July: Red Sox discussion, observations and trend tracking...AKA It's not all about the Benjamins

lexrageorge

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Yeah. Unfortunately, look at Baltimore:

Rutschman - 26
Mountcastle - 27
Henderson - 23
Westburg - 25
Cowser - 24
Mateo - 29
Mullins - 29
Santander - 29

With tons more studs coming up through their system.
Not at all convinced the bolded is still correct. Sox system has improved greatly the past couple of years. There may still be a gap, but it's probably a lot smaller than the bolded implies.
 

Rovin Romine

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Because he's an asshole, in his latest column where he very grudgingly admits the Sox are good, Pete Abe likens them scraps and spare parts he once used for some kid project. How can someone be so pig-headed as to be unable to distinguish between spare part players and developing young talents, and draw a salary from the Globe for printing this bullshit? I think this is a bit of what the argument was in the offseason around here, whether you saw the guys on the roster as stuck at their mediocre levels and in need of replacing, or a lot of potential for advancement, but only if you gave them the reps. I was in the latter camp, although I sure as hell didn't see THIS coming.
It's the era we're in. Nobody can admit they were wrong about something. Because who would then trust them in the future?

(Punchline: like anybody reads Pete Abe anyway.)
 

nvalvo

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Red Sox are 9th in power rankings.
The Guardians are 3rd. In terms of the Wild Card, give one to the Yankees and assume the Astros win the Central and its basically Boston/KC/Seattle/MN fighting for two spots.
The series with KC may effect if the Royals are buyers at the trade deadline or not.

View attachment 85233
This is a good analysis, even if I think Astros are pretty unlikely to win the Central.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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6 upcoming home games they really should at least go 4-2 but have a good chance for 5-1. After their play the last few weeks and against the A’s for the first three I fear Cora looking to ease back and rest Duran, Devers and the starters…. I’d love to see them put another game between them and KC and pick up another in the WC before the break.
 

Fishy1

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Anyone have any thoughts on why Booser keeps getting optioned? I mean, I get that he has options and we want to maintain some flexibility, but he's one of only two left relievers, and he's been one of our best in terms of peripherals.

I suppose it's as simple as flexibility.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Anyone have any thoughts on why Booser keeps getting optioned? I mean, I get that he has options and we want to maintain some flexibility, but he's one of only two left relievers, and he's been one of our best in terms of peripherals.

I suppose it's as simple as flexibility.
There are still two lefties in the pen: Bernardino and Horn.

As for why it's Booser, I think it's that Booser's older and perhaps they feel he can handle the yo-yo-ing better than a younger pitcher. Also, he did get an extended look while someone like Horn has only been up a week or so. They may just want to get Horn more reps to see what they have with him.

6 upcoming home games they really should at least go 4-2 but have a good chance for 5-1. After their play the last few weeks and against the A’s for the first three I fear Cora looking to ease back and rest Duran, Devers and the starters…. I’d love to see them put another game between them and KC and pick up another in the WC before the break.
Have we seen any indication that Cora is inclined to give Duran a day off so far this season? It's not like he's lacked opportunity to give him a day off here or there.
 

joe dokes

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Have we seen any indication that Cora is inclined to give Duran a day off so far this season? It's not like he's lacked opportunity to give him a day off here or there.
In fact, there have been a number of stories lately noting that Cora challenged Duran to ready to play all 162. (Or Duran promised the same.) It seems really unlikely that Cora would choose this week for his 1st day off of the season, barring some sort of injury or other likely-logical reason. (Like Duran has been slumping over the last 2 weeks, so maybe he is dragging.)
Seems to me that this is just another of the frequent "fears" of Cora closing his eyes and letting go of the steering wheel as he merges into rush-hour highway traffic. ("I'd love for the Sox to make the playoffs, but I'm afraid Cora will have Bobby Dalbec pitching and batting leadoff in Game 1.")
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Anyone have any thoughts on why Booser keeps getting optioned? I mean, I get that he has options and we want to maintain some flexibility, but he's one of only two left relievers, and he's been one of our best in terms of peripherals.

I suppose it's as simple as flexibility.
One of three; it seems like they’ve decided that they prefer Horn to Booser as the second lefty, for whatever reason.
 
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SirPsychoSquints

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I'm not sure mankind has devised anything more useless than Power Rankings.

