It was fine, they got good looks twice, the plays and the timeouts weren't the issue, it was just a miss in regulation and Tatum losing track of the clock in OT, both times they exploited mismatches and got a guy wide open from 3.
Joe Mazzulla officially named head coach
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Both of those times Marcus Smart took the last shot from 3 that's not a desirable result. 2 points wins the game in both circumstances.
The Smart 3 in OT is because they sold out to stop Tatum, he got Maxey, so either someone is getting a wide open 3 or your best player is rolling to the rim on a small/bad defender. The 76ers have a good defense, and they packed the paint, a wide open 3 for anyone on the floor is a good shot (except TL but that's why he's not out there)
That's a low percentage shot under circumstances that didn't require it. If Marcus Smart shooting a 3 there is a good result for Mazzulla , then he shouldn't be coaching an NBA team. His time out usage has been called into question all year and it was bound to cost them games in the playoffs.
Marcus is going to hit open 3s probably 40-45% of the time. That’s perfectly fine for end of game possessions, where the execution rate on offense falls off a cliff. I mean Smart MADE the second one, Tatum was just late.
I get why people are combining the two plays, but the Tatum to Smart 3 at the end of regulation is completely different from the Tatum to Smart 3 and the end of OT. It was a tie game in regulation (so running the clock down for the last shot is the right move), and they actually moved with some urgency (which is why Smart got the shot off with plenty of time). I don't hate the play call, the Sixers were always going to double off Smart and he'll hit that open shot 35% of the time, give or take (which isn't bad for end of game situations), I hate that Mazzulla pissed away a chance for the Celtics to get two shots instead of one in overtime, and I hate that the players acted like they had the entire 24 second clock to get it up.
What shot do you expect to get that is better than a wide open 3?
This is the thing, people have wildly unrealistic expectations for what a good shot is. You're getting nothing in the paint, nothing, they're packing it tight, they're going to have Embiid in there helping on any drive, late double to the ball, a wide open 3 from Marcus is incredibly high probabilty for that spot. And it's option 2, option 1 is Jayson Tatum going to the rim, if they sell out you get an open 3, if they don't Tatum gets a good look.
Once Jayson drives, Smart, Jaylen and and Horford should have been cutting to the hoop to crash the boards and look for a pass. Everyone is sitting at the 3 point line so Tatum has no help, has to send a backwards pass and it took too much time. Even if the shot counted it was a poor design.
33% this year, which is a big difference from 45%. He was 28.3% in last year's playoffs 30.8% in 20-21 if we're cherry picking stats.
The biggest issue I have with the last play is that he didn’t call a timeout. This team is consistently bad in those situations and what they did - taking too long to execute their offense- has been the standard problem they encounter. Would it have been a horrible thing to talk about it? I think we all remember the creative -and often successful- plays Brad would devise after timeouts. It would be one thing if the Cs didn’t struggle in these situations but they clearly do.
Also, why the heck is Brogdon sitting for that final play? He is a better offensive player than Smart or White and a far better 3pt shooter (44%+). Ideally, you sit Marcus there as it’s pretty clear the play was either going to be a drive to the basket or a pass back to an open man deep. Clearly, Tatum or Brown would have been the man driving and you’d much rather have Brogdon or White (38%+) be that open man as Marcus is clearly the inferior shooter (33%%+).
Increasingly you have to wonder if Mazzulla’s loyalty to Smart, especially on offense, is going to be something that is going to be a barrier to this team’s success going forward. White and Brogdon are just better - especially on that side of the ball. When is Mazzulla going to adjust?
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But this allows your opponent to substitute as well.
If they call timeout, Philly is taking Maxey off the floor. They decided having Tatum go at Maxey is a better matchup or play than they're going to get if they call timeout.
They're probably right, it just didn't work out this time. It's no different than Udoka letting his guys go against Brooklyn last year. But they got the bucket last year, so it's a genius call by Udoka. They're a split second late this year, so Mazzulla is an idiot.
I get your point and yet it remains true that the Cs seem to struggle with pretty basic issues in these situations, and you’d hope talking about it might help them focus.
Tatum in particular consistently takes too long to initiate the offense on these plays. So much so that it feels like they might need to consider taking the ball out of his hands in these situations.
Teams usually don't get good kids on ATO plays. The D gets a chance to prepare and lock in as well. You risk ball denial on inbounds. Etc. When you need to advance the ball you do it but a lot of the time you may get a better look from a normal possession, especially against a frantic desperate defense.
