July: Red Sox discussion, observations and trend tracking...AKA It's not all about the Benjamins

RS2004foreever

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fwiw I am not sure why people would want Valdez more than Grissom (who has had few at bats). Hamilton might be a different story - but let's see how he looks after 100+ PA.
I still think Grissom is the right guy at second.

The next 25 days are huge. We will get a better sense of what we have with Abreu/Hamilton/Rafaela. I would hope we would get a sense of when Casas will come back.

A good month and I would expect they would add starting pitching (we should be thinking big - Scherzer) and a big bat (depending on Casas return Alonso).
 

YTF

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fwiw I am not sure why people would want Valdez more than Grissom (who has had few at bats). Hamilton might be a different story - but let's see how he looks after 100+ PA.
I still think Grissom is the right guy at second.

The next 25 days are huge. We will get a better sense of what we have with Abreu/Hamilton/Rafaela. I would hope we would get a sense of when Casas will come back.

A good month and I would expect they would add starting pitching (we should be thinking big - Scherzer) and a big bat (depending on Casas return Alonso).
I have a couple of thoughts concerning Valdez vs Grissom. Like any trade it depends greatly on the other player(s) involved. If the Sox are offering multiple players you might take Valdez depending on what the package is. Some teams might also be a bit leery of Grissom given his limited playing time this season.
 

Sam Ray Not

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June 14: Yankees pound Sox at Fenway 8-1 to move to 50-22. Sox fall to 35-35, 14 games back.

Collect your prize if you had the Sox picking up 9.5 games on them over the next three weeks.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Sox are now 28-16 on the road, the best winning % of any team in baseball (based on my quick look at the standings). Pretty impressive. Yes they should be better at home, but teams that win on the road and don’t give up leads are pretty good. And enjoyable to watch.
 

Rasputin

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Six years and four days ago, the Red Sox got walloped by the Yankees to fall into a tie. We then won ten in a row, thirteen out of fourteen, and fifteen out of seventeen to go up by six. Next time we played them, we swept a four gamer and put the division away for good.

I think we should do more of that winning shit.
 

soxhop411

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Rasputin

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There's two things I love about this team.

One, they really cut down on the stupid from last year and earlier this year.

Two, steals aside, this is a good, aggressive baserunning team. I'm writing this in the bottom of the third of the Saturday game against the Yankees and in the previous half inning, both Valdez and Yoshida went first to third on balls that weren't hit that hard.
 

JimD

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So every ESPN Sunday game in July will feature the Sox? Yay, I guess, that the Sox are relevant and in demand for national broadcasts. Ugh because Sunday night games suck. Sundays, more than any other day of the week, are for day baseball.
Sunday night games suck a lot less when the Red Sox win in a crisp 2:23.
 

BaseballJones

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I love this:

Wong - 28 years old
Hamilton - 26 years old
Devers - 27 years old
Duran - 27 years old
Rafaela - 23 years old
Abreu - 25 years old
Casas - 24 years old

Just a wonderful core of guys who are either just starting to hit their prime or are still on the ascension into their primes.
 

RS2004foreever

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I love this:

Wong - 28 years old
Hamilton - 26 years old
Devers - 27 years old
Duran - 27 years old
Rafaela - 23 years old
Abreu - 25 years old
Casas - 24 years old

Just a wonderful core of guys who are either just starting to hit their prime or are still on the ascension into their primes.
Crawford - 28
Houck - 28
Bello - 25

No one close to free agency really either.
 

bosockboy

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I love this:

Wong - 28 years old
Hamilton - 26 years old
Devers - 27 years old
Duran - 27 years old
Rafaela - 23 years old
Abreu - 25 years old
Casas - 24 years old

Just a wonderful core of guys who are either just starting to hit their prime or are still on the ascension into their primes.
Throw in:

Houck-28
Bello-25
Crawford-28

Plus the Big 3 coming.
 

