Jimmy G to 49ers for 2nd round pick

leftfieldlegacy

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Despite the multiple injuries, Gronk's retirement and the slow skill players, I believe that we would be celebrating #7 if they had been able to have a full season of Antonio Brown.
 

Ed Hillel

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Wait so you don't think JG will ever win a Super Bowl? Take a look at some of the QB's who have won rings : Trent Dilfer, Brad Johnson, Doug Williams, Mark Rypian, Jeff Hostetler, etc... Are you actually saying that JG is worse than Trent Fucking Dilfer?
I think you lost your mind if you think that.
You’ve just named 5 non top-5 QBs to win the SB in the past 35 years. I could name a few more than 5 who have not.

Yes, Jimmy CAN win one, but he’s going to need a very strong supporting cast to do so. He happens to have one right now, so it’s possible, but I’m not gonna bank on Jimmy carrying mediocre teams into contention. I’m also not banking on strong supporting casts carrying mediocre QBs to multiple Superbowl appearances. It’s just not something that happens. Teams with elite QBs catch up quickly.
 

Super Nomario

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And let's be clear here, speed and "small" don't go hand in hand anymore. Defenses are faster, and they are bigger now.
They're bigger than they were in the 90s, but they're smaller than they were 10-15 years ago. You never used to see edges in the 240s or LBs in the 220s but that's pretty common in college these days. And Aaron Donald and Geno Atkins ushered in an era of 280-290-lb DTs. And you also see a lot more nickel and dime, so there are more small players on the field even apart from players being smaller at any given position.

Whether that makes a difference or not is an outstanding question. I feel like people have been predicting almost this whole time period that a power running team is going to take advantage of these small dudes, but any flashes of that happening haven't been sustainable.

Isn't Develin coming back? I haven't heard any arguments that he's gone.
He's a free agent, as is Roberts. Jakob Johnson is still under contract. EDIT: I'm dumb, no he's not a FA.
 
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reggiecleveland

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You’ve just named 5 non top-5 QBs to win the SB in the past 35 years. I could name a few more than 5 who have not.

Yes, Jimmy CAN win one, but he’s going to need a very strong supporting cast to do so. He happens to have one right now, so it’s possible, but I’m not gonna bank on Jimmy carrying mediocre teams into contention. I’m also not banking on strong supporting casts carrying mediocre QBs to multiple Superbowl appearances. It’s just not something that happens. Teams with elite QBs catch up quickly.
I wonder if at some point the huge salaries to above average QBS, will make it easier have good players around average QBS. Many here are waiting for the the big increase in Mahomes contract to hurt KC when it happens.
 

Bergs

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Despite the multiple injuries, Gronk's retirement and the slow skill players, I believe that we would be celebrating #7 if they had been able to have a full season of Antonio Brown.
I don't know if we would have won it all, but I agree they would have been the #1 seed and the AFCCG would have been at Gillette.
 

Super Nomario

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I wonder if at some point the huge salaries to above average QBS, will make it easier have good players around average QBS. Many here are waiting for the the big increase in Mahomes contract to hurt KC when it happens.
The salary curve has generally been pretty flat in the veteran market. Mahomes is going to be the highest-paid QB, but there will be less difference in his cap hit vs Goff, Garoppolo, Dak, etc. than there is in the quality of his play. Teams are overpaying fringe top-20-25 QBs to avoid falling into QB hell. There really isn't a QB middle-class market unless you catch lightning in a bottle like Tannehill last year.
 

PedroKsBambino

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The salary curve has generally been pretty flat in the veteran market. Mahomes is going to be the highest-paid QB, but there will be less difference in his cap hit vs Goff, Garoppolo, Dak, etc. than there is in the quality of his play. Teams are overpaying fringe top-20-25 QBs to avoid falling into QB hell. There really isn't a QB middle-class market unless you catch lightning in a bottle like Tannehill last year.
Agreed, I think that suggests that the most likely BB play if he has to be in that market is to try to get an Andy Dalton type at a relatively small $ amount and hope he can coach up and make the right bet on improvement. Betting $20+ mil on someone who is not certain to be better is not efficient.

I also think he is willing to go vanilla at QB and gamble he can run the 2001-2003 offense with a game-manager, a great defense and special teams, and better running game.
 

Super Nomario

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Agreed, I think that suggests that the most likely BB play if he has to be in that market is to try to get an Andy Dalton type at a relatively small $ amount and hope he can coach up and make the right bet on improvement. Betting $20+ mil on someone who is not certain to be better is not efficient.

I also think he is willing to go vanilla at QB and gamble he can run the 2001-2003 offense with a game-manager, a great defense and special teams, and better running game.
I'm curious how low the money on Dalton winds up being, honestly. His cap hit was $16.2 MM last year and honestly that looks like a bargain. I wouldn't be surprised if he's making in that range again, and if he is, $15-16 MM for Dalton plus $13.5 for Brady not on the roster isn't saving money at the QB position.

If it's not Brady (and it's probably Brady), Stidham I think is far-and-away the most sensible option, though Cam Newton intrigues me as a guy who might be available cheap coming off injury but has legitimate top-5-10 upside that a Dalton doesn't. Maybe there's a creative solution I'm discounting (maybe Washington decides to Rosen Dwayne Haskins?)?
 

Deathofthebambino

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In 2001 they didn't have any team speed on offense. Troy was average. Wiggins was a slow TE. Smith was a slow, power running RB.
In 2003 they didn't have any real team speed. Branch was more quick than fast. Everything else was the same.
In 2004 they didn't have any real team speed. Dillon was really good but not fast. Everything else was basically the same.
In 2014 they weren't really fast. Vereen was similar to White. Gronk was faster than he was in 2018, so that helped. Edelman and Amendola? More quick than fast. LaFell wasn't particularly fast.
In 2016 they weren't really fast. Gronk was out. Bennett was powerful and had decent speed but was no burner. Hogan, Mitchell, Edelman...none were really fast.
In 2018 they weren't really fast.

I mean, all six Super Bowl wins they've not been very fast on offense. They've been frigging GOOD though. Skilled, quick, strong, and versatile, with the best QB of all time running the show and making the decisions. That's why they've been so successful on offense.

That said, yes I want them to get faster because even though those teams weren't really fast, they weren't slow like this team was in 2019. They do need to get at least a LITTLE faster.
You can throw out 2001-2004. It wasn't just a different league, it was a different game of football back then.

