La belleza de Brayan Bello

[nvalvo]

On his baseball card, Brayan Bello has a pedestrian line: 0-3, an ERA that starts with a 7, a .955 OPS allowed, too many walks, waaaaay too many hits.

But if you look even a touch below the surface, you start to see some things that point in another direction. For one thing, those numbers come with a .472 BABIP, which already goes a long way towards explaining how his ERA is more than twice his FIP (3.03). A 62% strand rate (that number is generally closer to 70%) is another data point. He gets a ton of groundballs, and our infield defense with Story out has been pretty questionable.

But what is really exciting, is that per Savant, Brayan Bello has a .282 xwOBA and a .294 xwOBACON (xwOBA only on contact). These are measures of quality of contact allowed, and they are very good numbers. For context, SPs with xwOBAs in the .280 range include Zack Wheeler, Joe Musgrove, Chris Bassitt, Framber Valdez, and Luis Castillo.

Bello is ranked third after Connor Seabold (huh) and Josh Van Meter in difference between his terrible wOBA allowed and his good xwOBA allowed.

This guy looks to be the truth. I thought we should have a thread for our best homegrown pitcher since Lester and Buchholz.

 

[Humphrey]

Given the now nearly mathematical impossibility of making a run, give him the ball every 5th or 6th day until it proves counterproductive to his development.

 

[Reggie's Racquet]

https://nesn.com/2022/08/alex-cora-reveals-plans-for-red-sox-prospect-brayan-bello-going-forward/

 

[Daniel_Son]

On his baseball card, Brayan Bello has a pedestrian line: 0-3, an ERA that starts with a 7, a .955 OPS allowed, too many walks, waaaaay too many hits.

But if you look even a touch below the surface, you start to see some things that point in another direction. For one thing, those numbers come with a .472 BABIP, which already goes a long way towards explaining how his ERA is more than twice his FIP (3.03). A 62% strand rate (that number is generally closer to 70%) is another data point. He gets a ton of groundballs, and our infield defense with Story out has been pretty questionable.

But what is really exciting, is that per Savant, Brayan Bello has a .282 xwOBA and a .294 xwOBACON (xwOBA only on contact). These are measures of quality of contact allowed, and they are very good numbers. For context, SPs with xwOBAs in the .280 range include Zack Wheeler, Joe Musgrove, Chris Bassitt, Framber Valdez, and Luis Castillo.

Bello is ranked third after Connor Seabold (huh) and Josh Van Meter in difference between his terrible wOBA allowed and his good xwOBA allowed.

This guy looks to be the truth. I thought we should have a thread for our best homegrown pitcher since Lester and Buchholz.

Jeez, you weren't kidding. That's the second-worst BABIP in the majors (min. 20 IP), behind only Ian Gibaut from Cleveland.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Hasn't given up a HR in 22.0 ip.

During his minor league career, that number is 0.6 HR/9. 1.5% HR%. Pretty good. Even prior to the velocity jump and improvement in GB%, he was "reducing" HR.

GB%
2022: MLB: 67.6% AAA; 61.2%, AA: 63.3%
2021: AA: 45.3%, A+: 55.2%
2019: A: 46.3%

He'll walk a fair amount and strike out a bunch. He doesn't give up the long ball and causes a ton of GB. A lot of things to like.

Is there a way to track how many double plays a pitcher has induced in the minors? He has 2 in the majors.

 

[Just a bit outside]

I know it usually happens with position players but I think the Sox should look to lock up Bello now. He wouldn't be the first pitcher to sign away early years, Snell with the Rays. If you believe the underlying numbers and that he can be in the rotation for the next 10 years I think you sign him. There is always risk with these contracts, even more with a pitcher, but I am curious if others would try and lock him up.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

I know it usually happens with position players but I think the Sox should look to lock up Bello now. He wouldn't be the first pitcher to sign away early years, Snell with the Rays. If you believe the underlying numbers and that he can be in the rotation for the next 10 years I think you sign him. There is always risk with these contracts, even more with a pitcher, but I am curious if others would try and lock him up.

How much would that even cost? I'd pass. There's a chance he doesn't make it out of his cost controlled years uninjured. Pitchers are just way too risky to lock up for 10+ years. Especially when you will control them through their prime years. Bello will be a FA at either age 29 or 30. I don't see the value in locking him up for his post 30 years right now.

