I did. That's the TLDR summary. Just like many of the posts in this thread, the downsides of this trade for NYK have been covered. It may not work out.
KAT to Knicks for Randle, DiVincenzo, 1st
- Thread starter Murderer's Crow
- Start date
Totally agree. Min-5s on a good team can win a lot of regular season games, but the destiny of someone like Luke Kornet is a long career of 50+ win Celtics teams, good regular season impact stats, and splinters on his butt in the playoffs.
I don’t watch a ton of Wolves games so maybe this is incorrect, but I don’t see Towns running around ball screens or pulling up from 25’ the way DD did. Yes, clearly KAT is a better offensive player than DD but I suspect NYK will miss the spacing that DD provided. Not saying it’s going to jeopardize their season but DD was by far their best volume 3P shooter plus he was a movement shooter and that’s valuable.
Yeah, time to tap the "3P% is only a small part of 3P shooting" sign again.
I know this is kind of “hot takey” but I really do wonder how Towns will fare with the fans and medi in New York.
He’s an incredibly frustrating player to root for. He has a ton of talent but it never seems to all come together for more than random stretches of a few games. The amount of moronic fouls he makes in big situations is crazy.
Fans loved this team last year and if they don’t go as far as those fans expect (likely the ECF) I think Towns will be the obvious scapegoat for them
He’s an incredibly frustrating player to root for. He has a ton of talent but it never seems to all come together for more than random stretches of a few games. The amount of moronic fouls he makes in big situations is crazy.
Fans loved this team last year and if they don’t go as far as those fans expect (likely the ECF) I think Towns will be the obvious scapegoat for them
Such a fascinating trade, and that it wasn't announced by Woj or broken down today by Zach is a new vibe.
It does make a lot of common sense for the team with two starting centers to trade to a team that currently has none and should never count on Robinson to be healthy. The KAT angle- playing in NYC, under Thibs and with a huge contract seems the point of most obvious friction.
Will Ant and Randle play nice together? Break for Denver in that the one team that was designed to specifically beat them is now broken up? Fun to think about.
It does make a lot of common sense for the team with two starting centers to trade to a team that currently has none and should never count on Robinson to be healthy. The KAT angle- playing in NYC, under Thibs and with a huge contract seems the point of most obvious friction.
Will Ant and Randle play nice together? Break for Denver in that the one team that was designed to specifically beat them is now broken up? Fun to think about.
For whatever reason, that's often how it seems to go for high level 3 and d players. Robert covington, jae Crowder, etc. These guys get passed around.
Other have addressed this, but broadly, I think “The Second Apron” is most impactful as a way for teams that aren’t willing to pay the increasingly punitive luxury tax to have an excuse to cut money that doesn’t sound like it’s only/primarily about money.
The draft pick stuff matters in certain contexts, but likely not that much for a team with a relatively young core with real talent, like the Wolves (Ant, McDaniels, Naz, hopefully Dillingham, maybe one/both of White Donte/NAW).
The Wolves we’re going to have to move KAT during the extension that’s starting this year, just for tax purposes, but they shouldn’t care that much about the 2nd apron restrictions, beyond that.
So I’m a bit surprised they did this now, rather than next summer. But this does get ahead of that absolute need, when the return was only likely to get worse, as their timing got more urgent.
As for the return, I wouldn’t look at White Donte as the “salary filler”. He’s THE guy the Wolves supposedly targeted here, and will be in place long-term (maybe he replaces NAW, maybe they can now afford to keep both). They didn’t have elite movement shooting like he represents, and that will really help them maximize Ant.
If anything, Randle is the “salary filler” if we need to think about anyone like that, because he may walk in a year or possibly two. The point about MIN being fortunate that the “salary filler” is that good stands, but they weren’t doing this, especially now, without getting at least two really good current players, and also hopefully some less-expensive long-term fit, too (which DDV is).
I’m not sold about Randle’s fit, but IF it works, they might not be worse, and they’re a bit more versatile defensively in playoff matchup terms (worse against DEN, but maybe better against most everyone else).
I like DD's game but my sense is that he is pretty much the definition of replacement player+-ish, meaning he is good but teams aren't going to pay up for his services or keep him in lieu of an upgrade.