Updated Vegas odds would be much more connected to reality.
Fanduel WS odds:

  1. LAD +300
  2. PHI +480
  3. NYY +500
  4. BAL +700
  5. ATL +900
  6. CLE +2000
  7. MIN +2000
  8. SEA +2000
  9. HOU +2000
  10. MIL +2500
  11. SDP +4000
  12. STL +5000
  13. BOS +5000
  14. ARI +7000
  15. NYM +7000
  16. KCR +7000
  17. TEX +8000

Fangraphs odds of winning the WS
https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds/fg/mlb
  1. LAD 16.2%
  2. PHI 13.6%
  3. NYY 11.8%
  4. BAL 9.7%
  5. ATL 9.3%
  6. MIN 8.0%
  7. CLE 4.8%
  8. HOU 4.6%
  9. MIL 3.8%
  10. SEA 3.6%
  11. SDP 3.3%
  12. STL 2.5%
  13. BOS 2.0%
  14. NYM 1.5%
  15. ARI 1.4%
  16. SFG 1.0%

And lastly, their estimate of each teams's winning percentage going forward:
  1. ATL .560
  2. LAD .559
  3. NYY .557
  4. HOU .543
  5. PHI .539
  6. MIN .533
  7. BAL .527
  8. SDP .526
  9. ARI .521
  10. NYM .520
  11. SFG .520
  12. SEA .518
  13. TEX .517
  14. TBD .509
  15. CHC .506
  16. STL .506
20th BOS .493

They just don't believe the Sox are that good.

To compare the first two lists, Fangraphs likes MIN, SDP, STL, NYM better than FanDuel. FanDuel likes (or is suckering people more) LAD, NYY, PHI, BAL, SEA more than Fangraphs.

Both Fangraphs and FanDuel think the Sox have around a 2% chance of winning the World Series. From the odds report, 2% to win the division (have to overcome both NYY/BAL), 46% to get a Wild Card (90% chance of 2nd place ALC getting one, 98% chance of 2nd place ALE getting one, then the Sox the most likely to get the last one, with Royals 24%, 2nd place ALW ~27%, Devil Rays 13%). 23% to make it to the second round (2% clinch bye, 21/46 = 46% to win the WC round), 10.6% to reach the ALCS (45% chance to win the ALDS assuming they make it), 4.7% chance to reach the WS (44% to win the ALCS assuming they make it), 2.0% to win the WS (43% chance to win the Series assuming they make it).

If we think the Sox are, against neutral opponents, a better than .500 team, then these estimates are all low. And go bet some money on the Sox, because Vegas doesn't think we are either!
 

HfxBob

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Nov 13, 2005
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Fanduel WS odds:

  1. LAD +300
  2. PHI +480
  3. NYY +500
  4. BAL +700
  5. ATL +900
  6. CLE +2000
  7. MIN +2000
  8. SEA +2000
  9. HOU +2000
  10. MIL +2500
  11. SDP +4000
  12. STL +5000
  13. BOS +5000
  14. ARI +7000
  15. NYM +7000
  16. KCR +7000
  17. TEX +8000

Fangraphs odds of winning the WS
https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds/fg/mlb
  1. LAD 16.2%
  2. PHI 13.6%
  3. NYY 11.8%
  4. BAL 9.7%
  5. ATL 9.3%
  6. MIN 8.0%
  7. CLE 4.8%
  8. HOU 4.6%
  9. MIL 3.8%
  10. SEA 3.6%
  11. SDP 3.3%
  12. STL 2.5%
  13. BOS 2.0%
  14. NYM 1.5%
  15. ARI 1.4%
  16. SFG 1.0%

And lastly, their estimate of each teams's winning percentage going forward:
  1. ATL .560
  2. LAD .559
  3. NYY .557
  4. HOU .543
  5. PHI .539
  6. MIN .533
  7. BAL .527
  8. SDP .526
  9. ARI .521
  10. NYM .520
  11. SFG .520
  12. SEA .518
  13. TEX .517
  14. TBD .509
  15. CHC .506
  16. STL .506
20th BOS .493

They just don't believe the Sox are that good.

To compare the first two lists, Fangraphs likes MIN, SDP, STL, NYM better than FanDuel. FanDuel likes (or is suckering people more) LAD, NYY, PHI, BAL, SEA more than Fangraphs.

Both Fangraphs and FanDuel think the Sox have around a 2% chance of winning the World Series. From the odds report, 2% to win the division (have to overcome both NYY/BAL), 46% to get a Wild Card (90% chance of 2nd place ALC getting one, 98% chance of 2nd place ALE getting one, then the Sox the most likely to get the last one, with Royals 24%, 2nd place ALW ~27%, Devil Rays 13%). 23% to make it to the second round (2% clinch bye, 21/46 = 46% to win the WC round), 10.6% to reach the ALCS (45% chance to win the ALDS assuming they make it), 4.7% chance to reach the WS (44% to win the ALCS assuming they make it), 2.0% to win the WS (43% chance to win the Series assuming they make it).

