KAT to Knicks for Randle, DiVincenzo, 1st

[mauf]

I think it will be hard to move Randle to the bench, given his profile and likely associated ego.

But that doesn’t stop the Wolves from staggering Ant and Randle so that one of them is always on the floor, with White Donte and Naz in as many of the minutes where they’re not together as possible (and especially the Randle minutes) to increase the spacing.

That makes it easier to use Randle’s shot creation, and avoids the cramped Rudy/Randle/McDaniels (who is getting better as a shooter, but not there yet consistently) lineup around Ant.

EDIT: The question would then come down to who closes, and whether Finch can get away with keeping Randle on the bench in a lot of THOSE spots. He got a ton of buy-in to keep Naz out there in place of Rudy or KAT in closing spots, but that may be harder with Randle, coming in from the outside, in a contract year.

I don’t think Randle is good enough to undermine a contending team because he’s unhappy with his role without completely tanking his market value. The lottery team that’s going to give him a bag next summer to put up 25 points a night for a crappy team wants someone who’s going to model good behavior for the young guys who actually might be part of that franchise’s next good team.

As a three-time All-Star, Randle will be in the starting five for Minnesota and get as many minutes as he can handle, but if he’s not on the floor at crunch time, he’ll grin and bear it. Too much money at stake not to.

 

[TomRicardo]

This deal may work out. But it might not.

Minnesota had to do this in the long term and was probably better off with Randle and DVD than Ingram and whoever NOLA was offering.

I would paid any money to see Thibs face when he was told. His soul probably left his body. "Isn' there literally any other centers available?"

 

[Auger34]

I was aiming to be directly aggressive as opposed to passive aggressive. I also think we should have more analysis, I was saying I think that particular model of analysis is not informative.

If you were aiming to be directly aggressive you did a shitty job of it. Since apparently at least two people who you were attempting to direct this towards didn’t even realize.

And, BTW, your analysis didn’t offer anything more than the “fear” talk did. In fact, you basically just parroted what me and @benhogan said in earlier posts

IMO, you may not like the fear line of thinking but when you are “aggressive” about normal lines of posting the burden of proof is on you to bring more to the table than you did.

I am normally a fan of your posts but I think you were just a dick here

EDIT: you actually came to the EXACT conclusion that we came to earlier. So…I am not sure why you were attempting to accomplish?

 

[Auger34]

Agreed. This place would be a lot better with fewer passive-aggressive insults & more basketball analysis/opinions.

As far as saying "fear" I read that as a "matchup problem" since that's what drives the NBA

The Knicks with KAT "matchup" better against the majority of NBA teams
The Celtics less so. Boston matches up well with KAT


Yea, this is exactly what I was getting at.

Ultimately I believe Randle to Minny is temporary and just a prelude to another trade by Feb.

You are 100000% correct with your perception of what I meant by fear. Ithought that was obvious but I will be more direct next time I guess

 

[slamminsammya]

If you were aiming to be directly aggressive you did a shitty job of it. Since apparently at least two people who you were attempting to direct this towards didn’t even realize.

And, BTW, your analysis didn’t offer anything more than the “fear” talk did. In fact, you basically just parroted what me and @benhogan said in earlier posts

IMO, you may not like the fear line of thinking but when you are “aggressive” about normal lines of posting the burden of proof is on you to bring more to the table than you did.

I am normally a fan of your posts but I think you were just a dick here

EDIT: you actually came to the EXACT conclusion that we came to earlier. So…I am not sure why you were attempting to accomplish?

Apologies. It was a confluence of: I am allergic to psychobabble sports analysis + I am prone to being a dick.

 

[InstaFace]

Bottom line to me…

Is anyone more scared of the Knicks now than they were before the trade? IMO, the answer is a resounding no

Ehhh, I dunno, I think they're incrementally better than they were before the trade, in ways that would matter in a Celtics series. Does this take them from "clearly never going to beat a healthy Celtics team" to "series toss-up"? No. But it does raise the chances of an upset vs a healthy Cs team from "once in a blue moon" to somewhere north of that (how far north? let's watch some regular season first). The direction of the scared-ness here is clearly upward, not flat, even if the magnitude of the change is very much TBD.

And that's just from a Celtics perspective. From a Bucks perspective, they're a much bigger matchup nightmare now, because whether you put Brook Lopez on KAT or you spend your Giannis to stop him (instead of letting him roam off a weaker-shooting wing to help more), there are obvious counters available to Thibs that open up more offensive options. From a Pacers perspective, yeah you can run on KAT a bit more, but transition is still only ~20% of the game, for the other 80% you're having to keep Myles Turner glued to him, again hurting your ability to defend everyone else's drives. Is Philly more scared of them now? Probably only slightly. But I think the Knicks' odds of beating most non-Celtics teams just went up decently, and their odds of beating them in fewer games and thereby getting more playoff rest went up likewise.

