JDM

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tonyarmasjr

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At this point, I really just hope we don't see a situation where Martinez (or any other FA) does sit out and actually end up getting a big(ger) deal. That would turn MLB FA toward the type of farce the NFL has. I can't say I've researched it all, but I've never understand how players governed by a CBA get away with holding out the way they do. This would obviously be different, but it's not hard to imagine a situation where you have multiple significant FAs sitting out into the season every year if there's a realistic chance for them to increase earning. And that's only beneficial to the select few who capitalize on some team's desperation - certainly not to this selfish fan whose chief desire is simply to be entertained by on-field performance.
 

MikeM

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But with the opt out, JDM would be in next year's free agent class. I don't get why he would turn down 5/$125MM for 3/$90MM.
Guessing his market, and even the surrounding discussion here for that matter, might look a little different if anybody was actually viewing him as a decent/better possibility to repeat that 2017 season at the plate. Doing it for a second year in a row could/would go a long way there imo.

For starters though, 3/$90m next winter (he'd certainly do better then 3 with another big year) would leave him roughly pulling in Sox money over 4 years instead of 5.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Guessing his market, and even the surrounding discussion here for that matter, might look a little different if anybody was actually viewing him as a decent/better possibility to repeat that 2017 season at the plate. Doing it for a second year in a row could/would go a long way there imo.

For starters though, 3/$90m next winter (he'd certainly do better then 3 with another big year) would leave him roughly pulling in Sox money over 4 years instead of 5.
Let's assume he signs what amounts to a pillow contract (whether a one year deal or a longer one with an opt-out) and has a reasonably close repeat of his 2017 line at the plate. How much would it realistically increase his offers if he's also still the nil to negative value defensive outfielder he is now? Would it really increase his AAV from $25M (the reported offer he has "on the table") to $30M?

Additionally, while acknowledging that there are likely going to be more teams with less inhibitions about spending (room under the cap or greater willingness to exceed it), are there going to be significantly more openings for his services on those teams? And that's without considering the extra competition for those jobs from a bigger class of free agents. I guess what I'm asking is what teams that haven't pursued him this winter due to lack of a roster need or lack of funds (tax reasons in particular) will have a need or the available funds to pursue him next winter, even as a consolation prize for not signing Harper or Machado or Blackmon? His expected market this winter included a few teams that ultimately went in other directions that don't necessarily put them back in the market for him in 12 months.

I'm left wondering if trying to re-enter the free agent market next year really assures him of anything better than whatever he's turning his nose up at now, even if he has a monster 2018.
 

MikeM

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Let's assume he signs what amounts to a pillow contract (whether a one year deal or a longer one with an opt-out) and has a reasonably close repeat of his 2017 line at the plate. How much would it realistically increase his offers if he's also still the nil to negative value defensive outfielder he is now? Would it really increase his AAV from $25M (the reported offer he has "on the table") to $30M?
I think it might have big effect considering the potential premium offensive value difference a team might be willing to pay or sacrifice on a guy you are signing with a more reasonable expectation to immediately challenge Trout for the league best OPS while playing a questionable corner OF defense, and one with a projection similar to Steamer that has JDM regressing back to a .277/.350./545 with 33 HR batting line in 2018. With a surrounding aging/decline factor obviously being calculated in and on top of that in each case.

Push comes to shove I just can't fathom how Boras could actually follow through with a sit out strategy here. I mean there is simply zero chance he comes out a winner there. At least going the Cespedes route preserves some form of one, regardless of the deemed odds, and while saving a tiny bit of face in the process.
 

E5 Yaz

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https://nypost.com/2018/02/05/mets-pull-todd-frazier-out-of-free-agency-for-17m/

The above story indicates the players are beginning to accept the current market reality. Fangraphs median crowdsource estimated Frazier at $42M/3 yrs. He accepted $17/2.

That is a $25M discount from expected C/A.

JDM will see these data and face a decision....
If you think that top tier free agents such as Martinez, Arietta, Hosmer and the like are on the same tier as Todd Frazier, then you have a point.
 

snowmanny

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It depends how he looks at the data. For JDM a $25MM discount would be $185 Mill.
 

