Kemba Walker + 2021 First Round Pick to OKC for Al Horford, Moses Brown

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It's kind of an obvious trade to make - many people on this board have been talking about this possibility for a while now. Sucks that they had to staple a first-rounder to Kemba to get rid of him but it's definitely the case that they are better off trading this year's #16 as opposed to, say, some future protected first-rounder when we have much less visibility into what the team's needs will be at that point. So I don't know if it's a "good" trade, per se, but it was probably a necessary one.
Some of the hand-wringing on Twitter about losing the No. 16 pick is comical. Yes, that pick could turn out to be the next Giannis. But more likely it'll be at best a rotation player and could well be something less than that.

If Romeo and Nesmith turn out to be keepers, the C's will be fine.
 

Joe D Reid

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I like this in a vacuum, but we need to see how they solve for the 1 now. I think it means Smart is back and I'm worried about what that contract will look like.
 

RedOctober3829

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I don't read it that way at all... Brown is a throw in, he's too raw to be worth much, he's just the incentive to pay 16 for the future $ savings.
I look at it as Moses Brown is the 16th overall pick. The odds of getting a player worth much at 16 seem to be on par with the odds of Brown developing into a good player. He's signed cheaper than the 16th pick would have been too.

I believe it’s the team Horford is on, not Philly.
OK, so it's basically a given that $14.5 million is going to be guaranteed then.
 

Jeff Van GULLY

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Injuries suck. The Celtics couldn’t afford to keep that salary/production mix on the roster. Al isn’t that good anymore but that’s not the point. Thompson or him are gone before the season starts and I wonder about Timelord as well.

With the Bucks and Nets rosters, getting a better cap structure for 23/24 makes a lot of sense.
 

Ale Xander

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I like this trade, but how much will be a function of the dominos that fall from there. I'm not really concerned about who plays point with Tatum and Brown on the floor so I won't be devastated to see Smart stapled to Thompson for more roster improvement.
Totally forgot about Thompson.

Thompson, RWIII, Mr Promised Land, and Horford I don't think are all staying, just not enough minutes, especially with all the similarities in the first 3.

Yeah, Smart stapled with Thompson makes sense.
 

RoDaddy

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I love Kemba so this makes me sad.
Same here. There was a lot of love for him on this site before it turned to hate. And if Hayward hadn't gone down again last year, I think the Tatum/Brown/kemba/Hayward/Smart Celts would've/could've beaten the Lakers in the finals
 

boca

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This opens up the potential of a Time Lord trade as well.

Will be interesting to see how Brad sees the bigs going forward.
 

ifmanis5

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More Woj, who will be on ESPN2 soon:
Brad Stevens’ first deal as President of Basketball Operations comes with Sam Presti, with whom he’s had a longtime friendship dating back to Butler days. Rare trade ahead of Chicago pre-draft combine, but sides got value they wanted now on a major deal.
 

Ed Hillel

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The problem with trading Time Lord is that Time Lord is exactly the kind of guy you need. If you can package him with Brown for a star big, ok. If not, I think you gotta keep Time Lord and hope for the best.
 

BigSoxFan

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This opens up the potential of a Time Lord trade as well.

Will be interesting to see how Brad sees the bigs going forward.
Does seem like this is the first step in a pretty sizeable shake up that many of us wanted. Tatum is probably the only person who is 100% sure he's not getting traded. Brown is probably like 98%. Everyone else much lower.
 

Cellar-Door

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I look at it as Moses Brown is the 16th overall pick. The odds of getting a player worth much at 16 seem to be on par with the odds of Brown developing into a good player. He's signed cheaper than the 16th pick would have been too.
I don't see that on 2 fronts:
1. Brown is 2 years in and has maybe 10 decent NBA games played, he's much less likely to be an impact NBA player. So there is at least as much bust potential, and no chance of a first 2 year breakout.
2. A 1st has 5 years plus RFA rights if he does break out.

People are WAY too high on Brown in this thread. he can rebound.... that's about it, he has no offensive game and for the most part his defense was bad last year.
He could be good eventually, but he's very much a flyer
 

JCizzle

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As others have said, Kemba seems like an awesome dude. However, you need to be healthy at some point. At least Al will be happy passing to JT and JB.
 

RedOctober3829

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Woj on Get Up: Durability of Kemba was an issue. Not easy to part with him, but had to get off of that money. Gives them flexibility to sign Evan Fournier. Possibly going with someone on the roster or a stop gap. Saves them $34 million in future money by doing this trade.
 

PedroKsBambino

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Has anyone seen a good quantification of the 2022 offseason cap implications? That's a big piece.

Assumptions about Fournier/other signing this offseason and Smart extension matter, but do we have a quick sense of what this opens up?
 

HomeRunBaker

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Until we see the rest of the off-season moves, looks like Smart starting, Pritchard off the bench, but Tatum as the main ballhandler a lot of the time.

And if they bring Fournier back, he can bring the ball up some too.
Way too early to be discussing rotations. This is the complete non-Jays roster overhaul I called for last winter. It wouldn’t shock me to see like 4 holdovers from last years roster.
 