As a side note, I don't hate this trade for Minnesota. KAT and Gobert were clearly an awkward fit, especially in the playoffs and I can see the Wolves being as good if not better this season even after this deal.
This is, indeed, a fascinating transaction in terms of how it impacts both clubs as well as the careers of those involved (e.g. the concerns about KAT playing in NYC seem legit given what we know about that media market and the player in particular).
Knicks side of this has been well covered by others. But as a Minnesota resident and long-time watcher of this team, surrounded by Wolves fans:
I’m absolutely skeptical that KAT can anchor a championship defense as the full-time 5. The Gobert trade was expensive, but Minny HAD to add someone like that, because you NEED a defensive anchor next to KAT to make things work with him on D.
Knicks have Robinson, maybe that works in bigger alignments, and OG/Bridges/Hart is a great defensive 2-4 to try and work around KAT-at-5 when you’re smaller.
But I’m still skeptical.
Robinson ain’t Rudy, who I think remains underrated defensively, somehow.
The Knicks perimeter group also isn’t better than what the Wolves could do playing NAW (or DDR) / Ant / McDaniels / Naz 1-4 with KAT, because that’s similar defense, and still a viable offense, while the Knicks need to play a small guard who can also be targeted in Brunson for their offense to work.
I’m absolutely skeptical that KAT can anchor a championship defense as the full-time 5. The Gobert trade was expensive, but Minny HAD to add someone like that, because you NEED a defensive anchor next to KAT to make things work with him on D.
Knicks have Robinson, maybe that works in bigger alignments, and OG/Bridges/Hart is a great defensive 2-4 to try and work around KAT-at-5 when you’re smaller.
But I’m still skeptical.
Robinson ain’t Rudy, who I think remains underrated defensively, somehow.
The Knicks perimeter group also isn’t better than what the Wolves could do playing NAW (or DDR) / Ant / McDaniels / Naz 1-4 with KAT, because that’s similar defense, and still a viable offense, while the Knicks need to play a small guard who can also be targeted in Brunson for their offense to work.
Windhorst has an article pin the trade with some interesting tidbits to fill in the blanks, particularly about Robinson and the MIN ownership situation.
https://news.google.com/read/CBMi0gFBVV95cUxPN3E5VWMzTTlRZWtkVmV3T1pqdnZzem55UDZ2YWdkM2ZtOFM3NGw0cUVWUmxWU1NwZXBPRlJGLWNEZG9HbEg0eE9PX2REWmNRaE1wQVEtazJzNldZNk1jRFd4TjQ5Q2QwckdhSXNsR3A1dW15OFA2MXo1M2pWS2EtNUlhSDFtUktCdDZkSlotYUNSX2VLTUFWYmdDNHBERWUzRnhMbkRpc1NTcW5Kdlk4V3lCVDYwaVZiWDZhdTFNaVFJV2NibkcxYjVRNzNLUEljekE?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en
https://news.google.com/read/CBMi0gFBVV95cUxPN3E5VWMzTTlRZWtkVmV3T1pqdnZzem55UDZ2YWdkM2ZtOFM3NGw0cUVWUmxWU1NwZXBPRlJGLWNEZG9HbEg0eE9PX2REWmNRaE1wQVEtazJzNldZNk1jRFd4TjQ5Q2QwckdhSXNsR3A1dW15OFA2MXo1M2pWS2EtNUlhSDFtUktCdDZkSlotYUNSX2VLTUFWYmdDNHBERWUzRnhMbkRpc1NTcW5Kdlk4V3lCVDYwaVZiWDZhdTFNaVFJV2NibkcxYjVRNzNLUEljekE?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en
A lineup of Robinson / KAT / OH / Bridges / Brunson puts a ton of playmaking responsibility on Brunson, particularly in the playoffs.
Reminds me of Luka / Kyrie / PJ / DJJ / Lively.
I can't believe you tagged this article with this kind of blasphemy
The Knicks get their franchise center -- affordable thanks to Brunson, who is now inexplicably the team's third-highest paid player after leaving $113 million on the table in his extension over the summer -- and the Wolves save eight figures this year and potentially tens of millions more in the coming seasons while opening up more space for Reid and bolstering their bench with a great shooter.
