Latest from Heyman. http://mweb.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/24856029/sf-tries-for-lester-cubs-said-to-bid-138m-sox-130m-braves-less?v=1&vc=1
tl;dr
Sox offer 130, Cubs 138, Braves less
tl;dr
Sox offer 130, Cubs 138, Braves less
Lester: Stop Believing What You Read on Twitter.
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With all the interest, though, it seems like Lester will have the chance to become a $25-million-a-year player with a contract for $150 million or more.
6/$150? No thank you.
With all the interest, though, it seems like Lester will have the chance to become a $25-million-a-year player with a contract for $150 million or more.
6/$150? No thank you.
Rice4HOF said:
What would your preferred alternative be? Shields at something less? Trading away Betts?
I'm serious. We should establish a consensus of not only saying what the Red Sox shouldn't pay for Lester/Scherzer, but...if that FA money is back in the bank, what the Red Sox should pay to improve their rotation.
Another team paying too much for someone like Lester or Scherzer does not help the Red Sox in any way, unless the Sox can re-direct the money they were willing to spend (for example, $138M) into more value.
edit: The first obvious answer is Hamels, who would cost money + prospects. Is there a way to put a future value on prospects that shows Pitcher A @ 150M is a worse value than Pitcher B at 120M + Prospects?
Eh, $23M or $25M. That $2M per year will have less a negative impact on the roster than spending less for a lesser pitcher. It may change who they seek as their number 2, and a guy like Tyson Ross may become more prominent because of his low cost. The downside is he'll likely cost the franchise more talent because of his years of control.. If he doesn't sign here, I don't doubt they can assemble a rotation to compete in 2015, but I dislike the cost in prospects, even with their surplus. That $2M per year is peanuts compared with the value of the kids they'll have to give up. Now if someone goes to 7 years, that may be a bridge too far.Rice4HOF said:
FWIW, Bochy apparently flew to Atlanta to meet with Lester. The mutterings out here are that the Giants are prepared to spend big on a free agent and that Lester is now their main target.
The fact that the Cubs are reportedly $8mm higher than the next offer confirms my suspicion that Theo's just going to pay whatever it takes to get him. You don't say the NL Central is the 2015 goal at your end-of-season presser and then whiff on the best-available FA pitcher.
The fact that the Cubs are reportedly $8mm higher than the next offer confirms my suspicion that Theo's just going to pay whatever it takes to get him. You don't say the NL Central is the 2015 goal at your end-of-season presser and then whiff on the best-available FA pitcher.
If 8 million is all that seperates the Cubs and the Red Sox, Lester is not going to Chicago. I don't know why people continue to think Lester is going to take every penny when he's said multiple times that money is not the most important thing. If the Red Sox are close he's coming back.
mloyko54 said:
Unless you have some inside info on his thinking, you're whistling past the graveyard. Money isn't everything...until it is.
mloyko54 said:
I don't know know about others, and I know he said it. I just don't believe him. Will have to see it to believe it I guess.
Difficult to think of taking lower offers when we consider it in percentage terms (like we would for our own job). Yes, I would take a better job at a lower price for, say, $8,000 less a year.
When that percentage translates into $8,000,000 / 6 ...the calculus changes. $8M, after tax shelters, is a hell of a lot of guaranteed money to turn down because you like lobsters or bbq more than bratwursts.
When that percentage translates into $8,000,000 / 6 ...the calculus changes. $8M, after tax shelters, is a hell of a lot of guaranteed money to turn down because you like lobsters or bbq more than bratwursts.
Because talk is cheap, players say this kind of stuff all the time, and in the vast majority of cases free agents end up taking the highest offer they can find, especially if its differentiated from the next highest offer by as much as $8M.mloyko54 said:
Lester might honestly not value maximizing his money as much as other players and take a lower offer from the Sox but to think that's a lock because of some public statements on his part is pretty naive.
If Theo was at $158 vs our $150, I'd be more inclined to view Lester as Wrigley-bound. But he's not signing for $130 or $138, so those numbers don't mean a whole lot, even relative to one another.
It's the last, best offer that matters and I sincerely doubt either of these represent that for the Cubs or the Sox.
It's the last, best offer that matters and I sincerely doubt either of these represent that for the Cubs or the Sox.
OnWisc said:
Heyman agrees
Jon Heyman @JonHeymanCBS · 40m40 minutes ago
bidding will undoubtedly go up for lester so a thought-to-be 8M gap betw cubs & sox isnt that relevant. shd get 150M plus
You know why guys say its not all about the money? Because a) it sounds good and its what people want to hear b) it is remarkably easy to construct a narrative of comfort no matter where you end up.
Maybe he takes the slightly lower number if it is real close, but he will go to the highest bidder because there is nothing about doing that that contradicts "comfort." Latching on to that as meaning only the Red Sox is definitely, as was noted, totally naive.
