Lester to Cubs: Rent Garments Thread

curly2

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Leskanic's_Thread said:
 
Man, I really wanted to get him back. But as a Sox fan, I feel nothing but empathy for Cubs fans. May Jon help lead them to their own 2004. (In one of the few upcoming years when the Sox aren't going to win it, of course.)
 
 
Let it be the year after Joe Maddon is fired for being an abysmal failure.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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ArgentinaSOXfan said:
The only scenario that would have me rooting for the Cubs is if they face the Yanks in WS.
 
I'm actually pulling for them. They have a ton of exciting young talent, two former Sox players who are really good (Rizzo and now Lester) and two former Sox front office guys in Theo and Jed. Lot's of Sox blood out there in the Windy City to root for. Plus, I understand the pain of going so long without a title. There are very few Cubs fans alive who were around for the last title and none of them are old enough to remember it. There's a lot to like there, IMO.
 

Auger34

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RedOctober3829 said:
If the Red Sox give up Bogaerts, Betts, or Swihart for Cole Hamels I will start to lose my faith in this front office.
This is where I am as well. I don't fault the Red Sox for not matching that contract. That's a lot of years and money for a 31 year old pitcher. However, if this causes/makes ben Trade one or more of the big 3 for Cole fucking Hamels then this offseason will have been a goddamn disaster.

I really really hope that the Hamels price tag rumors are just idle media speculation and have no basis in reality
 

SoxinSeattle

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DeJesus Built My Hotrod said:
I don't understand the ire toward the Cubs.  They needed to pay up to get over the hump and presumably they won't have to pay as much of a premium for their next free agent target.  
 
That said, as we all know, Lester is 31 at the start of next season and has over 2,100 major and minor league innings under his belt.   There is a ton of risk in signing a pitcher like that, regardless of durability especially at ~$25mm+ per year.  If his back three or four years end up looking ugly, the team who signs him probably has to forgo a few value signings of the type that helped Boston over the top in 2013 and might help the Cubs when they truly get close.  This was a good miss for Boston at that price point.
The ire is because the wound was just inflicted and Theo was one of us and now bids against us. I must have a dark heart but I hope Maddon and Theo win nothing. All the best to Jon.
 

mloyko54

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The Red Sox will acquire pitching. It's really pointless crying, whining over things before the pieces have been unvieled. Excited to see how things pan out. 
 

RedOctober3829

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Snodgrass'Muff said:
 
I'm guessing they will build a package around Henry Owens. It'll be a steep price, but it's one I'd pay given the fact that they came up short with Lester. If it's going to take one of those three, you walk away and look into other trade options. That said, 6/155 with a vesting option up to 7/170 is past what I would have been comfortable with for a guy Lester's age. He doesn't need to be good in years 5 and 6 to trigger the option, he just needs to be healthy, so the Cubs could be looking at three years of him coming up well short of being worth his contract AAV.
 
I think the Red Sox were right not to match, but the question for me is how high would they have to have gone to change his mind? If 6/135 made it this hard to decide, does 6/140 get it done? 6/144? They may have drawn the line in the sand in the wrong place. Oh well, nothing to do now but get swept up in the trade rumors.
I thought that someone would go 6 or 7 at $155 for Lester and I thought it was going to be the Red Sox.  If they signed him, I'd have been OK with the back end of the contract being an overpay.  With the revenues going up and up, $25 million might not have even looked that bad down the road.  The Red Sox are flush with cash, so I don't want to hear that they couldn't have afforded it.  Now, instead of only cash they'll have to overspend in terms of prospects and cash if they want Hamels.  5/110 for Hamels is obviously lower, but if you have to give up Henry Owens to get him is it that much of a savings?  
 
They could have had him in the spring for roughly the cost of Cole Hamels' current contract plus his option.  Now, they are going to have to pay that plus at least 1-2 big prospects for a pitcher who they know substantially less than then one that they let walk out the door.
 