Hawk68

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It depends how he looks at the data. For JDM a $25MM discount would be $185 Mill.
Concur with you, and I also recognize E5 Yaz's position.

Another view is that Frazier received 40% of the Fangraphs median crowdsource value. That metric could put JDM into the $110M/5year * 0.40 = $44M total value.

That kind of discount seems too large for a hitter of JDM potential, but it does make Red Sox reputed $125M/5 year more attractive than it first seemed.
 

IpswichSox

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An additional risk for JDM with a pillow contract would be that he would have a compensation pick attached to him next year, assuming he wasn't traded mid-year and assuming he was offered a qualifying offer. That compensation pick would create a new drag on his value that he hasn't faced this year because of the mid-season trade from Detroit to Arizona.
 

In my lifetime

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I am still a little puzzled. If the 5/125 MM RS offer as reported is accurate, it doesn't make much sense to me that JDM hasn't signed. Ignoring talk of a slight market correction, just how much upside $ is there for JDM.

Here is a look at all the contracts in baseball history (courtesy of Cot's) equal or more than RS AAV offer as reported:

1. Zack Greinke, $34,416,666 (2016-21)
2. Miguel Cabrera, $31,000,000 (2016-23)
… David Price, $31,000,000 (2016-22)
4. Clayton Kershaw, $30,714,286 (2014-20)
5. Max Scherzer, $30,000,000 (2015-21)
6. Roger Clemens, $28,000,022 (2007)
7. Alex Rodriguez, $27,500,000 (2008-17)
… Yoenis Cespedes, $27,500,000 (2017-20)
9. Jon Lester, $25,833,333 (2015-20)
10. Justin Verlander, $25,714,286 (2013-19)
11. Alex Rodriguez, $25,200,000 (2001-10)
12. Ryan Howard, $25,000,000 (2012-16)
… Josh Hamilton, $25,000,000 (2013-17)
… Felix Hernandez, $25,000,000 (2013-19)
… Giancarlo Stanton, $25,000,000 (2015-27)
… Yoenis Cespedes, $25,000,000 (2016-18)
… Stephen Strasburg, $25,000,000 (2017-23)


Out of these 17 contracts, only 8 are to position players. So JDM's contract would be tied for 5th most in the history of baseball for a position player. In addition, looking at the 8 contracts, the majority are complete disasters for the signing team. It just makes me wonder if the 5/125 MM offer is not overstated. How much more is JDM realistically going to get this year? And to take a shorter term contract makes no sense considering his age and the outstanding year he just put up.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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Looking at those numbers, I would hope the Red Sox have both a 5/125 and a 2/55 on the table for JDM. Names like Ryan Howard and Josh Hamilton should be reminders of the enormous downside risk of relatively long-term big-money deals.

As if the current concern over Hanley’s vesting option didn’t make that point clearly enough.
 

edoug

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Carfado was just on MLB network and said (paraphrasing of course) he expects Martinez will probably sign with the Red Sox. He doesn't see him getting anywhere near the reported 5 yr./ 125-130 million dollar deal anywhere else. They may be just trying for the 6th year. It's been the longest courtship ever. About the current free agent situation, he agreed with Brandon Moss' assessment that the players agreed on things that they shouldn't have. Carfado added that Manford did a terrific job negotiating the last labor deal.
 

Pozo the Clown

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Carfado was just on MLB network and said (paraphrasing of course) he expects Martinez will probably sign with the Red Sox. He doesn't see him getting anywhere near the reported 5 yr./ 125-130 million dollar deal anywhere else. They may be just trying for the 6th year. It's been the longest courtship ever. About the current free agent situation, he agreed with Brandon Moss' assessment that the players agreed on things that they shouldn't have. Carfado added that Manford did a terrific job negotiating the last labor deal.
Earlier today, they interviewed Mike Hazen on the MLB Network. In response to an inquiry if the DBacks are still pursuing JDM, Hazen replied: "We're still actively involved in the outfield market." When further pressed if that meant JDM, he reiterated his prior response and added something to the effect of "that's all I can presently say." It stuck me more as a soft denial than as a roundabout confirmation. I tend to agree with Cafardo's assessment.
 