JimD

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I love this:

Wong - 28 years old
Hamilton - 26 years old
Devers - 27 years old
Duran - 27 years old
Rafaela - 23 years old
Abreu - 25 years old
Casas - 24 years old

Just a wonderful core of guys who are either just starting to hit their prime or are still on the ascension into their primes.
Crawford - 28
Houck - 28
Bello - 25

No one close to free agency really either.
It's almost like Chaim Bloom knew what he was doing.
 

Heating up in the bullpen

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Thanks for the clarification. I must have heard it wrong.
To add, their only Sunday loss was 6/2 to the Tigers. They’d already won 2/3 of the series. Devers homered in the 8th to tie the game at 4-4. A two-out rally in the 9th loaded the bases, but Wong flied out. Booser gave up 4 in the 10th, and there was no more rallying.
That came on the heels of their 12-16 May, at the beginning of 15-10 June.
 

Heating up in the bullpen

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To add, their only Sunday loss was 6/2 to the Tigers. They’d already won 2/3 of the series. Devers homered in the 8th to tie the game at 4-4. A two-out rally in the 9th loaded the bases, but Wong flied out. Booser gave up 4 in the 10th, and there was no more rallying.
That came on the heels of their 12-16 May, at the beginning of 15-10 June.
The series before the Detroit series, 5/27-29 @ BAL, was the last series they lost (1-2) before going on their run. Since then :
vs DET 2-2
vs ATL 1-1
@ CHW 2-2 -- including the pivotal Sunday 6/9 10 inning 6-4 win that brought them back to .500
vs PHI 2-1 (6/11-13) Opening game loss put them at 33-34. They've gone 16-6 since.
vs NYY 2-1
@ TOR 3-0
@ CIN 2-1
vs TOR 2-1
vs SD 1-2 -- lone series loss since end of May
@ MIA 3-0
@ NYY 2-1
Three series splits at the beginning of the run, 5 wins, a loss, and two more wins
------------------
Gotta like their chances of keeping it going into the ASB at home against OAK and KC
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I can't seem to find a recent "pitching" thread but was hoping someone way smarter than me to talk about the general pitching. Houck has looked kinda crappy recently although one of his last two times he was looking good, had the rain delay and then struggled with command. Bello has looked better. Pivetta, Crawford. Winchowski really wasn't bad (considering he's a 'depth' starter). Kenley has looked dominant. I'm worried more about the middle relief lately being taxed. Hopefully the ASB will help- I hope Houck doesn't pitch- and that's the one realistic spot to improve with a deal that would't hurt the upper tier prospect guys
 

BaseballJones

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When they lost 4-1 to Philly on June 11, they stood at 33-34, on pace to win 80 games, and they were 14 games out of first.

Since then, they've gone 16-6 (.727), putting their record at 49-40, on pace to win 89 games, and they're 7.5 games out of first.

Over these 22 games, they've gone:

2-0 vs. Phi
4-2 vs. NYY
4-1 vs. Tor
2-1 vs. Cin
3-0 vs. Mia
1-2 vs. SD
 

Fishy1

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I can't seem to find a recent "pitching" thread but was hoping someone way smarter than me to talk about the general pitching. Houck has looked kinda crappy recently although one of his last two times he was looking good, had the rain delay and then struggled with command. Bello has looked better. Pivetta, Crawford. Winchowski really wasn't bad (considering he's a 'depth' starter). Kenley has looked dominant. I'm worried more about the middle relief lately being taxed. Hopefully the ASB will help- I hope Houck doesn't pitch- and that's the one realistic spot to improve with a deal that would't hurt the upper tier prospect guys
Yeah, our starting pitching has been good because there's been no bad performances except for Bello. One more elite pitcher or frankly position player would put them over the top and into the elite team grouping.

I'm not worried about middle relief. I think Weissert and Horn are going to get optioned sometime soon to get a little time off. They'll add someone of the group of Speas, Campbell, Criswell, or Mata tot he 26th man to soak up some innings, I'd guess, without looking too closely at things. And Hendriks threw another bullpen the other night without issue, so he's a potential "trade" for an elite reliever if everything goes well.
 