In 2014, they weren't burners, but again, they had Gronk. I think people are really, really underestimating just how much pressure Gronk put on a defense, and how much less pressure Brady would face as a result. The extra time Brady had because of Gronk led to his ability to wait out routes from guys like Edelman and Amendola or Vereen out of the backfield.

In 2016, Gronk was out, but again, they had Chris Hogan. In 3 playoff games that year, Hogan put up 4 catches for 95 yards, 9 catches for 180 yards and 2 td's, and 4 catches for 57 yards. He only had 38 catches in the entire regular season that year, but when they got to the playoffs, it was his speed that opened everything up for everyone else. In those 3 games, Edelman went for 8/118, 8/138 and then 5/87 in the Super Bowl (in which James White went for 14/110). And Edelman in 2016 is a very, very different guy physically than Edelman is going to be in 2020. He's lost a step or two (and IMO, so has James White for that matter).

In 2018, Gronk was back, again opening things up, and they put together a power running game behind James Develin and Gronk. Neither of those things are happening in 2020, IMO, so I'm not sure we can rely on them turning into a ground and pound machine.

Believe me, if they can find another Gronk, and another fullback who can pave the way for Sony, and the offensive line can turn it around after Scar's retirement, then I'm fine with that. I just think that's a basically impossible task, whereas finding guys who can fly is much easier. And that's the model that the most successful teams are following in the NFL, with KC and Baltimore and even San Fran. Everyone is getting faster, and the Patriots are getting slower, and they aren't just slow, they are literally the slowest team in the NFL. Brandon Bolden, fuck me.

Of course, this all comes back to the absolutely abysmal drafts in recent years. If they had hit on 4-5 more guys in the last 5 years, who were on rookie deals, they wouldn't have the cap issues they have now, they'd be younger and faster, but nope. They've had what, 9 guys total from the last 4 drafts that have contributed anything (and I'm including a punter, and guys like Bentley as contributors in that number). That's really, really not good.
 

Deathofthebambino

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Isn't Develin coming back? I haven't heard any arguments that he's gone.
He's under contract for one more year, but he's going to be a 32 year old fullback coming off a neck injury who basically lives and dies by using his upper body to meet linebackers in the hole. I love the guy, but I'm not holding my breath.
 

Deathofthebambino

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I'm curious how low the money on Dalton winds up being, honestly. His cap hit was $16.2 MM last year and honestly that looks like a bargain. I wouldn't be surprised if he's making in that range again, and if he is, $15-16 MM for Dalton plus $13.5 for Brady not on the roster isn't saving money at the QB position.

If it's not Brady (and it's probably Brady), Stidham I think is far-and-away the most sensible option, though Cam Newton intrigues me as a guy who might be available cheap coming off injury but has legitimate top-5-10 upside that a Dalton doesn't. Maybe there's a creative solution I'm discounting (maybe Washington decides to Rosen Dwayne Haskins?)?
I would roll with Stidham if Brady isn't returning, and it's all about next year's schedule. I don't think Stidham is the future, but I also don't think bringing in a stop gap to win 7-8 games is a good move either. Roll with Stidham, win 3-5 games and make a move on one of the QB's in the 2021 draft. That schedule next year is awe-inspiringly difficult when the travel gets factored in. AFC West and NFC West, plus Baltimore, and a much better AFC East. It's going to get ugly. I'm already on record as saying I think they struggle to win 10 games next year with Brady. I think it changes the following year and Brady can lead them back to another super bowl with better weapons and an easier schedule and let the heir apparent learn from him for a year.
 

Super Nomario

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In 2014, they weren't burners, but again, they had Gronk. I think people are really, really underestimating just how much pressure Gronk put on a defense, and how much less pressure Brady would face as a result. The extra time Brady had because of Gronk led to his ability to wait out routes from guys like Edelman and Amendola or Vereen out of the backfield.

In 2016, Gronk was out, but again, they had Chris Hogan. In 3 playoff games that year, Hogan put up 4 catches for 95 yards, 9 catches for 180 yards and 2 td's, and 4 catches for 57 yards. He only had 38 catches in the entire regular season that year, but when they got to the playoffs, it was his speed that opened everything up for everyone else. In those 3 games, Edelman went for 8/118, 8/138 and then 5/87 in the Super Bowl (in which James White went for 14/110). And Edelman in 2016 is a very, very different guy physically than Edelman is going to be in 2020. He's lost a step or two (and IMO, so has James White for that matter).
I think the idea that Hogan's speed was opening things up for everybody is kind of silly. What Hogan was (and what Brandon LaFell was, and Malcolm Mitchell, and even guys like Brandon Lloyd and Deion Branch in his 2010 return engagement) was a competent outside receiver who could win a one-on-one matchup when teams rotated away from him and was fast enough to make teams pay if they ignored him. That's all the Patriots really need out of X. Sure, it's great if they have a Moss or Cooks to be a superstar at X, but they don't need that, and those guys are really expensive.

What made them great in 2016 is they went four deep at WR. Amendola was really WR4 on that team; Mitchell was playing a big role as the season went on, Hogan was solid, and Edelman was Edelman, then you had Bennett still when Gronk went down, Dion Lewis, James White, and Blount. That was a stacked group of skill players, even though the only superstar (Gronk) ended the year on IR. You overplay White or Edelman, they had plenty of firepower to make you pay.

Believe me, if they can find another Gronk, and another fullback who can pave the way for Sony, and the offensive line can turn it around after Scar's retirement, then I'm fine with that. I just think that's a basically impossible task, whereas finding guys who can fly is much easier. And that's the model that the most successful teams are following in the NFL, with KC and Baltimore and even San Fran. Everyone is getting faster, and the Patriots are getting slower, and they aren't just slow, they are literally the slowest team in the NFL. Brandon Bolden, fuck me.
I don't think they need a guy who can fly. I mean, shit, Dorsett ran a sub-4.4 40, but he can't beat press and he has zero nuance to his route-running so he never wins deep. Harry's problem isn't that he's slow - his speed is fine, not special, but enough - it's that he stinks against press and he can't get separate. A.J. Brown ran a 4.49 vs Harry's 4.52, virtually identical, but Brown actually has some route-running nuance. Their WR busts through the years have almost all been really fast guys who couldn't play. It would be nice to have speed, but skill is really the issue IMO.