If we think the Sox are, against neutral opponents, a better than .500 team, then these estimates are all low. And go bet some money on the Sox, because Vegas doesn't think we are either!
I agree, there are much worse investments than laying a few dollars on the Sox right now.
 

lexrageorge

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Tankathon has Red Sox strength of schedule ranked 14th at 0.504, with the toughest games being the 17 against Orioles, Yankees, and Dodgers. So Fangraphs projecting a 0.551 team to go 0.493 the rest of the way seems overly bearish by quite a bit. According to baseball-reference, the Sox are slightly about AL average in batting and lead the AL in ERA+ and tied for 2nd in FIP.

Still, the slightly under 50% odds of reaching the playoffs seem right. Orioles are probably winning the division, and the Sox are still 4.5 games behind NYY. 5 teams are in the immediate hunt for the 3 wild card spots, and there are 4 more teams that cannot yet be counted out, even if it will soon be getting late early for them.

Then winning from the wild card requires winning 4 playoff rounds, and assuming 50/50 odds puts any random team's chances at slightly over 6%. Adding in road team disadvantages, it's maybe more like 5.5%; and then add in that better teams are at least slight favorites, I would say those WS odds for the Sox are about right. Still, it seems like an opportunity here for a long shot bet to pay off.
 

SirPsychoSquints

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Tankathon has Red Sox strength of schedule ranked 14th at 0.504, with the toughest games being the 17 against Orioles, Yankees, and Dodgers. So Fangraphs projecting a 0.551 team to go 0.493 the rest of the way seems overly bearish by quite a bit. According to baseball-reference, the Sox are slightly about AL average in batting and lead the AL in ERA+ and tied for 2nd in FIP.

Still, the slightly under 50% odds of reaching the playoffs seem right. Orioles are probably winning the division, and the Sox are still 4.5 games behind NYY. 5 teams are in the immediate hunt for the 3 wild card spots, and there are 4 more teams that cannot yet be counted out, even if it will soon be getting late early for them.

Then winning from the wild card requires winning 4 playoff rounds, and assuming 50/50 odds puts any random team's chances at slightly over 6%. Adding in road team disadvantages, it's maybe more like 5.5%; and then add in that better teams are at least slight favorites, I would say those WS odds for the Sox are about right. Still, it seems like an opportunity here for a long shot bet to pay off.
Fangraphs has the Sox at the 3rd highest in baseball, .511! Does tankathon use current winning percentage?

Big differences between Fangraphs's expected W% and actual:
  1. CWS, .419 v .280 (3 games remain for Sox)
  2. MIA, .447 v .356 (0 games)
  3. OAK .436 v .370 (3)
  4. LAA .463 v .411 (0)
  5. CHC .507 v .462 (0)
  6. TOR .501 v .456 (7)

  1. CLE .480 v .629 (0)
  2. BAL .528 v .633 (7)
  3. PHI .540 v .644 (0)
  4. MIL .501 v .582 (0)
  5. BOS .493 v .551 (0)
  6. KCR .484 v .533 (6)
Interestingly, there's an equal number of games left against each of these lists.
 

lexrageorge

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Fangraphs has the Sox at the 3rd highest in baseball, .511! Does tankathon use current winning percentage?

Big differences between Fangraphs's expected W% and actual:
  1. CWS, .419 v .280 (3 games remain for Sox)
  2. MIA, .447 v .356 (0 games)
  3. OAK .436 v .370 (3)
  4. LAA .463 v .411 (0)
  5. CHC .507 v .462 (0)
  6. TOR .501 v .456 (7)

  1. CLE .480 v .629 (0)
  2. BAL .528 v .633 (7)
  3. PHI .540 v .644 (0)
  4. MIL .501 v .582 (0)
  5. BOS .493 v .551 (0)
  6. KCR .484 v .533 (6)
Interestingly, there's an equal number of games left against each of these lists.
Tankathon uses actual winning %. It seems Fangraphs is slow to adjust their priors. Cleveland projected to go 0.480 is almost certainly incorrect. Could happen, of course, but should not be assumed to be the modal outcome.
 