But Philly didn’t have a timeout left either. Docs not going to take out Maxey, Harris and Harden (all of whom are weak defenders).
So he takes out Maxey and puts in Melton. Joe can’t scheme up a play to get Tatum on Harden (who can’t defend most NBA players) or Tobias Harris (who Tatum hunted on Friday and drained two shots over)
This isn’t 20/20 hindsight either. It was abundantly clear that something was wrong when no one moved towards the basket until there was 5.5 seconds left. There were major alarms going off that it took them so long to do anything
Doc ran a play that got Harden wide open. Mazulla ran plays that got Marcus Smart open. I love the guy but he's player 5 out 5 on the court that I want taking a buzzer beater. Granted the end of regulation shot is exactly the type of three I love him taking, but he's still the last guy in that lineup I want shooting.
Joe let them “figure it out” in the regular season in these situations, to the tune of being 4-5 in games that ended within one possession, and 4-7 in OT. They don’t seem to have actually learned anything from those experiences, as three of their four losses have been with one possession this postseason, and all three they gave up the game winner to the opposing team’s best shooter.
The Heat meanwhile were 14-8 in the regular season. I’m not going to check every one, but Spoelstra called a timeout on the final possession for six of the first seven of those.
edit since the next post is about Butler: the ATO shots went to Butler, Herro, Herro, Strus, Adenayo, Strus
The Heat meanwhile were 14-8 in the regular season. I’m not going to check every one, but Spoelstra called a timeout on the final possession for six of the first seven of those.
edit since the next post is about Butler: the ATO shots went to Butler, Herro, Herro, Strus, Adenayo, Strus
Most teams struggle with pretty basic issues in these situations. There aren't a lot of Jimmy Butlers in the league. Jayson Tatum isn't there yet. Last possessions often devolve into not great shots all around the league.
We just focus on the Celtics having issues in these situations because we're Celtics fans. And they've been in a ton of these games the last five years.
He also got Tatum on to Embiid which was a new look (RIP Nick Cafardo) There's little doubt Brown left Harden because of the mismatch.
Ryan Bernardoni in response to a tweet which says that Doc can make a sub and also draw up a defensive play…
BTW, this is the same language he used for Jaylen doubling off of Harden.
View: https://twitter.com/dangercart/status/1655342793487679490?s=46&t=Yv-0viabFQl7Lk7DrSRbBA
BTW, this is the same language he used for Jaylen doubling off of Harden.
View: https://twitter.com/dangercart/status/1655342793487679490?s=46&t=Yv-0viabFQl7Lk7DrSRbBA
I’d have to go back and look, but I thought Tatum voluntarily switched on to him as he drove the ball. Either way, Tatum had probably a more favorable matchup than Embiid did on both of his possessions. I just can’t blame the coach anymore for what I consider pretty close coaching decisions. With 15-20 seconds left, it’s really an either/or scenario. The players need to take the responsibility imo.
Why would Philly need a timeout? If Boston takes one there, Philly 100% takes Maxey out which was the matchup they wanted.
You can say, hey there were other good matchups, but they decided Maxey was the best one, and that would be unavailable to them with a timeout.
I just think fans think timeouts are some silver bullet that magically get you a win if you call one. What likely would've happened would've just been Tatum running at someone that wasn't Maxey. That's the NBA. You just give your star player the ball late and say go get a basket.
Is that why Marcus Smart was the only Celtic with FGA in the last two minutes of regulation while Brown got to watch from the corner?
Yes because Brown isn't their star, Tatum is. Did Tatum not start with the ball in both of those last two possessions or am I concussed?
Phlly needs a timeout to go offense/defense. Because they didn’t have one, they can’t fully commit to that plan.
Because Philly can’t fully commit to that plan, they would have had a minimum of 2 defenders on the floor that Boston could scheme to get isolated. As I pointed out earlier, these are two defenders that Boston felt very comfortable attacking previously this series.
I don’t think the timeout is some magic silver bullet just like a defensive substitution isn’t a magic silver bullet.
I think when it got down to 9 seconds and there was pretty clearly not much of a plan, a timeout should have been called. That’s not even accounting for the struggles that this particular group has at the end of games.
To reiterate, I don’t think a timeout means they automatically win the game. Game 1, a timeout was called and the play call immediately after was vomit inducing. IMO, a timeout where the players regroup and know what they need to do, raises the probability of a good clean shot getting off by a good deal.
