Juan Soto is on the trade block; rejects $440 million contract extension from Washington
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Why cherry pick the first two years of a hypothetical Soto deal if the Sox have him for 12-15 years? Shouldn't the question be "will the Sox, in the next 12-15 years with Soto, be in legit title contention?"
Well, those are the years you are trading assets for. The additional years you have to negotiate and come to agreement on. Granted, it’s likely that the acquiring team extends him but it’s not part of the deal.
I don't think it is that likely that the acquiring team is able to extend him, especially with Boras as his agent. Machado and Scherzer both got traded, then went to FA, and it looks like that will be the case with Trae Turner too. Matt Olson signed with ATL right away after being traded but that was in large part because he is from ATL. Mookie is a special case with Covid hitting in his walk year, but I think the consensus is that he would have gone to FA if Covid hadn't happened.
Anyway, pulling numbers out of my ass, I would say there is maybe a 30-50 percent chance Soto signs long-term with the team that trades for him.
Anyway, pulling numbers out of my ass, I would say there is maybe a 30-50 percent chance Soto signs long-term with the team that trades for him.
I got you, understood. Other chatter here recently debated what kind of 2022 team and season Bloom and the Sox braintrust were expecting (aka what they were happy with). I fell on the side of "with more league parity and two WC slots be competitive enough to be in it and make a run."
So I don't think Soto would put them over the hump in 2022, but I also don't think that was the front office's 2022 expectation. So a Soto trade wouldn't be for this year's stretch run and the next two years, but be a cornerstone for their upward trend over the next few years. Especially if in the room Bloom is messaging that the Sox intend to lock up Devers and spend money to build around him.
Edited to add: As a Boras client of course Soto may just go FA regardless of who gets him. Which would mean my hoping any of the local color in Soto's origin stories (Sox fan, idolatry of Williams/Ortiz etc) makes a difference to him and where he wants to go.
I dunno, this is a different situation. Machado and Scherzer, they were 3 months from FA and I think the Dodgers didn't really plan on signing them, so they were priced accordingly. I feel like the team who empties the system for Soto knows what it will cost to lock him up and will be prepared to pay it. It's not a lock but if you want to give me even money I'd bet heavy on the team trading for him signing him long term.
I know we can't discount the Boras influence, but I think it is more likely than not that Soto will extend if he gets a richer long term offer with opt outs and probably not one that sets new benchmarks on AAV. 2.5 years is a long time to wait to cash in and a lot can happen in that time. The opt outs will be key.
The prospect humping around here continues.
The amount of top Red Sox prospects (or any team, for that matter) that don't work is staggering. There is no "sure thing" as a prospect. For 99.8% of prospects, you can only pray they become Juan Soto. Barring injury, the kids going to be a perennial top 5 MVP candidate for the next decade.
The list of comparable players that BR profiles him with is staggering. Trout, Frank Robinson, Mantle, Griffey, Kaline, Hank Aaron, Eddie Matthews, Miggy...I mean, you're not talking just about Hall of Famers. You're talking about generational, transcendent talents. You average out his last three seasons of games for the next ten years - feels fair as he hasn't reached his apex yet - and you're talking about a top 40 WAR (80+ WAR), top 20 Offense above average (660+ Off) career. And he'll only be 33.
While you think about that, here's a list of Red Sox offensive prospects that ranked in the top 25 since 2003:
Andrew Benintendi - 1st (finished twice in top 25)
Xander Bogaerts - 2nd (finished twice in top 25)
Yoan Moncada - 3rd
Hanlez Ramirez - 10th (Finished twice in top 25)
Jacoby Ellsbury - 13th
Lars Anderson - 17th
Blake Swihart - 17th
Rafael Devers - 18th (finished twice in top 25)
Rusney Castillo - 21st
Ryan Westmoreland - 21st
I know its crude math with a few assumptions, but they're a combined 596 Off, still 10% short of Soto if he called it a career at 33. Obviously Devers will be making waves, but you get the point. Thats the 10 top hitting prospects the Red Sox have had over the last 20 years. We have no idea where our prospects end up, but we pretty much know they will never be Juan Soto. I mean, on average, Devers is the best producer on that list and he basically produces 1/3 the Off that Soto produces.