I'll say this: It's getting increasingly hard to articulate what the Knicks' playoff weaknesses are. Oh, it's Brunson's defense? He's at a -0.7 D-DPM, worse than Kyrie bad (-0.2), but clearly not Trae Young bad, he's in the same range as Payton Pritchard, D'Angelo Russell, Coby White, Terry Rozier - guys who aren't plus defenders but really aren't going to kill you out there. Mitchell Robinson can't make outside shots? Sure, but the rest of the roster can. It's not like Time Lord's shooting placed a limitation on us 2.5 years ago. The Knicks really don't have a lot of holes in their roster right now, not in the playoff-rotation portion of it anyway. They were deeper pre-trade, with DiVincenzo, but they are still a deep roster even without him.

 

[Euclis20]

Ehhh, I dunno, I think they're incrementally better than they were before the trade, in ways that would matter in a Celtics series. Does this take them from "clearly never going to beat a healthy Celtics team" to "series toss-up"? No. But it does raise the chances of an upset vs a healthy Cs team from "once in a blue moon" to somewhere north of that (how far north? let's watch some regular season first). The direction of the scared-ness here is clearly upward, not flat, even if the magnitude of the change is very much TBD.

And that's just from a Celtics perspective. From a Bucks perspective, they're a much bigger matchup nightmare now, because whether you put Brook Lopez on KAT or you spend your Giannis to stop him (instead of letting him roam off a weaker-shooting wing to help more), there are obvious counters available to Thibs that open up more offensive options. From a Pacers perspective, yeah you can run on KAT a bit more, but transition is still only ~20% of the game, for the other 80% you're having to keep Myles Turner glued to him, again hurting your ability to defend everyone else's drives. Is Philly more scared of them now? Probably only slightly. But I think the Knicks' odds of beating most non-Celtics teams just went up decently, and their odds of beating them in fewer games and thereby getting more playoff rest went up likewise.

I'll say this: It's getting increasingly hard to articulate what the Knicks' playoff weaknesses are. Oh, it's Brunson's defense? He's at a -0.7 D-DPM, worse than Kyrie bad (-0.2), but clearly not Trae Young bad, he's in the same range as Payton Pritchard, D'Angelo Russell, Coby White, Terry Rozier - guys who aren't plus defenders but really aren't going to kill you out there. Mitchell Robinson can't make outside shots? Sure, but the rest of the roster can. It's not like Time Lord's shooting placed a limitation on us 2.5 years ago. The Knicks really don't have a lot of holes in their roster right now, not in the playoff-rotation portion of it anyway. They were deeper pre-trade, with DiVincenzo, but they are still a deep roster even without him.

Agreed that Brunson's defense isn't Trae Young bad (or Haliburton/Lillard level either), but comparing him to guys like Pritchard/DAR/White/Rozier is ignoring the fact that those guys all carry a much smaller offensive load, and only Pritchard has gone on to win it all (while playing just 12 mpg in the finals, compared with the 40+ Brunson will have to play going deep into the playoffs). I think he's got a similar overall defensive impact as Luka - far more effort and better conditioning, but he's just so much smaller. Brunson is excellent at drawing charges, but if we're looking at this from a Celtics perspective, it's very easy to imagine Brown/Tatum/KP posting him up getting easy looks in the paint over him all series long (the only offensive option that really wasn't available against Luka). Nobody is without flaws (not even Boston, our playoff center rotation is once again either injured or ancient), but let's not pretend that Brunson's defense isn't potentially a major problem that could absolutely sink them if they get out of the 2nd round for the first time since Ewing.

 

[benhogan]

The good news for the Knicks is their 8-man rotation (Brunson, KAT, Hart, Bridges, OG, MRob, Deuce, Precious) is all under 30.

The bad news is OG, KAT, MRob have struggled to stay healthy over the last 4-5 seasons. This team lacks depth esp. at WING, and Thibs has a minutes-heavy reputation. They should chase Lonnie Walker if he doesn't make the Celtics roster. I could see plenty of tankers letting decent veterans go during the season when the Knicks need bodies.

Otherwise, this feels like the 2nd best team in the EC (I'm a 76er denier). When healthy, they probably have the 3rd-4th best starting/closing 5; very balanced.

 

[BaseballJones]

I mean, barring catastrophe, the Knicks should be really good. That kind of talent all on one team is more likely than not to produce very good results. They'll figure a bunch of stuff out. I'd still favor Boston over them if everyone is healthy but that looks like a pretty good matchup on paper.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

The bad news is OG, KAT, MRob have struggled to stay healthy over the last 4-5 seasons. This team lacks depth esp. at WING, and Thibs has a minutes-heavy reputation. They should chase Lonnie Walker if he doesn't make the Celtics roster. I could see plenty of tankers letting decent veterans go during the season when the Knicks need bodies.