Thanks for the Windy article - it has some great color including this tidbit not directly related to the trade:
This was also interesting:
And now he’s going to be Edwards’ target. If I‘m Edwards’ coach we’re watching video of how Tatum uses his resources. I think DDV is a great fit next to Edwards and is on a Sam Hauser type contract.
OK point well taken, but it's also the case that KAT is going from one place where an electric drive-initiating guard with a complete around-the-rim game can open up tons of kick-out opportunities for 3s... to another place where an electric drive-initiating guard with a complete around-the-rim game can open up tons of kick-out opportunities for 3s.
Individual 3PT% is only partly a function of shooting talent, and mostly a function of opportunity quality generated by tactical choices on positioning as well as teammates' ability to create spacing. That's all true. But if we're looking at KAT's impact in Minnesota, where last season they shot 38.7% on 3s as a team (essentially tied for league lead: OKC 38.9%, BOS 38.8%), a lot of getting Naz Reid and Mike Conley open for their 3s was a function of KAT's dual threat as both an outside shooter and block back-down finisher.
It's also very easy to underrate how good KAT is as a late crasher / cutter, to finish a play he didn't initiate. Like, watch the play-type selection in his season highlights:
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cR0UJug3L68
Given how Brunson can "initiate his way into trouble" sometimes, given his size, and that they lost their versatile roll-and-cut big in Hartenstein, I expect KAT to bring a lot of danger to their interior offense. He's far less of a stationary outside shooter than, say, OG Anunoby. So I think he will be creating the team 3P%, as much or moreso than he will be the beneficiary of the team creating for him.
Any word on how they complete this deal to make the $$$ work?
Is MRob going to Charlotte for Nick Richards to complete this deal?
Is MRob going to Charlotte for Nick Richards to complete this deal?
The Windy article says a bunch of sign and trades. Keith Smith said in YouTube last night he thought it would be Robinson.
I found it interesting that Leon Rose had been KAT's agent from when he was young until a few years ago. There's a tidbit you won't get many places.
That is true, but I don't think DD would have gotten that kind of volume this season had he stayed with the pre-trade roster. Depending on injuries, of course.
KAT just fits better.
yeah I didn’t know that so thanks to Windy for that information.
I’ve given up on this. If you listen to Windy’s podcast - which I have because there’s not a lot of other content - one would think Jalen changed his name to “Brunson Who Left $113M On The Table”. My son is tired of me explaining max extensions and free agency risk to him so I have to let it go.I can't believe you tagged this article with this kind of blasphemy
The Knicks get their franchise center -- affordable thanks to Brunson, who is now inexplicably the team's third-highest paid player after leaving $113 million on the table in his extension over the summer -- and the Wolves save eight figures this year and potentially tens of millions more in the coming seasons while opening up more space for Reid and bolstering their bench with a great shooter.
Here's a Hoop Rumours article on how NYK can make the salary work: https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2024/09/towns-trade-will-limit-knicks-flexibility-under-hard-cap.html
Guide rails: NYK is over 1st apron but hard capped them at second apron by aggregating salaries in Bridges trade. KAT is at $49.205M for this year. Randle ($28,939,680) + DiVincenzo ($11,445,000) + Bates-Diop ($2,654,644) gets them to $43,039,324, meaning the Knicks need to add another $6,166,476 to the deal. McBride isn't part of the deal; Hart is likely not part of the deal; and I'd suspect that if Robinson was part of the deal, we'd already heard of that. So excluding those players:
Now the fun starts. It's too hard for me to summarize, so here's a lengthy quote from the article:
That leaves two options for the Knicks. They can get to the necessary salary-matching threshold by also sending out rookies Tyler Kolek ($2.09MM) and Pacome Dadiet ($1.81MM). But the preferred solution would be to sign-and-trade another player to the Hornets or another team, giving that player a salary in the $3MM range.
The Knicks still have cap holds on their books for Charlie Brown and Duane Washington, who both finished last season on two-way contracts with the team. Washington is playing for KK Partizan in Serbia, so Brown is the more logical sign-and-trade candidate.
Using his Non-Bird rights, the Knicks could give Brown a starting salary worth up to $2,685,229, which means Jeffries’ starting salary would need to be $3,481,247 in order for the club to reach the required outgoing salary total. In theory, that’s doable, since New York holds Jeffries’ Early Bird rights. However, base year compensation rules would apply to Jeffries in that scenario, meaning his full salary wouldn’t count for matching purposes.
