JD Powerless and Associates

The Gray Eagle

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Aug 1, 2001
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This team has had a huge dropoff in home runs this year.

(There are still a few games left, so obviously these numbers aren't quite full season yet, but pretty close.)

Last year, we hit 219 home runs.
This year, 148 so far, a drop of 71, down 32% compared to last year.

Home runs are down across baseball. But last year we ranked 10th in MLB with 219 home runs (which was only 3 HRs less than the #6 team) and dropped to 20th this year (only 1 ahead of #21 SD, 4 ahead of #22 White Sox.)

Last year, the average per team was 198 home runs, so the Red Sox were 21 home runs above the average. (11% above)
This year, the average is down to 166 per team, meaning the Red Sox are 18 home runs below the average. (11% below)
Source: https://www.baseball-almanac.com/hitting/hihr6.shtml

We've fallen off in a big way both home and road, and against both LHP and RHP.

2021: 108 home runs at Fenway, 111 on the road.
2022: 80 at Fenway, 68 on the road.
Change: -28 at home, down 26%.
-43 on the road, down 39%.

2021: 150 home runs vs. RHP, 69 vs. LHP
2022: 110 home runs vs. RHP, 38 vs. LHP
Change: -40 vs. RHP, down 27%.
-31 vs. LHP, down 45%.

Key individuals:

Dalbec: 25 HR last year, 11 this year: -14, down 56%
Xander: 23 last year, 14 this year: -9, down 39%
Devers: 38 last year, 27 this year: -11, down 29%
Verdugo: 13 last year, 10 this year: -3, down 23%
Kike: 20 last year, 6 this year: -14, down 70%
JD: 28 last year, 13 this year: -15, down 54%

Total for these 6 hitters: 147 last year, 81 this year: -66, down 45%

Key hitters here only one of these years: Story's been hurt a lot but he's hit 16 this year, compared to 24 last year. Renfroe hit 31 last year, 28 this year.

This huge power outage stinks and it sucks. Why did this happen to basically every important hitter on the team?
 

brandonchristensen

Loves Aaron Judge
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Feb 4, 2012
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To be fair we replaced our power right field with someone who had zero.

And our SS and DH lost all their power. That contributes to a majority of it.
 

streeter88

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Apr 2, 2006
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What is the split pre- and post- ASB?

I haven't looked at that specifically, but for OPS only Verdugo went up. Xander up slightly, but Devers' and JD's OPS dropped over 200 points each.
 

streeter88

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Apr 2, 2006
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Great that JD is pacing the league in doubles, but he's clearly not hitting much of anything else as his OPS has dropped from .849 pre-ASB to .649 since. That's on par with Dalbec, and worse than Devers who is scorching it at .692 post ASB.

Only Verdugo (.821) and Bogaerts (.833) are >.800 since the ASB. Numbers from before tonight's slugfest (JD and Devers with 2B, and Verdugo HR).

EDIT: HRs since ASB including tonight: Bogaerts 7, Devers and Verdugo 5 each, JD and Dalbec 4 each.
 

Tony Pena's Gas Cloud

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Jun 12, 2019
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Cratered is a polite word for what JD has done. Since June 1 he has the fifth lowest WAR in the AL among players with 200+ plate appearances, behind such guys as Max Stassi, Spencer Torkelson, and Harold Castro. Yet Cora continues to hit him fifth because...???
 

Apisith

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Oct 19, 2007
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Great that JD is pacing the league in doubles, but he's clearly not hitting much of anything else as his OPS has dropped from .849 pre-ASB to .649 since. That's on par with Dalbec, and worse than Devers who is scorching it at .692 post ASB.

Only Verdugo (.821) and Bogaerts (.833) are >.800 since the ASB. Numbers from before tonight's slugfest (JD and Devers with 2B, and Verdugo HR).

EDIT: HRs since ASB including tonight: Bogaerts 7, Devers and Verdugo 5 each, JD and Dalbec 4 each.
Casas has 5 already, which is both exciting and hilarious.
 

joe dokes

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Jul 18, 2005
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JD got old. Devers got hurt. Hernandez missed half the season. Not sure about X.
 

