- Oct 20, 2015
I mean, Diekman's K rate was over 6, and Joely let up far fewer HR's as well. That said, I admit that I don't really get this signing. Joely appears to have had two good 12+ game stretches, and one of them was 7 years ago. I assume it isn't a large contract, but 40 man spots are at a premium right now and I am not sure he is a big enough "upgrade" on the pen to be worth the spot.Why am I getting whiffs of Diekman? He had a good K rate but his walk rate was 4.65. I guess it is worth taking a flyer on him, but I hope Cora doesn't get overly attached to him and keeps him in low leverage situations until he proves he can handle more.
https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2022/11/red-sox-make-first-free-agent-move-signing-reliever-joely-rodriguez-to-1-year-deal-with-option.htmlBoston has signed lefty reliever Joely Rodríguez to a one-year contract with a club option for 2024, according to a team announcement. The deal guarantees $2 million with the option being valued at $4.25 million. Rodriguez will earn a $1.5 million base salary in 2023 with $2 million available in active roster bonuses; the Red Sox then have a $4.25 million club option or a $500k buyout decision for 2024. Each season includes $250,000 in performance bonuses, meaning the deal can max out a $8.25 million over two seasons.
Why does the timing of the signing matter? Maybe they think it's a deal they can't wait on or it'll just get more expensive.To this point, it sure seems like this could be a signing made later in the offseason
- First 29.1 IP (35.0% CH Usage)
- 5.52 ERA (146 ERA-)
- 3.86 FIP (99 FIP-)
- 4.22 SIERA
- 46.6% GB%
- 10.7% K-BB%
- Final 21.0 IP (45.0% CH Usage)
- 3.00 ERA (79 ERA-)
- 2.35 FIP (61 FIP-)
- 2.50 SIERA
- 63.2% GB%
- 20.0% K-BB%
True ... although, if they're going* to sign Bogaerts, Eovaldi, Senga, Jose Abreu, Haniger and trade for Scott Barlow, 40-man spots are at a premiumWhy does the timing of the signing matter? Maybe they think it's a deal they can't wait on or it'll just get more expensive.
They need an anchor type like Jansen to slot everybody where they need to be. Hopefully someone like Mata beats out Brasier because Brasier clearly does not deserve a spot.The bullpen is taking shape.
Houck, Barnes, Schreiber, Brasier, Taylor, Rodriguez, German, Ort, Kelly? With the AAA guys as potential depth.
Bloom loves the one year deal with a club option.
Doesn't give up homers either.Joely's FIP last 2 yrs:
3.43 / 3.23
xFIP last 2 yrs:
3.41 / 3.46
Good GB rates too.
I like their use of Cameron Grove's PitchingBot model, I'm a fan of that as well as the Stuff+ model that The Athletic's Eno Sarris uses. Something they don't get into in that article is how his slider rates, and his platoon splits. PitchingBot hates his slider, gives it Overall/Stuff/Command grades of 45/45/50 (this is on a 20-80 grade scale), which is a bit unusual for a reliever to have a shitty slider these days. Makes me wonder if the Sox plan to use him as an all-around reliever rather than a lefty specialist. His platoon splits were fairly even in terms of wOBA last year, but his K-BB% and xFIP were much better against lefties, despite lacking a quality slider.Empire Sports Media did a deep dive yesterday on why the Yankees should sign him back, which included these splits showing when he increased his changeup usage:
He's not quite as bad as Diekman command-wise. PitchingBot had Diekman's overall command grade at a 40 last year, Joely's was a bit above average at 55. The Stuff+ model (which has a different scale, where 100 is average) also had Joely's command slightly above average at 101.4. Presumably if his improved changeup in the last couple months had been there the full season, those numbers would have been higher. But one thing that's been observed in those pitching models is that while the Stuff metric tends to be "sticky" year to year, the Command metric can be a lot more variable. Which is in agreement with the eye test on a lot of relievers - it's often a coin flip how they're going to perform season to season, and when they go bad it's usually because their command's gone to hell.Why am I getting whiffs of Diekman? He had a good K rate but his walk rate was 4.65. I guess it is worth taking a flyer on him, but I hope Cora doesn't get overly attached to him and keeps him in low leverage situations until he proves he can handle more.
If that holds this year, that's a damn good signing.Doesn't give up homers either.
Among 131 relievers to throw 100 IP from 2020-22, Joely's 0.58 HR/9 was 17th lowest, a smidge better than Collin McHugh and Rafael Montero. In fact,
Rafael Montero '20-22: 135.1 IP, 23.6 K%, 8.1 BB%, 50.5 GB%, 0.60 HR/9, 3.23 FIP, 4.06 ERA
Joely Rodriguez '20-22: 109.1 IP, 25.5 K%, 10.3 BB%, 55.7 GB%, 0.58 HR/9, 3.14 FIP, 4.28 ERA
Montero signs for 3/$34.5 million.
Rodriguez signs for 1/$2 million.
Will not shed a tear. He seemed to really have some potential when he first showed up. Great K stuff but could just never control it and it seemed to start slipping away the more he pitched.The SoxProspects guys seem to think it’s very possible Darwin gets DFA’d, so yes.
I don’t think it works this way, although not positive.Chris Hatfield of SP notes that Rodriguez has just over 3 years of service time, so he’d still be under team control for a year even after the option year is picked up. Won’t be a FA until 2026.