TL has the longer wingspan and the longer standing reach despite being 6 inches shorter. 7'4 to 7'6 and 9'3 to 9'4.
Kemba Walker + 2021 First Round Pick to OKC for Al Horford, Moses Brown
- Thread starter Dr. Gonzo
- Start date
So I'm wrong, but you don't identify anyone at #16 who'd be better and provide what he could provide? Cool.
And I wouldn't have traded 16 for Moses Brown straight up either. No one is saying they should.
I would've done Kemba and #16 for Al. Getting a potential athletic bench piece was a nice bonus and I don't see anyone in the mock's I've looked at who can provide that size and athleticism. Do you?
As you noted, this wasn't made in a vacuum. It's not like the C's were like, "No, we won't do Kemba for Al, but we will do Kemba/16 for Al/Brown." They got an athletic big guy to help make the money work and he could play a role. Do I think he's going to be an All Star? No. Do I like him better than someone like Josh Hall or Jaylen Hoard to make the money work? Yup.
If Beal does demand a trade, there are three teams that could realistically acquire him that scare me.
One of them, Dallas, really doesn’t have much more to offer than Boston. Honestly, it may even be less than Boston since they don’t have anyone equivalent to Marcus Smart.
The two that I’m worried about are Miami and Denver. I think both of them, if Beal signals he’d be willing to sign an extension, could offer more than Boston
I think there's several teams who could outbid Celtics---the only realistic scenario he ends up here is if he makes clear (AD-style) he wants to play with Tatum/Brown. I don't expect that to happen, but it's not completely inconceivable. It's more likely, IMO, that one of the teams you mention or even an Atlanta or Phoenix seems him as a final piece.
Sorry, that’s what my thinking was but I didn’t type it out.
It should have read “of all of the teams that Beal might want to go to the three that could acquire him that scare me are….”
PHX I don’t think would be a major player because Paul/Beal/Booker would be kind of an awkward fit and I’m not sure they want to undergo such an overhaul after how successful they were this season.
ATL honestly slipped my mind. I am so used to them being kind of a doormat that they didn’t enter my calculus. However, now that theyve been brought up, I have to agree that they would be a major threat.
Basically, you have to hope that Beal says he will only sign an extension with Boston or teams that won’t be able to trade for him. IE Lakers, Clippers, or the Celtics. I think the chances of this are fairly unlikely since almost everyone wants to play in Miami and I think a Herro/Duncan/Achiuwa/picks package beats Smart/Horford/Nesmith/picks…..but I can still dream that Beal really wants to play with Tatum
That actually looks like it might be Al's head photoshopped on Tony Allen's body?
Dallas has a lot less to offer. They still owe another first round pick to the Knicks and have to include Porzingas for salary matching purposes.
Miami still owes picks to OKC, only have the lowest of three picks in '22 (one of which is Brooklyn's (the likely result) and which they can't trade, so it's only available as a swap). So their offer is limited to firsts in '25 and '27 and a '26 swap. So the Wizards would really need to believe that Herro's stinky sophomore season was an aberration as that would be the talent that the Heat offered. (Honestly I'm higher on Nesmith than Herro, and I was always lukewarm on Nesmith.)
EDIT: Also, Duncan Robinson would be a lot less successful on a team where he wasn't the other guy on the floor and the Wizards already have a better version of Achiuwa. They might like DR as trade bait for a contender, but Hachimura is better than Achiuwa with similar upside. (Not that either is very good, mind you.)
That leaves Denver, which could conceivably enter the fray, but they'd be really thin at the big wing spot given that Porter Jr.'s the return and Aaron Gordon the salary ballast (presuming they can get Barton to opt in so that he can be packaged as part of the deal).
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Yeah, basically this. He only shot 4 free throws per game (making 1.4), so that's only a 1 point swing vs a competent shooter or 2 vs an excellent one. The replacement level to take away his 23.4 mpg in college almost certainly wouldn't come close to making up that difference.
