Kemba Walker + 2021 First Round Pick to OKC for Al Horford, Moses Brown

Fishy1

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To me the Brown part of this seems like a prelude (or at least insurance policy) to a trade of Thompson, as they do very similar things and put up very similar stats. Having Brown allows Brad to trade TT while retaining someone who can do the same things TT does (more or less).
Kind of. They're both monsters on the offensive boards, but TT is miserable at getting deflections and blocks. Brown has been better in what are admittedly low leverage, back-up minutes. But TT hasn't garnered a block a game since 2016-2017.

Either way, Moses isn't taking TT's minutes, Horford will be presumably.
 

nighthob

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I mean his block rate is less than the Green Kornet's. Brown is actually pretty terrible on defense. But, he's a fine fourth string C that logs major minutes in Portland and gets called up on nights than one of Horford or Williams is unavailable.
 

Imbricus

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This sportswriter apparently has a higher estimation of Brown and mentions the cheap contract he's signed to. Additionally, I realize this video is by an OKC homer, but some of Brown's stats weren't bad last year:

Having proven prospects signed at such a low cost is a big deal for a team like Boston that has so much money tied up in its top five or six players. Those big money commitments will limit Brad Stevens’ ability to add helpful free agents in future seasons. If Brown can develop into a useful rotation player on a winning team in the next year or two, that’s going to be a valuable tool for the Celtics to build forward with, particularly at a position where the team has never elected to invest heavily in during the past two seasons (center).
Edit: And he had a game like this. This ain't half bad for a guy who barely played his first year with Portland: Oklahoma City Thunder C Moses Brown notched 24 points (12-19 FG), 18 rebounds, seven blocks and three assists across 38 minutes in Sunday's win over the Clippers.
 
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Fishy1

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I mean his block rate is less than the Green Kornet's. Brown is actually pretty terrible on defense. But, he's a fine fourth string C that logs major minutes in Portland and gets called up on nights than one of Horford or Williams is unavailable.
Yeah, I see that, and I get that. Kornet has his own intriguing qualities. He's also four years older than Brown. I could see either of them developing into a quality back-up big, and either of them washing out of the NBA very soon. They both have a lot of work to do to become effective bigs.
 

Devizier

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20 years ago, Kornet and Brown could look forward to ten year+ careers with millions in the bank. I don’t think either is on the team come 2022 at earliest.
 

HomeRunBaker

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This sportswriter apparently has a higher estimation of Brown and mentions the cheap contract he's signed to. Additionally, I realize this video is by an OKC homer, but some of Brown's stats weren't bad last year:



Edit: And he had a game like this. This ain't half bad for a guy who barely played his first year with Portland: Oklahoma City Thunder C Moses Brown notched 24 points (12-19 FG), 18 rebounds, seven blocks and three assists across 38 minutes in Sunday's win over the Clippers.
You have to look at the context of those numbers though. He was often the only big (4 or 5) on the floor for OKC and you know the old adage.....someone has to rebound the missed shots. The other is that post-ASB, where Moses got the majority of his playing time, opponents were approaching games against the Thunder with the intensity somewhere between a shoot around and a preseason game. Moses today couldn’t withstand a minute of playoff action. He’s be completely overwhelmed and isn’t yet able to even pretend to defend on perimeter switches. View him as Tacko.....if we can get some backup minutes from him during his tenure here it’s a bonus.
 

HomeRunBaker

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20 years ago, Kornet and Brown could look forward to ten year+ careers with millions in the bank. I don’t think either is on the team come 2022 at earliest.
The Koncak, McIllvane and Jerome James era was a special one.
 

Cellar-Door

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Oklahoma City Thunder C Moses Brown notched 24 points (12-19 FG), 18 rebounds, seven blocks and three assists across 38 minutes in Sunday's win over the Clippers.
Yeah, so a note on that game... the Clippers sat their entire starting 5 and started their G-League guys so they could tank into the seed they wanted. Brown was playing against fellow borderline roster player Daniel Oturu who is generously 6'8".

Brown is a cheap unguaranteed deal, he may make the end of the bench, he may get cut. His upside is significantly lower than the guys available at 16, and he was mostly a throw-in to make the $ work. (they guaranteed 50K to make the deal).