I mentioned upthread that assuming the NYK completes the deal without trading any rotation players (and giving unexpected pay days to obscure players like Charlie Brown - isn't the NBA great!), they are currently at 12 roster players and just over $3M under the 2nd apron where they are hard-capped. They have 2 weeks into the regular seasonto get to 14 players. One of the 2 extra players has to be a promotion of one of their 2-way contracts. They have room for one vet. I don't think they will wait around to see what Walker will do.

Also, they won't be able to add a 15th player without getting another team to take a player.

However, there are reports that NYK are fielding and listening to offers on MRob.

View: https://twitter.com/krispursiainen/status/1840189610275594710?s=46

 

[brendan f]

I dunno. Jrue Holiday was a huge win. This deal isn't on that level. A good portion of NYK's success last year was their rebounding and KAT doesn't do that. Also, as mentioned upthread, his defense and contract make me wonder if this was the best use of Randle as an asset or whether NYK pulled the trigger because they didn't want to play Sims at the 5 for significant minutes.

Plus, if this was such a home run, I would have thought NYK could have done this a couple of months ago.

It all depends on fit/chemistry. Will be fascinating to see how it does or does not come together.

It's a much different team now. The team they had last year always had a ceiling, and it wasn't championship-caliber. Granted they had injuries, but their offense in the playoffs consisted of Brunson trying to do everything. Now they can spread the floor in a lot of ways. I think their biggest question is their coach, who is not exactly someone I would call an offensive innovator, or very creative.

As for their rebounding, they have a bunch of guys who are solid for their position. I don't think it should be seen as a glaring weakness, and if it is then their offensive production should more than make up for it.

I also don't see KAT as some huge defensive liability. He has his share of mental errors and he shouldn't be guarding smaller guys in space, but he's fine, IMO. Randle was a middling asset. It's not clear to me how he was going to fit on this construction of the Knicks at all, so to turn him into Towns is a coup, I think. But we'll have to see.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

Tough to find a Robinson fit before December 15. They'd ideally get size and a wing back in exchange for theoretical MRob upside right?

Houston has a few ways to do it (Landale/Eason for MRob; Tate/J Green for MRob/mins) but not sure those make any sense for anyone, really.

Detroit could take in MRob and return Paul Reed, which isn't nuts but feels like a talent hit for Knicks.
Detroit could probably do MRob for Isaiah Stewart and mins, which sort of makes sense for both sides....I don't know the details of the back-end guys as Knicks would need to get vet min types back, but probably solvable

Is there a MRob for quality bench wing and/or non-min vet C and a non-min vet wing?

Pretty much beyond my cap rule/trade machine capabilities on this one, it's going to be tricky. And I have no idea how league values MRob---he's basically TL, isn't he? Valuable when he plays, but impossible to truly beleive in. He's a bit better bet going forward, at least....

Here's a sort of fun one: who says no to MRob for Grant? Seems to work cap-wise, and creates $1.3 mil of room for Knicks.

 

[benhogan]

I mentioned upthread that assuming the NYK completes the deal without trading any rotation players (and giving unexpected pay days to obscure players like Charlie Brown - isn't the NBA great!), they are currently at 12 roster players and just over $3M under the 2nd apron where they are hard-capped. They have 2 weeks into the regular seasonto get to 14 players. One of the 2 extra players has to be a promotion of one of their 2-way contracts. They have room for one vet. I don't think they will wait around to see what Walker will do.

Also, they won't be able to add a 15th player without getting another team to take a player.

However, there are reports that NYK are fielding and listening to offers on MRob.

View: https://twitter.com/krispursiainen/status/1840189610275594710?s=46

The Knicks may want to wait for Walker if they like him (& back-channel with Lonnie's agent). They can start the season with 13 players for a few weeks. Lonnie really wants an NBA contract. Boston will probably send him to Maine if they can get away with it.

I could see Rose wanting to deal MRob, who is a very good player when healthy. But not dependable. 2yrs at $27M is good value if MRob is healthy/starting/closing, but a luxury they can't really afford now that they have KAT starting/closing with OG at the 4. They should try their best to turn the MRob contract into a $10M WING + a BIG like Nick Richards(2yrs/10M), which has been rumored. That would give them a back-up BIG man rotation of Richards, Precious, + Sims, a group that could sop up a lot of regular season minutes.

Leon Rose has done a good job with the Knicks. I'd expect the Knicks would have zero interest in Isaiah Stewart. Although I'm pretty sure Detroit's new GM would love to punt Troy Weaver's $60M blunder extension.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

Stewart is absolutely overpaid---that was and is an awful contract. He may also be duplicative of Achiewa to some degree. But he's a functional defensive/rebounding big who actually plays, which is something NY needs. He's also a better fit next to a big who can shoot, but again...I am less saying he's great than noting there's likely only mediocre fits at least until Dec 15

I don't see an obvious MRob deal out there. But he's a guy teams are likely all over the place on, and all you need is one who sees the upside or the role fit.