In order to reach the matching threshold using Jeffries and Brown, the Knicks would have to bump Jeffries’ first-year salary all the way up to $6,962,494 — under BYC rules, his outgoing salary would count for 50% of that amount ($3,481,247).
But since Jeffries’ first-year salary was reported to be in the $3MM range, the plan may be to sign-and-trade him at that lower figure ($2,910,484 would work without triggering BYC rules) and add one more player to the package. Maybe it’ll be Kolek or Dadiet, or maybe the Knicks will figure out a way to extract Washington from his contract with Partizan in order to sign-and-trade him too. We’ll see.
The Hornets, meanwhile, are in position to take on Jeffries – and maybe Brown as well – without sending back any salary using their $8MM room exception. They would be the first team to take advantage of the new rules allowing teams to use certain exceptions (the non-taxpayer mid-level, the room, and the bi-annual) to acquire salary in a trade.
If we assume the trade is completed using Randle, DiVincenzo, Bates-Diop, and signed-and-traded players, the Knicks would be left with $185,351,521 in total salary for just 12 players. Their hard cap for the season is $188,931,000. That leaves just $3,579,479 in wiggle room, which is a bit of an issue.
The cap hit for any veteran free agent signing, including camp invitees like Marcus Morris, Landry Shamet, and Chuma Okeke, is $2,087,519. Rookies or players with just one year of experience can have smaller minimum-salary cap hits, but they still count for tax and apron purposes as $2,087,519 players. That “tax variance” rule is meant to prevent teams from passing over veteran free agents in favor of younger ones solely for financial reasons.
Carrying two minimum-salary free agents into the regular season would cost over $4MM for apron purposes, pushing the Knicks above their hard cap. So that won’t be possible unless the team makes another salary-shedding trade that would cost them a rotation player. There’s no indication that’s the plan.
The Knicks could start the season with just 13 players on standard contracts, but they’d only be allowed to do that for up to two weeks before being required to add a 14th man.
So what are their options for that 14th roster spot? Again, assuming they don’t make another cost-cutting trade, the only real possibility for the Knicks would be to sign or convert a former second-round pick to a standard contract. Since the tax variance rule only applies to free agents, a Knicks second-round pick who signs a minimum-salary deal would count as $1,157,153 for cap, tax, and apron purposes.
New York holds the draft rights to a ton of non-NBA players, but the most viable NBA options on that list, including Mathias Lessort and Rokas Jokubaitis, are already under contract with teams in other professional leagues.
That means the more likely path for the Knicks, as Bobby Marks of ESPN tweets, is to convert one of their current two-way players to a standard contract. Kevin McCullar and Ariel Hukporti both signed their two-way deals after being drafted by New York, so either player would be a candidate for a promotion. Jacob Toppin wouldn’t be, since he signed his two-way contract as a free agent, meaning the tax variance rule would apply to him.
Let’s say the Knicks complete the Towns trade as we outlined above, retain either Morris, Shamet, or Okeke to start the season, then promote McCullar or Hukporti to a standard contract 14 days into the season. In that scenario, the team’s salary would be right around $188.5MM for 14 players, giving them approximately $428K in wiggle room below their hard cap for the rest of the season.
The Knicks’ ability to make in-season moves, including adding a 15th man, would be severely limited in that scenario. But their roster would be legal, which is the primary concern at this point.
New York could generate slightly more breathing room below the second apron hard cap by including either Kolek or Dadiet in their package for Towns, then promoting both McCullar and Hukporti to the standard roster on minimum deals.
With a night to sleep on it, I really do like this for the Knicks. There are obviously some red flags with KAT (particularly his playoff struggles and his fit with Thibs) but he solves their biggest weakness (center depth) and while he's not a very good defending center, when surrounded with the Knicks' stellar perimeter defenders I think that just being ok will be mostly good enough.