My read is this
Your Trading a Hobbled Kemba for an older Horford. Saving nearly 1 years salary (over 2 Years) in the process.
You paid the 16th to do so. We had thrown around scenarios involving MULTIPLE 1s to get off of Kemba. We gave up one.
You get MBrown. A lottery ticket with an attribute (big body and 6 fouls) we needed.
I dont see how this could be anything but a win.
If both Al and MBrown suck next year we really are not far off the 90% best outcome of if we kept Kemba and #16.
If Al is decent and as most of us expect "Fits" better with the Jays then we are way ahead of the best Kemba keeping outcome. regardless of what MBrown does.
If Al is decent and MBrown can defend Embiid even a little then this is a HR.
Your Trading a Hobbled Kemba for an older Horford. Saving nearly 1 years salary (over 2 Years) in the process.
You paid the 16th to do so. We had thrown around scenarios involving MULTIPLE 1s to get off of Kemba. We gave up one.
You get MBrown. A lottery ticket with an attribute (big body and 6 fouls) we needed.
I dont see how this could be anything but a win.
If both Al and MBrown suck next year we really are not far off the 90% best outcome of if we kept Kemba and #16.
If Al is decent and as most of us expect "Fits" better with the Jays then we are way ahead of the best Kemba keeping outcome. regardless of what MBrown does.
If Al is decent and MBrown can defend Embiid even a little then this is a HR.
Fair, but he's also played in 50 career games to ~675 and makes 20% the salary.
Agreed none of this is apples to apples but Moses has a few things potentially going for him.
There are a lot more possible options and it's hard for us to see all the potential fits. Denver, Atlanta, Golden State, the Knicks, New Orleans, and Memphis all have better possible packages assuming Beal commits to re-sign.
Be top 4 in the Conference in rebounding and blocks. It's college basketball, most players suck, if you're elite at anything you can be a power conference starter.
If Beal demands out we already know the packages. Golden State? Wiggins, a mid lottery pick (barring Minnesota landing in the top 3), and a mid first round pick. The Knicks? Filler and non-lottery picks. New Orleans? Bledsoe, Adams, NAW, and picks. Memphis? Not sure what they offer outside of an oft injured F (JJJ), some OKish players (Bane, Clarke), and mid first round picks.
Much like Boston Beal would have to force his way to Memphis, and I'm just not seeing it. Also, after the Kyrie Irving debacle, I doubt anyone makes that gamble without having a credible source that can assure them that Beal is really staying. Fortunately Boston has one of those.
What if they waived Horford and stretched his guaranteed money over three years?
It would be closer, won't know until the maxes are finalized. It would probably be close enough either way that Beal would take the slightly under max.
Of course, going into a season with Tatum/Brown/Beal and literally nothing else is a pretty terrible idea, it would be a terrible back end of the roster with little chance of growth and have no real shot at a title.
Cleaning the glass stats suggest Brown is a terrible offensive player, though great at rebounding, shot blocking, etc.
Still, I see value in a cheap 7'2" rim running big who can play some minutes in the league. And maybe he can improve. One way he's NOT like Rob Williams: He has a 1.1% assist rate, good for the 0th percentile in Assists and assist:usage among bigs. Rob was at 13.9%, good for 80th percentile in assist rate and 92nd in assist"usage.
The Himmelsbach tweet saying that Brown would get a look here and that this was not necessarily the end for Tristan Thompson strikes me as either a weak bid to not have Thompson's trade value crater or an indication that the C's are not bullish about Rob's health.
Still, I see value in a cheap 7'2" rim running big who can play some minutes in the league. And maybe he can improve. One way he's NOT like Rob Williams: He has a 1.1% assist rate, good for the 0th percentile in Assists and assist:usage among bigs. Rob was at 13.9%, good for 80th percentile in assist rate and 92nd in assist"usage.
The Himmelsbach tweet saying that Brown would get a look here and that this was not necessarily the end for Tristan Thompson strikes me as either a weak bid to not have Thompson's trade value crater or an indication that the C's are not bullish about Rob's health.