Charlotte is certainly a possiblity - they could do Grant straight-up and save $1.3 mil, or Richards + Cody Martin and Knicks would save $1.2 mil. If I were Charlotte I'd wan to get more or a different asset for Richards/Martin but who really knows his value and their assessment of MRob? MRob gives them a hedge against also-rarely-available Mark Williams.

 

[benhogan]

Stewart is absolutely overpaid---that was and is an awful contract. He may also be duplicative of Achiewa to some degree. But he's a functional defensive/rebounding big who actually plays, which is something NY needs. He's also a better fit next to a big who can shoot, but again...I am less saying he's great than noting there's likely only mediocre fits at least until Dec 15

I don't see an obvious MRob deal out there. But he's a guy teams are likely all over the place on, and all you need is one who sees the upside or the role fit.

Charlotte is certainly a possiblity - they could do Grant straight-up and save $1.3 mil, or Richards + Cody Martin and Knicks would save $1.2 mil. If I were Charlotte I'd wan to get more or a different asset for Richards/Martin but who really knows his value and their assessment of MRob? MRob gives them a hedge against also-rarely-available Mark Williams.

I think you're right that the Knicks should use MRob to try and get a WING + bench BIG.

MRob really feels like TimeLord. Tantalizing upside. Just can't stay healthy & it just gets worse every passing season.

IMO the Knicks WING depth is a bigger issue than their BIG depth. Precious/Sims are high-effort BIGs & could fill the role to start the season. Worse comes to worse, the Knicks could grab a BIG at the trade deadline. They should be knocking on the Nets door and see what is going on with Finney-Smith? Maybe they want to roll the dice on a younger MRob

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Stewart makes $15M; I didn’t realize MRob was on a declining contract but he makes $14.3M this year so my first thought is that NYK can’t trade for Stewart unless NYK adds someone currently under contract, which they seem not willing to do (I’m sure someone who really understands the cap will correct me if I’m wrong).

The other question is if NYK wants to add any of their dwindling draft assets to make a deal work.

On Lowe’s last podcast, he mentioned that MRob at one point last season had an OReb% in excess of 20%, which was the best in the league by far and on track to be a historic season. Maybe it will work out but adding KAT + Bridges + someone else for IHart + MRob + DD really changes the character of the team IMO.

 

[benhogan]

Stewart is absolutely overpaid---that was and is an awful contract. He may also be duplicative of Achiewa to some degree. But he's a functional defensive/rebounding big who actually plays, which is something NY needs. He's also a better fit next to a big who can shoot, but again...I am less saying he's great than noting there's likely only mediocre fits at least until Dec 15

Beef Stew is OK. I'm half joking. I constantly found myself scratching my head with Troy Weaver's Piston GMing over the years.
I have a soft spot for bashing all Pistons, 76ers, and Lakers moves, so there is a strong bias at work.

Isaiah Stewart was Exhibit A of a player you just go to RFA on. Especially after seeing how much better Duran was. Weaver just doubled down on HIS Stewart draft pick.

Going to RFA with Stewart
1. Would have given Detroit a very tradeable chip all last season OR
2. Detroit could have used the power of RFA to resign him for a lot less than $60M

I was told by many around here that I was wrong on Isaiah Stewart, so I fully expect to hear that Detroit "at the time" had to extend him.

 

[Montana Fan]

Leon Rose has done a good job with the Knicks.

I’ll say. He turned this Shit roster into KAT, Brunson, OG, Bridges and Hart In 2 years.

 

[benhogan]

I’ll say. He turned this Shit roster into KAT, Brunson, OG, Bridges and Hart In 2 years.

Brad, Leon Rose, Presti, & Kevin Pritchard have all been excellent over the last 3 seasons.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

Stewart makes $15M; I didn’t realize MRob was on a declining contract but he makes $14.3M this year so my first thought is that NYK can’t trade for Stewart unless NYK adds someone currently under contract, which they seem not willing to do (I’m sure someone who really understands the cap will correct me if I’m wrong).

The other question is if NYK wants to add any of their dwindling draft assets to make a deal work.

On Lowe’s last podcast, he mentioned that MRob at one point last season had an OReb% in excess of 20%, which was the best in the league by far and on track to be a historic season. Maybe it will work out but adding KAT + Bridges + someone else for IHart + MRob + DD really changes the character of the team IMO.

Yes, they'd have to add Dadiet or some other end of bench guy, at least using Fantrac's trade machine. Honestly, right now it gets so complicated with the aprons I can no longer independentely verify a lot of these. And not all the trade machines (like ESPN's) have been updated to reflect the KAT trade either, so it's hard to really be sure. Especially given NY need to fill roster spots, I simply don't know what they can do and when with much accuracy.

One question to ponder is why Knicks are so eager to move Robinson right now - which didn't appear the case previously.