I get the cap reasons to do this for the Wolves (and it's a slightly better fit defensively because as a true power forward, Randle is a more natural fit next to Gobert), I really do, but this will make things a lot harder for Edwards on offense. KP may be the only center with better 3 point gravity than Towns, and a front line of Jaden McDaniels (.335 from 3), Randle (.311 from 3) and Gobert (doesn't shoot more than 10 feet from the basket) is brutal in terms of spacing and a massive downgrade from last year. Maybe they go small with Ant playing the 3 and a backcourt of Divincenzo and Conley, otherwise Ant is going to be driving into 3 guys sitting in the paint every time.
I get the cap reasons to do this for the Wolves (and it's a slightly better fit defensively because as a true power forward, Randle is a more natural fit next to Gobert), I really do, but this will make things a lot harder for Edwards on offense. KP may be the only center with better 3 point gravity than Towns, and a front line of Jaden McDaniels (.335 from 3), Randle (.311 from 3) and Gobert (doesn't shoot more than 10 feet from the basket) is brutal in terms of spacing and a massive downgrade from last year. Maybe they go small with Ant playing the 3 and a backcourt of Divincenzo and Conley, otherwise Ant is going to be driving into 3 guys sitting in the paint every time.
Timpf was recently bemoaning spacing issues for Anthony Edwards, it just got worse with Randle instead of KAT.
Maybe they start Naz Reid and make Randle the 6th Man so Julius can continue being a high USG player with the 2nd unit???
Feels like the EC is starting to close the massive gap between conferences.
Ha...it did feel like ESPN anointed the Knicks playoff winners vs the Pacers 3-4!
I'm with you - ego aside, Randle as sixth man (and Reid next to Gobert) makes a lot of sense for Minny.
Will be interested if they can get to that setup
Will be interested if they can get to that setup
The Celtics aren't scared at all. KAT is very containable for Boston. Besides Tatum, both Horford and Brown can box him up.
KAT will feast on the EC dregs. The Knicks will pile up wins, spreading teams out with Brunson drive and kicking.
Yea somehow they need to figure out how to spread the floor for Ant. Rudy should be the only non-shooter.
Maybe they also experiment with DD starting? IDK somehow they also need to let Randle play his game of high USG.
I wonder if Rudy and Randle will pal around, that's an off-court match made in hell.
It's a lot of ego to push aside. Randle is 29 and made the all-star team three times in the last four years, I don't think he's going to the bench for Naz Reid.
Yea that was me throwing crap against the wall.
Julius isn't going to the bench in a contract year or he'd go Jimmy Butler on the Wolves.
Maybe the Wolves show everyone Julius is healthy, the first few months, and then deal him before the trade deadline.
Let's be honest, Randle is ready to be a Piston, get his contract, and not have to be bothered with the playoffs
I think the addition of both KAT and Bridges makes the Knicks a more formidable competitor for Boston and the rest of the EC. I thought Bridges was an upgrade for them so this makes them a bit tougher imo.
That said, as many others have pointed out, KAT may not jell with his teammates or with Thibs or the pressure of playing for the Knicks may affect him et etc.
On paper, the Knicks are tougher than their last iteration. Whether that translates to the court is to be seen.
I know one thing, I can't wait for the season to start.
I was specifically asking about KAT. No doubt that Bridges makes them more formidable.
For anyone who is wondering why MIN traded Towns, I think Sam Quinn nails it here: https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/new-cba-scared-timberwolves-into-trading-karl-anthony-towns-while-they-still-could/
The canary in Minnesota's coal mine was Brandon Ingram. In June, the New Orleans Pelicans traded one of their centers (Larry Nance Jr.) for Dejounte Murray, a player who replicates a significant chunk of what Ingram does offensively, and allowed the other (Jonas Valanciunas) to walk in free agency. They could not have more clearly telegraphed their intention with that decision. Murray was introduced to replace Ingram's shot-making. Herb Jones and Trey Murphy are ready to play his position. The center position was left entirely vacant. The goal after acquiring Murray was to flip Ingram in a deal that included a replacement center. The Pelicans were more than justified in assuming such a deal would be out there. It's not usually hard to trade 27-year-old wings who have made an All-Star team.
It's September and Brandon Ingram is still a Pelican, and money is the simplest reason why.
Well to be more specific, I do believe that the Knicks are a tougher opponent for Boston today than they were yesterday.
I think the Knicks are the clear #2 team in the East on paper to start the season. They raised their ceiling with this offseason’s moves. Bridges and KAT are high end talent pieces. Now, the question is can they make it all work.