Whatever it takes, give it. And then more.
The amount of top Red Sox prospects (or any team, for that matter) that don't work is staggering. There is no "sure thing" as a prospect. For 99.8% of prospects, you can only pray they become Juan Soto. Barring injury, the kids going to be a perennial top 5 MVP candidate for the next decade.
The list of comparable players that BR profiles him with is staggering. Trout, Frank Robinson, Mantle, Griffey, Kaline, Hank Aaron, Eddie Matthews, Miggy...I mean, you're not talking just about Hall of Famers. You're talking about generational, transcendent talents. You average out his last three seasons of games for the next ten years - feels fair as he hasn't reached his apex yet - and you're talking about a top 40 WAR (80+ WAR), top 20 Offense above average (660+ Off) career. And he'll only be 33.
While you think about that, here's a list of Red Sox offensive prospects that ranked in the top 25 since 2003:
Andrew Benintendi - 1st (finished twice in top 25)
Xander Bogaerts - 2nd (finished twice in top 25)
Yoan Moncada - 3rd
Hanlez Ramirez - 10th (Finished twice in top 25)
Jacoby Ellsbury - 13th
Lars Anderson - 17th
Blake Swihart - 17th
Rafael Devers - 18th (finished twice in top 25)
Rusney Castillo - 21st
Ryan Westmoreland - 21st
I know its crude math with a few assumptions, but they're a combined 596 Off, still 10% short of Soto if he called it a career at 33. Obviously Devers will be making waves, but you get the point. Thats the 10 top hitting prospects the Red Sox have had over the last 20 years. We have no idea where our prospects end up, but we pretty much know they will never be Juan Soto. I mean, on average, Devers is the best producer on that list and he basically produces 1/3 the Off that Soto produces.
Whatever it takes, give it. And then more.
Soto's ZiPS projections for the rest of his arb years:
2023: .313/.466/.595 (7.9 WAR)
2024: .305/.464/.589 (7.7 WAR)
After 2024, he'd be entering his age 26 season. I'd trade just about everything for Soto in a heartbeat. 12/$440M to top Mike Trout's extension in AAV, give him an opt-out after year 6 to get a chance at another monster contract in his age 31/32 season, whatever it takes.
2023: .313/.466/.595 (7.9 WAR)
2024: .305/.464/.589 (7.7 WAR)
After 2024, he'd be entering his age 26 season. I'd trade just about everything for Soto in a heartbeat. 12/$440M to top Mike Trout's extension in AAV, give him an opt-out after year 6 to get a chance at another monster contract in his age 31/32 season, whatever it takes.
That’s a compelling post KFP. But would you give anything and everything if you felt there was no better than a 50% chance that you could sign him beyond the two years you’d have him?
I think there are definitely some teams that should consider it, the ones who already are about as “all-in” as possible. This is why I keep coming back to San Diego, because who is more motivated to make a deal than AJ Preller? And they have CJ Abrams and Mackenzie Gore to offer. If money is a problem, they can get creative and do something like bring in a third team to take like, Snell or Darvish off their hands and maybe give that team a nice lotto ticket for their troubles.
Regarding the “prospect humping”, it’s interesting to hear people (sometimes the same ones) arguing that the Red Sox future is bright because of the highly ranked system, but also, that the teams best prospects can be traded because they will probably suck and rankings can’t be trusted.
Then again, at one point every great player was just a prospect; and somewhere, someone was probably suggesting trading then for sure things.
So, let’s say they get Soto. Who are they surrounding him with? Are we just assuming a complete change of strategy and they throw $ at everyone?
Then again, at one point every great player was just a prospect; and somewhere, someone was probably suggesting trading then for sure things.
So, let’s say they get Soto. Who are they surrounding him with? Are we just assuming a complete change of strategy and they throw $ at everyone?
