Joe Posnanski: Lord of Lists
- Thread starter John Marzano Olympic Hero
- Start date
Don't know if this has been mentioned elsewhere, but Joe's blog contains a post called "Straw Hats and Calculators", looking at PECOTA - or more accurately, the distrust of many "baseball people" of stats, and their belief that stats are in opposition to the wisdom of scouts - that I thought many folks here would enjoy. Here's the link" http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/03/08...nd-calculators/
So I go over to Joe's site just to see what he has written lately, and I read it, and I'm just about to go someplace else when I see at the top of his blog page a link entitled "The Meaning of Tiger", and I still have that memory of watching Tiger do his thing last Sunday, so, silly me, I click on it thinking that maybe Joe wrote something about Tiger's latest effort, except that I see when the page comes up that it was written last June, and I am kind of disappointed.
What a dolt I am, that's one hell of a read. I'm sure you've all read it before, but if you haven't:
http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2008/06/16...aning-of-tiger/
What a dolt I am, that's one hell of a read. I'm sure you've all read it before, but if you haven't:
http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2008/06/16...aning-of-tiger/
Thanks for the link - that's just a fantastic piece of writing; of course it helps that Greinke is an interesting story, but Posnanski's ability to make you feel connected to the story is what drives it IMHO. His ability to mix anecdotes with his own observations and impressions make him one of the best reads on the web IMHO.
And you gotta love this about Greinke:
Man that's a great story and he got it done pretty quickly, too. Joe Pos is a talented man. . . .unbelievably talented. He's the best writer that I read and he pretty much can take any topic and make it interesting.
EXACTLY.
I mean, could you imagine reading, say, Peter King's makeshift eulogy on this (though I'm sure we'll be treated to some such misery on Monday)? You'd want to down liter fluid and forcibly slide pins up your urethra by his "third thing I think I might think I think".
The 'thoughts and prayers' and 'life is too short' crowds are numerous and hysterical, so Pos is a huge and welcome departure from this self-indulgent circle-jerk.
I like much of what Joe writes, though I find him a little sentimental for my tastes, and somewhat sycophantic with the likes of Michael Schur, but this post is pretty bad.
I'm sure there are Jamesians here who agree that the intentional walk should be eliminated, or, as Joe argues, you should be able to turn it down, but I fail to see how choosing to use the rules of the game to your (perceived) advantage should be eliminated.
Four balls equals a walk. Why shouldn't you be able to throw four balls to a player if you so choose? Joe's reasoning about teaching kids to always face a challenge head on is embarrassing. Hey Johnny, is Peter bothering you? Well, punch him in the face, then. Tackle the problem head on. Just thoughtless, I think, because I don't feel Joe really believes this if taken to some its logical conclusions.
I'm sure there are Jamesians here who agree that the intentional walk should be eliminated, or, as Joe argues, you should be able to turn it down, but I fail to see how choosing to use the rules of the game to your (perceived) advantage should be eliminated.
Four balls equals a walk. Why shouldn't you be able to throw four balls to a player if you so choose? Joe's reasoning about teaching kids to always face a challenge head on is embarrassing. Hey Johnny, is Peter bothering you? Well, punch him in the face, then. Tackle the problem head on. Just thoughtless, I think, because I don't feel Joe really believes this if taken to some its logical conclusions.
[quote name='Pedro's Complaint' post='2228784' date='Apr 22 2009, 08:47 AM']Nice post today on the hitting breakdowns depending on the count. He analyzes the data some but mostly lets the numbers speak for themselves.[/quote]
I was coming in here to highlight that post as well, some really interesting analysis. I particularly liked his closing:
I was coming in here to highlight that post as well, some really interesting analysis. I particularly liked his closing:
A couple of interesting thing's over on Posnanski's blog this week:
Madduz vs. Pedro
More on Maddux and Pedro
In these two posts, Joe tries to decide which of the two had the best seven-year run of all time. The numbers really illustrate how much better than their peers Pedro and Maddux were. The ERA+ numbers specifically are amazing when compared to other historic stretches:
Grienke will be the first Royal on the SI cover in 16 years; should be a great read.