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BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Throw in:

Houck-28
Bello-25
Crawford-28

Plus the Big 3 coming.
Yeah. Unfortunately, look at Baltimore:

Rutschman - 26
Mountcastle - 27
Henderson - 23
Westburg - 25
Cowser - 24
Mateo - 29
Mullins - 29
Santander - 29

With tons more studs coming up through their system.
 

JimD

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Yeah. Unfortunately, look at Baltimore:

Rutschman - 26
Mountcastle - 27
Henderson - 23
Westburg - 25
Cowser - 24
Mateo - 29
Mullins - 29
Santander - 29

With tons more studs coming up through their system.
I'd take our chances in a short series. These Sox seem to thrive when everyone doubts them.
 

GB5

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Bello threw 157 innings last year, he is at 87 this year, so he is fine.

Cutter is at 105.2, he was 129.1 last year so he needs to be watched.

Pivetta is at 68.2, he was 142.2 last year so he is ok

Wink is at 39 coming off 84.1 last year so he is going to be in trouble.

Houck is already at 111 after 106 last year.

What is the best way to handle Houck?
 

nvalvo

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Bello threw 157 innings last year, he is at 87 this year, so he is fine.

Cutter is at 105.2, he was 129.1 last year so he needs to be watched.

Pivetta is at 68.2, he was 142.2 last year so he is ok

Wink is at 39 coming off 84.1 last year so he is going to be in trouble.

Houck is already at 111 after 106 last year.

What is the best way to handle Houck?
I've been thinking about this. I'm less worried about Winck, because he threw 132 innings across all levels in 2022.

We should look for guys to add about 45 or 50 innings year over year, so Cutter should be able to go 180 — but if we make the playoffs, things get a bit dicey. Houck is the guy in really innings trouble by that metric, but he's older, so I wonder how the team views his cap.

I would note that both Houck and Cutter have options remaining, and you need 20 days in the minors to burn one in any case. One could call up Criswell for a month and send each guy on a little ten-day vacation to Worcester: skip a start, throw a four-inning tuneup, come back on the other guy's spot.

Or we could trade for a starter.
 

joe dokes

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FWIW--Sox have off days on the 1st three Thursdays after the break (7/25, 8/1, and 8/8). Then they have a nasty 13-game run vs Hou, TX, @Bal and @Hou.
Other offdays are 8/22, 9/5, 9/16, and 9/26.
Maybe (hopefully?), the ASB combined with extra day's rest in late July and early August will help the pitchers over the final 6 weeks.
 
Oct 12, 2023
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I've been thinking about this. I'm less worried about Winck, because he threw 132 innings across all levels in 2022.

We should look for guys to add about 45 or 50 innings year over year, so Cutter should be able to go 180 — but if we make the playoffs, things get a bit dicey. Houck is the guy in really innings trouble by that metric, but he's older, so I wonder how the team views his cap.

I would note that both Houck and Cutter have options remaining, and you need 20 days in the minors to burn one in any case. One could call up Criswell for a month and send each guy on a little ten-day vacation to Worcester: skip a start, throw a four-inning tuneup, come back on the other guy's spot.

Or we could trade for a starter.
I would think optioning Houck isn’t going to happen. Maybe giving him an extra day off between a start or two if they’re worried about workload management, but sending one of the best pitchers in baseball to AAA for a “vacation” seems like it would be a nonstarter even if it makes sense from a roster perspective.
 

nvalvo

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I would think optioning Houck isn’t going to happen. Maybe giving him an extra day off between a start or two if they’re worried about workload management, but sending one of the best pitchers in baseball to AAA for a “vacation” seems like it would be a nonstarter even if it makes sense from a roster perspective.
Teams manipulate their bullpens using options all the time, and the new CBA has a provision setting limits to the extent they can do that.

You obviously don't do this unless Houck and Crawford are on board with the plan, presumably because they want to make playoff starts and this is a way to make that happen without being short in the bullpen.
 