1) could be that they know they need a defensive 5, and/or
2) this could be about getting wing depth now that they are more comfortable at 5 with KAT
3) they could have decided MRob will never be healthy and just want out

No idea which or what combo of those three it is...but I do think they are more motivated than they were to do something

 

[PedroKsBambino]

Beef Stew is OK. I'm half joking. I constantly found myself scratching my head with Troy Weaver's Piston GMing over the years.
I have a soft spot for bashing all Pistons, 76ers, and Lakers moves, so there is a strong bias at work.

Isaiah Stewart was Exhibit A of a player you just go to RFA on. Especially after seeing how much better Duran was. Weaver just doubled down on HIS Stewart draft pick.

Going to RFA with Stewart
1. Would have given Detroit a very tradeable chip all last season OR
2. Detroit could have used the power of RFA to resign him for a lot less than $60M

I was told by many around here that I was wrong on Isaiah Stewart, so I fully expect to hear that Detroit "at the time" had to extend him.

This is a bit of my question on some of the extensions we saw this summar (Franz, etc.) It's easy to say that the cap is going up so it never matters, but I think reality is that bad money is even more impactful in the 2nd apron world.

A bunch of what Detroit did with Weaver for maybe an 18 month period felt like he was trying to will them into being a rising young contender in spite of the actual results on the court. I guess I get that job-retention wise but it really messed up a franchise that was already in a not great place

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

I’ll say. He turned this Shit roster into KAT, Brunson, OG, Bridges and Hart In 2 years.

Signing Brunson and having him turn into all-NBA was the key. He turned Barrett and Quickley (already on the roster) into OG; and Randle (already on the roster) plus DD (who Rose did sign, along with Hart) into KAT.

Agree he's done well but the KAT trade is going to make or break the team as NYK doesn't have a a lot of flexibility to revamp this roster if the fit isn't there.

 

[benhogan]

This is a bit of my question on some of the extensions we saw this summar (Franz, etc.) It's easy to say that the cap is going up so it never matters, but I think reality is that bad money is even more impactful in the 2nd apron world.

A bunch of what Detroit did with Weaver for maybe an 18 month period felt like he was trying to will them into being a rising young contender in spite of the actual results on the court. I guess I get that job-retention wise but it really messed up a franchise that was already in a not great place

Agreed, bad contracts are super punitive now, they are more than "just throwing away owners money" now

Danny & Brad have been very clever when it comes to extensions/RFA.

By going to RFA with Marcus Smart & Grant Williams, not only did they save $$$, but they told every extension-eligible Agent that they had no problem going there with key players.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Yes, they'd have to add Dadiet or some other end of bench guy, at least using Fantrac's trade machine. Honestly, right now it gets so complicated with the aprons I can no longer independentely verify a lot of these. And not all the trade machines (like ESPN's) have been updated to reflect the KAT trade either, so it's hard to really be sure. Especially given NY need to fill roster spots, I simply don't know what they can do and when with much accuracy.

One question to ponder is why Knicks are so eager to move Robinson right now - which didn't appear the case previously.

1) could be that they know they need a defensive 5, and/or
2) this could be about getting wing depth now that they are more comfortable at 5 with KAT
3) they could have decided MRob will never be healthy and just want out

No idea which or what combo of those three it is...but I do think they are more motivated than they were to do something

For NYK, I think they key is that NYK is hard capped at the 2nd apron. So after they finish off the KAT trade and assuming no rotation players are moved, they will have about $340K in cap space.

I think NYK is thinking about getting rid of MRob for all the reasons you suggest plus the fact that it looks like he was going to be out until January at least (WIndhorst mentioend that NYK had kept a lid on that news to maintain leverage, but it's out now. Will be interesting to see what other teams are willing to do (or not do).

 

[PedroKsBambino]

For NYK, I think they key is that NYK is hard capped at the 2nd apron. So after they finish off the KAT trade and assuming no rotation players are moved, they will have about $340K in cap space.

I think NYK is thinking about getting rid of MRob for all the reasons you suggest plus the fact that it looks like he was going to be out until January at least (WIndhorst mentioend that NYK had kept a lid on that news to maintain leverage, but it's out now. Will be interesting to see what other teams are willing to do (or not do).

Yes---though remember, they can make the KAT deal a larger deal (at least potentially) so that may - or may not- provide small amounts of flex in different directions.

I agree that creating some space is one of their goals; there's a couple Charlotte packages that would help there, whether or not the value equation can be solved.

 

[Buster Olney the Lonely]

I’ll say. He turned this Shit roster into KAT, Brunson, OG, Bridges and Hart In 2 years.

It is an impressive job. Just to illustrate, the top five minutes played on the 2018-19 Knicks (year after the Porzingis trade to Dallas).