Think of him as the big man version of Jabari Bird... they like the possibility he could be deep bench, but if they need the $ or roster spot he's gone
 

DJnVa

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This thread had likely thought more about Brown than the Celtics.
 

bankshot1

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Exactly.

I think many here are overthinking this trade. The Celts needed out from Kemba and OKC needs draft picks and to keep on tanking. The rest is parsely on the plate.
 

pjheff

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.His upside is significantly lower than the guys available at 16
Are we sure about this statement? I’m not denying that Brown is raw and in danger of washing out of the league. But he’s also finishing what was supposed to be his junior year at UCLA as a former five-star recruit and McDonald’s All-American who showed more in his age 21 season than RWill did (even as a 22 year old).
 

nighthob

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Pretty much all of them. But it's irrelevant. As I said upthread, OKC is at the saturation point in terms of young players and the odds of the guy they draft panning out for them are negligible. Worse, they now officially have so many draft picks that teams aren't going to offer fair value if/when they try to roll picks forward. Boston sold #16 for $30 million, and what we can garner from that is that Walker's knee is probably evenn worse than we thought.
 

Cellar-Door

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Are we sure about this statement? I’m not denying that Brown is raw and in danger of washing out of the league. But he’s also finishing what was supposed to be his junior year at UCLA as a former five-star recruit and McDonald’s All-American who showed more in his age 21 season than RWill did (even as a 22 year old).
Yes.
He wasn't good in college, he's a worse athlete and you're crazy if you think he showed more than TL at any stop.

This is age 21:
42060

This is second year in the league:
42061
Moses Brown played a good amount of minutes because OKC was actively trying to lose basketball games, if he was on a decent team (like Williams was) he probably never leaves the D-League.
 

pjheff

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Pretty much all of them. But it's irrelevant. As I said upthread, OKC is at the saturation point in terms of young players and the odds of the guy they draft panning out for them are negligible. Worse, they now officially have so many draft picks that teams aren't going to offer fair value if/when they try to roll picks forward. Boston sold #16 for $30 million, and what we can garner from that is that Walker's knee is probably evenn worse than we thought.
I’m not interested in the OKC player development system or the state of Kemba’s knees, just the draft prospects available at #16 who have significantly higher upside than Brown.

He wasn't good in college, he's a worse athlete and you're crazy if you think he showed more than TL at any stop.
I’m also not interested in parsing rate stats for a 283 minute sample. There is no doubt that Williams landed on a competitive squad where minutes were harder to come by, but that’s not the only reason he didn’t see the floor. And I’m not suggesting that Brown will develop as Williams has, only that his production to date and his potential upside moving forward should be considered in context.
 

luckiestman

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I’m not interested in the OKC player development system or the state of Kemba’s knees, just the draft prospects available at #16 who have significantly higher upside than Brown.



I’m also not interested in parsing rate stats for a 283 minute sample. There is no doubt that Williams landed on a competitive squad where minutes were harder to come by, but that’s not the only reason he didn’t see the floor. And I’m not suggesting that Brown will develop as Williams has, only that his production to date and his potential upside moving forward should be considered in context.
What exactly do you mean by upside in this context?
 

luckiestman

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I didn’t introduce the term into the thread, but to me upside means the ceiling of how good a player could (not necessarily will) become.
As measured by what? If Moses hits his ceiling, what does that look like (player comp)?
 

Cellar-Door

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I’m not interested in the OKC player development system or the state of Kemba’s knees, just the draft prospects available at #16 who have significantly higher upside than Brown.



I’m also not interested in parsing rate stats for a 283 minute sample. There is no doubt that Williams landed on a competitive squad where minutes were harder to come by, but that’s not the only reason he didn’t see the floor. And I’m not suggesting that Brown will develop as Williams has, only that his production to date and his potential upside moving forward should be considered in context.
I mean, what do you want to consider then, because the context is...
Robert Williams was considered a better much higher upside player when he entered the draft (and was drafted higher accordingly) based on better physical attributes, better college performance, much broader and better skillset.
he then played for a good team with good bigs and was inconsistent and oft injured but showed real promise in limited minutes.
Brown went undrafted, got a 2 way, couldn't even get a taste in 19/20 over guys like Skal and Swanigan who are both out of the league by 24.
Portland sees not much in him and lets him walk, OKC signs him to a 2 way, and he goes to the G-League. When they get worried they are winning too much, they call him up and give him minutes. He shows 1 skill.