Of course, this all comes back to the absolutely abysmal drafts in recent years. If they had hit on 4-5 more guys in the last 5 years, who were on rookie deals, they wouldn't have the cap issues they have now, they'd be younger and faster, but nope. They've had what, 9 guys total from the last 4 drafts that have contributed anything (and I'm including a punter, and guys like Bentley as contributors in that number). That's really, really not good.
I haven't run the numbers, but they must be bottom-five in talent on rookie contracts.

Yeah, you're right, I don't know what I was thinking here. Edited above.
 

Deathofthebambino

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I think the idea that Hogan's speed was opening things up for everybody is kind of silly. What Hogan was (and what Brandon LaFell was, and Malcolm Mitchell, and even guys like Brandon Lloyd and Deion Branch in his 2010 return engagement) was a competent outside receiver who could win a one-on-one matchup when teams rotated away from him and was fast enough to make teams pay if they ignored him. That's all the Patriots really need out of X. Sure, it's great if they have a Moss or Cooks to be a superstar at X, but they don't need that, and those guys are really expensive.

What made them great in 2016 is they went four deep at WR. Amendola was really WR4 on that team; Mitchell was playing a big role as the season went on, Hogan was solid, and Edelman was Edelman, then you had Bennett still when Gronk went down, Dion Lewis, James White, and Blount. That was a stacked group of skill players, even though the only superstar (Gronk) ended the year on IR. You overplay White or Edelman, they had plenty of firepower to make you pay.


I don't think they need a guy who can fly. I mean, shit, Dorsett ran a sub-4.4 40, but he can't beat press and he has zero nuance to his route-running so he never wins deep. Harry's problem isn't that he's slow - his speed is fine, not special, but enough - it's that he stinks against press and he can't get separate. A.J. Brown ran a 4.49 vs Harry's 4.52, virtually identical, but Brown actually has some route-running nuance. Their WR busts through the years have almost all been really fast guys who couldn't play. It would be nice to have speed, but skill is really the issue IMO.


I haven't run the numbers, but they must be bottom-five in talent on rookie contracts.


Yeah, you're right, I don't know what I was thinking here. Edited above.
In 2016, Hogan led the NFL with 17.9 yards per catch. It went up to 19.5 ypc in the playoffs on 17 catches in 3 games. The guy was a burner who safeties had to respect over the top. Guys like Edelman and Amendola and Mitchell weren't getting safety help when they had to account for Hogan running a fly passed the corner on one side. Hogan is a true freak athlete. He was a pretty terrible route runner though. I would argue that finding slow guys that can win one on one matchups is much, much harder than finding guys who are so fast that they can win one on one just by being fast. Tyreek Hill catches a ton of balls underneath because guys can't press him, they have to give him a cushion. And again, White and Edelman are now 4 years older. Edelman was winning one on one matchups all the time in 2016. He still wins some, but not nearly as many and it takes him longer. That extra half second is huge in today's NFL, especially with no running game, and an offensive line that can't hold up. Brady threw away 40 passes this year. By comparison, Drew Brees threw away 9 passes, Mahomes threw away 19, Russell Wilson threw away 20, etc.

Don't get me started on Dorsett. He's just a bad, bad receiver. He's a 5th option, at best. I still have hope for Harry. I still think he's too slow, and his route running sucks, but I'm willing to hope that his lack of speed this year had more to do with his injury in training camp and missing the first half of the season than anything else. But I would wager everything I have that if you put him in a footrace against AJ Brown right now, Brown beats him handily. Brown also was arguably the best wide receiver in football after the catch this year. He averaged 11.3 yards before the catch, and then another 8.9 yards after catch , whereas DK Metcalf averaged 10.8 yards before the catch and 4.7 YAC. Obviously, in a much smaller sample, Harry averaged 5.3ybc, and 3.5 YAC. Other guys of note (Tyreek Hill was 10.1/4.7, Michael Thomas was 7.7/3.9, Godwin was 8.8/6.7, Julio was 10.7/3.9, Evans was 13.4/3.8, Parker was 13.0/3.7). You also had something in Seattle and and Tennessee that we didn't have, play action passing, because again, nobody needed to respect our running game and the offensive line couldn't hold up long enough for anyone to get open even with the play action. The true #1 outside threats have to be averaging a lot more than 5.3ybc (Thomas is the lowest, but you have to expect that with 150,000 catches, but even he's at 7.7) and if you don't have speed, a quarterback can't hang around and wait for you to not only get open, but then get down the field. Like I said, I hope Harry comes back faster and stronger this year health wise, which could be a big deal, but.....

And I'm not saying they should just go and pick the guys who have the fastest times at the combine. Andy Isabella from UMASS and Parris Campbell from Ohio State were the fastest receivers at the combine at 4.31, but we don't need more slot receivers, so I understand passing on them. The players have to have some skill too, but this methodology of picking guys that are slow, but may develop into great receivers is crazy. Harry at 4.53 was tied for 22nd in the 40 at the combine among wide receivers. 22nd!! And they took him in the 1st round ahead of the following guys Metcalf (4.33), Hardman (4.33), McLaurin (4.35), Slayton (4.39), Samuel (4.48), AJ Brown (4.49). That's just so much opportunity cost lost that it's really hard to fathom. Wide receiver was deeeeeeeeeeep in 2019, and they went after a guy, who IMO, should have gone in the late 2nd round at best.

There is also something these other guys have in common besides more speed than Harry. Metcalf (Ole Miss), Hardman (Georgia), McLaurin (Ohio State), Slayton (Auburn), Samuel (South Carolina), AJ Brown (Ole Miss). Harry went to Arizona State. Harry may have been as productive as these guys, and in most cases, more productive in college, but these guys were playing the best of the best week in and week out in college. Meanwhile, Harry was playing in the PAC 10, where defense is optional in half the games. Most of the guys they were matching up against are the same guys they'll be playing against in the pros, so they are already a step ahead (IMO). Passing on Metcalf last year was like the Ravens taking Jaleel Scott in the 4th round in 2018 who ran a 4.56, instead of drafting DJ Chark who ran a 4.34 (the fastest time for a WR at the combine, and he went undrafted, something I'm not sure has ever happened). Chark kills me. 6'3, 199lbs, coming from LSU, runs a 4.34 at the combine and the entire NFL passed on him. Meanwhile, John Ross runs a 4.22 out of Washington and he gets taken 9th overall. Some things with NFL scouts I'll never understand.
 

