I don't post sources for rumors but again, some chatter this morning that the Knicks may be in talks to trade Mitchell Robinson for Trey Murphy
KAT to Knicks for Randle, DiVincenzo, 1st
- Thread starter Murderer's Crow
- Start date
I find it easy to believe the Knicks and their fans would like to do that and pretty hard to believe Pelicans would be interested.
But as always....I could be wrong!
But as always....I could be wrong!
Not that it matters, but Robinson played high school ball in NO for the coach that he moved up to New York last season. Maybe the local boy makes good angle is appealing to the Pelicans?
All of this is why I don't think the Knicks will seriously shop Mitchell Robinson, unless they get an equally good defensive center coming back for (somehow) less money. Certainly not for 6'8" wing Trey Murphy. They might be able to get away with playing KAT at center for periods of time, especially in the regular season, but they really need to be able to make him into a defender of wings without a ton of help responsibilities if they're going to reach their potential as a team. And to do that, they need an honest-to-god all-beef center in the middle.
The Pelicans are desperate for a center -- Daniel Theis is currently penciled in as their starter. They would also love to get Brandon Ingram somewhere else if they can get any value in return. I would not be shocked if some kind of crazy 6-team trade (or multiple standalone trades) is brewing where a bunch of guys and salaries go all over the place in order to get the KAT deal done while also getting the Pels (and maybe also the Knicks) a C. Also, it seems like Miami would happily move Jimmy Butler, so that's another piece that can be thrown into the hopper.
I could see the Knicks believing that someone Trey Murphy's size could be their defensive anchor, IF that guy was a legitimate rim protector against everyone else's penetration.
Sort of like Aaron Gordon functions next to Jokic in Denver. I think Joker is a better defender than KAT, because his awareness is way better, he takes up a little more space when he uses that to get to spots, and he's a better rebounder, but otherwise they have similar weaknesses).
KAT is fine guarding actual centers who are trying to score themselves; he does well covering Jokic, he's been alright against Embiid, etc. He just can't stop anyone else from attacking the rim, and he's not switchable (the Wolves scram him OUT of a lot of stuff).
Watching the Wolves pre-Rudy, I always thought the platonic ideal of a defensive partner for KAT was prime Josh Smith, a smaller guy who can be the rim-protecting anchor of a good defense (granted, he was also playing next to young Horford, so maybe Smoove's impact there was a little overstated). But I also LOVED Smoove's game; even offensively, the idea of a rim-attacker and passing-playmaker like Smith was at his best would fit well with KAT, too. So I might overstate that ideal fit in my head.
I don't know enough about Murphy defensively to know if he could fill that Aaron Gordon role inside, but I'm skeptical.
Yeah---but you KNOW you aren't getting a center until January if you deal for Robinson, and you don't really know when/if you get a healthy one after that and for how long. And I like Robinson, but he's a fit on a team as a second big far moreso than one that is desparate for size, imo. That is not to disagree they need size; I'm sure they'd like to move Ingram for it, and also expect the market has disappointed them on Ingram's value.
Hey---I could be wrong, but I think NOLA views Trey Murphy as a real building block given his all-around game and in particular his shooting next to Zion. So I'd guess they are pretty eager to keep him, and would want a premium to deal him not a gamble like Robinson. They are in an interesting spot---they have too many wing-types and that's pretty unique situation league-wise. So anything is possible, but this one would really surprise me at least absent some other value coming to them (and Knicks are pretty pick-poor at this point)
I don't think Murphy is a rim protector at all - he's a solid, not exceptional, wing defender and a plus or plus-plus shooter. I think NOLA views him as a Derrick White-like piece, just as a wing. Rightly or wrongly
I don't see how it gets done cap-wise. Maybe there's some crazy multi-team deal that could make it work initially but Murphy's rookie deal is expiring and it would be completely shocking if Murphy didn't get a new deal in the $25M-$30M range. Even with Brunson's "discount," that a ton of money between KAT, Brunson, OG, Bridges (who is looking for an extension next summer), and Murphy. I think they'd be way over the 2nd apron for years.
