June;: Red Sox discussion, observations and trend tracking...AKA It's not all about the Benjamins

[YTF]

Starting this thread as a place to discuss the actual on field aspects of the team while hopefully keeping the $$$ talk for other threads. At the suggestion of a couple of well respected dopes in an attempt to avoid a megathread well be starting a new thread each month for discussion, observations and the tracking of current trends.

As the calendar turns to June we'll look to continue what has been some good discussion. Two months into the season with just over 1/3 of their games played the Sox the season the Sox are playing .500 baseball at 29-29. The pitching staff as a whole continues to far outperform our expectations and the infield defense, while still shaky has been a bit better. Injuries continue to haunt us. Giolito, Story and now Whitlock are done for the season. Casas has missed five weeks and will miss at least three more. Yoshida has been out for over a month and while he's not lived up to our expectations, we're all hopeful that he can return soon and contribute. We also need O'Neill to come back healthy and become the RH power bat that he was earlier. The young OF of Duran, Rafaela and Abreu look to be one of the best in the game. As a group they have been solid on defense and continue to be depended upon offensively. Rafaela seems to be finding his stroke and that is welcomed news. Devers' six game HR run was fun , but since the he seems to be getting on base at least twice a game. Overall the offense is a bit Jekyll and Hyde, we need the return of a healthy Casas and O'Neill. Rafaela clearly belongs in CF, but if O'Neill's knee allows him to return to the OF little Raffy might be best used to help solidify the infield defense. The catching tandem of Wong and McGuire continue to be among the best in baseball, so no complaints there. We now need Grissom to settle in and become a meaningful RH hitter. As @InsideTheParker would say, "Geaux Sox!!! Now continue to discuss.

 

[RS2004foreever]

Bref - two months in
Boston ranks 8th in War above average. The infield is a disaster, the outfield is by this measure 3rd in baseball.

 

[Cassvt2023]

I'm putting this here because hopefully by sometime in June (or early July in the case of Casas) the lineup could look something like this:

Duran CF
Casas 1B
O'neill LF
Devers 3B
Abreu RF
Wong C
Yoshida DH
Grissom 2B
Rafaela SS

McGuire
Hamilton
Refsnyder
R Gonzalez

 

[chrisfont9]

From May 1 to July 31, the 2004 Red Sox were 41-40. Of course the current Sox don't resemble that team at all, but for different reasons they may not be a .500 team just because two months' play suggests they are. They could be worse -- the league is pretty stacked with young talent, as the Tigers will remind us -- but their potential to make a move with a team that's no longer injury-riddled and whose young players get to settle in more, that's worth waiting for.

 

[Rovin Romine]

Thought I'd pull this over from the May thread:

You never want to say that a stretch this early can make-or-break a team, but it's mid-May and we're hovering above .500. The reasons why are well-discussed and understandable, and .500 isn't a bad place to be, given all that.

That said, we're 1/4 of the way through the season and need to start to move up in the rankings to be viable by the trade deadline.

We've got:

4 TBR​

3 @ STL​

3 @ TBR​

3 MIL​

3 @ BAL​

2 DET​

(end of May)​

2 DET​

STL isn't having a great year. However, BAL is, MIL is a legit team, and DET is a .500 club.

So, (IMO) much depends on how we pitch to and hit the Rays, who seem much more vulnerable this year. We've got 13 games against them and the upcoming block accounts for just over half those games. Last year we went 2-11 against them. I hope the team is being prepped accordingly.

Having a nice win-harvesting streak headed into MIL/BAL/DET would be a very good thing.

(I feel the '23 Sox would have lost 6 of the first 10 with the Cora press-argument of players taking steps forward and improvement and poor luck and tip-your-cap, then gone 3-5 with the argument of man-those-are-just-tough-teams.)

