JD and the opt out

geoduck no quahog

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Are the Yankees going to merge him and Stanton into one wildly overpaid, limited player?
Not to be argumentative - because I'm not so well versed in the Yankee financial structure - but wouldn't he be replacing Encanarcion? I get that they rejected the $20M option, but there's a big difference between him and Martinez in that lineup.

As for Stanton, I guess the assumption is that his health relegates him to DH?
 

teddywingman

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If they use the JD savings to resign Mookie, they will have a replacement level player at DH. I don't recall anyone wanting to let Ortiz walk so that the Sox could use the savings to go after a big free agent deal.
I don't even know where to start with this post. Somehow you managed to make 3 wrong points in 2 sentences.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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They don't need to trade Sale/Price/Eovaldi for another pitcher, the other pitcher can be acquired by other means.
My argument still applies as far as the Red Sox are concerned. They're not going to replace those pitchers' production with a cheaper alternative if those guys are healthy. I'm not all that comfortable with the idea of trading David Price, subsidizing a portion of his salary because he's presently damaged goods, and having him put together a healthy season resembling his 2018 campaign while the cheaper alternative, however he's acquired, fails to match what Price does. Especially if the idea is the team is not going to take a step back from being real contenders in the division.
 
Jul 5, 2018
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I don't even know where to start with this post. Somehow you managed to make 3 wrong points in 2 sentences.
I don't follow your comment. Many posters want JD to opt-out to free up some money for Mookie. If that happens they will have a gaping hole at DH. JD's abilities are comparable to those of Ortiz and the Sox did well by paying top dollar to Ortiz.
 

gkelly53

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Ortiz never received more than 16 million in a season. And I believe it was his final season. Hardly top dollar...
 
Jul 5, 2018
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Ortiz never received more than 16 million in a season. And I believe it was his final season. Hardly top dollar...
$16M for a 40-year old is comparable. JD's contract is close to market so him deciding to opt-out doesn't help out the team financially. Depending on how they want to allocate the savings, they could spend it all on Mookie or a significant portion on a replacement DH.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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$16M for a 40-year old is comparable. JD's contract is close to market so him deciding to opt-out doesn't help out the team financially. Depending on how they want to allocate the savings, they could spend it all on Mookie or a significant portion on a replacement DH.
Or instead of signing/acquiring a replacement DH at all, sign or acquire a player who adds value at the plate and in the field, then use the DH spot to rotate players. They might realize a net gain over having a DH who adds no defensive value (or in Martinez's case, negative defensive value)
 

NomarsFool

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David Ortiz is of course a special player in Boston Red Sox history.

That said, all things being equal, I believe that many if not most people believe that you should spend the most money on your high skill positions (pitching, defense up the middle) rather than the lower skill positions (DH). No team's budget is infinite, and you're better off having elite pitchers than elite DHs - especially since pitchers have a much bigger single handed impact on a game.

I don't remember the specific details, but I believe when the Sox most recently signed JDM, the offense was a bigger questionmark than it is today. A number of players have since improved a great deal - so if you have to "Rob Peter to pay Paul" - I'd rather take something away from the offense than say, the pitching.
 
Jul 5, 2018
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Or instead of signing/acquiring a replacement DH at all, sign or acquire a player who adds value at the plate and in the field, then use the DH spot to rotate players. They might realize a net gain over having a DH who adds no defensive value (or in Martinez's case, negative defensive value)
Yeah, I've contemplated having four good outfielders rotating through the DH. With the Sox, you have Devers, X, Betts (next year) and Ben10, all of whom are young enough to play everyday. Why would you want to park any of them at DH to get someone like Holt in the line-up?
 