YouLookAdopted

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curly2 said:
 
It's too early to say that until he puts together a pitching staff. I certainly HOPE to say "Good for Ben" when I see what the team will be.
I'm glad I'm not reading about Boston having just committed $26 mil per year for the next six years to one pitcher. That's a win in my book.

Btw - Good luck Jon and Cubs. I'll be rooting for you, except against the Sox.
 

mauidano

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mloyko54 said:
The Red Sox will acquire pitching. It's really pointless crying, whining over things before the pieces have been unvieled. Excited to see how things pan out.
We're moving on. Plan B. I don't feel the need for a "rebound" move. Make smart choices.
 

curly2

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YouLookAdopted said:
I'm glad I'm not reading about Boston having just committed $26 mil per year for the next six years to one pitcher. That's a win in my book.
 
It would be better than $100M to Shields or Mookie Betts the Phillie. I would hope Ben is smarter than that, but I don't think anyone can call this a win until the pieces are in place.
 
Dec 10, 2012
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RedOctober3829 said:
I thought that someone would go 6 or 7 at $155 for Lester and I thought it was going to be the Red Sox.  If they signed him, I'd have been OK with the back end of the contract being an overpay.  With the revenues going up and up, $25 million might not have even looked that bad down the road.  The Red Sox are flush with cash, so I don't want to hear that they couldn't have afforded it.  Now, instead of only cash they'll have to overspend in terms of prospects and cash if they want Hamels.  5/110 for Hamels is obviously lower, but if you have to give up Henry Owens to get him is it that much of a savings?  
 
They could have had him in the spring for roughly the cost of Cole Hamels' current contract plus his option.  Now, they are going to have to pay that plus at least 1-2 big prospects for a pitcher who they know substantially less than then one that they let walk out the door.
This is pretty close to where I am. If they give up any one of B1, B2, Swihart, Owens, Margot, or Marrero for Hamels, I will go apes**t.
 

soxhop411

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Dan to Theo to Ben said:
This is pretty close to where I am. If they give up any one of B1, B2, Swihart, Owens, Margot, or Marrero for Hamels, I will go apes**t.
You wouldn't do Owens and Marrero? (Even though we know that won't happen?)
 

E5 Yaz

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Cafardo on MLBN suggests the Cubs next will bring in Ross and Gomes.
 
Rosenthal suggests Red Sox have Wade Miley on their radar
 

Hank Scorpio

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CaptainLaddie said:
For those you of you saying "fuck theo" the guy is the mastermind behind 2 world series.
 
Jesus.
 
I'd argue Duquette/Port/Hoyer/Cherington get most of the credit for those championships.
 
Theo stuck us with the mess of 2011 and skipped town.
 

Rasputin

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Dan to Theo to Ben said:
This is pretty close to where I am. If they give up any one of B1, B2, Swihart, Owens, Margot, or Marrero for Hamels, I will go apes**t.
 
I think you're asking a bit much there. 
 
If Owens and Marrero would somehow get us Hamels, I'd be okay with that. 
 

Reverend

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Hank Scorpio said:
I'd argue Duquette/Port/Hoyer/Cherington get most of the credit for those championships.
 
Theo stuck us with the mess of 2011 and skipped town.
So, basically the entire FO except the GM when they happened?
 
Dec 10, 2012
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Rasputin said:
 
I think you're asking a bit much there. 
 
If Owens and Marrero would somehow get us Hamels, I'd be okay with that. 
I certainly may be, but I'd rather see how Bogaerts responds to SS for 3-4 months and if the Webster/RDLR/AR etc. class show anything. Right now, Owens is our #1 pitching prospect, no? And Hamels has been a NL pitcher.
 

Pumpsie

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Good for Jon Lester...and Theo.  The Cubs will be a contender for the next few years, at the very least. 

We need two top of the rotation starters, Ben.  And don't totally shred the prospect list to do it.  It won't be easy.  Get to work.
 

brandonchristensen

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Here's to 6 great years and a World Series to the Cubs.

