Kemba 2021: The Jour-knee Begins

Jimbodandy

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There might be three other guys who are better Damian Lillards over the remainder of his current deal (Curry, Booker, and Young) than Damian Lillard.
 

nighthob

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I understand aging curves but Dame is 31, not 35, and is coming off the best season of his career. Barring a catastrophic unexpected injury he’s still going to be a top 5-10 player for the next 2-3 years. I swear sometimes players over 25 all get discussed as if they are seconds from their career falling off a cliff.
If that were the case we’d be discussing Jaylen as if he were seconds from falling off a cliff. But this is a nonsense post anyway, if Lillard were a 6’7” 220lb wing I doubt anyone would care. He isn’t. He’s a 6’2” guy that relies on quickness that’s about to turn 31. I agree that he he likely has a couple of great years left, barring injury, but the post-33 track record of little guys isn’t great.
 

jmcc5400

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I would stripmine the roster to add Dame to Tatum and Brown. A deal that costs you Brown + to pair Dame with Tatum feels like a short term gain in relevance that still leaves you short of a championship-level contender followed by salary cap hell and Tatum leaving. No thanks.
 

Light-Tower-Power

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As great as Dame is, this team needs another undersized guard over 30 with a long, expensive contract like it needs a hole in the head.
 

Cellar-Door

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If that were the case we’d be discussing Jaylen as if he were seconds from falling off a cliff. But this is a nonsense post anyway, if Lillard were a 6’7” 220lb wing I doubt anyone would care. He isn’t. He’s a 6’2” guy that relies on quickness that’s about to turn 31. I agree that he he likely has a couple of great years left, barring injury, but the post-33 track record of little guys isn’t great.
I mean.. that's 1 year of his 4 year deal... also which guys? I'm not seeing the top players at 30 who took a nosedive by 33.

The number of elite guards who turned 33 recently is pretty small:
Chris Paul... still great at 35

Next tier down from Elite:
Lowry- bit of a decline at 32, bounce back at 33, was still and All-Star caliber player
Conley- Just had one of the 2-3 best seasons of his career at 33
Parker- had his role reduced, but his performance was still strong through his age 33 season.

He's a top 5 player now?

What other top 5 players (or top 10, for that matter) win a playoff series every 2-3 years?
I don't think he's top 5, probably top 12.
However... there is a guy who got a ring last year who spent years as a top 12 player and didn't win much of anything in the playoffs.
Players who stay on bad teams, especially in the West are going to have a lot of playoff losses. I mean that's what happens when you put top players on deeply flawed rosters, they get you to the playoffs, win you some games, but can't compete with the top teams.

Edit- 2018 is really their only bad series loss recently, and they made a great WCF run in 2019.
 
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DJnVa

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So, someone point me to where the Dame stuff started? Like, an actual person with sources that mentioned Dame and Boston.

Thanks.
 

Cellar-Door

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So, someone point me to where the Dame stuff started? Like, an actual person with sources that mentioned Dame and Boston.

Thanks.
Zach Lowe and Chris Herring on Lowe's podcast speculated that IF Dame was traded Jaylen Brown was one of the deal centerpieces that made sense.
 

benhogan

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If Portland starts an OKC teardown and Dame is moved elsewhere (Miami?)

Kemba + #16 for CJ

Portland can start their rebuild smiling.
 
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You are correct in your statement about being realistic, but there is at least a non-zero chance that Time Lord makes that leap. If that were to happen, a star trio of Tatum, Brown and Time Lord could be the nucleus of a team that could compete for a championship. There were a few glimpses this year of how dominant TL can be, but unfortunately he just hasn't been able to stay healthy.
 

slamminsammya

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The team also isn't winning a title with just Tatum/Brown. That's kind of the point. Tatum/Brown/Dame.. now we are talking.
Why not? Which team would have a better top 2? I guess the Lakers or the Nets, but there are serious age concerns for those teams. I realize choosing top 2 is a bit of cherry picking when it comes to the Nets but I don't think its crazy to say they'd have a shot. Is Jokic / Murray obviously better?
 

the moops

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You are correct in your statement about being realistic, but there is at least a non-zero chance that Time Lord makes that leap. If that were to happen, a star trio of Tatum, Brown and Time Lord could be the nucleus of a team that could compete for a championship. There were a few glimpses this year of how dominant TL can be, but unfortunately he just hasn't been able to stay healthy.
The thing is that a trio of Tatum/Dame/Time Lord is even better though.