DJnVa

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Dec 16, 2010
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Cratered is a polite word for what JD has done. Since June 1 he has the fifth lowest WAR in the AL among players with 200+ plate appearances, behind such guys as Max Stassi, Spencer Torkelson, and Harold Castro. Yet Cora continues to hit him fifth because...???
Because it's a lost season and it really doesn't matter?
 

shaggydog2000

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Apr 5, 2007
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Because it's a lost season and it really doesn't matter?
And who would the other options be any way? JD has a better chance of recovering some level of performance over the last half than just about any of players you could sub in for him.
 

Ganthem

a ray of sunshine
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Apr 7, 2022
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This seems to be an issue dating back to last season. The Sox offense last season seemed to run in extremes. There were either red hot and scoring a bunch of runs or ice cold. There was no middle ground. When the season started the offense was in one of its cold phases. I believe it was Eck who mentioned that after June the offense and the pitching just couldn't sync up. When the pitching was going good the offense went cold and vice versa. The question is how does Bloom build a more consistent offense. I think they need to pivot away from the swing at everything approach that was installed a few years back and try to find players that will grind out at bats.
 

jwbasham84

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Jul 26, 2022
43
South Bend, IN
And who would the other options be any way? JD has a better chance of recovering some level of performance over the last half than just about any of players you could sub in for him.
The season is lost and has been for some time. It would have been nice to get Valdez up for a cup of coffee to see if his AAA hitting success translates to the MLB. Even if it didn't, he would be gaining valuable experience and we could learn a little of what we have in him. All we have done instead is further confirm that JD is cooked.
 

shaggydog2000

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Apr 5, 2007
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The season is lost and has been for some time. It would have been nice to get Valdez up for a cup of coffee to see if his AAA hitting success translates to the MLB. Even if it didn't, he would be gaining valuable experience and we could learn a little of what we have in him. All we have done instead is further confirm that JD is cooked.
This Valdez?

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/enmanuel-valdez/sa917288/stats?position=2B/3B

The one with no position who has been a below average hitter in Worcester?

They still have to be competitive, or the playing experience isn't going to help the younger players develop. JD is probably completely cooked. Like a steak you forgot about on the grill while you all of a sudden remembered there was something else you needed to do. But I wouldn't be surprised if he had a dead cat bounce and had a good week or two of performance. That happens all the time to players who look completely done. Because his true talent level has most likely dropped immensely from his peak, but he's probably still above the level he's been playing at in the second half.
 

ElcaballitoMVP

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Nov 19, 2008
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JD got old. Devers got hurt. Hernandez missed half the season. Not sure about X.
Don't forget Story being hurt too.

For next year we should see improved HR numbers from DH (someone like Abreu or Mancini, assuming they don't resign JD to a 1 year deal), 1B (Casas), 2B (a healthy Story), 3B (a healthy Devers), maybe SS (a resigned X or one of the top free agents) and CF (a healthy Hernandez). Too soon to know about C, LF and RF. But that's 6 spots in the lineup that should provide better HR numbers, 7 if you bring in someone like Gallo for RF.
 

Philip Jeff Frye

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Oct 23, 2001
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Don't forget Story being hurt too.