We ended up with:

4 TBR 1-3​

3 @ STL 1-2​

3 @ TBR 3-0​

3 MIL 1-2​

3 @ BAL 1-2​

2 DET 1-1​

(end of May)​

2 DET 1-1​

Total: 9-11. The good news is we broke the TBR streak and held our own against an AL East rival. We also hung in there against MIL and BAL. Sorta.

The bad news is we're committed to the same-old-same-old. Call 'em snake-bit or whatever, too many relievers fumbled games. Starters were pushed just a runner or two too long. Batters can't move guys over, and the plan is apparently just to wait for IL players to return and swing for the fences in the meantime, strikeouts be damned.

So, 9-11 instead of 10-10, or 11-9.

It adds up.

 

[nattysez]

June is an interesting month. 1-1 so far and now they have:
2vATL
4@CHW
3vPHI
3vMFY
3@TOR
3@CIN
3vTOR
3vSD

If Toronto starts selling off prior to the 6 games against them (or maybe even if they don't), that TOR-CIN-TOR run could be pretty good for the local nine. I think Benintendi will be out for the series against CHW. Hopefully Tommy Pham doesn't try to fight anyone.

 

[Tony Pena's Gas Cloud]

Thought I'd pull this over from the May thread:


We ended up with:

4 TBR 1-3​

3 @ STL 1-2​

3 @ TBR 3-0​

3 MIL 1-2​

3 @ BAL 1-2​

2 DET 1-1​

(end of May)​

2 DET 1-1​

Total: 9-11. The good news is we broke the TBR streak and held our own against an AL East rival. We also hung in there against MIL and BAL. Sorta.

The bad news is we're committed to the same-old-same-old. Call 'em snake-bit or whatever, too many relievers fumbled games. Starters were pushed just a runner or two too long. Batters can't move guys over, and the plan is apparently just to wait for IL players to return and swing for the fences in the meantime, strikeouts be damned.

So, 9-11 instead of 10-10, or 11-9.

It adds up.

I'm curious about your "relievers fumbling games" assessment. A quick look (unless I missed one) shows that the only game since May 1 where the bullpen blew a late lead was the last game. There were four other games where the bullpen entered in a tie and lost the game, but only once did they allow more than two runs (the Slaten meltdown vs St Louis). The rest were low-scoring games where the offense couldn't get in gear. I'm not really sure how the bullpen was an issue over the last month.

 

[GB5]

Benintendi being out for our series with them….doesnt help us!!!

 

[grimshaw]

Edit: Moved to different thread.

 

[Rovin Romine]

I'm curious about your "relievers fumbling games" assessment. A quick look (unless I missed one) shows that the only game since May 1 where the bullpen blew a late lead was the last game. There were four other games where the bullpen entered in a tie and lost the game, but only once did they allow more than two runs (the Slaten meltdown vs St Louis). The rest were low-scoring games where the offense couldn't get in gear. I'm not really sure how the bullpen was an issue over the last month.

That's a fair point, so I drilled down a bit more:

Are you looking at officially credited runs, or inherited runners allowed to score? I know the official rule, and there were times when relievers stranded runners. However, I think that if a manager is letting a starter go into the top band of their pitch count, or the starter "has not got it," then dealing with inherited runners is something to consider when trying to actually win games. Do you have a shut-down guy ready that day? Do you roll the dice? When do you warm a guy? Etc.

***

Anyway, I now subjectively make it 4-4-4. Four not good/wise starter-to-bullpen choices, 4 agnostic, and 4 justified. I may have missed some that qualify - feel free to point them (or anything else) out.

Whether any one was smart/justified given reliever usage/availability, I just don't address - and that can be a factor. I'm just looking at the starter-pull decisions, most of which have an inherited runner component. I'm also not looking at this from an "odds" perspective - just outcomes. It may be that the Sox got lucky or unlucky here with inherited runners - but a lot of that would depend on individual matchups and leveraging platoon advantages, etc. Again, just not addressed.