Even if the underlying numbers suggest he can stick in the rotation for the next 10 years, projecting any pitcher out 10+ years is foolish because the injury risk is too great.

Also, Snell signed a 5 year deal that bought out 3 years of arbitration for 1 extra year. Not even close to a 10 year deal.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I know it usually happens with position players but I think the Sox should look to lock up Bello now. He wouldn't be the first pitcher to sign away early years, Snell with the Rays. If you believe the underlying numbers and that he can be in the rotation for the next 10 years I think you sign him. There is always risk with these contracts, even more with a pitcher, but I am curious if others would try and lock him up.

10 years is a big commitment to a pitcher. I'd be okay with a Whitlock-type deal (4/$19M or 6/$36M if all options picked up) if Bello would go for it. Something that doesn't lock the team into any more of a commitment than normal control would, but locks in the cost and perhaps buys out a year or two of free agency for a decent discount assuming Bello becomes what we hope he does.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

10 years is a big commitment to a pitcher. I'd be okay with a Whitlock-type deal (4/$19M or 6/$36M if all options picked up) if Bello would go for it. Something that doesn't lock the team into any more of a commitment than normal control would, but locks in the cost and perhaps buys out a year or two of free agency for a decent discount assuming Bello becomes what we hope he does.

Using Whitlock as a template and factoring in Bello's 2 extra pre arb years (I think?), a deal of 6/$21m, up to 8/$38m if the team options are picked up.

Maybe Bello would go for it. I'd bite at that price. But if he did, he wouldn't be a FA until after his age 32 season. That's assuming he was effective and the Sox picked up his options. Whitlock is in that same position.

If he's willing to take 8/38, I wonder if a team could get creative and offer 2 more team option years at 31 million each bringing the deal to 10/100. Or let years 9 and 10 automatically be guaranteed if he pitches at least 270 innings in years 7+8 combined, or 150+ in year 8. I'm sure there is some way to make a 10 year deal for a pitcher make sense. It just needs to give a team a lot of outs, and it needs to be worth it to the pitcher. So it would probably need some triggers to guaranteed years 9 and 10 where the big money is. Maybe even if a $10 million buyout in year 9, which might give the team pause to pick up year 8. And another $10 mil buyout in year 10. I'm just brainstorming but a 10 year deal to a pitcher could work.

 

[YTF]

Just 6 appearances, 4 starts and 22 innings pitched in the majors and not overly impressive in most of them. He's been a beast in the minors, but has yesterday's performance convinced us that now is the right time?

 

[DJnVa]

Just 6 appearances, 4 starts and 22 innings pitched in the majors and not overly impressive in most of them. He's been a beast in the minors, but has yesterday's performance convinced us that now is the right time?

It's not just yesterday's performance. There's a post above showing that some of his underlying numbers in the majors are actually pretty good, he's just been VERY unlucky.

 

[YTF]

It's not just yesterday's performance. There's a post above showing that some of his underlying numbers in the majors are actually pretty good, he's just been VERY unlucky.

Yes I saw that, but as we used to say around here, extremely SSS.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Just 6 appearances, 4 starts and 22 innings pitched in the majors and not overly impressive in most of them. He's been a beast in the minors, but has yesterday's performance convinced us that now is the right time?

No, but we were assuming the Sox believed in the underlying numbers that he can be in the rotation for the next 10 years. If you did assume that, what would the deal look like?

 

[DJnVa]

Yes I saw that, but as we used to say around here, extremely SSS.

Yes, and so folks are wondering if the team should make a calculated gamble and try to lock him up. The fact that he is super young with not much experience is the point. It's a feature not a bug. If it works out then it's a steal.

 

[YTF]

No, but we were assuming the Sox believed in the underlying numbers that he can be in the rotation for the next 10 years. If you did assume that, what would the deal look like?

To be honest, I've no idea. If I'm the Sox I don't know that I make those assumptions just yet. At the very least I would want to see the next 7 or so starts that he might make if he remains in the rotation for the rest of this season. I'm all for locking up good, young talent early. I think it can be a win/win situation for all parties especially if the player performs well. The team benefits from having the player at a "bargain" rate and keeps him in the fold for a few extra seasons. On the other side of the coin, the player guarantees some financial security and depending on his age at the end of the contract he can still seek his ultimate FA reward.