Devizier

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Honestly surprised the Celtics did so well here.

The first is no big loss, but getting a big who can actually play (a little bit) is something.

Fuck that, I'm genuinely excited for the Horford return.
 

bankshot1

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Kemba as on/off and managed minutes was deadly to this team and its tendency to stagnate on offense.

Al is Al is fundamentally sound, can pass, and a senior voice that JnJ presumably respect and maybe Al mentors TL.

If Brad can find a Rondo-lite, to do a little orchestrating, and play D, I'm happy

Adios Kemba, you're a good dude, and I'm sorry it didn't work out.
 

Cellar-Door

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Has anyone seen a good quantification of the 2022 offseason cap implications? That's a big piece.

Assumptions about Fournier/other signing this offseason and Smart extension matter, but do we have a quick sense of what this opens up?
My guess is it opens up $0.
This is about tax not space. Celtics are unlikely to go below the cap for the life of Tatum's deal.
 

ManicCompression

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I don't see that on 2 fronts:
1. Brown is 2 years in and has maybe 10 decent NBA games played, he's much less likely to be an impact NBA player. So there is at least as much bust potential, and no chance of a first 2 year breakout.
2. A 1st has 5 years plus RFA rights if he does break out.

People are WAY too high on Brown in this thread. he can rebound.... that's about it, he has no offensive game and for the most part his defense was bad last year.
He could be good eventually, but he's very much a flyer
Agreed that Brown is not going to do much beyond giving us maybe 10 decent minutes at the 5, but would you grant that it's similar to dropping 20 spots in the draft rather than giving a first straight up? I'd think Brown's value at this point is the 35-40th pick
 

RedOctober3829

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I don't see that on 2 fronts:
1. Brown is 2 years in and has maybe 10 decent NBA games played, he's much less likely to be an impact NBA player. So there is at least as much bust potential, and no chance of a first 2 year breakout.
2. A 1st has 5 years plus RFA rights if he does break out.

People are WAY too high on Brown in this thread. he can rebound.... that's about it, he has no offensive game and for the most part his defense was bad last year.
He could be good eventually, but he's very much a flyer
The 1st round pick would cost more per year however. Maybe that's something that matters for whatever roster building plans they may have. Ultimately, I think they had to attach the pick to Kemba to do the deal but getting back someone with potential like Brown that can help fill the back of the roster very cheaply is pretty good.
 

moondog80

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The problem with trading Time Lord is that Time Lord is exactly the kind of guy you need. If you can package him with Brown for a star big, ok. If not, I think you gotta keep Time Lord and hope for the best.
The problem with keeping him is that his rookie deal runs out soon, and I'm not sure he's a guy you want to commit real years and money to.
 

Cellar-Door

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Agreed that Brown is not going to do much beyond giving us maybe 10 decent minutes at the 5, but would you grant that it's similar to dropping 20 spots in the draft rather than giving a first straight up? I'd think Brown's value at this point is the 35-40th pick
Yep that's my take. It's basically getting a 2nd back.
 

Cellar-Door

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I think this is a good take for why this deal is iffy (click through and it's tweet thread from Bernandoni):
View: https://twitter.com/dangercart/status/1405877978794442754


Basically, if you plan to cut Al year 2 it's a bad deal, because all you saved is tax money.
If you have a deal lined up for Al it's a better trade.
If you're just playing Al for 2 years it's also a not great trade, but not terrible, worse if you have to pay to get off Thompson.
 

BillMuellerFanClub

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Wait, so Horford has two years left, like Kemba?
Kemba
2021-22: $36M
2022-23: $37M

Horford
2021-22: $27M
2022-23: $26M (only $14M guaranteed)

When you factor in the luxury tax implications of what keeping Kemba would do in a basic scenario of running it back, this saves a pretty good amount of money in this season but specifically next. The delta next season alone could be as much as $23M, which covers a player of Fournier's ability or better, without factoring in the tax.
 

AimingForYoko

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I'm glad they were able to get out from under Kemba's contract. I'm ehhhh on the return but I was hardly expecting to "win" this trade with Kemba's health & money. And I don't think we get jobbed.
 

pjheff

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People are WAY too high on Brown in this thread. he can rebound.... that's about it, he has no offensive game and for the most part his defense was bad last year.
So he can replace Tristan Thompson then (at 1/6 the cost on a non-guaranteed contract).
 

AMS25

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He had an absolutely monstrous game (first half) against Boston in which he posted close to 20/20, if memory serves.
Moses Brown is an inexpensive rebounding machine who can protect the rim. He's signed to a four-year deal worth $6.8 million, with years two and three non-guaranteed. I'm a Thunder fan and definitely consider him to be an asset.
 

cheech13

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With Horford only guaranteed $14mm in the final year of his contract you could easily stretch-waive him next offseason, which would effectively be $32 million in cap savings versus Kemba for the 2022-23 season. That opens up a lot of roster flexibility, especially when considering tax implications of having Brown and Tatum on the roster.
 