But I think "big picture" - trusting the Sox to get all those details right, or at least about league-average, paints an interesting picture:


Where it did not go well. Trying to steal outs arguably costs the game.

Houck left in to start the 6th (high pitch count) with the Sox up 1. 2 inherited runners score off Weissart, plus an unearned run. Sox end up down 2. (Ultimately a 1 run loss.) https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BOS/BOS202405150.shtml​

​

A gassed Bello starts the 7th with the Sox up 1. 2 inherited runners score off Slaten. Sox finish the inning down 1 run. (Sox come back to tie but Detroit wins in extras.) https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BOS/BOS202406020.shtml​

​

Did not go well, BUT effective relievers/minimal damage. Trying to steal outs did not help and may have hurt.

​

Bello run to 100 pitches moves a 1 run deficit to a 2 run deficit. BUT Booser strands a runner. (Sox lose as lead later widens.) https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SLN/SLN202405170.shtml​

​

Pivetta kept in for the 6th, allowing a 1 run deficit to become a 2 run deficit. BUT Weissart strands 2. (Sox lose as later Martin implosion widens lead.) https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BOS/BOS202405300.shtml​

​

​

Agnostic - bad starts - watcha gonna do? Obviously you can't go early to the pen on all of these, but neither can you punt them all by allowing your starter to run up an irrecoverable lead (given the current Sox offensive roster) while you burn your "good arms" anyway to eat innings.

Criswell run out to 100 pitches moves a 3-1 deficit to 5-1. (Sox rally to tie and lose in 9th - Jansen): https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BOS/BOS202405160.shtml​

​

Bad Crawford start - pulled after a 3-1 deficit becomes a 6-1 deficit. Bernardino strands a runner. (Sox lose.) https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BOS/BOS202405240.shtml​

​

Bad Pivetta start - pulled after a 5-0 deficit (77 pitches) Booser strands a runner. (Sox lose by 3.) https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BOS/BOS202405250.shtml​

​

Bad Criswell start - pulled after finishing the 4th wherein a 2 run deficit became a 7 run deficit. (Sox lose.) https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BAL/BAL202405270.shtml​

Where it went well. Pulling starters with runners on in close games, regardless of final outcome. I'm not saying these were tactically brilliant or not, or just lucky or not, but the outcomes here seem to justify the choice:

Crawford run out to 99 pitches. Bernardino strands 2 runners, preserving a tie game in the 6th. (Sox ultimately lose. This is the Slaten implosion game - so "stealing" outs and inherited runners wasn't a negative factor here. Slaten also stranded some of Bernardino's runners.) https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SLN/SLN202405180.shtml​

​

Criswell pulled in the 6th, 1 out, 1 on at 79 pitches - tie game. Booser strands the runner. (Sox win.) https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/TBA/TBA202405210.shtml​

​

Bello run out to 90 pitches, leaves w 2 on, 0 out, Sox up 1. Bernardino strands 2 runners. (Sox win.) https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BAL/BAL202405280.shtml​

​

Criswell starts the 6th with a double. Sox up 2. Bernardino strands the runner. (Sox win.) https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BOS/BOS202406010.shtml​

​

 

[Rovin Romine]

An addendum - the IMO stealing-outs-not-a-huge-factor games in our recent stretch:

Crawford gives up 4 runs while finishing the 6th at 101 pitches, and leaves down 1 run, having finished strong. Weissert follows with a clean inning. Sox lose. https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BOS/BOS202405130.shtml​

​

Pivetta goes into the 6th on 81 pitches and gives up a homer on his last pitch. He leaves with the Sox up 1 run. Slaten comes in and gives up 2 runs, tying the game. This seems to be a factor, but the "early" pull with the lead is hard to argue with. Sox win in extras. https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BOS/BOS202405140.shtml​

​

Pivetta finishes the 6th up 8-1. Sox win. https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SLN/SLN202405190.shtml​