I mean, this is all made up fantasy chat anyway, but I honestly doubt that POR even considers trading Lillard for Brown.
 

Cellar-Door

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The thing is that a trio of Tatum/Dame/Time Lord is even better though.

I mean, this is all made up fantasy chat anyway, but I honestly doubt that POR even considers trading Lillard for Brown.
Yeah, my general feeling is they'd rather ride with Dame until he publicly demands a trade than move him, and he so far hasn't shown any willingness to demand a trade.
 

Fishy1

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I think if you could pry Dame from Portland for Kemba plus a pick or three, you do it, but I don't think there's a chance the Blazers do that. I think there's a solid history of disgruntled guards going for a bad contract plus picks - but I don't think Portland resets. They've had countless chances to retool. Instead, they keep bringing back Enes Kanter.

As for the idea that smaller guards don't age well... John Wall didn't even make it till 30 before the wheels fell off. Chris Paul, tough as he is, hasn't been able to stay on the court much of the last four years. Curry missed most of last year. And then between Kemba and Isaiah, we've had two where the mileage caught up to them all at once. By 32 Wade was scoring under twenty a game. He had a nice bounce back season the next year, but he wasn't what he was at 29.

And if you want to look at non-stars, Jeff Teague lost his first step at 30. Rondo hasn't been the same since he turned 30. Eric Bledsoe. We could keep going.

The point is, again, not the productivity, but the huge risk you take on with a guard at that age that they get injured, and then you're screwed. Lowry is a remarkable exception, but his number will get called too. Westbrook, bless his heart, is still chugging away, but he's not even 33 yet.

The point is, there's no reason to ship out Jaylen. Other opportunities will become available to bring in talent without giving up one of our stars. We got Irving for IT plus a pick, and Fournier for almost nothing. The Jazz got Conley for peanuts plus a pick. Kawhi went to Toronto for very little too. The Harden and Anthony Davis deals are two exceptions where it took a ton of picks to get it done, but those deals were for the rights to at least two years of AD and a lot more of Harden. The Lakers got a ship out of it but the window there might have already closed. The Nets are without Harden too.
 

slamminsammya

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And if you want to look at non-stars, Jeff Teague lost his first step at 30. Rondo hasn't been the same since he turned 30. Eric Bledsoe. We could keep going.
The obvious different to point out here is these examples were all guys who were primarily slashers and didn't have plus shooting. Dame has to be one of the best shooters in league history.
 

Cellar-Door

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The obvious different to point out here is these examples were all guys who were primarily slashers and didn't have plus shooting. Dame has to be one of the best shooters in league history.
Also none of those guys were in Lillard's vicinity as a player... I mean those aren't even consistent all stars, nevermind All-NBA types.

I will say, Mannix wrote today about what he thinks a BOS trade would look like and I have no interest. He said something like Brown, all the young guys and 3 picks.
I have no interest in that. I'd be talking Brown and a 1st, with some fill at most. Lillard is a lot better than Brown, but you do have to take into account age and contract. I don't think Lillard is some guarantee to fall off a cliff, but even if he just has modest decline, 50M is a lot.
 

Fishy1

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Also none of those guys were in Lillard's vicinity as a player... I mean those aren't even consistent all stars, nevermind All-NBA types.

I will say, Mannix wrote today about what he thinks a BOS trade would look like and I have no interest. He said something like Brown, all the young guys and 3 picks.
I have no interest in that. I'd be talking Brown and a 1st, with some fill at most. Lillard is a lot better than Brown, but you do have to take into account age and contract. I don't think Lillard is some guarantee to fall off a cliff, but even if he just has modest decline, 50M is a lot.
That's why above that I included the extremely lengthy list of top tier players who've suffered similar fates.
 

Sam Ray Not

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Assuming they were both available for the same talent outlay, would people rather have Lillard or Beal? Obviously Dame’s the better player in a vacuum, but I wonder if the fact that Beal is three years younger, a bit bigger, and STL-BFFs with Tatum changes the calculus.
 

Cellar-Door

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That's why above that I included the extremely lengthy list of top tier players who've suffered similar fates.
I mean, if the argument is that NBA players suffer major injuries... sure. But none of those are particularly tied to being into their 30s or being small guards. The list of bigs or wings, would be just as long.
 

DJnVa

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Is there any way the Dame talk (which is happening in 2 different threads) can be broken out into thread on potential acquisitions or something?
 