EDIT: BTW, I am not even entirely convinced that Doc makes a substitution there. Doc’s the king of riding with his starters until the wheels fall off
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Why are you pointing to Mazzulla for Smsrt taking, and making, the three? The play was designed for Tatum and he was the one who made the correct decision to find an open shooter when he had the entire defense collapse on him. The problem was that Tatum was :01 late in executing the play. Aside from that it was ideal to get an open look on an end of game shot. Did I mention that he actually made it?
But, again, this is probably why Boston doesn't call one.
Because they don't want Philly to be able to go offense/defense, so Philly put their offensive lineup on the floor when they needed a bucket. Why would you call timeout to allow them to go offense/defense?
As I pointed out earlier, even though these are two defenders that Boston felt very comfortable attacking previously this series, there is a third defender that they felt was an even better option to attack. So why allow them to take him off the floor?
They aren't going to run some magic play where they are popping the ball all around if they call timeout with 9 seconds left. They're going to get the ball to Tatum, and have him try to make a play/shot. Same as they did without a timeout. It would've just been running into a tougher defense since Maxey surely would've been replaced with a better defender.
Doc replaced Maxey in a similar situation after the Harden three in game one. You can be entirely convinced he would've done so again.
He's a rookie who happened into a job he wasn't seen as ready for. I think he's done well under the circumstances, but there is a lot of room for improvement.
I can't recall a single instance of the no-TO strategy working (which, if you're 0-fer maybe change your strategies???)
But I do recall this game....
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fK3OQoBYNcc
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I realize there are "he shouldn't have called a timeout" voices and there are "he should have called a timeout voices," and each can make some points. True, you can never be sure of the outcome either way. But at the end of the day, I can't think of an NBA coach who, if sitting on two timeouts, wouldn't have called a timeout in that situation. Does anyone really think that Spo or Pops would've just let the players play on, when every last second was precious?
I know Philly has chances to make adjustments on defense during a timeout, just as the Celts can adjust on offense, but that's always the case. And the coach whose team has the ball just about always seems to call timeouts in that situation anyway.
I found Joe really frustrating this game in his reluctance to use his timeouts to the point that I started wondering if he got a bonus if he was the NBA coach who finished the year with the most unused timeouts.
I know Philly has chances to make adjustments on defense during a timeout, just as the Celts can adjust on offense, but that's always the case. And the coach whose team has the ball just about always seems to call timeouts in that situation anyway.
I found Joe really frustrating this game in his reluctance to use his timeouts to the point that I started wondering if he got a bonus if he was the NBA coach who finished the year with the most unused timeouts.
Agree to disagree.
I made sure to point out in my response that i didn’t think a timeout automatically meant a win or even that the timeout meant a great play would be called. So, I don’t know where you’re getting this “magic play” or “silver bullet” play stuff that you seem to be lobbing at me. I didn’t say Joe was going to resurrect Red Auerbach and diagram a play where Tatum wouldn’t be guarded and got a dunk or that he would take out a D&D board and cast a spell on the Sixers defense or whatever the fuck.
You seem to care more about Melton being on the floor instead of Maxey than I do. Reasonable Pros and cons to each side, don’t try to make it unreasonable by talking about stuff I never said
Exactly! We've discussed this throughout the season when Mazzulla didn't allow the defensive substitutions. There was another time when Russ was still with the Lakers and Ham, correctly imo, allowed him to go at the mismatch but he lost the ball out of bounds.
Why are people so hung up with calling a timeout to allow the defense to set AND have their proper personnel on the floor? That precisely what you don't want to do in hunting the best matchup.
Jaylen screws up that play big time. You can concede the 2 in that situation - but you can’t leave your man open from 3-point range to double down low when 2 points only ties it. Total bonehead move by Brown and the worst case scenario (a 3) was the consequence. Honestly, tough to feel good about the Cs two stars at the end today. They need to play smarter..
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This has been answered multiple times in this thread and other places. Just because you don’t agree doesn’t mean reasonable points aren’t being made.
Also, I remember against the Knicks in a game earlier where you were 100% convinced that Thibs would take out a player (I believe the player was Quickley) for offense/defense if a timeout was called, so it was 100% the right decision to not call a timeout and give him the chance to go offense/defense. The game went into OT and a timeout was called…and it turned out that Thibs kept Quickley in. Sometimes it’s not nearly as cut and dry as you believe
Did you notice what happened here?