Edit- misread that.
I agree, Brown looks like a deep bench guy who gives you 5-8 minutes every 3-5 games ideally.
I remember the starting Center on Bird’s Indians State team, Alex Gilbert, shot 25% from the line on the year.
Which in all likelihood is not Moses Brown. Yes we can all dream about his future double-doubles but it's not likely he's going to get a second contract in the NBA. Frankly, I'd rather have the Green Kornet assuming he could hit 35% of his 3Psbut that is not a foregone conclusion either.
The one thing that amazes me about this trade is that OKC takes on $30+M in salary for the #16 pick. That seems high.
Look, I argued in another thread that picks and salary can get it done for Boston if Beal demands it, but resolving everything to just 'picks' is an oversimplification. All other things being equal, in a bidding war all of the mentioned teams have more picks than the Celtics have to offer. Whereas the Celtics only have all of their own picks (except this year of course), the Knicks have 19/21 this year and the Mavs 2023 1st alongwith all their own, the Pelicans have extra firsts along with their own, the Grizzlies have extra firsts. For a rebuilding team, that's just worth more unless they really have a strong opinion on our filler vs someone else's.
Keep in mind, Beal is going to steer where he goes to a good extent. In order for any of those teams to make their best offer they need to feel strongly that Beal will be there long term.
Either way, I think Beal is going to be in WAS at least until the deadline, so this year's picks won't matter much.
If Beal really want the Celtics he'll get here and we'll give up a bunch of picks. If he just wants out of WAS, someone else probably has the best offer. If he really wants to go somewhere other than BOS that team will have the inside track.
Y'all are gonna feel pretty silly the first time Moses blocks a shot with his forehead.
At a glance, I really like this trade. When Tatum/Brown went from 29 combined ppg in 2019 to 51 ppg in 2021, it was clear that Kemba's offense wasn't worth his price or defensive deficiencies, and that's before you get to the injury issues. Horford can generate some offense for others and doesn't always need the ball to be effective, plus in a vacuum trading a 6'0 player for two guys who are 6'9 and 7'2 feels good. Saving potentially $20M+ is nice, and while it's never ideal to kick away mid-1st round picks, this team needs to develop the young guys they have, adding another rookie to the mix probably wouldn't help with that.
This can't be the last move - we don't really have a true point guard on the roster (not counting Waters) and we're a bit heavy at the center position. If Fournier leaves, we'll be short on guys who can effectively create their own shot. Let's see what comes next.
The problem is that Beal's a pending FA, as I stated. After the Irving debacle you're not going to see teams empty the vault for guys about to walk. There's a reason that the Spurs got a bad contract (DeRozan, a mediocre player getting max money) and low firsts for Leonard. So rebuilding squads aren't going to empty the vaults for him. You can just leave those teams out your list.
Anyone else here go to Moses Brown School in Providence? [Just 7th and 8th grade for me... but this made me smile.]
Moses was the good (abolitionist) Brown, brother John was the Triangle trader and profiteer.
Moses was the good (abolitionist) Brown, brother John was the Triangle trader and profiteer.
Fo', fo', fo'!
I also like this deal just to get out of Kemba's contract...and watching him get killed on defense in playoff/meaningful games.
I am liking this the more I think about it (and I already liked it from the jump).
There is a chance now to reshape the team identity in a positive way that would have been less available this year with an unhappy Kemba eating up $ and demanding 30 mpg and the touches/shots to go with it.
Defense, ball movement, outside shooting, and supporting the Jays. Compete now while maintaining the flexibility to pounce if and when the opportunity strikes.
I also don’t think OKC will recoup value in a future Kemba trade unless it is yet another asset accumulation move where they get picks stapled to a worse contract. I see a buyout in his future.
There is a chance now to reshape the team identity in a positive way that would have been less available this year with an unhappy Kemba eating up $ and demanding 30 mpg and the touches/shots to go with it.
Defense, ball movement, outside shooting, and supporting the Jays. Compete now while maintaining the flexibility to pounce if and when the opportunity strikes.