Fishy1

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I mean, if the argument is that NBA players suffer major injuries... sure. But none of those are particularly tied to being into their 30s or being small guards. The list of bigs or wings, would be just as long.
I agree that this is futile, and am going to leave the discussion. You can read this if you want to, @Cellar-Door : "It's a Hard-Knock Life: Game Load, Fatigue, and Injury Risk in the National Basketball Association" https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6107769/#__ffn_sectitle

Among the conclusions the article draws is that the longer you play in the NBA, the more your chance of getting injured increases. It also concludes taller players are less likely to get injured. It's a limited study, but the findings might make you question some of your assumptions.
 

slamminsammya

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I agree that this is futile, and am going to leave the discussion. You can read this if you want to, @Cellar-Door : "It's a Hard-Knock Life: Game Load, Fatigue, and Injury Risk in the National Basketball Association" https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6107769/#__ffn_sectitle

Among the conclusions the article draws is that the longer you play in the NBA, the more your chance of getting injured increases. It also concludes taller players are less likely to get injured. It's a limited study, but the findings might make you question some of your assumptions.
The minutes played relationship may simply be discovering that low minutes role players who stand in the corners don't take as much of a beating as primary ball handlers. Is that news? I also worry about a similar selection bias with the age dimension but the relationship is not as obvious to me. The caveat here is I only read the abstract and didn't look at exactly how they set up the analysis.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Kemba wants out.

View: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2944334-sources-say-boston-celtics-and-kemba-walker-want-a-breakup


Walker helped push the Celtics to Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals in 2020, but they fell short to a surprise Miami Heat run. Despite that success, Ainge was ready to move on from Walker within the point guard's first year.

Sources close to the Celtics revealed Ainge sought to trade Walker, and Jrue Holiday was the target. Holiday ended up with the Milwaukee Bucks, who are now in the second round of the playoffs.

A source close to Walker said he was hurt by Boston's efforts to trade him, which created a rift in the Walker-Ainge relationship. Walker has a great relationship with his teammates and looked forward to being a veteran mentor to Tatum and Brown, but the same can't be said about Walker and the front office. He no longer feels wanted.

Walker helped push the Celtics to Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals in 2020, but they fell short to a surprise Miami Heat run. Despite that success, Ainge was ready to move on from Walker within the point guard's first year.

Sources close to the Celtics revealed Ainge sought to trade Walker, and Jrue Holiday was the target. Holiday ended up with the Milwaukee Bucks, who are now in the second round of the playoffs.

A source close to Walker said he was hurt by Boston's efforts to trade him, which created a rift in the Walker-Ainge relationship. Walker has a great relationship with his teammates and looked forward to being a veteran mentor to Tatum and Brown, but the same can't be said about Walker and the front office. He no longer feels wanted.
 

Devizier

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Some part of me thinks that Ainge signed Kemba with the intention of preserving the max slot and trading him all along. It's just that Kemba's knee went out earlier than expected.
 

OurF'ingCity

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Yeah...it's not like him wanting out makes him easier to trade.
Exactly. It's kind of an odd article for that reason. This isn't an example of Kemba having played great for us but now demanding a trade. Him demanding a trade is irrelevant because obviously the Celtics would like nothing more than to get him off the books and it's just a question of finding a trade partner. The part of the article discussing how Kemba wants to be traded to a "winning situation" was comical because he has zero leverage at the moment - the Celtics will trade him to whoever is willing to eat his massive salary for the best return.
 

Cellar-Door

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This feels like an article a guy with basically no sources planned to write a month ago, then decided to keep going on even after Ainge got fired.
The whole thing is based around Ainge.
 

PedroKsBambino

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Yeah, it feels thinly sourced to me so not sure how much credence to give it.

I would say that the "players don't trust Ainge" narrative resonates a bit, most obviously because of IT but we've heard it elsewhere and the "Trader Danny" approach does create a sense that anyone could be dealth. Either way, doesn't likely impact Stevens going forward given that he has his own relationship with all of the players
 

128

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Yeah, it feels thinly sourced to me so not sure how much credence to give it.

I would say that the "players don't trust Ainge" narrative resonates a bit, most obviously because of IT but we've heard it elsewhere and the "Trader Danny" approach does create a sense that anyone could be dealth. Either way, doesn't likely impact Stevens going forward given that he has his own relationship with all of the players
The IT deal looked cut-throat, but was Danny really significantly more heartless/ruthless than other GMs when it came to trades?
 