Super Nomario

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In 2016, Hogan led the NFL with 17.9 yards per catch. It went up to 19.5 ypc in the playoffs on 17 catches in 3 games. The guy was a burner who safeties had to respect over the top. Guys like Edelman and Amendola and Mitchell weren't getting safety help when they had to account for Hogan running a fly passed the corner on one side. Hogan is a true freak athlete. He was a pretty terrible route runner though.
I wouldn't read too much into his YPC that year; he had few enough catches that it got inflated by a couple long ones (a 79-yard TD where Weddle blew a C4 deep zone added 2.0 full YPC to his total). He was fast enough. Sometimes he got safety coverage when the play and defense dictated it (a guy running a post gets the deep safety in a one-high scheme), but no one was dedicating a double team to him. For the most part, he was just keeping teams honest when they doubled Edelman or Gronk or White. Which is fine, that's all they need out of the X. Hogan ran a 4.50 40 at his Pro Day; he was fast enough for that X spot, but he wasn't a blazer.

I would argue that finding slow guys that can win one on one matchups is much, much harder than finding guys who are so fast that they can win one on one just by being fast. Tyreek Hill catches a ton of balls underneath because guys can't press him, they have to give him a cushion. And again, White and Edelman are now 4 years older. Edelman was winning one on one matchups all the time in 2016. He still wins some, but not nearly as many and it takes him longer. That extra half second is huge in today's NFL, especially with no running game, and an offensive line that can't hold up. Brady threw away 40 passes this year. By comparison, Drew Brees threw away 9 passes, Mahomes threw away 19, Russell Wilson threw away 20, etc.
No one wins one on one just by being fast though; NFL DBs are also really fast. That's why guys like Dorsett and John Ross have failed. Speed is one way guys can win, but they gotta be able to do other stuff. I don't really care how they win as long as they do win; the problem the Patriots had last year is, other than Edelman and White, no one was winning.

And I'm not saying they should just go and pick the guys who have the fastest times at the combine. Andy Isabella from UMASS and Parris Campbell from Ohio State were the fastest receivers at the combine at 4.31, but we don't need more slot receivers, so I understand passing on them. The players have to have some skill too, but this methodology of picking guys that are slow, but may develop into great receivers is crazy. Harry at 4.53 was tied for 22nd in the 40 at the combine among wide receivers. 22nd!! And they took him in the 1st round ahead of the following guys Metcalf (4.33), Hardman (4.33), McLaurin (4.35), Slayton (4.39), Samuel (4.48), AJ Brown (4.49). That's just so much opportunity cost lost that it's really hard to fathom. Wide receiver was deeeeeeeeeeep in 2019, and they went after a guy, who IMO, should have gone in the late 2nd round at best.
Harry was more productive in college than all those guys except Brown, and he was a lot more productive than some of them (he had two seasons with more receiving yards than Hardman's career total). The funny thing is that in the past, all their high WR picks have been blazers with meh college production: Taylor Price, Brandon Tate, Aaron Dobson, Bethel Johnson, Chad Jackson (who did have OK production). So last year, they finally take a guy who actually put up numbers in college (but didn't have a great 40) ... and all the unproductive college players had great years and Harry was awful.

There is also something these other guys have in common besides more speed than Harry. Metcalf (Ole Miss), Hardman (Georgia), McLaurin (Ohio State), Slayton (Auburn), Samuel (South Carolina), AJ Brown (Ole Miss). Harry went to Arizona State. Harry may have been as productive as these guys, and in most cases, more productive in college, but these guys were playing the best of the best week in and week out in college. Meanwhile, Harry was playing in the PAC 10, where defense is optional in half the games. Most of the guys they were matching up against are the same guys they'll be playing against in the pros, so they are already a step ahead (IMO).
JuJu was a Pac-12 guy and he was pretty darn good from jump. Davante Adams is really good. Adam Thielen went to Minnesota-Mankado; I don't even know what conference that's in. Keenan Allen, Robert, Woods, Cooks, Cooper Kupp, Tyler Lockett, Courtland Sutton, etc. There are tons of guys who come out of "lesser" conferences / programs and succeed.

Passing on Metcalf last year was like the Ravens taking Jaleel Scott in the 4th round in 2018 who ran a 4.56, instead of drafting DJ Chark who ran a 4.34 (the fastest time for a WR at the combine, and he went undrafted, something I'm not sure has ever happened). Chark kills me. 6'3, 199lbs, coming from LSU, runs a 4.34 at the combine and the entire NFL passed on him. Meanwhile, John Ross runs a 4.22 out of Washington and he gets taken 9th overall. Some things with NFL scouts I'll never understand.
You must be confusing him with someone else; Chark was a second-round pick.
 

Deathofthebambino

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I wouldn't read too much into his YPC that year; he had few enough catches that it got inflated by a couple long ones (a 79-yard TD where Weddle blew a C4 deep zone added 2.0 full YPC to his total). He was fast enough. Sometimes he got safety coverage when the play and defense dictated it (a guy running a post gets the deep safety in a one-high scheme), but no one was dedicating a double team to him. For the most part, he was just keeping teams honest when they doubled Edelman or Gronk or White. Which is fine, that's all they need out of the X. Hogan ran a 4.50 40 at his Pro Day; he was fast enough for that X spot, but he wasn't a blazer.


No one wins one on one just by being fast though; NFL DBs are also really fast. That's why guys like Dorsett and John Ross have failed. Speed is one way guys can win, but they gotta be able to do other stuff. I don't really care how they win as long as they do win; the problem the Patriots had last year is, other than Edelman and White, no one was winning.


Harry was more productive in college than all those guys except Brown, and he was a lot more productive than some of them (he had two seasons with more receiving yards than Hardman's career total). The funny thing is that in the past, all their high WR picks have been blazers with meh college production: Taylor Price, Brandon Tate, Aaron Dobson, Bethel Johnson, Chad Jackson (who did have OK production). So last year, they finally take a guy who actually put up numbers in college (but didn't have a great 40) ... and all the unproductive college players had great years and Harry was awful.


JuJu was a Pac-12 guy and he was pretty darn good from jump. Davante Adams is really good. Adam Thielen went to Minnesota-Mankado; I don't even know what conference that's in. Keenan Allen, Robert, Woods, Cooks, Cooper Kupp, Tyler Lockett, Courtland Sutton, etc. There are tons of guys who come out of "lesser" conferences / programs and succeed.


