Keeping the Sky Up. What is going right?

In my lifetime

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I just can't read all these negative posts any longer.

I know it is difficult, but please refrain from posting here: nothing, not much, etc. You have about 5 other threads in which to wax poetically of all that ails the RS.

So in anticipation of a long winning streak, I sure hope the thread gets long.

For starters:
ERod's last start
Eovaldi's last start
Price's last start
Sale's velocity
The bullpen has been betteer than expected
Barnes has stepped up
JD continues to be a hitting machine
X
Mooreland
Benintendi and hopefully his return to the lineup
Even Christian V has done more at the plate than expected
 

oumbi

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And looking towards the farm, the future, perhaps even this season:

Durbin Feltman is doing well in AA ball. In his last three outings he has gone 3 innings, 0 hits, 0 runs, 0 BB, 5 Ks. He threw 36 pitches in those innings, of which 23 were strikes, 8 swinging and 6 looking.

Darwinzon Hernandez is also doing well. In two outings he has gone 5 innings each, a total of 10 innings with and ERA of 0.82. He has 15 Ks (SO9 = 13.5), though 7 walks.
 

Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat

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And looking towards the farm, the future, perhaps even this season:

Durbin Feltman is doing well in AA ball. In his last three outings he has gone 3 innings, 0 hits, 0 runs, 0 BB, 5 Ks. He threw 36 pitches in those innings, of which 23 were strikes, 8 swinging and 6 looking.

Darwinzon Hernandez is also doing well. In two outings he has gone 5 innings each, a total of 10 innings with and ERA of 0.82. He has 15 Ks (SO9 = 13.5), though 7 walks.
And Chavis, who was just called up
 

In my lifetime

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Streak is at 1.
Betts has a good game at the plate
Mitch and Vasquez continue hitting
The bullpen pitches 3 2/3 innings without giving up a hit
 

sean1562

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Does Vaz have a new approach? He has more HRs this year than all of last year.
 

pantsparty

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Devers' 3B defense looks better this year, probably thanks to his focus on conditioning during the offseason.
 

RorschachsMask

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Matt Barnes control has drastically improved. Even tonight he gave up the homer, but he threw 13 of 17 for strikes.

Think tonight pushes his k/9 to somewhere over 18, and he still has only walked 1 guy in 8.1 innings.
 

Byrdbrain

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Does Vaz have a new approach? He has more HRs this year than all of last year.
I did see somewhere that he is going with a more "all or nothing" approach. Many more swings and misses but also more power.
So far it seems like a good trade.

The season is far from over, the team is too good to play this bad all year.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I did see somewhere that he is going with a more "all or nothing" approach. Many more swings and misses but also more power.
So far it seems like a good trade.

The season is far from over, the team is too good to play this bad all year.
Too right. I can't see how two wins, on the road against the first place team in the division, can't be seen as a step in the right direction.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Too right. I can't see how two wins, on the road against the first place team in the division, can't be seen as a step in the right direction.
Definitely a step in the right direction. We’ll see how they deal with the injury to Eovaldi (I’m guessing valezquez).... but first series win against first place team is great, yeah?
 

chawson

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I did see somewhere that he is going with a more "all or nothing" approach. Many more swings and misses but also more power.
So far it seems like a good trade.

The season is far from over, the team is too good to play this bad all year.
Many more swings and misses, yes, but also fewer swings in general? He's whiffing more, but more selective and pulling the ball like crazy (by his standards).

Chase % (FG):
17: 32.2
18: 34.7
19: 25.3

Pull %:
17: 29.1
18: 33.2
19: 47.4

Barrels/PA (Statcast):
17: 2.7
18: 1.9
19: 7.9

He's also had some incredibly bad BABIP luck so far (.206 — career mark .289). That .224/.255/.531 line isn't sparkling, but if he continues this pace over a full season (roughly 450-500 PAs), he'd be a 4-win catcher.
 

