.

The druggists are always ahead of the testers. It's been that way for a long time, at least since people started paying attention to it. And sadly it's why there will always be suspicion about certain guys or even players in general.
 
2015:  Ervin Santana, Jemry Mejia, Andrew McKirkhain failed tests for steroids
2014:  Cameron Maybin failed a test (for amphetamines) 
2013:  Troy Patton failed a test because he took Adderall, Miguel Tejada failed two tests for amphetamines.  
 
Then you have the biogenisis thing which I guess is where you are saying all the recents have been busted by a paper trail?  (ARod, Nelson Cruz, Jhonny Peralta, partly Ryan Braun but he also failed tests) But that punishment was for previous usage and connection (from 2009-2012, for HGH which indeed was not fully tested in that time).
 
2012:  Carlos Ruiz, Bartolo Colon, Marlon Byrd, Yasmani Grandal, Freddy Galvis all failed tests
2011:  Manny Ramirez we don't know details, he retired instead
2010:  Edison Volquez failed a test, said it was because of fertility drug
2009:  Manny Ramirez failed test, said it was from a prescription drug, JC Romero failed test, said it was for over the counter supplement that he checked with MLBPA on beforehand.
 
I guess your point is the biogenisis and you haven't really been paying attention to the other guys because they aren't as famous as the biogenisis guys.  But your conclusion is a bit off, because the biogenisis punishment was for past misdeeds, not necessarily guys who were being tested and passing those tests in the present.  Also of course people will make the (dumb) argument that it proves they are still using "something" but Arod, Cruz, Peralta, and Braun are playing just fine this year, so maybe the links were more spurious than MLB really could say, and more likely, HGH isn't the all encompassing magic pill that its opponents think it is.  That said, it is now illegal and MLB and MLBPA agree on punishment so suspend away.  
 
 
I realize you are talking about public perception, but I guess my argument is that if more people talked about the truth then public perception would change.