Plus he is clearly actively testing the market, which suggests money is already, by definition, a part of his decision.
Maybe he takes the slightly lower number if it is real close, but he will go to the highest bidder because there is nothing about doing that that contradicts "comfort." Latching on to that as meaning only the Red Sox is definitely, as was noted, totally naive.
Plus he is clearly actively testing the market, which suggests money is already, by definition, a part of his decision.
I don't understand how someone can bring up Lester's comments about taking a home-town discount now. The Red Sox traded him. They had a shot to sign him to that home-town deal and declined. To me that makes Lester's comments moot. If Lester really wanted to come back, over and above taking the best contract or finding the best situation, or a combination of the two, he'd have done it by now, like Hanley Ramirez did. He'd have instructed his agents that Boston is where his heart is and he wants a fair contract but he wants to go back to Boston. He hasn't done that. He's played the field which is his right to do. You look at $130 million and $138 million and say there's no difference, but there is a difference and it's $8 million dollars! That's a huge amount of money. [SIZE=14.3999996185303px]He may yet come back, but the Red Sox are going to have to win the bidding or come darn close for that to happen. [/SIZE]
Just offer him $139 and be done with it. It's not that much higher AAV than Pablo got and he's unproven in Fenway.
Cautiously optimistic here. Even if Lester wants a match from Boston, I don't think the gap between 6/130 and 6/138 is going to preclude the Sox from bringing him back to Boston.
Obviously you have to draw the line somewhere when it comes to guaranteed years and money, and that might be 6/150. If the front office wants to retain Lester, and they obviously do, I think now is the time to change things up a bit with their offer. Ideas such as:
- Include a vesting option for a seventh, and possibly even an eighth year. Vesting option would have to be structured to ensure that Lester is still a serviceable pitcher in the sixth and seventh years of the deal.
- Include a guaranteed seventh year, but scale back the AAV a bit. Lester's top offer is currently 6 years at $23M. Maybe offer seven years at $21.5M (approx 7/150).
- Include some really big incentives for stuff like Cy Young Awards and Playoff MVPs. Might be a good pot-sweetener to throw in a $2M incentive for a CYA. Expensive, yes, but even if it took his annual salary to say $27M, it would mean he's arguably out-pitching the likes of Hernandez, Sale, etc...
Obviously you have to draw the line somewhere when it comes to guaranteed years and money, and that might be 6/150. If the front office wants to retain Lester, and they obviously do, I think now is the time to change things up a bit with their offer. Ideas such as:
- Include a vesting option for a seventh, and possibly even an eighth year. Vesting option would have to be structured to ensure that Lester is still a serviceable pitcher in the sixth and seventh years of the deal.
- Include a guaranteed seventh year, but scale back the AAV a bit. Lester's top offer is currently 6 years at $23M. Maybe offer seven years at $21.5M (approx 7/150).
- Include some really big incentives for stuff like Cy Young Awards and Playoff MVPs. Might be a good pot-sweetener to throw in a $2M incentive for a CYA. Expensive, yes, but even if it took his annual salary to say $27M, it would mean he's arguably out-pitching the likes of Hernandez, Sale, etc...
No stick, just tongue firmly placed in cheek.Otis Foster said:
As many people have already posted (myself included), even if Lester is true to his word, nobody knows exactly what he meant about money not being everything. It could mean a lot of things, and not all of them involve his desire play in Boston. Atlanta is close to his off season home. Maybe he'd like to play there. Who knows?
By the time the dust settles Lester's probably going to get in the vicinity of 6/150 .. With maybe a vesting option for a seventh.
I believe the Sox will go that high .. If they are willing to go 6/130 then it's only 3m a year difference. That's not going to break their budget. Considering they have invested heavily in next year's team being competitive I can't see them pinching (millions of) pennies at this point.
I believe the Sox will go that high .. If they are willing to go 6/130 then it's only 3m a year difference. That's not going to break their budget. Considering they have invested heavily in next year's team being competitive I can't see them pinching (millions of) pennies at this point.
We're at the point where the RS should ask Levinson if he's tested the market sufficiently and ask what he's hearing. If it's attainable, then ask him if he has the authority from JL to accept on the spot, or will there be another round of calls/visits. If he has no authority, or equivocates, you have to face the possibility Jon is going elsewhere, and that further delay in deciding this may obstruct bidding on Miller, finding your Plan B starter(s), etc.
There are too many things that need to be sorted out this off-season that won't be if the RS allow the carousel to keep spinning.
BTW, I'm becoming pessimistic on this. If loyalty had any remaining pull on Jon I think we would have seen this reflected in the negotiations by now.
There are too many things that need to be sorted out this off-season that won't be if the RS allow the carousel to keep spinning.
