Kaleb Ort appreciation thread

johnlos

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Aug 22, 2014
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He's the biggest punching bag I've seen on SoSH this past year with more than a handful of posts wishing him off the roster. Rationale for keeping the 31 year-old Ort on the roster--despite mediocre in-game performance--is summarized in this The Athletic piece from last September. Tl;dr: he throws really hard with lots of movement, and they don't want to risk losing the next Jeffrey Springs or Paul Sewald.

But my reason for trying to turn the tide on Ort sentiment today in particular: his Stuff+ numbers are popping so far this year. Stuff+ is exhaustively explained by Driveline here and its predictive usefulness (in relatively small samples) is shown more succinctly by Eno Sarris here. In short, a 100 pitch is league-average, 125 is great, and 150 is elite. Looking at Eno's list updated yesterday for all four of Ort's appearances, his Stuff+ numbers look like this:
4-seam: 136.4 on 86 pitches
Slider: 113.5 on 21 pitches
And his Location+ on the 4-seam and slider are 107.8 and 92.2, so about league-average there.

This is what Cora means when he keeps referring to Ort's stuff keeping him on the roster. For context, the first big-name relievers off the top of my head with fastball/slider combos and their per pitch numbers from 2022:
Andres Munoz: 4-seam 120.3, Slider 131.3
Paul Sewald: 4-seam 146.2, Slider 116.6
Joe McFoney*: 4-seam 122.1, Slider 112.6
Josh Hader: Sinker 122.3, Slider 114.5
Pete Fairbanks: 4-seam 181.9, Slider 116.1
Ryan Helsley: 4-seam 159.9, Slider 135.5
Ryan Brasier for comparison, not a big name (outside of SoSH): 4-seam 113.9, Slider 102.8


*Joe McFoney is 2022 Kaleb Ort. See my point!
 
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Rovin Romine

Johnny Rico
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Jul 14, 2005
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Looking at Eno's list updated yesterday for all four of Ort's appearances, his Stuff+ numbers look like this:
4-seam: 136.4 on 86 pitches
Slider: 113.5 on 21 pitches
And his Location+ on the 4-seam and slider are 107.8 and 92.2, so about league-average there.

This is what Cora means when he keeps referring to Ort's stuff keeping him on the roster.
Ort's made 5 appearances, and pitched 6 innings. He's given up 8 hits and 4 earned runs.

His last outing was great - but he needs to string together a lot more of those for him to be worth carrying on anyone's roster.
 

Pozo the Clown

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Sep 13, 2006
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A long time ago in a thread far, far away...it is a period of rivalry war. Red Sox ballclubs, striking from Fenway Park, have yet to win their first post-season series victory against the Evil Empire.

Back in those dark days, a man by the name of Eric Van, in a thread titled "Awesome Fossum," posted statistical analysis that he cited as proof that the immortal Casey Fossum was actually a superior pitcher to Bartolo Colon.

To this SoSH veteran (I had a different handle back in the "Lanterjaw" era), jonlos' post is like a visit from the Ghost of SoSH past.
 

Philip Jeff Frye

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Oct 23, 2001
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Back in those dark days, a man by the name of Eric Van, in a thread titled "Awesome Fossum," posted statistical analysis that he cited as proof that the immortal Casey Fossum was actually a superior pitcher to Bartolo Colon.
Ah yes, the thread to which Benjamin Disraeli was referring when he uttered his famous "There are three kinds of lies: Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics" quote.
 

bosox188

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Jan 11, 2008
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The stuff models are useful and I've been keeping an eye on how Ort is looking there as well. FYI, Fangraphs now has both Eno's Stuff+ and Cameron Grove's PitchingBot models available in their leaderboards section under "Pitch Modeling." FWIW, PitchingBot is showing similarly good stuff numbers from Ort thus far.

That said, it's still early to draw conclusions from the models. Fangraphs has a more in-depth writeup on the Stuff model that shows Stuff+ stabilizes around 80 pitches, while Location+ takes much longer (400 pitches). So right now we have enough to tell us that Ort's fastball might be pretty good in terms of raw stuff but the command remains to be seen, and anything about the slider remains to be seen as well.

The models also cannot say anything in terms of how deception or pitch sequencing factor into a pitcher's performance. There are some corner cases where the models consistently overestimate or underestimate a pitcher. Pitchers who rely on a good changeup may tend to register lower on Stuff+ but still consistently rack up strikeouts, Patrick Sandoval being a good example. Which of course is why we should look at the model as one of a number of useful tools in the arsenal but not the be-all-end-all, lest we end up worshipping Casey Fossum (I don't think I was around during Eric Van's heyday but I've read some of the tales).

Ort is getting very few whiffs to start the season, so for one reason or another batters have still been on him. Maybe they're seeing the ball really well out of his hand and he needs to fix that in his delivery, who the hell knows. But hey, that's probably easier to fix than trying to teach someone how to throw 100, so there's that.
 

j44thor

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Aug 1, 2006
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I can't be the only one that came here thinking he was DFA'd or traded for PTBNL and this was a tongue in cheek way to announce that am I?
 