If you’re talking Trey Murphy you are speaking my language. One of the most underrated and fly under the radar guys in the league the last two seasons. I’d find it hard to imagine them moving him.
Agree with you. Murphy is underrated by the public but NBA front offices know how good he is. He's one of the most valuable assets that NO has. If they put him on the open market, they'd get a lot more than Mitchell Robinson.
Not that either team would do it but PP and a swaggle of Cs draft picks would work for Murphy. That would be a hoot.
That comment from Perk was
, he said since these teams are making moves like crazy and trying to acquire pieces to reshape their roster, that means they are not scared of the celtics lmao! Perk literally has some of the most moronic takes from all the NBA yappers out there!
This! I think Murphy could be the third guy on a very good team and he is only getting better. I can't imagine him being traded at all, never mind for an injured center.
Agreed. I can't imagine the Knicks are getting Trey Murphy for the oft-injured MRob (unless there is a fistful of picks/swaps)
MRob is close to being salary at this point (much like TimeLord last summer).
Trey Murphy is a very valuable player at $5.1MM
Maybe NOLA/Wolves build something around Ingram for Julius Randle+
If I'm the Wolves, something like Randle + filler + 2031 1st + DET protected first for Ingram, with the intent to pay Ingram a lot but not the max, makes a lot of sense.
You lock in your secondary playmaker of the future alongside Ant, and also help your thinness at the wing long-term. Maybe extend Rudy at lower AAV.
If you're an Ant believer, Ant + Ingram + Rudy + DDV + Naz is a really, really strong core. That's a title contender if Ant makes a further leap.
I’m not sure Ingram is any better than Randle. And even if so I’m not giving up Randle and 2 firsts to get him only to have to max him out next year. Biggest reason for this trade was to give Minnesota some flexibility moving forward, no way they throw that plus assets away for Ingram.
I think the deal was made, by the Wolves, to balance out the lineup (and contract flexibility). I'm not sure of the trade costs (protected firsts/swaps ), but I think love was just trying to build a trade around Randle/Ingram
There were games last year that KAT didn't close and they used Naz Reid in his place.
You can't be paying a guy $50M and he's not closing.
Wolves fans love Naz Reid, they needed a starting spot & 30+mpg for him
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Ingram makes some sense for MIN basketball-wise but I don't think he fits salary-wise. They have ANT on a max; Gobert on a near-Max, McDaniels at $30M, and Reid needs more money. It'll be interesting to see if they pay Randle his extension or just let him walk - they can't afford to pay Ingram without (I suppose) letting Gobert walk. And I don't MIN has owners who can stomach hundreds of millions of luxury tax payments year after year.
Yea. I'm having a hard enough time figuring out what Boston will be doing next season. Have zero feel on the Wolve's next year's business, especially with ARod/Lore lurking.
Trading for Gobert accelerated everything before Ant even hit his prime.
The deal stands to save the Wolves over $26m in payroll and luxury tax payments.
Agreed---I think dumping KAT's immediately-awful contract was a big reason they did this deal. They don't want to replace him with another gigantic contract for a second/third tier star even it's a better fitting one.
My guess is they aren't sure yet what they'll do with Randle and are waiting to see how the fit is. It COULD work pretty well, or not well at all.
Well, I've already challenged a lot of the hot takes on KAT, adn would do the same on the notion that the trade didn't improve the Knicks at all. But, hey, time will tell on that -- should be fun.
That said, I'd be curious about the claim that Naz regularly closed games over KAT. The only time I recall that was due to foul trouble.
That said, I'd be curious about the claim that Naz regularly closed games over KAT. The only time I recall that was due to foul trouble.
Naz didn't regularly close games over KAT but it did happen in the playoffs & it was odd. They had 3 good BIGs for 2 spots.