SirPsychoSquints

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Tankathon uses actual winning %. It seems Fangraphs is slow to adjust their priors. Cleveland projected to go 0.480 is almost certainly incorrect. Could happen, of course, but should not be assumed to be the modal outcome.
I think I was misreading some of this. FG's Rest of Season Winning % appears to be AFTER the impact of strength of schedule, not before. So they have the Sox at .493 AFTER considering their 3rd hardest strength of schedule. Cleveland's is 2nd in MLB, TBD is 1st.
 

E5 Yaz

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I fear Cora looking to ease back and rest Duran, Devers and the starters…. I’d love to see them put another game between them and KC and pick up another in the WC before the break.
Why the heck would he do that in the days before the longest break in the schedule? It makes no sense
 

Rovin Romine

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Anyone have any thoughts on why Booser keeps getting optioned? I mean, I get that he has options and we want to maintain some flexibility, but he's one of only two left relievers, and he's been one of our best in terms of peripherals.

I suppose it's as simple as flexibility.
He came up on April 19 and pitched that day, then was optioned on June 24 (day after pitching.) He had been doing well up until that point but pitched 3 days in a row (back to back to back). Then they optioned him on the 24th when they thought they were getting Campbell back. (Campbell had a 2.19 ERA in 12 rehab appearances in WOR.)

So I think they knew they were sending him to WOR to rest or felt they had to given the schedule. Campbell was supposed to take the load but then he flamed out. Horn came up for Campbell on 6/28. Meanwhile in WOR, Booser got a bit of a rest. He pitched on the 28th and July 3rd (getting a bit knocked around both times.)

Booser's second call up was July 5th, due to Martin going on the 15 day DL (beginning July 4) and he pitched that day against the Yanks. Guys in WOR were: Booser, Uwasawa, Criswell, Uwasawa, Speas, Campbell (just sent down). And if you're going to pick one for late inning relief, Booser seems to be the guy.


So one possibility is they burned him out a bit, expected Campbell to take the load, then called him up as a Martin stopgap, but his arm is bothering him or he's still fatigued.

I'm curious to see who they bring up though.
 

Cassvt2023

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He came up on April 19 and pitched that day, then was optioned on June 24 (day after pitching.) He had been doing well up until that point but pitched 3 days in a row (back to back to back). Then they optioned him on the 24th when they thought they were getting Campbell back. (Campbell had a 2.19 ERA in 12 rehab appearances in WOR.)

So I think they knew they were sending him to WOR to rest or felt they had to given the schedule. Campbell was supposed to take the load but then he flamed out. Horn came up for Campbell on 6/28. Meanwhile in WOR, Booser got a bit of a rest. He pitched on the 28th and July 3rd (getting a bit knocked around both times.)

Booser's second call up was July 5th, due to Martin going on the 15 day DL (beginning July 4) and he pitched that day against the Yanks. Guys in WOR were: Booser, Uwasawa, Criswell, Uwasawa, Speas, Campbell (just sent down). And if you're going to pick one for late inning relief, Booser seems to be the guy.


So one possibility is they burned him out a bit, expected Campbell to take the load, then called him up as a Martin stopgap, but his arm is bothering him or he's still fatigued.

I'm curious to see who they bring up though.
I think it's going to be Trey Wingenter....
 

Rovin Romine

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I think it's going to be Trey Wingenter....
Seems likely - but he has options.

Frankly that trade is just puzzling. He has only two pitches really - fastball and slider. So it's not like he can just drop the weaker one (FB). And if Bailey had a magic FB tweak, he might have used it instead of getting everyone to drop theirs.

You'd think they have someone in the org who could manage a 5 ERA. Unless they traded one fungible guy in the minors for one in the majors they could DFA later on.

But they have to take a guy off the 40 for Wingenter anyway. . .

It just has a weird feel to it.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Hmmm, ok. Theoretically, having another RH infield bat instead of Valdez makes sense. Not sure Westbrook is that guy, but it’s kind of what we’ve got.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Hmmm, ok. Theoretically, having another RH infield bat instead of Valdez makes sense. Not sure Westbrook is that guy, but it’s kind of what we’ve got.
It looks like they're facing two lefties against Oakland, which might explain it. Making the move now also reduces the number of games Valdez would miss as they can bring him back for the first series after the all star break.
 

grimshaw

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Tankathon uses actual winning %. It seems Fangraphs is slow to adjust their priors. Cleveland projected to go 0.480 is almost certainly incorrect. Could happen, of course, but should not be assumed to be the modal outcome.
Cleveland has a rough road ahead which could be part of the reason they are down on both the Sox and Guardians. The Sox' is even harder since the other teams aren't playing the true elites as many games - like the O's. Yanks, Phillies and Dodgers.