BTW, I'm becoming pessimistic on this. If loyalty had any remaining pull on Jon I think we would have seen this reflected in the negotiations by now.
To the Sox, a few million more per season is really peanuts. I think that while they will stand pretty firm at the 6 years, I think they'll have no trouble going to 150 total, or even a bit more.
EDIT: As Mr. Young put it first upthread.
Its been about 3 weeks since Lester met with the Sox. I think that's a bit soon for 'shit or get off the pot'. I think part of the reason the Sox are being quiet is that Lester gave them at least some assurance that the Sox would get a chance to beat any offer. To me that would be a fair exchange for the Sox bascially setting the market floor. While it doesn't mean that there will be a deal, I've always read that the Sox and the Levinsons have a good relationship.
EDIT: As Mr. Young put it first upthread.
Its been about 3 weeks since Lester met with the Sox. I think that's a bit soon for 'shit or get off the pot'. I think part of the reason the Sox are being quiet is that Lester gave them at least some assurance that the Sox would get a chance to beat any offer. To me that would be a fair exchange for the Sox bascially setting the market floor. While it doesn't mean that there will be a deal, I've always read that the Sox and the Levinsons have a good relationship.
Dan to Theo to Ben said:
I raise your $139 to 6/$144.
That also puts pressure on Lester, as he was quoted as saying that would be tough to turn down after Scherzer turned it down before the season.
After that, if he does leave, the onus is squarely on him while the Red Sox have made more than a token raise to the Cubs offer.
We know that optics are important to this FO. Operating this way shows that they are both fair and generous and do so before the contract spins out into crazy territory.(More years or more AAV) This is the smartest play: He'll look greedy if he doesn't take it, and the Sox will look like they made their best effort and hell, he might even sign it.
mattymatty said:
I'd also note that Heyman says the Red Sox have "suggested at least a willingness to go to $130 million for six years." That's not the same as an offer on the table. That reads to me like "We'd rather not do this, but fine, I guess," which has sort of been what the Red Sox' reported behavior has felt like to me all along during the Lester process.
Maybe, but if you keep eating small pieces of the pie, you eventually still eat the whole pie. Once they go to 6/150, then we can play the "it's only 3m a year difference" game again. And again after that. The fact is, the Sox certainly have a range in mind, and it's doubtful that they'll stray far from that. If Lester wants the biggest contract possible, which is his right, I have a hard time seeing that coming from Boston.BCsMightyJoeYoung said:
It could be as simple as Lester is pretty happy with the way the offers are escalating and he's told his agent, "Let's get all we can from the Sox and then sign with them." John Henry is worth BILLIONS, so why not extract as much money as you can from him. Take the Sox to the max and get all you can from this billionaire and then sign. It's exactly what I would do. Varitek did the same thing and got as much as he could from the Sox and then signed with them.Otis Foster said:
Manramsclan said:
The optics can't be salvaged now. No matter how spiffy this week's offer is, the Sox let the entire process get to this point of open bidding.
Papelbon's Poutine said:
I'm not sure where you're suggesting we're disagreeing. My point is that those "comfort" comments tell us literally nothing about where he'll go.
Even if he's not enjoying the experience of exploring the market, now that he is in the market he may have simply resolved to explore all options.
"Before you sign anywhere, get back to me with the offer you have in hand and let's see what we can do."
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GM of the NYY
This is often stated but I'm not sure how true it is. Forbes.com has him listed as being worth $1.4 Billion, a lot of money for sure, but by no means the richest sports owner.Hee Sox Choi said:
JohntheBaptist said:
Steve Rushin's old air and space column in SI point out nonsense phrases used in sports. "Not the money" was easy to write. He had a whole column of guys that said they were not looking ofr money that signed for top dollar. There was maybe two paragraphs on guys ending up on the Yankees after saying they wanted to stay with their teams and didn't want the money, but ended up Yankees.
reggiecleveland said:
Exactly, especially because it is such a dynamic process. I truly believe a huge chunk of them honestly think "I just want to go to the best overall situation," and ultimately the team that woos them the hardest in their pitch (including giving the most money) naturally feels like the "best situation" and of course they go with that. Whomever is the high bidder is clearly the most motivated in that scenario, and are probably much more forceful in presenting a "better situation." The rest say it because of PR and the knowledge that it is an easy narrative to flip when needed.
It tells us nothing about the outcome whatsoever--and now that he's clearly playing offers off the others and the whole FA game, we can say that money is enough a part of the equation that it folds into his idea of "comfort" (which he could define in an infinite variety of ways, depending on any number of factors) and has even less to do with saying "I want to go to back to Boston" or whatever other conclusion one might draw. We're firmly in "it could be any team" territory.
Lester's exact average over the past 6 years is 5 WAR per season. If one win is 6mill or so, I can see the breakdown being something like this which includes a half win of decline per year as he exits his prime. This also assumes near perfect health like he has had.