Some good coverage on the Wolves here about their CAP plight
https://www.minnpost.com/sports/2024/09/breaking-down-the-minnesota-timberwolves-karl-anthony-towns-trade/
Who made the claim on Naz closing out games over KAT? I hope it was a media person than someone here. This simply did not happen “regularly” as the only time I recall was the playoff game against Dallas when Towns was horrific that night while Naz, iirc, had it going. Now he was often situationally substituted in the final minute of close games but that was with Slo-Mo replacing him for defense. This did occur regularly but certainly not “benched.”
Didn't actually say "regularly" -- that may have been an unfair imputation on my part. But "can't be paying a guy $50M and have him not be closing" does make it sound like a thing. edit: I do recall the playoff game to which Ben Hogan refers. Pretty sure that was more of a one-off? But not 100% sure...
That said, it is true Wolves fans love Naz and he was impressive last year, at least offensively.
That's just this year. It will be more in future years but we don't know until we figure out what MIN does with Randle.
The Wolves were bitten BADLY by going all in and deciding to join the upper tier of WC payroll teams JUST before the new CBA with its higher tax penalties was negotiated.
I think they might have been OK in the previous cap environment paying too much for KAT’s late prime, overlapping him with Rudy at the max until 25-26 and Ant at the start of his max those two years, and still paying their other guys.
But then the repeater tax rates went up MUCH more, Glen Taylor decided to throw the ownership situation into legal chaos, and as a cherry on top, Ant ascended fully before his extension started, making All-NBA last year and adding $40m to his rookie-scale extension via Designated Player acceleration to the 7-9 Year max (I don’t think the 2nd apron stuff matters that much to them, but the tax payments in a year or two are untenable for a mid-market team with an old arena).
At this point, I think it’s an open question whether they’ll even consider re-signing Randle at a slightly lower number, or trading him for someone making less annually over more years, or if they’ll decide that they just need to let him walk, and use the savings to re-sign Naz and probably NAW.
Yeah that was my point in that this wasn’t about basketball and that it was primarily financial. Naz helped make it possible as did the short term positional replacement in Randle. I don’t expect Randle to be there more than a year.
It happened a handful of times last year, IIRC, but not more than that, amd KAT handled it gracefully.
He seemed really sincere about his willingness to sacrifice his ego for the team, first turning over the #1 option reins to Ant without complaint (and frankly maybe a year before Ant had fully earned it), then moving to the 4 and trying really hard to be a ball-mover and team guy to accommodate Rudy, and then being willing to let the former undrafted backup finish games ahead of him on occasion, when Naz had it rolling.
I think Randle fit is potentially enough worse than KAT’s, and Rudy+Naz have been good enough together, that’s it’s much more likely in the new alignment, though, and Randle is a 3-time All-star outsider in a contract year. We’ll see if he’s as gracious about not closing at least some games (if not most; Reid is really good, and the Rudy fit and added spacing is real) as KAT was.
Funny - the deal is being held up (in all likelihood) because the NYK have to buy out
Duane Washington Jr. from Belgrade’s Partizan Mozzart Bet in order to sign him to a non-minimum contract to trade him to CHA. The paperwork is being held up because FIBA doesn’t work weekends!
Washington is getting free money; will likely get waived; and if so, he will likely go back to Partizan. And Partizan gets the buyout $ - reportedly $850K - for signing paperwork. What a deal!
https://frontofficesports.com/kat-knicks-wolves-randle-serbia/
Duane Washington Jr. from Belgrade’s Partizan Mozzart Bet in order to sign him to a non-minimum contract to trade him to CHA. The paperwork is being held up because FIBA doesn’t work weekends!
Washington is getting free money; will likely get waived; and if so, he will likely go back to Partizan. And Partizan gets the buyout $ - reportedly $850K - for signing paperwork. What a deal!
https://frontofficesports.com/kat-knicks-wolves-randle-serbia/
I'm just imagining Washington trying to explain this to his Partizan teammates, that he has to fly to the States for a few days, mostly to take a (farcical) physical, before coming back and acting like nothing just happened. All for reasons that rival medieval debates about religious canon in how ludicrously esoteric they are.