OurF'ingCity

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I think this is a good take for why this deal is iffy (click through and it's tweet thread from Bernandoni):
View: https://twitter.com/dangercart/status/1405877978794442754


Basically, if you plan to cut Al year 2 it's a bad deal, because all you saved is tax money.
If you have a deal lined up for Al it's a better trade.
If you're just playing Al for 2 years it's also a not great trade, but not terrible, worse if you have to pay to get off Thompson.
Even in the first scenario, "just" saving tax money is a major benefit because it's zero-sum, so tax money saved from this deal means more tax money that can be spent on whatever - Fournier (wouldn't be my choice), some other player acquired in a trade, etc.

Also, I don't think they necessarily need to have a deal lined up for Al now - Al is just generally more tradeable, so they have more flexibility now than they did yesterday.
 

Jimbodandy

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Same here. There was a lot of love for him on this site before it turned to hate. And if Hayward hadn't gone down again last year, I think the Tatum/Brown/kemba/Hayward/Smart Celts would've/could've beaten the Lakers in the finals
You won't find a ton of hate for Kemba here. But his salary and production were an actual problem, especially since the injury that he has doesn't just get better.
 

mikeot

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$14M instead of $38M, a somewhat promising young big as we bid adieu to Tako; kudos to the GM formerly known as CBS on a solid first move.
 

Cellar-Door

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Even in the first scenario, "just" saving tax money is a major benefit because it's zero-sum, so tax money saved from this deal means more tax money that can be spent on whatever - Fournier (wouldn't be my choice), some other player acquired in a trade, etc.

Also, I don't think they necessarily need to have a deal lined up for Al now - Al is just generally more tradeable, so they have more flexibility now than they did yesterday.
I mean... it's only zero sum if you have a cheap owner given they made moves this year to reset the tax, that would mean a very cheap owner.
Trading away a 1st to save the owner $ is always a bad deal.

I think this could be a good deal, and it opens some options, but if it was made in the plan of just saving Wyc money it is pretty bad.
 

luqin

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Very happy with this deal. This team was going nowhere with a hobbled Kemba starting at point guard. This at least give some flexibility for Brad to make other improvements to the roster.
 

PedroKsBambino

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I'm with HRB it's way too early to say.

They certainly could open up room to be FA player in a couple years, though not sure that is realistic. They also create more optionality with the contracts and short-term lux tax space swapping Kemba's % salary for Horford. What combination of MLE, Fournier, Smart, other trades fills in all that has such a wide range of outcomes it's just tough to say.

I will say this: they needed a big move and so while I share early concerns about this one others have stated, the big-big picture is they weren't on a track I beleived in and this puts them on a different track, and with a lot more exits you can imagine. We'll see. Much more interesting rest of offseason now I expect
 

benhogan

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Even in the first scenario, "just" saving tax money is a major benefit because it's zero-sum, so tax money saved from this deal means more tax money that can be spent on whatever - Fournier (wouldn't be my choice), some other player acquired in a trade, etc.

Also, I don't think they necessarily need to have a deal lined up for Al now - Al is just generally more tradeable, so they have more flexibility now than they did yesterday.
yep, +1. the correct take.

Way too much "in the vacuum" analysis here, projecting what Al + Moses vs Kemba + #16 2years out is silly. The situation is completely fluid. The only thing that is certain here is payroll flexibility, which is hugely important when building around the JAYS.

BTW 21yr old Moses Brown is much better than a 2nd round pick. He fits in as the 3rd string Center, now they move Tristan Thompson + 2nd to Sac for Delon Wright.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Only a first. This hurts a bit in the sense that they have nobody who can really do what a healthy Kemba ostensibly can do. But we’ve been there done that. The knee isn’t going to magically improve.

The team just got much better on defense by default.

To me this is sort of a reboot of the #7 and Raef for Ratliff/Telfair, but with even less concern over missing out on a lotto ticket. Okay in a vacuum but sets up the possibility for a home run later.
 

RedOctober3829

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I mean... it's only zero sum if you have a cheap owner given they made moves this year to reset the tax, that would mean a very cheap owner.
Trading away a 1st to save the owner $ is always a bad deal.

I think this could be a good deal, and it opens some options, but if it was made in the plan of just saving Wyc money it is pretty bad.
It wasn't. It's a basketball move. I think it opens up space after this year to try to get a 3rd star in here in which they couldn't if Kemba was here.
 

OurF'ingCity

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I also wonder whether Stevens felt a bit more comfortable giving up this year's pick given (a) he has a limited amount of time to scout, plan for draft, etc. (obviously the team infrastructure, scouting reports, etc. are all there, but still) and (b) scouting college (and international) players in general might be tougher - particularly for the types of non-stars you could expect to be available at 16 - due to the various Covid stoppages and issues over the past two seasons.
 

pjheff

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Moses Brown is an inexpensive rebounding machine who can protect the rim. He's signed to a four-year deal worth $6.8 million, with years two and three non-guaranteed. I'm a Thunder fan and definitely consider him to be an asset.
Does anyone know why he wasn’t drafted? The guy was a five-star recruit, McDonald’s All-American, center out of Malloy and UCLA, etc. I know that he’s not a modern stretch big and likely never will be, but I’m wondering if there’s anything negative there that I hadn’t heard.