I see D. Melton enters the game for T. Maxey
It's almost as if, you're agreeing that the matchup they wanted was Tatum attacking Maxey, and calling timeout in this game would've taken that off the board, while in that game it was already off the board?
I feel bad though that you didn't remember this single instance of the no-TO strategy working though. Was a great game.
I watched the play live. The team looked slow, gassed, and disorganized and that was clear with 10-15 seconds let on the clock. That's why you call the TO. Yes there may be a theoretical advantage to not calling a TO, but you have to be able to read the situation and make adjustments.
I remember that game and it was bizarre. I don't know why Thibs kept Quickley on the floor as that wasn't logical on any level. I'd have expected Doc to replace Maxey with Melton. Maybe it's reasonable to allow the defense the advantage of being set with their desired personnel but I don't really see it that way.
i think there is an argument for the timeout.... it's the argument that you're trying to extend rather than win on the final shot. And you want to take the shot with 10 seconds left and are willing to take a likely worse opportunity to get 2 of them if needed.
I'm of the opinion in that situation that it's fine to trust your offense and play for the win.
I can see the argument for try to score then foul if you don't, or defend if you do... but i think that's more the strategy you take if you're the team down 2-1.
I don't generally agree with people saying they looked disorganized or like they were confused. Tatum decided he was going for the one possession to win, he waited, got the matchup he wanted drove, got the collapse, made the right read and pass.... he just made the pass literally 0.3 seconds too late. That sucks, but it didn't happen because he was confused or they didn't run the right play, it happened because of execution. Nobody is complaining if Tatum lets the pass go a tiny bit earlier and we win the game... no they're saying... "wow what a great play, they got a wide open 3 and won the game"
I'm of the opinion in that situation that it's fine to trust your offense and play for the win.
I can see the argument for try to score then foul if you don't, or defend if you do... but i think that's more the strategy you take if you're the team down 2-1.
I don't generally agree with people saying they looked disorganized or like they were confused. Tatum decided he was going for the one possession to win, he waited, got the matchup he wanted drove, got the collapse, made the right read and pass.... he just made the pass literally 0.3 seconds too late. That sucks, but it didn't happen because he was confused or they didn't run the right play, it happened because of execution. Nobody is complaining if Tatum lets the pass go a tiny bit earlier and we win the game... no they're saying... "wow what a great play, they got a wide open 3 and won the game"
Melton.
What was the point?
Tatum made the shot over the better defender in that game, therefore you should let them put the better defender in for this game as well?
It's not the exact same situation, but I looked back through the Heat schedule and against Orlando in March, Bam rebounds an Orlando miss with 27 seconds left, down three points and Miami with two timeouts left. No timeout. Bam drives and misses a layup. Strus grabs the offensive rebound and...no timeout. He kicks it out, two more passes before it eventually gets around to Butler for a three, that he misses.
Even great coaches like Spo will sometimes let their players play and try to figure it out
Don't even need to go back that far really, slightly different, but up 2 with 29 seconds left in game 5 against MIL in OT... no timeout, just ran offense (missed 3, but Giannis missed on the other end so they won), end of regulation they called a timeout, but that was 2 seconds, literally can't even get a chance without advancing the ball.
It's hard to judge, because the number of times you're tied or down with less than a shotclock left is pretty rare.
I don't mean to be lobbing this at you personally. I apologize for coming off that way. You just happened to be who I was replying to.
I think it's just a thing fans, including me, to do after close losses. If they had just called a timeout here. If they had just pinch hit. If they just went for it on fourth down. And if the coach didn't do whatever the thing is we're wishing he did, he's an idiot.
In reality, they're all close calls. I don't think he's an idiot for not calling timeout, because I think he wanted the Tatum/Maxey matchup. I don't think you, or anyone else who wanted to call a timeout, are idiots for wanting him to call a timeout.
Truth
reading the situation and making adjustments is the main duty of the head coach
yeah, either call is perfectly defensible. Not taking a timeout isn't some big fuckup, they got what they wanted, they just didn't execute, the real arguments some people should be making is the one up-thread, which is not really about timeouts, but that they should have played it safe and tried to score quick and give the ball back.
There was really only one egregiously bad decision late in this game (well 2 if you count Tatum throwing the pass too late) and that was leaving Harden, that play is far more of an egregious screwup that shouldn't happen than choosing to go for a win or lose play without a timeout.