Guessing he's buying team dinners for a little while after that.
Guessing he's buying team dinners for a little while after that.
This reminds of pre-Finals, when everyone was competing to see who could overpay the most for Luka+Kyrie stock:
View: https://twitter.com/espnnba/status/1840837342854013223?s=46
View: https://twitter.com/espnnba/status/1840837342854013223?s=46
Zach Lowe has to be relieved he doesn't have to go full Simmons and be a C's defender through all this. Funny enough, he was the one pumping the Celtics' tires last week and coincidentally(?) ESPN is like 'We can't have that when the Knicks are the flavor of the moment.'
Bobby Marks is a pretty sharp guy; he understood why Lowe was fired and what ESPN is looking for from its commentators...
ESPN really missed a good moment to fire the confetti guns when Bobby made that announcement.
An opening night Knicks win and ESPN will be rolling with Marks for a few months
An opening night Knicks win and ESPN will be rolling with Marks for a few months
It isn't like there is some other team who is lead with the glaring example of the biggest mistake he has ever made in professional career.
Yeah, I think I was a bit too sanguine on the trade for the Knicks. I still like it for them but it is a risk because KAT's contract is huge. I also think Thibs is literally the worst coach in the league for this offense, and because they have no depth, he's likely going to play their top 6 into the ground. But their ceiling is higher, and--if they play to their peak talent-- they are legit contenders now. Let's see how things shake out with Robinson and potential depth moves.
I get that BPM is flawed. You weren't annoying; you made fair points. I certainly wouldn't try to argue KAT is a good defender, just that I think his shortcomings are overstated, especially in light of how gifted he is offensively. He's pretty much exactly what one would want offensively in.a modern center.
Agreed. I would venture further to say I doubt they'll resign him. I think a lot of the trade was about getting off the KAT contract so they can build around ANT. The DD contract was also very good value.
KAT is a great offensive center, if anything probably underrated in that regard, even with 4 AS selections and 2 all-NBA, with the vast majority of his value coming on offense.
On defense, though, I think the baseline requirement at center, from a team-defense perspective, is much higher than any other position in the NBA.
It's very, very hard to "hide' a center defensively, at least without a rare and elite help-defensive/rim-protecting anchor that naturally plays a smaller position (again, the Aaron Gordon role). So even a mediocre defender at center puts an absolute ceiling on a team that falls short of true contender status (and I think "mediocre defensively" would be a charitable description/level for KAT).
KAT can be fine at center for a solid regular season team (the Wolves got up to 12th in 2022), but scheming hard around your center to get to "basically league average", and thus having zero margin for error or upside in a playoff context, means IMO that you have a likely-insurmountable problem as a playoff team. The Knicks have ways around that (like playing KAT at 4 next to Robinson), but the options for successfully "figuring it out" aren't simple, and may not exist on the current roster.
Yeah, Randle’s highest and best use is putting up 25 a night for a bad team. That’s only going to be more true as he enters his 30s. I predict he’ll be a good soldier in Minnesota this season, then get a big contract from a lottery team.
Ridiculous value. Top 5 most valuable in the league probably (excluding rookie scale guys).
Interesting that NYK could get rights to a first round draft pick - essentially a draft pick - back in this deal. I guess they had other teams who were interested in being the third team. Nnaji plays overseas and will be there for a while. CHA gets two players who will immediately be released - Charlie Brown Jr., and Duane Washington - DaQuan Jeffries, a 2025 second-round selection that's the least favorable of the Nuggets or 76ers via the Timberwolves, a 2026 second-round pick from the Warriors via the Knicks, a 2031 second-round selection from New York, and $7.2 million in cash.
If anyone is interested, here is a YT video breaking down the mechanics of the trade. Didn't get all the way through but at least in the first 1/2 everything matches what I've been seeing.