​

Houck finishes the 7th up 5-0. Sox win. https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/TBA/TBA202405200.shtml​

​

Bello finishes the 6th up 5 runs. Sox win. https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/TBA/TBA202405220.shtml​

​

Houck finishes the 6th at 93 pitches with the game tied 1-1. Perhaps a good example of not being temped to steal outs, given Houck's reliability? Sox win. https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BOS/BOS202405260.shtml​

​

Houck finishes the 7th, up 7-1. Sox Win. https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BOS/BOS202405310.shtml​

​

Also:

​

Bad Crawford start, giving up 5 runs in the second. Should go into the agnostic category above. Sox lose. https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BAL/BAL202405290.shtml​

 

[soxhop411]

The team is traveling to Chicago in Celtics gear

Red Sox players are traveling to Chicago wearing Celtics gear. Kenley Jansen, a diehard Lakers fan, is a conscientious objector, and expressed dismay that Brennan Bernardino (also a born-and-bred Lakers fan) is wearing a Pearce jersey.

View: https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/1798456044135293354

 

[jon abbey]

Speier confusing Paul (Pierce) and Steve (Pearce) there, clearly a baseball guy.

 

[DeadlySplitter]

100 games left now, where you can easily convert winning percentage of remaining games into the corrresponding W-L.

.600 pace on these games would lead to a 91-71 record and that is very likely a WC spot. It is also an unrealistic expectation for the current roster that has to slog through most of this month missing over half the expected opening day starters.

.550 pace is more possible but also feels like a stretch, and would be a 86-76 record - not very likely to be a playoff record, but possible.

I foresee another “well they are kinda in it” come July 30, but Craig will not make the same mistake as his predecessor and will sell, sell, sell.

 

[Sox Pride]

We need a thread that flips it’s name back and forth between
”YAY! We’re .500 again!”
and
”Boo! We’re .500 again.”

on the plus side, we did just split with the Braves. And at home, to boot.

 

[Daniel_Son]

We need a thread that flips it’s name back and forth between
”YAY! We’re .500 again!”
and
”Boo! We’re .500 again.”

on the plus side, we did just split with the Braves. And at home, to boot.

I think the Who To Buy/Who To Sell threads are working the same way.

 

[Apisith]

By expected win-loss, we’re the 5th best team in the AL. This is a playoff team, even with all the injuries.

Fangraphs is not a believer but that’s more of a function of how tough the AL East is. If we can beat up the non-AL East teams then we should be competitive.

 

[Rovin Romine]

By expected win-loss, we’re the 5th best team in the AL. This is a playoff team, even with all the injuries.

Fangraphs is not a believer but that’s more of a function of how tough the AL East is. If we can beat up the non-AL East teams then we should be competitive.

I agree - I think they have a chance, given their pitching.

But I don't think this is an AL East issue only. So far we've played 63 games, and are 1-5 against BAL, and 4-3 against TBR. Nothing yet for NYY or TOR. 5-8 total. Given SSS, injuries, etc., it's not ideal but we'd be in the mix, arguably.

So, to look at the tougher AL teams - the WC teams are currently: NYY, CLE, BAL, KCR, SEA, MIN, with Boston next at 1.5 games back.

We've gone 2-5 v. CLE, 1-5 v. BAL, 2-2 v. SEA, 1-2 v. MIN, for a total of 6-14. (26-15 v. everybody else.)

Again, injuries, etc. and so we can't close the book on them. But the thing is they have to start winning more of those games. The pitching should be able to suppress runs, and the offense (even as is) should be able to make many of those games competitive - but they need to be closer to .500 for that to work. Even an 8-12 showing would have put them in the last WC spot as of today.

 

[grimshaw]

Ya, the AL East thing hasn't been a factor yet and that's mostly my concern. It's just been against good teams period.

If they can pull off a .400 instead of a current .300 winning percentage vs the good (16 and 25) I think that's acceptable to compete if they play .600 ball vs the rest..