Robinson
Towns
OG
Bridges
Brunson
That is a damn good starting lineup.
Robinson
Towns
OG
Bridges
Brunson
That is a damn good starting lineup.
After hearing it from Perk and now this forum Im gonna go ahead and say measuring "fear" is not a great way to evaluate how good a basketball team is.
This seems completely and unnecessarily passive aggressive and kind of shitty (especially bringing up Perk before)
Why:don’t you just say how you feel about the trade? What do you think will happen? Its easy to snipe from the sidelines but offer no opinion[/QUOTE]
I think it will be hard to move Randle to the bench, given his profile and likely associated ego.
But that doesn’t stop the Wolves from staggering Ant and Randle so that one of them is always on the floor, with White Donte and Naz in as many of the minutes where they’re not together as possible (and especially the Randle minutes) to increase the spacing.
That makes it easier to use Randle’s shot creation, and avoids the cramped Rudy/Randle/McDaniels (who is getting better as a shooter, but not there yet consistently) lineup around Ant.
EDIT: The question would then come down to who closes, and whether Finch can get away with keeping Randle on the bench in a lot of THOSE spots. He got a ton of buy-in to keep Naz out there in place of Rudy or KAT in closing spots, but that may be harder with Randle, coming in from the outside, in a contract year.
But that doesn’t stop the Wolves from staggering Ant and Randle so that one of them is always on the floor, with White Donte and Naz in as many of the minutes where they’re not together as possible (and especially the Randle minutes) to increase the spacing.
That makes it easier to use Randle’s shot creation, and avoids the cramped Rudy/Randle/McDaniels (who is getting better as a shooter, but not there yet consistently) lineup around Ant.
EDIT: The question would then come down to who closes, and whether Finch can get away with keeping Randle on the bench in a lot of THOSE spots. He got a ton of buy-in to keep Naz out there in place of Rudy or KAT in closing spots, but that may be harder with Randle, coming in from the outside, in a contract year.
It would probably take an injury or underperformance for the Knicks to beat the Celtics in a playoff round. But injuries do happen and the Knicks are probably as well situated as any team to take advantage should it happen (obviously hoping it doesn’t).
Perkins doesn’t deserve any defense. He sucks.
[/QUOTE]
Perkins doesn’t deserve any defense. He sucks.
Perkins doesn’t deserve any defense. He sucks.
[/QUOTE]
Oh trust me, I wasn’t defending Perk. I was insulted that he was brought up in conjunction with this forum. I thought that was clear but, yes, no defending Perk
I don’t think there’s any question that the Knicks ceiling for higher, IMO at least. But the Celtics are just much better, on both ends.
Agreed. This place would be a lot better with fewer passive-aggressive insults & more basketball analysis/opinions.
As far as saying "fear" I read that as a "matchup problem" since that's what drives the NBA
The Knicks with KAT "matchup" better against the majority of NBA teams
The Celtics less so. Boston matches up well with KAT
Yea, this is exactly what I was getting at.
Ultimately I believe Randle to Minny is temporary and just a prelude to another trade by Feb.
[/QUOTE]
This clearly makes the Knicks better, and they were a good team last year that already improved earlier in the off-season by adding Bridges. Why do you think your subjective perception of "fear" ought to be the bottom line here?
The Knicks biggest issue as a serious playoff contender prior to the trade was the lack of a premier offensive threat besides Brunson. I don't put Randle in that category, and I do think KAT can be if he plays to his potential. This trade increases their championship odds quite a bit IMO, though Boston are still pretty head and shoulders above everyone else.
I was aiming to be directly aggressive as opposed to passive aggressive. I also think we should have more analysis, I was saying I think that particular model of analysis is not informative.
3pt% is not the end all be all, BUT.... real bigs who can hit deep 3s at a high rate at high volume is incredibly valuable, probably more so than anything other than elite off the dribble ballhandler deep 3s.
Guys who can wind up and hit 36% on slow release shots twice a game is okay, KAT hits 40% on 5+ with a real release, he changes the form of the offense.
Guys who can wind up and hit 36% on slow release shots twice a game is okay, KAT hits 40% on 5+ with a real release, he changes the form of the offense.