Fuck ya'll for hating on him (and Theo). They both gave us two World Series wins.

It sucks, but the offseason is now just beginning.

And please, Ben, no trade for Hamels unless we don't have to lose one of the studs.
 

jose melendez

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I'm going to miss him, but I'm completely fine with letting him walk at that number.  $25 mill for his 36 and 37 years will probably be bad deals, and may be compeltely brutal deals.   Let's trade Cespedes for a good starter, sign someone else and then see how the team looks and then we can deal for a top flight starter at the deadline if we're anygood.
 

gaelgirl

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I know you all love Lester, but I think it's a good thing the Red Sox aren't tied to that contract. It will be horrific in the end (most likely). 
 
And remember, Jake Peavy is a free agent! 
 

derekson

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Harry Hooper said:
Lester gets more money while he and his family enjoy a better quality of life via not having to deal with the dark side of an insanely rabid fanbase.
 
Steve Bartman wants to know what a fanbase has to do to be considered rabid with a dark side if ruining his life didn't qualify.
 

Hee Sox Choi

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jose melendez said:
I'm going to miss him, but I'm completely fine with letting him walk at that number.  $25 mill for his 36 and 37 years will probably be bad deals, and may be compeltely brutal deals.   Let's trade Cespedes for a good starter, sign someone else and then see how the team looks and then we can deal for a top flight starter at the deadline if we're anygood.
I think some... Keys to the Off-Season might lift some spirits around here.
 

YouLookAdopted

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curly2 said:
 
It would be better than $100M to Shields or Mookie Betts the Phillie. I would hope Ben is smarter than that, but I don't think anyone can call this a win until the pieces are in place.
No I call it a win. Jon Lester is great, but he's not a $26 mil per year pitcher. If that's what it would have taken (or anywhere close) then I applaud Ben for not leveraging the future payroll flexibility of this team for that. There are other options.
 

derekson

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In a vacuum I guess I understand drawing the line at 6/$135M for Lester, but I just don't understand how you go full-court press on Pablo freaking Sandoval for the right to pay him about $100M and then turn around and top out at $135M for Lester. The two actions seem completely incongruous. Sandoval hasn't performed at a star level since 2011, yet he's worth nearly $20M per year, but god forbid we pay $6M more per year for an ace who was outstanding for most of his run with this team.
 

Hee Sox Choi

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derekson said:
In a vacuum I guess I understand drawing the line at 6/$135M for Lester, but I just don't understand how you go full-court press on Pablo freaking Sandoval for the right to pay him about $100M and then turn around and top out at $135M for Lester. The two actions seem completely incongruous. Sandoval hasn't performed at a star level since 2011, yet he's worth nearly $20M per year, but god forbid we pay $6M more per year for an ace who was outstanding for most of his run with this team.
Panda contract ages:  28, 29, 30, 31, 32
Lester contract ages:  31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37 (vesting 15 mil option)
 
Now go look again at the aging curves and Jon Lester's 3 seasons before 2014.
 

Rasputin

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Dan to Theo to Ben said:
I certainly may be, but I'd rather see how Bogaerts responds to SS for 3-4 months and if the Webster/RDLR/AR etc. class show anything. Right now, Owens is our #1 pitching prospect, no? And Hamels has been a NL pitcher.
 
The thing about Bogaerts at short is that we signed Sandoval so we can't move Bogaerts to third, and I guess we could move him to left or first if we had to, but that's going to diminish his value a lot.
 
And yeah, the NL thing is a concern, but he's been a pretty damn good NL pitcher. 
 
And yeah, Owens is our best pitching prospect, but Eduardo Rodriguez is only three spots behind him, is also a lefty, and would have ranked higher if people trusted his last month more. If that month is more predictive than just random variance, he's going to be much more likely to be a stud than Owens is.
 