If they can pull off a.600 winning percentage vs the the rest which would be a drop off pace (37 and 25) that gets them to 85 wins.

 

[GB5]

Not sure where to put this but John Henry spoke today through an interview with a financial source and let’s just say that the RS front office should revoke his speaking privileges. Semi attack on RS fans for being unrealistic.

 

[Rovin Romine]

Not sure where to put this but John Henry spoke today through an interview with a financial source and let’s just say that the RS front office should revoke his speaking privileges. Semi attack on RS fans for being unrealistic.

Despite a "lengthy" interview, the only reporting on this (Tomase and the usual suspects) are articles that pull 4 quotes and then argue with them.

I'd have to read the interview, but color me shocked if it turns out they're not as provocative in context.

 

[Rasputin]

Not sure where to put this but John Henry spoke today through an interview with a financial source and let’s just say that the RS front office should revoke his speaking privileges. Semi attack on RS fans for being unrealistic.

He's not wrong.

 

[DeadlySplitter]

Unfortunately it's not a free website to get the full interview. This seems to lay out some quotes with no opinions, at least:

https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2024/06/in-rare-interview-john-henry-says-red-sox-fans-have-unrealistic-expectations.html

Biggest quote IMO:

“He also took issue with the obsession over his and Werner’s remarks about ‘expensive’ ballplayers and going ‘full throttle,’” Germano said of Henry. “The latter had ‘overshadowed every other word, paragraph and interview of the winter because it reaches so deeply into the false belief that many fans and media have that you should mortgage the future each year for the present.’ Creating a sustainable future for the Red Sox was, he argued, more important than any given year’s payroll. ‘You have to base acquisitions and dispositions on the future, not the past,’ he said. ‘That is unpopular generally.’”

 

[chrisfont9]

Unfortunately it's not a free website to get the full interview. This seems to lay out some quotes with no opinions, at least:

https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2024/06/in-rare-interview-john-henry-says-red-sox-fans-have-unrealistic-expectations.html

Biggest quote IMO:

Every little quote I’ve seen sounds like a pretty factual description of what we have been seeing.

 

[HfxBob]

Every little quote I’ve seen sounds like a pretty factual description of what we have been seeing.

Is it factual that the typical Red Sox fan expects a championship almost every year? Sounds kinda exaggerated to me. Almost like Henry pictures the average fan as Johnny from Burger King. What about the possibility the frustration/apathy of fans is more about things like trading Betts and watching their team finish under .500 two years in a row (and 6 out of 12 years) with another losing season in 2024 highly possible?

On the one hand he's explaining why he doesn't talk much to the press, on the other he's using this rare interview as an opportunity to criticize the fans. Come out of hiding, take a few potshots, go back into hiding. Very courageous approach.

I think he could have chosen his words a lot better. This is just going to create more backlash.

 

[canderson]

I have access to FT. There aren’t a ton of quotes actually - the interview was done via email.

Another quote:

As FSG grew and diversified, the perception that it is made up of businesspeople first and sports fans second has gained traction. Henry disputes this. Having spent “a lot of time” with fellow sports owners over the past couple of decades, he says “most of them feel responsible to their communities to bring championships.” And during Henry’s tenure, the Red Sox have won four World Series, the most of any baseball team this century. Liverpool also ended its dry spell of 30 years without a league title. Yet fans always want more, and Henry knows the numbers are stacked against him. “Because fans expect championships almost annually,” he wrote to me, “they easily become frustrated and are not going to buy into what the odds actually are: one in 20 or one in 30.”

Here is the already discussed quite in full context.

Few individuals are more closely associated with Boston sports fandom than Simmons, so I asked him to explain how fellow Sox supporters are feeling about Henry. “He ran the first competent ownership group that the Red Sox ever had. They spent real money, revitalised Fenway Park, and genuinely seemed to give a shit. And 2018 was the best Red Sox team ever. All of that was incredible,” Simmons wrote to me. But in the past several years, “we watched him in real time shifting his focus. And the Red Sox suffered horribly for it.”

