JDM

[chrisfont9]

Let's not forget Boras wasn't even his agent at this time last year. JD made the decision to switch agents on the eve of free agency, so in my mind he deserves this slap in the face he's being given

I've always been disgusted by the idea that Boras somehow has the power to command larger salaries than his players would have gotten simply because he's Scott Boras and teams should be afraid of him and his large binders. I'm sure he's done well for his clients at times, but I'm also pretty sure it's not rocket science.

 

[InsideTheParker]

I could see signing Nunez to basically be Brock Holt with a better bat and similar versatility (albeit much worse defense).

But you aren’t suggesting singing him instead of Martinez, right?

If the jdm sign falls through, he seems like a good bat who can play a little defense. He turned the season around for awhile last year.

 

[nvalvo]

I think JDM just wants a formal offer from a another team no matter what the terms are, so he can create some kind of hand hold.

While I doubt he was realistically expecting to get 210 million, I'll bet he was thinking 150 was an absolute worst case scenario.

I don't feel sorry for Martinez, but his agent has really f'ed this thing up.

Exactly. Martinez has just been worth 5, 2, and 4 fWAR in his last three years. So projected 3-2-1 style, that's (5+2x2+3x4)/6=3.5. If you expect him to repeat that for the next two years, and then decline half a win per year over a six year deal, he should produce 3.5+3.5+3+2.5+2+1.5=16 projected wins. At last year's rate of $8m/WAR, we'd expect something like 5/$116 or 6/$128.

But the pattern has been for over a decade that $/WAR is subject to a slow but steady inflation, which probably made him think that he'd ask for $200m, and then settle somewhere in the $150-180m range, with the higher estimates coming in from teams who were either optimistic about his health going forward, or else believe that he can maintain the crazy HR/FB ratio we saw in his second half, and thus project him more rosily than I did. If you think he's a 5 win player the next few years — which he totally might be — it would be easy to talk yourself into a $180m offer.

Here's the thing: that slow but steady $/WAR inflation appears to be suffering a sharp reversal, similar to the "correction" that happened in the wake of the huge Manny/A-Rod type deals from the late 1990s early 2000s. And if that figure isn't going to inch up to $9 or $10m/WAR over the course of the deal, it's less and less likely that he'll "earn" $150m. And, well, that ratio appears to be heading down, if anything.

I'm not sure that's really Boras' fault, but your general point stands.

 

[Average Reds]

Sir,
You seem to believe that you can determine that sourced quotes are false.

Well, I can absolutely determine when someone is completely full of shit. And anyone claiming to be so mad at the Red Sox for refusing to negotiate with themselves that they will sign an inferior deal with another team is full of shit.

You also appear not to be an experienced negotiator if you cannot recognize the potential cost and benefit of any additional terms or conditions in a contract.

I'm experienced enough to know not to make a concession because my negotiating adversary is telling me the equivalent of "NO FAIR.'

What do you want me to say?

Respectfully,
Hawk

I think you've said quite enough.

 

[PrometheusWakefield]

I vaguely remember reading somewhere that Boras basically makes players agree to go along with every public statement that Boras thinks is useful for playing the media as a condition of his contract.

Does anyone remember seeing something like that?

 

[Average Reds]

Opt out(s) provide the player flexibility. It also provides the team a way to close the deal and potentially retain the player only during his presumably most productive (youngest) seasons without adding years or money.

The implication of the bolded section is false.

Let me be specific: you were careful to say that the player option gives the team the potential to retain the player only during the most productive seasons, but that potential is based both on the player deciding to opt-out and being wrong about his performance over the remainder of his career.

By definition, the opt-out provides value to the player. It also means that the team assumes all the risk.

Quite literally, an opt-out only provides a benefit to the team if the competition for the free agent is robust. In that case, the certainty of acquiring the player may justify offering an opt-out.

If the quote attributed to JDM is accurate, an opt-out is foolish for the Sox to consider.

 

[cannonball 1729]

I've always been disgusted by the idea that Boras somehow has the power to command larger salaries than his players would have gotten simply because he's Scott Boras and teams should be afraid of him and his large binders. I'm sure he's done well for his clients at times, but I'm also pretty sure it's not rocket science.