Two factoids that may be interesting to no one else. (1) This trade could not have been done during the regular season because NYK couldn't sign and trade these guys during regular season (plus they wouldn't have had the roster spots to do so) and (ii) Washington and Brown got $59K over the NBA's minimum salaries (to circumvent the prohibition against aggregating minimum contracts.
View: https://youtu.be/B4e2YbnmO_k?si=lomHGoyaFl9Cnl36
Knicks fans will meltdown when Bridges, Brunson, and KAT all play 40+ minutes on opening night.
ALSO the Knicks getting the 31st pick sounds much better than the Knicks receiving a 2nd rounder that has never stepped on an NBA floor (while Charlotte receives 3 future 2nd-round picks)
ALSO the Knicks getting the 31st pick sounds much better than the Knicks receiving a 2nd rounder that has never stepped on an NBA floor (while Charlotte receives 3 future 2nd-round picks)
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Apparently Nnaji hurt his back recently. He's an athletic, rim-running center who didn't play a lot last year. He's a year away from being a year away, at the very least.
It's a flyer, but if you take enough flyers, one hit makes it all worthwhile.
More info from Reddit here: https://www.reddit.com/r/NYKnicks/comments/1fu32fy/charlotte_is_also_trading_james_nnaji_the_no_31/?sort=new
From Sam Quinn on X:
Lemme explain this in more depth for the cap nerds out there:
The Knicks are locked below the second apron this season. They've aggregated salaries through trade. So obviously, no second apron issues in 2024-25.
The Knicks are at $194.4 million in salaries owed for the 2025-26 season going to nine players. The projected 10% apron rise would take the second apron figure from $188.9 million this year to $207.8 million next year. Basically, that means the Knicks would have $13.4 million to fill those last five or six spots. Entirely doable. They can duck the second apron in the 2025-26 season.
This is the important detail: once you've gone above the second apron once, you're allowed to go above it one more time in the next four seasons without penalty. If you go above a second time in that four-year period (or, more simply, three out of five years) you have a first-round pick drop to No. 30 overall. That pick is the pick seven years out from the first year you went above the second apron. What this is probably going to mean in practice is that teams are going to try to a) delay their second apron clocks as long as possible and b) go above for two years and then duck below to avoid the draft penalty.
So basically, the Knicks would avoid the second-apron in 2024-25 and 2025-26. Then they would plan for 2026-27 and 2027-28 to be their above the second apron years. Not coincidentally, the 2026-27 season is when the Bridges extension would start. For all of this to work, the Knicks needed to trade for someone who would be cheap for the next two years. Bridges obviously qualifies.
And then, after the 2027-28 season, the roster basically hits a reset period. KAT expires. Hart has a team option for 27-28, so he either expires or he would've expired a year earlier. Brunson and Anunoby have player options. So by the summer of 2028, you'll have had the team together four years. You'll likely want to get below the second apron to avoid the draft penalty. However, you'll have so many contracts expiring that you'll have flexibility to maneuver and figure out who you need to prioritize keeping. Of course, by the summer of 2028, the entire Brunson/Hart/KAT/OG/Bridges core will be in its 30's, so a bunch can change by then.
Two people to watch here outside of that five-man core are Mitchell Robinson and Deuce McBride. Mitch has two years left. If they want to trade him, I'd say it's important to trade him for someone who either a) is at a similar salary level or b) isn't a free agent until 2026 or later. The last thing you want is to trade him for a 2025 free agent who you'd then have to overpay next summer. That could force you to start your second apron clock a year early. As for McBride, he's making peanuts these next three years. In 2027 he's gonna want to get paid. Doing so obviously creates post-2028 complications because the goal will be ducking the second apron then. Without knowing what kind of player he'll be in three years, though, we can't really say what sort of contract he'd be looking at.
