Yup. This is exactly the kind of team that can catch fire in the second half, too. We’re a Casas return, another RHH corner type, and a Bello fastball command tweak away from being a pretty good team.
June;: Red Sox discussion, observations and trend tracking...AKA It's not all about the Benjamins
- Thread starter YTF
- Start date
Been a Sox fan for many years and I have to say this current team is one of the more exiting to watch. Are they one of the best? No. Do they have the most talent? No. are they really frustrating to watch at times as well? Yes. Do they make lots of mistakes? Yep. All in all though they seem to play hard, appear to enjoy playing together and on the whole are pretty entertaining. I also think that if they can get a couple more players back from injury without losing others to the same fate that they just might sneak into the playoffs at which point anything could happen. Could they also go the other way and totally fall out of things? Yep, but whatever happens i still feel they are more entertaining then i went into the season thinking they would be.
That 1976 A's team was crazy aggressive on the basepaths, setting the AL record for steals in a season at 341 along with 123 times caught stealing. For comparison, this year's MLB leader is the Reds who are on pace for 235 steals and 52 times caught stealing. The Sox are on pace for 155 steals and 47 times caught stealing.
I loved Kutter battling after a run of poor play. if they could get some depth in the rotation, it would help. Are they stretching out winckowski? He could take a turn and reduce the pressure on Crawford and Houck.
The first year I really remember following the Sox in depth for an entire season was 1983.
The Sox stole 30 bases that season.
Seeing a stat like the one above is mind blowing.
Team caught stealing leaders, along with their SB%
https://stathead.com/tiny/xFsQ4
- 1913 Giants 195 60%
- 1912 White Sox 193 52%
- 1914 Yankees 191 57%
- 1914 Browns 189 55%
- 1914 A's 188 55%
Restricted to since 1947:
https://stathead.com/tiny/vORsa
- 1976 A's 123 73%
- 1977 Pirates 120 68%
- 1992 Cardinals 118 64%
- 1978 A's 117 55% (!)
- 1992 Brewers 115 69%
https://stathead.com/tiny/qyxtl
- 1996 Royals 85 70%
- 1998 Blue Jays 81 69%
- 1999 Astros 75 69%
- 2010 White Sox 74 68%
- 2003 Marlins 74 67%
- 1997 Astros 74 70%
- 1997 Mets 74 57%
Since 2012 - 2013 Astros 61 64%
Since 2014 - 2014 Rangers 59 64%
Since 2015 - 2016 Brewers 56 76%
Since 2017 - 2018 Devil Rays 51 72%
Since 2019 - 2023 Reds 48 80%
As teams have gotten smarter about base-stealing, only the really efficient base-stealing teams are putting up large volumes of steals to produce the higher caught stealings.
The line in his most recent start in Worcester (Thursday): 6 IP, 3 hits, 1 run, 8 K, 0 BB. It was his second straight start pitching into the 6th (5.2 IP). If they need a spot start, he appears ready for it.
I expected Whitey Herzog's Royals to show up on these all-time stolen base lists somewhere, but no.
It's probably easy to overlook here, but check out Mike Petriello's analysis of the 2024 Red Sox pitching approach that I posted in the Andrew Bailey thread over the weekend.
It's probably easy to overlook here, but check out Mike Petriello's analysis of the 2024 Red Sox pitching approach that I posted in the Andrew Bailey thread over the weekend.
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Just wanted to point out I was listed the top CAUGHT stealing teams of all time. The 1976 Royals had the most of any Royals team ever with 106, while stealing at a 67% clip.
That team has the 10th most stolen base attempts and the 9th most caught stealings of any team since 1969, so they weren't far from some of the lists above.
Man I know that stealing bases is considered inefficient and that the Three True Outcome is STILL considered the safest way to score but god that really led to boring baseball. Yeah, fans like to see their team win and winning is the most exciting thing but I really prefer to watch games the way the Sox have been playing lately (minus the STILL sloppy defense).
That's the kind of deep dive analysis I love about this place. Thanks for posting.
It’s not inefficient if you can do it at an 75% clip. But before the new rules, that was really hard. If Hamilton is going to steal at a 93% clip, that is extremely efficient.