They won’t throw money at everyone. Soto and Devers should be in the team making a total of about $70-75m between them. They will still have young players and prospects to fill in cheaply. They’ll still have Verdugo and Story on the roster. Kiké for another year. They can fill in the rest of the team for $150m, I’d think. Not sure if they’d be a 100 win squad but they could absolutely field a playoff team like this.
They've spent $200M routinely in the past. You could give the guy $33-35M a year, pay Devers $25-27M a year, and if you paid average salary per position (according to Spotrac), you would still have $60M to play with. That's enough for 2 top quality starters ($15-25M) and a few upgrades across the lineup/bullpen.
And that doesn't include any arb eligible/smart veteran contract signings.
I am all aboard the Soto train, and am realistic about the price. But this is off a bit IMO. The value of prospects doesn't lie in the chance that they will be HOFers. It's that they will, hopefully, be productive, above average players for a very cheap salary, allowing you to offset the part of your roster who are no longer in the cost-control portion of their career. So while Marcelo Mayer is highly, highly unlikely to be as good as Juan Soto, he doesn't have to be in order to be just as valuable, for the start of his career. anyway.
Put another way, if you had a guy whom you could somehow guarantee would have the exact same first 6 years as Devers or Bogaerts, would you trade that guy for Soto?
That's part of it, but the other part is that prospects are the currency for buying good players from other teams. If you spend them all on Soto, you don't have much left for any other needs.
Other players currently in the system not named Mayer, Casas, Bello, etc. will emerge. New players will be drafted. Some of those guys will emerge. Chaim has shown to have solid chops in building a farm system quickly. Why not get the star and let your GM do what he probably does best? For me, this hypothetical Soto acquisition would be a much scarier proposition under a GM like Dombrowski than Chaim.
I'm surprised that people here are talking about Mayer and Casas instead of a different scenario. If I'm honest, I don't see the Sox as a good trade partner here, but they do have a route where they sell Bogaerts, JDM, Eovaldi, and anyone else that can fill the prospect pool up and then ship those guys off for Soto. I don't think Chaim would ever want to empty the cupboard but he doesn't have to is he sells. Soto wouldn't be meant to help the team this year, offense is not your problem.
I’d be fine with that too but I don’t think rentals for those guys will yield the prospects needed to obtain Soto.
Then keep the rental hauls as your new farm and send over your best. Whichever it is, the combo of buy/sell doesn't leave the farm empty.
Agreed, plus that is a whole lot to ask a front office to do in two weeks, while at the same time they need to be signing draftees (deadline August 1).
Putting aside the rest for a moment, 15m-25m doesn't get you two top starters. Guys in that range are ERod, Morton, Ryu, Lynn and Stroman. If you plan to sign two top FA starters it'll cost more than that.
Plus, both Soto and Devers will cost more than KFP is projecting. I’m still 100% on board with giving the Nationals whomever they’d like and then sign Soto and Devers what they need to keep them around for a long time. Chaim will have his work cut out for him in restocking the minor league cupboards, though.
If the money is there, think it’s reasonable to assume there’s a better than 50 percent chance, given the story about Soto growing up idolizing Pedro, Manny and Ortiz.
Yes, this exactly. (Except the Kiké bit, he’d a FA this offseason).
They can spend up to $281M in 2025 without any sort of team-building penalty! There is a ton of money to spend. Henry was one of the few owners willing to exceed the cap when penalties were strict. Now that they’re less strict (and teams like the Mets and Phillies are comfortable going over), why are we assuming he won’t spend?
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I feel like if this was really a big thing, he would have signed with BOS to begin with, not WAS.
Consider the source, but this is what Jim Bowden just wrote on the Soto trade.
--The return should be the biggest haul of any trade in MLB history regardless of an immediate extension or not.
--The Nationals will try to make the acquiring team also take back Patrick Corbin's contract.
