Hmm, I'm not sure. I would think since pythag is pretty much just a measure of runs scored and runs allowed that it would be more affected by big blowout wins and tight losses. They're 14-18 at home, 7-5 in one run games, 2-4 in extra innings, and 13-14 in blowouts. No overall pattern I'm discerning, really. One thing, is, I suppose, that their largest offensive outbursts have coincided with great pitching performances. 17-0, 12-2, 11-3, 14-2. Not exactly the most economical use of those outbursts, I guess. If they'd have come on nights where the other team scored 6 or eight or whatever, we might be a few games over .500 and sweating a little less.
No, and doubly no if you'd told me that value was buoyed by his defense. What a turnaround.
It is interesting to think the Red Sox are 2 games out of the wildcard yet 11.5 games out of 2nd in their division. The AL right now has three teams on track to win over 105 games and two of them are in the AL East. Then, as you point out, there are a lot of teams sitting around .500 or just under. A 6-game winning streak would have quite the impact for the Sox.
I still say if not for a very strong wind that pushed a fly out into a grand slam around the Pesky Pole against him, he would be a well regarded MLB reliever.
I havent done the math, but 1 of 3 against the teams "better than they are" while winning most of the series against the ones below them and more than half of the ones "about the same" as they are should keep them in contention. The splits with Detroit and Chicago hurt them in this regard. (At the same time, I'm almost giving them a pass on the White Sox series, as that was the season's lineup nadir.)
Just how MLB wants it.
FWIW, FanGraphs has six AL teams above 50% playoff odds: the Yankees, Orioles, Guardians, Twins, Mariners and Royals (albeit barely at 52%). Houston is next at 33%; the Red Sox are at 16%, right alongside the Jays, Rays and Tigers. BP has the Yankees, O's, Guardians, Twins and Mariners at 50% or better, then the Rangers and Astros at 42-44%, with the Jays and Royals both hovering around 35-40% and the Red Sox all the way down at 10%, slightly ahead of Tampa and Detroit. Both sites have Boston at a 10-15% chance of winning a wild card spot.
I'm actually at the point with Rafaela's offense where I wonder if the team's best alignment might be something like Refsnyder/Yoshida in left, Duran in Center, and Wilyer in right, once he's back, with O'Neill at DH, given his hobble-tude. Offensively that would eliminate one our only remaining black holes. Rafaela has obviously been incredible defensively, but his offense has also been awful.
I'd still love for him to play four or five days a week. I'm mostly just talking about getting the other guys in there, all of whom are much, much better hitters presently.
Is this meant to dispute my point that most teams are plausibly in the pkayoff race until relatively late in the season? Or support it?
I think Cora's doing the JBJ playbook here, where one tries to justify carrying a void bat because of the plus CF defense. But it's really been a void bat recently. (And, to be fair, with Abreu/O'Neill out, you may as well get CR's defense at one of the OFs.)
Neither, really, just adding context; it depends on your definition of plausibly in the race. Like, the Red Sox have a 1-in-10 chance despite being only two games out of a wild card spot; the advanced odds would consider them already out of the race, but it's hard to say that given how close they are to a spot and that they have no teams in front of them (for now anyway).
Gotcha.
The last 2 games were great stuff by the O. Beating up on Nola was impressive. Hopefully they can keep it going against Gil.
All right-
The lineup last night looked like a major league lineup. Duran just keeps impressing.
I think they're going to have some choices to make once Romy finishes his rehab up. They'll want Hamilton's bat in the lineup as long as he stays hot, and Valdez is heating up now too... but Romy might be the steadiest of the options at SS on defense. My guess is they leave Romy down at AAA for now to preserve as much flexibility as they can and keep Jamie Westbrook up until Grissom is ready, but then again, they may just DFA Westbrook. He'll almost certainly clear waivers.
The team is tied for 9th in Runs scored per game, they're 8th in OPS, and 12th in WRC+. So they are an above average MLB offense, that is a bit inflated due to Fenway. People talk about the offense like it's terrible, but it simply isn't. These are not the offenses we saw in the Big Papi days, but nobody has an offense like that any more. And the best thing about it is that there is a clear path to improve a few of the short comings with Casas and Yoshida coming back, and the possibility that a fully healthy Grissom doesn't suck.
FWIW, Westbrook has options so a DFA may not be necessary unless they really need the 40-man spot.
The raw numbers say what they say - but a longer lineup with players stepping up or coming back will start to have a different qualitative feel.
He's also looked better at the plate recently, albeit with a few too many (hard) hits on grounders. And, yeah, when(if) we get a full outfield corps, I'd like him to get some days off.
View: https://twitter.com/maccerullo/status/1802176993963688255?s=46
Has he ever done anything to indicate he isn't a great guy and a great teammate?
A quick search didn't find anything specific but on the pregame show Abraham and others have indicated that Jansen was sort of aloof from his teammates and wouldn't mind being treated. Abraham in particular said that Jansen didn't fit in on the team but that he was being a good soldier.
If his writing matches his talking, Abraham's "fit" comment was related to the fact that a middling team doesn't generally have much need for a "closer," considering what the trade return might be. And at the time he wrote it, Jansen wasn't getting much of a chance to pitch.
I am curious what other feats are as rare as 9 SB by a single team in a game.
I had the same concern. Oops.