YTF

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I would think optioning Houck isn’t going to happen. Maybe giving him an extra day off between a start or two if they’re worried about workload management, but sending one of the best pitchers in baseball to AAA for a “vacation” seems like it would be a nonstarter even if it makes sense from a roster perspective.
Yeah, I think that a couple of time through the rotation as the season wears on you see someone come to start a game and effectively become a 6th starter to push everyone back a start for an extra day off.
 
Oct 12, 2023
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Teams manipulate their bullpens using options all the time, and the new CBA has a provision setting limits to the extent they can do that.

You obviously don't do this unless Houck and Crawford are on board with the plan, presumably because they want to make playoff starts and this is a way to make that happen without being short in the bullpen.
Can you think of a single #1 or 2 starter, amongst the league’s best pitchers who was sent to the minors for workload management?

It’s one thing to shuffle your relievers around, but I’d say it’s almost (if not entirely) unheard of to send a guy of Houck’s experience and current performance to the minors.

They’re more likely to skip a start and just shuffle Booser/Campbell/whoever back and forth to keep a fresh arm in the pen while Houck sits a few days
 

nvalvo

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Can you think of a single #1 or 2 starter, amongst the league’s best pitchers who was sent to the minors for workload management?

It’s one thing to shuffle your relievers around, but I’d say it’s almost (if not entirely) unheard of to send a guy of Houck’s experience and current performance to the minors.

They’re more likely to skip a start and just shuffle Booser/Campbell/whoever back and forth to keep a fresh arm in the pen while Houck sits a few days
I cannot. But I can think of a lot of examples of probable IL manipulation, but that stuff gets you in trouble now.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Yeah, I think that a couple of time through the rotation as the season wears on you see someone come to start a game and effectively become a 6th starter to push everyone back a start for an extra day off.
They've already done that a couple times combining team off-days and bullpen games. Bringing up Criswell to go with a true 6-man rotation, especially in concert with scheduled off-days, for a couple turns in late July or August may well be in the plans. Ditto if they acquire a starter in trade.

I really don't see them sending Crawford or Houck down for the purposes of load management. Not unless they absolutely hit a wall, in which case they're more likely to IL them than option them. I think we're more likely to see those guys continue to take the ball regularly and throw as many innings as they can. There is no magic number at which they'll cut either of them off, IMO. It will all be by feel and health.
 

Cassvt2023

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I think they'd be more likely to put Houck on the 10 day IL with "dead arm" or some other made up injury to get him some rest if they thought he needed it. There is no way they send him to minors.
 

Cassvt2023

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I think something that is not getting enough attention in this stretch of really good baseball has been the defense. I'm not going to research any advanced metrics, jut my eye test from watching the games. They are generally making the routine plays, turning the double play, outfielders are throwing to the correct base, pitchers are covering 1st base, etc... Raffy's barehanded play last night was exceptional. Duran is playing both CF and LF very well. Ceddanne is elite in CF and has stabilized SS when he is there. Hammy and Valdez went from poor to adequate. Dom can pick it at 1B. It is no coincidence that when they play relatively clean baseball, the win. So many were burying them early in the season when they were sloppy, i think it's time to recognize the improvement.
 

chrisfont9

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Because he's an asshole, in his latest column where he very grudgingly admits the Sox are good, Pete Abe likens them scraps and spare parts he once used for some kid project. How can someone be so pig-headed as to be unable to distinguish between spare part players and developing young talents, and draw a salary from the Globe for printing this bullshit? I think this is a bit of what the argument was in the offseason around here, whether you saw the guys on the roster as stuck at their mediocre levels and in need of replacing, or a lot of potential for advancement, but only if you gave them the reps. I was in the latter camp, although I sure as hell didn't see THIS coming.
 

RS2004foreever

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Red Sox are 9th in power rankings.
The Guardians are 3rd. In terms of the Wild Card, give one to the Yankees and assume the Astros win the Central and its basically Boston/KC/Seattle/MN fighting for two spots.
The series with KC may effect if the Royals are buyers at the trade deadline or not.

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