Yeah - Boras is doing what he's always done. He's really good at waiting out teams and somehow getting them to bid against themselves, as well as taking the flack for protracted negotiations. It's just that this year, no one's biting. It's happened before (remember how Varitek wanted some exorbitant amount of money in 2009, or when Stephen Drew lost $4 million by waiting out the qualifying offer in 2014?). Not every hand is a winner.

(Incidentally, I think someone once wrote an article on Scott Boras for sosh.com...)

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

By definition, the opt-out provides value to the player. It also means that the team assumes all the risk.

I'm not trying to resurrect the opt-out arguments of the past, and I agree with your position, but I'll add just this small point that I think gets at the nub of the mostly-wrong "opt-outs benefit the team, too" argument. The player does retain the slight risk that he ill-advisedly exercises the opt-out. For example, the guy opts out this year thinking that the market for him will exceed his remaining deal, only to find the same market correction going on that JDM et al are experiencing.

On a separate but related note, I was mildly surprised that Tanaka didn't opt out this offseason, figuring he could at least squeeze a few extra bucks out of the MFYs, if not an extra year. But maybe he and his agent knew both that the Yankees would use the opportunity to move on (as many have speculated) AND that the market was heading for a correction. In other words, Tanaka's example might be evidence that the agents saw this coming. Justin Upton signing a quick, seemingly team-friendly deal with the LAAA might be further evidence of that.

 

[Average Reds]

I'm not trying to resurrect the opt-out arguments of the past, and I agree with your position, but I'll add just this small point that I think gets at the nub of the mostly-wrong "opt-outs benefit the team, too" argument. The player does retain the slight risk that he ill-advisedly exercises the opt-out. For example, the guy opts out this year thinking that the market for him will exceed his remaining deal, only to find the same market correction going on that JDM et al are experiencing.

You are correct, but the risks are different in kind, not degree. I’ll use David Price as an example of what I mean.

If he has three blowout years with the Sox, he opts-out, gets a richer deal and possibly an added year or two. But, if he struggles or has a major injury, all he has to do is nothing and the Sox just keep paying him. All the risk associated with his Sox contract is with the Sox.

There is also possibility that Price has a decent year next year, misreads the market, opts-out and finds no takers. He is suddenly at risk, but not because of his deal. He’s at risk because he’s a dumbass. (Hypothetically, of course.)

 

[dynomite]

If the jdm sign falls through, he seems like a good bat who can play a little defense. He turned the season around for awhile last year.

Oh, completely agreed he was an incredible addition — .321/.353/.539 with 8 HR in 38 games. That was wild and a ton of fun to watch.

But his stats during that stretch didn’t seem particularly sustainable — his .341 BABIP was out of character (his career average is .308) and his .218 ISO was well above his career norm (never above .149). Steamer projects Nunez’s ISO in the .150s for this season, while Martinez is projected in the .260s.

If the Sox are looking for pop and JDM heads elsewhere, Duda and Morrison seem like more similar replacements.

 

[pokey_reese]

You are correct, but the risks are different in kind, not degree. I’ll use David Price as an example of what I mean.

If he has three blowout years with the Sox, he opts-out, gets a richer deal and possibly an added year or two. But, if he struggles or has a major injury, all he has to do is nothing and the Sox just keep paying him. All the risk associated with his Sox contract is with the Sox.

There is also possibility that Price has a decent year next year, misreads the market, opts-out and finds no takers. He is suddenly at risk, but not because of his deal. He’s at risk because he’s a dumbass. (Hypothetically, of course.)

There needs to be such a thing as a 'performance opt-out' that is neither a player nor team option.

Say JDM signs a 5 year, $125 million contact with a performance opt-out in the third year. You take the 10th and 90th percentile projections for a player (or 20th and 80th or whatever), and as long as his performance in year three falls within that expected range, the rest of the contract goes on as normal. If, however, he hits the 90th percentile benchmark, then he can choose to opt out, and parlay that over performance into a new contract. But, if instead it's the 10th percentile performance that comes true, the team can opt-out. Maybe you throw in an injury clause that negates it if the player misses at least 50 games with an injury, to avoid DL shenanigans, or teams penalizing guys who just get hurt.