The context favors Williams as the much higher potential player, and Brown as someone the league as a whole didn't see much upside in and who mostly got minutes because he was on a team that actively wanted to lose every game.

I don't know what anyone would look at and say... "Moses Brown lot of potential"
He's a guy who can rebound and has never at any level shown an ability to do anything at all offensively. In college he could block shots? But in the NBA the ceiling on guys who can only rebound is pretty low. If you're an excellent rim protector you can be a bench big maybe.
 

benhogan

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I’m not interested in the OKC player development system or the state of Kemba’s knees, just the draft prospects available at #16 who have significantly higher upside than Brown.



I’m also not interested in parsing rate stats for a 283 minute sample. There is no doubt that Williams landed on a competitive squad where minutes were harder to come by, but that’s not the only reason he didn’t see the floor. And I’m not suggesting that Brown will develop as Williams has, only that his production to date and his potential upside moving forward should be considered in context.
I see Moses Brown as a less costly late 1st round pick. You can look at the mocks and see 7" Centers that are projected to go in the 20s. Day'ron Sharpe & Neemias Queta (same age).

I wouldn't expect Brown to wash out in 2022 since his contract is so cheap and optionality friendly. Plus our Centers get injured walking from the bench to the scorers' table. They need depth at the 5 with TL/Horford.

In addition to that maybe some rebuilder values his age/contract/potential and he can be part of another deal.

A lot of people panning this dude were the same posters claiming that Robert Williams was unplayable this season, so take their opinions with a grain of salt (along with mine ;) )

http://www.tankathon.com/mock_draft
 

Cellar-Door

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If that’s the case, everyone drafted in the first rd has that much upside (or else they would not be drafted).
I don't think there's a good case that Brown has a higher upside than a 1st rounder. I think if there is a case for Brown as being 1st round equivalent it's that he has a bit higher floor than a draft pick because you know at the least he can rebound and play bad but not horrific D in the NBA, where some 1sts just can't do anything at an NBA level it turns out. Also, his contract is cheaper and un-guaranteed.

I still think if you offerred him for picks this year you wouldn't get a bit until you were in the early to mid 2nd.
 

nighthob

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I’m not interested in the OKC player development system or the state of Kemba’s knees, just the draft prospects available at #16 who have significantly higher upside than Brown.
All of them. Brown's upside is third string center. His present is G-League center.
 

pjheff

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As measured by what?
Tools. Physical profile. To some extent pedigree. It’s not dissimilar from the optimist’s case for Romeo Langford (who is 12 days older than Brown).

If Moses hits his ceiling, what does that look like (player comp)?
I don’t know what skills he can or cannot add as a 21 year old, but the peak of his current profile would probably be someone like DeAndre Jordan. I’m not saying that he’ll get there, but it won’t be for lack of upside.
 

nighthob

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You mean the 32 year old DAJ? That's an optimistic, albeit more realistic target. Although he'd have to get a lot better on defense to be as good as the broken down version of DAJ.
 

benhogan

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I don't think there's a good case that Brown has a higher upside than a 1st rounder. I think if there is a case for Brown as being 1st round equivalent it's that he has a bit higher floor than a draft pick because you know at the least he can rebound and play bad but not horrific D in the NBA, where some 1sts just can't do anything at an NBA level it turns out. Also, his contract is cheaper and un-guaranteed.

I still think if you offerred him for picks this year you wouldn't get a bit until you were in the early to mid 2nd.
this is fair, the contract and his ~40 NBA game have value...because of that contract/age he could be traded to a rebuilder that wants depth at the 5. The C's probably just retain him because they need cheap depth at the end of the bench.

Tools. Physical profile. To some extent pedigree. It’s not dissimilar from the optimist’s case for Romeo Langford (who is 12 days older than Brown).



I don’t know what skills he can or cannot add as a 21 year old, but the peak of his current profile would probably be someone like DeAndre Jordan. I’m not saying that he’ll get there, but it won’t be for lack of upside.
DeAndre Jordan's upside is way too optimistic. The Center position has evolved so much its really hard to do past comps for these long, pogo stick Centers.
 