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

If the remainder of this season goes well, then I’d offer him a Whitlockian deal. 5-6 years, and add some options with significant escalators to make it fair and enticing enough. I would not offer >6 years guaranteed.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

If the remainder of this season goes well, then I’d offer him a Whitlockian deal. 5-6 years, and add some options with significant escalators to make it fair and enticing enough. I would not offer >6 years guaranteed.

Pretty sure 5 years wouldn't even buy out his arb years.

 

[scottyno]

I'm really confused, there's actually a suggestion to offer a guy that has 22 major league innings a contract that could guarantee him $31m a year down the line?

 

[Cesar Crespo]

I'm really confused, there's actually a suggestion to offer a guy that has 22 major league innings a contract that could guarantee him $31m a year down the line?

So what do you think a 10 year deal would look like? I agree it's not going to happen.

 

[scottyno]

So what do you think a 10 year deal would look like? I agree it's not going to happen.

0 pitchers in the history of baseball have ever signed a 10 year contract.

 

[E5 Yaz]

0 pitchers in the history of baseball have ever signed a 10 year contract.

Wayne Garland

 

[scottyno]

Wayne Garland

Literally never heard of him, but I stand corrected.

Sandy Alcantara, who even before this year was really really good, signed for 5-56 and a 21m team option that will almost certainly be picked up, so we're talking 6-77 which bought out all his arb years and 3 years of free agency. Even before this year he was pretty near the upper expectation of what Bello could be, so that's essentially 9-80ish after you already knew he was really good.

 

[Omar's Wacky Neighbor]

I'd pass. There's a chance he doesn't make it out of his cost controlled years uninjured. Pitchers are just way too risky to lock up for 10+ years. Especially when you will control them through their prime years.

For context: the day after the Mets signed Pedro, I ran into Minaya when we were both dropping the boys off at school. My very first question: aren't you at all concerned about his shoulder? His response: we consider EVERY pitcher to be just one pitch away from blowing out his arm.

Some business model....

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

On his baseball card, Brayan Bello has a pedestrian line: 0-3, an ERA that starts with a 7, a .955 OPS allowed, too many walks, waaaaay too many hits.

But if you look even a touch below the surface, you start to see some things that point in another direction. For one thing, those numbers come with a .472 BABIP, which already goes a long way towards explaining how his ERA is more than twice his FIP (3.03). A 62% strand rate (that number is generally closer to 70%) is another data point. He gets a ton of groundballs, and our infield defense with Story out has been pretty questionable.

But what is really exciting, is that per Savant, Brayan Bello has a .282 xwOBA and a .294 xwOBACON (xwOBA only on contact). These are measures of quality of contact allowed, and they are very good numbers. For context, SPs with xwOBAs in the .280 range include Zack Wheeler, Joe Musgrove, Chris Bassitt, Framber Valdez, and Luis Castillo.

Bello is ranked third after Connor Seabold (huh) and Josh Van Meter in difference between his terrible wOBA allowed and his good xwOBA allowed.

This guy looks to be the truth. I thought we should have a thread for our best homegrown pitcher since Lester and Buchholz.

The Connor Seabold part here needs discussion too. I watched two of his starts (we’re there more?) and actually thought he looked great but his stat line wasn’t confirming my eyes. I’m told not to trust my eyes (which I generally agree with) but Seabold actually looked really good- his tendency to get minor injuries has ne more concerned

 

[Apisith]

What would a long term deal look like? He’s under control for his age 24-29 seasons. That’s basically his peak. Would it be worth it to buy out his age 30-32 seasons as well? Based on similar deals, it would cost something like 9 years/$70m.

 

[iddoc]

He certainly looked good in his last outing, though his repertoire seems limited. He has two plus pitches, though his walk rate is still rather high. He really needs another pitch to be a successful starter, doesn’t he?

 

[nvalvo]

He certainly looked good in his last outing, though his repertoire seems limited. He has two plus pitches, though his walk rate is still rather high. He really needs another pitch to be a successful starter, doesn’t he?

I count four-seam and two-seam fastballs, a good slider and a good changeup. That's a pretty classic starters' repertoire. In his last start, he relied on the two-seam and the slider the first time around, and then worked in the changeup the second time through.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

He certainly looked good in his last outing, though his repertoire seems limited. He has two plus pitches, though his walk rate is still rather high. He really needs another pitch to be a successful starter, doesn’t he?