There are 12 teams in MLB that are at least 5 games over .500.
Games remaining vs all of them.

Red Sox - 29 (+6 against Houston)
Cleveland - 29 (+3 against Houston)
Houston - 29
Minnesota - 27
KC - 27
Yankees - 25
Mariners - 12
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Yankees dropped another and are really collapsing. I don’t expect it to last as I’m sure they will make a deal to upgrade their lineup weakness and should expect Stanton to be back (while he’s not what he used to be, he’s still dangerous as hell).
But it was unimaginable and I was even told to knock it off here only two weeks ago when I saw the possibility of catching them. They’ve got a rough schedule and the Sox could pick up another game or two before the ASB- which would put them 1.5 back.
 

Cassvt2023

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Yankees dropped another and are really collapsing. I don’t expect it to last as I’m sure they will make a deal to upgrade their lineup weakness and should expect Stanton to be back (while he’s not what he used to be, he’s still dangerous as hell).
But it was unimaginable and I was even told to knock it off here only two weeks ago when I saw the possibility of catching them. They’ve got a rough schedule and the Sox could pick up another game or two before the ASB- which would put them 1.5 back.
They're only two back in the loss column as we speak, and they've got 2 more against Oakland...
 

SirPsychoSquints

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Yankees dropped another and are really collapsing. I don’t expect it to last as I’m sure they will make a deal to upgrade their lineup weakness and should expect Stanton to be back (while he’s not what he used to be, he’s still dangerous as hell).
But it was unimaginable and I was even told to knock it off here only two weeks ago when I saw the possibility of catching them. They’ve got a rough schedule and the Sox could pick up another game or two before the ASB- which would put them 1.5 back.
They're only two back in the loss column as we speak, and they've got 2 more against Oakland...
But would ALSO have to pass the Orioles to win the division - or are we just talking about the joy of finishing ahead of the MFY?
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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This is a great way to wrap up the first half ( I know it's past the actual "halfway" point) of the season. A chance to both put some distance between the closest WC competition and also, with the O's and MFY's facing off... they'll pick up games in the ALE division race (which I can't believe I'm not conceding). Let's hope for a sweep but winning 2/3 gains at least one game on either the O's and MFY's.
 

nattysez

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The schedule is pretty rocky (pun intended) after the ASG aside from three at Colorado:
3@LAD
3@COL
3vMFY
3vSEA

With the trade deadline on July 30 and the quality of the teams the Sox will be facing (LA excellent, COL horrible), Breslow is probably not going to get much useful data from the games before the break trade deadline.

As a preview, August starts out really rough:
3@TEX
3@KC
3vHOU
3vTEX
3@BAL
3@HOU

No easy series there, especially with both Houston and Texas starting to straighten themselves out.
 
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Rovin Romine

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The schedule is pretty rocky (pun intended) after the ASG aside from three at Colorado:
3@LAD
3@COL
3vMFY
3vSEA

With the trade deadline on July 30 and the quality of the teams the Sox will be facing (LA excellent, COL horrible), Breslow is probably not going to get much useful data from the games before the break.

As a preview, August starts out really rough:
3@TEX
3@KC
3vHOU
3vTEX
3@BAL
3@HOU

No easy series there, especially with both Houston and Texas starting to straighten themselves out.
Some of this depends on the injury status of various teams. The Dodgers, while not a pushover, are down their two best starters, along with Muncy, Heyward, and Betts.

The MFYs are 4-8 in July.

Meanwhile the Sox have shown they can hang in there with very tough teams.
 
I mentioned this at the start of the season, and I'll repeat it again: the Red Sox getting their West Coast road trip in right at the start is a nice gift from the schedulers. The guys can get out there early with plenty of time to adjust. It may not be a big factor, but not being hungover from travel for the Dodger's series could be a nice edge.
 

Heating up in the bullpen

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The series before the Detroit series, 5/27-29 @ BAL, was the last series they lost (1-2) before going on their run. Since then :
vs DET 2-2
vs ATL 1-1
@ CHW 2-2 -- including the pivotal Sunday 6/9 10 inning 6-4 win that brought them back to .500
vs PHI 2-1 (6/11-13) Opening game loss put them at 33-34. They've gone 16-6 since.
vs NYY 2-1
@ TOR 3-0
@ CIN 2-1
vs TOR 2-1
vs SD 1-2 -- lone series loss since end of May
@ MIA 3-0
@ NYY 2-1
vs OAK 2-1
vs KC 2-1
Three series splits at the beginning of the run, 5 wins, a loss, and 4 more wins
------------------
Gotta like their chances of keeping it going into the ASB at home against OAK and KC
Now 26-14 since 5/30, with four straight series wins heading into the ASB (9-1 overall in last 10 series).