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lovegtm

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...
A lot of people panning this dude were the same posters claiming that Robert Williams was unplayable this season, so take their opinions with a grain of salt (along with mine ;) )
No, you see, everyone has always known that TL would be good. Just don't go check the old posts or anything.
 

lovegtm

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Here's how I'm thinking about the Kemba trade currently.

Everything starts from the premise that the Celtics will try to land a 3rd player over the next 1-2 years. Beal is the obvious guy who could force his way here, but things always come up. At a certain point, if Tatum and Brown are playing well enough and one of Romeo/Nesmith pops, even consolidating picks/salaries into a Jrue Holiday-type makes sense.

The guy they land in will almost certainly be a perimeter player rather than a big, just because of talent distribution in the league.

Prior to the Kemba deal, if a guy came available, they only really had two choices:
1. Package Smart+TT+filler+assets and still have Kemba post-trade
2. Trade Kemba+assets, in which case you have to include extra assets to move Kemba's contract.

The problem with 1 is that now you have Kemba on a roster with 3 other perimeter alphas, when what you really wanted was more defense+off-ball shooting around them.

In both 1 & 2, you have the problem that, post-draft, your #16 pick, the best draft asset you'll have in awhile, has now turned into a player. Either that player will show a lot right off the bat, in which case he becomes untouchable (think someone like Donovan Mitchell at #13), or, much more likely, you'll need to wait 1-2 years to rebuild his value to that of a raw #16 pick, if that even happens.

If Beal (for example) comes available, it will likely be post-draft, so that #16 was never really going to be one of the assets in play for him.

Now, post-Kemba deal, the trade options look like this:
1. Smart+TT+filler+assets, with Horford and TL at center.
2. Horford+assets, with either TT or fungibig at backup center and Smart on the roster

The nice thing in 1 is that you don't need any further moves to instantly be a contender, although you can make them if needed. This also makes various S&Ts make more sense, for example Lonzo if the Knicks decide not to throw the max and his market dries up a bit for whatever reason.

In 2, you can decide Smart works as a swiss army knife, or move him and/or TT for better fits at the same salary slots.

In addition, getting rid of Kemba's salary gives them room to re-sign Fournier and (if my calculations are correct) still use the remaining $11M Hayward exception on an S&T without going over the apron.
 

pjheff

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You mean the 32 year old DAJ? That's an optimistic, albeit more realistic target. Although he'd have to get a lot better on defense to be as good as the broken down version of DAJ.
DeAndre Jordan's upside is way too optimistic. The Center position has evolved so much its really hard to do past comps for these long, pogo stick Centers.
We do understand that upsides are supposed to be optimistic, yes? What was DeAndre Jordan’s upside after being drafted 35th and his age 21 season?
 

lovegtm

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We do understand that upsides are supposed to be optimistic, yes? What was DeAndre Jordan’s upside after being drafted 35th and his age 21 season?
Moses's upside is DJ/Capela, but it's very remote and he would not go anywhere close to 16 if drafted tomorrow.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Tools. Physical profile. To some extent pedigree. It’s not dissimilar from the optimist’s case for Romeo Langford (who is 12 days older than Brown).



I don’t know what skills he can or cannot add as a 21 year old, but the peak of his current profile would probably be someone like DeAndre Jordan. I’m not saying that he’ll get there, but it won’t be for lack of upside.
Moses Brown averaged 9 points on 4 FG makes per game at UCLA, the majority of which I assume were dunks because his FT% was .352. RL averaged something like 15 ppg playing with a torn ligament in his wrist and was in the 90th percentile in some PnR statistical measures and was IND's primary ballhandler.

Just because they were both McD AAs, the two cases are completely different.

As we've discussed before, it's not all that interesting/useful to talk about players' upside without some statistical bands. Yes, Moses Brown could turn into DAJ. I think the odds of that happening are miniscule, like 1%. I think his current odds of getting a second NBA contract are pretty low but maybe he can work hard and turn himself into a poor man's Mitchell Robinson and have a few years of being a back-up big.

Would be funny if he developed a 3P shot this summer. But that to me is wishful thinking, not projection.
 

TripleOT

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If Moses shows that he has the agility to defend switches out on the floor, he will be a valuable backup to TL, and an insurance policy if TL is unavailable due to injury. If he can’t, he will be a third center type who plays in certain matchups when a tall stiff is needed. If the Celtics are going to invest in TL, it certainly makes sense to try to develop a rim runner/protector to play behind him.