- Kevin Knox, 2158
- Dameyan Dotson, 2004
- Noah Vonleh, 1722
- Emmanuel Mudiay, 1607
- Tim Hardaway Jr, 1499

 

[InstaFace]

Apparently DDV didn't like the idea of coming off the bench and getting fewer minutes this season, with the arrival of Bridges, so he was down for the trade.

https://www.si.com/nba/knicks/news/report-donte-divincenzo-new-york-knicks-plan-karl-anthony-towns-trade

 

[jon abbey]

That's not what the link says really (no one has gotten a direct reaction from DDV before or after the deal), but also he is almost certainly going to have the same sixth man role in MIN.

 

[jon abbey]

All three of these players were so surprised by this deal so close to training camp that we haven't gotten quotes from any of them yet, just a couple of posts from Randle's wife and mom.

 

[teddykgb]

I think the Knicks are the clear #2 team in the East on paper to start the season. They raised their ceiling with this offseason’s moves. Bridges and KAT are high end talent pieces. Now, the question is can they make it all work.

Robinson
Towns
OG
Bridges
Brunson

That is a damn good starting lineup.

A good starting 5 but I still think Philly is better and while the Knicks can consider KAT at C against us I think Embiid will eat him up. Interesting 3 teams there all going about it differently

 

[Euclis20]

All three of these players were so surprised by this deal so close to training camp that we haven't gotten quotes from any of them yet, just a couple of posts from Randle's wife and mom.

Pretty sure this counts as a quote:

View: https://twitter.com/KarlTowns/status/1839849752218738731

To add some substance, is Towns durability an issue? The snap reaction is that he's more reliable than Randle because Randle missed the 2nd half of last year and the playoffs, but this was the first time he's missed real time since his rookie year. Randle has played 330 games over the last 5 years, compared with just 250 for KAT. That's fewer than noted injury risks KP (273), Embiid (275), George (263), Lebron (294) and Davis (270). Among all-star level players it seems like he's only played more than the major injury risk guys who've missed entire seasons (Durant, Kawhi) or are just total flakes (Kyrie).

 

[Euclis20]

Best part of this trade is more Embiid vs Towns drama. Going to be glorious.

Good to refresh the memory:

View: https://youtu.be/Pr4RBjGpPhE?si=GELEAEue0V2VoKeq

 

[LA_33]

That's not what the link says really (no one has gotten a direct reaction from DDV before or after the deal), but also he is almost certainly going to have the same sixth man role in MIN.

White Donte is no higher than 7th in the rotation for the Wolves, behind either reigning 6MOY Naz, or Randle, whoever doesn’t start, and not guaranteed to always play ahead of NAW, either, IMO.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

All three of these players were so surprised by this deal so close to training camp that we haven't gotten quotes from any of them yet, just a couple of posts from Randle's wife and mom.

Don't know whether it is because they are surprised or because the deal isn't complete and could change and they've been asked not to comment---the latter seems more likely to me now that it's been 36 hours

 

[JohnnyTheBone]

Good to refresh the memory:

View: https://youtu.be/Pr4RBjGpPhE?si=GELEAEue0V2VoKeq

Jarring to see Lord Alfred Horford in a Sixers jersey.

 

[LA_33]

To add some substance, is Towns durability an issue? The snap reaction is that he's more reliable than Randle because Randle missed the 2nd half of last year and the playoffs, but this was the first time he's missed real time since his rookie year. Randle has played 330 games over the last 5 years, compared with just 250 for KAT. That's fewer than noted injury risks KP (273), Embiid (275), George (263), Lebron (294) and Davis (270). Among all-star level players it seems like he's only played more than the major injury risk guys who've missed entire seasons (Durant, Kawhi) or are just total flakes (Kyrie).

He’s definitely had issues staying healthy lately.

50 games or fewer 3 of the last 5 years, and only 62 in a 4th, last year when he got back for the playoffs and was periodically very good, but only played 8 regular season games after the all-star break.

 

[BigSoxFan]

A good starting 5 but I still think Philly is better and while the Knicks can consider KAT at C against us I think Embiid will eat him up. Interesting 3 teams there all going about it differently

I’m taking the Knicks’ starting 5 over Philly’s but I think it’s reasonable to prefer Philly’s team (I don’t but it’s close, I think).

Adding NY/Philly drama to KAT/Embiid is going to make for some really compelling games. You just know some double techs are coming with those 2.

 

[LA_33]

I also don't see KAT as some huge defensive liability. He has his share of mental errors and he shouldn't be guarding smaller guys in space, but he's fine, IMO. Randle was a middling asset. It's not clear to me how he was going to fit on this construction of the Knicks at all, so to turn him into Towns is a coup, I think. But we'll have to see.

I think KAT is worse defensively than you’re describing here, because he’s not just bad in space, his slow lateral feet and poor awareness make him a terrible help defender. He’s just not capable of making a difference around the rim as the primary anchor and deterrent.