I also don’t think OKC will recoup value in a future Kemba trade unless it is yet another asset accumulation move where they get picks stapled to a worse contract. I see a buyout in his future.
The idea is it open’s up the possibility of bringing in a third star player after this season, which Kemba’s contract precluded. I am far more optimistic it can be done than Cellar.
I don't really understand basketball and the salary cap issues but I'm shocked this isn't an obvious home run. I thought people were talking about having to staple multiple 1st rounders to Kemba, and even then it might be impossible. This seems pretty reasonable after reading most of the posts about options that might be available before the trade actually happened. (Again, I'm pretty clueless about this stuff though.)
not sure the 33-37 Celtics played in many high leverage games this year
Moses would be the 3rd string Center on this team, he would mostly play low-leverage minutes. More importantly, he played NBA minutes, so he shouldn't be completely overwhelmed when on the floor
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Another pro athlete in Boston with the same name as a high school, in this case a private school. First field in the US to have Astroturf was at that school. https://www.waterwisegrass.com/first-artificial-grass-field-1964/
One team was attempting to win and couldn’t get any momentum going. Mo’ Brown rolled up the majority of his numbers on a team actively throwing games.not sure the 33-37 Celtics played in many high leverage games this year
We won 37 games regular and postseason combined!not sure the 33-37 Celtics played in many high leverage games this year
for sure, I made some edits (removed a Tristan wisecrack, I've ruffled enough Canadien feathers on game threads).
Moses will probably fill the role of cheap, 3rd/4th, fungible BIG along w/Kornet
I looked at Brown's game log for 2020-2021. He is a total nobody, racking up DNPs with abandon for the first 36 games of the season.
Then, after a long time being "inactive" he reappears on March 11th and begins a nice string of games. In the final 36 games of the season, he:
- scores 20 or more points 4 times,
- scores in double digits 18 times,
- rebounds in double digits 16 times, and
- has 14 rebounds or more 9 times.
The kid is still 21 years old. Let's see what the Celtics can do with him.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/brownmo01/gamelog/2021
Then, after a long time being "inactive" he reappears on March 11th and begins a nice string of games. In the final 36 games of the season, he:
- scores 20 or more points 4 times,
- scores in double digits 18 times,
- rebounds in double digits 16 times, and
- has 14 rebounds or more 9 times.
The kid is still 21 years old. Let's see what the Celtics can do with him.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/brownmo01/gamelog/2021
Not sure it's been mentioned yet in toto but for a couple reasons Horford is more valuable to the Celtics than he would be to generic NBA team X. That moves the needle to positive also.
Love this post. I like the move as well and it has me eager to see what comes next. The off-season continues to fascinate me and I can’t wait to see what the 2021-2022 season holds. I am fairly certain next season will be much better than the last.
Multiple 1sts would be if they were getting back a player on a neutral or positive contract. Horford is also on a negative contract, so 1 1st is sufficient.
Still agree it's a good trade, though.
A starting 5 of Smart/JT/JB/???/TL is 4/5ths of the way to an ELITE defensive lineup.
That is a very very intriguing concept to me.
I am strongly in favor of the trade, but for accuracy sake, worth remembering Horford is still a negative asset.
We’re trading a major negative asset and a 1st rounder for a moderate negative asset. I still think it was the right move and am optimistic Al can be a useful piece next year, but it’s not like Horford was in demand on that contract.
If we wanted to move Kemba for any sort of true positive asset, then yes, it still likely would have taken multiple 1st rounders or some other legit pieces.
PG wish list:
wish list shrinking
Any other rotational PGs potentially available?
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Ball isn't an option anymore. Sign & trade transactions invoke a hard cap, and Boston can't stay under that figure anymore unless Ball is taking so little that the Pelicans would just keep him.
I was under the impression that they could S&T as long as they traded back contracts, just not into the trade exception, without being hard-capped, but I admit I didn't look into it too carefully, & agree that it's super unlikely to happen regardless.