Richard Fitts is also someone that could come up, though he'd have to be added to the 40 man. Zach Penrod is also a possibility down the line, though less likely since he is currently injured.
Speed also manifests itself in going first to third or scoring from second. And SB numbers aside, we have a bunch of guys with plus speed: Hamilton, Duran, Rafaela, Wong. Romy's pretty fast too.
Guys like Abreu, O'Neill, Grissom, and Refsnyder are average-fast but not base-cloggers.
Our slow guys are Casas, McGuire, Devers, Yoshida, Valdez.
I'd also guess (no hard numbers to back this up) on a team like the Sox with:
a) relatively low HRs (just below average for the AL)
b) high K rates (#3 in the AL)
c) good doubles rates (#2 in the AL)
that moving a "score from second" guy who singled or walked over to 2B with a steal can be pretty valuable.
For what it's worth, the Red Sox have had the second worst total umpire favor in MLB this year according to Umpire Scorecards with -8.1 total favor. Cleveland is the most favored team with a massive +18.28 and the Yankees are third at +13.45.
Hopefully this kind of thing is truly random and will regress to the mean.
Hopefully this kind of thing is truly random and will regress to the mean.
One strength of this team actually has been its depth. As many injuries to players- Casas, Story, O’Neill, Abreu, Yoshida etc and pitchers- Whitlock, Pivetta… they have been relatively good at covering those. They’re still right in the thick of it. Prior two seasons that was not the case.
For sure. And it seems like teams are not running nearly enough given the potential success rates for adept base stealers.
Bring back the days of Vince Coleman is what I’m saying.
Agreed. Seems to me that if we can swipe a bag at a >75% clip, we should be doing it a lot more.
The A’s have released JD Davis. To be honest, before this year, I thought Davis and Dominic Smith were the same person.
However, in the ever-present search for somebody better than Bobby Dalbec, Davis isn’t an awful choice. A butcher defensively, but he’s a butcher at first AND third. He's OPS'ing .670 this year, .300 MORE than Bobby. What do we have to lose?
I hope he’s the next in a long line of scrap-heap guys who we try while waiting for Casas to return. June’s Garrett Cooper if you’d like.
However, in the ever-present search for somebody better than Bobby Dalbec, Davis isn’t an awful choice. A butcher defensively, but he’s a butcher at first AND third. He's OPS'ing .670 this year, .300 MORE than Bobby. What do we have to lose?
I hope he’s the next in a long line of scrap-heap guys who we try while waiting for Casas to return. June’s Garrett Cooper if you’d like.
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He's worth a shot over Dalbec since he can actually hit the ball. Davis has a 98 wRC+ so far this year and projects to a 112 for the rest of the season by ZiPS. At minimum he can platoon with Smith until Casas returns and if he hits lefties a bit he could be a platoon IF corner guy.
If we can continue to play well for another week or two, Abreu and Casas will lengthen the lineup even more. Imagine swapping out Smith for Casas in last game’s lineup.
For all the complaining about a lack of depth in the offseason, we’ve had very solid contributions from a lot of unheralded players.
For all the complaining about a lack of depth in the offseason, we’ve had very solid contributions from a lot of unheralded players.
Don't hold your breath. The bolded is the reason. Dalbec is frustrating as hell at the plate but he is just fine defensively at first AND third. And with his option, he's solid depth that can be stashed when he's not needed. The same can't be said of JD Davis. I don't see a need to take a flier on a twice dumped vet for, what, a month? Who goes to make room for him? Presumably Dalbec is going to be optioned when Abreu comes back on Friday, at which point Romy is the RHH 1B option and where do you fit Davis in?
Yup, Romy is taking Dalbec’s spot, which is great because he offers the same skill set (RHH power) but can play all four IF spots as well as corner OF.
I'm not sure what his non MLB experience is at 1st, but his big league experience consists of 1 start and a total of 12 innings.
I’m really thinking now that Breslow has to find a way to trade Yoshida when Casas returns. I’d much rather see an outfield of Abreu, Refsnyder, Duran, O’Neill and Rafaela with the odd man out at DH of the Reffy/O’Neill crew. Casas will likely need a week in AAA and I’d rather hold onto Smith. I just don’t see how the team can find PA’s for Yoshida that I wouldn’t prefer to see Reffy or O’Neill there.