The Wolves saw this clearly enough over multiple previous seasons that adding an actual defensive big to play next to him and be the rim protector became their #1 roster-building priority, as soon as they realized Ant was going to be for real. They chased Myles Turner for more than a year, drafted a guy they hoped they could develop into that role in Kessler, and ended up valuing the role so much that they went nearly all-in on Gobert. And it worked! They were the best defense in the league last year, hiding KAT at the 4 and/or using him in the 2022 Horford role, guarding bigger centers straight up (which is the thing he does the best defensively, although he’s still VERY foul prone in those spots) so Rudy could roam in the 2022 Time Lord role to protect the rim.

Maybe the Knicks will be able to do the same thing with KAT+Robinson at times, when both he and KAT are actually healthy. But that’s unlikely to be often, and Robinson isn’t as mobile as Rudy, so I’m not sure that roamer role fits him as well, and it takes a talented wing off the floor more often, and forces more minutes on Precious/Sims (Wolves could play KAT+Rudy, because they ALSO had Naz behind them).

Randle wasn’t a great fit with the rest of this Knicks roster, but I think he’s a MUCH better defensive player than KAT (if also not much of a rim protector, or as useful as the primary defender on big scoring 5s like Embiid or Jokic).

 

[EvilEmpire]

I'm ok with the tradeoff. I think what the Knicks gain offensively is more valuable that what they might lose defensively.

Thibs is a good defensive coach. I think he'll figure something out.

 

[the moops]

Thibs is a good defensive coach. I think he'll figure something out.

He certainly was at one point. His Chicago teams were incredible defensively.

However, his Minnesota teams were terrible and finished 28th, 27th, and 24th in team defense.

His New York teams are a little more of a mixed bag, having finished 3rd, 11th, 19th, and 10th.

 

[LA_33]

He certainly was at one point. His Chicago teams were incredible defensively.

However, his Minnesota teams were terrible and finished 28th, 27th, and 24th in team defense.

His New York teams are a little more of a mixed bag, having finished 3rd, 11th, 19th, and 10th.

His Minnesota teams, with Karl-Anthony Towns attempting (and failing) to be the rim-protecting anchor.

KAT’s a bad defender, and it’s not just about being slow and flammable in space.

 

[TomRicardo]

That's not what the link says really (no one has gotten a direct reaction from DDV before or after the deal), but also he is almost certainly going to have the same sixth man role in MIN.

He will get more minutes in Minnesota. Conley requires it at this point.

 

[TomRicardo]

He certainly was at one point. His Chicago teams were incredible defensively.

However, his Minnesota teams were terrible and finished 28th, 27th, and 24th in team defense.

His New York teams are a little more of a mixed bag, having finished 3rd, 11th, 19th, and 10th.

KAT had a huge hand in that. I am shocked Rose forced KAT on Thibs. They famously dislike each other.

 

[brendan f]

KAT’s a bad defender, and it’s not just about being slow and flammable in space.

Yeah, you already made that point. Apparently you have strong feelings about it. FWIW, BPM has him as a plus defender every year he's been in the league, outside his first two years. Also, FWIW, it is less kind to Randle.

 

[benhogan]

Some video of Celtics v Knicks last year.

https://www.celticsblog.com/2024/9/29/24257319/karl-anthony-towns-trade-new-york-knicks-offense-boston-celtics-defense

Like Schrödinger’s cat, this is a curious thought experiment — only by opening the box and watching the games will we find out the answers. But it’s fascinating to see yet another Eastern Conference team with a center capable of pulling Porzingis out of the paint. The Sixers have Joel Embiid, the Bucks have Brook Lopez, the Pacers have Myles Turner, and now the Knicks have Karl-Anthony Towns.

I don't agree with AzadRosay's above conclusion. I'd expect KP would guard the non-shooter (Josh Hart) & continue to help/drop into the paint to cut off Brunson at the rim. Horford, Tillman, Tatum & even Brown can all guard KAT & those Centers when they are planted on the perimeter

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

I don't agree with AzadRosay's above conclusion. I'd expect KP would guard the non-shooter (Josh Hart) & continue to help/drop into the paint to cut off Brunson at the rim. Horford, Tillman, Tatum & even Brown can all guard KAT & those Centers when they are planted on the perimeter

Haven't had a chance to read the article but just wanted to point out that you forgot about Jrue, who spent time guarding Embiid in the post so is definitely capable of guarding the Cs when they are on the perimeter.

I can't wait to see KAT when he gets the ball on the perimeter and is facing Jrue. From NBA.com, KAT went against Jrue for almost 8 minutes, almost 38 partial possessions, and KAT was 4-7 from the field (1-4 from 3P) and 5 TO, scoring 11 points. While I don't have easy comparisons to other players (here are the stats: Jrue Holiday | Boston Celtics | NBA.com ), the 5 To was the most Jrue forced against any player during the regular season except Giannis, against whom Jrue also forced 5 TOs).

 

[benhogan]

Haven't had a chance to read the article but just wanted to point out that you forgot about Jrue, who spent time guarding Embiid in the post so is definitely capable of guarding the Cs when they are on the perimeter.