Spelunker

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Earlier today, they interviewed Mike Hazen on the MLB Network. In response to an inquiry if the DBacks are still pursuing JDM, Hazen replied: "We're still actively involved in the outfield market." When further pressed if that meant JDM, he reiterated his prior response and added something to the effect of "that's all I can presently say." It stuck me more as a soft denial than as a roundabout confirmation. I tend to agree with Cafardo's assessment.
I'm really sorry. :oops:
 

Hee Sox Choi

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Hmm... maybe things are getting closer?

According to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, free agent J.D. Martinez "is telling people that he is fed up with the Red Sox's inflexibility and would rather sign with another club."

Rosenthal notes that this might be a case of "posturing" on the part of Martinez and his agent Scott Boras, who have both become increasingly frustrated by the lack of action and high-dollar offers on the open market this winter. Boston is still believed to have made the most lucrative proposal to Martinez at five years, $125 million. The 30-year-old slugger began the offseason looking for something closer to seven years, $200 million after tallying 45 homers and 104 RBI in just 119 games last summer between the Tigers and Diamondbacks.
 

soxhop411

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He should only be pissed at boras. He sold him a bill of goods he could not cash.
 

chawson

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Hmm... maybe things are getting closer?

According to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, free agent J.D. Martinez "is telling people that he is fed up with the Red Sox's inflexibility and would rather sign with another club."
Fucked up if true.

If JDM doesn’t want to play for the Sox, cool. Trade Marrero, Johnson and Travis to the Tigers for Castellanos, V-Mart and Iglesias. You’ve got the next JDM for $32 million this year and $10 million next.
 

MikeM

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On the flip side to that, wouldn't the fact he's even in a position to be fed up with us indicate that Arizona isn't being very aggressive at all with their negotiations behind the scenes?

I mean all things being even remotely equal and taking off the homer hat, I'm guessing that he'd prefer to play there.
 

sketz

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He’s frustrated that the Sox won’t bid against themselves? Fine - sign elsewhere for less and put your money where your mouth is asshole.
 

mdipalma78

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According to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, free agent J.D. Martinez "is telling people that he is fed up with the Red Sox's inflexibility and would rather sign with another club."
Shouldn't he be pissed at the inflexibility of the other 29 teams that haven't made him a better offer?
 

Reverend

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At this point, I really just hope we don't see a situation where Martinez (or any other FA) does sit out and actually end up getting a big(ger) deal. That would turn MLB FA toward the type of farce the NFL has. I can't say I've researched it all, but I've never understand how players governed by a CBA get away with holding out the way they do. This would obviously be different, but it's not hard to imagine a situation where you have multiple significant FAs sitting out into the season every year if there's a realistic chance for them to increase earning. And that's only beneficial to the select few who capitalize on some team's desperation - certainly not to this selfish fan whose chief desire is simply to be entertained by on-field performance.
NFL contracts aren’t guaranteed like MLB ones are. Changes everything, so hopefully your fears may be assuaged.
 

Hawk68

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Hmm... maybe things are getting closer?

According to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, free agent J.D. Martinez "is telling people that he is fed up with the Red Sox's inflexibility and would rather sign with another club."

Rosenthal notes that this might be a case of "posturing" on the part of Martinez and his agent Scott Boras, who have both become increasingly frustrated by the lack of action and high-dollar offers on the open market this winter. Boston is still believed to have made the most lucrative proposal to Martinez at five years, $125 million. The 30-year-old slugger began the offseason looking for something closer to seven years, $200 million after tallying 45 homers and 104 RBI in just 119 games last summer between the Tigers and Diamondbacks.
This may be the opening the Red Sox need. This a sign of where JDM and his agent are, frustrated and willing to have the player name attached.

One Red Sox option is to make opt out(s) more attractive letting the player and his agent save face. This allows the Red Sox enjoy his best performance before too much value lost in decline and their internal options clarify their potential.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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This may be the opening the Red Sox need. This a sign of where JDM and his agent are, frustrated and willing to have the player name attached.