Teams would be a lot more willing to sign players to big, long contracts if they had some hope of escaping the worst-case scenario of a guy cratering, and players would be able to bet on themselves being at least adequate, with upside if they really kill it.

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

There needs to be such a thing as a 'performance opt-out' that is neither a player nor team option.

Say JDM signs a 5 year, $125 million contact with a performance opt-out in the third year. You take the 10th and 90th percentile projections for a player (or 20th and 80th or whatever), and as long as his performance in year three falls within that expected range, the rest of the contract goes on as normal. If, however, he hits the 90th percentile benchmark, then he can choose to opt out, and parlay that over performance into a new contract. But, if instead it's the 10th percentile performance that comes true, the team can opt-out. Maybe you throw in an injury clause that negates it if the player misses at least 50 games with an injury, to avoid DL shenanigans, or teams penalizing guys who just get hurt.

Teams would be a lot more willing to sign players to big, long contracts if they had some hope of escaping the worst-case scenario of a guy cratering, and players would be able to bet on themselves being at least adequate, with upside if they really kill it.

MLB contracts can't contain performance related option clauses .. only things like Games Played (like Hanley's)

 

[Manramsclan]

If the Sox are looking for pop and JDM heads elsewhere, Duda and Morrison seem like more similar replacements.

On one level I agree with this statement.

On another level there is a high potentiality that those Duda/Morrison bats are not game changers. Wouldn't it be more prudent to go with the guy with positional flexibility and rotate Devers/Hanley/Dustin through DH? You could keep Hanley's option from vesting, get a potential defensive upgrade in the field when Devers sits, and hedge against a Pedrioa injury.

I'm all for a JDM signing to give this team the power that it lacks, but the other peripherals of those other two guys and the available options are not as exciting of those of JDM. Maybe they hit 70-80% of the homers he hits, but otherwise they are not nearly as good of offensive players that he is, and they are just as limited defensively.

 

[pokey_reese]

MLB contracts can't contain performance related option clauses .. only things like Games Played (like Hanley's)

Oh yeah, I was just saying that such a thing should exist. Obviously, the current CBA is fraying anyhow, so I'm just thinking that if players want more opt-outs AND want old veterans to be given bigger, longer deals, this would be a way to balance it out.

While we are at it, we could just say that teams have a minimum payroll tied to a percentage of total revenue from the previous season + their distribution from any competitive balance taxes/luxury thresholds, or something. Make it so that the players benefit from growing revenues as well as the owners. It just seems like there are a few issues at play here that are going to require changes or outside-the-box thinking to satisfy both sides, but that they are all solvable problems in the long run.

 

[moondog80]

It needs to be said that in two of the more recent cases of opting-out (A-Rod and Sabathia), it turned out that the player did the team a favor by opting out. The fact that the Yankees didn't take advantage of it is another matter.

The only other recent opt-out I can think of is Zack Geinke, who has had one mediocre year and one great year since opting out of his Dodgers deal. The jury is still out on that one.

I am not convinced that a blanket player opt-out after say, 2 years in any deal of 7+ years would end up hurting teams, on average.

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

 

[soxhop411]

At this point the Sox should just pull their offer. Martinez doesn’t want to be here

 

[snowmanny]

It needs to be said that in two of the more recent cases of opting-out (A-Rod and Sabathia), it turned out that the player did the team a favor by opting out. The fact that the Yankees didn't take advantage of it is another matter.

So in both of those cases the opt-out clause was bad for the team.

But theoretically it could have been good for the team and bad for the player if the player/agent didn't have a good read of the situation and play it to the player's advantage. Gotcha.

 

[Manramsclan]

At this point the Sox should just pull their offer. Martinez doesn’t want to be here

How does this move benefit the Red Sox?