Henry disputed the idea there was a risk attached in stretching his attention span across so many complex businesses. “There would be a risk,” he wrote, “if FSG was not so deep and strong in personnel.” He also took issue with the obsession over his and Werner’s remarks about “expensive” ballplayers and going “full throttle”. The latter had “overshadowed every other word, paragraph and interview of the winter because it reaches so deeply into the false belief that many fans and media have that you should mortgage the future each year for the present.” Creating a sustainable future for the Red Sox was, he argued, more important than any given year’s payroll. “You have to base acquisitions and dispositions on the future, not the past,” he said. “That is unpopular generally.”

But the inescapable fact for FSG is that the owners of other clubs have been spending a lot more. Boston committed $54.9mn on free agent contracts during the 2023-24 winter transfer window, ranking 12th out of 30 MLB teams and nowhere near the $1.1bn spent by the Dodgers. On social media and in local Boston sports columns, most tended to agree with Simmons.

 

[HfxBob]

When John goes as far as saying "one in 30", he's implying that every single MLB team has an equal chance of winning it all, as if the Red Sox have no advantages. Not a very judicious thing to say.

 

[HfxBob]

Some of what he said is good too. I believe him when he says there's no intent to sell, that he's in it for the long haul. And they are doing some good things on the team building front, no question. I'm just surprised he can't express himself without antagonizing the fans, the people that fund the franchise.

 

[geoflin]

I'm not in disagreement with what Henry is saying. Having been a baseball fan for 50 years through the drought until 2004 I know it's not possible to win, or even have a contending team, every year. I also know, and the Mets, Padres, and Dodgers can attest, that spending money doesn't guarantee even reaching the World Series. I also am well aware that many fans don't think the way I do and aren't patient enough to spend a few years building for the future. He's right - teams do have to balance the present and the future, and if the core of the team just isn't good enough to win now it doesn't make a lot of sense to spend money around the fringes. That's how I feel about this year. The team isn't good enough to win so I'm willing to be patient, let the young players develop, trade the veterans who won't be returning for prospects, and wait until Mayer, Anthony, Teel, etc. are ready for the majors. Then, when they're filling lineup spots at minimum salary, spend the money to surround them with whatever else they need to contend for a championship.

 

[HfxBob]

I'm not in disagreement with what Henry is saying. Having been a baseball fan for 50 years through the drought until 2004 I know it's not possible to win, or even have a contending team, every year.

I think most fans know that. That's why what Henry said was kind of insulting. He could have said something a little more balanced.

 

[RS2004foreever]

I think most of what Henry said was right - particularly the part of him saying he couldn't win in the Boston Press. Boston sports media creates villains - hell they will admit it. That Henry has become one is stupid.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I think most fans know that. That's why what Henry said was kind of insulting. He could have said something a little more balanced.

Kinda depends on his perspective, doesn't it? I mean, if most of the fan feedback he gets is from the most vocal fans on social media (or the types of fans that show up to that winter fanfest thing and boo), should it really be a surprise that he might see the fan base as less than understanding about the notion that it's not easy to win/contend every single year? And that's not even considering the media that is highly demanding and tends to slant to the negative more often than not. One might think it's a bit Pollyanna-ish to believe that most fans of this team are patient and understanding.

 

[HfxBob]

Kinda depends on his perspective, doesn't it? I mean, if most of the fan feedback he gets is from the most vocal fans on social media (or the types of fans that show up to that winter fanfest thing and boo), should it really be a surprise that he might see the fan base as less than understanding about the notion that it's not easy to win/contend every single year?

Well, I think that's exactly the issue - he's talking as if the loud gripers you're referring to are representative of the fanbase as a whole. How many people are we talking about that showed up at the fanfest and booed, for example?