JCizzle

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On one hand, yes, it probably sucked for players that DA was always willing to move them. On the other hand, by all accounts he was always brutally honest with guys if they asked him about the rumor, which seemed like a relatively rare trait among GMs. Most guys seem to understand it's a business and appreciate the honesty.
 

Cellar-Door

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The IT deal looked cut-throat, but was Danny really significantly more heartless/ruthless than other GMs when it came to trades?
No but he made a big deal about how he was, he built the idea that he would trade anyone at any time into his public image. Some guys liked it, felt like it was being honest. Some guys hate it, since it makes it clear they think of you as a commodity.
 

lexrageorge

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There's a lot in that story that simply does not add up. Why would an permanently injured Kemba demand a trade because a previous GM reportedly made some calls around the league? If those calls were made right after the conclusion of last year's playoffs, why would he demand a trade now? What leverage does Kemba actually have besides none to demand a trade? I know we call the NBA the "player's league", but there are limits.
 

Cellar-Door

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There's a lot in that story that simply does not add up. Why would an permanently injured Kemba demand a trade because a previous GM reportedly made some calls around the league? If those calls were made right after the conclusion of last year's playoffs, why would he demand a trade now? What leverage does Kemba actually have besides none to demand a trade? I know we call the NBA the "player's league", but there are limits.
I mean, none of those things are actually in the story. It's very close to a nothing story. Basically the bulk of it is "Kemba was unhappy that Danny tried to trade him last year" with a sprinkle of "the team is going to try to trade him and Kemba is fine with that". There isn't anything even close to a trade demand in any of those quotes... it's just one "source" saying Kemba was unhappy, and if he's traded he wants to go to a winning situation (not necessarily a contender).

It's a headline trolling for a player who was being discussed by everyone as a potential trade this summer, with a few vaguish quotes thrown in, and using a few paragraphs of an article that was likely written a while ago about how players view Ainge and got shelved when he retired.
 

nighthob

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Yeah, I'm sure Kemba is unhappy that Boston was looking to unload him for salary relief. Just as Boston was unhappy that Walker got injured and his knee finally gave up the ghost. He may want out, but is it really relevant? Boston would love to move him out, the problem is finding someone that wants the deal.
 

lovegtm

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Yeah, I'm sure Kemba is unhappy that Boston was looking to unload him for salary relief. Just as Boston was unhappy that Walker got injured and his knee finally gave up the ghost. He may want out, but is it really relevant? Boston would love to move him out, the problem is finding someone that wants the deal.
"Both Kemba Walker and the Boston Celtics are unhappy that his knee no longer works. My story:"
 

Jimbodandy

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"Both Kemba Walker and the Boston Celtics are unhappy that his knee no longer works. My story:"
Someday we will look back on the traditional media and the newspaper industry with nostalgic appreciation. Watching it flail around for clickbait, trying to stay alive for the last few years is like watching Ali's last couple of fights.
 

brendan f

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This feels like an article a guy with basically no sources planned to write a month ago, then decided to keep going on even after Ainge got fired.
Exactly. It's a completely baseless piece of crap that might as well have appeared in a middle school newspaper. There's no journalism in it whatsoever. It's one thing to quote an unnamed source (which is still awful journalism) but another to merely cite an unnamed source. The article skips from Walker to Ainge to COVID with no direction, and no quotes except from Weiss which is from an article Weiss wrote for The Athletic. So he got zero actual quotes for his "story." This kind of stuff drives me up a wall.
 

Buster Olney the Lonely

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As long as we’re on disreputable sources, this rando site proposes the 16th pick, Carsen Edwards, and TimeLord for Collin Sexton III (with Kemba and Smart likely being moved in separate deals). Anyone on board?

https://sportsnaut.com/blockbuster-nba-draft-scenarios-2021-draft/
Admit it. You only linked to that page because of the Ben Simmons for Wiggins and a first trade.

Sexton to Boston because he doesn’t get along with his teammates seems backwards. Doesn’t Altman keep Sexton and trade everyone else in that scenario?
 

Cellar-Door

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Admit it. You only linked to that page because of the Ben Simmons for Wiggins and a first trade.

Sexton to Boston because he doesn’t get along with his teammates seems backwards. Doesn’t Altman keep Sexton and trade everyone else in that scenario?
If you follow the link rabbithole until you get to the original, it was a local Cleveland guy, and the reason for trading Sexton was they might not want to pay him when he's up, because they'll be paying Allen, and they think he'll get close to max offers and they're not sure they think he's worth that (he is a small, terrible defending guard with some injury issues, so.....)