One Red Sox option is to make opt out(s) more attractive letting the player and his agent save face. This allows the Red Sox enjoy his best performance before too much value lost in decline and their internal options clarify their potential.
Oh boy, the "opt-out is beneficial to the team" argument is back!

There is no opening nor is one needed. They have an offer on the table. Reports indicate it is the best offer on the table. Until another offer surfaces that beats it, there is zero reason to alter or improve it. Either Martinez takes it, he takes a leser offer elsewhere, or he sits out. The Red Sox should not be acting desperate when they have the advantage.
 

moondog80

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There are 30 potential teams in the auction for his services, and he’s fed up with the highest bidder?
 

BaseballJones

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https://nypost.com/2018/02/05/mets-pull-todd-frazier-out-of-free-agency-for-17m/

The above story indicates the players are beginning to accept the current market reality. Fangraphs median crowdsource estimated Frazier at $42M/3 yrs. He accepted $17/2.

That is a $25M discount from expected C/A.

JDM will see these data and face a decision....
I wouldn't have minded Boston picking up Frazier for that contract. Play him at 2b until Pedey returns, and then he rotates with Pedey, Devers, and Moreland at 1b, or, if Hanley sucks at DH, he plays there. Plenty of HR power still at a pretty reasonable contract.

There are 30 potential teams in the auction for his services, and he’s fed up with the highest bidder?
Does Martinez have some sense of entitlement? That the Red Sox are somehow obligated to offer him more? Your point is fantastic - they appear to be the highest bidder - offering him more money than any other team in baseball, and instead of being frustrated at other teams for not making this more competitive, he's frustrated with the Red Sox? Makes no sense unless the answer to my first question in this paragraph is "yes".
 

Average Reds

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This may be the opening the Red Sox need. This a sign of where JDM and his agent are, frustrated and willing to have the player name attached.

One Red Sox option is to make opt out(s) more attractive letting the player and his agent save face. This allows the Red Sox enjoy his best performance before too much value lost in decline and their internal options clarify their potential.
This is foolish times two.

First, the quote attributed to JDM is obviously, laughably, false. I mean, you’re pissed that the Sox are inflexible, so you’re going to take a lessor deal elsewhere? OK.

Second, no matter how you want to dress up an opt-out, it’s a PLAYER option. It does not allow the Sox to do anything unless you are certain the player will use it. In which case you were better off just offering up a short contract to begin with.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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Hmm... maybe things are getting closer?

According to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, free agent J.D. Martinez "is telling people that he is fed up with the Red Sox's inflexibility and would rather sign with another club."

Rosenthal notes that this might be a case of "posturing" on the part of Martinez and his agent Scott Boras, who have both become increasingly frustrated by the lack of action and high-dollar offers on the open market this winter. Boston is still believed to have made the most lucrative proposal to Martinez at five years, $125 million. The 30-year-old slugger began the offseason looking for something closer to seven years, $200 million after tallying 45 homers and 104 RBI in just 119 games last summer between the Tigers and Diamondbacks.
This makes me think we'll see him signed by the Red Sox by the end of the week. MLBPA is starting to sound desperate. They have no real leverage here aside from a strike, and striking to get three or four players their mega deals is absolutely the wrong play. I think even Tony Clark realizes that.

A strike will have to be focused on things like a salary floor and bringing up minimum salaries or starting arbitration earlier. They aren't getting the owners to give up those first six years of control, so getting controlled players to more money might be the best they can do. I'd probably also try to get that loophole where players brought up in May don't trigger a year of control until the following season fixed as well.

Regardless, this isn't the time to strike, and this isn't the specific reason to strike, so all the union can do is bark. If players were willing to strike over these few guys not getting their mega deals, we'd be hearing plenty of talk of all players sitting out spring training by now. Instead, Clark's own statement says they will be reporting.

That statement by Clark is a last desperate attempt to squeeze a few more dollars or an extra year out of the teams holding fast on the top names still on the market. This statement, supposedly by Martinez, is him trying to apply why little leverage he has on the Sox to get them to blink.
 

