JoKe

sean1562

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i think he is a really solid 8 inning/set up guy, but would def be hesitant to forgo signing Kimbrel/another closer with the idea that Kelly is cheaper and can graduate to that role. Solid piece of a great bullpen, but would be nervous if he was "the guy"
 

teddywingman

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i think he is a really solid 8 inning/set up guy, but would def be hesitant to forgo signing Kimbrel/another closer with the idea that Kelly is cheaper and can graduate to that role. Solid piece of a great bullpen, but would be nervous if he was "the guy"
I might be the biggest Joe Kelly fan on this board, and I completely agree with you.
 

grimshaw

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I actually think Joe will get a job as a starter somewhere next season now that he is throwing 4 pitches. I'd be on board giving him another shot here if Drew prices himself out. If he fails, then they can use him in high leverage spots again.
 

RedOctober3829

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I actually think Joe will get a job as a starter somewhere next season now that he is throwing 4 pitches. I'd be on board giving him another shot here if Drew prices himself out. If he fails, then they can use him in high leverage spots again.
I wouldn’t try him as a starter again. He’s finally in a role that he’s succeeding in. Don’t jerk him around.
 

gedman211

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Won't Kimbrel be looking for another $50 million deal? Sounds prohibitive. I would guess they will try to lock Kelly down at $5-6 million a year and give him the closer gig.
 

nvalvo

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Won't Kimbrel be looking for another $50 million deal? Sounds prohibitive. I would guess they will try to lock Kelly down at $5-6 million a year and give him the closer gig.
I am less confident headed into next offseason than I ever have been that I have any idea what players are worth.
 

JohnnyTheBone

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Fightin' Joe Kelly as a starter now that he's added to his repertoire is intriguing, but the Daniel Bard experience causes considerable hesitation.
 

Byrdbrain

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Fightin' Joe Kelly as a starter now that he's added to his repertoire is intriguing, but the Daniel Bard experience causes considerable hesitation.
Daniel Bard lost the strike zone before he became a starter and not because he became a starter.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Fightin' Joe Kelly as a starter now that he's added to his repertoire is intriguing, but the Daniel Bard experience causes considerable hesitation.
I don't know how many times it has to be said, but the disintegration of Bard's career had nothing to do with his conversion to being a starter. That's not meant as an endorsement of the idea of converting Kelly back to the rotation, just that Bard isn't exactly the best argument against it.

I think whether Kelly goes back to starting is something that is entirely up to him. He's a free agent at the end of the year, and where he goes and how much he expects to get will dictate what he does. If he has an excellent season as a set-up guy, he'll be in demand on the market and will probably command a decent salary this winter (probably more than $5-6M AAV).

The question is whether he thinks he can be the same dominant pitcher as a starter and whether he can find a team willing to pay for that type of starter rather than that type of reliever. It could mean a few extra million per year in salary for him if he does. What I don't see happening is Kelly signing somewhere to be a starter but agreeing to a deal commensurate with that of a quality set-up man.
 

DeadlySplitter

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he has said he enjoys the adrenaline of this role, we know he's a quirky guy in personality. I don't think going into FA to start is a lock.
 

chrisfont9

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I'm a bit curious as to how you say this such conviction. Can you elaborate? It certainly coincided with that conversion.
Here's Bard explaining how it wasn't so simple as the conversion to starter, in his own words:
https://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2018/1/4/16797700/daniel-bard-retirement
Here are some splits from the 2011 season, on the eve of his switch to starting, that show he was... what's a polite way to say this... an unmitigated fucking disaster as a reliever for his last dozen appearances.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=bardda01&year=2011&t=p
 

chrisfont9

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Also Kelly has 79 major league starts across five ML seasons under his belt, including 35 in Boston, where he was just north of replacement level. He's 30 now so while you can't rule anything out and every pitcher is a unique person, his own history makes it pretty hard to imagine. Bard's experience isn't the reason to doubt if he can do it; it's Kelly's experience that makes me dubious.
 

Adrian's Dome

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30 year old Joe Kelly is not going to be sought after, or signed, as a starter.