If MB becomes a rotation piece, it makes everyone feel a bit better about the 16th pick staple to jettison a problematic contract. If he doesn’t, the pick staple was just the cost of doing business.
 

benhogan

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We do understand that upsides are supposed to be optimistic, yes? What was DeAndre Jordan’s upside after being drafted 35th and his age 21 season?
That's cool, being optimistic is fine. If you watch some video of Moses Brown he doesn't really move/jump like an athletic, prime DJ - which is how DJ derived his value in Lob City. Brown's dunks (footwork) are on the somewhat clumsy side. The good thing is he's 21, super cheap and has played productive NBA basketball.

The Celtics are evolving into a team that won't be developing 19-20yr old late-first rookies at the NBA level anymore (esp Centers). So his limited NBA experience suits the roster while retaining a player that could improve.

If you want a relevant comp, I'd say if he played the same amount of minutes, Moses Brown would give you similar production of a 2021-22 Tristan Thompson. Maybe MB's ultimate upside is TT? Really need to watch him play more, see how his body fills out and what his work/practice habits are like.

At this point, I wouldn't mind keeping Kornet (pick n pop potential). Having Moses/Kornet/Grant as three cheap, fungible BIGs (3rd-5th string) that have different styles and can be deployed situationally is fine by me.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gTnYPjPco5s
 

Devizier

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The problem with projecting Moses' upside is that there are so many guys around the league with his skillset, and some of the better ones (e.g. Javale, Howard) are pretty much available for pennies every offseason.
 

lovegtm

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The problem with projecting Moses' upside is that there are so many guys around the league with his skillset, and some of the better ones (e.g. Javale, Howard) are pretty much available for pennies every offseason.
Yeah, obsessing over end-of-the-bench centers is kind of a Port Cellar tradition, but they don't move the needle tons even if they sort of work out.

Romeo or Nesmith would easily get bigger contracts on their 2nd deals if they pan out than even really good bigs like Sabonis do. You can never have enough 2-way wings, and there are always more centers.
 

Cesar Crespo

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The problem with projecting Moses' upside is that there are so many guys around the league with his skillset, and some of the better ones (e.g. Javale, Howard) are pretty much available for pennies every offseason.
And we just acquired one as a throw in.

This board spends too much time talking about a guy who will play most of his games in Portland. He has upside, he's on a cheap contract for a few more years. Crying about him is like crying about Carsen Edwards. You aren't filling all 15 spots with good players. Barring any injures, he'll see considerably less than 1000 minutes this year, and that's even if they trade away TT. If they don't, he wont see the court.
 
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I don't think the conversation was about what type of player he currently is, but rather about what type of player he might potentially become. And the answer appears to be, not much of one.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I don't think the conversation was about what type of player he currently is, but rather about what type of player he might potentially become. And the answer appears to be, not much of one.
Probably not but a lot of people view rookies and youth from other teams as finished products or judge the players on who they are now.

Moses Brown doesn't turn 22 until October and is locked up for the next 3 years at less than 2 mil per. He's shown a willingness to work on his game and can be stashed in Portland. He can rebound and block shots (though I'm not sure that matters). His block rate of 4.5% this year is only bad if you compare it to TL. 4.5% would actually be good for 12th in the NBA if he qualified. So I'm not sure I get the whole "he blocked shots in college" argument. I know you aren't the one who made it. He blocks shots in the NBA too. And I know blocks aren't super valuable but knocking him for having the 12th best block rate % in the NBA seems pretty comical. His Oreb% of 17.2% would be 2nd in the NBA. His assist rate of 1.7% would be dead last and less than half of the player in 2nd (Brook Lopez, 3.5%). 2nd are Noels and Capela (4.3%). 5th is Myles Turner (4.5%).

Moses is flawed but he has a few interesting skills, greatly improved his FT shooting and is cost controlled for 3 years on a non guaranteed contract. He seems like a good use of a roster spot. This is the same team that has carried Semi for 4 years, Edwards for 2, Waters for 2, Tacko for 2.

Plus, regardless of what you think of Brown, he resembles TL more than TT, Horford or Kornet. Brown is more of a poor man's Mitchell Robinson than TL but there are similarities among the 3.