 

[chrisfont9]

Is it factual that the typical Red Sox fan expects a championship almost every year? Sounds kinda exaggerated to me. Almost like Henry pictures the average fan as Johnny from Burger King. What about the possibility the frustration/apathy of fans is more about things like trading Betts and watching their team finish under .500 two years in a row (and 6 out of 12 years) with another losing season in 2024 highly possible?

On the one hand he's explaining why he doesn't talk much to the press, on the other he's using this rare interview as an opportunity to criticize the fans. Come out of hiding, take a few potshots, go back into hiding. Very courageous approach.

I think he could have chosen his words a lot better. This is just going to create more backlash.

I'm sure he's responding to the loudest part of the fanbase, which has been extremely critical of the rebuilding process that they are obviously on. Also I don't blame him for "hiding," it's not really the owner's job to be out there explaining the baseball side of stuff all the time. Very few owners ever do baseball ops interviews.

 

[chrisfont9]

When John goes as far as saying "one in 30", he's implying that every single MLB team has an equal chance of winning it all, as if the Red Sox have no advantages. Not a very judicious thing to say.

He said "one in 20 or 30" though. Which is again kind of factual, the sport is awash in talent and most teams are able to contend for the playoffs. As an owner he's going to downplay the number of teams who are out of it. Also we are seeing the ChiSox and saw the Nats recently, the teams that have bottomed out most dramatically -- these teams won't be down long. They are collecting high-end talent. It would have been awesome if he'd said "29" though and went on to explain how hopeless the Angels are.

 

[chrisfont9]

I have access to FT. There aren’t a ton of quotes actually - the interview was done via email.

Another quote:



Here is the already discussed quite in full context.

So they asked BILL SIMMONS to speak for all of us? WTAF? I've been in the Simmons thread saying nice things about his show and his basketball knowledge but he knows less than most of the people here about baseball. He gets mad at advanced metrics.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Well, I think that's exactly the issue - he's talking as if the loud gripers you're referring to are representative of the fanbase as a whole. How many people are we talking about that showed up at the fanfest and booed, for example?

Is he talking as if they represent the whole fanbase though? Or is he just addressing them because they're the most vocal? I guess my perspective is that if I don't count myself among those fans but I recognize they exist, I don't need to feel insulted or personally affronted by comments about or directed at them and not me.

 

[The Gray Eagle]

Starting this thread as a place to discuss the actual on field aspects of the team while hopefully keeping the $$$ talk for other threads.

Good lord why is this whining about the ownership in THIS thread? "It's not all about the Benjamins"?
There are like 4 other threads where people go on and on about how they are mad at the owners, etc. Why is it going in this one, which was started expressly to talk about the team on the field and to have a place to do that where we don't have to read that same conversation where the same people say the same thing over and over again?

 

[HfxBob]

Good lord why is this whining about the ownership in THIS thread? "It's not all about the Benjamins"?
There are like 4 other threads where people go on and on about how they are mad at the owners, etc. Why is it going in this one, which was started expressly to talk about the team on the field and to have a place to do that where we don't have to read that same conversation where the same people say the same thing over and over again?

The poster who put it here made a mistake. Should have gone in the "Let's lay off that throttle" thread, hopefully all these posts will get moved.

 

[chrisfont9]

Ugh the cumulative weight of the injuries is really a bummer right now. Hopefully Crawford can get squared away again or this month could be bad.

 

[absintheofmalaise]

The poster who put it here made a mistake. Should have gone in the "Let's lay off that throttle" thread, hopefully all these posts will get moved.

You can always quote the posts and post them in that thread yourself instead of keeping the discussion going in this thread. Quit blaming others when you're the poster keeping the discussion going.

 

[HfxBob]

You can always quote the posts and post them in that thread yourself instead of keeping the discussion going in this thread. Quit blaming others when you're the poster keeping the discussion going.