Green Monster

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Or instead of signing/acquiring a replacement DH at all, sign or acquire a player who adds value at the plate and in the field, then use the DH spot to rotate players. They might realize a net gain over having a DH who adds no defensive value (or in Martinez's case, negative defensive value)
Perhaps someone like Eric Thames. He just became a FA earlier today. 1B/OF who would seem to offer some flexibility. Reasonable defender at 1B and a bit less than reasonable in the OF. Might be a nice platoon option with Chavis at 1B with DH mixed in. 25hr, 61rbi, .851ops last season (primarily against RHP)
 

Martin and Woods

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Perhaps someone like Eric Thames. He just became a FA earlier today. 1B/OF who would seem to offer some flexibility. Reasonable defender at 1B and a bit less than reasonable in the OF. Might be a nice platoon option with Chavis at 1B with DH mixed in. 25hr, 61rbi, .851ops last season (primarily against RHP)
Ha, I was coming here to post exactly this thought about Thames (just saw the news at mlbtraderumors), but you beat me to it. Corey Dickerson is another FA name that comes to mind. Good lefty bat for the outfield/DH mix should they trade Bradley. He'll be coming off a broken foot, so health could be an issue while possibly lowering the price tag.
 

jon abbey

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Sorry I am just seeing this, but there is no chance the Yankees are signing JD Martinez. They have a line of guys waiting for DH ABs to open up already, Stanton, Andujar, Mike Ford (.909 OPS this season), Sanchez if they get a better catcher to pair him with, even Clint Frazier.

Are the Yankees going to merge him and Stanton into one wildly overpaid, limited player?
I know this was at least partly a joke, but JDM and Stanton shouldn't be lumped together defensively. Stanton's defensive metrics have been great the last few years, he has mostly DHd for NY just because they have other OFs who are even better defensively, Judge and Tauchman were both stellar this year and Gardner is always very solid.
 

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

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Sorry I am just seeing this, but there is no chance the Yankees are signing JD Martinez. They have a line of guys waiting for DH ABs to open up already, Stanton, Andujar, Mike Ford (.909 OPS this season), Sanchez if they get a better catcher to pair him with, even Clint Frazier.



I know this was at least partly a joke, but JDM and Stanton shouldn't be lumped together defensively. Stanton's defensive metrics have been great the last few years, he has mostly DHd for NY just because they have other OFs who are even better defensively, Judge and Tauchman were both stellar this year and Gardner is always very solid.
I'm lumping them together because it is my guess that, for whatever reason, Stanton will be playing a lot of DH going forward. And JD will be playing a lot of DH going forward. And, in my opinion, they'd be relatively redundant for a team like the Yankees, and a very poor use of their money.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Yeah, I've contemplated having four good outfielders rotating through the DH. With the Sox, you have Devers, X, Betts (next year) and Ben10, all of whom are young enough to play everyday. Why would you want to park any of them at DH to get someone like Holt in the line-up?
No one is "parked" at DH and who said anything about Holt? Frankly if he comes back (and I'd like to think he will), he's more likely to be the strong-side of a 2B platoon than a jack-of-all-trades guy moving around the field.

The others that followed have the idea I was going for. Add one or two guys along the lines of Eric Thames who can move around the field a bit (or facilitate others like Chavis to move around), and rotate guys through the DH spot. Even though they're still young and spry, it can't hurt guys like Betts and Devers to have a game every week or two where they're off their feet except for 4-5 PAs. Beats sitting them entirely. Ideally, the guy who ends up taking the DH slot on the B-Ref roster listing is going to get 70 games there rather than 110+.
 

SoxJox

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I know little about these things so I'll demonstrate my ignorance with this question: before the deadline arrives, could JD agree to an extension and restructured contract that benefits him more in the longer term?
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I know little about these things so I'll demonstrate my ignorance with this question: before the deadline arrives, could JD agree to an extension and restructured contract that benefits him more in the longer term?
Yes. Contracts are always negotiable, but the Red Sox really have no incentive to do that. He's only going to opt-out if he thinks he can get a better deal by doing so. Why would he negotiate to give up that opt-out unless the Red Sox were offering to pay him more? The deal he's on now is very likely the cheapest the Sox can get him.
 

SoxJox

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But in the potential restructure, is it conceivable that the Red Sox could offer him more, and not seek the least expensive path? I guess the calculation is that JD was considered to be worth his original contract value. Could his relative value have increased to some level beyond what the Red Sox would have considered acceptable when they first signed him?
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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But in the potential restructure, is it conceivable that the Red Sox could offer him more, and not seek the least expensive path? I guess the calculation is that JD was considered to be worth his original contract value. Could his relative value have increased to some level beyond what the Red Sox would have considered acceptable when they first signed him?
Sure, but why does he need to renegotiate with the Red Sox now? If he thinks he's worth more, and can get more, I'm sure the Red Sox are one of the teams he'll want to talk to when he's a free agent.