Madduz vs. Pedro
More on Maddux and Pedro
In these two posts, Joe tries to decide which of the two had the best seven-year run of all time. The numbers really illustrate how much better than their peers Pedro and Maddux were. The ERA+ numbers specifically are amazing when compared to other historic stretches:
I'm also looking forward to reading Posnanski's SI cover story on Zach Grienke:
Grienke will be the first Royal on the SI cover in 16 years; should be a great read.
My guess is that you'll be able to find a link to it here:I'm also looking forward to reading Posnanski's SI cover story on Zach Grienke:
Grienke will be the first Royal on the SI cover in 16 years; should be a great read.
http://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?s=&...t&p=2192424
The SI hasn't yet been published (or just been published).
I'm looking forward to it..his Pujols story was really good, and now we've got a Royal to write about.
The Greinke piece was great, but the Snuggie Redux post that just went up is a tour de force. I was looking for quote that does it justice, but you just need to read it.
http://host223.hostmonster.com/suspended.page/
Looks like someone forgot to pay their bill; or he has a plan with a traffic limit and saw a sudden spike.
Looks like someone forgot to pay their bill; or he has a plan with a traffic limit and saw a sudden spike.
On Facebook, he said that they shut him down because his site was "too popular". He's moving from Hostmonster to Go Daddy and the site should be back up at some point this weekend.
Edited to add: See? Facebook IS good for something!
QUOTE (BucketOBalls @ Jul 7 2009, 04:54 PM) index.php?act=findpost&pid=2405008
Everyonein a while Poz manages to absolutely nail something, and I think this is one of those times.
I happened along that one yesterday. Good job posting it, it was a great column. Picturing Pos playing tennis makes me laugh because he appears to be a pretty big dude.
Edit - This phenomenal quote is taken from this post: Joe Pos brilliance
QUOTE
The thing that drives you nuts about Pena is that he’s like the Albert Pujols of bad offensive players — he de-excels (ex-excels? non-excels?) at all levels. He can’t hit, of course, and he hits for no power. But he also cannot bunt — I mean he’s an embarrassingly bad bunter. This is really hard to take. He can’t run at all. He will not allow a pitcher to walk him. You measure his bat speed by knots, and his swing is so long that Hollywood wants to release it as two different movies.
Everyonein a while Poz manages to absolutely nail something, and I think this is one of those times.
I happened along that one yesterday. Good job posting it, it was a great column. Picturing Pos playing tennis makes me laugh because he appears to be a pretty big dude.
Edit - This phenomenal quote is taken from this post: Joe Pos brilliance
QUOTE
The thing that drives you nuts about Pena is that he’s like the Albert Pujols of bad offensive players — he de-excels (ex-excels? non-excels?) at all levels. He can’t hit, of course, and he hits for no power. But he also cannot bunt — I mean he’s an embarrassingly bad bunter. This is really hard to take. He can’t run at all. He will not allow a pitcher to walk him. You measure his bat speed by knots, and his swing is so long that Hollywood wants to release it as two different movies.
God I love him.
QUOTE
This will be short and to the point because I have a column to write.
You know I despise the intentional walk. You know I think it’s anti-competition. You know I think it is cowardly. You know I think that, very often, it’s a stupid strategy too.
OK. Take all that animosity I feel for the intentional walk. OK? You got it. Now double it. And, now, double it again. Now, multiply that total by pi, add 3X with X being how much I despised the movie “North.” OK, now take that whole total, double it one more time, add 6Y with Y being how much I cannot despise the song “We Didn’t Start The Fire.” OK, you got that in your mind, can you envision that much enmity, that much hostility, that much loathing.
Good. Multiply that by five million.
And that’s how much I hated seeing the intentional walk in the All-Star Game.