Byrdbrain

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Many more swings and misses, yes, but also fewer swings in general? He's whiffing more, but more selective and pulling the ball like crazy (by his standards).

Chase % (FG):
17: 32.2
18: 34.7
19: 25.3

Pull %:
17: 29.1
18: 33.2
19: 47.4

Barrels/PA (Statcast):
17: 2.7
18: 1.9
19: 7.9

He's also had some incredibly bad BABIP luck so far (.206 — career mark .289). That .224/.255/.531 line isn't sparkling, but if he continues this pace over a full season (roughly 450-500 PAs), he'd be a 4-win catcher.
Thanks for doing the research that I should have.
 

donutogre

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Porcello pitched like a functional pitcher last night. Kept the walks down and gave the team a win. Given how the rotation has looked, this is a big step forward.
 

charlieoscar

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The season is far from over, the team is too good to play this bad all year.
There are 141 games left in the regular season. In order for the pitching staff to reach the same number of wins as last season's did, they would need to finish at a .709 rate (115-41). Also, the team would need to have an AVG five points higher, an OBP five points higher, and an SLG ten points higher for the remainder of the season to bring up those marks to last year's team's rates.

While it is possible for the team to turn things around in the remaining games but there is some suggestion in a recent SABR article that even as early as game 16 there is some statistically significant evidence that teams over or below league average at that point remain so. My personal opinion of the article is that the study needs to be expanded (from just 2013-17) and the presentations (graphs) needs to be improved. Also, it would be interesting to look at the data on a team by team basis.
 

Byrdbrain

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There are 141 games left in the regular season. In order for the pitching staff to reach the same number of wins as last season's did, they would need to finish at a .709 rate (115-41). Also, the team would need to have an AVG five points higher, an OBP five points higher, and an SLG ten points higher for the remainder of the season to bring up those marks to last year's team's rates.

While it is possible for the team to turn things around in the remaining games but there is some suggestion in a recent SABR article that even as early as game 16 there is some statistically significant evidence that teams over or below league average at that point remain so. My personal opinion of the article is that the study needs to be expanded (from just 2013-17) and the presentations (graphs) needs to be improved. Also, it would be interesting to look at the data on a team by team basis.
They aren't going to win the same amount of games as they won last year and I never said they would.
I have no doubt that SABR article is generally correct as far as it goes but there are always outliers in any study.
This team won the freaking world series last year for christ sakes.
 

In my lifetime

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3-0 since the start of the thread.
First sweep of the year and now instead of 8 back, the RS sit 5 back.
Price continues to pitch well
The bullpen gives up only 2 hits and one run in 6 innings of work
Moreland goes deep again for his 7th of the year
Benintendi collects a pair of hits
Betts is starting to hit this series
Vasquez had an excellent series all the way around. Even though not hitting for much average, he is getting key hits and showing decent power.
Nice display of small ball in the 11th
Fielding has been much better lately including Devers who has made some nice plays at third.
Now let's see if Sale has found some answers tomorrow
 

Soxfan in Fla

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I know it’s April but you don’t want to fall into too big of a hole. Was important to win this series.
 

The Filthy One

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Worth noting as well that the Sox have played 6 home games so far, compared to 13 for Tampa and 16 for NY. Let’s see where the team is after this next homestand.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I always think shooting for a .500 road record and a .666 home record is a realistic base line. That’s 95 wins for a year.... if they play that percentageforvthevremainder of the season it puts them at 91 wins. Likely good enough for the WC game

Edit- drinking all day and night again
 

Byrdbrain

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That went well I think.

Edit: Not in GoT thread so nevermind.
 

DeadlySplitter

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besides Eovaldi they've been healthy. the Yankees have been extremely unhealthy. the win number for the division is very up in the air right now.