You must be confusing him with someone else; Chark was a second-round pick.
I think you're selling Hogan way short. Over the course of the season and the playoffs in 2016, he had 55 catches for 1,012 yards for an 18.4ypc. If you remove the 79 yarder, you still get 17.2ypc, but we could do that for everyone and reduce their ypc by removing certain plays. Hogan ran a 4.5 at the combine, but he says the fastest he was timed was 4.39, and I honestly believe that. Edelman ran a 4.52 at the combine and reportedly ran a 4.40 low number in college, but having seen both of those guys in person a ton, IMO, Hogan could run by Edelman like he was standing still. This was a great article on Hogan, the athlete after his first game with the Pats: https://www.masslive.com/patriots/2016/10/new_england_patriots_wr_chris.html

Speed commands respect though. If a guy isn't fast, then you can press him all day long, corners are so fast now that if a slow receiver gets by them, they can just turn and run with them. That's why I posted those Yards before and after the catch numbers. Guys like Metcalf have to be respected on the LOS because if they get by you, you aren't catching them. So you give them a 5-8 yard cushion, they catch a quick throw and make guys miss. Harry can shed tackles, no doubt about that from what we've seen, but if guys are pressing him, which they'd be crazy not to, there's nothing there. If he was running a 4.35, you can't press him, because he gets a step and he's gone. Don't get me wrong, true technicians are a wonderful thing, like Keenan Allen, but they are so, so much harder to find than guys who have speed and can be taught. You can't teach speed.

I think we're seeing that Harry was more productive in college because of the competition he was facing (which is, of course, the reason why guys like Hardman weren't as productive). Give me a 4.40 who is semi-productive out of the SEC over a 4.53 guy who was super productive in the PAC-12 all day long. Look at the other guys you just noted Taylor Price (Ohio U, not Ohio State), Brandon Tate (UNC, but I never considered him a receiver, he was a kick returner and a good one at that), Aaron Dobson (Marshall, no, you aren't finding two Randy Moss' from the same school), Bethel Johnson (A&M, when it was a Big12 school). Coincidentally, one could argue their two decent WR picks in Chad Jackson and Malcolm MItchell, were you guessed it, out of the SEC. Man, I loved Malcolm Mitchell. Such a heartbreaking story. You also have to remember that as you go back in years, conferences change. The SEC wasn't THE SEC in 2002, and the Pac 12 in 2019 isn't the PAC 12 it was years before.

Sure, there's plenty of guys who come out of lesser conferences that succeed. Randy Moss is one of them. But those guys aren't typically getting drafted in the 1st round. My problem isn't that they picked Harry, it's where they picked him. You want to take a shot on a slower big receiver in the late 2nd, early 3rd, knock yourself out. And like I said, my hope for him is that he just had a rough year following the injury and was too far behind in his development and got shoved back on the field as a #1 outside threat before he was ready. My ideal scenario is he turns into Davante Adams. And don't get me started on Cooper Kupp. As you can tell, I'm not a guy who believes that productivity in college leads to productivity in the pros, but when we're talking about eye-popping productivity no matter what level they are playing at, like Cooper Kupp, Danny Woodhead, etc., those guys can play anywhere. I love Cooper Kupp (I also love Kendrick Bourne, who played second fiddle to him at Eastern Washington, I'm a bit of an FCS lunatic). Cooper Kupp's college stats are legitimately out of control and I was gutted when the Rams took him, because I thought he'd be a perfect fit in New England. For those that don't know, Kupp played in 52 career games, he had 428 catches, 6,464 yards and 73 tds' in college.

I thought Chark was drafted. For some reason, on their combine page, NFL reference shows him as undrafted: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/draft/2018-combine.htm. He's going to turn out to be a steal at 61 if Jacksonville can figure out their QB situation.
 

SMU_Sox

queer eye for the next pats guy
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2009
8,878
Dallas
I think you're selling Hogan way short. Over the course of the season and the playoffs in 2016, he had 55 catches for 1,012 yards for an 18.4ypc. If you remove the 79 yarder, you still get 17.2ypc, but we could do that for everyone and reduce their ypc by removing certain plays. Hogan ran a 4.5 at the combine, but he says the fastest he was timed was 4.39, and I honestly believe that. Edelman ran a 4.52 at the combine and reportedly ran a 4.40 low number in college, but having seen both of those guys in person a ton, IMO, Hogan could run by Edelman like he was standing still. This was a great article on Hogan, the athlete after his first game with the Pats: https://www.masslive.com/patriots/2016/10/new_england_patriots_wr_chris.html
28387

I think this is a good read on what athletic qualities matter. Not all athletic tests are of equal value. Not sure where you are getting the 4.39 from link wise but hand timing, which is what I guessed got him his 4.39, is not ideal. Hogan was not a burner. The guy had good long speed. Josh Gordon ran a 4.52. Look, anything under 4.55 is fine for long speed. Dez Bryant also ran a 4.52. Jerry rice ran a 4.7 something. I digress. As for what matters for a receiver over 6'0''? BMI, Height and Broad Jump.

Here is a comparison of Harry and Josh Gordon:
28388

You know why Gordon and a ton of other big receivers don't run the agility drills at the combine? Because most of them wouldn't test well there. It doesn't matter.

Harry and Gordon are the same on BMI, Height, Weight, and Broad Jump. If you wanted to find the most similar body and play style to Josh Gordon in the draft it would have been Harry imo. I didn't even like Harry but not because of the school he went to and conference he played it. More on that...

Speed commands respect though. If a guy isn't fast, then you can press him all day long, corners are so fast now that if a slow receiver gets by them, they can just turn and run with them. That's why I posted those Yards before and after the catch numbers. Guys like Metcalf have to be respected on the LOS because if they get by you, you aren't catching them. So you give them a 5-8 yard cushion, they catch a quick throw and make guys miss. Harry can shed tackles, no doubt about that from what we've seen, but if guys are pressing him, which they'd be crazy not to, there's nothing there. If he was running a 4.35, you can't press him, because he gets a step and he's gone. Don't get me wrong, true technicians are a wonderful thing, like Keenan Allen, but they are so, so much harder to find than guys who have speed and can be taught. You can't teach speed.
Speed is a trump card that I look for, sure. But PD has speed and sucks as an X. Why? Because he can't beat press. Guys who run under 4.35 face press all the time in the NFL. PD loses the battles outside, gets ridden into the sideline and doesn't give Brady any kind of window to throw to him. Now I don't see the games in person but I do have gamepass and I think it's evident there why PD loses on the outside. Another note zone concepts help mitigate the risk against speed receivers. Speed is a great thing to have as a WR but it isn't as important as you are making it out to be. Statistically it does NOT predict success for any type of receiver.