While I see your point, I have a hard time assuming everyone's going to be healthy at any given point.
Casas isn't coming back anytime soon. I agree Abreu will definitely length the lineup though.
Fangraphs keeps records of this stuff. He played 110 innings there in 2019 and has started four games there for Worcester this year.
The guy is a natural defender, not a range wizard like Ceddanne but a smooth fielder nonetheless. If they need him to play some first base he'll handle it fine, I think.
I'll abandon my JD Davis fantasy if that's indeed what the Sox do. However, there's just as big a chance that when Abreu is activated they'll send Valdez down which keeps the excrible Dalbec on the roster till either Grissom or Casas is ready.
And that's the problem, isn't it? Remember last season how long the wait for the 'he's ready!' Trevor Story turned out to be?
On this date:
2021, 43-29 63% chance to make the playoffs
2022, 37-31, 66% chance to make the playoffs
2023, 39-35, 28% chance to make the playoffs
2024, 40-35, 38% chance to make the playoffs
Almost exactly where we were in '22 and in '23, but the division as a whole is much weaker. And this team is in many ways completely different from the '23 team.
2021, 43-29 63% chance to make the playoffs
2022, 37-31, 66% chance to make the playoffs
2023, 39-35, 28% chance to make the playoffs
2024, 40-35, 38% chance to make the playoffs
Almost exactly where we were in '22 and in '23, but the division as a whole is much weaker. And this team is in many ways completely different from the '23 team.
Fingers crossed! My minimum expectation is that the Sox are plausibly in the playoff race through Labor Day Weekend. That's certainly the case at the moment.
Now only 1 GB of both KC and MIN. Who knows, we could be the 2nd wild card team by the end of the weekend if the hot streak continues.
I was just thinking that the Netflix documentary being made all of a sudden has the potential to be way better than most here could’ve imagined a couple months ago. Consider the different great storylines that are possible with this fun to watch, quite likable team.
Personally I'm waiting for the posting slew of: "I was an unmitigated and obnoxious asshole about everything concerning this team for months on end, but they've pleasantly surprised me!"
I mean, assuming those folks are actually following the Sox. If they're winning, they probably won't be.
I spend very little bandwidth or energy on those guys you’re referring to anymore. They’ll always find something to bitch about but go radio silent when the team is fun to watch and doing well. I appreciate the guys and girls on here who like baseball and offer something constructive on a regular basis. You know who you are.
Questioning moves a team makes does not mean rooting against them. I say this as someone who hasn't been very critical of the team but understands those who choose to be.
Maybe some of them will even give some credit to the manager and hitting coach.
One problem is that too many people quote statistics they don't understand. For example, many think bunting is bad because it results in less average runs scored. What they don't understand is that bunting can increase the probability of scoring a single run, which is incredibly important in a pitcher's duel and as the game goes to late innings. (i.e., it can increase the probability that you win the game). That's the stat we should be looking at.
I’d rather not rehash the “Front Office is too cheap to be trying to win” debates, here. But I was too often accused of carrying water for the owners. And I was not amused.
I will reiterate. Young, fast, athletic teams with low expectations can be a lot of fun to follow.
And we are seeing that materialize before our eyes this June.
9-3 since the disappointing split with the pale hose.Our starters regularly keep us in every gam. Our bullpen is legit, including our closer.
and our lineup is getting healthier and better as the year rolls on. I am digging this June
I will reiterate. Young, fast, athletic teams with low expectations can be a lot of fun to follow.
And we are seeing that materialize before our eyes this June.
9-3 since the disappointing split with the pale hose.Our starters regularly keep us in every gam. Our bullpen is legit, including our closer.
and our lineup is getting healthier and better as the year rolls on. I am digging this June
I do think It will be interesting to see how this team treats the trade deadline. They’re in prime position to compete for a WC spot and should get Casas back in the coming weeks but there will be a lot of competition for those final 2 WC spots now that Houston and Texas appear to be figuring things out. Problem is that I’m not sure what our non top 3 guys bring back in trade so I don’t really expect any major moves.