And I don't know if anyone's posted any highlight videos yet. The 2nd play in... he should work on that. And who dares wear short shorts? Mo dares. I was wondering why he looks so talllllllllllllll. I mean, he is tall but the shorts don't help.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1vQs5kkbi-4
 

Cellar-Door

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Probably not but a lot of people view rookies and youth from other teams as finished products or judge the players on who they are now.

Moses Brown doesn't turn 22 until October and is locked up for the next 3 years at less than 2 mil per. He's shown a willingness to work on his game and can be stashed in Portland. He can rebound and block shots (though I'm not sure that matters). His block rate of 4.5% this year is only bad if you compare it to TL. 4.5% would actually be good for 12th in the NBA if he qualified. So I'm not sure I get the whole "he blocked shots in college" argument. I know you aren't the one who made it. He blocks shots in the NBA too. And I know blocks aren't super valuable but knocking him for having the 12th best block rate % in the NBA seems pretty comical. His Oreb% of 17.2% would be 2nd in the NBA. His assist rate of 1.7% would be dead last and less than half of the player in 2nd (Brook Lopez, 3.5%). 2nd are Noels and Capela (4.3%). 5th is Myles Turner (4.5%).
I'm probably the one who talked about his BLK%, and it's... fine, it's not great like it was in college.

Saying it's 12th if he qualified isn't very useful, because then you eliminate all his peers who also didn't qualify because they are bench bigs.
He's 54th if you don't have qualifying. It's decent, but in keeping with mediocre bench bigs. It's in the Willie Cauley-Stein, Damian Jones range. So I'd put him in the solid but unexceptional range.

Though also, when I say.. "he blocked shots in college" it wasn't meant as a "he hasn't blocked shots in the pros" it wasn't meant to be a negative, it was to note that his other possible upside data point was that he was very good at blocking shots in college, which is a data point, if he became an elite shot blocker in the NBA, that might be something... though generally blocks aren't necessarily indicative of good D (see Hassan Whiteside).

Listen Brown is a nice piece to take a look at and decide if he can be your 14th/15th man (Tacko and Waters aren't comps, they weren't on the roster), and being able to cut him for nothing but the 50K guaranteed as part of the trade is nice. I just think we need to be far more reasonable about his likely role/upside than the "really he's just as good as having the #16 pick" stuff which is kinda silly to me. Nobody on this board would have seriously traded 16 for Brown. He's an intriguing throw-in to make the salary match, and he'll get to compete for the end of the bench with our 2nd rounder and the guys currently deep on the bench in SL and camp.
 

Cesar Crespo

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And not to compare Moses to Langford but a 1.7% assist rate from your 7'2 center who will only touch the ball to dunk the ball after an offensive rebound is far less worrisome than a 5.9% assist rate from your 6'4 SG that you want to develop into an adequate PG.

Interestingly enough, when you add in playoff minutes, they've played roughly the same amount of NBA minutes. They are both going into year 3, but it's more like year 2. Mo is on year 2 of a 4 year contract while Romeo is on year 3 of a 4 year contract.

I'm not a Romeo fan because players with his trends tend not to do well, but he doesn't turn 22 until October and has played a total of 808 minutes in 2 years. The sample size is too small to see if there is year to year growth so what trends? He's long, athletic and terrible on offense. Pretty good on D and under contract for 2 more years.

I'm not a Moses Brown fan because he's pretty terrible offensively, but he doesn't turn 22 until October and has played a total of 953 minutes in 2 years. He's long, mobile and has the tools needed to play D. Under contract for 3 more years. His sample size is also too small to see any year to year growth at the NBA level but there was clear improvement from college to the NBA.

I wouldn't be opposed to trading either but I'd be against releasing either one for nothing. Again, not really comparing Langford the player to Brown the player. Just the situations. They are alike.
 

Fishy1

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His upside is that he parts the Red Claws and progresses to be a quality bench big because of his defense and rebounding.

He's under contract for cheap enough and long enough that we will probably continue to perseverate about his upside as long as we did about Semi's.

This post was not just an excuse to make a Red Sea joke.
 

luckiestman

Son of the Harpy
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
34,884
Reading these basketball threads makes me think I should start a shelter to give a safe space to the all the statistics that are being abused. This is not math, guys.