He will get a market rate deal (whatever the market turns out to be) for a very good setup man. A team may pay him closer money, and if so, good for him. It may be Boston if Kimbrel walks, it may be someone else, or it may be nobody at all, in which case he gets that said setup contract, but there is no chance a major league team is paying FA-eligible Joe Kelly to be a definitive part of their starting rotation.
 

grimshaw

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30 year old Joe Kelly is not going to be sought after, or signed, as a starter.

He will get a market rate deal (whatever the market turns out to be) for a very good setup man. A team may pay him closer money, and if so, good for him. It may be Boston if Kimbrel walks, it may be someone else, or it may be nobody at all, in which case he gets that said setup contract, but there is no chance a major league team is paying FA-eligible Joe Kelly to be a definitive part of their starting rotation.
I guess I should back off on it being a strong possiblity, but I do think there is a chance. There is a recent example of the Rangers looking under a rock for a starter. Mike Minor got 3 yrs 28 mill after being a top reliever the season before after a replacement level season as a starter in 2016. Teams who don't care about winning in the next year or two may want to roll the dice and go relatively cheap in their rebuild. If he gets paid more to be a closer which seems only slightly more likely, then god bless him.

I wouldn't have thought there was a chance before, but he is throwing his secondary pitches a lot more and getting good results.
 
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judyb

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I'm a bit curious as to how you say this such conviction. Can you elaborate? It certainly coincided with that conversion.
I can certainly understand why you wouldn't want to remember September, 2011, but when one thing so obviously starts happening months before another thing, coincided might not be the best way to describe when those two things happened.
 

Van Everyman

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Here's Bard explaining how it wasn't so simple as the conversion to starter, in his own words:
https://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2018/1/4/16797700/daniel-bard-retirement
Here are some splits from the 2011 season, on the eve of his switch to starting, that show he was... what's a polite way to say this... an unmitigated fucking disaster as a reliever for his last dozen appearances.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=bardda01&year=2011&t=p
That was great, thx for sharing.

That said, having read that, I wouldn’t exactly discount the move to a starting job as a contributor to Bard’s decline. It may well have been that he would’ve stunk out of the bullpen in 2012 – but my takeaway from that article is that Bard struggled with non-physical issues throughout most of his career. It’s hard to think that moving him to the rotation didn’t at least contribute to his command issues given his track record. I also wonder whether he was poorly served by the staff turnover, losing Farrell after 2010 and Theo and Tito following 2011 as these were guys who knew Bard’s track record and how he’d found his way out of it before.

What any of that has to do with Joe Kelly, I do not know, however.
 

Cesar Crespo

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That was great, thx for sharing.

That said, having read that, I wouldn’t exactly discount the move to a starting job as a contributor to Bard’s decline. It may well have been that he would’ve stunk out of the bullpen in 2012 – but my takeaway from that article is that Bard struggled with non-physical issues throughout most of his career. It’s hard to think that moving him to the rotation didn’t at least contribute to his command issues given his track record. I also wonder whether he was poorly served by the staff turnover, losing Farrell after 2010 and Theo and Tito following 2011 as these were guys who knew Bard’s track record and how he’d found his way out of it before.

What any of that has to do with Joe Kelly, I do not know, however.
Wasn't it discovered that Bard actually had the same thing Thornsburg does/did?
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Wasn't it discovered that Bard actually had the same thing Thornsburg does/did?
Yes, the article chrisfont9 posted mentions it. They described it as a "mild" case of thoracic outlet syndrome that very likely impacted Bard's pitching but did not exhibit the typical symptoms (numbness in the hands). He ended up having surgery to correct it after the Sox cut him (they let him go in September 2013, he had surgery in January 2014).

He had other issues as well, some of them mental, that snowballed on him as well. Looking at his story in total, it seems like the run he had from 2008 when he seemed to put it together in the minors through when the wheels started to come off in September 2011 was more the apparition than his control struggles before and after.
 

soxhop411

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Kelly has a 9.98 ERA since June 1st....


At this point shouldn't you DL him, so he can work on whats ailing him?
 

DeadlySplitter

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he pumpkined. this is who he is.

the fact he put it together for awhile was surprising in and of itself.
 