The one part of all this that is unclear to me is to what extent is Boras required to be acting in the dark during this period. I'm sure there have been some innuendo type conversations here and there, but I doubt that Boras has been able to go into full blown sell mode, and I doubt that competing G.M.s have been willing to have freewheeling negotiation type conversations with him. (Unless the Red Sox have given permission, which I expect we would have heard about if it happened.)

So, that adds a level of uncertainty for JD, in that he has to guess what his market will be. That's the only thing the Sox have going for him that might make them want to try to enter into an extension with him now. But otherwise, even if you really like the player, it doesn't make sense for the Red Sox to do it now. Let's say they value him right now at 4/90. (Just saying for argument, the numbers don't matter to the point.) At this point, maybe he elects not to opt out, and you've won. And even if he opts out, you still can offer him 4/90 after he does so and see if it gets it done. The only circumstance in which making the offer now doesn't backfire is if it prevents him from opting out and you could have saved a few pennies.

I guess the other thing that extending him now does is that it locks him up without you having to worry about opt outs the next two years. But, I think the Sox are in pretty good position right now. They may get a very good hitter for 3/63 and if they don't, they have $63 million to spend over the next 3 years to improve, whether by putting that same amount toward a new JD contract or something else.
 
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No one is "parked" at DH and who said anything about Holt? Frankly if he comes back (and I'd like to think he will), he's more likely to be the strong-side of a 2B platoon than a jack-of-all-trades guy moving around the field.

The others that followed have the idea I was going for. Add one or two guys along the lines of Eric Thames who can move around the field a bit (or facilitate others like Chavis to move around), and rotate guys through the DH spot. Even though they're still young and spry, it can't hurt guys like Betts and Devers to have a game every week or two where they're off their feet except for 4-5 PAs. Beats sitting them entirely. Ideally, the guy who ends up taking the DH slot on the B-Ref roster listing is going to get 70 games there rather than 110+.
If the Sox don't have a full-time DH it means that a mediocre player will need to replace the position player that takes a semi-day off at DH.

The Sox can take the DH by committee approach, but they have had a stud there every year since 2003.
 

jon abbey

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Yeah, that's what I expected, he'll opt out next winter if he has another killer season. 2/39 is a lot easier to top for a DH than 3/63.
 

mauidano

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:banana:

And of course we get to do this again after next season. But until then...everyone is happy!
 
Jul 5, 2018
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Not gonna happen anytime soon. He's gonna end up a Sox for career. Can't let this one leave.
By hitting the free agent market, Betts has made it clear that he considers it to be a business decision. Most players have done the same thing and the Sox have the right to view it the same way and not necessarily be the high bidder.

Nomar was my all-time favorite MLB player, but life continued after he left.
 

Ale Xander

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As long as Mookie stays long term, Devers is NOT traded (and Bogey is NOT traded), I'm happy with this.

Hope JDM not opting-out doesn't make it more diffficult to keep Mookie
 

Sam Ray Not

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Good news, I guess, so long as it doesn't increase the odds of losing Mookie even a fraction.

Part of me was fine with letting him go, too — but whenever I think "middle-of-the-order RHH mashers who can't play the field are easy enough to find," I also think of Jack Clark and Tom Brunansky.
 

sean1562

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As long as Mookie stays long term, Devers is NOT traded (and Bogey is NOT traded), I'm happy with this.

Hope JDM not opting-out doesn't make it more diffficult to keep Mookie
Of all the things that the FO could do this offseason, trading Xander would be the worst. The guy takes a somewhat team friendly deal because he loves Boston and then we ship him out bc that contract makes him such a valuable asset? I cant imagine they do that but it would be a really bad signal to send to any other player potentially interested in sticking with Boston long term.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Of all the things that the FO could do this offseason, trading Xander would be the worst. The guy takes a somewhat team friendly deal because he loves Boston and then we ship him out bc that contract makes him such a valuable asset? I cant imagine they do that but it would be a really bad signal to send to any other player potentially interested in sticking with Boston long term.
Have there been any rumblings about Bogaerts being traded?