I think people forget that for all the awesome in Owens' numbers, he still doesn't project as higher than a middle of the pack guy without a third pitch. And sure, maybe he hasn't needed the third pitch in the minors yet, and that's pretty impressive all on its own, but the majors aint the minors.
 
I would be more upset at giving up Devers or Margot than Owens or Marrero.
 
Now if we were to give up both Owens and Eduardo Rodriguez, I'd be irked.
 
If you can get Philly to subsidize a decent chunk of Hamels, and give up Owens, Marrero, and some sort of lottery ticket. I dunno, that's probably wishcasting.
 
Keep Bogaerts, Betts, Swihart, and one of Owens or Rodriguez at all costs. Try real hard to keep Devers and Margot.
 

mBiferi

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CaptainLaddie said:
For those you of you saying "fuck theo" the guy is the mastermind behind 2 world series.
 
Jesus.
 
I have to canalize my disappointment towards somebody and Maddon is not enough.
 

Hank Scorpio

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mBiferi said:
 
I have to canalize my disappointment towards somebody and Maddon is not enough.
 
Seriously.
 
It was known in mid-2011 the Cubs were tampering with Theo and it was leaked all over the media they wanted to pry him from the Red Sox.
 
After the meltdown of 2011, Theo runs off to the Cubs leaving us with his wreckage.
 
Theo then negotiates his own compensation, as the Cubs announce they're basically not giving us shit for poaching our GM.
 
Then the same thing repeats itself with Joe Maddon, one of the bigger douchenozzles in the game.
 
All the best to Lester, I hope he gets another ring with another team after a massive Cubs fire sale in 2016.
 

mBiferi

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This got me thinking, of all the players that have left the Sox via FA, I can't remember too many that we may regretted letting go... Beltre is one for sure and maybe O-Cab... but other than that, are there any more? Maybe V-Mart but I think that's pushing it.
 
Pedro, Papelbon, Damon, Bay, Ellsbury.... They all left, but I don't think anybody regrets not signing them to big deals.
 

RG33

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This feels like the Cubs version of the Manny Ramirez contract to me. Its an overypay but what they needed to do to entice him to come to Chicago. Its probably something 4-5 years from now they will be regretting, but in retrospect, it put them back on the map and gave them credibility and was worth it in the end.

Good luck Jon. Go Sox.
 

Laser Show

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mBiferi said:
This got me thinking, of all the players that have left the Sox via FA, I can't remember too many that we may regretted letting go... Beltre is one for sure and maybe O-Cab... but other than that, are there any more? Maybe V-Mart but I think that's pushing it.
 
Pedro, Papelbon, Damon, Bay, Ellsbury.... They all left, but I don't think anybody regrets not signing them to big deals.
Was thinking this as well. The FO knows what they're doing. And hard to say that with Victor, since he became a full time DH in Detroit.

As with every departure before Lester, this sucks. But it's probably the right call and the Red Sox will be fine. As long as they don't overreact.
 

Rasputin

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mBiferi said:
This got me thinking, of all the players that have left the Sox via FA, I can't remember too many that we may regretted letting go... Beltre is one for sure and maybe O-Cab... but other than that, are there any more? Maybe V-Mart but I think that's pushing it.
 
Pedro, Papelbon, Damon, Bay, Ellsbury.... They all left, but I don't think anybody regrets not signing them to big deals.
 
We didn't regret Papelbon, and if I had it to do over again, I still wouldn't, but if Uehara doesn't step up in 2013, we very much do regret not signing Papelbon.
 

m0ckduck

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mBiferi said:
This got me thinking, of all the players that have left the Sox via FA, I can't remember too many that we may regretted letting go... Beltre is one for sure and maybe O-Cab... but other than that, are there any more? Maybe V-Mart but I think that's pushing it.
 
Pedro, Papelbon, Damon, Bay, Ellsbury.... They all left, but I don't think anybody regrets not signing them to big deals.
 