They've stated their terms at which they would like to have him play for the Red Sox. If he doesn't like them that's his choice. Pulling the offer is just an ego play. There's really no reason to do it. s

 

[koufax32]

Really? Maybe I’m wishcasting a bit but that type of statement is exactly what I was expecting in order to shake a few more dollars loose from BOS. I can see him going back to ARI if their offer is reasonably close but short of that it reads like we’re nearing the end.


This was in response to soxhop.

 

[soxin6]

How does this move benefit the Red Sox?

They've stated their terms at which they would like to have him play for the Red Sox. If he doesn't like them that's his choice. Pulling the offer is just an ego play. There's really no reason to do it. s

I disagree. The Red Sox could end up committing themselves to 120+ million dollars for a player that doesn't really want to play here and the Red Sox don't have the best track record with players coming to Boston for the money. If JD Martinez doesn't want to play in Boston for the Red Sox "best offer", I would prefer that he not settle for coming here and end up underperforming his contract.

 

[edoug]

Really? Maybe I’m wishcasting a bit but that type of statement is exactly what I was expecting in order to shake a few more dollars loose from BOS. I can see him going back to ARI if their offer is reasonably close but short of that it reads like we’re nearing the end.

Yeah the BNN, Boras News Network, is in full propaganda mode.

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

At this point the Sox should just pull their offer. Martinez doesn’t want to be here

I don’t think this is necessarily true. What Martinez wanted is $200+ MM, which he’s just not going to get.

Now, JDM’s probably accepted that he’s not going to get so much money, but that doesn’t mean Boras isn’t going to try getting DDski to bid against himself.

Although, I think the strategy for the Sox should be identical to what AZ is reported to have done: offer a choice between 5 yrs/$120M ($24 AAV) and 2 yrs/$55M ($27.5 AAV) and let him choose which he prefers. AZ isn’t going to match either number.

Of course, if there are truly personal reasons JDM doesn’t want to play in Boston, and Boras is just using the Sox to drive up the price from AZ, so be it.

 

[chawson]

Between his affection for Tom Brady and his tweet from a few years ago about how playing in Fenway was on his "bucket list," I'd be surprised if he's against playing for the Red Sox as a matter of preference.

Story's changing multiple times a day now, the dam should break soon.

 

[Harry Hooper]

A 2-year contract offer from the Sox also might be more attractive if he really would prefer not to DH. He can come to Fenway, put up some gaudy numbers, and then head elsewhere.

 

[MikeM]

As I already noted a few days back, fairly predictable alternative play to the otherwise complete surrender out of Boras that everybody here seems to be waiting on. Which certainly isn't a good thing for the JDM-to-Boston possibility if it's true either.

 

[Manramsclan]

Yeah the BNN, Boras News Network, is in full propaganda mode.

I agree, to me this leak is Boras blinking.

 

[Sampo Gida]

It just seems to me that they are not too far apart. Throw in a couple of player options for 10 million a year and bump the total guarantee to 7/150

Otherwise someone's going to get smart and think outside the box

3 years for 90 million with 60 deferred over 20 years and an opt out after 1 year and 2 years. Four team options after year 3 for 25 million.

Now you have Boras saying 7/190 even if not all is guaranteed and teams not close to the LT threshold like the D-Backs can get in.

The other thing is say JDM caves in May and accepts 5/125 and is crap in 2018 and frankly unmotivated for the next 4 years sulking.

If he is not signed over the weekend just walk away DD. Some decent bats still available. End this nonsense

 

[Jerry’s Curl]

I would love to grab JDM on a 2-year deal at a higher AAV, although he will likely opt for the 5-year deal. I think he will get signed soon, it has come down to a blinking contest between DD and Borass and DD has no reason to do anything except leave the current offer as-is. The increased chatter from Borass tells me he’s getting impatient and may have to swallow his pride to get his client a deal. I think JDM will help the Sox a lot this season but I would be perfectly content waiting until July to acquire a bat.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

It just seems to me that they are not too far apart. Throw in a couple of player options for 10 million a year and bump the total guarantee to 7/150

Once again, it would be idiotic to add options or otherwise bump up their guaranteed offer based solely on being impatient to get a deal done. If Martinez has a better offer than what the Red Sox have on the table now, then they should modify it or increase its value. Short of that, they should not be offering a penny more than they already have.