QUOTE
This will be short and to the point because I have a column to write.
You know I despise the intentional walk. You know I think it’s anti-competition. You know I think it is cowardly. You know I think that, very often, it’s a stupid strategy too.
OK. Take all that animosity I feel for the intentional walk. OK? You got it. Now double it. And, now, double it again. Now, multiply that total by pi, add 3X with X being how much I despised the movie “North.” OK, now take that whole total, double it one more time, add 6Y with Y being how much I cannot despise the song “We Didn’t Start The Fire.” OK, you got that in your mind, can you envision that much enmity, that much hostility, that much loathing.
Good. Multiply that by five million.
And that’s how much I hated seeing the intentional walk in the All-Star Game.
He likes, really, really likes, “We Didn’t Start The Fire"?
That drops him miles down the peg board, not plunging to Michael Kay territory, but ending up far below respectable.
Say it ain't so, Joe.
That drops him miles down the peg board, not plunging to Michael Kay territory, but ending up far below respectable.
Say it ain't so, Joe.
QUOTE (joyofsox @ Jul 16 2009, 03:02 PM) index.php?act=findpost&pid=2425213
He likes, really, really likes, “We Didn’t Start The Fire"?
That drops him miles down the peg board, not plunging to Michael Kay territory, but ending up far below respectable.
Say it ain't so, Joe.
But it was always burning since the world's been turning.
He likes, really, really likes, “We Didn’t Start The Fire"?
That drops him miles down the peg board, not plunging to Michael Kay territory, but ending up far below respectable.
Say it ain't so, Joe.
But it was always burning since the world's been turning.
http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/08/04...nd-yes-my-life/
Ladies and gentlemen, you're new senior writer for Sports Illustrated.
Ladies and gentlemen, you're new senior writer for Sports Illustrated.
Great news. Per the latest blog post, SI will allow Joe to continue to write on his blog and write occasional stories for the KC Star.
QUOTE (SocrManiac @ Aug 5 2009, 12:52 PM) index.php?act=findpost&pid=2473959
We are!?!? That's fantastic!
Damn. It was early. I've been screwing up contractions all over the place recently. I think I need a vacation.
We are!?!? That's fantastic!
Damn. It was early. I've been screwing up contractions all over the place recently. I think I need a vacation.
I received a gift SI subscription for XMas last year. While I've enjoyed receiving it, I was wondering if I should renew for next year. Wonder no longer. I'll definitely re-up.
QUOTE (Smiling Joe Hesketh @ Aug 5 2009, 02:14 PM) index.php?act=findpost&pid=2474150
I received a gift SI subscription for XMas last year. While I've enjoyed receiving it, I was wondering if I should renew for next year. Wonder no longer. I'll definitely re-up.
This is your SI Xmas gift for 2009
I received a gift SI subscription for XMas last year. While I've enjoyed receiving it, I was wondering if I should renew for next year. Wonder no longer. I'll definitely re-up.
This is your SI Xmas gift for 2009
The latest blog post is thought provoking if nothing else. I've read it a couple times now and I'm still trying to decide if I agree with what Joe is getting at or if doing so is an exercise in futility because he's really just sort of throwing things out there as he suggested in the preface.
Link
Link
I'm a big fan of Joe's writing (can't wait for the book to drop) but the guy has been swinging and missing as of late.
QUOTE
Poz talks about Betancourt again. He cites his 2009 Dewan plus/minus and his UZR to make the case that he is a terrible defender which irks him because Dayton Moore and some of Betancourt’s new teammates (namely Bloomquist) think that he is a very good defender. Poz also says that if you watch him play and you look at his error totals (2) in the last 28 games, you might think he is around an average defender. Once gain, he is complaining bitterly about the signing. He makes some mistakes in the article, and again, I don’t think he should be making these kinds of mistakes if he is to be revered as much as he is by some sabermetric folk.