His 10 realistic trade partners
--Yankees: Volpe/Dominguez/Waldichuck plus 1-2 young major league players such as Michael King and Gleyber Torres
--Rays: Josh Lowe/Vidal Brujan/Taj Bradley/and 2 of Cole Wilcox/Sandy Gaston/Ian Seymour/Nick Bitsko
--Blue Jays: either Teoscar Hernandez or Lourdes Gurriel Jr, either Ricky Tiedmann or Nate Pearson, and their pick of top infield prospects Orelvis Martinez, Jordan Groshans, and Otto Lopez
--White Sox: Eloy Jimenez or Andrew Vaughn, WSH's pick of either Colson Montgomery or Jose Rodriguez, and an OF prospect.
--Mariners: Either Emerson Hancock or George Kirby plus their pick of Jarred Kelenic or Kyle Lewis, and possibly Noelvi Marte.
--Mets: Jeff McNeil, Dom Smith, Ronny Mauricio, and either Brett Baty or Mark Vientos
--Cards: Jordan Walker, either Tyler O'Neill or Dylan Carlson, Brendan Donovan, Masyn Winn, Alec Burleson, and Michael McGreevy
--Dodgers: Gavin Lux, Bobby Miller, Miguel Vargas, and Wilman Diaz
--Padres: MacKenzie Gore, Robert Hassell III, CJ Abrams, and Kevin Kopps
--Giants: Luis Matos, Kyle Harrison, and either Heliot Ramos or Jairo Pomares, plus mid-level prospects.
https://theathletic.com/3435069/2022/07/20/juan-soto-mlb-trade-market/?source=user_shared_article
--The return should be the biggest haul of any trade in MLB history regardless of an immediate extension or not.
--The Nationals will try to make the acquiring team also take back Patrick Corbin's contract.
His 10 realistic trade partners
--Yankees: Volpe/Dominguez/Waldichuck plus 1-2 young major league players such as Michael King and Gleyber Torres
--Rays: Josh Lowe/Vidal Brujan/Taj Bradley/and 2 of Cole Wilcox/Sandy Gaston/Ian Seymour/Nick Bitsko
--Blue Jays: either Teoscar Hernandez or Lourdes Gurriel Jr, either Ricky Tiedmann or Nate Pearson, and their pick of top infield prospects Orelvis Martinez, Jordan Groshans, and Otto Lopez
--White Sox: Eloy Jimenez or Andrew Vaughn, WSH's pick of either Colson Montgomery or Jose Rodriguez, and an OF prospect.
--Mariners: Either Emerson Hancock or George Kirby plus their pick of Jarred Kelenic or Kyle Lewis, and possibly Noelvi Marte.
--Mets: Jeff McNeil, Dom Smith, Ronny Mauricio, and either Brett Baty or Mark Vientos
--Cards: Jordan Walker, either Tyler O'Neill or Dylan Carlson, Brendan Donovan, Masyn Winn, Alec Burleson, and Michael McGreevy
--Dodgers: Gavin Lux, Bobby Miller, Miguel Vargas, and Wilman Diaz
--Padres: MacKenzie Gore, Robert Hassell III, CJ Abrams, and Kevin Kopps
--Giants: Luis Matos, Kyle Harrison, and either Heliot Ramos or Jairo Pomares, plus mid-level prospects.
https://theathletic.com/3435069/2022/07/20/juan-soto-mlb-trade-market/?source=user_shared_article
Many of those seem light to me compared to what we’ve been discussing here, the Giants and Blue Jays ones in particular. How does Toronto have anything left to trade even?
It's Bowden. He basically just writes whatever diarrhea makes it from his brain to his keyboard. I don't usually shit talk writers (I couldn't do as well as most of them), but I have no idea why The Athletic still has him on staff.
I mean, Josh Lowe strikes out more than Juan Soto gets on base, and he has him as the centerpiece of a Rays deal.
A lot of that is just due to timing. Mookie Betts was once a top 5 prospect in baseball. He just lost prospect status before he could be ranked on any end of season list. By the time he reached Boston he was all the rage. What happens when you add Mookie Betts to all your math? Luckily for you, he did miss the cut off so you can use this argument even though it's dishonest.