Derek Lowe, to everyone's surprise, wound up a good signing. The Yanks more or less broke even with Damon, much as it pains me to admit, although some of that was a product of the Toilet's short left porch. 
 
If you remove the 'via FA' stipulation and look at all the established 'stars' they have let go, the track record looks even better, as you can add Manny, Beckett, Gonzalez, Youkilis and others to the 'nope, didn't regret it' list. 
 

Sprowl

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Lester's cutter will age well, I think, but there's a lot that a team can do with 20 million dollars. Full credit goes to the Levinsons for managing the Lester auction in a way that got the Cubs and Giants bidding into the stratosphere. Theo needed a big splash, and now he's got one.

The Red Sox have improved the offense, but may have to go with a deep starting staff in which nobody qualifies as an ace.
 

mBiferi

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Rasputin said:
 
We didn't regret Papelbon, and if I had it to do over again, I still wouldn't, but if Uehara doesn't step up in 2013, we very much do regret not signing Papelbon.
 
Yeah, for all the hate he gets around here sometimes, I think that Papelbon has earned his contract so far.
 
 
Derek Lowe, to everyone's surprise, wound up a good signing. The Yanks more or less broke even with Damon, much as it pains me to admit, although some of that was a product of the Toilet's short left porch. 
 
If you remove the 'via FA' stipulation and look at all the established 'stars' they have let go, the track record looks even better, as you can add Manny, Beckett, Gonzalez, Youkilis and others to the 'nope, didn't regret it' list. 
 
Yea, Lowe was a horse for the Dodgers... actually, he was that good that he ended up signing a even bigger deal after that one. Of course, we have to take it with a grain of salt since all of this was done in the NL West.
 
Damon, eh... he had to move to LF after one year, his value pretty much decreased after that, specially since we had Manny.
 
One we should have let go was Mike Lowell, although in their defense, that was only the second worst signing of a third baseman in that off-season  :)  ;)
 

Carroll Hardy

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Jon Lester is a total package, complete pitcher: command, makeup, on and on. Yet within that $155M resume are some pretty significant gaps. He sucked from September 2011 through June 2013: that's a long time and a lot of bad starts. Certainly, with the return of Farrell he re-established his command, location and pitch sequence. But he is definitely high maintenance, and can be resistant to change. He's not a wind him up and watch him blow people away with upper 90's gas or a wipeout slider or Bugs Bunny change up kind of guy. He has to focus on both sides of the plate, and command his fastballs and cutters, and sequence them. It's not automatic with him.

Oh well, at least he can afford the big screen and invite Paps, Ellsbury, and Theo over to watch the Red Sox in the 2015 WS. Godspeed, Jon.
 

techsoldaten

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Sucks that Lester is leaving the team, but I am glad we did not take on that contract. Let the Cubs deal with that.
 
The way this played out has me thinking the total dollar value is not all that was included in the Red Sox offer. It's hard to understand why the negotiations would go on so long if there was a $20 million gap between the Cubs and the Sox. I suspect the FO put forth a package that included some other incentives, like contributions to charities that were being talked about in the media.
 
If so, one bright spot to all this is the thought that the FO was getting very creative with ways to lessen the impact of the luxury tax to take on a big contract. There's still some fiscal responsibility.
 

maxotaur

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Dan to Theo to Ben said:
I certainly may be, but I'd rather see how Bogaerts responds to SS for 3-4 months and if the Webster/RDLR/AR etc. class show anything. Right now, Owens is our #1 pitching prospect, no? And Hamels has been a NL pitcher.
Yes, Owens is our top pitching prospect. That doesn't change the fact most scouts have his ceiling as mid-rotation. Unfortunately #1 prospect doesn't equate to #1 anything else in this case. Would trade him for Hamels in a heartbeat.
 

pockmeister

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Completely at peace with the outcome - most likely an albatross contract in the making, and I have no problem with the Cubs being the ones who have Lester over the long term.  Hopefully we can all cheer for them winning a WS sometime in the next 2-3 years, and then look on knowingly as Lester's arm falls off on his 34th birthday, leaving the Cubs payroll constrained for the following 3 years and back in the middle of the pack.  Good for baseball if the Cubs win a WS off the back of some overspending, good for Lester to have all the money he could ever want, good for the Red Sox to have retained financial flexibility.
 