Link
There was the way he wrote about the Rios and Beltre deal's that were misses too.
QUOTE
Poz talks about Betancourt again. He cites his 2009 Dewan plus/minus and his UZR to make the case that he is a terrible defender which irks him because Dayton Moore and some of Betancourt’s new teammates (namely Bloomquist) think that he is a very good defender. Poz also says that if you watch him play and you look at his error totals (2) in the last 28 games, you might think he is around an average defender. Once gain, he is complaining bitterly about the signing. He makes some mistakes in the article, and again, I don’t think he should be making these kinds of mistakes if he is to be revered as much as he is by some sabermetric folk.
Link
There was the way he wrote about the Rios and Beltre deal's that were misses too.
Posnanski's newest article:http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/joe_posnanski/08/19/jeter/index.html?eref=sihpT1
I did not see a reference to the fact his offensive numbers are inflated by the new stadium.
I did not see a reference to the fact his offensive numbers are inflated by the new stadium.
QUOTE (SunkToANewLowell @ Aug 19 2009, 02:06 PM) index.php?act=findpost&pid=2516877
Posnanski's newest article:http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/joe_posnanski/08/19/jeter/index.html?eref=sihpT1
I did not see a reference to the fact his offensive numbers are inflated by the new stadium.
That's because they're not all that inflated by the new stadium.
Home: .319/.392/.496
Away: .340/.396/.448
I'll grant you that his power numbers are inflated (11 of his 15 HR are at home; 48 points higher in slugging%), but his BA is and OBP are actually higher on the road.
Really, his home stats this season aren't all that different from his career home stats (played in the old Yankee stadium), while his road stats are somewhat better this year than for his career:
Career home: .322/.396/.470
Career away: .312/.379/.449
It's clear that his power numbers have jumped this year, but I can't fault Posnanski all around. All things considered, the new park hasn't aided Jeter egregiously, and Jeter's totals haven't been skewed like, say, Mark Teixeira's.
Posnanski's newest article:http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/joe_posnanski/08/19/jeter/index.html?eref=sihpT1
I did not see a reference to the fact his offensive numbers are inflated by the new stadium.
That's because they're not all that inflated by the new stadium.
Home: .319/.392/.496
Away: .340/.396/.448
I'll grant you that his power numbers are inflated (11 of his 15 HR are at home; 48 points higher in slugging%), but his BA is and OBP are actually higher on the road.
Really, his home stats this season aren't all that different from his career home stats (played in the old Yankee stadium), while his road stats are somewhat better this year than for his career:
Career home: .322/.396/.470
Career away: .312/.379/.449
It's clear that his power numbers have jumped this year, but I can't fault Posnanski all around. All things considered, the new park hasn't aided Jeter egregiously, and Jeter's totals haven't been skewed like, say, Mark Teixeira's.
Good column by Pos.
And Pasta Diving Jeter is pretty funny. Worth reading, Jeter is putting up quality numbers this year, which means he really must have done a lot of working out of his legs this season. Keeping the legs fresh is everything.
Also, it's unbelievable that A Rod is in his 6th season in NY. It still feels recent. 6 years is not recent.
And Pasta Diving Jeter is pretty funny. Worth reading, Jeter is putting up quality numbers this year, which means he really must have done a lot of working out of his legs this season. Keeping the legs fresh is everything.
Also, it's unbelievable that A Rod is in his 6th season in NY. It still feels recent. 6 years is not recent.
QUOTE (serotonin @ Aug 14 2009, 08:08 AM) index.php?act=findpost&pid=2505368
The latest blog post is thought provoking if nothing else. I've read it a couple times now and I'm still trying to decide if I agree with what Joe is getting at or if doing so is an exercise in futility because he's really just sort of throwing things out there as he suggested in the preface.
Personally, I find that the best PED-related writing I've seen anywhere.
QUOTE (Tartan @ Aug 19 2009, 09:44 PM) index.php?act=findpost&pid=2518201
That's because they're not all that inflated by the new stadium.