I know it’s April but you don’t want to fall into too big of a hole. Was important to win sweep this series.
fixed. 5 games back is so much more preferable to 7.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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I always think shooting for a .500 road record and a .666 home record is a realistic base line. That’s 95 wins for a year.... if they play that percentageforvthevremainder of the season it puts them at 91 wins. Likely good enough for the WC game

Edit- drinking all day and night again
That's an interesting metric you've got there
 

charlieoscar

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That's an interesting metric you've got there
Assuming the comment included Sunday's game, then it seems to be reasonably accurate as the Red Sox have 75 home games (two-thirds of 75 = 50) and 65 road games (half of 65 = 32.5) remaining.
50 + 32.5 + the 9 wins they already have is 91.5.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Assuming the comment included Sunday's game, then it seems to be reasonably accurate as the Red Sox have 75 home games (two-thirds of 75 = 50) and 65 road games (half of 65 = 32.5) remaining.
50 + 32.5 + the 9 wins they already have is 91.5.
Thanks. I thought I was going crazy
 

chawson

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Some interesting peripheral numbers from Mitch Moreland so far (from Statcast):

Zone Contact %:
17: 83.1
18: 81.8
19: 75.9

Chase %:
17: 27.3
18: 24.9
19: 23.8

Hard Hit %:
17: 36.3
18: 44.1
19: 52.8

Pull % / Oppo %:
17: 32.6 / 25.2
18: 38.1 / 22.8
19: 49.1 / 11.3

Shift (MLB rank):
17: 76.8 (5th)
18: 68 (22nd)
19: 82.4 (12th)

Moreland has been one of the most shifted-on guys in the league for awhile. Some of those guys (defined here as LHH shifted on in >50 percent of PA) I'm seeing no appreciable difference in approach from previous years, but others seem to be trying different strategies this year.

One group seems to be trying to beat the shift by going to the opposite field more (Rizzo, Schwarber, Muncy, Shaw, Freeman, Morales vs. RHP, Jose Ramirez vs. RHP, Bird, Bruce, Winker, Duda, Alex Gordon, Granderson). For the most part, that strategy hasn't worked especially well. (Freeman is an exception, though his power numbers are down. It's harder to tell what's up with Gordon).

The other group has seemed to ditch the strategy of going the other way in favor of trying to absolutely murder the ball to right. Among those, a good number of them have seen increases in strikeout rate that negate the gains they're seeing from hitting the ball harder (Odor, Thames, Matt Adams, Chris Davis).

But a third group — or a subset of the second group — has done the same while keeping their K rates stable. These guys — Joey Gallo, Joc Pederson, Cody Bellinger, Omar Narvaez, Tommy La Stella, Eddie Rosario, and Mitch Moreland — are having excellent Aprils. I can't really tell if it's a true difference in approach or if he's just on one of his hot streaks (and there's probably more going on than what I can see here), but Moreland seems to be a guy with enough plate discipline to sustain a swing-for-the-fences approach. It's led to a few more whiffs, but he's also chasing and getting fooled a lot less.
 

charlieoscar

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The minor leagues exist for the development of players so I don't believe W/L records matter. If there were 1-2 top 100 prospects on each team, the Sox would have a great farm system.
When the minor league teams are all producing winning percentages like those, you wonder just how many prospects they have. And you also have players who look good at lower levels who don't make the step up. One of the club's big problems has been they haven't been able to develop pitchers for a number of years.
 

CanvasAlley

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Some interesting peripheral numbers from Mitch Moreland so far (from Statcast):

But a third group — or a subset of the second group — has done the same while keeping their K rates stable. These guys — Joey Gallo, Joc Pederson, Cody Bellinger, Omar Narvaez, Tommy La Stella, Eddie Rosario, and Mitch Moreland — are having excellent Aprils. I can't really tell if it's a true difference in approach or if he's just on one of his hot streaks (and there's probably more going on than what I can see here), but Moreland seems to be a guy with enough plate discipline to sustain a swing-for-the-fences approach. It's led to a few more whiffs, but he's also chasing and getting fooled a lot less.
This is an excellent analysis of Mitch Moreland and wonder if his new approach reflects some degree of hitting mentorship JDM is providing this team.