Depending on who you talk to, he has 3 pitches that range from above average to plus. His sinker, change up and slider. He also has a 4 seamer that is average to above average. The sinker was added late in 2021 and many consider it his best pitch. Weirdly enough, at the beginning of 2021, many considered his 4 seamer his best pitch. The scouting reports were really lagging on Bello at the beginning of 2021 though.

I just noticed that Bello was actually ranked higher than Triston Casas on Baseball America's top 100 list for July. They have Mayer at 14, Bello at 22, Casas at 29, Yorke at 50 (seems high but BA had him 33 last year), Rafaela 84.

Bello was 79th in May and 49th in June. It's possible he loses his rookie status this year, though not likely. Needs 28 more innings.

Edit: His walk rate will probably always be around 10%. The K rate will be closer to 30% than 20%.

 

[Manramsclan]

He looked really good tonight.

Even more impressive was the composure he displayed against a very bad umpire, who also seemed to attempt to antagonize him.
He didn't let it bother him too much and was robbed of pitching deeper into the game by a handful of bad calls.

 

[Sin Duda]

I didn't see the game but the plays in the box score show he walked the bases full in the 5th. Did Bello get squeezed?

 

[SinkingLowe]

I didn't see the game but the plays in the box score show he walked the bases full in the 5th. Did Bello get squeezed?

The home plate ump last night was awful (Eck was beside himself a few times), but Bello did lose it in the fifth. At one point he threw seven balls in a row and it would have been eight had it not been for terrible home plate umpiring.

 

[nvalvo]

I didn't see the game but the plays in the box score show he walked the bases full in the 5th. Did Bello get squeezed?

La belleza was on display at times last night, but it was mixed with bouts of wildness. He really didn’t give the bullpen much room for error in the fifth, and Strahm almost wiggled them out anyways.

The umpiring was poor, but that wasn’t the issue in the fifth.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Cora talking about Bello's game against the Rangers. I like the comment about Wacha, Eovaldi and Hill giving him pointers

https://www.mlb.com/video/alex-cora-on-red-sox-s-good-win

 

[Jason Bae]

Bello's pitches from yesterday. Even includes pitch sequences and vertical/horizontal movements in the stat box.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DUzCtdmBeHw

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Aside from the box score- which looks like he was great until he wasn’t…. Can anyone who watched provide some info on his start last night?

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Aside from the box score- which looks like he was great until he wasn’t…. Can anyone who watched provide some info on his start last night?

I thought he looked great--really great--until he had to start pitching out of the stretch/maybe got tired, and he seemed to lose his release point. But overall I found it extremely encouraging and maybe downright exciting. His stuff is great.

 

[E5 Yaz]

I thought he looked great--really great--until he had to start pitching out of the stretch/maybe got tired, and he seemed to lose his release point. But overall I found it extremely encouraging and maybe downright exciting. His stuff is great.

Agreed. The release point thing was evident in the fifth inning, and it looked as though he sped up his mechanics completely through that and the sixth. Hopefully those are fixable, because when he's in a grove the stuff looks terrific

 

[Sox Puppet]

He looked pretty great, mixing up his fastball with a changeup that had a lot of movement on it. Struck out the side at one point and was generally making the O's look helpless. Cedric Mullins was actually the only O that got a hit off of him (3 hits, to be precise).

The Mullins single in the 6th was followed up by a walk, a visit from Dave Bush, another walk, and then that was the night for him. When they brought in Ort to relieve him, it was axiomatic that he would allow all three of those runners to score, and of course he did. The box score didn't do justice to the strong performance by Bello.

 

[Philip Jeff Frye]

When they brought in Ort to relieve him, it was axiomatic that he would allow all three of those runners to score, and of course he did. The box score didn't do justice to the strong performance by Bello.

This is a sidetrack, but Ort is not worth his own thread. Finish this sentence - "Kaleb Ort is the worst Red Sox reliever since __________."

 

[E5 Yaz]

This is a sidetrack, but Ort is not worth his own thread. Finish this sentence - "Kaleb Ort is the worst Red Sox reliever since __________."

Why not just start a thread on "worst Red Sox relievers" and leave this thread about Bello?