On the other hand, putting a second shorter offer with a higher AAV on the table would make a ton of sense, particularly if the other team in the running has done the same. If the Diamondbacks have both a short term and a long term offer out there, then there's every reason to mimic their efforts but offer slightly more money. Be the highest bidder and if Martinez takes a lesser deal from someone else, what can you do?

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

We keep talking about Martinez not having a market beyond Boston, but I guess the flipside of this is that it's not like Dombrowski has signed (or even really been connected to) any alternatives, either, unless you count Moreland. I would think that if he was at all interested in Morrison or whomever he would have moved on to one of those options by now, so he must be thinking Martinez is the only option worth bothering with.

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

We keep talking about Martinez not having a market beyond Boston, but I guess the flipside of this is that it's not like Dombrowski has signed (or even really been connected to) any alternatives, either, unless you count Moreland. I would think that if he was at all interested in Morrison or whomever he would have moved on to one of those options by now, so he must be thinking Martinez is the only option worth bothering with.

The alternative that DDski found so far is to revamp the team’s overall hitting philosophy by replacing the coaching staff.

Five Red Sox combined to hit a total of 42 HR fewer in 2017 than they did in 2016 (Hanley, Pedey, Mookie, X, and JBJ). This in a season when HR rates rose dramatically.

Ideally, one would want to see a big bounce-back from them in addition to signing a thumper like JDM. But it’s not just HR and SLG that matter; JDM’s high contact rate makes him by far the best option for a middle-of-the-order bat among the current FA class.

However, if he refuses to sign, there are still sufficient power-hitting options out there, albeit ones which don’t fit into the current roster quite as well, nor whose contact rates are as good overall for a 3/4 hitter.

I feel the situation is sort of like when Matt Holiday was the obvious answer to replace Jason Bay. Hopefully this time the Sox can get their man.

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

Once again, it would be idiotic to add options or otherwise bump up their guaranteed offer based solely on being impatient to get a deal done. If Martinez has a better offer than what the Red Sox have on the table now, then they should modify it or increase its value. Short of that, they should not be offering a penny more than they already have.

On the other hand, putting a second shorter offer with a higher AAV on the table would make a ton of sense, particularly if the other team in the running has done the same. If the Diamondbacks have both a short term and a long term offer out there, then there's every reason to mimic their efforts but offer slightly more money. Be the highest bidder and if Martinez takes a lesser deal from someone else, what can you do?

Agreed.

Boras has started to spread rumors that he's looking to go back to Arizona on short term prove it deals. The problem is, there's nothing to prove. His ceiling can't be any higher. Great bat, shit defense, too big of a risk to give 7 years to. One year deals only fuck him over in the long run because each year that goes by he pushes another year past his prime.

Considering he's only had one full year of baseball under his belt, it would be pretty fucking stupid to sign a short term deal.

Sign the market value deal or go pout. Those are the options.

 

[dynomite]

Between his affection for Tom Brady and his tweet from a few years ago about how playing in Fenway was on his "bucket list," I'd be surprised if he's against playing for the Red Sox as a matter of preference.

Story's changing multiple times a day now, the dam should break soon.

Yeah, I think we should remain skeptical of these unattributed JDM tidbits leaked to a national baseball reporter. As you say, look at all the negotiating tactics being thrown at the wall in the story. ("I'll hold out until I get my asking price! ... I'm fed up with the Red Sox! ... But I'm also talking to Arizona!") And all of this is well timed, given that New England is finally turning its attention back to the Red Sox this week.

It's obviously possible that Martinez could sign a short contract elsewhere with a huge AAV, but coming off his career year I seriously doubt that's his first choice.

I still think Martinez ends up with the Red Sox, possibly with a face-saving 6th year team option/buyout.

On one level I agree with this statement.

On another level there is a high potentiality that those Duda/Morrison bats are not game changers. Wouldn't it be more prudent to go with the guy with positional flexibility and rotate Devers/Hanley/Dustin through DH? You could keep Hanley's option from vesting, get a potential defensive upgrade in the field when Devers sits, and hedge against a Pedrioa injury.