OCD SS

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Does Martinez have some sense of entitlement? That the Red Sox are somehow obligated to offer him more? Your point is fantastic - they appear to be the highest bidder - offering him more money than any other team in baseball, and instead of being frustrated at other teams for not making this more competitive, he's frustrated with the Red Sox? Makes no sense unless the answer to my first question in this paragraph is "yes".
My sense is that the players are not looking at the market for their services as something that can fluctuate, especially when MLB's profits are going up. They see the contracts handed out before as a new set cost for the level of performance they're offering. It's obviously not true, but this is the view point that would lead to frustration on their part.

I would expect that this sort of viewpoint is reinforced by Boras and is not unique to JDM at all.
 

PrometheusWakefield

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This makes me think we'll see him signed by the Red Sox by the end of the week. MLBPA is starting to sound desperate. They have no real leverage here aside from a strike, and striking to get three or four players their mega deals is absolutely the wrong play. I think even Tony Clark realizes that.

A strike will have to be focused on things like a salary floor and bringing up minimum salaries or starting arbitration earlier. They aren't getting the owners to give up those first six years of control, so getting controlled players to more money might be the best they can do. I'd probably also try to get that loophole where players brought up in May don't trigger a year of control until the following season fixed as well.

Regardless, this isn't the time to strike, and this isn't the specific reason to strike, so all the union can do is bark. If players were willing to strike over these few guys not getting their mega deals, we'd be hearing plenty of talk of all players sitting out spring training by now. Instead, Clark's own statement says they will be reporting.

That statement by Clark is a last desperate attempt to squeeze a few more dollars or an extra year out of the teams holding fast on the top names still on the market. This statement, supposedly by Martinez, is him trying to apply why little leverage he has on the Sox to get them to blink.
Every player under 25 should wildcat. The MLBPA barely pretends to represent them.
 

Pozo the Clown

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There are 30 potential teams in the auction for his services, and he’s fed up with the highest bidder?
In the referenced article from The Athletic, Rosenthal writes: "Perhaps Martinez is simply posturing. It’s difficult to imagine why he would be upset with a team reportedly willing to give him a nine-figure deal."

Or, perhaps JDM has spent the offseason memorizing the "Boras Binder of Biblically Blinding Bullshit" (TM) that favorably compares his last few seasons to the greatest seasons of Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, etc. and draws the conclusion that anything less than 7 years/$210M is akin to indentured servititude.
 
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Minneapolis Millers

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In the MLBTradeRumors summary of Drellich's and Rosenthal's reports, they also quote DD as saying this:

"Beyond the lack of competition for Martinez on the free-agent market, Dombrowski also suggested that the trade market could yet be a viable approach. The veteran exec called it “amazing” to be hearing of so many players available in trade talks at this juncture of the offseason.
“At this time of year, you normally don’t get phone calls out of the blue about such-and-such being available,” said Dombrowski. “I have. I don’t know what’s going to go on.”"

This is interesting. I wonder if there is any specific trade that DD is considering as a JDM alternative. We've speculated elsewhere about Domingo Santana. Are there rumors of other, bigger (and cheaper-than-JDM) bats being available by trade?
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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In the MLBTradeRumors summary of Drellich's and Rosenthal's reports, they also quote DD as saying this:

"Beyond the lack of competition for Martinez on the free-agent market, Dombrowski also suggested that the trade market could yet be a viable approach. The veteran exec called it “amazing” to be hearing of so many players available in trade talks at this juncture of the offseason.
“At this time of year, you normally don’t get phone calls out of the blue about such-and-such being available,” said Dombrowski. “I have. I don’t know what’s going to go on.”"

This is interesting. I wonder if there is any specific trade that DD is considering as a JDM alternative. We've speculated elsewhere about Domingo Santana. Are there rumors of other, bigger (and cheaper-than-JDM) bats being available by trade?
I'd put as much stock into this as I do JD's threat to sign for a lesser offer. It's all just attempts to gain leverage, IMO.