Also, once you get into the top 10 and to a lesser degree, the top 20, they get pretty close to sure things. Especially the hitters. Lars and Blake failed. Rusney should never have been rated on a prospect list. Who knows what would have been with RWM but that's a one off thing. I guess it depends on what your definition of a sure thing is though. I'm not counting Rusney so 6/9 succeeded. One of the 3 who failed did so due to non baseball reasons. Add Betts into the conversation and you are at 7/10.
If you want to argue we should trade away the farm, that's one thing. But even your list suggest top 20 prospects are more of a sure thing than not. Top 10 especially.
They’ve been selectively thrifty and people have a sour taste in their mouths from Mookie walking and potentially Xander walking.
Again, Soto is the guy you make every exception for. He’ll be 4 years younger than Mookie was when Boston traded him.
These things can get overblown and I don’t mean to keep citing it like it’s some guiding light. But it does seem like enough to convince me that he wouldn’t have an aversion to signing with Boston, should they trade for him.
Agreed. Bowden is the worst of the Athletic, and he writes so much. I'm just a bit shocked he doesn't have the Sox there--he usually has them in every article he publishes. It must goose his SEO.
First point is true or at least in the ballpark (Chris Sale was locked up for a longer period of time and for less $ when he was traded, so it comes down to how much teams value the window to pay what it takes for Boras to avoid FA).
Second point is ludicrous. I mentioned this earlier but one of the biggest assets the Nats will have the next couple of years is the capacity to absorb big deals while they know they won't win -- their payroll has been close to 200 mil in the past, and all they will have left at big $$ will be Strausburg. The bill on Corbin is 60 mil, that will mean a lot less in prospects coming back. If anything, they should take on some other team's bad deal to get even more prospects in return.
Anything's possible but he has an ERA+ of 68 over 270 innings the past two years. If he were a FA he'd be very, very cheap.
He has decent numbers first time through the order this year (3.34 FIP). He seems rosterable as a middle-inning reliever at least.
No reason to put any stock into what Bowden thinks at all, but after reading him, I do wonder how much young, cost-controlled talent already at the MLB level that Washington will want.
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You think? It seemed that the issue Sotos team has was with the AAV (under $30M a year). $35M a season puts him at the "top paid positional player" category with Trout and Correa.
I think the problem is you projected Devers at 25m. Rendon's AAV is 35m.
Is this true? Theres only a handful of pitchers in baseball with contract AAV over $25M AAV. You may not be able to afford a Gerrit Cole contract, but Wheeler, Stroman, etc all seem to be in that wheelhouse.
Arozarena, Paredes, J Lowe, Baz, Brujan, Patiño
I am going to will this into happening
I’m guessing Soto at $37M and Devers at closer to $30M. YMMV.
MLB Nerds is a pretty good follow and I think our own @Brand Name follows/knows them as well. Not sure how seriously to take these rumors yet.
View: https://twitter.com/MLBNerds/status/1549805376660541446?s=20&t=DFO7oGGDfxBi8EGsp3-MOw
View: https://twitter.com/MLBNerds/status/1549805376660541446?s=20&t=DFO7oGGDfxBi8EGsp3-MOw
The Cardinals could offer a great package for him. Dylan Carlson, Jordan Walker, Matthew Liberatore, and some lower level guys. Or include Nolan Gorman as well/instead of Liberatore. IDK much about Brendan Donovan as a permanent replacement for Gorman at 2B. With Wainwright, Molina, and Pujols in their last seasons, might make sense to Cardinals fans to mortgage some of their future to get a chance at a storybook WS win. Jordan Walker is the 7th ranked prospect on MLB.com and blocked at 3B by Arenado, who has said he does not plan to opt out of his contract.
Cards have always felt like a strong contender to me. They’re not shy about blockbuster deals and they have a very good combo of young talent and guys in minors.