5, = 30
4.5, = 27
4. = 24
3.5, = 21
3, = 18
2.5 = 15
= 135
Steamer projects him at 3.5 which is a huge drop and seems really conservative to me. The value of a win may be closer to 7mill though and/or offers could include 5% inflation as well, so this is where I see the bidding going up closer to 150.
I haven't been a fan of 6 years for a 30+ pitcher and would rather they spend 4 years on Shields, trade for Fister and sign Miller and maybe Gregorson if they move out of the Lester sweepstakes. The chance of him remaining healthy over the next years (not even just arm/shoulder injuries) just seems like the exception at the ages he'll be pitching through. They don't even have to spend the money. There's nothing that says they have to approach the luxury tax to field a very good team.
5, = 30
4.5, = 27
4. = 24
3.5, = 21
3, = 18
2.5 = 15
= 135
Steamer projects him at 3.5 which is a huge drop and seems really conservative to me. The value of a win may be closer to 7mill though and/or offers could include 5% inflation as well, so this is where I see the bidding going up closer to 150.
I haven't been a fan of 6 years for a 30+ pitcher and would rather they spend 4 years on Shields, trade for Fister and sign Miller and maybe Gregorson if they move out of the Lester sweepstakes. The chance of him remaining healthy over the next years (not even just arm/shoulder injuries) just seems like the exception at the ages he'll be pitching through. They don't even have to spend the money. There's nothing that says they have to approach the luxury tax to field a very good team.
I was originally hopeful that 6/$120M would get this done (and quickly). That ship has obviously sailed. It's not my money, but I would draw a line in the sand with a final offer (6/$140?) with a deadline. We have the prospects to get a couple of studs and we can always make a run at Scherzer at a higher AAV for fewer years (if he'd consider it). Jon's history of success at Fenway and pitching against the AL East is worth a lot, obviously, but at some point it simply become madness. I have little doubt Ben Cherington is working the phones for alternate SP while negotiating in good faith with Lester's people. If Jon were serious about wanting to come back to Boston and that money isn't everything, I think the 6/$130 is a very fair offer. If we increase it to $140M like I suggested and he still balks at it, I'd say the FO has done everything they can and shouldn't be cast the villains in this story. Yes, they could've offered more in the Spring, but they've certainly showed their love for him with the reported offer. If the love isn't reciprocated, that's fine. He's free to sign with whomever he'd like and I won't fault him for it (unless he goes to the Bronx), but I don't think the guys in Boston should be faulted either at this point.
Manramsclan said:
I can't see how that puts any pressure on Lester to hold him to something he said off the cuff 8 months ago when he was a) still on the Red Sox roster a year away from free agency and b) hadn't put together a CY caliber season. Now that he has been traded by the Sox and become a free agent entertaining offers from multiple teams, he is going to feel absolutely no pressure to sign at 6/$144 if there's any chance a team like the Cubs or Giants will counter with 6/150 or more.
The Red Sox alone are worth 1.5 billion (but I guess he doesn't own 100%). Liverpool is worth 700 million. My point is that Henry is filthy rich so why not take him to the limit of what he is willing to pay and then when you get to that point, accept Henry's highest offer? Makes sense to me and we have precedent with Tek. Anyway, just speculation on my part, as I still have hope that that is what Lester is doing.Merkle's Boner said:
EDIT: Sorry, not ManU, it's Liverpool. Not a soccer follower. BTW, ManU is worth 3.6 billion!
Exactly. The idea that "comfort" = coming back to Boston just seems like wishful fanboy thinking. There are all kinds of ways to be comfortable. Chicago's an awesome town, the Cubs are a great old franchise desperately in need of a hero, and Theo is a familiar and (presumably) trusted figure. Atlanta is near home, and he'd be the leader of a fine young rotation there. SF is Boston West and the park is a LHP's dream.JohntheBaptist said:
Whatever offer he picks, he'll be comfortable with it.
Henry doesn't own Manchester United. FSG owns Liverpool.Hee Sox Choi said:
I understand your point, but there's a huge difference between the two clubs.
Cross the Braves off the list.
David O'Brien @DOBrienAJC
#Braves did not make an offer to Lester. Saw where price was going and didn't think they could make competitive offer.
David O'Brien @DOBrienAJC
#Braves did not make an offer to Lester. Saw where price was going and didn't think they could make competitive offer.
Yaz4Ever said:
If Lester gets more then $150MM, every pitcher in or close to his class (Cueto, Hamels, Zimmerman, and the guys a notch below Shark, Fister, Ross, etc) will cost more in prospects/talent to acquire.
If $140MM is the Sox limit, which is reasonable, then hopefully the front office convinced Lester/Levinson's to give them the last look and 48 hours to match the best offer. At least that will give them 2 days to go get an ace prior to an announcement.
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