For next year we should see improved HR numbers from DH (someone like Abreu or Mancini, assuming they don't resign JD to a 1 year deal), 1B (Casas), 2B (a healthy Story), 3B (a healthy Devers), maybe SS (a resigned X or one of the top free agents) and CF (a healthy Hernandez). Too soon to know about C, LF and RF. But that's 6 spots in the lineup that should provide better HR numbers, 7 if you bring in someone like Gallo for RF.
It's very easy to say "everybody will be healthy next year so these numbers will be better" but reality doesn't work that way. Maybe the 2023 Sox are unusually lucky with regard to health, but somebody important will probably be hurt for some of the season. With so much offensive deadwood in the lineup this year, the team had no margin for error with regard to health. We can't make that mistake again next year.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Mar 11, 2007
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This seems to be an issue dating back to last season. The Sox offense last season seemed to run in extremes. There were either red hot and scoring a bunch of runs or ice cold. There was no middle ground. When the season started the offense was in one of its cold phases. I believe it was Eck who mentioned that after June the offense and the pitching just couldn't sync up. When the pitching was going good the offense went cold and vice versa. The question is how does Bloom build a more consistent offense. I think they need to pivot away from the swing at everything approach that was installed a few years back and try to find players that will grind out at bats.
Casas (based on mL numbers and his short ML experience) looks to be that guy and it's one of the things that Schwarber helped with after he came on. I just can't understand why it seems to be an All or Nothing approach. I guess the statistics will provide evidence that the Three True Outcome approach is the best way to avoid getting outs, but with the shift going away, just slapping singles will likely be a great way to generate runs and possible speedy guys (Hamilton? Duran?) may end up providing more value if they can just get on base. Perhaps target guys that put the ball in play more often, as we could maybe see another Rod Carew type that hits for low power but can sling fast grounders and line drives through the infield holes. Those speedy guys on first can go all the way to third with a conservative lead
 

Cesar Crespo

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Dec 22, 2002
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It's the 2nd time in 7 years where the power just vanished. Of course, the first time it happened the team still won 90 plus and the following year won the WS when the offense rebounded.

That team was also considerably younger.
 

ElcaballitoMVP

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It's very easy to say "everybody will be healthy next year so these numbers will be better" but reality doesn't work that way. Maybe the 2023 Sox are unusually lucky with regard to health, but somebody important will probably be hurt for some of the season. With so much offensive deadwood in the lineup this year, the team had no margin for error with regard to health. We can't make that mistake again next year.
Yeah, for sure. There are always going to be injuries. And I agree we can't make the mistake of having so much deadwood again next year. If X returns, there may not be much of a difference there. But Casas fulltime, Abreu/Mancini at DH, Gallo in RF help eliminate much of the offensive deadwood you mention. A healthy Story and Hernandez do as well. That's 5 spots that should improve offensively. Obviously, if they all get hurt we'll be back where we are today, but that would be terrible luck that really no team could overcome. And Refsnyder and Arroyo are around for depth to give them 2 competent options in the IF and OF that should be able to hit well enough in case of an injury to one of the starters.
 

jon abbey

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Jul 15, 2005
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Gallo has struck out 448 times in 1027 ABs since 2020 and basically all of his power is to RF. He is a very good defensive player, but you really cannot count on him for an offensive upgrade, no matter how low the bar.
 

lexrageorge

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Jul 31, 2007
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Gallo has struck out 448 times in 1027 ABs since 2020 and basically all of his power is to RF. He is a very good defensive player, but you really cannot count on him for an offensive upgrade, no matter how low the bar.
He is also entering his decline years.
 

Rovin Romine

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It's very easy to say "everybody will be healthy next year so these numbers will be better" but reality doesn't work that way.
It does work that way.

The 2022 Sox were unusually unlucky in regards to injuries. That could happen again. But an averagely healthy 2022 Sox team would have been a contender.

Your point about a couple of offensive black holes stands, but adding a healthy Renfroe in RF for the whole season wouldn't have changed the path of the club - injuries to Hernandez, Devers, and Story most notably, along with Dalbec's implosion not being mitigated in part because Casas was also down for two months. Throw in a pitching staff of AAA starters due to injury and there you have it.
 

NDame616

will bailey
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Jul 31, 2006
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Yes the team stunk this year and it has to be a slog to get up and do it everyday, but this is probably his last crack at a multi year contract and falling off a cliff costs him tens of millions of dollars (especially now that every team needs a DH). So he should've been VERY motivated to play well

He's been in a stead decline since 2018. If he played well this year he would be looking at a sizeable contract. Now, he may not even be worth a QO.
 

ElcaballitoMVP

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LOL, yeah, I'm wishing a bit there. Doesn't have to be Gallo, but an upgrade from what the Sox had for most of the season in RF shouldn't be all that difficult to find, whether it's someone like Gallo, or Nimmo, or a guy on the trade market.