Your ability to have success in the vertical game doesn’t even have to be speed. You use your route running and release to get vertical too. If you just ran an inside breaking route you might feign an inside move to get the corner to react to that and turn on the jets vertically. If you beat a corner like that you can still get open down field because you’ve put them out of position and behind you. They can still close but you have a head start.
I think we're seeing that Harry was more productive in college because of the competition he was facing (which is, of course, the reason why guys like Hardman weren't as productive). Give me a 4.40 who is semi-productive out of the SEC over a 4.53 guy who was super productive in the PAC-12 all day long. Look at the other guys you just noted Taylor Price (Ohio U, not Ohio State), Brandon Tate (UNC, but I never considered him a receiver, he was a kick returner and a good one at that), Aaron Dobson (Marshall, no, you aren't finding two Randy Moss' from the same school), Bethel Johnson (A&M, when it was a Big12 school). Coincidentally, one could argue their two decent WR picks in Chad Jackson and Malcolm MItchell, were you guessed it, out of the SEC. Man, I loved Malcolm Mitchell. Such a heartbreaking story. You also have to remember that as you go back in years, conferences change. The SEC wasn't THE SEC in 2002, and the Pac 12 in 2019 isn't the PAC 12 it was years before.
Josh Gordon was a 4.52 guy coming out of Baylor. I don't think you should scout the helmet or conference like that. Pac 12 and Big 12 are light on defense, sure, but that doesn't mean you can't scout the traits. Also, Pac 12 has had some good corners in recent drafts as well as decent defenses like Washington, Stanford (usually), Arizona State, Utah, etc. In terms of the P5 defenses the past 3-10 years: SEC, Big 10, Pac 12, ACC, Big 12 with the studs being the SEC and Big 10. Also, just because a WR plays in the SEC doesn't mean their product is depressed. Hardman wasn't productive because 1) the QB play at Georgia sucks, 2) Fromm can't throw more than 15-20 yards down the field, 3) Georgia's offense didn't really fit his better skills. Hardman's perfect landing spot was a Hill role. He fell into the perfect spot. Hardman winds up on the Bengals or Browns and his rookie season probably looks a lot different.

This whole small sample size list and trying to determine whether past failures were predictable because of where they went to school is irrelevant. Laquon Treadwell was an SEC receiver who fell flat. Dorial Green-Beckham is out of the league after being picked 40th. He was an SEC guy. I think your logic is flawed here with regard to distilling success or failure predicated on school and conference. Even if there are other things you are pointing out like extreme production unless you are looking at the film of each guy box-score scouting is not going to tell you much. How is a guy winning? What's his skill set? What can he do for you and what makes him a fit is more important.

I wasn't big on Harry because I didn't like his route running as much as others, I didn't see him separate, I thought his technique catching the ball was problematic for a guy who was going to be a big slot or contested catch guy and I thought while he flashed beating press he didn't see much of it and needed to vary his footwork, clean it up and add to his repertoire beating it. He profiled to me as a big slot when we ideally needed an outside guy more. I was an AJ Brown guy but not because he played in the SEC. He played for Ole Miss which actually hurt his draft stock because they ran a grand total of 5 variations of 5 plays. DK ran like 3-6 routes total last year. Matt Luke's offense was such a joke I am glad he got fired.

Minor nitpick: Chad Jackson had 152 yards of receiving for them. That's not a decent pick.

Sure, there's plenty of guys who come out of lesser conferences that succeed. Randy Moss is one of them. But those guys aren't typically getting drafted in the 1st round. My problem isn't that they picked Harry, it's where they picked him. You want to take a shot on a slower big receiver in the late 2nd, early 3rd, knock yourself out. And like I said, my hope for him is that he just had a rough year following the injury and was too far behind in his development and got shoved back on the field as a #1 outside threat before he was ready. My ideal scenario is he turns into Davante Adams. And don't get me started on Cooper Kupp. As you can tell, I'm not a guy who believes that productivity in college leads to productivity in the pros, but when we're talking about eye-popping productivity no matter what level they are playing at, like Cooper Kupp, Danny Woodhead, etc., those guys can play anywhere. I love Cooper Kupp (I also love Kendrick Bourne, who played second fiddle to him at Eastern Washington, I'm a bit of an FCS lunatic). Cooper Kupp's college stats are legitimately out of control and I was gutted when the Rams took him, because I thought he'd be a perfect fit in New England. For those that don't know, Kupp played in 52 career games, he had 428 catches, 6,464 yards and 73 tds' in college.

I thought Chark was drafted. For some reason, on their combine page, NFL reference shows him as undrafted: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/draft/2018-combine.htm. He's going to turn out to be a steal at 61 if Jacksonville can figure out their QB situation.
Pac 12 Receivers taken in first 2 rounds:
2015: Nelson Agholor at 20
2016: none
2017: John Ross at 9 Juju at 62
2018: Dante Pettis 44
2019: Harry 32, JJAW 57

Mixed bag here wrt results but the sample size is 6 and for 2 of them they were rookies. The point is though that taking a WR from the Pac-12 at 32 isn't that big of a stretch in terms of normal behavior. John Ross ran a 4.25 and never should have been drafted in the first round let alone 9 but his speed translated to bupkis.

Last note: He's not a "slower receiver" unless you think guys like Josh Gordon and Dez Bryant are slower receivers. De'Andre Hopkins ran a 4.57. Is he a slower receiver too? Again I think you are overemphasizing the importance of speed and also ignoring thresholds.

Edit: I think you’ve created mistaken narratives on unfortunately half-baked or selective patterns you’ve observed that don’t hold up to scrutiny like the reasons they should not have taken Harry at 32 you mentioned. He is not slow nor is his speed concerning, his conference and level of competition are good in the Pac-12 and you shouldn’t be scouting the helmet and making those sweeping incorrect over generalizations. And again I didn’t even like Harry.
Further edit: cleaning up grammar from lack of sleep at 3:14 last night. Thanks, insomnia!
 