I'm all for a JDM signing to give this team the power that it lacks, but the other peripherals of those other two guys and the available options are not as exciting of those of JDM. Maybe they hit 70-80% of the homers he hits, but otherwise they are not nearly as good of offensive players that he is, and they are just as limited defensively.

I definitely agree that single-mindedly focusing on HR is not the best way to evaluate hitters -- that's part of why I was hoping that the Red Sox would swoop in and grab Carlos Santana (instead of Moreland).

But, when it comes to Nunez, unless you buy into his 38 game sample with the Sox last season, he's just not the offensive player that Martinez and Morrison are, and he's pretty close to Duda, too.

2017 full season stats:
JD Martinez: .430 wOBA, 166 wRC+
Logan Morrison: .363 wOBA, 130 wRC+
Carlos Santana: .350 wOBA, 117 wRC+
Eduardo Nunez: .342 wOBA, 112 wRC+
Lucas Duda: .341 wOBA, 113 wRC+

And then consider that in 2015 & 2016, Nunez put up a 105 and 101 wRC+ while even Duda put up a 132 and a 91 (while hurt in 2016 and only playing 47 games).

I'll definitely grant that the positional flexibility is a really nice factor for Nunez, but the advanced stats suggest his defense is pretty poor and Nunez might want a guaranteed starting job, which the Red Sox can't really offer once Pedey returns.

Edit: also, if “high potentiality” was the reference I think it was, I love you. You aren’t just any common m-fer.

 

[chawson]

But, when it comes to Nunez, unless you buy into his 38 game sample with the Sox last season, he's just not the offensive player that Martinez and Morrison are, and he's pretty close to Duda, too.

2017 full season stats:
JD Martinez: .430 wOBA, 166 wRC+
Logan Morrison: .363 wOBA, 130 wRC+
Carlos Santana: .350 wOBA, 117 wRC+
Eduardo Nunez: .342 wOBA, 112 wRC+
Lucas Duda: .341 wOBA, 113 wRC+

Morrison seemed to get figured out, no?

He was a swing change guy and the all-or-nothing hitting philosophy in Tampa probably helped. But after his killer May and June he hit .236/.339/.442 July 2 on—a 112 wRC+. Decent numbers, but not out of line for his career marks.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

There needs to be such a thing as a 'performance opt-out' that is neither a player nor team option.

Say JDM signs a 5 year, $125 million contact with a performance opt-out in the third year. You take the 10th and 90th percentile projections for a player (or 20th and 80th or whatever), and as long as his performance in year three falls within that expected range, the rest of the contract goes on as normal. If, however, he hits the 90th percentile benchmark, then he can choose to opt out, and parlay that over performance into a new contract. But, if instead it's the 10th percentile performance that comes true, the team can opt-out. Maybe you throw in an injury clause that negates it if the player misses at least 50 games with an injury, to avoid DL shenanigans, or teams penalizing guys who just get hurt.

Teams would be a lot more willing to sign players to big, long contracts if they had some hope of escaping the worst-case scenario of a guy cratering, and players would be able to bet on themselves being at least adequate, with upside if they really kill it.

This is not that far from Charlie O Finley's idea of having everyone sign one-year contracts.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

2017 full season stats:
JD Martinez: .430 wOBA, 166 wRC+
Logan Morrison: .363 wOBA, 130 wRC+
Carlos Santana: .350 wOBA, 117 wRC+
Eduardo Nunez: .342 wOBA, 112 wRC+
Lucas Duda: .341 wOBA, 113 wRC+

Speaking of Duda, interesting tweet on him from Perpetua this morning:

I posit batters who produce high EV BIP on a wider range of launch angles are superior hitters. Stanton, for example, is off the charts (I'm looking at -10 to 40, and he goes off both sides). Judge is similar. Trout. Ya know who else does it? Lucas Duda.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

We keep talking about Martinez not having a market beyond Boston, but I guess the flipside of this is that it's not like Dombrowski has signed (or even really been connected to) any alternatives, either, unless you count Moreland. I would think that if he was at all interested in Morrison or whomever he would have moved on to one of those options by now, so he must be thinking Martinez is the only option worth bothering with.