He is managing to make me not want him on the team.
Making sausage is certainly not pretty.
 

chawson

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I’m sure it’s leverage, but I absolutely think DD could have a Miggy trade in his hip pocket.
Totally, this. The Tigers have two near-elite hitters playing the field who need to transition to DH, which is occupied. There is surely some combination of contracts we could assume that would get us Miggy or Castellanos for far less than $125M.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
Totally, this. The Tigers have two near-elite hitters playing the field who need to transition to DH, which is occupied. There is surely some combination of contracts we could assume that would get us Miggy or Castellanos for far less than $125M.
Considering that Miggy is owed $184M for the next six years, "far less than $125M" suggests one whale of a subsidy. Never mind the question of whether he's really an elite hitter anymore, and if so, how long he's likely to remain one.

You don't willingly buy into the six-year, nine-figure contract of a 35-year-old who just had a replacement-level season. You just don't.
 

chawson

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Considering that Miggy is owed $184M for the next six years, "far less than $125M" suggests one whale of a subsidy. Never mind the question of whether he's really an elite hitter anymore, and if so, how long he's likely to remain one.

You don't willingly buy into the six-year, nine-figure contract of a 35-year-old who just had a replacement-level season. You just don't.
Sorry to rehash this argument because it’s literally three months old and nothing’s changed since.

A theoretical scenario I’d consider is sending Hanley for Miggy while the Tigers cover half. They still save a ton of money, and we’d get Cabrera at 6/$92, minus the $22M for Hanley.

Not trying to argue for it here, but my point was that there are surely targets via trade, maybe complicated ones (like DD’s Fielder/Kinsler swindle), that would work as Plan Bs.
 

Hawk68

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Oh boy, the "opt-out is beneficial to the team" argument is back!

There is no opening nor is one needed. They have an offer on the table. Reports indicate it is the best offer on the table. Until another offer surfaces that beats it, there is zero reason to alter or improve it. Either Martinez takes it, he takes a leser offer elsewhere, or he sits out. The Red Sox should not be acting desperate when they have the advantage.
I agree with the spirit of your post, but I ask you consider the advantage as I suggested it.

Opt out(s) provide the player flexibility. It also provides the team a way to close the deal and potentially retain the player only during his presumably most productive (youngest) seasons without adding years or money.
 

Hawk68

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This is foolish times two.

First, the quote attributed to JDM is obviously, laughably, false. I mean, you’re pissed that the Sox are inflexible, so you’re going to take a lessor deal elsewhere? OK.

Second, no matter how you want to dress up an opt-out, it’s a PLAYER option. It does not allow the Sox to do anything unless you are certain the player will use it. In which case you were better off just offering up a short contract to begin with.
Sir,
You seem to believe that you can determine that sourced quotes are false.

You also appear not to be an experienced negotiator if you cannot recognize the potential cost and benefit of any additional terms or conditions in a contract.

What do you want me to say?

Respectfully,
Hawk
 

grimshaw

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I think JDM just wants a formal offer from a another team no matter what the terms are, so he can create some kind of hand hold.

While I doubt he was realistically expecting to get 210 million, I'll bet he was thinking 150 was an absolute worst case scenario.

I don't feel sorry for Martinez, but his agent has really f'ed this thing up.
 

moondog80

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I think JDM just wants a formal offer from a another team no matter what the terms are, so he can create some kind of hand hold.

While I doubt he was realistically expecting to get 210 million, I'll bet he was thinking 150 was an absolute worst case scenario.

I don't feel sorry for Martinez, but his agent has really f'ed this thing up.
I don't think Boras screwed anything up, in the sense that it's not like he'd be getting better offers with another agent. It's just a tough market. Unless you mean that he put unrealistic expectations in JDM's head?
 

DisgruntledSoxFan77

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I don't feel sorry for Martinez, but his agent has really f'ed this thing up.
Let's not forget Boras wasn't even his agent at this time last year. JD made the decision to switch agents on the eve of free agency, so in my mind he deserves this slap in the face he's being given
 

grimshaw

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I don't think Boras screwed anything up, in the sense that it's not like he'd be getting better offers with another agent. It's just a tough market. Unless you mean that he put unrealistic expectations in JDM's head?
99% the latter, though I do think dealing with Boras closes doors for certain teams who balk at his initial asking prices and move on to plan B.
 
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