Lester on PitchFX

Sprowl

mikey lowell of the sandbox
Dope
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Jun 27, 2006
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Extending Lester is an important topic, but a different question from what Lester is doing in 2014. Jnai and I have been tracking Lester on and off since 2007, so we've seen his pitches come and go. While Lester has developed over those eight years, in my opinion he is still the same pitcher that he was in 2007: when his cutter is well located, he's an excellent pitcher, but when he can't spot or doesn't trust the cutter, he is ordinary -- a durable leftie with consistent velocity, but nevertheless ordinary. The fastball, cutter and curve are perennials; the sinker and changeup come and go. In 2012 the cutter deserted him (or better put, he deserted the cutter. I blame Bobby the Fifth). In 2013, he trusted the cutter again, and his fastball improved in equal measure. The cutter is the difference between Ordinary Lester and Cy Lester.
 
Cy Lester was a warhorse during the 2013 playoffs: 4-1, 34.2 ip, 25 h, 8/29 bb/k, and 5 excellent starts. He threw the cutter almost as often as the fastball, so the batter had to anticipate it and could not zero in on the fastball. In addition to the cutter down-and-in to righties (his signature pitch), he also threw a backdoor cutter to RHB (extending the strike zone). To lefties, he threw a brushback cutter (to push them off the plate), and an outside cutter, but more of a slider, slower and with more horizontal movement (to get them to chase). The only downside is that when the cutter misses over the plate, it is likely to be hit a long, long way. It doesn't happen very often, but when it does, Lester turns into a launching pad for several games in a row.
 
Against the A's, on a bright Northern California afternoon, Lester kept the ball down:
 

 
He sustained 94+ velocity through the sixth inning, but Farrell should have read these tea leaves after the seventh:
 
 

Sprowl

mikey lowell of the sandbox
Dope
SoSH Member
Jun 27, 2006
34,603
Haiku
In his epic matchup against Tanaka, Lester again powered the fastball and kept his pitches down, or at the letters, or on the outside edge. This chart shows excellent mistake avoidance with the fastball and curve:
 

 
His location with the cutter was not pinpoint: the Yankees were waiting on the cutter, and got 4 of their 5 singles off it, but no power worth speaking of. In addition to an excellent fastball, Lester rediscovered his curve, getting 4 of his 7 whiffs on the slow bender, several of them in the dirt.
 

 
It probably helped that the Yankees' offense is as anemic as the Red Sox' these days. There's no Murderers' Row in the rivalry now.