 

[Cesar Crespo]

This is a sidetrack, but Ort is not worth his own thread. Finish this sentence - "Kaleb Ort is the worst Red Sox reliever since __________."

Austin Brice? Ort is terrible but every year, there is someone just as bad or worse.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Huh, his ERA for the year is 5.79 but his FIP is 2.95. That's remarkable considering the 1.74 WHIP. I think it's because of his career 0.0% HR% in 37.1 innings.

Makes me wonder what's the longest stretch in the last 30-40 years without giving up a HR to start someone's major league career. I'm guessing if you go back to the 1910's, it's well in the 100s.

Hitters are slashing .304/.392/.399 with a .398 BAbip. He's allowing very little extra base hits. 171 BF, 10 doubles ,2 triples.

 

[chawson]

Brayan Bello is approaching some moderately impressive milestones in home run prevention.

Bello has now thrown the second-most major league innings this year without giving up a home run. He’s gone 42.1 IP without being taken deep, which is one out behind Tim Hill, a submariner reliever on the Padres.

If Bello goes another 7 innings without giving up a homer, he’ll eclipse Andrew Chafin for the most single-season IP with a 0.0 HR/9 since 2014, when Wade Davis and Brandon League threw 72 and 63 homerless relief innings.

If Bello goes another six-inning start without giving up a home run, he’ll have thrown the most homerless innings as a starter in a single-season this century (eclipsing Tyler Thornburg[!] in 2013.

 

[BaseballJones]

Last four starts for Bello:

21.1 ip, 20 h, 7 r, 4 er, 8 bb, 23 k, 1.69 era, 1.31 whip, 9.7 k/9

Not bad, rook!

PS - His season era is 4.75, but his fip is 2.98. He's been EXTREMELY unlucky. Kid is gonna be GOOD.

 

[Kliq]

I'm very hesitant to get too excited about a young Sox pitcher, but it's been really nice seeing his luck turn around and he has been able to have some good stat lines, because he has deserved them.

I don't think anything could be better for the Red Sox than if they were able to get a couple of solid, homegrown pitchers in the rotation.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

I'm very hesitant to get too excited about a young Sox pitcher, but it's been really nice seeing his luck turn around and he has been able to have some good stat lines, because he has deserved them.

I don't think anything could be better for the Red Sox than if they were able to get a couple of solid, homegrown pitchers in the rotation.

Even though Crawford’s ceiling is a no. 3/4 type…. Just adding someone like that provides incredible value from the farm.
Bello’s ceiling is 1.5-ish…. Possibly higher but I need some doubt here…. And a year ago this time he was just starting to raise eyebrows

 

[nvalvo]

Even though Crawford’s ceiling is a no. 3/4 type…. Just adding someone like that provides incredible value from the farm.
Bello’s ceiling is 1.5-ish…. Possibly higher but I need some doubt here…. And a year ago this time he was just starting to raise eyebrows

If we're talking ceiling, I think it's gotten pretty damn high. Before this season, SoxProspects said Bello's ceiling was as a #2/3, but things have gone really well for him since they wrote that. The sky is the limit. A guy with a top-10 groundball rate who also limits hard contact who also strikes out a batter an inning... sounds like Roy Halladay.

Obviously, he has to actually do that, and a big piece of whether he reaches that ceiling will be if he can get his walks down. This version of Bello who is striking out 9 per 9 and walking 4 per 9 while allowing very few fly balls and even fewer HR is a good starter, but one whose results will fluctuate with his BABIP and strand rate. A future version who is only walking 2 and change per 9, as he has done at moments in the minors, is a very good starter. If he can get those walks down to 2 per 9, he could be an ace, especially if he does it by inducing weak contact early in at bats.

 

[Kliq]

Even though Crawford’s ceiling is a no. 3/4 type…. Just adding someone like that provides incredible value from the farm.
Bello’s ceiling is 1.5-ish…. Possibly higher but I need some doubt here…. And a year ago this time he was just starting to raise eyebrows

If the Sox never develop a real 1/2 pitcher, we can live with that. Just getting some home-grown talent that is cost-controlled to fill out the rest of the rotation would be great; as that would help them so much with payroll flexibility, and if they have to pay for a real ace, that isn't a big deal if the rest of the rotation is young and cheap. The Sox inability to develop starting pitching has hit them because they HAVE to pay, or trade assets, to get guys to round out the rotation.