Dewey'sCannon

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I made a last minute decision to go to the game last night. Very frustrating. Sox hit four HRs but still lose to the lowly O's.

Kelly is clearly broke. Got the first guy on a one-pitch 5-3, but then walked the worst batter in the league, Chris Davis. Then just didn't pay attention and let him steal second base, and followed this up by walking another sub .200 hitter. Those walks really came back to kill him.

But Nunez was largely responsible for what happened next. Bogie makes a nice play on the ball up the middle, but Nunez doesn't cover second. Inexcusable. While his D may be passable at 3B, especially as a sub for Devers or against a LH starter, I don't understand why Cora keeps putting him at 2B. Nunez cost them the game as much as Kelly did.
 

Al Zarilla

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I made a last minute decision to go to the game last night. Very frustrating. Sox hit four HRs but still lose to the lowly O's.

Kelly is clearly broke. Got the first guy on a one-pitch 5-3, but then walked the worst batter in the league, Chris Davis. Then just didn't pay attention and let him steal second base, and followed this up by walking another sub .200 hitter. Those walks really came back to kill him.

But Nunez was largely responsible for what happened next. Bogie makes a nice play on the ball up the middle, but Nunez doesn't cover second. Inexcusable. While his D may be passable at 3B, especially as a sub for Devers or against a LH starter, I don't understand why Cora keeps putting him at 2B. Nunez cost them the game as much as Kelly did.
Re Nunez, I was going to say that Cora plays him at second against lefties (even though Holt has a reverse batting split) and maybe to “baby” Holt somewhat so he’s healthy for the playoffs. But, Nunez has played nearly twice as many games at second as Holt (67-37). That’s too much. Another caveat, Holt missed a bunch of games this year due to injury, but it’s still too much. Cora either is blind to Nunez’ bad play at second or Nunez has the old 8 1/2 x 11 glossies on his manager. I know, Kelly thread.
 

DeadlySplitter

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So you didn't watch baseball last year, and think 99 mph fastballs mixed with good secondary pitches won't cut it. Good to know.
His FB is most often too straight and all his pitches go through periods of poor command

His results have been much less than his stuff all his career
 

teddywingman

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It hasn't cut it yet. He's probably costs himself some serious money in the last 2 months.
If the season ended today. And even a strong finish won't make up for the fact that he's been bad for two months. But I'm optimistic that he'll be more like the pitcher we saw in April, May, and most of last year.
 

Van Everyman

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If Kelly went back to April/May Kelly today thru the rest of the year it would def. “cut it.” Hell, it would probably cut it if he just pitched a bit above league average for the rest of the year at this point.

No, Kelly won’t be lining up to be someone’s (the Red Sox?) closer next year unless he turns it around. But relievers usually have widely varying performance – from year to year or half to half. If he can begin to put things back together heading into the postseason no one will be lamenting two months in the middle of the season when he sucked while the team was on a 114 win pace.

Edit: Except maybe @bosox79
 
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Cesar Crespo

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If Kelly went back to April/May Kelly today thru the rest of the year it would def. “cut it.” Hell, it would probably cut it if he just pitched a bit above league average for the rest of the year at this point.

No, Kelly won’t be lining up to be someone’s (the Red Sox?) closer next year unless he turns it around. But relievers usually have widely varying performance – from year to year or half to half. If he can begin to put things back together heading into the postseason no one will be lamenting two months in the middle of the season when he sucked while the team was on a 114 win pace.

Edit: Except maybe @bosox79

He's essentially the same pitcher he was last year, just less lucky. I guess it depends on what one defines as "cutting it." He's a decent bullpen arm but he's the type of guy you let walk, not pay. He's not a guy who instills confidence. He's just another bullpen arm. Is he really any better than Heath Hembree or Brandon Workman? What has Joe Kelly done to suggest he is? He doesn't really strike out a lot of guys and he walks a ton.

Like the other guy said, Joe Kelly is who Joe Kelly is.
 