I think this is absolutely the case. He'll sign Martinez for the right price because he represents a true upgrade to the current roster, but if he can't sign him, it's not as though the roster has a gaping hole in it as a result. Every position is still covered with who is under contract right now. It might not be the ideal fantasy league roster that some fans and media would prefer, but it is a complete one. It is also one that, despite general under-performance up and down the lineup, still won 93 games and the division last season. A return to form or even just good health is an upgrade that doesn't really cost a thing.

 

[dynomite]

Morrison seemed to get figured out, no?

He was a swing change guy and the all-or-nothing hitting philosophy in Tampa probably helped. But after his killer May and June he hit .236/.339/.442 July 2 on—a 112 wRC+. Decent numbers, but not out of line for his career marks.

That’s a totally fair point — I’ll be honest and say I’m not familiar enough with Morrison to weigh in on why his numbers were what they were. Still, pretty remarkable that his “bad” 2nd half was about equal offensively to Nunez’s full season.

I will say I don’t mean to be so down on Nunez — he was a hell of a lot of fun to watch and offers incredible versatility, which could be good for this Red Sox team given Pedroia’s health and Devers’ defensive issues. I started this whole thought process responding to the idea of Nunez being a JDM alternative.

 

[nvalvo]

So now we have national media people claiming (Heyman, and at least according to Twitter, Nightengale) that Arizona has a "very similar" offer (Heyman's words) on the table for JDM. (Link to Heyman's piece)

This is more of the Boras noise endgame, right?

 

[sean1562]

Kind of telling that they cut it off at 100 mil no? I imagine their absolute highest offer is 5/100, which isnt really all that close. If he wants that, he should take it. He has no leverage. Pick the offer you like and sign

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

So now we have national media people claiming (Heyman, and at least according to Twitter, Nightengale) that Arizona has a "very similar" offer (Heyman's words) on the table for JDM. (Link to Heyman's piece)

This is more of the Boras noise endgame, right?

Probably. The only way to get Dombrowski to up his offer is to convince him that there is another one on the table that Martinez is actually willing to take instead of what Boston has sitting there.

 

[Max Power]

We keep talking about Martinez not having a market beyond Boston, but I guess the flipside of this is that it's not like Dombrowski has signed (or even really been connected to) any alternatives, either, unless you count Moreland. I would think that if he was at all interested in Morrison or whomever he would have moved on to one of those options by now, so he must be thinking Martinez is the only option worth bothering with.

The other option is sticking with Bryce Brentz, who is out of options and will have to be moved/released if Martinez is signed. You're not going to drop him for someone who might not be any better and doesn't play the outfield, like Duda or Morrison.

 

[dynomite]

And, of course, there's still the chance that Dombrowski isn't bluffing, and he's content to head into 2018 with nearly the exact same roster that won the AL East in 2017 and look to upgrade in June/July.

 

[Clears Cleaver]

And, of course, there's still the chance that Dombrowski isn't bluffing, and he's content to head into 2018 with nearly the exact same roster that won the AL East in 2017 and look to upgrade in June/July.

which sounds all fine and dandy, except the team has no farm system. And fewer tradeable assets than two of the three teams it needs to beat (NYY and Houston). The best and only option for this team to improve the roster, sadly, is via FA. And, normally, this FA market would benefit a team like Boston, would could step in and get good players below perhaps what they might have commanded in past (likely not very great value per $ spent). But, between the hard/soft cap and the expected decline in revenues, and perhaps the realization that no one or even two players would make them mathematical favorites in their own division, never mind the league, there is zero reason to move off the bid

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

Probably. The only way to get Dombrowski to up his offer is to convince him that there is another one on the table that Martinez is actually willing to take instead of what Boston has sitting there.

I think this is where the long wait hurts both JDM and Boras. It's not that hard for a player to "justify" taking what many believe to be a lower offer from a particular team when the player and agent can reasonably spin it as being done for non-monetary reasons (the "hometown" discount, the always-wanted-to-play-for-X discount, etc.) JDM could have done that with AZ... IF he had signed 2-3 months ago, like Upton did with LAAA.