Philip Jeff Frye

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Oct 23, 2001
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Ort is getting very few whiffs to start the season, so for one reason or another batters have still been on him. Maybe they're seeing the ball really well out of his hand and he needs to fix that in his delivery, who the hell knows. But hey, that's probably easier to fix than trying to teach someone how to throw 100, so there's that.
Is this as rare as it used to be? Seems like there are a lot of guys who can really bring it these days.

I can't be the only one that came here thinking he was DFA'd or traded for PTBNL and this was a tongue in cheek way to announce that am I?
This is exactly what I thought.
 

johnlos

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Aug 22, 2014
248
The stuff models are useful and I've been keeping an eye on how Ort is looking there as well. FYI, Fangraphs now has both Eno's Stuff+ and Cameron Grove's PitchingBot models available in their leaderboards section under "Pitch Modeling." FWIW, PitchingBot is showing similarly good stuff numbers from Ort thus far.

That said, it's still early to draw conclusions from the models. Fangraphs has a more in-depth writeup on the Stuff model that shows Stuff+ stabilizes around 80 pitches, while Location+ takes much longer (400 pitches). So right now we have enough to tell us that Ort's fastball might be pretty good in terms of raw stuff but the command remains to be seen, and anything about the slider remains to be seen as well.

The models also cannot say anything in terms of how deception or pitch sequencing factor into a pitcher's performance. There are some corner cases where the models consistently overestimate or underestimate a pitcher. Pitchers who rely on a good changeup may tend to register lower on Stuff+ but still consistently rack up strikeouts, Patrick Sandoval being a good example. Which of course is why we should look at the model as one of a number of useful tools in the arsenal but not the be-all-end-all, lest we end up worshipping Casey Fossum (I don't think I was around during Eric Van's heyday but I've read some of the tales).

Ort is getting very few whiffs to start the season, so for one reason or another batters have still been on him. Maybe they're seeing the ball really well out of his hand and he needs to fix that in his delivery, who the hell knows. But hey, that's probably easier to fix than trying to teach someone how to throw 100, so there's that.
Agreed. Just think more people should be aware of what goes into these roster decisions. Rooting for the guy for sure--even more so when he gets compared to Casey Fossum in the KOat
 

billy ashley

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Jul 15, 2005
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It's cool data, and it's been reported by a bunch of folks that the reason why Ort survived so long on the 40-man is that he models really like his stuff.

For me, the Ort thing comes down to this question:

Is it worth losing X to gamble on what the models have to say about Ort?

We know what X was/is:



Player Where are they now? How are they doing? Verdict?
Thad Ward Nationals, rule 5. Could be returned Small Sample, lots of whiffs, lots of walks, lots of home runs. He's pitching like how we wanted Dalbec to hit Too soon to say. Ward was probably the most likely to be selected prospected in this rule 5 draft this year. Not protecting him caused many (including me) to curse Ort's name
Matt Barnes Marlins, DFA then traded for Bleier Small sample. Good ERA but pretty much the same BB and HR rates as WARD. Not in closer conversation. Fastball velocity down 2 mph from last year. Almost certainly a win, here. Boston got back a better pitcher in Richard Bleier. This is the type of end of the roster shit that we want to see.
Franklin German White Sox AAA, DFA, then traded for a blacksmith or a tanner or something Didn't break camp with the White Sox. Really bad in the very small sample he's pitched in AAA. Again, like Barnes, they got something for him, here. Denlinger (the blacksmith) is actually sort of interesting. I liked German, but he profiled as a 6th or 7th inning arm. I think preserving Ort and gaining a guy who is similar in value to German but has options, is a win, here.
Jeter Downs Nationals, AAA, DFA, claimed on waivers Didn't break camp with Nats. Is hitting poorly in AAA.. K rate is under 20% in the super small sample though. Jeter Downs was never going to survive the 40 man crunch. I feel for him, hope he is able to re-establish himself in Washington. Was never going to happen in Boston though


So yeah, I may be missing someone (I'm not counting Song who was never going to be protected) but I'm starting to think many of us, including myself, overreacted to Ort surviving as long as he has. It really comes down to whether or not Ort was worth risking not getting Ward back from the rule 5 draft.
 

johnlos

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Aug 22, 2014
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Thanks for the breakdown. Would be a lot easier for people to root for Ort I think if he were 26 (like Thad) instead of 31. But for a reliever I think all the upside you're looking for is 3-4 years of a guy that could pitch in a playoff game so I don't think the age matters a ton.

FWIW Thad Ward was 109.7 Stuff+/98.6 Location+ this spring on 77 pitches and is at 89.4 Stuff+/90.9 Location+ on 80 pitches for the Nats in two appearances.
 

donutogre

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Jul 20, 2005
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A much-deserved bump!

EDIT: I say this with some degree of sarcasm, but I did appreciate the fact that he didn't get totally shelled today.