Home: .319/.392/.496
Away: .340/.396/.448
I'll grant you that his power numbers are inflated (11 of his 15 HR are at home; 48 points higher in slugging%), but his BA is and OBP are actually higher on the road.
Really, his home stats this season aren't all that different from his career home stats (played in the old Yankee stadium), while his road stats are somewhat better this year than for his career:
Career home: .322/.396/.470
Career away: .312/.379/.449
It's clear that his power numbers have jumped this year, but I can't fault Posnanski all around. All things considered, the new park hasn't aided Jeter egregiously, and Jeter's totals haven't been skewed like, say, Mark Teixeira's.
Your conclusion doesn't necessarily follow. It's entirely possible that he has actually hit worse at home than he has on the road, but that the park factor has obscured the difference. Granted, we're still dealing with SSS from the New Toilet when it comes to establishing a park factor, but it's better to use whatever general information we have about a park's tendencies rather than a single player-season when estimating how the park has influenced the player's numbers.
The latest blog post is thought provoking if nothing else. I've read it a couple times now and I'm still trying to decide if I agree with what Joe is getting at or if doing so is an exercise in futility because he's really just sort of throwing things out there as he suggested in the preface.
Personally, I find that the best PED-related writing I've seen anywhere.
QUOTE (Tartan @ Aug 19 2009, 09:44 PM) index.php?act=findpost&pid=2518201
That's because they're not all that inflated by the new stadium.
Home: .319/.392/.496
Away: .340/.396/.448
I'll grant you that his power numbers are inflated (11 of his 15 HR are at home; 48 points higher in slugging%), but his BA is and OBP are actually higher on the road.
Really, his home stats this season aren't all that different from his career home stats (played in the old Yankee stadium), while his road stats are somewhat better this year than for his career:
Career home: .322/.396/.470
Career away: .312/.379/.449
It's clear that his power numbers have jumped this year, but I can't fault Posnanski all around. All things considered, the new park hasn't aided Jeter egregiously, and Jeter's totals haven't been skewed like, say, Mark Teixeira's.
Your conclusion doesn't necessarily follow. It's entirely possible that he has actually hit worse at home than he has on the road, but that the park factor has obscured the difference. Granted, we're still dealing with SSS from the New Toilet when it comes to establishing a park factor, but it's better to use whatever general information we have about a park's tendencies rather than a single player-season when estimating how the park has influenced the player's numbers.
QUOTE (Bellhorn @ Aug 22 2009, 10:37 AM) index.php?act=findpost&pid=2522841
Your conclusion doesn't necessarily follow. It's entirely possible that he has actually hit worse at home than he has on the road, but that the park factor has obscured the difference. Granted, we're still dealing with SSS from the New Toilet when it comes to establishing a park factor, but it's better to use whatever general information we have about a park's tendencies rather than a single player-season when estimating how the park has influenced the player's numbers.
So instead of looking at the actual numbers, we're going to estimate the ball park factor and just assume Jeter is hitting worse at home and the park is helping it look better? So, hey, why use the stats at all? Let's just assume Jeter is getting a lot of help from the ball park and despite the fact that he's actually hitting .340 on the road, that bump is due to the new toilet. Gotcha.
Your conclusion doesn't necessarily follow. It's entirely possible that he has actually hit worse at home than he has on the road, but that the park factor has obscured the difference. Granted, we're still dealing with SSS from the New Toilet when it comes to establishing a park factor, but it's better to use whatever general information we have about a park's tendencies rather than a single player-season when estimating how the park has influenced the player's numbers.
So instead of looking at the actual numbers, we're going to estimate the ball park factor and just assume Jeter is hitting worse at home and the park is helping it look better? So, hey, why use the stats at all? Let's just assume Jeter is getting a lot of help from the ball park and despite the fact that he's actually hitting .340 on the road, that bump is due to the new toilet. Gotcha.