I don't understand the meaning of Sale and Price's run support. A pitcher has zero control over that; it's 100% random. The team as a whole scored 25 more runs in 2019 than 2018, good for 4th in the AL (they were first in 2018). And the gap between 4th and 5th was larger than the gap between 1st and 4th.
I think that if this is how it goes, JD is going to be staying in the Stephen Drew/Craig Kimbrel suite until mid-summer. Maybe he doesn't care, but he will still be foregoing half a season"s salary.
Pitcher's won/loss record is not meaningless. It ties quite closely to the team's record in the games that the pitcher started. If you're interested in how the Red Sox lost 24 more games than they did last year, checking out the RS/RA in games for individual pitchers tells part of the story.
The only relevance is that it explains why the Sox were:
I only brought up run support versus runs allowed because the poster I was responding to suggested that having the two pitchers back on 2018 form wouldn't matter if the offense dipped as a result of JDM opting out. The point I was trying to make was that the 2018 versions of those pitchers may have benefited from the high powered offense, but weren't reliant on it to give the team a chance to win games. So a return to form should be a net positive for the team regardless of the offense's firepower.
I think you misunderstood me. I wasn't saying that this is what JD would sign for - I was saying that as long as he thinks he gets at least this much as a FA, he will opt out. If Boras doesn't think he'll get at least 4/80+, then he will opt in for at least another year on his current deal with the Sox.
Yeah, I was kind of saying the latter. In other words, I think we're disagreeing! I think the safety net of having the two years after next year for another almost $38 million if he needs it makes a one year gamble next year more palatable, so that I think if he thinks 4/84 is a reasonably probable result of going to free agency now, he probably stays. But you have convinced me that my guess of 4/95 was maybe too high. We'll never know and I'm probably just wasting everyone's time to play the guessing game about "what does he need to think he might get to leave." So, just a small point. I'm leaning toward thinking that he's going to stay. I'm almost always wrong though . . . .
So sorry, it's not my money, but the Boston fan base pays top dollar (directly and indirectly) for a championship-ready team. 2019 saw a really good lineup that generally featured 8 home-grown players and now there's talk of not being able to afford 2 of the best. Yes, I'm not addressing pitching because my brain can only work one track at a time, but I find it hard to reconcile long term cost impacts for a sport that's constantly growing in revenue and a team whose value grows every year.
They're two different lines, though. The $248M line (next season) is what you're talking about, and that indeed does have a baseball impact. But BOS is talking about trying to get under the lowest line, $208M (next year), and that has no direct baseball impact, it is solely about spending less money (and would also infuriate me if I were a Sox fan at this point in their cycle).
This absolutely infuriates me. I get it, John Henry doesn't want to lose money. I totally understand that and that's his prerogative. And if he doesn't really want to lose money, then he can sell the team now and make another $3 billion. I am very happy that under his stewardship the Boston Red Sox won four world champions, but if John Henry would rather save $40 million, then he should go do something else. Does this make me an irrational fan? Maybe. Does this paint me as ungrateful? Probably.
Ok fair point. Then yeah, losing Mookie because billionaires don't want to lose a few more million is pretty tough to take as a Sox fan, especially when they absolutely can compete for a championship for the next few years.
Honestly even if the strategy for a while had been "we need to get under the tax threshold in Year [X]" I could maybe live with it, despite your statements above being entirely right. What is really infuriating (as jon abbey notes) is that they splurged on an utterly unnecessary extension for Chris Sale last offseason only to then come back this year and complain about payroll, which makes absolutely no sense.
I think it's more of a sign to Boras/JDM that if he opts out, they won't be resigning him.
I'm sure if they trade Mookie Betts this off season and win the WS next year, you won't watch a single game. Winning cures everything.
Right. And if you believe what Henry said at the same press conference when he talked about how he DD didn't have the same philosophy on budget, then why would he let him spend to sign Eovaldi and Pearce, not to mention Sale. Especially since Henry is supposed to be able to see the future of the marketplace and had a pretty strict rule about signing pitchers who are on the other side of 30 to long-term, long cash deals.
Sox Revenue didn't meet expecations? The looming recession? Yankee jealousy?
Looming recession? Unemployment just dropped to 3.5 percent and the previous two months of jobs numbers were revised up. There was a 300.billion increase in federal spending in the last budget deal. Interest rates falling is boosting home sales. The high employment numbers mean state budgets are flush and their spending will increase. The government is going to hire hundreds of thousands of people to work on the 2020 census, further tightening labor markets. Trade deals with Mexico, Canada, and now Japan if Congress does the right thing.
I think it is posturing. Or more like negotiating in the press. The money will be there if the deal is right.
Elvis Andrus had a 78 OPS+ and 1.9 WAR last year. Boras or no, I don't see how him taking a guaranteed $43 M has anything to do with JD Martinez.
Is it already the time of year when we have the Boras discussion about the myth that he always takes his guys to FAs again?
Climate change.
As Manram suggested, I think it's simply an indication that Andrus is a fringe-average, declining player who's unlikely to find a better deal on the open market than the one he's got.
He played 146 games and came to the plate 657 times. Hard to paint that as a harbinger of durability issues.
So, presumably tomorrow (five days) or Wednesday (five business days)?
It's tomorrow, not sure when in the day exactly, maybe midnight.
Are these run support numbers calculated per start or just for the innings Price or Sale were actually in the game?
The pick you get now in these situations is dependent on whether you received revenue sharing and where you are in terms of the luxury tax, so I believe that the Sox, like the Yankees, only get a pick after the 4th round of the draft in these situations this winter. They'll still extend the QO to JDM if he opts out since there is zero chance he takes it, but it's not a first round pick coming back anymore.
There will be a new CBA with new rules by the time Cole is ready to opt out again.
Well the issue... I think... is that JDM opts out, we keep Mookie for at least until the trade deadline (or the end of the season) and then we lose out on him too.