So that is the long version of "the Knicks are really well-positioned financially." They can keep this team together for four years. That's an eternity in the modern NBA. They've obviously spent most of their maneuverability. They're not going to have very much room to make changes to this group. But if this team is good enough, it's going to have a long runway.
Lemme explain this in more depth for the cap nerds out there:
The Knicks are locked below the second apron this season. They've aggregated salaries through trade. So obviously, no second apron issues in 2024-25.
The Knicks are at $194.4 million in salaries owed for the 2025-26 season going to nine players. The projected 10% apron rise would take the second apron figure from $188.9 million this year to $207.8 million next year. Basically, that means the Knicks would have $13.4 million to fill those last five or six spots. Entirely doable. They can duck the second apron in the 2025-26 season.
This is the important detail: once you've gone above the second apron once, you're allowed to go above it one more time in the next four seasons without penalty. If you go above a second time in that four-year period (or, more simply, three out of five years) you have a first-round pick drop to No. 30 overall. That pick is the pick seven years out from the first year you went above the second apron. What this is probably going to mean in practice is that teams are going to try to a) delay their second apron clocks as long as possible and b) go above for two years and then duck below to avoid the draft penalty.
So basically, the Knicks would avoid the second-apron in 2024-25 and 2025-26. Then they would plan for 2026-27 and 2027-28 to be their above the second apron years. Not coincidentally, the 2026-27 season is when the Bridges extension would start. For all of this to work, the Knicks needed to trade for someone who would be cheap for the next two years. Bridges obviously qualifies.
And then, after the 2027-28 season, the roster basically hits a reset period. KAT expires. Hart has a team option for 27-28, so he either expires or he would've expired a year earlier. Brunson and Anunoby have player options. So by the summer of 2028, you'll have had the team together four years. You'll likely want to get below the second apron to avoid the draft penalty. However, you'll have so many contracts expiring that you'll have flexibility to maneuver and figure out who you need to prioritize keeping. Of course, by the summer of 2028, the entire Brunson/Hart/KAT/OG/Bridges core will be in its 30's, so a bunch can change by then.
Two people to watch here outside of that five-man core are Mitchell Robinson and Deuce McBride. Mitch has two years left. If they want to trade him, I'd say it's important to trade him for someone who either a) is at a similar salary level or b) isn't a free agent until 2026 or later. The last thing you want is to trade him for a 2025 free agent who you'd then have to overpay next summer. That could force you to start your second apron clock a year early. As for McBride, he's making peanuts these next three years. In 2027 he's gonna want to get paid. Doing so obviously creates post-2028 complications because the goal will be ducking the second apron then. Without knowing what kind of player he'll be in three years, though, we can't really say what sort of contract he'd be looking at.
So that is the long version of "the Knicks are really well-positioned financially." They can keep this team together for four years. That's an eternity in the modern NBA. They've obviously spent most of their maneuverability. They're not going to have very much room to make changes to this group. But if this team is good enough, it's going to have a long runway.
Is the first round pick drop to 30 really a big deal for teams that are expected to have a pick in the 25+ range anyway?
That was kind of my thought...I guess 7yrs out from the first time you go over the 2nd apron may give teams pause (much like the '28 Celtic/Spur pick swap)
If I'm the Knicks, move MRob for a vet WING or split his salary in two (for a WING + BIG).
They could use one of those minimums ($13.4 million to fill those last five or six spots) on a bench BIG to go along with Precious + Sims behind KAT.
Deuce McBride is a keeper.
Wouldn't be shocked if Lonnie Walker ends up a Knick on a minimum deal (IMO Brad should just move Walsh & sign LW3)
Credit to the Knicks/Thibs who have made 2nds/late picks part of their scrappy brand:
Brunson
Hart (#30)
MRob
McBride
Sims
KBD
Is Nnaji related to Denver's Nnaji? (who immediately regretted that extension)
It is a draft pick at the end of tradability not that year.
Seven years out your pick will become untradeable and pushed to the back of the draft. It is a really stupid rule.