Last edited:

Super Nomario

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 5, 2000
14,012
Mansfield MA
Speed commands respect though. If a guy isn't fast, then you can press him all day long, corners are so fast now that if a slow receiver gets by them, they can just turn and run with them. That's why I posted those Yards before and after the catch numbers. Guys like Metcalf have to be respected on the LOS because if they get by you, you aren't catching them. So you give them a 5-8 yard cushion, they catch a quick throw and make guys miss. Harry can shed tackles, no doubt about that from what we've seen, but if guys are pressing him, which they'd be crazy not to, there's nothing there. If he was running a 4.35, you can't press him, because he gets a step and he's gone. Don't get me wrong, true technicians are a wonderful thing, like Keenan Allen, but they are so, so much harder to find than guys who have speed and can be taught. You can't teach speed.
There's some truth to this, but good corners are gonna press anyway (the one time I saw Metcalf really struggle in college was against Greedy Williams). You have to have some moves to beat press at the LOS. Harry was one of the worst at beating it in college of the WR I watched last year. Metcalf, even though he only lined up on the left and only ran a handful of routes, was probably the best. He had hand swipes, he could feint one way and go the other, and yeah, he had a speed release. But a lot of what I liked about Metcalf as an X was a developed box of press-beating tools that Harry didn't have. Speed is only part of the puzzle.

(Harry had some other advantages - he lined up everywhere, he ran a more diverse route tree, he made more contested catches, and he was better after the catch)

I thought Chark was drafted. For some reason, on their combine page, NFL reference shows him as undrafted: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/draft/2018-combine.htm. He's going to turn out to be a steal at 61 if Jacksonville can figure out their QB situation.
Anyone who has done work on NFL player databases can tell you initials (and suffixes) are the bane of their existence. Chark is listed as "D.J. Chark" (with periods) on the Combine page but "DJ Chark" on his main page.
 

Deathofthebambino

Drive Carefully
SoSH Member
Apr 12, 2005
41,949
View attachment 28387

I think this is a good read on what athletic qualities matter. Not all athletic tests are of equal value. Not sure where you are getting the 4.39 from link wise but hand timing, which is what I guessed got him his 4.39, is not ideal. Hogan was not a burner. The guy had good long speed. Josh Gordon ran a 4.52. Look, anything under 4.55 is fine for long speed. Dez Bryant also ran a 4.52. Jerry rice ran a 4.7 something. I digress. As for what matters for a receiver over 6'0''? BMI, Height and Broad Jump.

Here is a comparison of Harry and Josh Gordon:
View attachment 28388

You know why Gordon and a ton of other big receivers don't run the agility drills at the combine? Because most of them wouldn't test well there. It doesn't matter.

Harry and Gordon are the same on BMI, Height, Weight, and Broad Jump. If you wanted to find the most similar body and play style to Josh Gordon in the draft it would have been Harry imo. I didn't even like Harry but not because of the school he went to and conference he played it. More on that...



Speed is a trump card that I look for, sure. But PD has speed and sucks as an X. Why? Because he can't beat press. Guys who run under 4.35 face press all the time in the NFL. PD loses the battles outside, gets ridden into the sideline and doesn't give Brady any kind of window to throw to him. Now I don't see the games in person but I do have gamepass and I think it's evident there why PD loses on the outside. Another note zone concepts help mitigate the risk against speed receivers. Speed is a great thing to have as a WR but it isn't as important as you are making it out to be. Statistically it does NOT predict success for any type of receiver.

Your ability to have success in the vertical game doesn’t even have to be speed. You use your route running and release to get vertical too. If you just ran an inside breaking route you might feign an inside move to get the corner to react to that and turn on the jets vertically. If you beat a corner like that you can still get open down field because you’ve put them out of position and behind you. They can still close but you have a head start.


Josh Gordon was a 4.52 guy coming out of Baylor. I don't think you should scout the helmet or conference like that. Pac 12 and Big 12 are light on defense, sure, but that doesn't mean you can't scout the traits. Also, Pac 12 has had some good corners in recent drafts as well as decent defenses like Washington, Stanford (usually), Arizona State, Utah, etc. In terms of the P5 defenses the past 3-10 years: SEC, Big 10, Pac 12, ACC, Big 12 with the studs being the SEC and Big 10. Also, just because a WR plays in the SEC doesn't mean their product is depressed. Hardman wasn't productive because 1) the QB play at Georgia sucks, 2) Fromm can't throw more than 15-20 yards down the field, 3) Georgia's offense didn't really fit his better skills. Hardman's perfect landing spot was a Hill role. He fell into the perfect spot. Hardman winds up on the Bengals or Browns and his rookie season probably looks a lot different.

This whole small sample size list and trying to determine whether past failures were predictable because of where they went to school is irrelevant. Laquon Treadwell was an SEC receiver who fell flat. Dorial Green-Beckham is out of the league after being picked 40th. He was an SEC guy. I think your logic is flawed here with regard to distilling success or failure predicated on school and conference. Even if there are other things you are pointing out like extreme production unless you are looking at the film of each guy box-score scouting is not going to tell you much. How is a guy winning? What's his skill set? What can he do for you and what makes him a fit is more important.

I wasn't big on Harry because I didn't like his route running as much as others, I didn't see him separate, I thought his technique catching the ball was problematic for a guy who was going to be a big slot or contested catch guy and I thought while he flashed beating press he didn't see much of it and needed to vary his footwork, clean it up and add to his repertoire beating it. He profiled to me as a big slot when we ideally needed an outside guy more. I was an AJ Brown guy but not because he played in the SEC. He played for Ole Miss which actually hurt his draft stock because they ran a grand total of 5 variations of 5 plays. DK ran like 3-6 routes total last year. Matt Luke's offense was such a joke I am glad he got fired.

Minor nitpick: Chad Jackson had 152 yards of receiving for them. That's not a decent pick.



Pac 12 Receivers taken in first 2 rounds:
2015: Nelson Agholor at 20
2016: none
2017: John Ross at 9 Juju at 62
2018: Dante Pettis 44
2019: Harry 32, JJAW 57

Mixed bag here wrt results but the sample size is 6 and for 2 of them they were rookies. The point is though that taking a WR from the Pac-12 at 32 isn't that big of a stretch in terms of normal behavior. John Ross ran a 4.25 and never should have been drafted in the first round let alone 9 but his speed translated to bupkis.