Wow, what BS. I was the 6th poster to comment on it. Chris Font has 4 posts on it. But yeah, it's all me.

 

[absintheofmalaise]

Wow, what BS. I was the 6th poster to comment on it. Chris Font has 4 posts on it. But yeah, it's all me.

PM sent.

 

[YTF]

Good lord why is this whining about the ownership in THIS thread? "It's not all about the Benjamins"?
There are like 4 other threads where people go on and on about how they are mad at the owners, etc. Why is it going in this one, which was started expressly to talk about the team on the field and to have a place to do that where we don't have to read that same conversation where the same people say the same thing over and over again?

Thanks for the vigilance. I would like to add that I am VERY appreciative of the fact that these monthly threads have been mostly free of talk about financial issues. Nice job y'all.

 

[Midnight Ryder Jones]

He said "one in 20 or 30" though. Which is again kind of factual, the sport is awash in talent and most teams are able to contend for the playoffs. As an owner he's going to downplay the number of teams who are out of it. Also we are seeing the ChiSox and saw the Nats recently, the teams that have bottomed out most dramatically -- these teams won't be down long. They are collecting high-end talent. It would have been awesome if he'd said "29" though and went on to explain how hopeless the Angels are.

When he said "one in 20" he was referring to Liverpool, not the Sox (there are 20 teams in the EPL).. So he is asserting that every team has the same odds of winning the championship, regardless of financial resources. It's not "kind of factual," it is statistically false (especially vis Liverpool in the EPL). And he knows that it's statistically false, which makes it an outright lie.

 

[Fishy1]

Amazing to me that they're still just 1.5 games out of a Wild Card spot. So are about 6 other teams, of course, but the Sox look like they've played the best of that bunch so far.

I just don't know if they can hold up. Too many injuries, and a few of the starters are falling back to Earth. They need some wins badly.

 

[Sox Pride]

Amazing to me that they're still just 1.5 games out of a Wild Card spot. So are about 6 other teams, of course, but the Sox look like they've played the best of that bunch so far.

I just don't know if they can hold up. Too many injuries, and a few of the starters are falling back to Earth. They need some wins badly.

Agreed

And next week looks like a real litmus test with 6 games against high level teams.
They already failed this week by not taking this series against Chicago.
Gotta win today and hold their own next week.

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

Amazing to me that they're still just 1.5 games out of a Wild Card spot. So are about 6 other teams, of course, but the Sox look like they've played the best of that bunch so far.

I just don't know if they can hold up. Too many injuries, and a few of the starters are falling back to Earth. They need some wins badly.

Yeah, the case for optimism is basically that the Twins are catchable, and the on-paper "better" teams below them in the standings are struggling with similar injury/underperformance issues right now.

 

[Fishy1]

Yeah, the case for optimism is basically that the Twins are catchable, and the on-paper "better" teams below them in the standings are struggling with similar injury/underperformance issues right now.

I know I'm becoming the pythag guy around here, also, but they're the only group of the bunch who've significantly underperformed their pythag. Just by runs and runs allowed, they're playing below their talent level even with all the injuries. Doesn't mean jack squat, of course, if they don't continue to perform the way they have, or if they continue to struggle with RISP and in close games.

 

[Rasputin]

I know I'm becoming the pythag guy around here, also, but they're the only group of the bunch who've significantly underperformed their pythag. Just by runs and runs allowed, they're playing below their talent level even with all the injuries. Doesn't mean jack squat, of course, if they don't continue to perform the way they have, or if they continue to struggle with RISP and in close games.

I wonder how much pythag is impacted by having a severely unbalanced lineup. Not in handedness, but overall quality. Our best hitters are really good and our worst hitters are godfuckingawful. I'd have to imagine that leads to more LOB, squanders, and the like. A more consistent offense probably gets closer to their pythag than what we're throwing out there.