Now the front office gets to be creative.  We can steer well clear of Scherzer, kick the tires on Shields just to see where the asking price is going, and walk away quickly if it's looking silly.  And then get busy with some of the logjam of "prospects".  Xander and Mookie are keepers, as is Swihart.  Beyond that, everyone is available for the right trades - I don't believe most of the hype on the rest of our prospects, so let's see if we can find a few more gullible front offices who think like some of the posters here.  Owens doesn't excite me, Marrero likewise, but there might be ways to turn them into cost controlled starting pitching of suitable quality.  That's the right strategy, and I'm confident that the front office is taking exactly this view.
 

Tyrone Biggums

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derekson said:
In a vacuum I guess I understand drawing the line at 6/$135M for Lester, but I just don't understand how you go full-court press on Pablo freaking Sandoval for the right to pay him about $100M and then turn around and top out at $135M for Lester. The two actions seem completely incongruous. Sandoval hasn't performed at a star level since 2011, yet he's worth nearly $20M per year, but god forbid we pay $6M more per year for an ace who was outstanding for most of his run with this team.
Sandoval has nothing to do with Lester. The third base position had a negative WAR last year and it was a big hole that needed to be filled. Panda was the best one on the market and they ended up getting it done. With a better FA class for starters next year I feel comfortable with not going nuts for Lester. I would assume by year 4 he would have been in steep decline in Boston. The NL lengthens his career and that probably factored in his decision. He is out of the AL and if the Sox are planning on being contenders that's the most important thing.
 

TheoShmeo

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I love when posters here tell other posters how to feel and what emotions to have about a star player leaving (or anything else for that matter).
 
I personally don't begrudge Lester or Theo, hope Joe Maddon suffers from this moment until the end of time (though not because of Lester) and totally understand why a fan (not a rational concept to begin with) would have ill will toward our prodigal son taking our star pitcher.
 
But the "you guys are stupid" thing is one of the hallmarks of sports fans and SoSH, I know. 
 
Unrelated: If those reports are accurate and the Cubs really bid $20 mm more than the Sox, I'm shocked that it was even a close call, and am a little surprised that the Sox didn't raise their bid to something like $145 mm to make it interesting.  At the same time, I'm also very glad that the Sox didn't do that with an eye to the PR ramifications.  Kudos to them to pegging their max and not exceeding it (even if my max would have been higher) even when they knew that a portion of their fans will be pissed that they did not. 
 

YTF

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Somebody has to throw the fucking ball for this team next year and there STILL isn't a spot for all of these prospects nor will all of them pan out. Add to this, trade partners have their own specific needs that may not fall in line with who the Sox (or SOSH) want to part with. That said, thanks Jon. You've earned this.
 

ConigsCorner

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Sox have only themselves to blame, and to be honest, I was surprised that they were in it to the end.
Cubs fans deserve to experience what winning a World Series is like.
 

Remagellan

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I'm disappointed.  We could afford what might turn into a bad contract for an exceptional person and player.  Holding onto the cheap young players would allow us to do that.  
 
But I can't blame Jon and his family for taking that deal although I always wonder what difference an extra 20-35 million really makes.  I guess you could give it to charity because it is not as if it is in any way going to affect your lifestyle when you're already up in that range.  But the challenge of delivering a championship to a fan base as starved for a championship as we once were, I could see that being appealing.  And the move to the NL is a no-brainer for any aging pitcher.
 
Thanks and good luck Jon!  Hope you make some history with your new team.
 
Go Sox!