I can't wait to see KAT when he gets the ball on the perimeter and is facing Jrue. From NBA.com, KAT went against Jrue for almost 8 minutes, almost 38 partial possessions, and KAT was 4-7 from the field (1-4 from 3P) and 5 TO, scoring 11 points. While I don't have easy comparisons to other players (here are the stats: Jrue Holiday | Boston Celtics | NBA.com ), the 5 To was the most Jrue forced against any player during the regular season except Giannis, against whom Jrue also forced 5 TOs).

Great point and memory.

Jrue did flummox Joel early last season. A bunch of us kicked around the idea of Holiday doing the same with Joker, since there were Denver concerns (how will we replace Grant? was comically echo'd)

Jrue's low center of gravity/strength lets him get up under those guys and pester them for short spells.

FWIW the KP injury is a little bit of a speed bump, but this year's Celtic team is opening the season better constructed than last season's version. We didn't know what we'd get out of Kornet, PP, Hauser over a full season in the rotation. I'm very positive about Tillman post-surgery, and thought we saw a hobbled X after the All-Star break. Plus Jrue was thrown into the mix a day before camp.

 

[LA_33]

Yeah, you already made that point. Apparently you have strong feelings about it. FWIW, BPM has him as a plus defender every year he's been in the league, outside his first two years. Also, FWIW, it is less kind to Randle.

Yes, I had already posted about that. But this was half a line, specifically referring to what I had posted before, in order to support a directly related point on a different topic. If that's too much repetition, sorry. But that doesn't seem excessive enough to call me out about it.

At the risk of continuing to talk about KAT and defense, and annoying you further, I think a slightly positive defensive BPM can hide a ton of context, and I'm not sure how much I trust any defensive metric like that anyway.

KAT has had very good defensive coaches most of that time, who have been very focused on hiding him with their schemes. Thibs, who I obviously agree is very good, was never being able to coax a top-20 defense out of a MIN roster with KAT at center (even surrounded by good defensive players, Butler and Wiggins on the wing and not-yet-ancient Taj Gibson at the 4). Finch is also an excellent coach, and got them up to 13th in DRtg in 2022, but with an over-aggressive, borderline gimmicky system that everyone involved decided was never going to allow them to be better than mediocre with KAT as the anchor, especially in the playoffs, which they all actually said directly in the media when they made the Gobert trade.

The counter-factual on the coaching is strong too, because Ryan Saunders wasn't as good at hiding KAT, and the Wolves were worse defensively with KAT on the floor in 2020 than the worst team in the NBA that year (albeit in only 35 games).

So yes, the numbers you're citing indicate that he can be OK defensively, at least in the regular season. But having to scheme around your center defensively to get "OK" defensive impact out of him is a problem in the NBA, and he's also been even worse defensively in the playoffs when opponents can game plan to attack him, by BPM (negative two of those years where he was positive in-season, and close to neutral in the 3rd, with the only significant positive being this past year, when he was on the best defensive team in the league, and they still lost largely because their matchup with Dallas was bad enough they couldn't stop them) and from other measures, including watching almost all of those playoff games. At best, playing him at center gives a team a ceiling defensively that I don't think is high enough to win four series.

 

[TomRicardo]

Yeah, you already made that point. Apparently you have strong feelings about it. FWIW, BPM has him as a plus defender every year he's been in the league, outside his first two years. Also, FWIW, it is less kind to Randle.

KAT is terrible at team defense. He just kind of does his own thing and often does some of the most mind bendingly stupid things that have been seen on a NBA court. Sometimes he is incredible like when he completely stymied Jokic in the playoffs. The problem is he is impossible to get to adhere to a scheme. Thibs went gray trying to get KAT to play team defense. Seriously look at picture of Thibs in Minnesota, he looks like a guy through a nasty divorce.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

So yes, the numbers you're citing indicate that he can be OK defensively, at least in the regular season. But having to scheme around your center defensively to get "OK" defensive impact out of him is a problem in the NBA, and he's also been even worse defensively in the playoffs when opponents can game plan to attack him, by BPM (negative two of those years where he was positive in-season, and close to neutral in the 3rd, with the only significant positive being this past year, when he was on the best defensive team in the league, and they still lost largely because their matchup with Dallas was bad enough they couldn't stop them) and from other measures, including watching almost all of those playoff games. At best, playing him at center gives a team a ceiling defensively that I don't think is high enough to win four series.

I'd argue that essentially what we see with KAT is the same as we see with Doncic - when a team schemes specifically to protect a player it can camoflauge (in metrics) the coaching/scouting reality that a bad defensive player creates a lot of pressure on a team when building/implementing their defensive scheme.

Utlimately, the metrics are speaking some to how well the team did that management and the implicit trade-off with the offensive skills of that player....but doesn't necessarily speak to the individual player's own defensive skill/ability in these extreme cases

As an aside, my personal observation is that Luka is actually better defensively than KAT, at least when he tries.