Or is this just something that concerns you?
 

JBJ_HOF

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Counterpoint: trading Bogaerts now before his complete defensive collapse and his numbers come back to earth next year would be smart.
 

sean1562

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Have there been any rumblings about Bogaerts being traded?

Or is this just something that concerns you?
I guess more responding to that poster. I would understand trading Betts, JDM, or any of the pitchers. Baseball is a business and Mookie deserves to make all the money in the world. If he is no longer on the Sox after next year or this year, I wont really have any issue declaring Xander and Devers my new favorite Red Sox players and moving on.
 

nighthob

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Bye bye Mookie?
My guess is yes. They do need to re-set the clock if only to help out in rebuilding the farm system. The Dodgers seem a pretty good candidate given that they'd be able to satisfy the salary demands while having a really good system to help Boston find inexpensive talent to build around Devers and Bogaerts.
 

The Gray Eagle

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Chad Jennings at the Athletic already has an article out looking into whether they could trade JD now that he has opted in:
https://theathletic.com/1350731/2019/11/04/jennings-now-that-j-d-martinez-has-decided-to-stay-should-the-red-sox-explore-dealing-him/
Interesting paragraphs:
The White Sox have roughly $50 million in payroll commitments for 2020. In the past decade, they’ve shown a willingness to go well over $100 million. Hahn also has specifically cited both right field and designated hitter as targets for immediate improvement. Martinez could certainly fill the latter and could occasionally help out in the corners.

The White Sox also have talent to give. Their elite young players are surely off the table for a potential rental – no visions of Luis Robert or Nick Madrigal coming the Red Sox way – but the White Sox do have quite a few young starting pitchers who either underperformed or were hurt in 2019. Among them was 25-year-old Reynaldo Lopez, who became a source of frustration. Perhaps the Red Sox could find a way to get one of those pitchers involved to fill an immediate need. If not, the Red Sox could be satisfied with a lesser prospect or two, which would still be more return than they would have gotten if Martinez had opted out.
Lopez is cheap and has loads of potential, but he hasn't been good in the majors. He turns 26 in January.
 

Plympton91

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Chad Jennings at the Athletic already has an article out looking into whether they could trade JD now that he has opted in:
https://theathletic.com/1350731/2019/11/04/jennings-now-that-j-d-martinez-has-decided-to-stay-should-the-red-sox-explore-dealing-him/
Interesting paragraphs:


Lopez is cheap and has loads of potential, but he hasn't been good in the majors. He turns 26 in January.
Where are the White Sox generally considered to be in the analytics revolution? Lopez has had absolutely dominant games. That suggests a big breakout opportunity if his inconsistency is due to getting beaten by the IT Teams and not the batters per se.
 

chawson

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Reynaldo Lopez sits at 96 and has four years of control remaining. I hate to say it but that’d be a good deal. I fear the return would be something more like a paid-down Alex Colome.
 

sean1562

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Lopez was always seen as a likely reliever when he was with the nats because he has always had the same control issues. So maybe he could turn into a useful bullpen guy?
 

OurF'ingCity

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Lopez is cheap and has loads of potential, but he hasn't been good in the majors. He turns 26 in January.
To the extent they are trading JD, it is going to be almost completely for cost reasons, so I have to think the Sox would just take what they could get when it comes to a return for JD. Put another way, if the Sox were sitting there hoping JD was going to opt out, they can simply trade him now to arrive at the same outcome plus at least some kind of asset back in return.

I do note that according to Cot's at least, JD can block trades up to three teams annually. Unclear whether he has to set those teams in advance and, if so, when he has to do so.
 

bankshot1

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I wonder how deep the market is for Mookie (the # of teams willing to do 10/350 or whatever) and if its not deep, why would any one team be willing to trade anything close to fair value for the guy as a rental.

Trading Mookie, one of the best players in the game, just entering his prime, doesn't make sense to me. He's the guy you go the extra mile for and over pay for.
 

sean1562

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The problem is that we have already gone the extra mile and overpaid for other players on this team.