Devizier

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This is far from scientific/predictive, but Kelly seems to be suffering from a recent dip in velocity, which has corresponded to his string of less-than-stellar outings:

 

Adrian's Dome

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This is far from scientific/predictive, but Kelly seems to be suffering from a recent dip in velocity, which has corresponded to his string of less-than-stellar outings:

I don't know if that's predicative of anything, may be just noise. Looks like he's averaging about 97 at the valleys and 98.5 at the peak...that's not too much of a difference at all. It'd be one thing if he went from a consistent 98-99 to 92-93.

I still think the issue with him is fastball command, he just straight up loses it at times, and if he can't get it over for a strike, he's in trouble.
 

uncannymanny

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Cora seemed to say the opposite a couple days ago (can’t find the quote): that he’s missing with his breaking pitches so the hitters are cheating on the FB.
 

TheYaz67

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Gotta say, especially after his performances in games 3, 4 and 5 of the World Series, I am even more convinced than I was before that Joe Kelly is actually a cyborg....
 

MillarTime

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Just want to post this in as many places as possible. One of my favorite moments of the past few weeks.

 

soxhop411

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So. Is Kelly a priority to try and re-up this offseason?

I bet his market will be strong, but hopefully his experience here gives us a leg up
 

TheYaz67

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I would think resigning him is a priority now, and I imagine he wants to stay - let Kimbrel go and re-ink Kelly for a more reasonable deal....
 

Cesar Crespo

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I'm 99.9% sure they'll offer Kimbrel the QO and be happy with the draft pick. I don't see them being serious suitors.

They might be in on Kelly but I don't think the team is going to pay him a premium for his playoff heroics. How much is Joe Kelly worth? Is his small sample size in the playoffs the Joe Kelly we should expect going forward or was he just on one of his hot streaks?

I honestly have no idea what kind of offers Joe Kelly will receive. 3/15? 3/30? Somewhere in between? More? I usually have somewhat of an idea but Kelly's market value has me stumped.

The most impressive thing about his playoff performance was the 13k/0bb in 11.1 IP. For his Redsox career, his bb/9 is 4.1.
 

Sox Puppet

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I was among the fans who had totally given up on him weeks ago.

I guess the JoKe’s on us.
 

JimD

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Joe Kelly made himself a few million dollars this month. Someone will overpay for him.
 

teddywingman

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I hope Joe Kelly signs with the Sox. I had a ton of fun rooting for him, even during the months where he sucked. Something about him I think is a big part of this team's chemistry.
 

shaggydog2000

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I hope Joe Kelly signs with the Sox. I had a ton of fun rooting for him, even during the months where he sucked. Something about him I think is a big part of this team's chemistry.
Joe Kelly is the healthier, mostly relieving (now) cousin of Clay Buchholz. I don't know if they resign him, it would depend on the price he ends up going for, but another short streak of dominance is not going to change their minds on this. He's dominated and been dominated (mostly the latter) his whole career. Each time he goes on a streak we get fooled into thinking there is something different this time, but he always goes back to getting beaten up as well. It's just who he is. And it's useful, and has a value. He's usable in a platoon with other relievers with a similar profile, and you'd ride whoever is the hot hand as the 7th inning guy, for example. But I don't think he's affordable in that role at free agency prices.
 

JimD

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As noted by a poster in the Price thread, Kelly's performance this month goes a long way towards making Sox fans feel better about the John Lackey trade.
 

JohntheBaptist

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I hope Joe Kelly signs with the Sox. I had a ton of fun rooting for him, even during the months where he sucked. Something about him I think is a big part of this team's chemistry.
Major props to you--Kelly was someone coming into the season I was perpetually not impressed with, you saw something there early on. He slumped but recovered when he needed to. You changed my mind on the guy, and it was fun rooting for him and watching him grab the big moments.
 

ledsox

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His post season stats.
9 g, 11.1 ip, 8 h, 2 r, 1 er, 0 bb, 13 k, 0.79 era, 0.71 whip, 10.3 k/9

Pitched in every WS game.
6 ip, 4 h, 10 k

We were sitting behind the Sox dugout in Anaheim in April with the fight club chants going and prime Kelly dealing. That was a blast. It would be nice to have him back.