But now? What would be Boras' explanation for why JDM took a lesser offer from AZ than he got from Boston, 3+ months into free agency? Because JDM always wanted to re-sign with AZ? That doesn't wash. The narrative will be that Boras grossly overplayed his hand and lost control of the negotiations. That doesn't attract more clients, so it's certainly NOT a result that Boras wants. At all. JDM could still do it, out of petulance or whatever. But it would certainly make Boras look bad.

So the only way BOS is likely to lose out in this is if AZ gets really close to BOS's offer and/or offers something particularly unusual. Since AZ is already at a franchise high payroll, I'm having a hard time believing that they'll go an extra $22-25M+ to add the all-bat, no-glove JDM. The guesses to date have been that AZ hasn't made competitive offers to JDM yet, even though they would like to keep him, because they need to shed significant salary first. That hasn't happened. And doesn't look very likely...

 

[chawson]

which sounds all fine and dandy, except the team has no farm system. And fewer tradeable assets than two of the three teams it needs to beat (NYY and Houston). The best and only option for this team to improve the roster, sadly, is via FA. And, normally, this FA market would benefit a team like Boston, would could step in and get good players below perhaps what they might have commanded in past (likely not very great value per $ spent). But, between the hard/soft cap and the expected decline in revenues, and perhaps the realization that no one or even two players would make them mathematical favorites in their own division, never mind the league, there is zero reason to move off the bid

Minor quibble. DD can also improve the roster or farm by taking on other teams’ bad contracts. Like the Padres did with Headley and Bryan Mitchell (but on a different scale). Those options are far less visible than free agents, but they’re out there.

 

[OCD SS]

The other wild card to look at when considering Az. As a home for his fielding is the potential for the NL to add the DH.

If AZ thinks this is on the horizon, they might suffer through a year or two of bad defense.

 

[dynomite]

which sounds all fine and dandy, except the team has no farm system. And fewer tradeable assets than two of the three teams it needs to beat (NYY and Houston). The best and only option for this team to improve the roster, sadly, is via FA. And, normally, this FA market would benefit a team like Boston, would could step in and get good players below perhaps what they might have commanded in past (likely not very great value per $ spent). But, between the hard/soft cap and the expected decline in revenues, and perhaps the realization that no one or even two players would make them mathematical favorites in their own division, never mind the league, there is zero reason to move off the bid

That's reasonable, and I agree that there's not much reason to move off the bid. I will say that I don't know that free agency is the "only" option for the 2018 Red Sox to be better than 2017. As others have suggested:

1) Mookie: He's only 25 and saw his OPS decline nearly .100 points last season. If he's closer to 2016 Mookie than 2017 Mookie that's a huge "improvement" to the roster.

2) Devers: The Sox had the 27th ranked OPS in baseball by all players at 3B last season, a putrid .677 put up by a revolving door of guys like Sandoval (.600 OPS in 97 PA), Marrero (.630 OPS in 147 PA), and Rutledge (.600 OPS in 64 PA) before finally giving the keys to Devers. A full season of Devers should be an enormous upgrade there.

3) Price: Getting more than the 11 starts he made last year will hopefully be an upgrade (Fister was replacement level overall in his 90 IP).

Etc.

Edit: I get that's a lot of Gammons style "ifs," but Dombrowski could feel like each one is relatively likely on its own and be content to wait until July to reassess.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Minor quibble. DD can also improve the roster or farm by taking on other teams’ bad contracts. Like the Padres did with Headley and Bryan Mitchell (but on a different scale). Those options are far less visible than free agents, but they’re out there.

I can see how this strategy makes sense for a team that isn't near the luxury tax threshold right now and/or isn't trying to win right now. Bloat your payroll with some dead or moribund weight for a few years, with the payoff coming later when the prospects the bad contract was attached to hit their prime. But that's nothing like the Red Sox' current situation. They're trying to win now, so any large contract liabilities they take on now should be highly productive in the short term (with an accepted, inevitable risk that the production nosedives down the line). Shouldn't they?