21-9 in their last 30 games, tied for best MLB record for that span (Mets), one better than HOU, two better than MIN, 10 better than MFY.

Overall 53-42, two games ahead of KC for third WC spot, 0.5 behind MIN for 2nd WC, 3.5 behind MFY for 1st WC, 4.5 behind BAL for AL East. 24-25 at home, 29-17 on the road (tied with BAL and MFY for MLB best at +12).

Coming out of the ASB, playing @ LAD (7/19-21) and @ COL (7/22-24). Dodgers 3-7 in their last 10, 9-11 last 20, 15-15 last 30. Rockies 4-6, 7-13, 10-20. Then at home vs MFY (7/26-28) and SEA (7/29-31) heading into the July 30 trade deadline.
--------------------
Is a 4-2 road trip coming out of the break too much to ask for?
 

joe dokes

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Now 26-14 since 5/30, with four straight series wins heading into the ASB (9-1 overall in last 10 series).

21-9 in their last 30 games, tied for best MLB record for that span (Mets), one better than HOU, two better than MIN, 10 better than MFY.

Overall 53-42, two games ahead of KC for third WC spot, 0.5 behind MIN for 2nd WC, 3.5 behind MFY for 1st WC, 4.5 behind BAL for AL East. 24-25 at home, 29-17 on the road (tied with BAL and MFY for MLB best at +12).

Coming out of the ASB, playing @ LAD (7/19-21) and @ COL (7/22-24). Dodgers 3-7 in their last 10, 9-11 last 20, 15-15 last 30. Rockies 4-6, 7-13, 10-20. Then at home vs MFY (7/26-28) and SEA (7/29-31) heading into the July 30 trade deadline.
--------------------
Is a 4-2 road trip coming out of the break too much to ask for?
And, out of all those games/series, the only one that disappointed me was the loss to Detroit, where they came back and I thought they had it won.
I know the White Sox stink, but the Red Sox were depleted and on fumes that weekend and, as someone noted, the Sunday win was much more important than salvaging a series split against a terrible team would appear to be.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2007
6,862
Now 26-14 since 5/30, with four straight series wins heading into the ASB (9-1 overall in last 10 series).

21-9 in their last 30 games, tied for best MLB record for that span (Mets), one better than HOU, two better than MIN, 10 better than MFY.

Overall 53-42, two games ahead of KC for third WC spot, 0.5 behind MIN for 2nd WC, 3.5 behind MFY for 1st WC, 4.5 behind BAL for AL East. 24-25 at home, 29-17 on the road (tied with BAL and MFY for MLB best at +12).

Coming out of the ASB, playing @ LAD (7/19-21) and @ COL (7/22-24). Dodgers 3-7 in their last 10, 9-11 last 20, 15-15 last 30. Rockies 4-6, 7-13, 10-20. Then at home vs MFY (7/26-28) and SEA (7/29-31) heading into the July 30 trade deadline.
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Is a 4-2 road trip coming out of the break too much to ask for?
It's crazy to look at first place in the ALE and see a relatively quick and easy path to getting there. Just unimaginable only a few weeks ago.....
But...... wow that schedule coming out of the ASB looks treacherous and I could see them losing the momentum and falling apart.
 

SirPsychoSquints

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Jul 13, 2005
5,641
Pittsburgh, PA
The schedule is pretty rocky (pun intended) after the ASG aside from three at Colorado:
3@LAD
3@COL
3vMFY
3vSEA

With the trade deadline on July 30 and the quality of the teams the Sox will be facing (LA excellent, COL horrible), Breslow is probably not going to get much useful data from the games before the break.

As a preview, August starts out really rough:
3@TEX
3@KC
3vHOU
3vTEX
3@BAL
3@HOU

No easy series there, especially with both Houston and Texas starting to straighten themselves out.
I assume you mean before the deadline. The useful information will be wins and losses and the resultant spot in the standings, not evaluations of players and their quality. Current Fangraphs playoff odds are 52.5% - so the Sox are contenders unless they lose a LOT in the next couple weeks. But, if they DID, say, go 3-9 including getting swept by the MFY, then we might suddenly be on the outside looking in.