Last note: He's not a "slower receiver" unless you think guys like Josh Gordon and Dez Bryant are slower receivers. De'Andre Hopkins ran a 4.57. Is he a slower receiver too? Again I think you are overemphasizing the importance of speed and also ignoring thresholds.

Edit: I think you’ve created mistaken narratives on unfortunately half-baked or selective patterns you’ve observed that don’t hold up to scrutiny like the reasons they should not have taken Harry at 32 you mentioned. He is not slow nor is his speed concerning, his conference and level of competition are good in the Pac-12 and you shouldn’t be scouting the helmet and making those sweeping incorrect over generalizations. And again I didn’t even like Harry.
Further edit: cleaning up grammar from lack of sleep at 3:14 last night. Thanks, insomnia!

SMU, didn't want you to think I was ignoring this post, I just haven't had time to get back to it, but it was excellent and I wanted to at least respond when I had a moment. Couple quick things, and then I'll try to give more substance later. Hogan was the one who said he ran a 4.39. Obviously, folks can take that with a grain of salt if they'd like, but from what my eyes told me watching him on the field in person, particularly when compared to a guy like Edelman, he was way, way faster. He had much longer strides, he was bigger and he just moved. One of the things I remember vividly about Hogan was almost any time he made a big play, defenders were constantly confused or looking around wondering where their help was. None of that really helps my argument that he was fast, just an observation I noticed. Probably more to do with the offensive gameplanning/playcalling than anything. https://nesn.com/2017/03/brandin-cooks-surpasses-chris-hogan-as-patriots-fastest-skill-player/

As for the conference thing, I'd love to do a true analysis on conferences and draft picks at some point. it's something I've thought about for a long time. Eliminating 2019 (i'm willing to give receivers a pass in their rookie year), you have 4 PAC-12 receivers taken in the 1st 2 rounds, and really, only one of them (JuJu, who the jury is certainly out on now that he doesn't have the other great weapons around him) ended up worth it, IMO. You've got far more coming out of the SEC and Big10, both on a total basis and a percentage basis, just working off memory. It's even more dramatic in 2014 where you had these guys taken in the 1st 2 rounds, Watkins (Clemson), Evans (A&M), OBJ (LSU), Cooks (Oregon State), Benjamin (Florida State), Marquise Lee (USC), Jordan Matthews (Vandy), Paul Richardson (Colorado), Adams (Fresno), Latimer (Indiana), Allen Robinson (Penn State) and Jarvis Landry (LSU). I think if we're ranking the pro careers of those receivers, it looks something like this:

OBJ
Evans
Landry
Adams
Cooks/Robinson
Watkins
Benjamin/Matthews
Richardson
Latimer

The top 3 all come from the SEC, then you have the outlier in Adams out of the MAC, and then you get to Cooks (PAC12) and Robinson (Big10) and then the rest, ACC, ACC, SEC (barely, Vandy), PAC12, Big 10 (Indiana, so barely). If you go back to 2013, you had one really great receiver come out of the 1st round which was Hopkins from Clemson and in 2012, you could probably only point to Alshon Jeffery out of South Carolina as being a steal. Meanwhile, both of those drafts are littered with high 1st and 2nd round picks from non-SEC/Big10/Clemson conferences that were pretty terrible. Tavon Austin at 8th overall from West Virginia, Justin Blackmon from Oklahoma State at #5, Michael Floyd out of Notre Dame at #13, Kendall Wright from Baylor at #20, AJ Jenkins from Illinois, Brian Quick from App State, etc. In 2013, you had both Cordarelle Patterson and Justin Hunter come out of TN and I would argue they both flopped too, although CPAT has put together a pretty good career.

I won't argue that I put too much faith in specific conferences (and FTR, I'm not a conference guy, I went to a college with no football program so I have no rooting interest when it comes to NCAA football, I follow players more than teams) when it comes to drafting for a bunch of reasons, but when I talk about the "competition they face," I'm not just talking about their opponents. I'm talking about the guys in practice they have to beat out to get a starting role, and the guys they have to go up against every day. A kid from LSU or Bama is facing the best of the best every single day, not just on Saturdays and IMO, it makes a difference that someone at Washington State or Arizona State isn't seeing. That's why even though a school like Vandy or Indiana, while in a big conference and facing opponents who have serious talent, i don't view as being as high an NFL prospect as someone from say, Clemson or Ohio State.

Again, this topic needs way more attention and study than I can give it right now, just wanted to give you some feedback on where I'm coming from. One of the things I like to do around draft time, with respect to skill position players is go back and look at their specific game logs and see how they did against great competition. For example, Jordan Matthews went to Vandy for 4 years, played in the SEC, and yet, he never played against Alabama or LSU and he only played once against Auburn. He had a lot of big games against the Ole Miss's of the world, and played ok against Georgia, etc., but for the most part, he wasn't playing the best of the best either in practice or in games. That's one of the reasons I didn't like him coming out of the draft (especially in that class).
 

SMU_Sox

queer eye for the next pats guy
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2009
8,878
Dallas
@Deathofthebambino to be honest even though I wrote what I did I still prefer guys who have good SEC tape all other things being roughly equal. My top WRs this year for the Pats are, so far in order: Jerry Jerudy, Ruggs and then Justin Jefferson. All guys from the SEC. The SEC is a different animal. I view the other 4 P5 programs somewhat equally.
My 4th favorite fit is KJ Hamler is from Penn State. Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan are not in the SEC but they are power programs who recruit the best prospects each year. So 2/4 guys I like are speed demons. Ruggs in particular knows how to use it and has all the other tools in the tool box you'd want. John Ross only knew how to blow out his hamstring.
Last minor note. It's hard to find WRs in the big 12 who have reps against press. For me I like to watch 1-2 games of each prospect in the beginning to get a flavor and then 1-2 more after the combine. Some guys I will go 4 games and maybe have 10 reps against press. I think one of the interesting things I have learned from the experts along the way is that reps as a gunner in ST can be predictive of success against press. So I try to find ST reps too if I can. I wish I had access to a lot more all-22. I do have some occasionally but most of the time I am half in the dark with broadcast view not knowing the play call. I am about as armchair and amateur as you can get. :)